Operator
Welcome to the Fraport Q1 2026 Question and Answer Session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press * 1 1 on your telephone.
You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press * 1 1 again.
Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand over to Florian Fuchs, SVP, Head of Finance and IR.
Florian Fuchs
Yes, thank you, Heidi, and warm welcome also from my side to the Q1 Question and Answer Session. With me at the table, we got Dr.
Matthias Zieschang, our CFO, and as always with our presentations, please keep our cautionary language in mind. Risks and opportunities may arise with forward-looking statements.
We also kindly ask you to limit your question to the number of two so that everyone in the line will have the opportunity to raise some questions. Having said this and without further ado, I'd like to hand over to Heidi to commence with the Question and Answer Session.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press * 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
If you wish to cancel your request, please press * 1 1 again. We will take our first question.
The first question comes from the line of Elodie Rall from J.P. Morgan.
Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Elodie Rall
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question.
I'll try to limit to two then. On the presentation, you discussed a lot the jet fuel supply potential constraints, and that is clearly a downside risk to your guidance.
Maybe could you elaborate the conversation that you have with the German government and on reports that we've seen on disruptions to supply through the NATO pipeline and maybe comment on where the refineries supplying the pipeline source their crude from? That would be quite helpful to understand the risk around the jet fuel supply issue.
Just a second quick question on Lufthansa's strikes, what kind of level of disruption did you assume in the guidance for the rest of the year? Thank you very much.
Matthias Zieschang
Thank you for your question. Good afternoon also from my side.
Regarding your question, what's about new regarding availability of jet fuel? Clear answer is, we don't know.
We are looking forward based on the working hypothesis that there's always an availability of jet fuel given. We are in close contact with the German governments.
They told and they tell us that there's enough jet fuel available, that there is in the moment no risk. This is the information which we have and we base all our guidance on these assumptions and this information.
Back to facts. When you look on the refinery capacity in Europe, that's the problem so to say Europe that the overall refinery capacity in Europe is below 100%.
It's in the core countries like UK, France, Italy, Germany is about 50% own production. With other words, 50% must come from other sources, wherever these sources are located.
At the end of the day, it's also a question of willingness to pay relatively high prices for jet fuel. Based on this assumption, we assume that the availability is given, of course, based on very high prices.
Another fact which is given, we are receiving jet fuel primarily via two pipelines. One pipeline is a so-called NATO pipeline, who is servicing also the US bases with jet fuel.
Also based on this fact that we have this direct link, we assume that if there would be a shortage, then of course there must be a, what the people are going to tell a triage, or priority system. That's unlikely event that we will be delivered with the highest priority due to the critical infrastructure case of our airport.
I think I have Lufthansa strikes.
Elodie Rall
Yeah. For the guidance.
Matthias Zieschang
Lufthansa strikes. We gave a range and now we made a correction in such a way that today we're saying we are ending up at the lower end of the range.
This has to do exactly with Lufthansa. Let me say on the good side, we see as planned and as scheduled the ramp-up of the capacity of Condor, they are, to say, delivering what they have promised.
We also see positive elements from other airlines. For example, yesterday we received the information that the German government has, together with the Chinese government, has increased the bilateral numbers of flights from and to Germany.
For example, now Air China are increasing their frequencies, Frankfurt to Beijing from 10 to 12 frequencies. China Eastern is going to increase up from the 7th of June from 7 to 9 frequencies, Frankfurt to Shanghai.
We have China Southern going from 3 frequencies to 7 and increasing Guangzhou on one side and opening a new route to Ürümqi. These are good news.
We will see more incoming traffic from China. This is good for the number of passengers, is always good.
It's also good for the purchasing power inside our shops. These are the good news.
On the negative side, we have the reduction of Lufthansa, and we have to see what is the net impact. We assume still a positive increase of offered seats during the full year, but of course not this volume which we had in mind when we made our financial plan at the beginning.
