Rheinmetall AG

Rheinmetall AG

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Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 6, 2025

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen welcome to the Q3 2025 Report Conference Call. I'm Moritz, the Chorus Call operator.

[Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall. Please go ahead.

Armin Papperger

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us for the Q3 results call today. With me on the call is our CFO, Klaus Neumann.

Klaus will walk you through the financials. Before we start, please be reminded of our legal disclaimer on Page 2.

Now let's move on to Page #3. On Page #3, you see that on the sales side, and I focus very strong on the defense side, we have a growth rate of 17% on the defense up to EUR 2.3 billion.

The total sales is EUR 2.78 billion. The operating results on the defense side is EUR 361 million, a plus of 7% and it's EUR 360 million in total of plus 19%.

Operating margin is on the defense side, 15.7% and it's lower on the total sales on operating margin is 12.9%. The people still want to come to Rheinmetall.

So we had more than 200,000 applications. Operational free cash flow is going down on the defense side, minus EUR 286 million, total minus EUR 168 million.

And CapEx is growing because of all the new factories that we built up at the moment to 8.9%. And Rheinmetall nomination and the issue that we have a minus of 36% is, as you know, the election period that we had in Germany, so that we had delayed order intakes.

And -- but that's very normal because the government was not able to give these order intakes to us. But Rheinmetall backlog is -- we're still very healthy.

with EUR 63.8 billion, that's nearly EUR 64 billion. We have a plus of 23%.

Let's have a look to Slide #4. And here, we have shown some innovations.

We presented the innovations on the DSEI in London. And we have shown with together with Lockheed Martin, the JAGM tank counter on a new Fuchs mobile, but it can be implemented also on other vehicles.

Then we have a growing family of our Skyrangers, the Mission Master, which is Skyranger CXT2. And the next-generation ship protection with the MASS Nova 2, there are a lot of more innovations that we have shown on the DSEI.

It's a small overview about that, what we did in London. On the right side, you see the Telford gun shop groundbreaking ceremony, and we will invest in total about EUR 100 million, and we will create 100 highly skilled jobs, and it's important for us to produce the caliber range of 120 to 155 on the large caliber side, but we are also able to produce medium caliber.

The need for that guns over the next years is huge, and we create up a capacity of more than 150 large caliber guns per year in United Kingdom. Let's have a look to Page #5.

And here, you can see that the parliament made good decisions. So at the end of the day, 2025, finally, we will have a budget of EUR 95 billion.

There is a growth rate of 23%. And in '26, the draft, and we expect nearly EUR 120 billion, where EUR 83 billion is coming out of Einzelplan 14, EPL 14, then the special fund and the Ukraine relief fund.

So the decision on the budget in '26 budget has to be passed in November so that we are able to plan really fix then for the next years. Let's have a look to Slide #6.

On Slide #6, you see 2 new activities that we have inside the Rheinmetall Group. One activity is that we reached an agreement with Lürssen family and to take over the naval vessels from Lürssen.

So we had the signing. And we expect that the closing is latest end of January in 2026.

The potential sales that we see in 2030 is up to EUR 5 billion. Next year, the expectation is that we can grow up to around EUR 2.5 billion, but then double the sales.

And the order intake potential that we see over the next 5 years is between EUR 20 billion and EUR 30 billion because there are huge programs also from the German Navy, but also international navies. On the right side, you see our ICEYE cooperation.

We formed a 40-60 joint venture between ICEYE and Rheinmetall. So Rheinmetall has the majority.

And we signed it on the 23rd of September in '25. The first market is Germany, but we look for more markets.

And the immediate need we see is at the moment, 40 satellites. And Rheinmetall, the expectation on nomination is about EUR 2 billion.

And if everything is working well, we can have an order intake also this year of that EUR 2 billion. So the first big contract on satellites for Rheinmetall.

Now let's have a look to Page 7. And here, you see how Rheinmetall weapon and ammunition is creating this European ecosystem.

And the expansion of existing capacities in Spain, doubling or in some areas, tripling capacities in Spain, the same in South Africa and in Australia are in progress. In Germany, we started the trial production for the 155 projectiles.

And we are only also on a good way and the first stage is ready on the powder production in Bavaria. And we will double and in some areas, triple also the production in Bavaria on the powder side.

So we are on a very good way in that area. We had the groundbreaking in Lithuania for auxiliary ammunition.

And we signed an MOU also for propellant to create a center of competence of propellants in Lithuania signed also where the President of Lithuania was with us. A new ammunition plant in Latvia is signed.

Bulgaria, joint venture for powder and 155-millimeter is established. And in Romania, a joint venture for powder production is also established.

And on the Romanian side, we plan at the moment, and it can be also very fast in the first quarter next year, a package deal with the Romanian government, not only about ammunition, but also about tanks and other equipment for the Romanian Army. Now let's have a look to Page #8.

Here, you see what happens now with the Power Systems. The process of selling our automotive business is going forward.

And the submission of final offers will be in quarter 4. We expect over the next 4 weeks that we get binding offers.

