Metals Acquisition Corp

Metals Acquisition Corp

MTAL-WT
Metals Acquisition CorpUS flagNew York Stock Exchange
4.33
USD
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997.52MMarket Cap

Q1 2024 · Earnings Call Transcript

Aug 29, 2024

APIChat

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator.

Welcome to the Metals Acquisitions Limited Half Year Accounts Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded.

[Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Mick McMullen, CEO of Metals Acquisitions Limited. Please go ahead.

Mick McMullen

Thank you very much, and thank you, everyone, for joining us, in particular, in Australia on a very busy results day. We'll try not to keep everyone for too long.

So myself and Morné, our CFO, will be doing the talking on this conference call. So Morné, if you can go forward to the slide if everyone can read the disclaimer at your leisure.

So look, everyone knows, we've got an asset in western New South Wales, super high grade. EV is about US$1.1 billion today based on where the share price sits.

And it's a very well-established mine. We don't really need to sort of go through the detail of the operations too much today.

But we think we've got one of the better copper assets around as you'll see from the financial results, I think they speak for themselves. So we can go to the next slide, Morné.

Again, from a year ago, what did we say we do versus what have we done? We've sort of ticked all the boxes.

I just checked our shares from a year ago were up precisely 0.09%. So not so sure that actually checking the boxes is done matches, but we have delivered on everything we said we would do in the last year in a bit.

Next slide, thanks. We've put out our formal guidance into the marketplace.

Now I would say to people that guidance is based on the information we had at hand actually from a year ago, the end of August last year. And as you will see from our production results and some of the things we're doing, we're getting increasingly more confident in our ability to meet and potentially go a little bit beyond that.

So you can see there over the next couple of years, we sort of end up above the 50,000 tonnes of copper mark. Again, we have only been able to base that on reserves.

We have no inferred material in there. We have QTS South [ph] Upper which is predominantly inferred.

We are drilling that out right now. We do see that as having very good potential to add a little bit more.

And I think some of the productivity improvements and mine design changes that we've been doing with some of these double lift stopes that have allowed the site to pull a bit more high-grade copper forward. We are feeling increasingly more confident that we may be able to potentially do a little bit better than that over that medium term.

So next slide there, please, Morné. Again, from the highlights, Morné will go through all these in great detail, but a strong quarter for Q2.

So again, we're sitting around about midpoint of guidance after the half. Obviously, Q2 was stronger than Q1.

So sequentially, we're building through the year. Strong cash balance, we've increased the mine life.

So a very long mine life now, which I guess was one of the things that we said we'd do at the start of this exercise. And as I said, guidance is gradually ticking up over the years as we sort of catch up on some of the backlog of development that we inherited, as the drilling is showing towards, we'll see at the back end of this deck.

We are seeing significantly more copper units as the mine goes deeper. So we're expanding the ore body.

So that's all looking pretty good for our future production. So next slide, please.

Safety, look, this is a work in progress. We have seen the TRIFR roll down a bit since the June quarter.

And we're a very big part of the community we operate in. We are the largest employer.

We're about 80% residential now. We provide a lot of funding into the town, both through donations, but also just our economic activity there.

And I think that's a key thing for us out in Cobar where our main approval authority is the Cobar Shire Council that the people in charge of approving projects for us are the communities that we interact with and impact with. So we think that's a great relationship, and it does make CSA a little bit unique in, well, much of Australia actually.

So if we can keep going to the next slide there, Morné. I'm going to hand over to Morné for all the financial numbers now.

There's a lot of numbers here, but I think the underlying story is very strong as you will hopefully pick up as we go through this. Over to you, Morné.

Morné Engelbrecht

Great. Thanks, Mick.

Good evening. Morning, everyone.

I will take you through the next couple of slides. Slide 5 to 15, which covers the elements of the half year financial results for 2024.

And just specifically taking note that the presentation should be read in conjunction with the appendix 4D and the auditor reviewed first half financial statements, which were released in various markets. Starting on Slide 9, we have obviously, the financial results over there.

Also, a quick note that we've report in U.S. dollars, so all amounts are in U.S.

dollars unless otherwise shown. And all the great work that Mick has spoken about in terms of the operational side for the half and meeting our goals are reflected in the half year results, which resulted in some record earnings for the mine under the MAC ownership.

