Unknown Executive
Thank you, Rendani. So I'm [ Roy Campbell.
] I have just recently joined Aspen Pharmacare in Investor Relations. I'm working very closely with Sanelisiwe and the management team.
It's been an exciting journey so far, and I do look forward into the future and looking forward to interacting with many of you as I have done over the years. Firstly, to Rendani, thank you for hosting us today at your health care conference, and we, at Aspen, wish you all the best over the next couple of days.
So today, we are presenting first half 2026 results. Mr.
Stephen Saad will take us through the period under review. Sean Capazorio will take us through the financial highlights and Stephen then will go over the group strategy and the outlook.
We'll be taking questions from both the floor and over the webcast. So please submit them if you want, and please just introduce yourself as you do.
And I know that we'll be seeing a number of you over the next couple of days, but please feel free to get in touch if there's anything that you want to discuss. So with that, I'm going to welcome Mr.
Stephen Saad. Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Saad
Thank you, Roy. Good morning, everyone.
Good to be here in queue. It's amazing what can change in less than a year.
Sometimes you -- sometimes you need the dockers moments to give us some proper introspection and to shape the -- and reset where you are and where you're going to. And just to remind you, in terms of our reset, there were really 3 areas that we looked at.
The first was -- and the hardest thing about introspection is being honest. It's the biggest -- it's -- but it doesn't work unless you're incredibly honest with yourself.
And so when we looked at our business and where we were, there were really, I think, 3 things that we could see here. Firstly, we have a commercial pharmaceutical business that we've run for nearly 3 decades, and it's a great business, and it's grown almost in every single year.
And it's a relevant business because the volumes also grow. And that there is a requirement for quality medicines in emerging markets, I think, is a well-understood concept and we're well positioned there.
And together with that, we had made big investments -- and have made big investments in GLP-1s, which we thought was going to be a big growth area, and we -- and that, together with the base business that we understand well was -- gave us a clear indication that we need to keep doing more of what we do in commercial pharma and to make sure the GLP-1s become additive. We looked at our Manufacturing business, and we've got great assets.
But somehow, we just seem to stumble across one macro issue after another. And whether -- this time last year, it was tariffs -- tariffs, loss contract, more tariffs, tariffs go away, tariffs could come back now depending upon how things work.
So it's a tricky macro environment before that we battled in a regulatory environment. We also battled with COVID.
COVID was going to be this big and every [indiscernible] company was going to pass billions of dollars and it came and went. And at a point, you've got to stop saying we've been a little unlucky and our luck will change.
I think you need to take matters into your own hands. And it's a painful decision, but you need matters in your own hand means let's get the thing profitable and let's play what we can see in front of us.
Let's just do what we can see in front of us. And you'll see a bit of that in the presentation today.
And then the final area was dealing with the sum of parts of Aspen. I've never really dealt in those issues with shareholders, but the disjunct between the underlying value of the assets and the share price was so apparent that I felt I had to bring it up to shareholders, which I did in the last presentation.
And so we had to think about it and say, well, how do we unlock this value? And to have an underpriced share and to have a whole lot of debt, didn't make a whole lot of sense to us.
And we're waiting for the shareholder approval. But by May, we hope that this transaction will be approved.
And what it does do is it pins a value at an EBITDA level on what we've been telling you that we thought the value of the shares were and the type of multiples that the business in commercial pharma deserves. And it also gives us financial flexibility.
It seems crazy to push through this and to push it and carry debt -- to carry debt through this whole process with an undervalued share. So I think what -- where we get to, hopefully, by the end of May, the approvals is that you have a business that has no debt, has never asked shareholders for a share issue and makes a ton of profit.
And I don't know how all the formulas work on returns, but to me it seems like an incredible return. There's no money hospital either funders or from your shareholders.
So I'll start with that. Sorry, I jump around a bit and some talk of a little subject.
And I'll go straight into the presentation. In the presentation, I just -- I'm going to cover the performance under review and just take you through our key -- what we're trying to do and what came out of our previous one.
We really want to sustain and accelerate our earnings growth drivers. And we believe there's some big earnings growth drivers in the business.
As I said, in commercial pharma, we've got a sustainable base business, and we've got a GLP-1 rollout in manufacturing. I remind you, we've got a chemical business and a sterile business.
So any profitability that you see above minus ZAR 1.7 billion is coming out of the API business. Our sterile business is losing money, and we'll talk about how we reshape it and the contracts that are coming in, how they come on and how we commercialize them.
So we'll talk about that. And you will see at the end of this, we've got some very strong earnings growth momentum ahead.
In terms of the other part was the sum of parts was to unlock -- to unlock the sum of parts and to also now focus very strongly on free cash flow. What is free cash flow?
Well, Aspen has always had very strong operating cash flows. But then we spent a lot of money on buying assets or building assets and CapEx, and that's impacted our free cash flows.
We're in a different cycle now with declining capital expenditure, reduced working capital as we built all of these assets, and we've got earnings -- increased earnings. And so Sean will take you through the triggers for free cash flow.
In terms of sum of parts, as I said to you at the beginning, we want to show you value. We want to unlock value for shareholders.
We absolutely declare that even at current valuations, this -- the business is not getting the valuations. It could, and I understand this confusion because if you make a 101 division and minus 10 and another, then you place a multiple on the 90.
In our opinion, the minus 10 is not something that should be of a negative value attached to it. And so -- and we also think it under-appreciates the value of the brand and emerging markets.
And you'll see the relative growth of our emerging markets relative to our developed markets, for example, like Australia. For the period under review, just to remind you, last year, we had really good earnings momentum in commercial pharma.
We had double-digit growth in constant currency, and we expect to sustain that growth into this period and into -- for this year. You'll see that the GLP-1s -- the growth is now becoming evident in our numbers, and it should be increasingly -- it become an increasing share of the Aspen business from here on in.
We've managed to get expanded indications on Mounjaro and the KwikPen. So those were quite big add-ons to the product, which have accelerated the growth of the product in the South African market.
A reshape is always difficult. But we've done 90% of the reshape.
It's never certain until it's done, but we've -- you can see from the restructuring expenses in this half that, that the majority of it is done. We started the insulin contract in South Africa, and we expect the approval from the regulator in March, but our contract is not with the regulator.
It's with the buyer of the product, the owner of the IP. And so our contract with them has started.
We had the contract dispute. I'm happy to say it's closed, and it really is the last period that will negatively impact earnings, and Sean will take you through the swing around in earnings in H2 as a result of having this out of the system.
The rand has been incredibly strong from an Aspen perspective in rand results. The relative performance of the rand against our basket of currencies has quite a big impact on how we perform.
I mean, assuming it shifts as much as it has in the past. And the rand, even if I go back 5 years, it was stronger today against Australian dollar than it was and the euro than it was 5 years ago.
