• Talks between US and Iranian negotiators in Oman concluded on Friday without a deal, with disputes over ballistic missiles and proxy support stalling progress.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated discussions are "over for now," but provided no timeline for when negotiations might restart, leaving diplomatic efforts in limbo.
  • Escalating tensions risk disrupting global oil markets, as Iran—a major OPEC producer—faces potential US military action, which could spike prices and affect energy-dependent economies.

High-stakes indirect talks between US negotiators and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi began around 11 a.m. local time in Oman on February 6, 2026, after a brief cancellation earlier in the week. The discussions, facilitated by Oman as a neutral host, ended without agreement, reflecting Iran's weakened position following US-Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities in June 2025 and a recent deadly crackdown on anti-regime protests.

According to people familiar with the matter, the US delegation, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, demanded "zero nuclear capability," limits on ballistic missiles, and curbs on proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. In contrast, Iran insisted on focusing solely on nuclear issues, emphasizing its enrichment rights while offering potential flexibility, such as handing over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium. "Efforts to bridge these gaps have hit a snag," one source noted, adding that without a deal, the risk of military confrontation could escalate.

Iran's economy is strained by ongoing sanctions and recent setbacks, pushing the regime toward concessions. However, regional allies have helped mediate to stabilize trade routes, amid concerns that further disruptions could send oil prices soaring. The Trump administration views Iran at its weakest since 1979, leveraging military deployments like the USS Abraham Lincoln and additional warplanes to pressure for a broad agreement beyond the remnants of the 2025 JCPOA. "We're in a holding pattern," an anonymous US official said, highlighting the precarious nature of current diplomacy.

In a brief statement, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed the talks' conclusion but declined to specify when negotiations might resume, citing ongoing internal reviews. Attempts to reach US officials for comment were unsuccessful as of press time. The impasse comes as Israel monitors closely, having previously struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites, and amid massive protests in Iran that have drawn Trump's support for demonstrators, heightening domestic unrest.

Short-term, the risk of a US attack looms if talks do not restart, given Trump's warnings and military positioning. Experts predict the US will continue pushing for broader curbs, while Iran may offer limited concessions insufficient for a breakthrough. For now, stakeholders—including US allies fearing war spillover and Iranian hardliners opposing concessions—await the next move, with global markets on edge over potential energy shocks.