That's the reason why we have a little bit reduced the guidance regarding the passenger expectation for Frankfurt Airport. At the end of the day, we have a seat capacity or an increase of seat capacity which is lower than this what we assumed the beginning of the year.
On the other side, we have the question mark regarding seat load factor. This is always the second variable in this system, but we are still optimistic that we will see a lower but solid growth of passengers at Frankfurt Airport and always subject to this base assumption that jet fuel is available.
Elodie Rall
Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
Far my answers.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question.
The question comes from Carlos Caburrasi from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Carlos Caburrasi
Hi Matthias. Hi Florian.
Thank you for taking my questions. First, I was wondering if you could give us some indications of the early days of Terminal 3 in terms of retail and commercial trends.
I was just wondering if the performance so far is in line with your expectations and if you could quantify the improvement you have observed on a per-passenger basis. Second, a follow-up on what you were just discussing on airline capacity.
Given what you've mentioned about Condor's plans, I assume there's no risk at all, but I was just wondering if you've had any discussions with them regarding a potential delay in the allocation of new aircraft or something like that due to the jet fuel uncertainties. Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
First question, retail performance in T3, today the second wave has been reallocated from Terminal 2 to Terminal 3, and further two waves will happen in the next 6 weeks. This what we have now as data is anecdotal evidence.
Because the number of passengers, the volumes are very low, and you have to see the first wave was determined by Middle East carriers, which have, given the crisis and the war in Iran, relatively low seat load factors in the moment. The number of passengers is not the biggest one, but the first sentiment or feedback from retailers is positive.
Again, this is anecdotal evidence. We have to see when all the waves are through what are the final numbers.
Again, in the moment, it looks very positive. Again numbers we will have when the fourth wave is through, then we have the first weeks with on an annual basis and 10 million passengers.
The whole bunch of airlines reallocated and then we will see in the first weeks what is the final outcome of our new concepts and new marketplace. Regarding Condor, there is no threat of availability of new aircrafts because they just run A330neos on one side for the long-haul destinations, and on the other side, they have A320 and A321s, also neos, for cont as well as domestic flights.
The short-haul aircrafts are there. They are increasing by reallocating aircrafts from other German airports to Frankfurt.
That is just a management decision. Regarding the long-haul fleet, they are expecting, how many is it?
How many A330s?
Florian Fuchs
Eight further.
Matthias Zieschang
Eight further A330s and coming
Florian Fuchs
from Airbus,
Matthias Zieschang
and there is, what we have heard, there is absolutely no risk that there will be a delay. With other words, the ramp-up path of Condor is given, is protected by the delivery pipeline of Airbus, and we don't see any risk or threat that they are not delivering what they have promised to us.
Carlos Caburrasi
Okay. Thank you, Matthias.
Matthias Zieschang
Jet fuel availability is again the same as Lufthansa. Jet fuel is given or is not given, but we assume that it's always given in the next couple of months.
Carlos Caburrasi
Okay. Good.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question, and the question comes from Graham Hunt from Jefferies.
Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Graham Hunt
Thanks very much, and two questions from me, please. Just again staying on jet fuel, apologies, but maybe if we could just go to the other platforms in your portfolio and just give us a little bit of color in terms of maybe the conversations you've had there with the local governments and the status of availability just in your other major international assets.
Then second question just on retail. Q1 spend per pax in the shopping was sort of similarly weak as we ended 2025, but now with T3, a little bit more traffic coming from China, could we see that trend sort of bottom out and turn positive for the rest of the year?
Is that what we should be expecting? Just wondering what you're seeing there on the shopping spend per pax, which has been weak for some time now.
Thanks.
Matthias Zieschang
First starting again with jet fuel availability in our international portfolio. When you look on the Americas, there's absolutely no problem.
Why? Because North America as well as South America, they are producing oil.
They are net exporters and they have also sufficient refinery capacity to transform oil into jet fuel. With other words, there's no exposure regarding Iran war.