So the rand has been really, really strong for us, and it obviously impacts our results, and Sean will take you through the free cash flows. So that's all I've got to say about performance for now.
I'll come back and talk about strategy, but I'm going to get Sean up here, who's to take you through the next part of the presentation, the financial portion. Welcome, Sean.
Sean Capazorio
Thank you, Stephen. So nice to speak to real people.
The last presentation, we spoke to a screen and a couple of people. We had to pay them to come and watch us, but they're happily obliged.
But nice to see you all, and thank you for coming. Really appreciate the efforts to be live and also welcome to all the people online.
Yes, I'm very pleased to take you through these financial highlights. And as Aspen, we remain absolutely focused on executing on those strategic priorities that Stephen spoke about at the start and with a razor focus on unlocking the sum of the parts value that underpins our investment case.
So those are real drivers going forward. If we then get to the financial highlights in this first chart, I've got 3 bars, the one talking to revenue, normalized EBITDA and on the far right, normalized headline earnings.
So if I start with revenue, we ended the period with revenue of around ZAR 21 billion, 4% down relative to the prior year. If you sort of look and we'll cover the detail a little bit later, but commercial pharma had solid growth for this half and the decline in the revenue was driven by the Manufacturing segment with the loss of the mRNA contract that Stephen spoke about earlier.
If we then look fast forward to the middle graph, which is our normalized EBITDA, we came in there at just over ZAR 5 billion, a 13% drop versus last year's ZAR 5.8 billion. Again, looking under the hood, Commercial Pharma had positive double-digit EBITDA growth, and that decline was driven by the decline in the manufacturing segment.
And interestingly, I think you might have read it in our commentary, if you take that ZAR 5.8 billion from last year, the full year EBITDA last year was ZAR 9.6 billion. So we did ZAR 3.8 billion in the second half.
And so that's really underpinning our guidance for a strong second half for H2 '26 compared to the ZAR 3.8 billion, and we've done ZAR 5.1 billion compared to the ZAR 3.8 billion in H2 2025. So we're very confident of driving a strong second half performance in our business.
And so we're very happy that we're going to have a very positive offset in H2 and end the year with positive growth in EBITDA and all the other metrics. Looking to the right on our normalized headline earnings, we ended the half year at ZAR 5.75, 21% down on the prior year ZAR 7.24.
I sound like a stuck record, but again, the main driver of this was the loss of the contract. You'll also want to know why we're sitting at minus 21% here and 13% on EBITDA, why is the gap bigger?
Well, this is really a mathematical problem because if you look at our depreciation, our amortization, our finance costs, our tax costs, they're all relatively flat to the prior year. So effectively, your EBITDA gap in absolute terms falls all the way through down to earnings and obviously has a bigger impact on percentage decline when you look at it on a percentage of earnings.
The positive to that is, obviously, in the second half of the year when we have a positive delta to EBITDA, which will then translate to an expected full year delta positive to EBITDA, you're going to have the reverse effect where you're going to see good EBITDA growth, but even stronger, and we have guided double-digit normalized earnings growth because of the fact that all of the other metrics below EBITDA are relatively flat or lower than the prior year. This is probably my favorite slide.
And I know it's something that we've been putting a lot of focus on. We've had a lot of years of investment, and I think we're now in a cycle of generating strong positive free cash flow.
So if we look at the gray shaded bars on the left, my left, that should be your left too, of the screen. I'll just explain the graph, but the light blue one is the cash that we generate from operations.
The dark blue is our CapEx spend and the other different color blue is the net -- is the residual balance, which is our free cash flow. So if we look to the first bars there of financial year '25, we generated just over ZAR 5 billion of cash from operations, but you can see we spent just under ZAR 5 billion on CapEx and very little free cash flow, about ZAR 166 million of free cash flow in FY '25.
If you go back to the half year last year when we were talking free cash flow, we generated ZAR 1.8 billion of cash from operations, but we spent ZAR 2.6 billion. So we actually had a negative ZAR 0.8 billion of free cash flow last year.
Fast forward into this year, we've generated a very, very strong cash flow from operations of ZAR 3.6 billion. You can see quite a significant increase of that ZAR 3.6 billion when you compare it to the ZAR 1.8 billion.
And that's notwithstanding that our EBITDA is 13% lower than last year. We've generated more cash.
So cash has really been a key driver and focus for us. What are the key things underpinning that cash growth?
It's obviously a much lower investment in working capital. We've also reduced our finance cost in cash terms.
And we've also managed our tax very, very closely and managed our provisional and tax payments to optimize those as well in compliance with law. So we take all of those together, that's what's driven that big increase in the cash flow from operations.
On top of that, we've spent ZAR 1 billion less in CapEx. So last year, we spent ZAR 2.6 billion in the half, down to ZAR 1.6 billion this half.
So if you take the combination of those 2, we end up generating just under ZAR 2 billion of free cash flow for the half. So a really good achievement.
And I know that's something that everybody has been looking for Aspen to start driving. What are the benefits of driving the strong free cash flow?
If you go to the right and look at our net debt, and we're also being honest with ourselves, we put the net debt there in accounting terms, and we also put the constant exchange rate net debt so that we don't take the credit for exchange rate movements. But if you look at the net debt, we ended the year -- half year ZAR 28.6 billion.
That's down from ZAR 31.2 billion in June 2025. If you had to look at the June '25 and CER, it's around ZAR 30 billion.
So even with the exchange rate out, we've generated a reduction in debt of -- from the ZAR 30 billion down to the ZAR 28.6 billion. And that also includes having funded a dividend of ZAR 0.9 billion in this half as well.
So that's a really good achievement for us. That culminated us ending with a leverage ratio of 3.4x and so slightly elevated from FY '25.
I've obviously got some slides later on to talk about the APAC divestment, but this -- you won't see much in this bar when we talk to our full year results, assuming that we get completion of the APAC divestment. So this net debt will be pretty much eliminated and we'll certainly -- we'll talk about it in later slides.
This -- if I flip to the next slide, I've got the light blue shaded area on the left is our commercial pharma business and the gray shaded area is our manufacturing business. So if we look to the left first, commercial pharma, I've got a revenue bars and EBITDA bars comparing to the prior half.
And I'm going to talk CER in this chart because CER is what we measure ourselves on. And so if we look at revenue, a solid 4% growth in revenue for commercial pharma constant exchange rate.
If you then look to the right, that 4% revenue growth translates to an 11% growth in constant exchange rate EBITDA growing from up to ZAR 4.8 billion. A key driver of that is, and I think we spoke about this in our previous results, our reshaped business in China, where if you remember, we had quite a lot of expenses when we did the combination of the Sandoz and the Aspen business.
And we did guide that we went through a large reshaping process in China last year, and this is the year we get the benefit of that in both the first half and the second half. So that expense saving is a big driver of the EBITDA growth.