We are comparing the first half of '24 to the preceding half of '23. And you will note all line items are considerably better in comparison, including the net revenue of US$182 million or A$272 million for the 6 months.

This is up some 29% compared to the preceding half of the back of, obviously, slightly increasing copper prices and sales volumes for the half. I should note here that we did recognize the revenue and associated cost of sales for the concentrate presales at Glencore as reported at the quarterly, and as we did meet the requirements on the IFRS 15 revenue standard.

So this has resulted in sales volumes increasing by about 5,000 tonnes and an additional revenue of $41 million for the half. The increased revenue together with the reduced cost of sales and admin and selling expenses contributed to our very healthy underlying EBITDA of US$91 million or A$136 million for the half.

More importantly, our underlying EBITDA margin increased significantly to 50% for the half, mainly driven by a 22% increase in sales volumes, which absorbed more of our overall operating fixed cost and lower cost of sales as well. And as I mentioned, there was a 3% increase in the average realized copper price for the 6 months compared to the preceding 6 months.

Our statutory net loss of $95 million for the half was heavily impacted by noncash change in fair value of financial instruments of $109 million, which was mainly driven by the increase in the corporate price compared to the preceding - preceding half. It should be noted that the volatility around the fair value adjustments will be somewhat reduced going forward with the redemption of the private and public warrants which accounted for about 36% of that $109 million fair value adjustment, which was revalued just before the redemption of those warrants.

So overall, record revenue, underlying EBITDA for the asset on the Mac ownership with a very healthy underlying EBITDA margin of 50%. Moving on to Slide 10.

We provide a breakdown then of the statutory net loss for the period on the [ph] impact of the noncash elements on the earnings with statutory net income from operations of $46 million shown there. The statuary earnings were also impacted by net financing cost of $32 million, with interest expense of $21 million and a realized hedge loss of $5 million for the half, with the remainder made up of non recurring interest cost on the Glencore deferred settlement payments and working capital facility.

And I should also point out that despite of the cost of sales number, we reported an underlying corporate cost of about $10 million for the half. And Slide 11.

And here, we show the reconciliation from the net statutory earnings to the record underlying EBITDA of US$90 million or US$136 million, as I said before. If we move from left to right on the graph, we start with the statutory net loss and then adjust for tax, net finance expenses, net change in fair value in financial instruments, depreciation, amortization and then underlying adjustments relating to one-off items relating to the ASX IPO completed early in the year.

In relation to the noncash fair value adjustments of $109 million, the main underlying driver there, as I said, is the fair value change in the -- driven by the copper price, but also the increase in the reserves and therefore, the increase in life of mine as well, which impacted that. And then the impacts of their value adjustments on the hedges that remain outstanding included there.

As I noted earlier, the big value of fair value volatility has now been removed with the redemption of the private and public warrants as well. On Slide 12, our cash and cash equivalents have materially increased by 174% from $32 million at the previous [indiscernible] date of 31 December to more than $88 million as at 30 June '24.

From the significant cash generation by operations, we ended up with some $70 million of free cash flow from operations for the half. We received a much near boost through the ASX IPO subsequent to 2023 year-end, which raised AU$325 million or the equivalent out of US$192 million after cost.

The raising of the equity provided us with some greater flexibility and a stronger balance sheet. And as stated in previous call, we are focused on the simplification of the balance sheet and utilizing the great cash flow generation from the operation not only to grow our production materially, but reduce our interest-bearing liabilities at the same time.

So since the beginning of the year, you can see there on the graph that we have certainly done just that in terms of we've repaid the deferred consideration to Glencore, which is some $83 million, including the working capital facility of 15. We also have paid the revolving facility of $25 million and then some principal repayments there on the senior debt of $16 million for the half.

We also paid significant one-off liabilities in terms - in the form of stamp duty, which amounted to $23 million for the half as well. And then from a growth agenda perspective, we have commenced the exploration program.

So we showed the $3 million spent on exploration. And I also commenced development of the Vent project, which will further support the expansion of the CSA copper mine and drive that 25% uplift in production to 2026 based on the midpoint of guidance.

