Operator
Hello, and welcome to Eurocommercial Half Year Results 2020. My name is Suzanne, and I will be your coordinator for today's event.
Please note, this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to your host, Luca Lucaroni, to begin today's conference.
Thank you.
Luca Lucaroni
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning. My name is Luca Lucaroni, Investor Relations Director of our commercial, and I would like to inform you that on this call, we have Evert Jan van Garderen, our CEO; Roberto Fraticelli, our CFO; and Peter Mills, our CIO, to present your commercial results for half year 2022...
Evert Jan van Garderen
Thank you, Luca, for introducing us, and thank you also for accepting your new role as Investor Relations Director, a role that you are combining with your position as Finance Director, Italy. After my introduction, Peter Mills will talk in more detail about the property portfolio and ESG, followed by Roberto Fraticelli, who will discuss in more detail the financial results.
I will start with an overview of the operations of Eurocommercial during the first 6 months of the financial year 2022. And we'll finish this presentation with some closing remarks.
We will then open the call for any questions and remarks you may have. The operational performance of the company was particularly strong in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter in which there was still some impact from the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus on the company's business.
The diversification over 4 countries and the quality of the almost EUR 4 billion retail property portfolio in each of these countries have again been key to the performance of the company in the first 6 months of 2022. After the sale of property in France and on the basis of the external valuations of the entire property portfolio, as per 30 June, the portfolio spread changed slightly compared to December 2021.
Italy went up from 40% to 42% or as Sweden and France went down with 2% each to 22% and 21%, respectively. Sweden due to currency movements and France due to the sales.
We have now 24 properties in our property portfolio split between 45% allocated to our 5 flagship centers and 55% allocated to our suburban shopping centers focused on everyday goods and anchored by hypermarkets and supermarkets. 62% of the space in these shopping centers is dedicated to essential and everyday goods.
Our five flagship centers have more exposure to discretionary retail due to their different function but still have 42% exposure to Essential and everyday retail. Next to a good diversification over four countries, our shopping centers are again well spread in those countries and all in wealthy areas like, for example, Northern Italy or close to the Swiss border near Geneva, or in the wealthy catchment of Woluwe shopping in Brussels.
And these slides provide the maps of the four countries showing where our 24 shopping centers are. The sales in the first half of 2022 have been very strong compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019, with Belgium and France almost at the levels of 2019 and Italy already over its 2019 level.
The star is Sweden with 10% growth of the turnovers for the first 6 months of the calendar year compared to 2019 for the first 6 months. We were very encouraged by the turnovers in our stores during the second quarter of 2022 compared to the 2019 levels.
Each country showed strong growth so that the overall turnover growth of the shops reached 7.3% compared to the second quarter of 2019. Next to star performance Sweden, we were very pleased to see the growth in Italy 42% of our entire portfolio, reaching 6.4%, which is a remarkable score.
We just received the turnover numbers for the month of July 2022 and the growth continues at 5.7% for the group compared to July 2019. If we look at the various sectors and compare the turnovers for the second quarter, 2022, the same period in 2019 -- sorry, in -- compared to the same period in 2019, we see that all sectors have at least achieved their 2019 levels with some clear winners, which are hypermarkets and supermarkets, the health and beauty sector, gifts and jewelry, sports, home goods and books and toys.
We are very pleased to see that the fashion and shoe sector and the food and beverage sector recovered so well as these sectors have suffered most trading restrictions during the COVID-19 period. As all our shopping centers were generally open since May 2021, we're now able again to report the like-for-like rental growth for the portfolio and the four countries, as we have always calculated these growth percentages on the basis of 12-month data.
We compare the tenant schedules as per 30 June 2021, with a tenant schedules as per 30 June, 2022. So basically, we compare 2 photographs.
The reported figures include the impact of indexation, turnover and vacancies and the leasing activity, but exclude the impact of acquisitions, disposals, development projects and COVID-19 rent concessions. You will not be surprised to hear that the driver for the rental growth was the indexation, so let us have a closer look at the indexation for 2022.
Over the past years, the word indexation was hardly mentioned as the indexation was very low and this component of rental growth was almost nonexistent. This has changed in the summer of 2021 when inflation started to appear, affecting the indexes to be used for the 2022 indexation, mostly the consumer price index.
Although the indexation difference among our countries, the average indexation for the entire portfolio is assessed at 3.6%. In Italy, the indexation was the highest with 3.8%, followed by France and Sweden at 2.8%.
For Belgium, it is more difficult to calculate indexation for 2022, as every month, those leases, which started in that particular month, are indexed using the index for that month. In that case, we only know by the end of the year where the indexation invoice and to be invoiced for us.
The indexation is expected to contribute to the rental income for 2022 for an amount of EUR 7 million. So far, we have not received pushback from tenants on the indexation build, as you will see also later when we discuss the rent collection for the first half year of 2022.
In principle, the company has a natural hedge against inflation, thanks to the indexation. We are proud to be able to report on 268 relettings and renewals.
Last year -- 301 renewals and relettings, but still also more than the 245 in 2019 and average rental uplift of 4.3% was achieved. These lease transactions reflect 13% of the minimum guaranteed rent of the portfolio.
And we were able to attract new tenants with our 94 new lettings, achieving an uplift of 5.1%. These new deals were concluded under normal lease conditions and lease terms, so no short-term leases.
Low vacancy is usually a good indicator for the quality of the properties. Over the last 10 years, we have reported vacancy rates for our property portfolio ranging between 0.5% to 1.8%, and we continue to do so.