And underlying that, I know we take it for granted at Aspen, but it's a real achievement is our gross profit margins in our commercial pharma business remained very, very stable. So with the leverage of expense savings and a stable gross margin, you get the increase in your EBITDA growth.
And you can see that our EBITDA margin has grown from 28.3%, which is the in the shaded block there on the left, increasing to a healthy 29.2% EBITDA to sales ratio for this half. And we are very comfortable that's a very stable position that we can continue to drive going forward.
On the right-hand side, on the manufacturing, turnover is down 26% in CER and EBITDA down 85%. Again, all impacted by the loss of the mRNA contract.
If you look at the EBITDA, we ended the last year half at just under ZAR 1.3 billion. And this year, we're coming in at ZAR 0.2 billion.
If you remember, last year, we had the benefit of that contract was around ZAR 1.5 billion, and we also then got the settlement that Stephen spoke about in his slide about ZAR 500 million. So if you net those 2, it's around ZAR 1 billion drop, and that's pretty much what you're seeing in the reduction in our EBITDA in this half one.
And just bear in mind that this is the last half of the impact of this contract, and we will see positive growth going forward. Looking to our group revenue, just to unpack some of the elements there.
So this chart, what it does is it shows our commercial pharma revenue and our manufacturing revenue and then our group revenue comparing the half 1 '26 to the half 1 '25. So if I look at the commercial pharma first, you can see, and I think we've covered this in the previous slide, a nice growth of 4% in the green block.
And then underneath that, those are all 3 of our segments, prescription, OTC and injectables. You can see all in constant exchange rate all showing positive growth.
Obviously, the standout performer there is the injectables at 7%, and that is driven by the very strong demand that we've had for Mounjaro and the other OTC is showing a very healthy growth and prescription also coming in there with 2% growth. So overall, we're very comfortable with the commercial pharma growth for the half.
I did put FYI, if you take the Asia Pacific region out of our sales growth and you just look at our business without APAC, that growth goes from 4% to 5% because APAC had a slightly negative revenue growth in the first half of around 2%, I think. Manufacturing, again, down 26%, which then impacts the group revenue going down by 4%, and that's all impacted and affected by the loss of that contract in this half.
I think then moving on to -- I'll just explain this table because it is quite a busy table. This is our group EBITDA slide.
So in the dark blue, we're comparing -- we're showing our income statement of revenue and gross profit right down to normalized EBITDA, and we're comparing half 1 '26 to half 1 '25, and we've got the ratios to revenue next to each of those blocks, and then we talk to the percentage reported in constant exchange rate. On the far right, there's a separate block there, and that's the FY '25 full year numbers.
And you'll see -- I just wanted to put those down so that you can then compare H1 '25 to FY '25, and you can quite easily see that's the ZAR 3.8 billion that we generated last year in the second half and gives you a sense of what growth we're going to drive in our second half of FY '26. So talking to the revenue first, I think we've covered that with a 4% decline in revenue driven by the manufacturing offsetting the commercial pharma.
Coming down to gross profit margin, you'll see our gross profit margin for the group has dropped from 47.6% to 45.4%, a drop of 7% in constant exchange rate. Again, if you look at the underlying gross margins, commercial pharma has stayed very steady at a gross margin of 58.5% and that dilution in the group gross margin is driven predominantly by manufacturing.
Pleasingly, if we go down to the expense level, we ended the half with expenses of just under ZAR 5.3 billion. Last year, our expense base was just around ZAR 5.4 billion, so a 2% reduction in expenses.
I just wanted to point out that the expenses for Aspen, these are mainly for our commercial pharma business because most of your manufacturing expenses sit in cost of sales, not in expenses. So that drop of 2% there is what's driving the commercial pharma EBITDA margin growth.
Obviously, when you put the total business together because of the manufacturing revenue decline, the group expense ratio does -- is elevated up a bit from 24.5% to 25%, but that's just because of the manufacturing revenue decline. Then looking at normalized EBITDA, there, we've ended the half at just under ZAR 5.1 billion, ZAR 5,053 million, an EBITDA percentage of 24%.
That's down on last year's EBITDA percentage of 26.5% and last year's EBITDA of ZAR 5.8 billion. If we look at the sort of moving parts there, again, commercial pharma, if you remember from the very -- that slide I took you through on commercial pharma, they've had a very good increase in EBITDA margin and ending at 29.2%.
And as I've said, we remain confident for that going forward. And the drop in the EBITDA margin is driven by the drop in the manufacturing EBITDA.
What I'd like to alert you to is if you look at the far right and you look at FY '25 full year EBITDA margin, last year, we ended the year at 22%. So we're already above last year's full year EBITDA margin with more growth to come in that margin in the second half as manufacturing lifts in the second half and commercial pharma continues to perform consistently.
So those are all the metrics that underpin our guidance for strong double-digit EBITDA growth in H2 relative to the prior year half. Just moving to a different topic now, and I'm talking now around tax rates.
You might say, why do I talk about tax rates? Well, for Aspen tax, we respect tax because tax is only expense that falls all the way through down to earnings.
So if you don't manage your tax, -- it affects your -- not just your pretax number, it affects your whole income statement. So it's not like an operating expense where you get a tax shield, tax falls all the way through.
So we've paid a lot of respect and we watch it very carefully and making sure we're compliant, but at the same time, making sure we manage it in the most optimal way. What this graph does below, it looks at our normalized effective group tax rates from FY '24 to -- going through to FY '25 and then H1 '26.
You'll note, and I'll take you through the 2 different bars in a minute, but you'll note there is quite a stepped increase from '24 to '25 and that is a result of the global minimum tax legislation that we took you through in our previous results. And obviously, that's now embedded in our base tax rates.
So that's the driver of tax increases from '24 to '25. What we've also done in this chart is we've shown you the tax rate for total operations, which is the sort of the 22% and the 22.2% for H1 '26.
So you can see our tax rate is relatively constant this half versus prior year. And then what we've also done is stripped out the APAC business and what is our continuing operations tax rate, and you'll see that jumps up to 22.7% in '25 and 22.8%.
So again, stable year-on-year, but a slight uptick, and that's sort of where we think our tax rate will stabilize going forward, obviously, dependent on profit mix and how this global minimum tax is actually implemented when it gets to paying out the actual tax. I think that's all on the tax rate.
I think then I'd like to just talk to you about the Aspen APAC divestment and an update there. Just a health warning that these dates I've put you are indicative only, but they are our best guess on what we know at the moment.
And I think these dates are pretty consistent to what we presented when we had our call with all of you, I think, in -- sure, it feels like a year ago, but I think it was in January sometime. And so based on all our time lines, we expect to publish a circular to shareholders by the -- on or before 20th of March, which means then we'll have the shareholder vote on or before 22 April.