And if everything is running well, we can finalize the process in the first -- latest in the second quarter of next year. Now I take over to my colleague, to Klaus, and he -- he will give you an overview about the financials.

Klaus Neumann

Thank you, Armin. Yes, we had a strong quarter in which our sales grew by 13%.

Defense sales grew even stronger. Which now make up EUR 2.3 billion or 83% of the total sales of EUR 2.8 billion.

Our operating result grew even stronger than sales to EUR 360 million, with a margin of 12.9% for the group and 15.7% for Defense. M&A activities, as you can see on the slide, contributed to the sales, but only -- there was only a limited impact to profitability because we still have some integration costs for some of the acquisitions we did this year.

Please move on to Page #11. Let's have a look at the development in the different segments of our business.

In Vehicle Systems, sales increased by 8% quarter-to-quarter to EUR 1.3 billion, driven by more tactical vehicles, including services. As you know, there are some -- truck sales was slightly lower than in previous quarter because of the delay in deliveries to the German customers.

There is a small negative mix effect and different regional split compared to the previous year. So we have a margin of 12.5% in this quarter compared to 13.1% in the previous year.

Let's move on to Weapon and Ammunition. Again, we saw the highest growth rate in this segment.

Sales grew by 38% to EUR 691 million. Important sales relate to tank ammunition and medium caliber.

As you know, artillery ammunition was held back to some extent by the delay of the new government permission for our production site in Murcia. The operating margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points to 23.2% in the third quarter.

In Electronic Solutions, sales grew -- growth was very strong with 32%, reaching EUR 516 million. Main driver were the increasing contributions from multiple digitization programs as well as increased air defense sales.

Operating margin went up to 11.0% after 10.9% in the previous year. Lastly, our Power Systems division showed slightly decreasing sales compared to the previous quarter.

As you know, the auto market is a very difficult environment at the moment. And the division is fighting hard to basically keep its ground in that difficult market.

Despite the sales decrease, operating results stayed stable compared to the previous year at EUR 18 million, slightly increasing the margin from 3.6% to 3.9%. Let's turn to Page #12.

As mentioned, Rheinmetall nomination was lower in Q3 2025 compared to previous year due to the delay in order placement, especially by the German customer. Also keep in mind that last year, we booked a large framework -- frame contract for trucks of EUR 2.9 million, just to give a bit of perspective of the development from year-to-year.

Overall, everything is going as expected. And you might have seen in our press releases, we are gaining additional order momentum on several big tickets now in the current quarter Q4.

More on this in the outlook section. Our Rheinmetall backlog rose by 23% to EUR 63.8 billion year-over-year.

Let's move to Page #13 to a look at our cash flow and our working capital development. As order intake in Rheinmetall nomination was lower than in previous year, we also did not see the large prepayments that we enjoyed in 2024 so far as a result and also as a result of the buildup of inventory for upcoming sales in the fourth quarter and in 2026.

Our cash flow was negative at minus EUR 813 million for the 9 months in 2025. The higher inventories, again, relate mostly to vehicle systems and are also impacted by the later truck deliveries compared to 2024.

Let's move to Page #14. While we have a negative operating free cash flow this year so far, we have a strong support from -- on the financing side.

I just want to give you an update on the situation with our convertible. We had no conversions of the Series B convertible bond and our total number of shares is now standing at 46 million shares.

Our equity ratio improved and is now at 32.9%. This conversion support our net liquidity position and strengthens our balance sheet.

Due to the lower level of customer prepayments, our net financial position, nevertheless, is now at minus EUR 1.9 billion. And just to give you another example of our balance sheet situation, net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.97 is still very strong and puts us in a very comfortable position to finance the upcoming M&A transaction.

With this, I would like to hand over back to Armin.

Armin Papperger

Thank you, Klaus. So I want to give you on Page 16, an outlook about the nominations and the expectations that we have in Q4 after having the German government machine running again.

So we are in negotiations, and we had the first successful -- the first success on the Jackal. Let's start on the Vehicle Systems side.

After 9 months, so we had, as Klaus said, also nearly EUR 64 billion backlog. Our expectation is on Jackal, EUR 3.4 billion is booked.

The other point is Puma. And these are always net values that we have only for Rheinmetall, not in cooperation with others.

The Puma, the expectation is that on the Puma side, we have a potential of EUR 1.4 billion. On the Lynx side, there is another potential that we have from -- once from the Italian side, but also maybe from Romania, where everything is going good.

On the Italian side will be a level of about EUR 400 million. On the Leopard side, we see EUR 0.5 billion, EUR 500 million also.

And the support vehicles on the Leopard is another EUR 300 million. And there are negotiations on the trucks, but it seems -- it can be that the trucks are also going into '26 into the first quarter into the negotiations.

On the truck side, we are in negotiations at the moment to enlarge the frame contracts and which are then fixed contracts of more than EUR 4 billion. A very positive point is also and maybe not in Q4 because it's a huge contract.

