Swedbank AB (publ)

Swedbank AB (publ)

SWDBF
Swedbank AB (publ)US flagOther OTC
36.70
USD
-2.25
- -
41.24BMarket Cap

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 17, 2026

APIChatGPT

Maria Caneman

Morning. Thank you for dialing in this morning.

I am Maria Caneman, Head of IR here at Swedbank. Welcome to our second quarter results.

I'm joined today by CEO Jens Henriksson and CFO Jon Lidefelt. We will first listen to their presentations, and then you will have an opportunity to ask questions.

With that, over to you, Jens.

Maria Caneman

Jens Henriksson

Thank you, Maria. Swedbank has once again delivered a strong result in uncertain times.

The global economy continues to show resilience despite geopolitical tensions. Last week, the IMF projected a modest slowdown in global growth this year.

Technological development, especially AI, is offsetting some of the negative effects from geopolitical tensions. The global economy is being pushed in opposite directions.

Our economists estimate that the GDP of Sweden, Estonia, and Latvia will grow by around 2% this year. Lithuania is expected to see stronger growth by around 3%.

In these uncertain times, Swedbank has once again delivered strong results, the quarter was characterized by a clear customer and business focus. Profit for the quarter amounted to SEK 7.2 billion.

If we exclude the extraordinary cost related to the restructuring program announced last quarter, return on equity amounted to 15.5% and the cost-to-income ratio to 0.39. Earnings per share was SEK 6.37.

Credit quality is solid. Credit impairments were SEK 313 million, corresponding to six basis points.

Swedbank has a strong capital and liquidity position, our CET1 capital buffer amounts to 2.6 percentage points. During the quarter, both Fitch and Moody's raised Swedbank's credit ratings.

In their decisions, they highlight the bank's strong capitalization, good credit quality, and stable risk profile. Yesterday, Swedbank reached a settlement with the New York State Department of Financial Services, DFS, to pay $50 million for failure to disclose information to the authority on two occasions, once in 2016 and once in 2018.

With this settlement, all investigations into Swedbank's historical shortcomings have been concluded, we can now put this behind us. Our customer promise is to make our customers' financial life easier, we continue to deliver on our plan, Swedbank 15/27.

It's a plan with a clear customer focus to strengthen our customer interactions, grow our business volumes, and increase our efficiency. As part of this, subsidiaries have been moved into the business areas to further increase focus on business and customers.

The bank's savings business have been moved into a unified organization. Swedbank Robur and Swedbank Försäkring, our insurance company, are now part of premium and private banking, the name of the business area has thus been changed to Wealth Management.

During the quarter, we had strong lending growth, the activity in advisory was high. We have a clear business momentum across all our markets.

Through high availability and stronger business focus, we can further support our customers with financing, savings, and advisory. Our proactive work contributed to high activity in the mortgage business during the quarter.

During the first two months of the quarter, we captured around 20% of total market growth in Sweden in our own channels. This reflects our goal to grow more than, or at least in line with, the market.

We also saw continued strong growth in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and our mortgage portfolio increased by 3% in local currency. The high level of activity is also reflected in the positive development in our savings business.

Growth was driven by strong net inflows and positive market development, the net inflow to Swedbank Robur was SEK 22 billion. Among strong competition, two additional Swedbank Robur funds were selected to the Swedish premium pension system.

This reflects the strengths of our offering. The bank's corporate business continues to develop well.

Our clear customer focus is producing results, corporate lending grew by SEK 18 billion. The growth was driven by several sectors and mainly by the real estate sector.

We also saw high demand for bond issues. In continued times of uncertainty, we support our customers and the activity in corporate advisory increased.

The interest in sustainable products remains high. Around 40% of the bonds we arranged during the quarter were classified as sustainable, and our sustainable asset register now amounts to SEK 179 billion.

We constantly work to develop the bank and our customer offering, and we see that AI solutions used within the bank are producing clear results. For example, we recently introduced an AI solution that will be rolled out to all employees during the year.