And based on the contract, that will give us a completion date for the contract of end of May, and that's when we'll get the cash -- the initial proceeds from this transaction. And then there will be a 2- or 3-month period where we will have some true-ups of working capital and all the other adjustments.
But the big cash flows will happen at the end of May based on these time lines. Looking -- for those of you who have got a bit of an accounting affiliation, the APAC divestment meets what we call IFRS 5 accounting rules.
So what does IFRS 5 say? It says if your business segment is material and it has a high probability of being sold, you have to classify it as a discontinued operation.
So when you look at our results, you'll see that we've got continued and discontinued split all over the place. So it's quite hard, I think, when you look at those results with a cold eye.
And so you'll notice in our commentary, we've put a total operations table there just to help you sort of navigate the old, let's call it, the total operations numbers to the continuing and discontinued operations. I think the important point here is that the balance sheet has been stripped down.
So when you look at the balance sheet for Aspen for the half, -- you're going to see our intellectual property going down quite heavily, and that's probably the main one going down because the APAC business had -- it was quite rich in intellectual property value. And all of the APAC value is now sitting in one line called assets held for sale and the net book value sitting there is ZAR 21.8 billion, just under ZAR 22 billion.
From a financial effect perspective, the gross consideration for this deal is AUD 237 million. In December, we guided in rands that to be -- just under ZAR 26.5 billion.
That was at an exchange rate of, I think, ZAR 11.05 to the Aussie dollar. As we sit now, if you look at today's exchange rate, we could be well north of ZAR 27 billion plus.
So it depends on where exchange rates go, we do -- there is -- there could be a benefit from exchange rate, but we'll wait and see. From a net proceeds perspective, we're expecting net proceeds of over ZAR 25 billion.
That's based on the ZAR 26.5 billion. So if we get more in rands, then the net proceeds will also go up.
Those proceeds will be used primarily to reduce debt. And for those of you that want to try and work out what the profit on sale is, I'll just give you one number, but the debt that's embedded in the APAC business is around ZAR 1.2 billion.
You've got to subtract that off your ZAR 25 billion before you compare that to your net asset value if you want to work out a profit on sale, which we will be reporting in the second half of this year should this transaction go through. But it will be somewhere around ZAR 1.8 billion to ZAR 2 billion.
I think that's the range that we would expect to come into our earnings per share in the second half. Impact from an income statement perspective, after-tax profits, the loss that we expect from APAC will be around ZAR 1.75 billion of after-tax profits.
And that's a number you'll see in the results booklet for the 12 months ending June '25. So we've based this on June '25 numbers.
If you take out -- obviously, there's an interest saving that's embedded or interest cost that's embedded in the APAC business itself. If you exclude that, the interest saving for the rest of the Aspen Group based on the reduction of debt is around ZAR 1.2 billion pretax, which is around ZAR 0.9 billion after tax.
And if you net the 2 -- net that off the ZAR 1.75 billion, you get to about ZAR 0.85 billion of after-tax impact net of interest saving for the group, which is an earnings of circa ZAR 1.85. Stephen will talk you through the historic profile of the APAC business and also we'll talk you through how we plan to recover our profit gap over the next 2 years.
So I thought it would be quite interesting to show you this now, and then you can see the plan how we're going to tackle that gap in the next period. I think it will be quite good for you to all see that.
I think my last slide is just on ESG. It's something that we always focus on.
It's part of our DNA, and we're passionate about it. And so we've got -- if you remember, we've got our 16 goals under these 4 pillars that we published in our integrated report.
And the 4 pillars, just to remind you, our patients, our people, society and the environment. So on the patient side, that's probably our key driver or metric for Aspen from a DNA perspective, and that's to increase access to critical medicines in emerging markets.
And I'm pleased to say at this stage, we've had an 8% increase in volumes versus FY '24 of critical medicines. Some of the call-outs here, obviously, we've had -- we've made some good progress in the insulin manufacturer that Stephen spoke about earlier on.
We're also making good progress on the serum -- Aspen serum vaccines, which I think Stephen will give you an update on as well. And our generic GLP-1 strategy will also help us in this patient access bucket.
From a people perspective, our goal by 2030 is to get to equal gender balance. And I'm pleased to say that as we sit now relative to 2020, we're at 32% of women in top leadership positions, and that's an increase from 19% in FY '20.
So good progress there. We still got to get to 50% by 2030, but we're well on track.
From a societal perspective, there, our focus is on group ethics and compliance and our deliverable there was to complete that program by the end of FY '25, and we've successfully done that and completed that 100%. And then very importantly, on the environment, our target there is to reduce carbon emissions, Scope 1 and 2 by 50% by 2030.
And if you look at the gray block, we're around 24% reduction at this stage relative to FY 2020 as our baseline. Some callouts there.
We've increased our renewable energy usage to 19%. So with 8 manufacturing facilities now using solar panels to supplement the energy.
We also started to introduce water stewardship plans, and we started our facility in Cape Town. And with our partner, IFC, which is one of our development funding institutions, they've got expertise in this area.
And together, we've developed a decarbonization road map project at our Quebec facility that we'll then use as a blueprint to drive down our carbon emission going forward. So I think some very good progress on our ESG.
And on that note, I'd like to hand back to Stephen to take you through the more exciting part of the presentation now that we've dealt with all the numbers. Thank you, Stephen.
Stephen Saad
Thank you, Sean. Well done, Sean.
He's showing up black belts in budgetary control, Sean, well done. It's impressive.
Keep your hands on the cash, Sean. Good.
I always say this, you've got to have good partners in business. You have people that can make money, but more important are people that can keep money.
So let's deal with a little bit with the group strategy here. The group strategy, my heads up to is have a look very carefully at what we see as very strong organic earnings growth and it's capital light.
We've spent the capital. So just bear that in mind when considering how we look at the business going forward.
So when we look at commercial pharma, this is our base business. It's army of people out in the field selling product.
And we've got great dynamics in our market because we're particularly strong in emerging markets. And no matter how they perform, there's always a growing middle class and often don't have a single player, so payer.
So if you go into developed markets, the government may pay for all your medicines, for example. Here, people have to pay out of pocket.
They try and buy the best medicine they can as affordably. So it's got to be affordable and it's got to have quality.
And that's where we've focused our business in terms of branding and quality. And we're in that sweet spot of continuing volume growth across our markets.
We've had risks in our base business. We've had risks over the years, start in Venezuela.
We've had Russia and Ukraine, and we've had a VBP issue in China. We've managed them all, and you will see from what Sean showed you earlier, we successfully managed the challenges we've had in China.
So our base business is solid. There's no road bumps ahead, and it continues to perform.
And once again, we're heading for another year of double-digit growth in EBITDA. What we're also going to show you now is I know that a lot of people question GLP-1s, will it work, won't it work, et cetera.
What you're going to start to see is evidence of that growth in these numbers, too. When we talk -- I'm going to go straight into GLP-1s and our strategy.