This is a Boxer contract, the government calls it Arminius. This Arminius contract is a total contract number.

There will be nominations of EUR 40 billion. And from this EUR 40 billion, we expect more than EUR 22 billion also for Rheinmetall.

But this will happen very safe in '26 and not longer into '25. But if it happens in Q1 or Q2, I will be very happy.

Next point, let's go to Weapon and Ammunition. On the Weapon and Ammunition side, there are the final negotiation on the 155 fixed contracts.

And there are different numbers at the moment in discussions. First of all, we discussed about 1.7 million rounds, then 1 million round.

Maybe it's in this year, a little bit reduced because they want to bring something to this year and to next year to create fixed contracts. But the expectation in total on the ammunition side is an expectation of around EUR 6 billion.

So if you count it up everything, it's EUR 5.5 billion to EUR 6 billion for the vehicles, minimum, EUR 6 billion on the ammunition. Then we go to Electronic Solutions.

On the Electronic Solutions side, we see the satellite program and the contract that we expect this can be around EUR 2 billion. The Skyranger is implemented in the program Arminius.

And then we have Luchs 2 weapons and weapon stations, about EUR 300 million laser light modules, EUR 300 million loitering ammunition. This is what you have seen in the newspapers over the last 2 weeks, the first bigger contracts for drones.

And also some other smaller contracts so that we see a potential of EUR 3 billion that we can reach this year. The rest will be in first quarter and second quarter, and this is the big bunch then, which is coming in the first and the second quarter next year.

If you count up everything, so we are still in the range of around EUR 80 billion, how we expected at the beginning of the year. Don't hit me if it is, let me say, EUR 78 billion or EUR 82 million or if the big contract is coming earlier on ammunition, it's a little bit more, but let me say, around EUR 80 billion is a fair value.

Now let's go to Page 17. On Page 17, on the outlook.

A positive signal is also that 95% or more than 95% of the backlog coverage we have, let me say, in our books. So we are confident about the full year guidance.

On the sales side, we think that on the defense, we can grow between 35% and 40%. There is no growth rate on the civilian business, maybe a little bit shrinking business in that area.

And the operating margin will be around 15.5%. And it depends a little bit for sure about the down payments because as you say, at the moment, the operational free cash flow on Q3 is very negative.

But with the new German contracts, usually, we expect between 20% and 30% down payment so that then the cash conversion rate would be positive. If the down payments are delayed, we will get the cash in the first quarter.

So far. And now we can start the Q&A.

Thank you very much.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Sebastian Growe from BNP Paribas Exane.

Sebastian Growe

The first one would be on the nominations and the chart that you presented on Page or Slide 16. So the question here for me is, as you also made reference to the frame contracts and the wake of the trucks business in particular.

I think on earlier occasions, you said that you were expecting probably an upgrading from the EUR 20 billion of frame contracts by the 50% option, i.e., EUR 30 billion. You have been putting the trucks potentially at EUR 4 billion.

So how should we think of the latest developments in this frame contract conversion? And then also with regard to the down payments that you mentioned at 20% to 30%.

You also said on prior occasions that you are in discussions with the customer to eventually also think about special timing to put this way. So what's the latest in this regard?

And if I may then finally ask one very quick high-level question around the guidance. It seems apparently that on the sales side, things are in flux and it's not least coming down probably to Spain, the restart and then also to the truck deliveries to the German customer.

So my high-level question simply is, are you confident to reach the operating profit target of around EUR 2 billion, almost irrespective of what's happening to the top line?

Armin Papperger

Yes. So let's start with the nominations on the nomination side, as I said, we are in discussion to get fixed contracts also on the trucks for up to 29.

This is what we are in discussions. And we hope we can reach that.

And you are absolutely right. If everything is going well, there is a potential, which is 50% to the nominations that we had.

At the moment, I want to reach the first step to change nomination into fixed contracts and also to get the down payments. This is on the truck side, and this is also on the ammunition side.

So this is -- if we, let me say, have smaller -- this was a discussion that we had. Is it good if we get the huge contracts to have it on, let me say, on -- yes, in one shot.

Or is it better to get it in 2 or 3 shots also the down payments? At the moment, we take whatever we can get.

And we are in negotiations that for everything at the moment, which is going from frame contract to fixed contracts or in new contracts to get between 20% and 30%. Second point is on the guidance.

Yes, there is an impact -- still an impact on the Spanish side because we are -- still have not the permission. We are in the last stage to get it, but the government is -- it's a governmental decision when they give us the stamp, but we expect we get it.

We stay on the sales side because, as you know, the impact is an area of EUR 150 million. But I think we are able to compensate in different areas because there are such -- the business is in between so big that it is possible to compensate it.

But at least we are able to compensate on the operating margin. This is exactly what we expect, and we expect to go up to this EUR 2 billion target.

So that should be possible if not extraordinary things happen. But at the moment, we are in line.

Is that fair enough, Mr. Growe?

Operator

The next question comes from Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies.

Chloe Lemarie

I had one on Murcia, but I guess that was already answered. The other one is actually on free cash flow.