The average for the last 10 years was around 0.9%. The EPRA vacancy rate remained very low at 1.5% in June 2022 for the entire portfolio.
For France, the rate, as expected, reduced to 2.4% as a result of new lettings, in particular, in our shopping center, Les Atlantes in Tours. For Sweden, the rate increased to 2.2% due to our continuous work to keep the rent collection at 100% by replacing underperforming tenants by new ones.
The Swedish vacancy level is expected to reduce again in the third quarter as a result of new lettings. Now that turnovers have normalized and rent concessions are not applicable anymore, we can also report the occupancy cost ratios for all countries and for the entire portfolio.
The company has always been known for its low occupancy cost ratios, and we are, therefore, pleased that we can report 9.2% as occupancy cost ratio for our portfolio as per 30 June, 2022. This percentage is still 1 of the lowest in the industry and implies that the rents are affordable for our tenants.
If we look back some years before the pandemic, we reported in 2015, for example, 1.8% for the portfolio. And just before the pandemic started we reported in 2019, 8.9%.
So our current overall OCR is almost at pre-pandemic levels. During the COVID-19 period, the rent collection was suddenly a very important metric and key performance indicator closely followed by investors and analysts.
We can now conclude that this difficult period caused by lockdowns and restrictions, strongly affecting the business of many of our tenants is behind us. The rent collection is back to normal, which is evidenced by a rent collection at 96% of invoice rent for the first 6 months of 2022.
Please also bear in mind that we returned in most cases, back to invoicing quarterly in advance and using direct debits to collect the rents, allowing monthly payments and payments in arrears to help troubling tenants is in principle history. 2022 has so far been another very active leasing year.
We are still well positioned to lease our retail space to attractive tenants and sustainable conditions at affordable rents. Introducing new tenants and new concept of existing tenants will ensure that our shopping centers remain attractive for the customers and continue to have their purpose and stay relevant in their catchments.
In Woluwe Shopping in Belgium, several new premium international brands have established stores, including Mango, Pandora, Xandres and Guess. During the early part of this summer, Fnac opened a flagship store in the former 2,600 square meters AS Adventure unit, who themselves have successfully relocated to a smaller store.
In France, new merchandising has covered a broad range of sectors, including Dr. Martens, Naf Naf and Devred, that is fashion; Bouygues Telecom, which is electrical, Comptoir de Mathilde, La Cure Gourmande [indiscernible], which is food, and Krys, We Audition and Generale d'Optique in the health and beauty sector.
In two, the French team managed to relet the space vacated or Toys retailer PicWic Toys to fashion retailers, Bonobo and Mango and to a gym operator, which reduced the vacancy rate in France. International brands establishing in Italy continue to take space in our centers with recent examples, including JD Sports, Nike, Adidas, Pepco, Starbucks, Dyson, Pull&Bear and Bershka.
In Fiordaliso, the new 2,500 square meter food court. FiordaFood, was recently opened adding 9 new restaurants, including Wagamama; Mexican restaurant, Calavera; and Craft brewery's restaurant, Giustospirito.
In Sweden, new lettings included Cassels, Hemtex, Clas Ohlson, New Yorker, Rituals and Normal expanding Danish value retailer who have now established in six of our shopping centers. IKEA have successfully opened their new planning studio concept in ground Grand Samarkand, Ingelsta Shopping and Hallarna, Three new leases have been signed with the bestseller group during the first half year and will open during the third quarter [indiscernible] stores in C4 and Hallarna and Only in Hallarna.
This is the moment to hand over to Peter Mills, who will discuss in more detail our property portfolio and will report on environmental, social and governance strategy and performance.
J. Mills
Thank you, Evert Jan, and good morning. Overall, the valuations increased by 1.4% over 6 months and by 2.2% over 12 months, with each of our four markets showing a positive increase over both periods.
Generally, these higher valuations resulted from stable or even marginally higher initial or exit yields depending on methodology applied to higher net operating income generated from the rental uplift achieved from the renewal and reletting program and higher-than-anticipated rental indexation. The overall EPRA net initial yield on the portfolio has increased to 5.3% due to the higher NOI, but also the sale of the much lower yielding office and residential property of Passage du Havre in Central Paris.
In their reporting, the value has identified strong property fundamentals, including low vacancy and a good outlook for income security and further growth, supported by consistent tenant demand and rent affordability, with our overall occupancy cost ratio remaining at its low pre-pandemic level at around 9.2%. We have, again, provided the valuation split separating our five flagship shopping centers with their broad international tenant base and representing around 45% of the portfolio.
Located in their respective countries capital or main economic cities, they are significantly larger assets with an average individual total value of over EUR 400 million and a lower yielding at around 5% overall. The remaining 19, mainly suburban hypermarket anchored shopping centers, have different and more defensive characteristics with over 60% of their floor space devoted to a broad range of essential and everyday retail, including groceries and a range of services supporting their more local communities.
These assets comprising around 55% of the portfolio are also much smaller with an average value of around EUR 100 million and a high yielding at 5.5% overall. Looking at our disposal program, we sold two low-yielding properties in France during the first half of 2022, both transactions completing in March.
Les Grands Hommes in Bordeaux was sold for a price of EUR 22.5 million, and our 50% ownership of the office and residential parts of Passage du Havre in Central Paris was sold to our joint venture partner, AXA, for a price of EUR 57 million. We will remain the asset manager and owner of 50% of the retail gallery in the main building of Passage du Havre with its GLA of 14,000 square meters, including the main anchor and around 40 retail tenants.
