• Trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the US are set to continue on February 1 in Abu Dhabi, following constructive talks in late January.
  • Territorial control in eastern Ukraine remains the primary sticking point, with Russia demanding control of Donbas and Ukrainian officials expressing cautious optimism.
  • The talks involve senior negotiators, including Trump advisors, and could pave the way for direct meetings between Putin and Zelenskyy if progress is sustained.

Constructive Talks Amid Deep Divisions

Trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the US are set to continue on February 1 in Abu Dhabi, following the first substantive talks of this kind since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The January 23-24 talks in the UAE were characterized as "constructive" by both Ukrainian and U.S. officials, marking a significant diplomatic development in efforts to end the nearly four-year conflict. U.S. mediators reported that all pertinent issues were addressed during the two days of negotiations, including Russia's territorial claims in Donbas, the conflict at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and necessary de-escalation measures.

One U.S. official expressed notable optimism, remarking that "there was a moment when everyone appeared almost friendly" and expressing "a sense of hope." However, territorial control in eastern Ukraine remains the primary sticking point, according to people familiar with the matter. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated in Davos that negotiations are now down to "one issue," though he acknowledged this is "the most difficult" aspect. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the talks as addressing "the possible parameters for concluding the war" and noted that "the Donbas issue" is "key."

Russian Demands and Mediation Efforts

The Kremlin indicated that Russia will only accept an agreement that hands control of Donbas to Moscow, reiterating demands outlined during the Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage last summer. Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Russia remains "sincerely interested in resolving the Ukrainian crisis through political and diplomatic methods" but will continue military operations unless territorial demands are met. The talks involved senior negotiators from all three countries, including Trump advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Ukrainian national security adviser Rustam Umerov, and Russian military intelligence head Admiral Igor Kostyukov.

These negotiations represent President Trump's administration's central approach to achieving a ceasefire, with advisers expressing "considerable optimism" about navigating toward resolving the territorial control issue. It took several months for the White House to persuade both Russians and Ukrainians to engage in trilateral discussions, according to sources close to the process. U.S. officials indicated that further progress could pave the way for subsequent direct meetings between Putin and Zelenskyy—meetings not seen in years. One official stated: "If we maintain our current trajectory, we will reach that stage."

Outlook and Implications

While Ukrainian officials acknowledged "good progress," one noted uncertainty about whether Putin genuinely seeks to conclude the conflict and will authorize his negotiators to finalize an agreement, stating "It is premature to make a judgment." The conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties among Russian and Ukrainian forces, razed entire Ukrainian cities, and displaced over 5 million people according to the United Nations. The next negotiation round is scheduled for February 1 in Abu Dhabi. The trajectory of these talks will likely determine whether direct leader-to-leader meetings occur and whether a comprehensive peace agreement becomes feasible. However, deep disagreements remain over fundamental issues, particularly territorial control, with experts remaining skeptical about the possibility of an agreement in the near term.

This article was updated to clarify the timing of the next talks and include additional context on the negotiation dynamics.