So assuming you get those 20% to 30% and obviously, with the reversal of the inventory buildup you've done over the past 9 months, how high could free cash flow conversion get if you do reach all the contracts that you expect by year-end?

Klaus Neumann

Yes. As you mentioned, we do have a negative cash flow up to the end of September.

It highly depends on what kind of contracts will be placed in 2025 and also what kind of prepayment arrangements, we will be able to negotiate. As Armin mentioned, in some cases, the actual cash in might be -- might fall into Q1 2026.

So it might. There's a huge volatility at the moment, and it's quite difficult to exactly predict.

But if everything is ordered already in 2025, and we do get all the payments already in 2025, it would be substantially above the 40% that we mentioned.

Armin Papperger

It's easy to calculate, Klaus, if I can help. It's EUR 15 billion that we will have in order intake.

And therefore, EUR 3 billion is, let me say, the potential of down payments.

Operator

The next question comes from Sam Burgess from Goldman Sachs.

Samuel Burgess

Two, if I may. Firstly, there's obviously been a big pickup in interest across Europe on air defense over the last quarter.

Could you just talk us through the opportunities you see here? At the moment, your portfolio is quite focused on short-range air defense.

Do you see any opportunities to expand the portfolio maybe into something more medium range? And then the second question would just be about, I guess, interoperability between the operational domains.

You've got pretty good coverage across 5 operational domains now. Do you see an opportunity here for Rheinmetall to be a prime integrator of Battlefield software?

Armin Papperger

Yes. So on the short-range air defense, we are focused at the moment from the gun side.

But as you know, we also offer the missile solutions, and we implement the missile solutions into our gun solutions. So the Skynex, for example, will have also a gun solution, but also our Skynex system has gun and missile solutions.

So yes, we focus on both. On the drone side, and this is the big numbers that you have, as you know, Germany is looking for 600, 650 systems.

It's not 100% fixed. But we have now also Denmark.

We have Austria. We have a lot of other European partners who buy that systems.

And our expectation is that we are able to sell much more than 1,000 Skyrangers. Skynex system is very successful.

I can give you that information that on the Skynex side in Ukraine, we are also able not to fight against drones. We fight it against missiles.

And we had the first successes also to shoot down missiles in the Ukraine. So everybody is very happy about that thing.

So in a nutshell, yes, we focus on the big pieces, which are the total systems. Second, yes, we focus also on the missile implementation.

And we want later, but this will happen in maybe 2, 3, 4 years, produce also some missiles then by ourselves if our rocket motor and missile center is ready in Unterlüß. Battlefield.

On the battlefield management system is, I think the best thing is what we are doing at the moment in Germany, and we want to implement that also in other European partners. On Germany, we create the infrastructure.

We create the battlefield management in total. We have the huge digitization contracts of more than EUR 15 billion to do this digitization from the German side.

There are needs in other countries. The Netherlands is looking for such a system.

Hungary is looking for such a system. So there are opportunities for us.

But we are not at the moment in the situation that we said we will sign over the next 6 months contracts in this area. So -- but yes, we are prepared.

And yes, we want to do it.

Operator

The next question comes from Sven Weier from UBS.

Sven Weier

The first one is just coming back to the list of projects. We had a debate in Germany recently about maybe last-minute changes on the Fuchs successor where I guess quite a few local states' presidents have lobbied in favor of you guys in terms of getting into the project despite the fact that it had been kind of awarded to Patria already.

So that would obviously be a big change and a big project. I mean, what is your latest take on this one?

Armin Papperger

Yes. The Fuchs point is it's an initiative of the Premier, and it's not an initiative of Rheinmetall, and it's at the end of the day, a political decision.

The minister was very clear to say, okay, we want to have the first lot to do that together with our friends from Finland. And we will see if there is a split or is there no split, I'm open for everything.

We are ready. We are ready to perform, and we are ready to perform also on Fuchs 2, but it's a political decision.

There are no further news. We are not at the moment in negotiations with the government.

This -- the Premier's initiative is a political initiative and we are here and we are ready to perform.

Sven Weier

So it's not too late for this one.

Armin Papperger

Look, at the end of the day, I always said it's never too late, yes. You always have to try your chance.

And at the end of the day, you never ever should give up.

Sven Weier

Yes, that sounds fair. The second question I had was just -- I mean, there's a bit of discussion lately with the upcoming CSG IPO and competition from Eastern European companies.

I mean, as a matter of fact, you are striking all the deals in Eastern Europe on these ammunition and powder plants. I mean, for the sake of the audience, I mean, what do you think still differentiates you from those kind of competitors, which also seem to be quite a bit aggressive, but you take the contracts, that would be interesting.

Armin Papperger

Yes. I think that -- and it must be because the governments, if you see Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, the governments show that -- I think we are able to show these governments that we are very trustful partners.

This is number one. The second point is that they see, and this is -- this was a good example, what we have shown Werk Niedersachsen that we are performing, that we are able to make it happen in 12 months and maybe not in 3 or 4 years.

