Operator
Hello, everyone. My name is Sophie, and I will be your conference operator today.
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Meren's Third Quarter 2025 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions].
This event is being recorded, and the recording will be available for playback on the company's website. I will now pass the meeting on to Mr.
Shahin Amini, Meren's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr.
Amini.
Shahin Amini
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Meren's Third Quarter 2025 Results Presentation.
I am joined today by Roger Tucker, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Aldo Perracini, our Chief Financial Officer; Oliver Quinn, our Chief Commercial and Operating Officer. We will begin with prepared remarks and then open the floor for questions.
Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. These are based on current assumptions and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.
You can find a full discussion of these risks in our regulatory filings that are available in SEDAR+ and on our website. Also, all dollar amounts in this presentation on U.S.
dollars unless otherwise stated. With that, I will now hand over to Roger.
Roger, we are ready for you. Please go ahead.
Roger Tucker
I am pleased to present another strong quarter with continuing delivery on shareholder returns and delivery. The completion of the prime amalgamation marked a step change for Meren, and we have now honored our enhanced dividend policy with the declaration of the fourth quarterly distribution of $25 million, taking the total payout for 2025 to $100 million.
So together with our share buybacks year-to-date, we have delivered meaningful shareholder capital returns of approximately $109 million. We have also materially reduced our outstanding RBL debt amount to underpin a stronger, more agile company that is built to deliver long-term returns and withstand market volatility.
These deliverables reiterate the quality of production assets in Nigeria and the company's financial strength and our disciplined capital management. Maintaining a strong balance sheet continues to be one of our top priorities.
Overall, it's been a resilient quarter and we've delivered on we set out to do, reinforcing our financial position and our commitment to creating long-term value for our shareholders. I'm also pleased to report that we have completed the integration of Prime and the combined organization is working very well and seamlessly under the Meren banner.
I will now hand over for Aldo to give a more detailed commentary on the quarter's performance.
Aldo Perracini
Thanks, Roger. Now turning to our production performance.
In the third quarter, we delivered production of 31,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day on a working interest basis and 35,600 barrels per day on an entitlement basis. This brings us to a working interest of 31,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 36,300 barrels of oil equivalent on an entitlement basis for the first 9 months of the year, both of which sit within our 2025 guidance, which remains unchanged from the second quarter.
Performance remained steady quarter-on-quarter, supported by strong contributions from the newly commissioned Egina wells and a successful well intervention on an Akpo well. These gains helped offset temporary impacts on plant and maintenance activity.
With the Akpo and Egina drilling campaign now on pause, work is focused on integrating for the seismic and well data to define and mature the next set of infield targets. Turning on to the next slide.
In the third quarter, Meren completed 3 oil liftings for around 3 million barrels at a realized all-in sales price of $70.8 per barrel. Year-to-date, we have completed 9 liftings of around 9 million barrels at an average owing sales price of $74.9 per barrel, which compares favorably to the Dated Brent at an average of $70.9 per barrel.
We have 3 cargoes scheduled for the first quarter of 2025. Two of these are hedged at $64.6 per barrel with 1 cargo unhedged that will be sold at spot.
For 2026, we have hedged 2.6 million barrels of oil at an average Dated Brent of $62.4 per barrel. The sales achieved in the first 9 months, combined with our hedging strategy for the remainder of the year, creates a prudent balance between risk management and market exposure, reducing volatility risk while preserving potential upside.
This approach ensures we remain well positioned to generate solid cash flows through to the end of the year regardless of market fluctuations. Moving on to the financials.
For Q3, we delivered an EBITDAX of $120 million, bringing total EBITDAX year-to-date to $368 million. Cash flow from operations before working capital came in at $66 million for the quarter with reported CapEx of $22 million, largely driven by the web intervention in Akpo.
Free cash flow before debt service and shareholder distributions was $126 million. Overall, for the first 9 months, free cash flow before debt service and shareholder return stands at $229 million.
We are on track to meet our management guidance as revised in Q2, and our full year guidance ranges are unchanged. Let's now turn to cash flows for the period.