Oken, as it's called, will contribute to higher quality, security and efficiency, and not the least, cost control. Speaking about cost control, I'll hand over to our CFO, Jon Lidefelt.

Jens Henriksson

Jon Lidefelt

Thank you, Jens. We deliver a strong quarter characterized by high business momentum and continued focus on long-term shareholder value.

The return on equity was 15.5% and cost income ratio 0.39, excluding the extraordinary costs. Including the SEK 860 million in extraordinary costs during this quarter, return on equity was 14.2% and cost income ratio 0.43.

We are delivering on our plan Swedbank 15/27, and the restructuring program presented in Q1 is progressing according to plan. Lending volumes increased by 2% during the quarter, supported by strong activity across all core markets and business areas.

In Sweden, mortgage volumes originated through our own channels increased by SEK 7 billion. In total, mortgage volumes increased by SEK 8 billion.

The positive trend in corporates and institutions continued with SEK 16 billion of loan growth. In Baltic Banking, growth momentum remained strong.

Mortgage volumes increased by SEK 4 billion and corporate lending by SEK 2 billion, supported by demand across sectors. Deposit volumes continued to trend positively during the quarter, primarily driven by private deposits.

In Sweden, private deposits grew. In general, corporate deposits also increased but was offset by a decrease from a few larger institutions.

In Baltic Banking, private deposits grew by SEK 14 billion, mainly due to the Lithuanian pension reform, which also impacted corporate deposits negatively. Net interest income increased by 1% compared with the previous quarter, mainly driven by higher market rates in Baltic Banking and the generally higher business volumes.

Lending margins continued to be pressured while deposit margins increased. FX and day count effect had a positive impact of SEK 127 million.

Funding costs increased during the quarter, primarily driven by higher market rates early in the period. This was partly offset by higher income from central bank placements.

As a reminder, changes in mortgage rates typically flow through to our lending portfolio with a lag of approximately three months in Sweden and six months in the Baltics. Overall, our interest rate sensitivity is as expected, with the effects on funding materializing ahead of the asset repricing.

Net commission income increased by 7% compared with the first quarter. Asset management commissions benefited from strong stock market performance, positive FX effects, and high net inflow of SEK 22 billion.

Total assets under management increased to SEK 2.9 trillion. Payment-related income continued to develop well with seasonally higher cards income.

Insurance income was lower, mainly though due to the annual profit sharing from insurance partners that was booked in the first quarter. Net gains and losses was high in the quarter with strong underlying customer-driven result characterized by high business activity, primarily in fixed income and debt capital markets.

Net gains and losses was further impacted by positive treasury revaluation effects. Other income increased by 23% in the quarter, mainly driven by stronger result from the insurance business in Baltic Banking due to claims normalizing and positive revaluations.

Results from associated companies improved. As a reminder, our collaboration with the savings banks includes cost-sharing for IT development and administrative services.

The compensation received from the savings banks is recognized within other income, while the corresponding costs are included in our total expenses. Costs developed as expected and in line with previous communication.

We incurred SEK 860 million of the announced SEK 1.3 billion extraordinary costs for 2026. Adjusting for this, underlying costs follow the usual seasonal pattern and are somewhat higher in the quarter due to the annual salary revision in the Baltic countries.

Our cost guidance of SEK 27.5 billion for 2026 is unchanged. It is excluding extraordinary costs and FX.

As we said in Q1, by the end of next year, we expect our FTE level to be around 16,800. This is an effect of the restructuring program where we are strengthening our foundation for future growth, enhancing efficiency, supporting capital generation, and our ability to deliver attractive and sustainable returns to shareholders over time.

In 2027, we will continue to have an elevated investment level related to this. As the synergies will start to materialize, I expect them to offset the additional costs in 2027.

By the end of 2028, the changes are expected to be fully implemented, delivering a lower cost run rate of SEK 1 billion. Asset quality remained solid.