So this is the second point where we say, okay, we have to hurry up. There is a budget.

And the other thing is that the financing, and this is a positive signal also for us from the governmental side will be mostly done via save money from the European Union. So I think the combination between a huge player, a trustful partner and a company who has shown the performance in different areas are positive.

Another positive thing is that we have the newest technologies that we want to produce there. So we produce -- we have all these technologies on powder.

There are not a lot of companies around the world who have these technologies of powder, the newest technologies for triple-base powder or even harder the surface coated powder technology, nobody has that. But we want to do this also in that country because we see that all these factories will be guided from Rheinmetall.

IPRs are also under Rheinmetall control. So there is a combination of newest projectiles and newest powder technologies that we implement in that country and the countries are happy with that.

And on the other side, I think that we are able to create all the things because we have our own planning. We have our own real estate company who is going forward in these areas.

We can do it very fast, and we can do it for a fair price. I think that's a combination with 4, 5 aspects that I told you that we win the contracts.

I'm not unhappy about that.

Sven Weier

And is it also the input that you have from South Africa from the engineering capabilities that you have down there?

Armin Papperger

Yes, it's a small part also, but it's part of the ecosystem that we build up that in South Africa with the -- with our companies that we have there because we have 2 companies. One company in South Africa is doing the shell production and implement all that things, the same what they also did in Unterlüß.

And the second one is doing that we bought these chemical components. And so we are not dependent from other companies, and there are not a lot of companies also in the world who are able to do this chemical stuff, so how to build RDX plants, how to build powder plants, how to build these chemical converters, et cetera, et cetera.

And this makes us reliable. This makes us fast.

And I think this is the decision-making process of the government. But at the end of the day, the governments, I'm happy if they share -- if they say, okay, Rheinmetall is a reliable partner, let's do it with them.

But at the end of the day, as I said, they are in the driver's seat.

Operator

The next question comes from Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank.

Christoph Laskawi

The first one on M&A. You just said the idea is to double revenues of NVL in '26, if I understood that correctly.

It's obviously quite a big step-up. Is that already in the books?

Or do you need to see some business wins in Q4 for that one to happen as well? And then on Iveco, it seems that Leonardo is still pointing to some uncertainty if it makes sense to carve out the defense trucks business and sell it to you.

Where do you see the likelihood of that deal coming through next year and if it makes sense? And then the second question would be on the order intake.

With the last call in Q2, you said the potential that you highlighted to some degree is conservative. If we think basically today, how does the potential look versus the communication around Q2.

Was there still more business opportunities that emerged, so even better? Or is it essentially unchanged?

Armin Papperger

The last thing I didn't get, do you think for next year, the -- up to Q2 next year or...

Christoph Laskawi

Yes, correct. Yes.

Armin Papperger

Okay. Order intake and on business.

So yes, let's start with that. On Q2 or up to Q2 in the next year, there is -- I would say, every week, there are new businesses coming up.

What we told you is still valid, what we want to do also in the next year. And I think the next year will be a very strong year also for order intake.

It's not bad what we do this year, yes. And if we can grow up to nearly, let me say, EUR 80 billion, I think it's not a bad value.

But if -- my expectation is that up to Q2, and this is always what I thought, there is really a potential to grow up -- potential to grow up to EUR 120 billion backlog. So it's a very strong Q1 and Q2 next year.

Trucks on the Italian side is, look, for me, it's a point that we have a handshake agreement and that we will -- first of all, that Leonardo takes over, and then we have the opportunity to go in. I have no glass ball.

I cannot tell you what happens. First of all, there is a process at the moment what's going on.

I read the comment also if -- how to go forward. Anyway, it's a potential, but we have it not in our business plan.

And I still think that the handshake agreements are agreements between gentlemen that work. Next point is NVL.

On the NVL side, yes, it is in the order books and the order book is a good one, and we can grow with the order book, and there are smaller contracts for sure coming in. We are able in 2026 to grow up to more than EUR 2.5 billion.

Operator

And the next question comes from Marie-Ange Riggio from Morgan Stanley.

Marie-Ange Riggio

I just would like to come back on Germany because obviously, we have seen the '25 defense budget passed, and now we will have a new budget for '26. So I just would like to know if there is any update on the addressable market for you.

So what do you see in terms of budget allocation? How much like to go to equipment?

And if German companies are clearly the priority for the government and if you still see a potential for 50% market share? So that's my first question.

The second question is on capacity expansion because you have announced several capacity expansion in weapon and ammunition since September with [ Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania ]. So I just would like to confirm and to know if it's incremental to your previous target that you gave?

And if it's incremental, if you can just update us on the capacity outlook now?

Armin Papperger

Yes. Let's start with the ammunition side.

On the ammunition side, we always said and we calculated and you know when we discussed, Marie-Ange, that we calculated that in 2027, we want to grow up to 1.1 million rounds. And we speak always about this arxillery technologies.