Of course, they have to pay also higher prices because of the world market price and a world market, but availability in the Americas is given. Going to Europe, coming back to this what I said, 50% refinery capacity in the main countries.
Regarding Greece, we have heard that in Greece itself the refinery capacity is higher, so that is from a theoretical perspective exposure should be lower, and regarding Asia, we don't run an airport in Asia, but we have of course destinations going to and from Asia. Here it's a little bit unclear what is going on in China, in India, South Korea.
Normally these are countries who are net exporters of jet fuel because they have a huge jet fuel refinery capacity, it's not the problem of refinery capacities in these countries. It's the question is enough oil over there to use the oil in the refineries to produce the jet fuel.
What we have heard behind the curtain, they are producing like hell and increasing their storages to be protected in a case that the worst-case scenario should happen. It's a little bit unclear what is going on in Southeast Asia, but in the moment we also don't expect any hiccup over there.
Retail, we have a different, let me say situation. If you make a further drill down of the spend per pax number, going to the several items, we have F&B is running very well, media is extremely running good, services is good, parking itself besides spend per pax is always good.
Also fashion is relatively good, the only and main problem is the revenues in duty free/travel value. Here we have a significant reduction, and we are sitting together with Heinemann brothers, who are managing especially travel value duty free places, what to do in the future to improve this situation.
It's a really differentiated situation which we have in the moment. We have a lot of good things, and we have one main item who is responsible for the reduction in the spend per pax, and again, this is duty free/travel value products.
Of course, China will help us now. This what I mentioned, this increase of frequencies, this is in favor of us, and also the coming back of the Middle East traffic.
We know from the airlines, for example Emirates, they are back on two frequencies per day, I think in next or next two weeks. They are coming back to the three frequencies per day which they had before the crisis and before the war.
Today, I can see already the A380 coming back to Frankfurt. We have heard from the management team here in Frankfurt from Emirates that the seat load factor is relatively good now, coming back from low numbers.
That we expect a relatively good recovery always subject to what will happen with the war over there. The current information flow from these airlines is relatively optimistic.
Bring it all together, we are not pessimistic regarding the next couple of months.
Graham Hunt
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question.
The question comes from Tobias Fromme from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Tobias Fromme
Hello. Thank you for taking my questions.
The first one is on traffic. I just wanted to hone in on the load factor.
How much of your sort of hopes to hit the lower end of the guide is based on an elevated load factor for the rest of the year? Then secondly on ground handling, when I particularly look at the ground handling revenues, 10% up year-over-year, is that the trajectory that we should expect for the rest of the year, or as the comps basically get stronger, do you expect that to be a little bit lower than the 10%?
Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
Load factor, we assume as of today a constant load factor compared to the previous year. This is what I mentioned.
This is a little bit the question mark. We have on one side the seat capacity increase.
We still expect an increase, and then the question is, will this be supported by a seat load factor increase? What we saw during the beginning of the war when the direct flights to Middle East destinations have been stopped, the traffic was looking for other ways and this led to a situation that on other routes to eastern destinations, the seat load factor went up.
We have to look whether this is sustainable or just a temporary phenomenon, but I would say from a today's perspective, there could be an upside chance. In the moment, I don't see a downside risk.
Again, this is always subject to geopolitical topics which might occur overnight. Ground handling, here we are happy with the performance.
Already last year, the team in this segment showed a good performance based on gaining or regaining higher market share on one side, productivity on the other side, also price increases with a lot of customers which we have in our portfolio. This continues with this year.
Also the ridiculous wage increases are over now. We still have too high wage increases, but not any longer double-digit numbers.
This combination, more volumes, above the normal growth rates because we are gaining market share, in combination with productivity increases, lead to a situation that despite relatively high mid single-digit wage increases, we were able to improve our numbers. We saw now the Q1 numbers which are clearly better than the previous year, and guidance was flat, but there is some chance or probability that at the end of the year we will end up with a better number, above previous year.
Again, this is not a new guidance, but just showing a chance which we see in this segment.