We ended the quarter with more than $88 million of cash and further liquidity of around $46 million, which includes the undrawn $25 million of revolving facility, and we also had some $21 million of unsold concentrate ready for shipment at 30 June 2024. So overall, we are in a very healthy cash flow position and continue to build on our strong balance sheet.

Moving on to Slide 13. So here, we show the interest-bearing debt waterfall, so demonstrating the significant deleveraging that we have undertaken since June last year.

And as you can see, we repaid some US$160 million in interest-bearing liabilities after starting out with around $430 million of interest-bearing debt with the acquisition increasing to 31 December and then a significant reduction of 29% to be at around $320 million at 30 June 2024. Importantly, with the significant cash generation for the half, we have reduced our net debt position to US$232 million.

We are looking for further - we are looking further into obviously, simplification and strengthening our balance sheet with our strong free cash flow and increasing production. Slide 14.

As a result of our drive to reduce interest-bearing liabilities, you will note on the slide there that we produced our net gearing ratio over the last 6 months by some 25% from 41% to 31% as at 30 June '24. Furthermore, we provide an update on our debt profile there at the bottom of the slide there, and you will note that more than 80% of the scheduled repayments of the outsetting debt is to be made in '26 and '28, respectively.

As announced on Slide 15. In June, we completed a redemption of some 15 million private and public warrants with almost 100% redeemed through the cashless redemption mechanism available to the company.

And we issued about 4.7 million shares to redeem some 15 million warrants. Overall, this means that we have 74 million ordinary shares on issue with still some financing warrants outstanding and our fully diluted securities now around that 78 million shares.

And also noted, just confirming the net debt position there of $231 million, taking into account that strong build - strong cash build, and repayment of debt over the half. And with that, Mick, I hand it back to you.

Mick McMullen

Yes. Thanks, Morné.

And look, just a couple of points, I'll also touch on there. So if we look at the company from when we closed on buying the mine 14 months ago, we had about nearly US$450 million of interest-bearing liabilities or net debt actually.

We've sort of halved that in that 14 months period. So gearing, not just in the half, but if we look at since we bought this mine, gearing has materially reduced in this business.

We have a 50% EBITDA margin. I haven't searched through all of our peers, but I think we're probably at the front of the pack there in terms of EBITDA margin from our operation.

And look, I think the other point that's on one of those slides there is that, it's all well and good having on EBITDA. But if you spend it all in CapEx, it's not much good to shareholders.

We convert about 75% of our EBITDA to free cash flow of the ops. Again, I haven't looked at all of our peers, but I'm pretty sure that's one of the better in the class.

So I'm a little bit perplexed with where our share price sits today. As I said, I'm 0.09% up in the last 12 months when we've actually completely not fully delevered, but materially delevered the business.

Our ops are going very well, 50% EBITDA margin. I'm sure a few of you have got you calculated that already and working out what our trailing EBITDA margin is, and I'm pretty sure you'll find that, again, it's pretty low for the peer group.

This is a quality, long life, super high-grade, high-margin asset that's in a fantastic jurisdiction for permitting and operating. And we're getting a little bit frustrated with where the share price sits.

And so from a strategy point of view, I think clearly, our number one goal is deleveraging and investing in the mine to -- if we can invest in the mine and grow value for shareholders by doing that, there's a very strong internal bid for capital right now. So I think the team at site would say compared to sort of previous times, we are investing in that mine with a view to getting a return out of a strong return.

What do we do? We pay down the debt, I think.

We continue to make the business as strong as we possibly can, build as much cash in the business as we can and look at some point, well, I went into the market and bought A$3 or A$400,000 worth of stock a few weeks ago. But at some point, if the -- we view the business as being a really strong business that is undervalued, well, I guess at some point, one of the things we're buying is our own stock back.

So I think we've done -- the team has done a great job getting this business ordered in the time frame. We just aren't being recognized in the marketplace for that right now.

It does look like we're likely to get into the ASX 300 here in a few weeks' time. So we think that might be a good catalyst for the stock.

The other thing in that period, in that 12, 14 months is copper price has gone up $0.40 a pound. So we're a little bit perplexed with where we're trading.