When we talk, we're going to really talk about 2 key areas and obviously, an outlook. One is the Mounjaro performance in South Africa and its rollout into sub-Saharan Africa.
Two, the semaglutide. Semaglutide is the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy.
It's a generic opportunity as we see it and then the outlook for GLP-1s. What you see now on this slide is the GLP-1 market in South Africa and its market value is currently at about ZAR 2.2 billion.
Now that represents about a tripling. That market has tripled in 18 months.
It's a great category to be in. There's huge unmet demand.
And it's a business that Mounjaro in particular, has performed -- has been a key driver in the growth. It was -- we've gone from 21% of the market to 52%.
A lot of that's been driven by the new indications, and it will be the quickest brand to reach ZAR 1 billion in the South African market. And I know I said that we're going to get to ZAR 1 billion, and I hope to get to ZAR 1 billion next financial year.
We're going to get to this financial year. And we expect to achieve over ZAR 1.3 billion.
It's quite hard to pin the number here because every time you pin a number, it goes a little bit higher and higher, but it definitely won't be less than ZAR 1.3 billion of sales in this period. The registration of the KwikPen, which was the device, which moved from a vial, gave us an opportunity now to register the product across Sub-Saharan Africa.
And we expect registrations from as early as this calendar year. The process can be a little quick in some of the African territories.
And so we think '26, '27 will be a period of registration of products across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we'll get to understand the dynamics of that market as we roll it out. The semaglutide opportunity, semaglutide is effectively a generic launch.
Canada is the first market to go patent of size. And we are -- we're definitely in the shake up for an early launch here.
What do we say an early launch? We believe that the first products coming to market will be in Q2, calendar year Q2.
So May, June might be the earliest product you could get there, but that's our best estimate. And we're hoping to be in the sort of mix towards the end of Q2, Q3 to get registration.
There's a process to bringing -- commercializing a product, which means you've got get a number that you've got to try and print onto your products quickly enough and you've got to get your product approved in various provinces. But I think that we're comfortable that we've got a really good shot at being part of what in the generic world called market formation.
So that's when the market takes shape and those people with early entrants have a larger share to start with. And we think we're up there with frontrunners.
Very proud of that opportunity, proud of our teams for getting us there. But probably more important for Aspen is in many of our emerging markets, when you want to register a product, they will say to you, for example, in the Latin American countries to many, what regulated markets have you got that we can reference your product to.
So getting this registration is great for us and great to have the opportunity in Canada, but also becomes a reference market for us because they want to see that a stringent regulator has approved it and then they can reference it. And so it's very important for us because, obviously, emerging markets are key for us.
So we also would -- the -- it's a sort of a bipolar patent expiry. In general terms, emerging markets start expiring from this year.
and carry on through until '27, end of '27, '28 and regulated markets tend to start in 2030. So it's going to be very important, the sort of scrap in emerging markets.
And I think Aspen are really up for it in our key markets. And we're in a good position to be rolling out across those markets, particularly with our presence across many of those markets.
Sorry that I make of -- get something out there. In terms of the sort of outlook for ourselves, well, we've got the Mounjaro rollout in South Africa and hopefully, the initiation across Sub-Saharan Africa.
And the demand remains strong. It's growing every month.
So it's not a -- it's growing every month. We've managed to get a fair bit of stock in, but it is something that we're sort of monitoring almost daily, weekly, trying to understand the offtakes.
And I've discussed the semaglutide opportunity there. But it's -- we're very pleased to have a partner like Eli Lilly in terms of pipeline and products.
So Eli Lilly, we've partnered with many multinationals, but I don't think we've had one with such a strong base product and pipeline of products. And it's a great position to be in.
Now this is -- that covered our commercial pharma business. I want to go into manufacturing now.
Now in manufacturing, just to repeat, if you see that we've made ZAR 700 million of profit in manufacturing, understand that we've made ZAR 1 billion somewhere else, and we've lost ZAR 1.7 billion in steriles because to get this to breakeven profitability, we need to cover for the ZAR 1 billion that we lost in the contract and then we -- as a first step. So when we give you guidance, which we will later, we'll say to you our profitability in manufacturing will be the same as last year or in line with last year.
That means we've recovered ZAR 1 billion in this year to cover for the contract loss. As I said when I opened, we modified our strategy.
We modified our strategy to simply address all the issues that we can control. In a world of moving macro environment, I mean, as we sit today, I don't want to tell you how things move around us, we wanted to be in control of as many levers as we could be in control.
And we had to address our cost base, and we had to look and we have to commercialize those contracts. We have absolute certainty on over.
The reshaping is largely complete. You will see the benefits in H2, and you'll see the full benefit in financial year '27.
So yes, we've had a contract settlement in this period, but it's more than replaced by the annualized savings in financial year '27, and you'll see it's also covered in the second half of this year. Hard processes really not easy, painful for an organization, but in the environment we sell, we find ourselves in very absolutely necessary and gives you a lot more control over everything that we do.
So having dealt with that, let's talk a little bit about contract commercialization. So in terms of contract commercialization, the insulin contract is very material for our South African business.
We've got one line. We started it.
We ramp up that line -- so it will ramp up over the period. We'll have a full impact into financial year '27.
We also -- we've now moved -- we're moving on to a second line towards the end of this year. And the second line will be -- will come on stream for financial year '27, and we're hoping to build off that base.
The facility in France was particularly impacted by tariffs because the Trump administration was saying, why are you making anything in Europe? Why don't you make it?
You can't stand stuff from Europe to the U.S., you must make here and a very different approach to vaccines and vaccine registrations impacted that site. Now we have something called RFQs, which are basically a request for quotes.
People come to you and say, "Can you make this product for us? In that tricky period, when we had absolute uncertainty, we had one request the whole year, which was -- and so that's why I said to you, I can't give you any guidance here.
I don't know where this is going, et cetera. In the short period we've had in this year, we've already had 6.
So the market is turning a bit for us. It's -- we're seeing green shoots there.
And happy to say that we've secured additional volumes, which would give us about ZAR 300 million more EBITDA in financial year '27. So it's a great facility.
For those of you that visited, it's a great facility, and it's well positioned, and I'm happy to see some momentum there. Pediatric vaccines, quite a frustrating process in terms of a regulatory and a regulatory environment.
Environments are very tricky in terms of people are losing funding like WHO, so the U.S. pulls funding.
And so there's -- it's not -- it's not always easy to get the timing and the pace right on these. But I'm happy to report there's a process here where you need to first get your local country, SAHPRA registration and then you go to the WHO.
We have 2 products registered with SAHPRA, and I'll go to the WHO. PQ is prequalifying.
It means you go in. Once they prequalify, you can start tendering.
We've got 2 other products in with the regulators, and we expect registration during this calendar year, so over the next 9 or 10 months or so. I think the one worth discussing today is Hexa.