Tobias Fromme
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press * 1 1 on your telephone.
We will take our next question, and the question comes from the line of Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Cristian Nedelcu
Hi, thank you very much. Two questions on ground handling if possible, please.
The first one, could you tell us is there any update on the negotiations on the contract for ground handling with Lufthansa? One would assume in the current environment Lufthansa may be a bit more demanding when negotiating for that contract.
Any color you could provide there and in terms of your expectations of the outcome of that contract. Secondly, could you tell us in ground handling, how do you plan your workforce through the summer, the number of FTEs versus the prior year?
I'm just asking from the perspective that it seems that the airlines are adjusting capacity more often than they usually do over the last couple of months. It seems at least from outside it seems that it may be challenging to find a balance between the right number of employees and the exact number of flight takeoffs and landings that you will see.
Is that challenging? How are you thinking at the FTE growth year-over-year and any more color there would help.
Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
First question, what is the situation regarding the contractual situation? We are now in close contact with Lufthansa.
We are in close negotiation. We showed them our losses in the last couple of years with this contract.
It's a huge, accumulated loss which we had, and this was, to say, a subsidy for Lufthansa. We said the party is now over.
Up from 1st of April next year, there must be a full cost coverage with the new contract, and based on this, and we showed what have been our losses, what is the gap, and what is the percentage to close the gap. This is on the table, and we said there's no headroom to discuss because we're not any longer willing to pay subsidies for making a business for a partner of us.
They have to accept it or not. Full stop, there's nothing in between.
There's no potential for us to saying, yeah, we find a compromise. There is no compromise.
The result is cost-covering or no contract. Workforce in summer, this is a good question because one thing is clear, the growth will not be in such dimension what we saw at the beginning of the year.
With other words, our resource plan is not any longer valid, and we have immediately reacted, and so to say overnight, we stopped further recruiting in ground handling to adapt, to say, the workforce to the reduced growth expectation now, also especially during the summer season. With other words, looking on the whole workforce here at Frankfurt Airport, that's the whole site, we see of course a further increase in Q2, but this has to do with Terminal 3, which has a much greater and bigger dimension like Terminal 2, this is a necessary number of employees to run this huge infrastructure.
In ground handling itself, we stopped the increase of workforce, we run now the business with these number of employees which we today have in this segment. With other words, the number of employees now in the middle of this year is a peak for Frankfurt site, and looking forward in the coming years till 2030, this is not a new information, now we're going then to reduce the overall workforce year by year, step by step, using artificial intelligence, robotics, digitalization, all things, and also in combination with further productivity measures to bring down step by step the workforce to have a compensation element against future expected wage increases, which will not come down to a level which would be necessary so to say to run the German industry on a efficient basis.
Cristian Nedelcu
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question, and the question comes from the line of Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays.
Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Andrew Lobbenberg
Oh, hi there. Can I ask about Lima?
It seems to rather underperform. You've built a beautiful new airport and beautiful runways, and we don't have many people there.
What is the prospect for getting that going and driving the full economics of that? Then, can I just come back to the handling negotiations with Lufthansa?
You're standing all tough and you've got to break even and they've got to take it all or have no contract. They do like to highlight the multihub strategy and their ability to redeploy capacity around the place.
Whilst you've got stability with the airport charges on a 4-year contract, this is potentially a significant increase in their cost per turn at Frankfurt that could make Frankfurt less attractive to them at the margin. Are you not concerned about that, or does it fit into some bigger, broader part of the relationship with Lufthansa?
Thanks.
Matthias Zieschang
We think we have a good and productive and cooperative relationship to Lufthansa regarding a service which we are offering. I think it's absolutely clear that at the end of the days we are talking about a personnel-intensive business.
It's a body lease. Yeah, 70% of our opex in ground handling is determined by the workforce, that at the end of the day whoever will use this service, he has to pay for the opex.