Yes, there is also medium-caliber technologies, but 1.1 million. And in 2030, we will have a total capacity if everything is running 100% to 1.5 million rounds.

But at the moment, we do not plan more because we think that then we have an overcapacity and we want to fill these factories up, let me say, also up to 2035. So I don't want to have overcapacities in these areas.

So no, it is not add on. It is exactly what we expected.

This is exactly what we planned. And Lithuania is in the plan.

Bulgaria, these are not so huge factories that we have. So -- and we speak then if you have 1.1 million or 1.5 million, we speak about 100,000 rounds -- about that.

So it's less than 10% of that is going on. Is it possible to do a little bit more?

I think, yes, but it's not in my expectation. So I stay with the figures that we had before.

Is that okay?

Marie-Ange Riggio

Yes, perfect. And just on Germany.

Armin Papperger

Yes. On the German side, at the moment, all the expectations are that we have are running.

So we have huge negotiations. My teams are every day at the moment in -- with the government to make these huge numbers also of negotiations.

There is, for sure, one thing that will be the news on the Capital Markets Day to give you a detailed overview about the naval business, what we are doing because the naval business, for sure, was not part of the discussion that we had over the last months. And there is a huge opportunity, and we want to give you in detail then the opportunities that we have on the naval business side.

So I'm still -- I still think that we have the opportunity to grab a big piece of that, what the government's contract is giving out.

Operator

And the next question comes from Marco Vitale from Mediobanca.

Marco Vitale

The first one is on the space JV that you have announced. You were targeting -- you said that you are targeting the German market, but also looking at other international opportunities.

I was wondering if you could provide us how do you expect to position the JV compared to the other, say, big European JV that's been announced by Thales, Airbus and Leonardo. What could be the, say, competitive landscape going forward for this business?

The second question is about Ukraine. We read from local press articles that you are planning to strengthen the operation for the vehicle systems.

If you could provide us some additional details on this.

Armin Papperger

Yes. So on the space side, we are newcomers in this area.

We know that very well. And -- but we -- I think we started on a smart way because we are not starting to develop huge satellite programs.

We are starting to make more from the same what is still in the market. And this is what we do with our joint venture with ICEYE.

The German government asked us that they want to have also a German production line, and we build that up at the moment. And if we are able over the next 4 weeks to sign the first contract on the satellite side, then we see a huge opportunity also only for the German market because Germany wants to invest EUR 35 billion into satellites.

This is not a small number. And we are starting with the SAR satellites, but we will go also into the electro-optic and also into the communication satellite with other partners.

I still cannot give more details about that because this is not signed at the moment. But even if we can pick up a big part of the German contracts, it's an attractive business for us.

But if you have the satellite then in the orbit, you can use that satellite also for other partners. And Ukraine, on the Ukrainian side is, yes, we are -- we build up more capacities also on the vehicle side, absolutely right.

And what we want is we are now because the Ukrainian government gave green lights also now for the inventory fighting vehicle for the links. We stay with MDA, we stay with the Leopard maintenance, et cetera, et cetera.

But now the green light for the links is there. And it's the first -- it's small numbers.

It's only 5 Lynx where they want to start. And -- but I think the government is now very convinced about that this is a very useful vehicle in this conflict with Russia.

And then we want to build up also capacities to build the links in Ukraine. Is that okay, Marco?

Operator

Then the next question comes from Adrien Rabier from Bernstein.

Adrien Rabier

First, I'd like to ask a follow-up on your margins, please. You had positive mix on a division-by-division level, your margins have been contracting slightly in Q3.

So are you still comfortable with your targets there? Do we expect a bottom-up inflection in Q4?

And then a question on CapEx, please. It's great to see all these new projects.

I mean you were talking about doing more partnerships in the U.S. this morning.

Are you still expecting CapEx to normalize in the coming years? Or are we expecting more investments?

Armin Papperger

Yes. On the margin side, you know that the big lever will come in Q4.

And on the margins, we stay where we were. And this is -- we have our target margins and the people have to reach this target margins.

As you know, we have the ability because of the vertical integration between 25% and 30% on the ammunition side. We want to reach on the vehicle side between 12% and 15% where we are.

And Electronic Solutions will have a strong growth rate over the next years with digitization. We will also have a look -- a very sharp look on the air defense side, which -- where we see also opportunities because we also have very strong vertical integration in this area, where we can make between 15% and 20% so that our target that we are -- over the next years can reach the 20% EBIT profitability in the defense side is still valid.

So therefore, from my side, absolutely tick in a box. Now I lost your second point, Adrien.

Adrien Rabier

On CapEx, please?

Armin Papperger

CapEx, CapEx. So on the CapEx side, we will have, as you know, this year and also next year, we go on the CapEx side up to an area of 10%.

This is what we need because of all the investments on ammunition and also the automization that we do on the vehicle side. But this CapEx will be over the next 2, 3 years going down.

Is it going down back to 5%? It depends a little bit about the contracts that we say maybe it is between 5% and 6%.

But we -- I think we can overcompensate that thing if the down payments are really coming in. And this is what we want to do with our customers.