Hexa, by implication has got 6 different deals with whooping cough and polio. It's a very broad vaccine.
6 different ingredients to deal with it. And we -- I'm happy to say that the WHO and SAHPRA instead of treating us sequentially on this product, in other words, SAHPRA first then WHO, they're looking at it in parallel.
If it works as they propose, we should get registration at a similar time for both. And that would be great for Aspen because the tender cycle for Hexa starts in calendar year '27.
So we are trying to get this product registered with both SAHPRA and prequalified at WHO in this year to be able to participate in a tender cycle in financial year '27. So it's been a lot longer process than was initially intimated to us and there was real urgency around vaccines at a point, particularly around COVID, but that urgency seems to have diminished together with funding for a lot of these type of institutions.
But we are finally seeing the wheels turning. And hopefully, we'll be talking about Hexa here in the not-too-distant future.
So we've spoken lots of numbers, lots of things. And I think sometimes it's easier just to put it on a very simple table to see where you are and to talk about what we're trying to achieve at a group.
So what you'll see in the red there is we've lost a contract. It cost us ZAR 1 billion.
So let's start at the start maybe. We have ZAR 9.6 billion of EBITDA in financial year '25, and we lost ZAR 1 billion in a contract.
And we divest a business in a region which has ZAR 2.6 billion of EBITDA. So you start with the ZAR 9.6 billion and now you strip down to ZAR 6 billion, being the ZAR 1 billion, minus ZAR 1 billion, minus ZAR 2.6 billion.
So that's what the red column says. At the bottom, it says we are ZAR 3.6 billion down off our base.
Our intention is to restore this business to its ZAR 9.6 billion of EBITDA by financial year '27. So that means we've got to make back ZAR 3.6 billion.
What have we got? We had ZAR 9.6 billion, we lose ZAR 3.6 billion.
We've got ZAR 6 billion. To get to ZAR 9.6 billion, we need 60% growth, straight EBITDA growth roughly.
Of course, in our business, exchange rates are impactful. They're not going to be that impactful on the absolute picture.
So our idea is trying to get as much of that back as we can get over the next period. So what is -- what do we -- how does that work?
So in 2026, we will guide you that we expect our manufacturing revenue to be stable. And that means we've made back the ZAR 1 billion we've lost in the contract, okay?
That's what we have to do to get that back. We will guide you that commercial pharma has double-digit growth.
And remember now it's double-digit growth for business outside of APAC, APAC being the divested business. And so you can double up what you see in the first half and you get to see where you are and you reasonably could have a number of ZAR 0.7 billion.
Means we're hoping to get back ZAR 1.7 billion of that in financial -- in this financial year, which then leaves us a balance of ZAR 1.9 billion for next year. We've guided you that steriles will get to EBITDA breakeven or better.
And so by deduction, you've got ZAR 0.7 billion more in 2027, and that's driven by, one, annualized savings, but two, in new contracts. Commercial pharma is simply -- and then -- so now you've got a balance.
And your balance is actually the ZAR 1.2 billion that for 2027 that we now have to make up. So how are we going to make up ZAR 1.2 billion or what -- how much of the -- where will the components of the ZAR 1.2 billion come from?
So we start with Commercial Pharmaceuticals. We've got base organic growth, and we expect GLP-1 growth.
So we've got South Africa, which is already tracking at a higher cadence in the last month of the month versus the first month. And we are hopeful for some launches in Sub-Saharan Africa, and we're hopeful for a generic launch, particularly in Canada, should be the most impactful if achieved in financial year '27.
In addition, what is new to us and recently been completed is we also know we've got an extra ZAR 300 million of EBITDA in our French facility. So hopefully, between all of those, we capture a good portion of the ZAR 1.2 billion, but it will give you a sense of where we're tracking to get to whatever number we get to.
Remember, this excludes anything out of the divested businesses. You will have a business with EBITDA, very high EBITDA, hopefully approaching ZAR 9.6 billion, and you'll have no debt and probably have cash.
So that's the goal for us as a business. But I think it's just simple -- if you get lots of numbers thrown at you, a simple table can assist with that.
And so that -- that's the push for earnings and earnings growth. Now I want to come to the sum of parts and the free cash flows.
This unlock -- and obviously, it's all dependent on approval. So this divestment gives us a lot of balance sheet flexibility.
And it's -- we've continued -- the base business will continue to drive cash and profitability. Why did we do it?
Well, one, I gave you reasons upfront, but it was a compelling valuation, and it leaves us with negligible debt and consequently, a lot of balance sheet flexibility. The remaining part of the business is focused on our faster-growing emerging markets.
And when you look at the growth engines I've told you, we've spoken about what drives our earnings growth will be manufacturing, which is not in the region and GLP-1 rollout. And those GLP-1 rollouts are not in this region initially either because the biggest market is Australia and the patent sometime in the 2030s.
So we have our growth engines off a smaller base profitability. And if you take the multiple that we got here, which is over 11x EBITDA, if you take that multiple and you put it across commercial pharmaceuticals, then you get -- it's way beyond our total market capitalization.
And for that reason, we believe that the commercial pharma is undervalued. Our faster-growing businesses must surely carry a minimum EBITDA of this one.
Moving finished -- moving steriles to a positive EBITDA, when we look at Aspen and people -- and you see and say, we assign -- we ascribe an EBITDA to Aspen multiple of 7. And as I told you earlier, what that does is it means that there's a negative applied to our sterile business.
Now we completely disagree with that. Our sterile business is very valued.
We've got unbelievable assets and they're valuable. It's not if but when.
But what we do is we take the heat out of it by getting them profitable, but we don't agree. And everyone is entitled to their own value.
I'm not telling how the value. I'm just telling you we as a management team how we look at it.
But while there's a disjunct in value, we have to continue to look for opportunities to further unlock value. It doesn't make sense for shareholders if the value remains trapped.
So we will continue to look for opportunities to unlock value in the business. What drives free cash flow and improving free cash flow is, one, you've got increased earnings coming forward out of organic earnings.
You've got declining CapEx, which Sean has shown you and that decline will maintain. And our growth drivers, the GLP-1s and our manufacturing sterile facilities don't come with extra -- we've made these investments in the past.
And so that doesn't drive further CapEx needed for the growth. And as you've seen, we need this reduced capital -- working capital investment.
This is interesting because we want to show you the consequences of what we've divested. Much of this will be in a circular when it comes out, if not all of this.
But here's the operational impact of the divestment of APAC. As I said, it's material.
The revenues are about ZAR 8 billion, and the EBITDA from 2023 was about ZAR 3 billion. It's declined to about ZAR 26 billion -- sorry, ZAR 3 billion goes to ZAR 2.6 billion in '25.
And for all intents and purposes, this year, it would be about ZAR 2.3 billion. Some of that's currency movements in there.