We closed the quarter with a cash balance of about $177 million compared to an opening balance of $267 million at the end of Q2. We achieved about $66 million in cash flow from operations before working capital adjustments and interest and had positive working capital movement of $81 million, most of which about $63 million was due to trade receivables driven by the timing of cargo liftings and receipt of sale proceeds between the second and the third quarters.
Our major cash outlays were RBL repayments, dealing distributions and capital expenditures. In line with our approach to disciplined balance sheet management we proactively paid down our RPO balance by $18 million, bringing our total debt to $360 million.
This has been paid down further post quarter, which I will touch on shortly. In line with our new payout policy, we made our third dividend payment of $25 million, bringing dividend distributions to $75 million year-to-date.
And as Roger had mentioned, we are pleased to have announced our fourth dividend distribution of $25 million to be paid next month. Through disciplined cash management, we have materially reduced our debt interest expenses strengthen the balance sheet and establish a solid platform for sustainable growth and value creation.
Moving on to the next slide. Deleveraging the business has been a priority for us since assuming Primes are beyond facility following the amalgamation.
The balance was $750 million at completion. We have looked to approach this proactively and in a disciplined manner.
At the end of Q3, our RBL balance stood at $360 million, reflecting $390 million in repayments since taking this facility on, contributing towards a meaningful reduction in interest costs. Post quarter, we paid down $430 million, bringing total repayments to $420 million year-to-date.
At the end of the quarter, we had a net debt of $183 million and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.4x, well below our onetime ceiling for the year, demonstrating our strong credit profile. We will continue to optimize our capital allocation strategy, strengthening Meren's financial profile and positioning us to deliver value for shareholders.
I will now hand over to Oliver to take you through our business outlook.
Oliver Quinn
Thanks, Aldo. Turning to Slide 10 on Nigeria.
Following the break in the Akpo and Egina drilling campaign in Q3, work is underway to restart the campaign. The current drilling break has provided time to fully interpret the latest 4D seismic data and identify several future infill drilling opportunities.
Operationally, progress is being made to secure a deepwater rig to drill the Akpo Far East nearfield prospect, followed by further development wells on both Akpo and Egina in late 2026. Akpo Far East is an infrastructure-led exploration opportunity with an unrisked best estimate of greater than 150 million barrels of gross oil equivalent.
If successful, it will deliver a short-cycle, high-return investment, leveraging existing Akpo facilities and potentially adding significant near-term production and reserves. Turning to the Preowei development.
Project optimization work continues with recent seismic data indicating an increase in recoverable resources and likely better connectivity in the reservoir that may lead to a reduction in the development well count. This optimization exercise is continuing and will conclude through 2026.
At Agbami, interpretation of recent 4D seismic is ongoing alongside rig and long lead item contracting in preparation for a 2027 infill drilling campaign. In addition to the infill drilling an appraisal well is planned on the Ikija discovery, which in a success case will be tied back to the Agbami FPSO.
Let's move to Slide 11 for an update on Namibia. Joint Venture continues to advance the Venus development, which remains on track for FID next year with first oil expected in 2030.
The environmental and social impact assessment is continuing to progress, which is a key step towards regulatory approvals. The plan outlined includes 40 subsea wells tied back to an FPSO with a peak capacity of 160,000 barrels of oil per day and once online, Venus could produce for more than 20 years, generating significant and sustained cash flow for Meren.
As we get closer to the final investment decision, there will be scope for us to report contingent resources and ultimately reserves as part of our annual Canadian NI 51-101 reporting process. On the exploration side, work continues to plan for drilling on several remaining prospects with Olympe remaining the key target and testing a different geological concept from Marula and with a significant potential resource base.
And importantly, we retained full exposure to these high-impact opportunities with no upfront cost as all exploration and development spending is carried through to first commercial production. Moving to Slide 12 and staying in the Orange Basin.
Let's turn to South Africa and Block 3B/4B. In September last year, we received an environmental authorization to drill up to 5 exploration wells.
