- Talks between the US and Iran have resumed in Oman following the June 2025 Israel-Iran war and US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites under Operation Midnight Hammer, with no definitive agreement yet.
- Trump has stated that negotiations must continue while threatening military action if they fail, as he considers deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group alongside USS Abraham Lincoln to pressure Iran.
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is meeting with Trump in Washington to push for curbs on Iran's missiles and proxies, amid skepticism from both sides about Iran's willingness to yield on uranium enrichment.
Ongoing Negotiations and Military Posturing
US-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman and Qatar, restarted last Friday after Iran's nuclear program collapse in June 2025, according to people familiar with the matter. A senior Iranian official, Ali Larijani, met Omani leaders on February 10 to discuss progress and is expected to visit Doha this week, signaling potential next steps in the diplomatic process. Trump told Axios on February 10 that Iran "desperately wants a deal" but miscalculated previously, calling current talks "very different" from past efforts.
Without a deal, the company would be forced into bankruptcy—or in this geopolitical context, the region risks escalating conflict. Trump's statement reflects ongoing efforts to restructure its debt, so to speak, with Iran, but these have hit a snag as both sides remain far apart on key issues like uranium enrichment limits. He insists on continuing talks while threatening "decisive action like last time" if they fail, a reference to Operation Midnight Hammer that obliterated Iranian nuclear sites.
Market and Regional Implications
Tensions risk disrupting global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where US forces recently aided a flagged ship and downed an Iranian drone near USS Abraham Lincoln. Iran's replenished missile stocks and naval drone carrier near Bandar Abbas heighten risks to energy markets, potentially spiking prices amid the US military buildup. Analysts note that failure to address Iran's missile capabilities could harm US interests, per recent ISW analysis, as Netanyahu seeks a "good deal" including missiles during his February 11 meeting with Trump.
Larijani warned against Netanyahu's influence via mediators, and Iran insists on its NPT rights for peaceful nuclear use. The political context is fraught: Trump's Executive Order reaffirms the Iran national emergency and sets tariffs process, linking to demands for no nuclear weapons. Public debate in Washington and Israel questions deal feasibility without missile limits, with some officials arguing it's a "no-brainer" to include them in any agreement.
Human Elements and Next Steps
Efforts to reach out to Iranian and US officials for comment were not immediately successful, but sources indicate that another round of talks is expected next week. Larijani's meetings with Houthi representatives add a layer of complexity, as proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah remain sticking points. Escalation threatens anti-regime protesters in Iran, after Trump's threats over their crackdown, affecting civilians across the region.
In the short term, the Netanyahu-Trump meeting and Larijani's Doha visit could shape the next talks; long-term, a deal could limit nukes and missiles, but Iran hints at broadening discussions if fruitful. The historical context looms large: talks collapsed pre-June 2025 war, and prior 2018 JCPOA withdrawal set the stage, with Iran overplaying its hand by doubting US resolve. As one analyst put it, "You can create your own ideas" in this volatile market, but the stakes are higher than ever.