The Australian currency has not been strong over that period. And the reason I give you ZAR 2.3 billion for this year is that in H1, which we've had, H1 in the region is stronger than H2.
Almost all that profits in commercial pharma, and you'll see it has very -- it's got good cash flows, but that cash received will be offset against outstanding debt. What is interesting probably just to give you a sense of the relative growth of some of the emerging markets to this region is when you look at the growth rate percentages, and that table -- the table at the sort of bottom there, you'll see we reported a 6% growth in EBITDA in reported terms, so that's with currency all in.
If we look at it what we achieved operationally, it was 11%. If we take this region out, which is what you'll see at the end of this period, the growth jumps from reported from 6% to 13% and in constant exchange rate, it goes from 11% to 16%.
So if we were showing you these accounts with Australia divested, you would have seen reported earnings growth of 13%, growing at a constant exchange rate of 16%. So it is material, generates a lot of cash, et cetera.
But clearly, as you'll see, was a bit dilutive to the overall growth of the business. So now we get to guidance.
Guidance, we had a lot of debates about guidance, whole business, continuing operations, discontinuing. So we're trying to make it as sort of understandable as we could.
So if we talk about guidance here, '26, we expect the Commercial Pharma business to retain the single-digit growth in revenue, mid-single and the double-digit constant exchange rate EBITDA growth. And we expect higher margins to persist and will be higher than prior year in Commercial Pharma.
We will -- as I've discussed earlier, manufacturing, we expect to be in line with the prior year, which means we have to recoup -- to achieve this, we have to recoup the ZAR 1 billion contribution, and we expect to achieve that, obviously, through the operational improvements across the business. We are absolutely focused on driving positive financial '27 to have our Sterile business into a positive EBITDA and cash flows.
And a lot of that is as we -- the annualized savings, insulin ramp-up, and now we've got these increased volumes coming through NDB as well. What does all of that turn into in terms of financial guidance?
We expect double-digit growth in normalized HEPS, which Sean has taken you through. We expect EBITDA to be double -- at least double what we achieved in the first half.
And that's driven, as Sean showed you, by a much stronger second half of this year versus the prior year. We have stronger free cash flows.
Our operating cash flows will exceed 100%, and they traditionally, we've done that for decades. And there's CapEx reduction, which Sean showed you on his slide, which would continue and the lower working capital investments.
Tax is relatively stable. And we -- with this transition close, we would have extinguished our debt in total or nearly all of the debt in total.
And of course, we cannot tell you about currencies. Two days ago, we would have told you a different story about the dollar currency to today.
But while the missiles flying, we are a global business, and we are very impacted by global events as we've seen over the years. And with that, I think that's -- that my last slide.
Yes, that is my last slide. So that's our story.
So thank you for listening and I appreciate it. And hopefully, there's a fair bit of clarity in what we're doing.
But if there's one thing you get out -- I hope you get out of this is that we've taken firm control over the controllables and tried to decrease uncontrollables in the business. Thanks Roy.
Unknown Executive
Thank you, Stephen. Thank you, Sean.
We can take some questions from the floor, and then we'll go to the webcast.
Unknown Analyst
I'm [indiscernible] from Ashburton Investments. Just a question on the commercial pharma business.
Revenue was obviously quite positively impacted by the GLP-1's commercialization in the South African market. Can you give us a sense of what that growth was ex that number?
And then maybe further to that, there is talk, as you say, of generics starting to come into emerging markets in 2026 and 2027. How do you see that impacting your GLP-1s business in SA provided the regulatory authority actually gets around to approving these guys?
Stephen Saad
Yes. So the GLP-1 situation in South Africa, it's quite interesting and interesting dynamic because we will have a generic semaglutide in the market as well.
The positioning -- so the Mounjaro patents are a long, long way away. So Mounjaro is the most expensive product in the market, much more expensive than the other products and people buy Mounjaro.
The generics come against the second and third products, Ozempic and Wegovy and they will -- they are expected to impact those products. Anybody who wanted to buy a cheaper product would not be buying Mounjaro.
They'd buy one of the other branded products because they're cheaper. I firmly believe that the lower-priced products will actually bring in completely different set of users.
There are a whole lot of people that can't spend ZAR 3, ZAR 5, ZAR 6 month, they just can't in the South African environment in any environment. And so you're going to get very different users.
And I mean, if we get it as affordable as we hope to, this could be something that gets even into the public sector of South Africa. So we're really pushing hard on that affordability, but I actually believe there's a completely different patient profile for those 2 products.
Yes. I listened to -- I heard you last [indiscernible] gave me a hard by one-on-one last time, yes.
I hope you pleased.
Unknown Analyst
Just for everybody else, it's [indiscernible] Mianzo Asset Management. Just a question on the balance sheet, which didn't come up on the slides.
You indicated the NAV for the APAC business is ZAR 21 billion and your group equity -- group NAV is ZAR 81 billion. So of that remaining ZAR 60 billion, how do you split that between commercial pharma and manufacturing?
Sean Capazorio
In terms of balance sheet value?
Unknown Analyst
NAV equity.
Sean Capazorio
NAV. Yes, I think manufacturing is probably -- sure.
I'm going to give it a go, but I think it's -- we don't really -- because remember, our manufacturing doesn't just service manufacturing, also services our commercial pharma business. So we don't actually go and say, well, manufacturing assets only service manufacturing profit and commercial -- so that split of assets is not just manufacturing.
So I think it will be probably an unfair number to quote, but I think your big assets in manufacturing are in your plant, property, plant and equipment, and those are probably ZAR 20 billion odd, I would guess.
Stephen Saad
I think it's like 60-20.
Sean Capazorio
You've got a lot of IP in the commercial pharma business. Even with the APAC out, you still got about ZAR 50 billion, I think, of IP.
But obviously, you've got the whole -- all your other assets and liabilities sitting in there as well.
Unknown Analyst
Okay. That's helpful.
And then I mean, you focus a lot on EBITDA. How much attention do you focus on return on invested capital because that has shown a concerning declining trend over many years.
And do you look at it separately for the Commercial division and the manufacturing division and the group as a whole? Or how do you look at that?
Stephen Saad
Yes, I understand there's a formula, and I understand the formula doesn't look good, and we understand that internally. You've also got to understand that Aspen might not fit into every formula you create because, as I said to you, we haven't taken a cent from shareholders, and we've got no debt at the end of all of this, and we've created so much value.
So what is not taken account in any formulas is we do buy and sell businesses. I mean we're not very different to private equity in a lot of what we do within every couple of years, every year, we make some fairly significant divestment sales.
What we -- but the return on invested capital is not acceptable. I absolutely agree with you.
I can't argue with you. It is a problem when you lose ZAR 1.7 billion on ZAR 20 billion of assets, so just using Sean's numbers.