These sales form the final parts of the company's EUR 200 million disposal program first announced 2 years ago in August 2020, and comprising our only three stand-alone retail parks and three city center assets in France, leaving the company with a more homogenous shopping center portfolio in its four markets. On the project front, in addition to the new food court at Fiordaliso, which Evert Jan just referred to, we also completed a 1,600 square meter F&B development, adjoining our Migros anchored shopping center at Shopping Etrembieres in France.
The two restaurants shown on the slide, successfully opened in June and are proving to be an ideal complement to the tenant mix and also provides a popular rooftop terrace with exceptional views over the nearby out. During the COVID period, we generally scaled back extension projects so that today, we only have one small remaining ongoing commitment, which is in Sweden, where we are completing the final phase of a project at Valbo located outside the Gavle, the last of the 7 Swedish shopping centers we acquired in 2018.
The objective of the project has been to improve and broaden the tenant mix upgrade the property to a modern standard while improving customer flow by creating a single loop from a new main entrance. The project has been executed in three phases due to the complexity of keeping the center open and in full operation during the works.
The first two phases are completed and provided new stores for tenants including H&M, New Yorker, Normal, Hemtex, Rituals, Intersport and Deichmann, while at the same time, refurbishing the malls and public areas and upgrading the restaurants. The last committed phase is underway, illustrated in the artist impression on the slide and will provide the new entrances to the main car park, new facade, signage and an additional 7 shops already pre-leased, which will open next year.
The H&M at Valbo shown on the slide is the fifth full concept store that we have delivered for H&M in Sweden, where they have roughly doubled the size of their stores in our centers, taking them up to 3,000 square meters to provide their full assortment to include the very successful H&M Home, Health and Beauty and more recently, Sport. It has been interesting to see that in three of these locations, H&M have already closed their older smaller city center units, leaving our shopping centers, providing the only H&M store in catchment serving up to 300,000 people, very important as H&M dominate their home fashion market where they face more limited international competition.
The existing portfolio continues to present excellent opportunities for future extensions that have the potential to provide enhanced investment returns while improving the commercial strength and market position of the shopping centers in their catchments. As extensions can also take considerable time to prepare and get planning consent, we have been continuing with the necessary and detailed project investigations and preparations, including planning, pre-letting, market and competition analysis and cost studies.
One example is here at Val Thoiry located just outside Geneva in the wealthy and growing region of France, where after various applications and appeals, we finally achieved planning consent last December, for an additional 23,000 square meters and have started the pre-letting, we signed leases to Primark and Decathlon, while Leroy Merlin will be relocating to a new 10,000 square meter store on an enjoining site we acquired, thereby releasing space for the gallery extension. We are currently assessing the updated construction costs and the timing in order to take a decision on this project.
At Woluwe Shopping in Brussels, a planning application for a 7,800 square meter retail extension and around 70 apartments above has recently been resubmitted. The planning journey has been delayed by a year following a public consultation exercise towards the end of last year, which has resulted in some modifications to the scheme in consultation with the municipality and the region.
The indications are that we should receive planning consent from the region during the first half of next year. There is considerable work still ahead, including detailed cost analysis and pre-letting, although we anticipate strong tenant demand for the retail extension at Woluwe, which is so well located in one of the wealthiest municipalities of Brussels and is performing very well again post-COVID and where Fnac and Mango have been the latest retailers to open further improving Woluwe's diversified and largely international tenant mix.
Our ESG and business strategies remain carefully aligned so the business decisions can be approached with a long-term view in order to evaluate both their environmental and social economic impact. and the future demands and expectations of our customers, tenants and employees.
Our approach is articulated around these three strategic pillars shown on the slide: Be green, be engaged and be responsible. Be green forms the foundation of our operation and provides us with the opportunity to make changes that will reduce to print and operational costs as we focus on the transition to a low carbon economy with the target to operate carbon neutral by 2030.
In order to reduce our carbon emissions, we have set reduction targets for our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions to achieve 0 emissions by 2030. And to achieve this, we have developed a carbon pathway, and we continue to improve the environmental quality of our shopping centers by implementing standards and technologies to improve energy and water efficiency and waste cycling.
This includes reducing energy consumption, procuring renewable electricity and where possible, generating energy on-site through further solar panel installations rock heating and groundwater heating and cooling. In Sweden, we have completed solar panel installations on all 7 shopping centers, and we are now progressing rapidly in Italy with the next installations due to commence shortly at Carosello and I Gigli.
During 2022, we have continued to roll out our green lease documentation following constructive collaboration with our tenants with whom we exchange ESG ambitions, targets and responsibilities. As part of its environmental policy, the company uses the comprehensive range of environmental criteria incorporated in the BREEAM certification process in order to standardize and improve the sustainable quality of its buildings and their management.
In February this year, we completed our initial certification program with all our 24 shopping centers being BREEAM certified, 3 years ahead of the original target date of 2025. 23 shopping centers received the scores very good or excellent.
During the first half of the year, our shopping centers in our four markets became a focus for their communities in the support of Ukraine, collecting money clothes, food and medical and hygiene products in collaboration with United Nations, the Red Cross and other charitable organizations. And I will now hand over to Roberto Fraticelli for the financial review.
Roberto Fraticelli
Thank you very much, Peter, and welcome, everybody. Let's look at our performance -- this slide gives you a quick overview of the most relevant financial data, income statement, financial position, in values and also per share.