But I guess all I can do right now is just run the business as best as we can and sort that balance sheet out as much as we can and just make the story as simple as possible for people. So following my view on life on that, we might just roll on.

So again, we put 3-year guidance and, as I said earlier, this is really based on information from literally a year ago. I do think we're feeling increasingly comfortable and confident, I suppose, is the best way I could put it.

We have been asked, given the performance the last quarter and sort of where we're tracking now, whether we'll change guidance for this year. I think we'll stick with where we are.

These new double lift stopes, we're on the second one, seems to be working. But that's really probably a story for when we review our guidance for next year as to what we do with that.

I would say, May and June really shows what this mine can do. We did 4,000 tonnes of copper in May.

We did 5,400-odd tonnes of copper in June. When this mine is well run and things all come together, that's the sort of thing this mine can do.

So clearly, June was an exceptional month. But I think repeatable at times, clearly well above the run rate of what we're selling people for guidance for this year, right.

So we had C1 costs of around about 160, 150, 160 for those 2 months. So again, high fixed cost operation if we get the production out, that's what you're going to get.

Again, we announced some drill results after the quarterly calls. I'll talk roughly what does that all mean on this slide.

This ore body has been going well, really for 150 years, but in modern format since 1967, we've sort of doubled the reserve life since we've had it again on data from a year ago. The drilling that we're doing now in sort of QTS North around where we're mining has extended the strike length of the ore body, 20%, 25%.

What does that mean? That means we're getting more tonnes per vertical meter.

That means we need to do less development to get our copper tonnes out or conversely, once we have this ventilation in place, we have a lot more tonnes available and we have the vendor available to be able to actually produce more. So we're very excited about what this ore body throws up.

We continue to announce drill results at 20 meters at 10% plus or 15 - 20 meters at 15%. The market seems to yawn [ph] because it's sort of become, well, that's just a standard CSA drill result.

I would suggest if we are a stand-alone exploration company announcing those things with zero infrastructure, the stock would probably double on the back of that right. Again, pretty frustrating that people sort of yawn when we put those kind of drill results out when it truly is an amazing mine and those kinds of results underpin our increasing confidence about being able to produce more out of this business than what perhaps we thought we could a year ago.

So with that, we'd like to go to the closing slide. Again, very strong 50% EBITDA margin, 70% of that is converted to cash flow, material deleveraging of the business over the last half and 12 months as well.

So operationally, we think things are going fantastically, always more to do. But yes, I think it's a great asset.

And I think compared to our peer group, I think we have many attributes that are towards the top end of the peer group or by our share costs. So with that, I'm going to hand over to shareholders, I'm happy to take questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Daniel Morgan

Hi, Mick and team. So my question just relates to, can you give us a little bit of a sense of how the operations have performed post the end of the quarter, please?

Mick McMullen

Yeah. Look, again, we've sort of left our guidance where it is.

So midpoint of the guidance is about 40 and half thousand tonnes. We feel comfortable with that.

I did say on the quarterly call that just from the scheduling of the sort of high-grade stopes, Q3 will be slightly weaker than Q2, like a few hundred tonnes of copper. And quite frankly, that's as accurate as we can be.

And Q4 looks like fairly strong. So -- but overall, no real surprises, I think, is the short answer.

We will -- so the one thing that we will see a bit more of now is we've done the geotech [ph] drilling out for that Vent project, and so development has commenced out there. So we will start seeing development meters pick up as we get into that project, and we are moving ahead with that pretty quickly.

That's probably the only sort of real change, I think you'll see. No other surprises, I think otherwise.

Daniel Morgan

And latest plans to potentially exploit QTS South Upper when might we hear more on that potential project?

Mick McMullen

Quite soon, I think. We sort of have got the final things in from contractors.

Look, I - we'll make a decision in the next, I don't know, a week or so, but I suspect that there's a better than even chance that perhaps we -- we certainly have the people and the equipment to do it ourselves. And I think the team at site are getting increasingly more confident as they saw at the bottom of the mine out in their ability to execute that.

But fairly soon, we are doing a drill program to upgrade that to measured and indicated. There's 25 holes going into that would be, I don't know, half, two thirds of the way through that.