This will be a significant step-up, but due to the fact that as I mentioned, we subsidize his service in the last 5 years in favor of Lufthansa, and this is now over. The only thing what we expect from him is to pay a fair price for the costs which are there, which are given.
You mentioned the multihubbing system. That also the second-largest hub of Lufthansa is Munich.
In Munich, Lufthansa made a decision, I think this was 1 year ago, to make a self-service regarding ground handling. In former times, they have been serviced first of all by Munich Airport, then I think they switched over to Swissport, then they cancelled the contract and now they are doing their own ground handling.
What I have heard, and this is not a surprise, that the costs of doing the service on your own account is extremely high. Everybody is free to choose and everybody is responsible for his own fate so to say, and again, they can use our service and they can do it for their own or it can go to another service provider.
If they would go to another service provider, then we are stopping our business, is also okay. We are not willing to continue with subsidizing an airline.
I think this is absolutely clear. I think Lufthansa is also aware of this.
First question was regarding Lima, was it correct? Was difficult because in the line there was always a background noise, and so it's difficult to understand your question.
Lima itself, capex is through, which is good. Now we have a brilliant infrastructure with a capacity up to 40 million.
In the moment, the financial outcome in '26 will be as expected, a clear and significant improvement compared to the EBITDA number from last year. Nevertheless, the growth in the moment is not in line with this what we expected.
This has nothing to do with the airport, which is brilliant. This has to do with some airlines and who are reallocating, have some topics, and we assume that this is a temporary phenomenon, and the airlines, or one of these airlines, is coming back or going back to the old growth plan so that the weakness in the passenger numbers in Lima regarding the expected growth rates is just temporary.
Andrew Lobbenberg
You don't think it links to the dispute over connecting fees? Or does it, and you think it will just come to terms with it?
Matthias Zieschang
We are talking about an amount of money which is compared to jet fuel cost to all is nothing. It's a joke, yeah?
I don't know why this topic is raised, and it's a very minimal percentage of your opex. It's not relevant.
This is not the reason for the growth weakness in the moment. Of course, it's a nice try to bring down fees, and perhaps I would do the same, but this is not the explanation why they are not growing in the moment.
It's the same if you look now we have regarding jet fuel prices, we have a price increase of significantly nearly 200% increase, yeah? This has an huge impact on the P&L.
If you take this number now, the current jet fuel prices, and in a long-haul airline has 30% to 40% opex based on jet fuel prices, and if this double overnight, then you have a real impact. They are still flying, of course, perhaps with lower growth rates or no growth rates.
Then talking about 50 cents airport fees, this is really comedy.
Andrew Lobbenberg
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question.
Your next question comes from the line of Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Matthias Zieschang
We can't hear you.
Operator
Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Can you check you've not muted your line? If you're happy, we will move to the next question.
Matthias Zieschang
We can move on to Nicolas. Marcin?
Now. Now it's okay.
That's
Marcin Wojtal
okay. Apologies.
I had some technical problems here. All right.
Okay. Let me ask the question.
I think we are seeing an environment of airline ticket prices which are rising and potentially could rise even further. That is obviously because of the elevated jet fuel price.
What is your view on price elasticity of demand? Shouldn't there be some demand destruction if we are going to see significant double-digit increases in airline ticket prices?
Matthias Zieschang
Sure. There is a negative price elasticity.
In other words, whenever ticket prices went up, we have a negative impact on the demand side. This is clear, and this works already now.
That's the clear explanation why the growth rates at all destinations are lower than this what everybody expected some months ago. This is absolutely clear.
The question is, is the impact of fuel prices so significant that, given 150%, 180% jet fuel price increases, the absolute amount of passengers is lower than before the crisis? Here in the moment, we see as a negative scenario a constant development of passenger numbers, or let me say a reduced growth.
In the moment, we can't see markets where the growth numbers are real negative just coming from the increase of jet fuel prices. Looking forward, if this high level would continue, it's absolutely for sure that this would have a negative impact on the long-term CAGR regarding passenger growth rates, but not in a way that the CAGR is negative.
