• US-Iran nuclear negotiations, initially thrown into doubt, are scheduled for Friday in Muscat, Oman, following lobbying by Arab leaders.
  • President Trump warned that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei "should be very worried" and threatened further strikes if Iran continues rebuilding its nuclear program.
  • The talks focus narrowly on nuclear issues, with the US pushing for a comprehensive deal covering missiles and proxies, while Iran faces economic pressure from sanctions.

US-Iran nuclear talks, which had been in flux, are now back on track for Friday in Muscat, Oman, according to people familiar with the matter. This shift comes after Arab leaders lobbied to avert a broader conflict, highlighting regional economic stability concerns. The negotiations moved from a multilateral format in Istanbul to a bilateral setting at Iran's insistence, narrowing the scope to nuclear issues despite US demands to include ballistic missiles, support for terrorism, and human rights.

President Trump stated that Iran is negotiating with the US after attempting to rebuild its nuclear program at new sites following US strikes, which he claimed largely obliterated it, though the locations of some enriched uranium remain unknown. In a recent statement, Trump warned, "Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei should be very worried," and threatened further strikes if rebuilding continues. This sets a tense backdrop for the talks, with US officials expressing skepticism about reaching a deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that a comprehensive agreement is needed but noted doubts about Iran's willingness, saying, "We're prioritizing diplomacy to honor our allies, but we're ready for alternatives if Iran stalls."

Iran's economic woes, including protests over quality of life, stem from resources diverted to terrorism and missiles rather than domestic needs, per Rubio. Talks could ease sanctions if successful, but failure risks escalation impacting global oil prices via tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Regional leaders fear military intervention, which could disrupt Middle East economic stability. In recent incidents, Iranian forces have harassed US vessels, and a drone was downed, adding to the volatility. Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who warned of Iranian bad faith; Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Qatar then Oman, according to sources.

The US insists on an "all or nothing" approach covering nuclear enrichment—demanding no domestic uranium enrichment and export of stockpiles—missiles, proxies, and repression. Iran views missiles as a red line and limits the scope to nuclear talks. This deadlock echoes past tensions, such as Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign and the JCPOA withdrawal. Short-term, there's a risk of breakdown leading to military action; long-term, it could mean a comprehensive curb on Iran's programs or renewed escalation. As talks proceed, market watchers are eyeing oil futures, with Brent crude showing slight upticks amid the uncertainty. Corrections: An earlier version misstated the timing of the talks; they are set for Friday morning local time in Oman.