As you can see, both rental income and net property income increased significantly compared to H1 2021. And this is mainly due to the effect of the COVID-19 concessions, which were granted in 2021.
Net interest expenses were lower than 2021, mainly thanks to the sale program, which led to a reduction of the borrowings. These changes positively affected the direct investment results as we will see later in more detail.
Moving to our financial position. property investments have not changed that much as lower investment values caused by the sales and by a weaker Swedish krona have been partially compensated by the increases in the valuation that Peter mentioned, where you can see a substantial reduction in net borrowings due to the property sales as discussed before.
The results per share now shows how or notwithstanding the 5.6% increase in the number of shares, values have held up pretty well. The significant uplift in the total investment results going up from EUR 0.36 per share to EUR 3.30 per share is attributable to an increase in both the direct and indirect results.
The positive increase in the indirect investment result is related to a EUR 47 million positive revaluation of the properties compared to EUR 42 million, the valuation for the same period in 2021, and by EUR 72 million increase in the value of the derivatives compared to the same period last year. These values were partially offset by EUR 32 million increase in the deferred tax provision over the same period.
The EPRA NTA and adjusted NAV reductions are mainly due to the accounting of the 2021 dividend, which was then paid in July 2022. Now if you look at the summary, yes.
This slide gives you a quick overview of the most important financial data. Total nominal value of the net borrowings at 30 June decreased by over EUR 150 million to EUR 1.52 billion from the EUR 1.68 billion at the 31st of December, 2021, thanks mainly still to the property sales and a weaker Swedish krona.
As you can see, our loan are spread among more than 15 banks in different countries with Dutch, German and Italian banks shares is around 30% each. What did we do this year?
Well, in April, the company entered into a new 5-year loan of EUR 66.5 million with ING to refinance the existing loans on the Curno shopping center in Italy. In June, the company entered into a new 3-year loan of EUR 50 million with ABN AMRO Bank to refinance an existing loan on the Cremona Po shopping center in Italy.
And this new loans qualify as green loans as the relevant proceeds are used to refinance two green assets and also sustainability-linked loans since the margins are linked to sustainable KPIs. In May 2022, the Italian joint venture, Galleria Verde, which is 50% owned by Eurocommercial, signed a new 5-year mortgage loan of EUR 21.5 million with Banca Popolare di Milano.
To finance the recently completed gallery extension at the Fiordaliso shopping center in Milan. As a result of these actions, the average term of the loan book is now almost 4 years with most repayments foreseen in the years '25 and '26.
As you can see, in '23 and '24, we have maturities for respectively EUR 176 million and EUR 169 million, and the available resources at 30 June were EUR 126 million in cash, and EUR 161 million in available facilities. We go to the hedging.
The overall interest rate, including margins at June was stable at 2%. This is also thanks to our conservative hedging policy as 84% of interest costs are hedged mostly by interest rate swaps, but also by a number of fixed interest coupon loans.
The average interest rate swap hedging term is almost 6 year and an increase of 100 basis points in interest rates will therefore only cause a limited increase of around EUR 2.5 million in interest expenses. Now our star, the loan-to-value ratio.
On the basis of proportional consolidation at 30 June, after deducting purchases costs, further decreased to 38.9% compared to December 2021, when it was 42.3%. We have, therefore, achieved our 40% loan-to-value ratio target.
Please also remember that the group covenant loan-to-value ratio agreed with the financing banks is 50%, 60%. So for comparison purposes, our loan-to-value ratio adding back purchases costs.
As per 30 June, was 38%, and our loan-to-value ratio adding that purchases cost and using the IFRS consolidated balance sheet was 36.5% little bridge on the end here, yes. This slide gives a quick look at the relative changes in EPRA NTA per share from the EUR 40.1 at the end of 2021 to the current EUR 39.5 The two major movements besides, of course, the direct and indirect results are related to the dividend accrual of EUR 1.50 per share, which was paid out in July and the variance of EUR 2.1 related to the negative adjustment of the fair value of the financial instruments.
Last but not least, the direct results. The direct investment results for the 12 months to June increased significantly to EUR 62.8 million compared to the EUR 46.8 million for the same period in 2021.
The main reason being the EUR 10.8 million lower COVID-19 rent concessions to retailers and the EUR 4.1 million lower bad debt provision. Please remember that the residual COVID-19 rank concessions feels to be straight lined in the future as a result of the application of the IFRS 16 amounts to EUR 5.5 million.
The net property income compared to 2021 is mainly related to higher rental income from the properties, also thanks to the indexation and the acquisitions of the remaining 50% share of [indiscernible], which more than compensated the loss of rent derived from the asset disposal program. Lastly, the decrease in net interest expenses is mainly related to the part share repayment of borrowings as a consequence of the disposal program.
Thank you very much, and now back to Evert van.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Thank you, Roberto, for presenting all the figures. Then I would like to make one closing remark about our direct investment result going forward.
We have decided to provide guidance for the remaining period of this calendar year in respect of the direct investment result and also to give some color on the dividend. Assuming no major COVID-19 related restrictions or further impact of the war in Ukraine and assuming no major deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, we expect the direct investment result for the year 2022 to be between EUR 2.20 and EUR 2.30 per share.
The direct investment result is the basis for the applicable dividend policy, providing for a cash dividend payout ratio ranging between 65% to 85%, but with a clear target of 75% of the direct investment result per share. An interim dividend will be payable in January 2023 and a final dividend payable in July 2023.