Operator

The next question comes from Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America.

Benjamin Heelan

First was, I mean, you have a statement in here about -- in your presentation about strength of the balance sheet and that's supporting your M&A. I think you say ambitions or something.

Could you talk a little bit about where you want to deploy capital over the next couple of years post the Naval deal? And then could we get a bit of an update in terms of where we are on both Anduril and the Lockheed ventures, that would be great.

Armin Papperger

Okay. Let's start with Lockheed and Anduril, but also a lot of others that we have.

So we are working very hard at the moment with our American friends to create a European business also or a transatlantic business between United States of America and Europe. And I think the best way for that is really to have the joint ventures where -- and we are looking at the moment also with other companies to do it.

And it's not -- so it's very open that we speak with Honeywell, we speak with Raytheon, and we speak with others in that area because the product portfolio is, yes, very different also with the U.S. companies.

But now especially also with the naval stuff that where we are investing is there is a huge opportunity also for naval missiles and others, and Lockheed is usually not the producer of that, but Raytheon is it. So -- in a nutshell, it's going very, very well, and we are very, very happy.

Strengthening our naval business. And if I understood right, then, also is there are there investments or other things that we have to do in this area.

I think that the shipyards that we take over, that these shipyards are at the moment, really, really in good shape, that we are able to use it immediately and that we are able also to grow strong in that point. What -- did I miss something?

Klaus Neumann

I think the other bit was basically how we are looking at capital allocation over the next couple of years. And as we always said, we are continuing to look into M&A targets.

And it's always a preference to basically to, a, first finance our organic growth, then look at good business opportunities for acquisitions. as they have proven in the last years.

And only at the very last thing, it would be to basically use cash for share buybacks or something else. At the moment, we don't see that happening.

Armin Papperger

There are opportunities to buy companies, and that's good for the growth.

Benjamin Heelan

I guess, I mean, sorry, just to follow up. I guess my question was, you just said that the opportunity is to buy companies, which are the areas within defense are you looking at buying companies now?

Armin Papperger

Yes. The first thing is we want to stabilize very clear now the naval business.

Is there something what you can use around electronics and other things, what we did on the Land Systems side, we are looking for that. We have no fixed target at the moment.

The second point is digitization. On the digitization side, we have to grow.

We are looking for start-ups. We are looking for investments also in digital companies.

Even if we start with a minority and later to take over, there are a lot of companies where we see at the moment where we can fill smaller gaps that we still have inside the Rheinmetall Group. And we are looking for that.

But you said we -- as you know, Ben, we are very careful in these areas. And first of all, we check it a lot.

And I think all the acquisitions we made over the last 5 years were not so bad.

Operator

The next question comes from David Perry from JPMorgan.

David Perry

Sadly, I can't make the CMD. So my questions are a bit in that context.

First one, back in about 6 months ago, Armin, you started talking about EUR 40 billion to EUR 50 billion of sales potential in 2030. Has anything materially changed in the last 5, 6 months that would change your view up or down there?

And then the second question is, if it is still EUR 40 billion to EUR 50 billion, can you just help us think about the cadence, the journey from '25 to 2030 in terms of percentage growth, is it even? Is it front-loaded?

Is it backloaded?

Armin Papperger

Yes. Yes, this is -- David, this is exactly the story I want to tell you on the Capital Markets Day.

So it's really bad that you are not able to come there because I need a long time about that because this is division per division, and we want to see exactly -- want to tell you exactly on the Capital Markets Day, how we make it happen. So -- but in the calculation, at the end of the day, it's simple, where you want to go.

So -- and this is the days. And on the ammunition side, we have the ability to grow up to more than EUR 10 billion, maybe up to EUR 15 billion.

On the vehicle side, yes, at the end of the day, it's the same. So it will be more than EUR 10 billion, but also up to EUR 15 billion.

So we are on a level of EUR 30 billion. So Electronic Solutions, yes, this will be -- there will be a possibility also to grow up, if I make it conservative, between EUR 5 billion and EUR 10 billion, but maybe more on the EUR 10 billion side.

On the air defense side, we go to a level of EUR 3 billion to EUR 5 billion. And on the naval side, we want to be more than EUR 5 billion.

So if you count up and if you see it's EUR 30 billion, EUR 40 billion, it's EUR 50 billion maximum. And this is EUR 40 million to EUR 250 million.

So now the point is you can ask me now if you have now more M&A in this area. Is there more in?

Yes. This is, in a nutshell, the story that we will tell in the Capital Markets Day.

I'm very unhappy that you will not come. So this is -- you will see live firings, you will see drones flying.

You will see everything about that, everything is live. I think nobody will show you that.

David Perry

Right now, I'm very upset. My colleague, Lucy will be there.

I just have a clash. Can I just ask though about -- because now we've all seen the kind of some of the releases from the German government, I know they're not all formally into law yet.

But I was just wondering if you had a little better feel for the phasing because some of the vehicle programs look like they'll take time to ramp up. So will we see more of the growth in '28 to '29?