Total credit impairments amounted to SEK 313 million or 6 basis points. Macroeconomic assumptions were updated during the quarter, adding SEK 108 million.

Rating and stage migration added SEK 462 million and was primarily impacted by a few corporate customers and by the updated macro assumptions. As a consequence of the updated macro scenario, the post-model adjustment is reduced by SEK 109 million and now amounts to SEK 161 million.

Individually assessed provisions decreased primarily related to a limited number of corporate customers, where stage 3 exposures have been resolved. Entercard added SEK 116 million to total impairments driven by model adjustment.

Overall, we continue to see a resilient credit portfolio supported by prudent underwriting standards, strong collateralization, and a well-diversified lending book. Our CET1 capital ratio at quarter end was 17.4%, corresponding to a buffer of 260 basis points above regulatory requirements, highlighting our strong capital and providing substantial flexibility to support customers, growth, and shareholder value creation.

With that, back to you, Jens.

Jon Lidefelt

Jens Henriksson

Let me now summarize. Swedbank has once again delivered a strong result in uncertain times.

We present an adjusted return on equity of 15.5%. The quarter was characterized by high activity, and we have a clear business momentum across all our markets.

We've had strong growth in our lending. The activity in advisory was high, and we are well-positioned for continued growth and profitability.

We continue to deliver according to our plan, Swedbank 15/27, with strengthened customer interactions, increased business volumes, and improved efficiency. Our customers' future is our focus.

With that, back to you, Maria.

Jens Henriksson

Maria Caneman

Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A session.

Kind reminder to please limit yourselves to two questions per turn. Operator, please go ahead.

Maria Caneman

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone.

You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time.

The first question comes from the line of Jacob Egelev from SEB Equities. Please go ahead.

Operator

Jacob Egelev

Good morning and thanks. My first question is on capital.

Now that the DFS settlement removes the last major outstanding legal uncertainty, how do you think about the appropriate CET1 buffer going forward? Does this change the calculus around capital returns to shareholders, whether through buybacks, dividends, or both?

Jacob Egelev

Jens Henriksson

Thank you. As you know, we have a capital buffer range between 100 and 300 basis points.

In our 15/27 plan, we target the middle of it, i.e., 200 basis points. As you know, we have a dividend policy of 60%-70%, and capital release above our dividend policy continues to be a judgment call.

With all the U.S. investigations behind us, the uncertainties have, of course, diminished, and we have no intention of holding more capital than necessary.

Jens Henriksson

Jacob Egelev

Perfect. If I remember correctly, Jens, you have said before that you were open to the possibility of calling an extra AGM once all the investigations were closed and do an inter-year dividend distribution.

Has this changed, or how do you view the excess capital that you currently sit on?

Jacob Egelev

Jens Henriksson

Well, I have no recollection of saying that. We have an AGM each and every year and have no plans to do something different.

Jens Henriksson

Jacob Egelev

Okay, great. Thank you.

Jacob Egelev

Operator

The next question comes from Gulnara Saitkulova from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Operator

Gulnara Saitkulova

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question. On the market shares in Sweden, previously you've mentioned that you were working to regain market share in Sweden with the objective of gradually bringing the front book performance in line with the back book.

Can you elaborate how is that progressing? Could you provide an update on the initiatives that you have implemented to support this effort?

Gulnara Saitkulova

Jens Henriksson

Well, thank you. That's a question I love.

Let me sort of go on top and take the overall perspective because we are the market leader in all our four home markets. First, let me say a few words of the Baltics or Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

We see continued growth, as Jon pointed out in his slide. During the quarter, volumes increased by SEK 4 billion.

If we go to the Swedish housing market, it has improved. It's a combined effect of new mortgage rules and a stronger domestic economic sentiment, and so have our mortgage volumes.

I don't need to remind you, but a few years back, we had low volumes. In April, in May, then we have sort of comparable results from Statistics Sweden, we had around 20% front book market share in our own channels.