According to the applicable dividend policy, the interim dividend is expected to be 40% of the total cash dividend paid in the previous financial year, which was EUR 1.50 per share. So for January 2023, the interim dividend is expected to be EUR 0.60 per share.
The last slide shows the date of the next two company publications, the third quarter results and the 2022 year-end results. I would like to conclude this presentation with a statement that as Management Board we're truly thankful to all our teams in the various countries for their hard work and a continuing commitment to our company.
And I will now hand over to the operator for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Steven Boumans from ABN AMRO.
Steven Boumans
To start, I have two questions on extensions. First, in general, do you expect to announce new extensions that we have not heard before in H2?
Or are extensions not that economic anymore due to the increased perm costs? And second, related to extensions, could you provide some idea or a range on total CapEx and expected yields on cost for Woluwe and Val Thoiry extensions?
Evert Jan van Garderen
Yes. Thank you, Steven, for your questions.
I think in terms of your first part of the question, extensions in general to be announced. I think what we are doing anyhow with most of our properties in the portfolio is that we're working on obtaining permits for future extensions and further developments.
That is still ongoing. And that, of course, is a much longer-term approach.
And on the other hand, of course, we have mentioned two extensions in the presentation. Maybe Roberto because that's typically something which happens in Italy where I think all properties are basically -- yes, there we have possibilities.
Roberto Fraticelli
Yes. that's right, Steven.
Yes, let's say, what we are doing is, of course, we are going through the applications to obtain the building permits. As you might remember, in Italy, there is a double step that is the building permit, but it's also the licenses.
So that complicates a bit the situation, not only for us, fortunately, but for everybody so that if you look at possible potential increasing competition, they all have to go through these steps. And let's say, the parts concerning the building permissions, then it's something which is usually done at the local level, while the licenses is something that goes to a regional level.
So what you have is we go back and forth between the regional and the local municipalities in order to get an agreement, if you wish, on what the future expansions can be. So that takes usually between 3 and 5 years.
And so we are proceeding, let's say, on all these extensions. At the moment, we have not signed anything binding.
So we are not committed to any of these extension. What we also do is, of course, as maybe Jan already mentioned, we also look at the cost and the potential yield.
So those are items which we are always taking into consideration when then making the final decision, okay, we'll go for it. But that's -- as mentioned, we are in the proprietary stage for an extension in most of our shopping centers, in Italy.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Yes. And I think, Steven, probably Peter to comment on your second question about Woluwe and Val Thoiry, which he already talked about in the presentation and where we are there.
I think, Peter...
J. Mills
Woluwe is probably the most advanced and the one we've had the closest eye on, it's our biggest asset. And so when we bought it, it was the intention of doing this extension.
It's on land that came with the property. So it makes it very profitable.
We've had a year delay on the planning. And there's a lot of work being done on construction analysis at the moment and pre-letting, as I mentioned, we've really yet to start until we have a firm timetable on the planning.
It's a very difficult one to focus on. But if we get our planning in the middle of, let's say, by the latest middle of next year, we will proceed on the pre-letting because the return should -- the objective is to be well above the investment yield on the properties.
And in Woluwe, we always targeted something between 7% and 8%. To give you some idea on the CapEx, it's slightly smaller project now because we have had to reduce one floor of the residential.
So it's reduced from 80 to 70 flats, but something in the order of EUR 80 million on that one. But Val Thoiry, I would say less certain.
It has various phases that we could look at, including just building the new level 1 Milan alone. So I think that's something we'll perhaps park at the moment on cost and returns.
But I've given you some sort of guidance on Woluwe which are figures we've mentioned before.
Steven Boumans
Okay. Just to be completely clear, so the yield on cost guidance roughly that is unchanged even with the rise in construction materials, et cetera.
J. Mills
Well, I think as a general guide, we would hope to be at least 2% or 3% above the return -- the yield on the property. The costs are higher.
We're achieving good rents. That EUR 80 million has yet to be completely verified, but something in that order, starting with a 7% would be our minimum sort of expectation when there's no land cost.
Steven Boumans
Yes. Okay.
completely clear. And also one question, if I may, regarding the debt.
Do you expect to change your balance sheet approach like reducing maturities or change the hedging ratio, that is one. Two, what's LTV level, would you consider appropriate in today's markets?
And three, last, how do you expect the average cost of debt to develop for the rest of the year later?
Evert Jan van Garderen
Okay. Well, thank you, Steven.
That's quite some forward-looking information you try to get for us. But I hand over to Roberto as he's, of course, always in the middle of what's happening there and the recent deals we've done, which we're very pleased with because we have locked in their margins and of course, funding for the longer term.
So that's nice, but there's always another loan maturing as we say [indiscernible] So Roberto.
Roberto Fraticelli
What's your exact question, Steven, on the loans?
Steven Boumans
Yes, sure. So the first, do you expect to change your balance sheet approach, so maybe reduce maturities since that's cheaper or a change in the hedging ratio?
The second is what LTV level would you consider appropriate still 40%? And then the average cost of debt where that will go?
Roberto Fraticelli
Yes. For concerns, the loans, let's say, we -- it's always a higher negotiation with the banks.
We try, of course, since we have -- we are long-term investors, we try and go for long-term loans. So the policy hasn't changed.
But of course, the market is changes. So sometimes we used to get 15, 20 year loans, and this is no longer the case for quite some time, unfortunately.
So when we are in negotiation with the banks, it really depends on the banks and what we can achieve. I mean what we're seeing at the moment is a preference for banks to go with loans between 3, 5, 7 years, let's say, those are the terms that they usually prefer to engage with.