That will allow me to call it a reserve, which will allow me to then add it to guidance, right? It's not in our guidance right now, outlook [ph]

Daniel Morgan

Okay. Thank you for your perspectives, Mick.

Operator

The next question comes from Eric Linnell with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Eric Linnell

Great. Thanks a lot Nick and team, appreciating my question.

A couple of quick financial questions. But maybe just on the Vent raise, can you remind us what the spend is there and kind of what the major deliverables we should expect, I guess, throughout the end of the year?

Or I should say ventilation, sorry, not ventras [ph]

Mick McMullen

Yes. So there's a slide in the quarterly deck that we put out that's got the detail on it, but it's around about A$42 million, so not U.S., it's Aussie dollars.

And that will be - sort of we started that drilling really about 6 months ago or 5 months ago. And that will go through to about mid-2026.

And Morné I don't know how much we've spent on it. That'd be A$2 million to A$3 million maybe U.S.

that we've spent on it so far and do you have the number off hand there? but it's in that order, I think.

Morné Engelbrecht

Yes, it's about US$3 million.

Mick McMullen

Great. So the deliverables are the sort of components of that project are the geotech drilling to make sure the ground is good out there, which is sort of done.

Then there's the development measures to get out there, which would be, I don't know, halfway on the first drive out there. We've got to do it across 3 or 4 levels.

So -- and then raise boring. We've just actually just closed the tender for the raise [ph] boring last Friday.

Off the top of my head, I would think we'll be out there raised boring early next year maybe somewhere in that order.

Eric Linnell

Okay. Great.

Thank you. Appreciate that.

And just on the concentrate sales. So obviously, there was a big delay because of the rail issues.

I assume that's all been sorted out now. And any views on Q3 in terms of timing of shipments or what we can expect there?

Morné Engelbrecht

Yeah. Look, I think - well, Mick...

Mick McMullen

Well, obviously Morné can talk about the timing of shipments, but we still do have a fair bit of concentrate around. We produced a lot of concentrate.

So it's a good problem to have, I guess. But Morné, I might let you talk about it.

Morné Engelbrecht

Yes. Look, I think in terms of the timing of the shipments, we spoke about at the quarterly call, that has started to be sorted out, I think in the call I bit indicated and that will take some time to clear.

But we're confident by the end of September, we'll have most of that sort of back in time in terms of the sequence with the trains, the shipping and obviously, production as well, maybe a little bit into October still in terms of clearing that sort of backlog. But like Mick said, we've got a lot of constraint on site, which is a good problem to have at the moment.

And as we indicated, we're able to recognize that revenue in any event from those presales. So overall, we're still getting the cash in the door from that perspective.

Eric Linnell

Okay. Appreciate that.

Thank you.4 And just a quick one on taxes. Any view on what we should model or think about taxes versus this year?

Mick McMullen

Look, we've recognized an expense there of about $7 million for the half. So I think for the rest of the half, we do have a tax shield with the acquisition of the mine.

And that tax shield obviously shields you from some of the -- from the tax liability on a yearly basis, not really in terms of the quantum of that and how far that will extend. I mean off step will depend on the copper price as well.

But we might tip into a slight tax payment by the end of this year. But again, -- that's if you roll forward sort of the last quarter going forward.

So on balance in terms of where the copper price is now, I wouldn't expect this to be in the tax paying position at the end of this year.

Eric Linnell

Okay. Fantastic.

Appreciate that. I'll hop back in the queue.

Thanks.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Paul Hissey with Moelis. Please go ahead.

Paul Hissey

Thanks. Yeah, I just wanted to expand a little bit on the forward sales.

I'm just trying to understand, I guess, the working capital moves and whether -- I mean clearly, that the sales number in your quarterly is not the sales number that's been reflected in the P&L. So how much of that stockpile has been pulled forward and how much of that is kind of a onetime deal?

I'm just trying to understand, I guess, on a go-forward basis, the relationship between the sales you reported to quarterly versus the sales that will manifest in the revenue line of your financials?

Morné Engelbrecht

Yes. I think obviously, with the anomaly at year-end that sort of had a material difference between production and sales to start with -- we recognized as additional sales, so that sort of brought it back in line with production matching up with the sales volume there.