It's just a reduced positive number then.
Marcin Wojtal
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question.
The next question comes from the line of Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Nicolas Mora
Yes, afternoon, gentlemen. Sorry, just two quick ones.
First one, looking just at the big picture coming out of Q1. You've got slower traffic at Frankfurt in mind, you've got good ground handling.
What gives you the confidence basically the guidance is still holding? I think consensus is a bit below, is a bit basically hesitating.
Where do you think you're doing better than expected just a couple of months ago? Is it just on your cost handle, just on ground handling, just to see where we could flex a little bit our models?
That's the first one. Second one, can you give us a bit of color on the outlook into summer on your airports, near, let's say near conflict zones, think about Antalya in Turkey, Bulgaria, even Greece.
What are you seeing right now in terms of booking trends? What are your customers seeing and what kind of feedback you're getting?
That would be very helpful. Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
Coming with the overall picture regarding our four segments. From a today's perspective, might be tomorrow total change if some geopolitical things also would change.
You already mentioned one segment, this is ground handling. Here in ground handling, based on higher market share than planned, also good productivity progress and improvements, here there's a chance that we even end up better than guided in the beginning of the year.
This is an upside, and with a relatively good probability that this will also be the case at the end of the year regardless what the passenger growth is. Why?
Because what we gained on market share against our competitor is so much more compared to the passenger weakness that this is an fully overcompensation of this effect. In Aviation and in Retail & Real Estate, it's based on lower passenger numbers, lower growth numbers, of course, what we have in our internal scenarios, it's lower than this what we had calculated at the beginning.
There's a downside in both segments, but still a commitment to the qualitative guidance that in both segments, we are better in '26 compared to '25, but reduced to this what we saw at the beginning of the year. Then we have the last segment, International Activities.
Here it's in total always a relatively optimistic outlook, but if you go through the several assets, it's different. Starting with Americas, in Lima itself what I mentioned on the opex side is good, retail is extremely good, passenger growth is disappointing, but nevertheless, as I mentioned, the EBITDA in '26 will be significantly higher than '25.
In Europe, also Brazil is fine, both airports, Fortaleza as well as the other one. Porto Alegre.
Greece, the booking numbers are strong. If you look on the traffic numbers in the first 3 months are always strong.
Also April, what we have heard, preliminary figures are always very good. It seems to be that we see here a very solid single-digit passenger increase after a couple of years in the past which showed an overperformance year by year.
The show continues, and we are absolutely optimistic regarding Greece. Bulgaria, yeah, it's also improving.
Slovenia is doing, the passenger numbers in Q1 is always good, but in total this is not that relevant, but everything is running in the right direction. We have Antalya.
It's not part of the EBITDA, but at equity. Here the picture is unclear.
We had a strong March. We will see a weak April, but determined by a lot of domestic traffic, which is not relevant because the money was generated by the international incoming traffic.
Here we have to see, and the season really starts May, June, and here we have to see who is coming and how many. Turkey is unclear.
What did I forget? Nothing, huh?
In total, if you put all the assets together, in average we see still a clear and significant improvement compared to '25. That's the overall picture.
Nicolas Mora
All right. Thank you very much, Matthias.
Very helpful. Thanks.
Matthias Zieschang
Welcome.
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, you will need to press * 1 1 on your telephone.
We will take our next question, and the question comes from José Manuel Arroyas from Santander. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
José Manuel Arroyas
Hello, good afternoon. Two questions, please.
One is on the ground handling contract with Lufthansa. When is the date by when you expect this contract to be signed?
My second question is on the refinancing strategy and the cost of debt for the remainder of 2026. As in the past year, there is about €1 billion of gross debt to be refinanced in Fraport.
Do you expect this new debt to be more costly or to be about the same it currently is? Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
First topic, again ground handling contract. Normally in the next couple of months the contract should be closed.