Or could we see more in '26, '27?

Armin Papperger

No, you are right that it is more backloaded and '28, '29. And the reason is we need next year for automization.

The same what we need for the ammunition side. We need 1 year, maybe 14 months, 15 months to make all the automization streets.

Welding streets, we will give you also an overview in Capital Markets Day, what we do on automization in detail. And so then if we are ready, then we start with the production in '27 and '28, '29, we will run the business.

So '29, I think, full throttle the vehicle business. '27, as we said, we start with the ammunition side.

So this is good. Vehicle is 1.5, 2 years later.

Electronic Solutions is the same like vehicle systems. Air Defense will also, let me say, is in a ramp-up curve in '28.

But '28, '29 and 2030 are 3 years now where we book our business, where we are very well equipped and that makes me happy to reach this EUR 40 billion to EUR 50 billion.

Operator

The next question comes from George Mcwhirter from Berenberg.

George Mcwhirter

I've got 2, please. Firstly, on the NVL business.

Can you just update us on the potential to gain more work share on the F126 frigate program? And the second one is on supply chain.

Please, can you just talk a little bit about raw materials and rare earth minerals and any potential bottlenecks you're seeing there?

Armin Papperger

Yes. NVL, F126, you know there are some bigger contracts, but F126 is a real big one.

I think that the government will make a decision how to go forward. And I personally think it's not a decision done at the moment.

And to be fair enough, I cannot go operationally at the moment because it's not -- we have no closing. So I can only say if the closing is positive, we, for sure, will help the German government that the F126 will be a successful program.

I cannot say more about that legally. Is that fair?

George Mcwhirter

That's fair.

Armin Papperger

Yes. Second point, supply chain.

On the supply chain side, we make weekly -- weekly a stress test on this area. We have a bigger problem on the supply chain on automotive than on defense.

And the reason is because on the defense side, we have -- we stocked everything up. So this was a point that is rare earth.

Everything what we spoke about, [indiscernible], blah, blah, blah, it's for years, let me say, in the stock. We have billions in our stock at the moment.

The second point is that our -- because of the smaller numbers, yes, if you go into the auto business, you have to produce millions and millions. If you go into the defense business and if you don't need it on the ammunition side, this is the only thing ammunitions are millions that we are producing.

But for vehicles and for other electronic components, we usually have no problem. What we can do is if there is something that we don't have in our stock, you can go to the technology traders and these technologies traders take care about that if our purchasing department is not able to bring it, you pay maybe a little bit more money, but with these small numbers, it really doesn't matter.

At the moment, we see no obstacles that one -- that there is -- that, for example, China can stop us, yes. On the microprocessors, we have different sources.

We have 10 different sources. And I think that we have a very professional sourcing system on our purchasing.

Our purchasing director is doing a great job in this area so that we are on the safe side.

Operator

And the next question comes from Afonso Osorio from Barclays.

Afonso Osorio

Just going back to the long-term margin ambition you just mentioned. So you posted 20% again on the defense side.

I just wanted to double check this. So does that mean that you expect to keep the margin on the ammunition side above 25% in the long term?

Or do you expect that to see that normalizing down the line? And then maybe on the business mix as well, you can see you will split the Electronics Solutions division into 2 new ones from next year.

Can you perhaps tell us the growth profile and margin differential between the Air Defense division and the Digital division going forward, please, as well?

Armin Papperger

Yes. So on the ammunition side, I believe that we can stay on this 25% to 30% of our vertical integration.

We discussed that several times. And the point is that I have different companies.

One company is producing, let me say, the raw material, the other company is producing the powder. And this is the same what our competitors are doing, but they do not have everything in their own hands.

And we have everything in our own hands. And so therefore, this is the reason that the margin are high.

Ammunition by themselves has a margin like you have, let me say, after the rules and regulation of the government. But profit on profit is an opportunity is the opportunity that we can make it.

Will it stay on this area? Yes, we will stay on that area because now with automization, we still reduce the personnel costs on that so that we are able to stay in that area even if over the next years, and that is what we are doing at the moment for the huge contracts for Germany, we will discount.

And also with that discount, we are able to stay on a very profitable way. Air Defense, on the air defense side, if you see Air Defense and digitization, air defense will be faster higher -- has faster or higher profitability than the digitization because the investment on the digitization at the beginning is high.

But later then, the digitization will be on the same level or higher than Air Defense. But on Air Defense, I expect also up to 20% EBIT.

So -- and on the digitization, not tomorrow, but for the day after tomorrow, I expect the same.

Operator

So it seems there are no further questions at this time. So I would like to turn the conference back over to Armin Papperger for any closing remarks.

Armin Papperger

Yes. Thank you.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Like always, it's a pleasure to discuss with you about the things.

I'm very happy to see nearly everybody from your side on our Capital Markets Day at Unterlüß. Very happy to show you live and -- but also in presentations, what we are able to do.

Take care, stay healthy, all the best. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over, and you may disconnect. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day.

Goodbye.