Why? Well, the reason is we are available.

Last time I called up in Sweden, we had a waiting time of 14 seconds to get in touch with an advisor. I haven't called Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.

I will probably do that later on to see if they beat them. We are faster.

We have a strong business momentum. We can be better, but it's very cool that we are sort of seeing these advances.

If you look at the market, it's characterized by strong competition and low margins. The margins are on historically low level.

Our focus then is on availability, speed, and forward-leaning attitude. When you have these volumes, we will of course use this momentum to increase our customer share of wallet.

Everything in line with our plan, Swedbank 15/27. Strengthening customer interactions, growing volumes, and increasing efficiency, S, G, and I.

Jens Henriksson

Gulnara Saitkulova

Thank you. More broadly, for Swedish markets, what conditions would need to be in place for lending margins to stabilize and begin contributing positively to the net interest income?

What do you see as the key factors that would allow the current margin pressure to ease?

Gulnara Saitkulova

Jens Henriksson

Well, the first thing is, of course, if you look on history, you would expect that, but we don't see it. It's a tough competition.

There are a lot of providers there. Of course, we see that volumes are up.

We are not really to where we were before, but I think we're seeing that a continued interest and the new amortization rules have made it a bit more easy for customers to increase, while it also made it a bit more difficult for those who want to have mortgage more.

Jens Henriksson

Gulnara Saitkulova

Thank you.

Gulnara Saitkulova

Operator

The next question comes on the line of Martin Ekstedt from Handelsbanken Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Operator

Martin Ekstedt

Thank you. Just picking up on Jacob's question around capital repatriation.

Before the AML issues broke out, I recall you had a 75% dividend payout ratio target. Would it not perhaps be a fitting end to the story if you return to that now that you seem to have the headroom?

With both Entercard and PayEx earmarked for divestment, that might add perhaps 25 to 40 basis points further on CET1. That's my first question.

Thank you.

Martin Ekstedt

Jon Lidefelt

Thank you, Martin. As you know, the dividend policy, of course, ultimately up to the board of directors to set.

The reason for having the 60%-70%, it is balanced so that we can capture good growth on markets without having to be limited by the dividend policy. We think it's a balanced policy ensuring that we can focus on long-term shareholder value and have a balance between growth and giving back capital to the shareholders.

Jon Lidefelt

Martin Ekstedt

Okay, thank you. Then secondly, we saw some stage migrations impacting loan loss provisions attributed to, I think you wrote a few re-rated corporates.

Can you share with us a little bit more in which sectors these are concentrated in, if any? Do you see these as isolated events or early signals of something in some market or another?

Thanks.

Martin Ekstedt

Jon Lidefelt

Yes. Thank you.

I think first of all, if you look at the slides that I showed, there are a couple of these bars that you need to look together. Macro and post-model, they need to look at together.

Then you also need to look at the rating and stage migration together with individually assessed bar that is reducing because there are movements between this. Having said that, if you add those together, you'll see that it's around SEK 260, SEK 270 in provisions.

It is related to individual customers in C&I and Baltic Banking mainly. A few customers, no particular sector, no particular trends.

It's nothing that I'm worried about or anything that concerns us. We have these movements up or down from time to time when you have lending.

Now it's also, as I said in the speech, impacted the macro change sort of has also an impact on the movement or the amount when you move between stages.

Jon Lidefelt

Martin Ekstedt

Okay. Thank you for that.

Martin Ekstedt

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Andreas Håkansson from Nordea Markets. Please go ahead.

Operator

Andreas Håkansson

Good morning. Well, I normally make fun of analysts congratulating management, but I think juggling with all the U.S.

investigations now, I think congratulations are in order, actually. To my questions, first of all, on the net interest income, we were a little bit above, and I was surprised how much funding you did in the quarter.