Not from our perspective, but from the perspective of Lufthansa because if they don't want to continue with us, they have to change, and there's only one competitor in the market, this is Swissport. To reallocate a significant number of aircrafts to another service provider who has market share of less than 10%, he needs time to prepare himself for this alternative.
Even as of today, I have no fantasy if this theoretical case of a change from us to another competitor, how this should work. This is, again, this is not our responsibility.
To make the long story short, time is running, and Lufthansa now should decide what to do because the time is running not in favor of them. Refinancing cost, we have two elements.
On average, if a total cost of debt for the group, 3.4% long-term money. This is a combination of interest rates here at the Fraport AG balance sheet, which is below 3.4%, then we have indebtedness, project financing, non-recourse at our international assets, of course with an average interest rate which is higher than 3.4%, this is a weighted average.
Looking forward, you mentioned the €1 billion, which has to be more or less refinanced year by year. We are not going to refinance this total amount of money.
Why? Because now there's a clear decision to go step by step down with our huge liquidity because we think it's not any longer necessary to have such a high amount of liquidity.
With other words, just a part of this refinancing necessity, to say, is refinanced. The other one is coming from melting down the existing liquidity.
Regarding this, what will be brought to the market, we have two phenomenon. On one side, our interest margin is becoming lower and lower because the risk of running an airport compared to other industries in Germany like chemical industry, automotive industry, etc., we are in the moment the better debt than other industries, and this is in favor of us, banks are willing to give us the money to lower margins, which is good of us.
Then the unknown variable or unknown parameter is what will be the shape of the interest rate curve in the next couple of months or quarters. Here everybody expect some increases from the ECB on the short end.
The question is, what will be the impact for long-term money? I would say the probability that the long-term interest rates are going up is a little bit higher.
This is our expectation. The combination of lower margins on one side and higher interest rates on the other side is more or less leveling out.
To make the long story short, we see a slight increase of the total cost of indebtedness in the next 18 months, but we will end up with 3.X, also closer to 4%, but not to overcome 4%, and we feel absolutely secured against volatility regarding the shape of the interest rate curve.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question.
The question comes from the line of Christian Cohrs from Warburg Research. Please go ahead.
Your line is open.
Christian Cohrs
Yes, hello. Good afternoon.
Just two questions left for me. Coming back, sorry for that, to the ground handling topic with Lufthansa.
Assuming that you will not find an agreement with Lufthansa and Lufthansa will go away, would this actually mean that you will face a major restructuring expense and layoffs in ground handling then as of next year, or maybe you have to book a large provision at the end of this year? Second question relates to the new border control system that is in place since April, the new entry-exit system.
There were various reports about delays and travel chaos at some airports after the implementation. What is the situation currently in Frankfurt?
Are you fine with that?
Matthias Zieschang
Again ground handling, of course, if for this case, I wouldn't say likely or unlikely, that Lufthansa would change the ground handling provider, then of course we have to wind up our business and there would be one-off cost items. That's for sure.
Then I'm also happy, huh? To make it clear.
We continue with profitability or we stop it. There's nothing in between.
Regarding EES, European entry system, this is a real problem in Europe because the system is not working fine. It's terrible system, and this leads to delays, and we are in close contact with the federal police here in Germany how to overcome this problem.
It's not a simple topic, in other words, and we try to find solutions that the introduction of this system, which is not really running in a proper way, that we were able together with the police to handle the system, which is a European problem, has nothing to do with Frankfurt. Each and every airport in Europe has these problem.
It's again a fantastic move of Brussels, yeah? We are always used to have such fantastic ideas, and we have to live with it and we try to overcome the problems.
It's a given problem.
Christian Cohrs
Okay. Understood.
Thank you.
Matthias Zieschang
Welcome.
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn back to Florian Fuchs.
Florian Fuchs
Yes, thank you everybody for the good questions, thank you Matthias for the answers. We look forward being in touch maybe on the phone, on the web, or on the road, and with that, have a nice afternoon and speak soon.
Bye-bye.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.
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