Going forward, as I just said, by end of September, probably middle of October, we'll probably work back through that backlog in terms of the concentrate and be on even keel in terms of having a healthy inventory of concentrate on-site in the warehouse versus port versus what we're shipping out. So I think by sort of end of September, beginning of October, we'll be in the even keel in terms of having a normal runoff inventory in terms of the concentrate rolling through in terms of having that balance right.

So I think come December, you'll -- we'll be in full swing, I suppose, in terms of that sort of working capital movement. So I suspect a little bit more to go in terms of end of September, September.

But then by December, you won't notice that from that perspective, any issue with trains and shipping [ph] and stuff.

Paul Hissey

Yes. So will we see higher sales because I mean, really, there's sales and then there's sales, right?

There's the regular sales and then there's the forward sales. So will we see forward sales as well at the end of September?

Morné Engelbrecht

Look, we might do. I mean, as you can appreciate, as Mick outlined, I mean, currently, we've got over 20,000 tonnes of concentrate still import in the warehouse.

We've obviously spent the cash to actually mine and process the ore to generate the concentrate. So if there's still that sort of amount or close to that amount at the end of September, we would want to obviously get the cash in the door and obviously pay for that -- the cost to get that cost rate to that point in time.

So I think there might still be at the end of September, that sort of imbalance that we need to check in terms of the working capital and making sure we've got the cash balance right as well. But then going forward by any issues on shipping or trains, that should even out and we shouldn't be doing any presales from that perspective going forward.

Paul Hissey

Okay.

Mick McMullen

To clarify a little bit. We obviously can't presell stuff that we haven't made.

So all we're trying to do is get revenue in the door from stuff that we've made and pay the cost of making, right? So my gut feel is we'll still have a bit of that stuff sitting in inventory at the end of September, just given what the month of September looks like.

So yes, I'm pretty sure there will be that. I guess, in an ideal world, we'd like to end up with - at the end of every quarter, carrying about US$10 million of inventory at most.

Paul Hissey

Sure.

Mick McMullen

So fortuitous, if we can get it below that, like, I think that's sort of about what you need to have sitting in the business. But clearly, at the end of June, we had $58 million worth.

Now that's a bit much. So we presold $37 million of it, which is recognized in the EBITDA line here.

We still had 21, which is still too much. And right now, yes, we'd have a fair bit.

I think there's a boat this week and another one in a couple of weeks. But yes, what we're trying to do is align production.

Like you obviously can't sell stuff, you haven't produced unless you're a magician. So all we're trying to do is catch up that lag of all this stuff, all this value we've got sitting around, we want it to be dollars.

Paul Hissey

Sure. No, no.

No, I completely understand that. I just -- it's just the reconciliation between the copper sold number you quote in the quarterly versus the, I guess, the amount of tonnes you need to have sold to reach the revenue number when you come to the financials, right?

So I mean, I'll be frank, I missed the discrepancy, right. So my financials don't look anything like your real financials because I had you selling 16, not 21 tonnes of copper, right?

So just trying to understand I guess the accordion effect in your inventory there and whether or not we're creating a hole in the future. But clearly, you had a big buffer to begin with that you're trying to work your way through.

But I must admit, I didn't appropriately factor in those additional forward sales on top of your, I guess, conventional sales for one of the better words.

Mick McMullen

Yes. But again, for the half, we've produced, I don't know where it was 9.5,000 [ph] tonnes just under 20%.

If I'm just a simple bush mask guy. I look at it on the basis, well, how much did we produce, assume we sold it all, how much money did we make on that.

Then there's a working capital line that goes below that, but that's how I look at the business, right? If we -- if you assume that we sell whatever we produce, then there'll be some sort of working capital adjustments somewhere in the, that will work its way through the system as Morné said, I think we were very back ended in the half, if you want to think about it that way.

We produced a lot of the metal. I've got us there's a slide there somewhere, but we produced whatever it would be, not quite half to 40%, 45% of the total metal in the last 2 months of the half, right?

Paul Hissey

Sure.

Mick McMullen

You end up with all stuff that you then can't get on a train and get on a boat by the cut off date, so hence why we've done the pre sale. And there's - Morné talked about that.

