• A US-Israeli air attack destroyed the Assembly of Experts office building in Qom on or around March 3, 2026, targeting Iran's leadership infrastructure.
  • The strike is part of an escalating campaign following the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with 49 senior leaders eliminated in initial "Operation Epic Fury" strikes.
  • Iran's threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz could spike global oil prices to $200/barrel, disrupting 20% of world oil transit amid broader market volatility.

Escalating Strikes Target Regime Control

US-Israeli forces struck the Assembly of Experts office building in Qom, south of Tehran, on or around March 3, 2026, according to Iranian news agencies. This attack aligns with broader strikes on internal security targets like IRGC bases and missile sites near Qom, aimed at degrading regime control and supporting regime change objectives. The campaign has intensified since the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which sparked a leadership crisis under Article 111 of Iran's constitution.

Strikes continued on March 1, hitting a missile base north of Qom storing Ghadr ballistic missiles, IRGC Aerospace Force sites, and Basij bases involved in prior protest suppression. In response, Iran has retaliated with attacks on US and allied bases in Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and the Gulf, while threatening disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. US officials confirmed that 49 senior leaders were eliminated in the initial "Operation Epic Fury" strikes, as efforts to restructure Iran's political hierarchy have hit a snag.

Economic Fallout and Market Implications

Iran's threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and attack regional oil infrastructure could send global oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel, disrupting approximately 20% of the world's oil transit. This escalates the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, with US CENTCOM noting that Iran's naval presence in the Gulf of Oman has reduced from 11 to zero ships, according to people familiar with the matter. Without a deal to de-escalate, the region faces heightened risks of supply chain interruptions.

In the short term, market analysts are bracing for volatility as Iranian officials vow a "most devastating" offensive via missiles and drones on US and Israeli targets. Coordination issues may hinder large-scale retaliation, but the uncertainty is already affecting energy futures. A senior trader at a major commodities firm, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, said, "We're seeing panic buying in some sectors, but the full impact depends on whether Iran can follow through on its Hormuz threats."

Political and Security Ramifications

An interim leadership council—comprising the president, judiciary chief, and a senior cleric—has assumed supreme leader duties per Iran's constitution amid the succession crisis, which has killed over 40 officials. The IRGC is demanding swift permanent leader selection, with informal influence from commanders, Qom clerics, and figures like Hassan Khomeini. US officials frame their actions as countering 47 years of Iranian terrorism, while the IDF pursues a three-phase air superiority plan over western and central Iran, mirroring tactics from the June 2025 Israel-Iran War that degraded nuclear and missile programs.

Degradation of security forces may weaken suppression of unrest, fueling protests like the December 2025-January 2026 movement and 2026 Iranian diaspora actions. Pro-Iranian protests and attacks on US sites, such as the Karachi consulate, reflect polarized reactions. Stakeholders include weakened IRGC and regime elites, potentially empowered protesters, and regional allies facing Iranian retaliation. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful as of press time.

Outlook and Regional Dynamics

In the long term, air superiority could enable regime toppling, potential unrest, or a new leader stabilizing IRGC control. Experts note that the IDF's phased approach positions forces for a potential advance on Tehran. Related developments include likely hits on the parliament building in Tehran strikes, an Iranian drone hitting a UAE naval base, fires at Kuwait's Ali al Salem base, and regional escalations involving Hezbollah-Israel clashes and the sinking of IRIS Jamaran. US buildup in the Middle East preceded these events, setting the stage for continued volatility.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the date of the initial strikes; they began on March 1, not February 28.