So I'm talking about manufacturing. And that needs to change.
And as soon as you change that, then a lot of your formulas change. You will find that this divestment will result in an improvement on the return on invested.
Sorry, Sean, this is your say.
Sean Capazorio
Yes. No, go ahead.
Stephen Saad
Are you happy. Will result in an improvement on return on invested capital.
But I agree with you, it's something one has to focus on. But I don't think that you can -- you should just put a unilateral formula against.
If we took out of the business, these assets are incubating. It's like taking an R&D business and saying, oh, you're not getting a return on these assets.
But we do -- if we don't get a return, then yes, you're right. But if we're going from minus 1.7 to 0 to plus 1.7, you're going to get a very different return on those core manufacturing assets.
I know Sean said that they split, but -- and that would be -- that should be good. And you get a good sense.
We're also not in an industry where you can buy things at 3x EBITDA or 2x, we just don't have -- we don't have those type of luxuries. But then when we sell, we also don't sell at those type of luxury.
So if you take 11.4, 11.5x EBITDA, whatever we achieved in the Australian divestment. You take off the depreciation tax after tax, put it over what we've got, you see we're getting -- the return is high as well.
So I don't -- I think formulas are very important and they stable, but I think you've also got to try and understand what the adjustments under that.
Unknown Analyst
Okay. This is the last one for me.
Well on that question is what we're trying to understand is the trend in the return on invested capital. Has it been stable for commercial pharma and has the investment in manufacturing rate down?
That's what you're trying to understand. So if you could give us a split in the assets between the divisions, it would be very helpful for the market to better understand the group and where the value lies.
Stephen Saad
Yes, agreed. I hear where you're coming from.
It's just we've got split assets. We've got a factory and say, take South Africa.
It makes for our South African business, and it also makes for manufacturing. So look, we could do that exercise for you, and we could try and work out how we split that out, Sean.
I've committed Sean to that, and we can have a look at that. I'm worried he's going to sell it before you get it.
Unknown Analyst
My name is Maleen from ABSA. I look after the health care sector.
Aspen is one of my clients. I have a very good relationship with Crispen.
So I just wanted to know, based on the sale of the APAC business, is the full proceeds going towards basically reducing your debt? Or will be some form of special dividend as well?
Stephen Saad
So I think where we are on this. And I mean, I don't think you have to be Nostradamus to work out what we're telling you.
We're saying, okay, get the money. We first want to get the money, put it in the bank.
Have a look at it for a while. I haven't seen a positive on an Aspen bank account for 30 years, okay?
So I just did have a glance and see it. Okay, it looks quite nice up there.
And then to say to ourselves, okay, what do you do with the money? Now this is something that we run -- we'd have to run through the Board, but you're asking me, okay?
I've got to say to you, I'm telling you that there's a problem with the sum of parts. The value of the company is not represented.
So it obviously makes sense to give shareholders back money and that something through a buyback or to buy the shares back. To me, that's a logical answer.
I don't have -- I've got lots of people in the Board who've all got ideas and all much smarter than me and all of these type of things. But just logically, it makes sense.
You've got no debt, you're generating a lot of cash. And if your share price stays where it is and you don't believe it represents value and you can show in any metrics you want, you just say, here's commercial pharmaceutical business together with the API business, and this is a fair multiple.
And then here's the Sterile business, which people have put a negative on, but we think is very valuable. And you add that together and you'll come to a number and you divide by the number of shares, and it's very different to your share price.
Then you've got to say to yourself, well, it's got to be something I've got to recommend. We need to be looking at how we return money to shareholders, absolutely.
Sean Capazorio
There's another one there.
Stephen Saad
We don't have to make massive acquisitions. We just focus on what we've got in front of us.
We've spent our money. We now need to deliver on the assets we spent money on, fix all Muhammad's formulas for him, and we have -- and you grow your business organically, why would you want to go and be spending a whole lot of cash when you've got all that growth underneath the...
Unknown Analyst
Steve [indiscernible]. I'm just a bit confused.
In the first slide, you show adjusted EBITDA of just over ZAR 5 billion. But then in your guidance, you say you'll at least double the first half normalized EBITDA of ZAR 3.8 billion.
Stephen Saad
I gave you continuing operations, Steve. So...
Unknown Analyst
Is that just continued.
Stephen Saad
That's just continuing. So I gave guidance on continuing because if it's gone, it's gone.
So just a point made here. We showed you EBITDA of ZAR 5.1 billion for the whole business.
That included the APAC divestment. If you take out the number, which is about ZAR 1.2 billion for the half of the APAC divestment, you'll get to ZAR 3.8 billion.
So that is what we showed you continuing. And to me, if I'm sitting in your shoes, Steve, that's what I'm looking at.
And once again, I'm saying, I've got ZAR 3.8 billion x 2, that's what I've got and it's debt free. And that's for this year.
And I gave you a table of what we hope to achieve for '27, okay? Cool.
Unknown Executive
Steve and Sean, so there are a couple of questions that have come through, but just in the interest of time, I'm consolidating a few of them speaking about your priorities in terms of capital allocation, and I think that you've just answered that. Zintle from Mazi.
She wants to know what the insulin contract regulatory approval entails and whether the ZAR 300 million will be this year, but I think you did say it was in FY '27.
Stephen Saad
So that's not to do with insulin. So let's just be clear.
There's an insulin contract that has value, and we're hoping that the sales, say, in financial '27 of insulin could be ZAR 1 billion. We're also saying that in independent, that's in our South African facility.
In addition to what we've told you, there's a further ZAR 300 million that we expect out of our French facility. And that's EBITDA, so it's not turnover, that's EBITDA.
Unknown Executive
Okay. And she also wants to know whether you can split out the Mounjaro revenue in South Africa.
I don't know if that's something that...
Stephen Saad
Yes, we've given guidance of ZAR 1.3 billion, and you sort of can take sort of half, a little bit less than half or something like that.
Unknown Executive
Right. And then I think the last one over here is just in terms of the commercial relationship with Dr.
Reddy's in the GLP-1.
Stephen Saad
Yes, we have very close relationship with Dr. Reddy's.
We identified them as a key strategic partner. Aspen has real strengths in peptides.
Remember, we've got an API business that deals -- sorry, GLP-1s, what goes into GLP-1s are peptides. And we have real strengths in peptides as a business.
We've got a factory that makes peptides, not those particular ones, but makes peptides. So we went to see the field of players who had the right active ingredient.
And we identified Dr. Reddy's as a key partner for Aspen.
So we are a key partner with them. We have access to IP through them and other things.
So I think there was a question -- was that answer the question? Okay.
Thank you.
Unknown Executive
Okay. Thank you.
I think that's going to have to bring the presentation to a close. Thank you very much for attending this morning and for the participation, both here and online.
Rendani, thank you very much for having us.
Rendani Magalela
Thank you.