And whilst progress is being made to move through the legislative appeals process, this has now been temporarily suspended pending a Supreme Court judgment in relation to Block 5, 6 and 7. Despite this pause, the operator continues to prepare for drilling with the Nayla prospect remaining the likely first target and with sufficient potential in a success case to support stand-alone development.
To remind you and important to note, the transaction completed with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy last year will cover Meren's costs for 1 to 2 exploration wells, so there will be no demand on our capital as drilling commences. In summary, across the Orange Basin, we maintain a leading independent E&P position with exposure to multiple near-term development and exploration opportunities and all without any near-term capital requirements.
Now turning to Equatorial Guinea on Slide 13. Meren holds 2 licenses offering differing opportunities.
In board, Block EG-31 offers a compelling low-risk appraisal opportunity that could unlock a low CapEx, short-cycle brownfield LNG project with a cost of supply competitive with U.S. gas exports.
The block lives and shallow water, close to the existing onshore EG LNG facility and contains several further gas prone prospects in areas where historic wells have proven the presence of gas. The second position, Block EG-18 is a deepwater exploration opportunity with billion barrel scale oil potential.
Recent seismic reprocessing and technical evaluation has unlocked a large Cretaceous age basin floor fan system with several stacked prospects identified within the same play that has been actively pursued by several majors across the border in São Tomé. A farm-down process for both positions has attracted strong interest, and we are actively engaged in discussions with potential partners for both blocks with the aim of reaching a conclusion on the farm-out process by the end of this year.
With the right partnerships in place, drilling activity could take place in late 2026 or 2027. I will now pass you back to Roger for his concluding comments.
Roger Tucker
Thank you, Oliver. It's been a solid quarter for the company.
We ended the period with a strong liquidity position and net debt to EBITDA of 0.4x and we have significantly reduced debt to optimize interest expenses, underscoring both the strength of our balance sheet and our disciplined approach to cash management. I'm pleased to have announced our fourth quarterly dividend, which will see the completion of our $100 million dividend plan, a clear reflection of our ongoing commitment to shareholders.
Looking ahead, we see meaningful value across our portfolio with excellent catalysts in the pipeline, each providing strong long-term growth potential. Thank you.
And with that, let's move to the Q&A.
Operator
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Jeff Robertson with Water Tower Research.
Jeffrey Robertson
However, can you give some insight into the production profile in 2026 in fields in Nigeria? And what you anticipate the lifting schedule might be for the first couple of quarters of the year?
Roger Tucker
Yes. Jeff, thanks for the question.
So as we go in to '26, we've got activity commencing again in the fields. We've got 3 wells, if you like, 3 infill well activities, Akpo and Egina.
Now we've got an Akpo Far East exploration well, which is important and likely in the Ikija well over on Agbami, which is appraisal. So I think the key thing is on those wells, they'll be back end of the year.
So we don't expect to see a meaningful production impact from them until early 2017. So they're important, but they're late in the year.
So where that takes is we'll see some natural decline through the year. And I think we're currently working through the final work program and budget with the operators in the next couple of weeks here, but we do anticipate kind of seeing decline into the kind of high 20s in terms of production at working interest level before, again, that picking up again as we come through the end of the year and into '27.
I think on the second part, the lifting schedule, I think we're anticipating around 10 cargoes it's a pretty evenly spaced throughout the year. I think you'll note this year, we've lifted all our cargoes for the calendar year as of November, so we don't have any in December.
And then I think our next cargo is coming in 2 cargoes, I think in Q1 next year.
Aldo Perracini
And just to remind everyone, we'll do our full year management guidance for 2026, early next year, potentially in sort of late January or February. So we'll have more detail on the outlook for the 2026 for our business.
Jeffrey Robertson
And is it correct to think that the Akpo Far East prospect is -- if that's a success that can be handled by the existing field infrastructure without any significant capital upgrades?
Roger Tucker
Yes, that's right. So it's kind of super interesting.
It's only just single-digit kilometers east of Akpo in the facility. It's a large kind of target that could, for a first phase, come on within 18 months, 2 years tied back to the Akpo facility.
So it's very reachable. The timing has really been around age and availability over Akpo.
That's now with Akpo's natural decline there's time and space, if you like, could come together. And so yes, that will be tied back very, very quickly.
