• Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran on Iran's nuclear program have restarted in Oman, marking the first such talks since the Israel-Iran war in June 2025.
  • The talks face a significant rift, with the US pushing to include discussions on Iran's ballistic missiles, proxy support, and human rights, while Iran insists on focusing solely on nuclear issues and maintaining non-negotiable uranium enrichment rights.
  • Rising military tensions, including a US naval buildup and Iran's pre-talks missile deployment, threaten to disrupt Persian Gulf oil flows, potentially spiking global energy prices if talks stall.

A Delicate Diplomatic Dance

Indirect US-Iran talks on Iran's nuclear program began in Oman on Friday, mediated by Omani officials, marking the first such negotiations since a 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025. According to people familiar with the matter, the discussions started around 11 a.m. local time after a brief delay, with a second round occurring involving separate meetings between Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The atmosphere remains tense, as Iran deployed advanced missiles pre-talks as a show of strength, while the US has bolstered its naval presence in the region with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group.

Efforts to bridge the agenda gap have hit a snag, with Oman shuttling proposals between sides during a pause for consultations with capitals. Iran has offered some flexibility, such as proposals to hand over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium or pursue zero enrichment under a consortium, but sources indicate these are contingent on nuclear-only discussions. Without a deal, the risk of military escalation looms large, potentially derailing fragile economic recoveries in the region. In a statement on X, Araghchi stressed the need for "mutual respect," though US officials have not publicly commented on the specifics.

Economic Stakes and Regional Fallout

The talks unfold against a backdrop of severe economic pressure on Iran, where sanctions continue to bite its theocracy despite a post-war halt in uranium enrichment that has slowed its nuclear program. Rising tensions risk disrupting Persian Gulf oil flows, with analysts warning that any spike in global energy prices could ripple through markets already jittery from recent conflicts. No direct company is involved in the negotiations, but stakeholders include Iranian dissidents hoping for relief from sanctions, regional proxies losing support, and Gulf states wary of crossfire, according to experts.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio views Iran as at its weakest since the 1979 Revolution after a bloody protest crackdown last month that rights groups say left thousands dead, fueling US leverage in the talks. However, Iran warns of harsh retaliation against the US, Israel, and Gulf hosts if pressured, with former President Trump threatening strikes and retaining "many options" per his recent statements. The historical context stems from collapsed prior diplomacy, with these talks being the first since Iran fired hundreds of missiles at Israel in June 2025, killing 32 people, and Israel targeted Iran's nuclear sites and leadership in response.

Short-term, the agenda rift over missiles is likely to stall progress, raising the odds of military conflict, as noted by experts like Edmund Fitton-Brown. Long-term, a potential deal could avert war if Iran concedes on nuclear issues, but the path remains fraught with uncertainty. Oman's mediation comes amid offers from others like Türkiye, though no major public reactions have been reported yet. Attempts to reach out for further comment from involved parties were unsuccessful at press time.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the talks; they began on Friday, not Thursday.