Between publishing the quarterly and the half, there's been a lot of work go on. In terms of revenue recognition and meeting, does it meet the standard for revenue recognition?

And the answer is yes. So, in an ideal world, you know, we'd sell every ton that we make and it'd be on a boat by the end of the quarter and that's that.

It's a bit lumpy. Right.

So we're going to adjustment here and there.

Paul Hissey

Yeah. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from David Radcliff with Global Mining Research. Please go ahead.

The next question comes from David Radcliff with Global Mining Research. Please go ahead.

David Radcliff

Hi. Sorry, Mick and Morné.

So my first question is just on -- if you come back to one of the thesis for the transaction was obviously the big opportunity for cost out. Costs have been sort of moving the right way.

But I thought it may be good to get a bit of an update on what costs you think still could come out of the business? And if there are -- or you largely sort of gone through what you saw as the key opportunities?

Mick McMullen

I'd say headcount wise, we're there or thereabouts where we need to be. Again, Q1, we probably undershot on headcount a little bit.

So we -- Q2, we've added, I don't know, 20-odd peoples back into the operation to make sure that we've always got operators. I think that component's done, I think, commercial contracts were part the way through.

There's still a bit of work to be done there. And Morné and the team are sort of going through that.

Some contracts we can renegotiate at short notice, others you're sort of waiting for the contract around its course. And I've done a fair few of these turnarounds you sort of get to a point where you can't really cut away the future further profitability, right?

So then you got to grow production. And I would say that's the inflection point where we're at.

And we clearly saw that in May and June, right? We look at the cash flow or EBITDA or whatever metric you want to look at.

When we get that mine running at those levels, then that's really your cost outright as you'll see one really drops. That's where we are, right?

We need to get more production out of this thing, both from what we're doing in the rest of the mine, plus some incremental stuff like QTS South Upper. That's the key, right?

And I know you're not a big fan of EBITDA, and I may have actually stuck that metric in there of our EBITDA to cash conversion for you. I think that's the other key thing news.

We're not having to spend every dollar we make on CapEx.

David Radcliff

Okay. Thank you.

And then look, I think a number of us are trying to get the, reconcile the revenue, so it's very helpful to get the sales number of copper tons sold, because that sort of helps us square that away. But look, in terms of how should we be thinking about this, what a normal inventory level should kind of be?

I mean, you produce 100,000, roughly 150,000 tonnes a corn [ph] a year and that sort of spread between I guess the mine and the port or on the way. But what is sort of a normal kind of level that we should be thinking of?

Is it sort of a month's worth of corn or such like? Because I guess we don't get the granularity on where it sits, and that's causing a lot of us to, I guess, not be able to estimate exactly where inventories currently are.

Mick McMullen

I'd like it to be zero. But like I said, I think US$10 million worth of inventory, probably, Morné I don't know, do you think we can do better than that.

I'm not sure we can.

Morné Engelbrecht

Yes. Look, I think there's -- it's -- we do about two trains a week at full tilt.

So I think if you were around that sort of ship load at any one point in the system or a little bit more, I think that's probably what you're going to get to one. So that's about, I don't know, 11,000 tonnes.

So that's about, its about 2.5,000 [ph] tonnes of copper. So it's that sort of number, I would think.

So maybe a little bit more than $10 million, Mick, but it's probably not going to be much more than that, but that's sort of the you can get away lot less than that because you need 11,000 tonnes sitting at port ready for the next ship, right? So this can be there or thereabouts.

David Radcliff

All right. Brilliant.

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Mick McMullen

I'm giving you a stretched target, Morné. Yes.

I think the short answer is, unless it just happened to strike that you load a vote on the very last day of the reporting period. I don't think it's ever going to be zero is the short answer.

There's always going to be some -- there's always going to be some working capital flowing around in the business.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mick McMullen for any closing remarks.

Please go ahead.

Mick McMullen

Well, look, thanks, everyone. I know it's a very busy reporting day here.

So if anybody has got any questions, we're happy to take them off-line as well. But again, I think the ops are doing very strongly, and we still see a bit of room for improvement here going forward.

Clearly, if we can get production up, you can see the impact on C1 EBITDA, free cash flow and everything. So that's really the key for us where we are now.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines.

Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.+