Operator
Next question comes from David Round with Stifel.
David Round
A couple for me guys. The break from drilling in Q3, are you able to elaborate how that break has helped improve your thinking around future targets?
And then also just I guess, more generally, are you noticing any different approaches between the different operators you've got in Nigeria? And then the second one, separately, just on EG as a clarification.
Are you looking at farming down those blocks individually or together?
Aldo Perracini
Yes. David, thanks for the question.
So look, a good point, you take a step back on actually on Egina and Akpo, which is where the drilling break occurred this year. So again, we said this a lot, but kind of world-class fields kind of textbook petroleum engineering with 4D seismic over them.
So that allows us to shoot surveys at regular intervals, of course. And in those fields, in particular, we can see fluid movement, we can see oil, water, gas, and that allows us to kind of really hone in on the infill targets.
So specific to the question, we took a drilling break in Q3. We've had new 4D come in over the deals and the reason then to have that break and go back kind of Q3 next year drilling has been to allow that new data to be incorporated.
It looks very positive from us. So I think we'll see the 2 -- well, 2 targets on Egina, and one on Akpo, again, Q3, Q4 next year, and then we'd anticipate running into '27 that there'll be some more follow-on drilling on the back of that data.
So yes, it's been useful. I mean there is obviously a short-term impact at these middle-age fields from not drilling, but I think it allows us to come back with a more focused kind of target campaign.
Just to move to the EG question. So the simple answer is we see them as separate processes.
Now they have run kind of on a time line in very close parallel almost on top of each other. So look, there are parties that are interested in both.
There are parties that are interested in one or the other and again, we touched on it in the presentation, but they're very different in nature. So EG-31 is kind of gas brownfield LNG tie back through existing facilities, et cetera, 18 in the outboard multibillion barrel kind of oil target, so a kind of material kind of catalyst if that comes in.
So yes, very different opportunities, and therefore, we run a parallel but separate process, if you like.
David Round
Okay. Very clear.
Just in terms of the operator's approach in Nigeria, any differences there? Or are they kind of getting on with things in a similar kind of fashion?
Aldo Perracini
Yes. Look, good question.
I didn't mean to skip over it. Yes, I think they're both very active, which from an operator perspective is what you look for, right?
I mean the fields, as we know, they're heading to midlife, they're in that kind of natural decline. What they need is a bit of care and activity.
And I think on both -- from both operators, that's what we're seeing. So we didn't talk about Agbami so much, but the plan is to come back.
Chevron will drill kind of 6 infill production injector wells in 2027. So it's a pretty big campaign given the age of the field and kind of speaks to, a, their activity as an operator, which is very positive; and b, the nature of the resource base.
I think Egina and Akpo, again, slightly different. We're seeing the same infield activity focus from TotalEnergies.
There's lots of opportunities there to mature, but there's a wider set of tieback and kind of organic growth opportunities around those FPSOs as well. So we're seeing, obviously, the Preowei which is ongoing.
But there are several other discovered resources within the license that we see TotalEnergies is taking quite an active view on at the moment. So yes, look, I think we're comfortable that they're both engaged and active, which again is a nonoperator, really important to see that.
Operator
There are no further questions at this -- there are no further questions at this time. I will now hand back over to Shahin Amini to read through your written questions.
Shahin Amini
Thank you very much, operator. We've got a number of questions submitted over the Q&A facility and a couple of questions who were e-mailed to us earlier today.
So I'm actually going to start with an e-mail question from one of our long-standing shareholders in Sweden. And I'm going to put to Aldo, what are your expectations in the common quarters for further reductions in net debt?
Aldo Perracini
Okay. Thank you, Shahin.
In relation to debt reduction and the leverage in the balance sheet, I think we have done focus -- we focus a lot throughout 2025. You have seen the amount of reduction we did with the existing RBL as is natural in this kind of instruments, as we progress towards the maturity of the facility we get compressed by the loan life cover ratio, and therefore, we have to continue to make payments or we continue to have a reduction in our borrowing base, and that will continue to happen throughout 2026.