Of course, we try and go for longer terms. And there are some differences in margins, let's say, for concerns, the period selected.
But I think the main issue is if the bank really wants to go for the longer term or not. What concerns the loan-to-value ratio.
We are very happy with 40%, because, of course, it's nice that we achieved it. We love to keep it.
Of course, you never know, as you know, Steven, what the markets will do in the future. But let's say, for the moment, I think we're happy and that's also where we would like to stay.
If I look at the average cost of debt, I mean, thanks to the fact that we had this 84% coverage hedging. Then as mentioned, we are not expecting a lot of change.
Of course, we are looking with a lot of interest what's happening today, that said with the interest rate markets. I mean what you saw, of course, the main effect was in the market value of the financial derivatives, which shot up.
Average cost of debt, we think it will increase because, of course, interest rates are increasing, but the impact for the moment, as we just said before, should be quite limited. Is that a good answer to your three questions?
Steven Boumans
Yes, absolutely.
Operator
The next question comes from Ina [ Masova ] from the [indiscernible]
Unknown Analyst
Two questions from my side. The first one is on the indexation.
So just to confirm the 3.6% that you have guided for, it's the full indexation that you plan to secure over 2022. There is no rollover into 2023.
And then the follow-on question to that is, what would you expect it to be in 2023, given the partial renewal of leases at different terms. So that's -- I will start with this one.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Well, thank you, Ina, for your very relevant questions about indexation because that's, of course, quite a topic nowadays. The easy part of your question, I will start with, which is the indexation for 2022.
Indeed, what we have put in the presentation also in the interim report, that is really what we expect for 2022. And to be honest, for 3 of the 4 countries that's already pretty secure.
That is the indexation because it has been built and is still built when we do the quarterly rent billing to our tenants. So basically, we are collecting that.
Belgium, as you know, may be much better than we do, but Belgium is slightly different because there, the indexation is depending on the month where lease has started. So we're still, of course, -- for example, in September, October, November, we'll then have to index for that month.
So that is still a bit uncertain. But no, I think for 2022, the picture is very clear, and we are collecting it.
Of course, we still have to also build the fourth quarter where there's also some indexation involved. But so far, as I said in my speech, not really pushed back.
So we were quite happy getting the 2022 indexation. But going forward, it's a different question.
First of all, there is no sort of rollover effect like you mentioned. We're really starting all over again on the 1st of January 2023, with the indexation.
And what will that be? All what we can do for now is monitor, of course, the consumer price index in the various countries.
And they vary, but are, of course, higher levels, much higher levels than what we saw for the indexation of 2022. It's probably too early to tell what it will be because the index, for example, in Sweden to apply.
We know somewhere mid-November. Italy, we only know probably much later, Roberto will agree upon end of December.
For France, we will know a bit more mid-September, we expect because the second quarter indexation is relevant for some of the leases we have in our portfolio in France for the 1st January 2023. And then there's also a part which is based on the third quarter index in France.
And those two, we don't know yet, but mid-September, I think we will know the second quarter. And there's one other element, which is already then known is that the French government has taken the decision that has now been approved in the Senate that for, let's say, the micro companies, the small companies, they have limited the index at a cap of 3.5%, which is still, I think, not at all a bad indexation number.
But if, for example, the index would go to 6% or 7% at least a small companies cannot be indexed more than the 3.5%, which, of course, we understand to protect actually the smaller businesses. So this is in a nutshell what we can say so far about 2023.
Unknown Analyst
If I may, a couple of just clarifications. On the last point about the micro businesses, what would you estimate the impact to be for you?
Let's assume, of course, that the indexation goes beyond 3.5%. And a second question on the indexation more on the discussion so far, you've mentioned there has been no pushback on passing on the current levels of indexation, do you see any potential difficulties certainly with rising energy costs as well that this could be an issue going forward over the course of 2023?
Evert Jan van Garderen
Yes. Well, to maybe first answer the question about the impact for us on our portfolio.
Obviously, we don't yet know what we're going to miss if we only have 3.5% and it is more if the index is higher, then, of course, that is then an amount you don't receive, which we don't know. But what we do know if we have a look at our portfolio and we take this group as small businesses, which, of course, is also part of our portfolio in France.
It is around 25% of our rent roll in France, which would then be this group. And therefore, we would then have a maximum 3.5% indexation on the rent for those tenants.
And the rest is, yes, subject to whatever it will be and that we know in the coming months. In terms of the pushback, yes, indeed, very small, but then we also have to be realistic.
We're all looking, of course, what will happen in the coming months in terms of indexation. And if you would see indexation 7%, 8%, maybe even higher, yes, then we have to see what the response is.
Obviously, we have a low occupancy cost ratio. So there are many tenants who, in principle, have low cost in terms of rent and service charges relatively to what is happening elsewhere in the industry.
I think it's also a matter of what we will see consumer behavior are tenants in a position to pass on inflation, the goods they have to buy at higher prices. Can they sell it at a higher price.
So I think there are a lot of factors involved here. And then we'll see what happens.
Last but not least, we cannot exclude it. There are no signs to that extent, but there could even be in other countries that governments or regulators say, okay, but this is extreme.
So therefore, again, we introduced a cap or a maximum, which maybe just covers 2023. I hope that it's not something will be there for a longer period or we may have to, in some individual cases where indeed, you have another extreme case that you say we have to sit down with the tenant to see whether we can find an amicable solution, but then you'll get more and more back into sort of negotiations we had during the COVID period with real lockdowns.
