• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal, unrestricted traffic, with Iran controlling transit and imposing safety requirements, according to UAE ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber.
  • An estimated 230 loaded tankers are waiting to depart, contributing to oil prices above $100 per barrel and forcing Gulf producers like ADNOC to trim output.
  • Iran has signaled long-term changes to Hormuz operations, warning that navigation will not revert to pre-war norms, citing security and wartime considerations.

Strait of Hormuz Still Shut with Iran Restricting Access

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with Iran restricting access and controlling transit, according to UAE oil chief Sultan Al Jaber. "Conditional passage is not passage—it's control," he said, calling for the strait to reopen fully and without restrictions. Since the Iran war began in late February, the blockade has halted the flow of oil and gas through the world's most critical shipping route. Iran has introduced supervised transit lanes, citing safety concerns like sea mines.

Around 230 loaded tankers are waiting to depart, while Gulf producers, including ADNOC, have been forced to cut output. Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel and remain elevated despite a tentative ceasefire. Efforts to normalize transit have hit a snag, with Iran asserting supervisory control over movements, effectively keeping the waterway highly restricted. According to people familiar with the matter, the UAE's energy leadership frames "conditional passage" as de facto control, urging unconditional access to stabilize global markets.

Iran has signaled that navigation will not revert to pre-war norms, emphasizing self-defense and security framing for its measures. Without a deal to reopen the strait fully, the region faces prolonged supply disruptions. ADNOC and other Gulf producers are grappling with output-management challenges due to infrastructure damage and the need to safeguard crews, potentially delaying planned production ramps. A spokesperson for ADNOC declined to comment further on operational specifics when reached.

Market implications are stark, with a significant share of global oil and gas transiting Hormuz, exerting upside pressure on crude prices and widening risk premia in energy markets. The Hormuz dispute sits at the intersection of wartime security, U.S.-Iran-Israel regional dynamics, and global energy security, affecting shipping corridors, insurance, and risk pricing for traders. In the short term, expect continued high vigilance around transit, potential limited openings with supervision, and ongoing price volatility as markets react to compliance signals.

Longer term, the trajectory depends on ceasefire clarity and diplomatic breakthroughs. If Iran's security calculus doesn't yield a reversible open transit regime, persistent risk premia could reshape Gulf energy flows and investment in alternative routes or storage capacity. This situation echoes past wartime disruptions where straits became chokepoints, underscoring the fragility of global supply chains.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of tankers waiting; it is approximately 230, not 250.