So in terms of what we plan for the next year compared to 2025, I think the main difference is that we have already started the process to refinance our existing facility. And so far, we have been getting strong indications from the banking syndicate.
And if we're able to achieve that target, which we expect for the beginning of 2026. We then should be in a position to keep our borrowing base higher for a longer period of time, which will give us additional liquidity for whatever reason.
So organic growth, inorganic growth and et cetera. So that's the plan in relation to that as we get into 2026.
Shahin Amini
Thank you, Aldo, and the same investor, a couple of follow-on questions. I'm actually going to address this myself because these questions are kind of detailed about our 2026 estimates and outlook.
As I mentioned earlier, we will give a more detail -- well, we will give a detailed management guidance next year. And Oliver, I think it's fair to say that right now, the team are very busy with the JV partners in sort of setting the Board program on budgets for next year, correct?
So there's still some what we need to get through before we ready to give the share management guidance.
Oliver Quinn
That's right. We'll play that out through the end of the year.
And as you said early next year, there will be a clear forward plan on production forward vision on that production.
Shahin Amini
Okay. Very good.
And going back to Aldo. This is a long-standing point of debate base.
And that's -- the question is that as you're lowering net debt in 2026, what is your expectations or what is your outlook for one in terms of capital allocation and shareholder returns? Can you sustain the dividend?
Aldo Perracini
Okay. Good question, and we get that question a lot.
I think the sense in terms of capital allocation, again, the focus in 2025 was to reduce the RBL as we were not utilizing the whole liquidity we have available under that facility. And then we achieved significant interest expense reduction throughout the year, which I think it's an important way to generate equity value for our shareholders.
Now when we look forward, I think we all -- the way we look through capital allocation and distributions, we look at mainly 4 things. First, we look at the short term or the cash generation coming from the Nigerian agent assets and then how short-term production behaves, that's the first bit.
The second bit would be in relation to organic growth through the existing portfolio. As you know, in Nigeria, we fund organic growth with existing cash flow from operations.
And outside of Nigeria, we fund organic growth through the carry arrangements which we have put in place with partners, for example, in Namibia with TotalEnergies' true impact. The third part that we look, we then look at the debt obligations.
Again, as I mentioned, we would continue to have a reduction in the borrowing base through 2026. So to address that, we have restarted the refinancing exercise, which will give us additional liquidity to go through that.
And then the fourth part, which is a little bit of our control or a lot of our control is the oil price movements, right? I think we are looking at oil price forecast for 2026, which are very -- and most of them on the bearish side, which we see also reflected on the forward curve.
So we're going to take -- we're going to be very, very careful when we look at additional distributions in 2026 or elsewhere as we prepare for a year where we expect to have a lot of cash flow volatility given the oil price. So that's the mechanism.
Those are the -- that's the process that we go through when evaluating dividend distribution. So when we go through all of that, as of this moment, we don't foresee any surprises into 2026.
But again, keeping an eye on oil price, which should be the major variance.
Shahin Amini
Thank you, Aldo. And there's a couple of questions on M&A.
As always, we can't go into detail. So -- but perhaps from a more philosophical and high-level point of view, Roger, perhaps you want to -- first, how does Meren see M&A opportunities in the market and 2 specific jurisdictions have been mentioned, but 1 continent, South America and Nigeria in 2 different questions.
How do we view opportunities?
Roger Tucker
Thanks, Shahin. So we are looking at a whole series of opportunities.
But as I've said before and as Oliver has said, we're in no rush. We have a balance sheet, which allows us the opportunity to wait and find the right opportunity.
I think in the short term, it is likely if we do anything, it is likely to be within West Africa and we are reviewing a series of opportunities there. But all I can say at the moment is that we are in -- have the luxurious position of being able to wait until we find the exact right opportunity.
So no rush. We are reviewing very, very carefully, and it will -- whatever we do will fit with our investment criteria.
Shahin Amini
Thank you. That's really -- I don't have any other questions that we haven't already answered from the webcast.
So I'm going to hand back to the operator to bring this presentation to a conclusion.
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for joining.
You may now disconnect.