I don't see that happening. But again, it's -- in the coming months, in particular, an interesting period to see where we're going.
Unknown Analyst
No, that's very clear, Evert Jan. And if I may, one more question, more specifically on your operations in Belgium in Woluwe.
I saw that on the new leases signed, there was a negative reversion. And of course, looking at the OCR levels, they're closer to 15%, so quite a bit above your average.
How would you see perhaps looking for a comment on the sustainability of leases and lease levels in Woluwe. And also, if you would expect if you would expect any future adjustments as well on the rental levels?
And if that could also be reflected in the valuation, although I appreciate the fact that the indexation is a very big supportive factor here as well.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Yes. No, thank you, I know that is something which we reported on Woluwe -- well, let's say, we reported on Belgium, but there's only one asset.
So everybody knows it's Woluwe and there is a minus, which we reported, which clearly has to do with the re-lettings we did. And actually, we sorted out what we call is a part in the middle of a Woluwe -- quite a nice part actually where there were two fashion retailers, which were there already when we bought center, which clearly had overrented units, and we reshuffled them.
And Peter, maybe you want to make some comments there also in relation actually to the valuation of Woluwe.
J. Mills
I think it was a one-off sort of gain of musical chairs we did what we call that part of the aggregate, if you like, part of the building, which was the change from AS Adventure going from a very large store of 2,500 square meters to do their normal assortment. They're strong Belgian retail, as you know.
But to do the normal assortment, which I did in the Esprit unit almost adjoining. So it was -- and we put Fnac in the AS Adventure, which was actually an uplift in rent of some 60%.
But if you take them all together, that we had two, the Mango and what was formerly the We store, sorry the We store and the Esprit store if you take them all together, then there was an overall reduction of rent on those three transactions of some 10%, but a very strong improvement in the commercial mix of the center. So we took the view that it was something we definitely wanted to do and introduce Fnac there and introduce Mango, albeit slightly lower rent.
If we actually look at the other -- those are 3 lettings of the 15. If we look at the other 12 sites in Woluwe, we actually achieved an increase overall on those 12 relettings of 2.7%.
So I would see it as a one-off commercial improvement and the decision to take a slight reduction on those significant lettings, but overall, the pattern of the rental levels is still very stable in Woluwe. There's very good consistent tenant demand to be there.
And in terms of the OCR, the OCR is always going to be the highest because the rents are so much higher there than the remainder of our portfolio. This is a very strong international shopping center, and it commands high rent and that tends to command slightly higher OCRs.
The only other comparable property we probably have is Passage in Paris where we probably see levels not far different. But they're still, I think, fairly normal in a proper fare of property of that tide.
So that is why the OCR in Woluwe is slightly higher. Have I answered your question?
Or is there a bit missing?
Operator
We currently have no questions coming through on the call. [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Steven Boumans.
Steven Boumans
Maybe one final question from me, please. On the investment markets, could you please see -- tell me if you are looking at different assets coming to the market?
And how you are developing versus let's say half a year ago?
Evert Jan van Garderen
Yes. Well, Steven, you can imagine that have we just finished our disposal program of EUR 200 million end of the first quarter.
We have a strong balance sheet. The Liquidity is very good.
I think with the 24 properties we have now left, we're well positioned, very homogeneous portfolio. But I think for us now, to get very adventurous and, again, already looking into acquisitions, et cetera, is probably a bit too much given the circumstance.
I mean, we cannot ignore what's happening around us. I think we're very well positioned -- together with our tenants to navigate again through -- I'm not upfront saying it will be difficult, but we see the clouds ahead of us.
We all read the newspapers. So I think it's not the time to do anything spectacular and stick to your guns at the moment.
So you will not see us do very new steps, et cetera, certainly not in the coming months where I think all we want to do now is wait how this indexation develops. What the consumer behavior will be in the coming months.
It's all over the place, of course, the discussion around energy prices, et cetera. The war in Ukraine.
So no, I think we will -- and therefore, I'm very glad where we are today also financially. We will first monitor and then see what is the best action or response.
Steven Boumans
Okay. Clear.
But do you have some view on where markets are developing in the past, let's say, 6 months?
Evert Jan van Garderen
Well, I think, let's say, the markets where we are in, there was an activity, but it slowed down quite a lot. We know that some transactions were put on hold or even pulled.
So yes, I think in that respect, we have to see what happens really. The holiday season is almost over.
Weather in the second half there will be further activity, but yes, I think a lot of parties will just see and rate. There's one or two deals, Peter, I think where we may see some further activity.
J. Mills
Well, to generalize, Steve. I think there has been more liquidity in the Nordics where we've seen a fairly strong recent activity at the end of last year, particularly going into the early part of this year with sales, which has produced a lot of evidence.
There's been fairly consistent liquidity in anything that touch groceries and the retail parts. But in terms of the future, I think the market is expecting an announcement of a big shopping center sale soon in Germany, which has been a competitive open process, we understand and has brought a number of the larger institutions, which is obviously the bit that's been a bit of the market that's perhaps been missing in the larger lot sizes.
So we understand there could be some transactions arising shortly, but -- and I think that will give the market a lot of confidence if that happens.
Operator
We have no further questions in the queue. I will now hand over to your host for the webcast questions.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Thank you very much. We have a few questions also coming in via the webcast.
I see that there are two questions which also relate to the rental situation on Woluwe in Belgium. I think we provided some color there on what happened.
You did particularly Peter. And also on what kind of return in extensions we could expect.
