• Trump open to trilateral nuclear arms reduction talks with Russia and China, aiming to curb global stockpiles.
  • Proposal includes potential halving of defense budgets if agreement reached, though geopolitical tensions pose hurdles.
  • China’s rapid nuclear expansion adds urgency, with analysts warning of near-parity within five years.

A Push for Nuclear Reduction

Former President Donald Trump would be willing to engage in negotiations with Russia and China to reduce nuclear arsenals globally, according to US Senator J.D. Vance. The proposal, which Trump has previously floated, also suggests significant cuts to defense spending—potentially by half—if a trilateral agreement can be secured.

Trump’s frustration with the current state of nuclear proliferation was evident in recent remarks, where he highlighted the risks of redundant arsenals and China’s accelerating buildup. "We’re sitting on a massive stockpile while China is catching up fast," a source familiar with Trump’s thinking said. "He sees an opportunity to reset the table."

Geopolitical Roadblocks

While the idea has drawn cautious optimism from arms control advocates, deep-seated tensions—particularly Russia’s war in Ukraine and strained US-China relations—complicate near-term prospects. Previous attempts during Trump’s first term to bring China into arms control talks failed, and Russia’s suspension of the New START treaty in 2022 further eroded trust.

China, which has historically resisted nuclear negotiations, now commands growing attention as its arsenal expands. "Without Beijing at the table, any agreement is incomplete," an unnamed European diplomat noted. Yet China’s reluctance to disclose its capabilities remains a sticking point.

Market and Strategic Implications

A successful deal could reshape defense budgets, freeing funds for domestic priorities while unsettling defense contractors reliant on nuclear modernization programs. However, skeptics question whether current hostilities allow for productive dialogue. "The window is narrow," said a former Pentagon official. "You’d need a ceasefire in Ukraine and a thaw with China—neither seems likely soon."

Analysts stress that even incremental steps toward talks could stabilize long-term strategic competition. But with New START expiring in 2026 and no successor in sight, the risk of unchecked proliferation looms larger.