• A senior Gulf official tells CNN there's a 50:50 chance the US and Iran reach a deal by Friday, despite President Trump's optimism.
  • Iran denies direct talks with Washington, saying discussions are mediated by Oman on Strait of Hormuz navigation.
  • Reopening the waterway could pave the way for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and regional security.

Fragile Prospects

Negotiations between the US and Iran over a potential deal remain on a knife's edge, with a senior Gulf official telling CNN there is a 50:50 chance an agreement could be reached by Friday. President Trump, however, struck a more optimistic tone, saying talks were "progressing well," but he also warned that if Iran walks away, the US would strike "really hard."

Iran, for its part, continues to deny direct talks with Washington. According to Iranian officials, discussions are only taking place through Oman regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. A diplomat familiar with the matter said that reopening the waterway could serve as a confidence-building measure, potentially unlocking broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and regional security.

Mediation and Leverage

The complexity of the talks is underscored by the reliance on Omani mediation. "Iran is insisting on indirect channels," said a Gulf-based analyst. "They want to avoid any appearance of direct engagement with the US, especially given domestic political sensitivities."

Trump's threats appear designed to maintain pressure on Tehran. "We have the upper hand," he said in a recent interview. "If they don't play ball, we have other options."

Attempts to reach the Iranian mission to the UN for comment were unsuccessful.

What's at Stake

The potential deal is seen as a stepping stone to broader discussions. A senior European diplomat noted, "The first step is de-escalation in the Gulf. If we can secure freedom of navigation, it builds trust for more difficult conversations."

Yet, the 50:50 assessment from the Gulf official highlights the fragility of the process. "It could go either way," the official said. "The next 48 hours are critical."

As the deadline approaches, markets remain on edge, with oil prices fluctuating on news of the talks. Any breakdown could lead to heightened tensions in the region and potential supply disruptions.

Clarification: This article reflects the latest developments as of Wednesday morning. Negotiations are fluid, and terms may change.