• Indirect negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials are set for Friday in Oman, marking the first diplomatic engagement since talks collapsed and a 12-day conflict in June 2025.
  • Iran insists discussions focus solely on its nuclear program, rejecting U.S. demands to include ballistic missiles and regional proxy activity, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls essential for progress.
  • The talks occur amid rising military tensions, including a recent drone incident near the USS Abraham Lincoln, with analysts skeptical a deal can be reached given Iran's historical inflexibility on key issues.

U.S. and Iranian officials are preparing for indirect nuclear negotiations in Oman on Friday, though significant disagreements persist over the scope and format of discussions, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks represent the first diplomatic engagement between the two sides since negotiations collapsed and a 12-day conflict occurred in June 2025, moving from Turkey to Oman after Iran threatened to withdraw.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to participate, along with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's adviser Jared Kushner, with foreign ministers from Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan also anticipated to attend. Efforts to restructure the diplomatic framework have hit a snag, as Iran insists that discussions focus solely on its nuclear program, while the United States wants negotiations to include Iran's ballistic missile program and regional proxy activity. The U.S. has demanded that Iran permanently halt uranium enrichment, limit its ballistic missile program, and end support for the Axis of Resistance as preconditions for negotiations, a stance Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected.

Without a deal, tensions could escalate further, potentially leading to renewed conflict. The talks occur amid rising military tensions, including a recent drone incident near the USS Abraham Lincoln that prompted American officials to express serious doubts about Tehran's intentions. Despite public threats by Iranian officials to withdraw, the White House maintains that negotiations remain on track, though Israeli and U.S. assessments remain skeptical that a deal can be reached. A U.S. official stated that the upcoming meeting aims to formulate a comprehensive agreement to prevent war, with hopes that Iran will arrive prepared to make essential concessions.

Iran's willingness to engage appears driven by efforts to delay or prevent a U.S. military attack, following a pattern from spring 2025 when Iran previously pursued negotiations for similar purposes. President Trump has reportedly considered walking away from talks following recent naval confrontations, though he ultimately decided to continue negotiations. Some analysts believe Iranian hardliners are attempting to undermine the negotiations by escalating tensions, betting that Trump is now unlikely to launch major military strikes. Iran is assessed as unlikely to accept Trump's demand for zero uranium enrichment, though the regime might agree to reduce enrichment levels, according to sources close to the discussions.

A fourth source familiar with planning noted that a Friday meeting is "the best case scenario" but cautioned that nothing is final until it occurs. The outcome will largely depend on whether Iran demonstrates willingness to compromise on issues beyond the nuclear program, particularly regarding ballistic missiles and regional activities—areas where the regime has shown historical inflexibility. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for additional comment were unsuccessful as of Thursday evening.