And I think we there could talk a bit about Woluwe to the lesser extent. So sorry, because there again, in the middle of obtaining quotes for construction.
And indexation for 2023, again, I do hope that I explained what is the situation. It's fairly difficult to assess now what it will be for 2023, but we will know much more, I think, by the time we publish our third quarter results, at least for France, I would then think we have some better view.
And for Italy and Sweden, we have to wait until the end of the year, I'm afraid. Let me see.
There is a question, and I will read it out to you. What do you expect for consumer confidence next year on your commercial results?
Again, I think a difficult question because it's all forward-looking and almost -- yes, you have to speculate how the consumer will behave -- and the answer is we simply don't know, of course. We do know that there is a lot of, let's say, low confidence at the moment if we read the newspapers and the statistics.
And it probably will depend which country you're looking at, particularly how hard consumers are maybe hit in that country. for example, due to energy prices, I think we clearly have a difference in France, where it's maybe less dependent on import whereas Italy maybe is more dependent.
But it's also, I think, probably not only about spending but also maybe a shift in spending. We could clearly maybe see that consumers go for low price.
Purchases may decide to not buy the next television or maybe furniture or other bigger items, which doesn't necessarily mean that we, therefore, would be impacted. I think it also is important how we see this consumer maybe shift among certain categories.
But I don't think we can say much more. Roberto any feeling or any...
Roberto Fraticelli
I mean, we've been monitoring this, of course, as you can imagine, for quite some time now. and we are looking at signs in the turnovers.
But so far, turnovers have performed very well. And of course, with all these questions about what's going to happen in the coming months.
We are looking at consumer confidence, I think, going down. But how does that reflect on our turnover, I think that also mix I agree fully with ever [indiscernible]
Evert Jan van Garderen
Okay. Are there more questions in the webcast?
We have here a question. The direct investment result for the first half year is EUR 1.21 and the outlook to EUR 2.20 to EUR 2.30.
What is the difference in half year 1 against half year 2? I think, let's say, of course, this is an outlook.
It's not that it's carved in stone, but there are a few elements to consider when you look at the 6-month result and then the outlook for the full year. It's not simply multiplying the first half year direct investment result by two to get to the year number.
There are a few effects, which I would like to highlight. First of all, we sold property in the first quarter, okay, that was not, let's say, a major amount, but it was still a substantial amount.
So we missed that income. There's also an effect of actually a better bad debt provision where we are now today than year-end.
So we had to or we could reverse some of the bad debt, which, of course, was a positive effect. Also, the Swedish krona remains to be seen, how that will work out.
It's quite volatile at the moment, it's much weaker than at some time earlier in the year, but it can bounce back. But of course, we have 1/4 of the portfolio in the Swedish krona.
So when you prepare an outlook, you have to take these things into account and do some stress testing. And yes, then, of course, we will also carefully look at the fourth quarter to be invoiced and see what is happening there.
So these are a few elements which we have to take into account in order to arrive at our outlook. I hope that answered the question.
Let me see -- okay. Another question, would you, at some point, consider buying back shares?
It's buying back shares is a theme, which we have seen already for many years. And it's, of course, something always mentioned in particularly when you look at a share price and the net asset value of the share.
And if there is a large discount, of course, always this question, which comes up. But for now, we're very happy with our balance sheet.
Roberto just explained on that and also the sort of level we have in mind for the future. Yes, we'd rather stay cautious, and we have, of course, our dividend policy now announced.
We think still that the company is certainly attractive for those who are looking for yield, and therefore, a dividend. We can never exclude it buying back shares.
We do have some authority to do so up to 10%. But for now, I think it's not really on the agenda.
Would we have a loan-to-value ratio of 20% or 25%? Yes, [indiscernible] I think then we would have a different view.
But for now, we stick to where we are. Let me see.
And then there is a question about footfall in July or August? Peter, can you may say something about that?
J. Mills
Yes. No.
I mean it -- we get our footfall numbers slightly quicker than our turnover numbers, which we tend to get in the middle of the following month. So we've just been able to mentioned this morning that our July turnover anyway, is the same as June, roughly at 5% to 5.5% plus compared to the months of 2019 comparable months.
Footfall in July and August has maintained the same rate. So just under 90%, very little variance between the countries.
Actually, there's been strong staycations. So the footfalls looking pretty settled.
The Swedish numbers have been the strongest and that has sort of followed the turnover numbers as well. and they have easily reached the pre-pandemic levels.
Perhaps the big change in the 7 weeks of, say, July and the first few weeks of August has been a marked improvement in Woluwe, which we've seen, which very often is trading at the pre-pandemic levels on certain days, but overall, it's around about 95%. So big improvement there.
So there was no sort of indications of any flattening in the footfall. In fact, if anything, it's slowly improving.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Okay. Well, I think we have answered that question as well.
And I think that was the list. Is there -- or maybe, operator, is there a question you received meanwhile when we were discussing the webcast questions?
Operator
There are no further questions on the line.
Evert Jan van Garderen
Okay. Well, thank you very much.
Then I would like to thank everybody attending this conference call, both via the webcast and on the call directly for their participation and their questions. which were very nice to have.
And hopefully, we have answered them to full satisfaction or at least some satisfaction. And yes, let's see what the coming months are going to bring also for the market, but certainly also for Eurocommercial I think we're still well positioned, but let's see.
So for now, I would like to thank everybody and say goodbye.
J. Mills
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your handsets.
Host, please remain connected and await further instruction.