So first part of the NII question is that do you feel that you're now pre-funded basically the whole year, given that you grew both your deposits and your cover bonds quite significantly? Relating to the NII as well, is the negative impact we saw in the second quarter very much driven by the rise in STIBOR that drove up your cover bond funding cost in the quarter, which wasn't then offset by higher mortgage margins.

Since STIBOR has now come back again, was that a temporary impact in Q2, and which means that we are now coming to Q3, the NII should start to behave more normally? That is my first question.

Andreas Håkansson

Jon Lidefelt

Thank you, Andreas. You're right that we are front-loaded in our funding.

We have done closer to 2/3 or something of our yearly funding. It has been volatile markets, and we have taken the advantage to go out on days where the situations have been good so that we could sit still if things get volatile on other days and weeks.

That has been approach we've had throughout the year. Yes, we are front-loaded.

We have taken 80 out of the 130, basically, that was our funding plan for this year. The other part when it comes to the NII, I would say two things.

We have grown a lot in the quarter. You don't see the full NII effect of the volume that comes into this quarter.

They can come during the quarter, first, next quarter, you would see the full quarterly NII effect of the volume growth this quarter. The other is what you also touched upon.

We have an earlier reaction on our funding costs than what we benefit on our asset side. Wholesale funding reacts earlier, and then it takes three months in Sweden and six in the Baltics for it to fully roll through on the asset side.

You have a bit of timing effects when rates go up opposite what you saw when rates went down, then you had the opposite that we—

Jon Lidefelt

Andreas Håkansson

Yes. Thanks.

Shouldn't that actually be even a bigger positive effect in Q3 given that STIBOR seems come down, your funding cost should have normalized down, but the margin increases you did on your mortgages, I think you hiked by 15, then you cut by 10, you keep some of the margin expansion. Shouldn't that actually be a double positive?

Andreas Håkansson

Jon Lidefelt

I don't want to go in and forecast in the NII in that sense, I'll try to give you the mechanics as a note.

Jon Lidefelt

Andreas Håkansson

Yes, fair enough.

Andreas Håkansson

Jon Lidefelt

You're right that the increased list prices of mortgage, they will throw through during three months. In that sense, you're right.

Otherwise, you'll have to do the assumptions. I will not speculate on.

Jon Lidefelt

Andreas Håkansson

No, fair enough. My second question is, we've seen monthly data that all of a sudden you start to have good mortgage growth again.

And when I look at your net inflow in Swedish mutual funds, it's the highest level I've seen for I don't know how long, and it's SEK 22.5 billion. When you settled with the DOJ, I remember I was a bit disappointed that you didn't want to commit to reduce headcount, but you said that you rather wanted to steer staff over to service your clients better.

Are we now actually starting to see a positive effect from that, or is that too early to say?

Andreas Håkansson

Jens Henriksson

Well, I would say it's too early to say because you have to remember that the inflows of Robur consists of many things. There are institutional flows, there are premium pension flows that are sold through our own channels.

We can be better within the bank to capture even more sold through our own channels. The mortgage growth gives us this possibility.

Of course, when people have their mortgage with us, we can do more business, we can talk with them more, and we have a strong business momentum. Even though the number of people that have been working with sort of the historical shortcoming and investigations into that, of course, it means that less management attention and more focus ahead.

Jens Henriksson

Andreas Håkansson

Okay. Thanks very much.

Andreas Håkansson

Operator

The next question comes from Sofie Peterzéns from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Operator

Sofie Peterzéns

Yeah. Hi, here is Sofie from Goldman Sachs.

Just on the fine, Danske, when they got the fine from the U.S., they also had a corporate probation period for some time. Do you have any restrictions set by the U.S.

authorities post the settlement?

Sofie Peterzéns

Jens Henriksson

Nope.

Jens Henriksson

Sofie Peterzéns

Okay. I was wondering on the Baltic IRB models, is there any update on the potential impact, and have you changed your thought process since the Q1 earnings?

Sofie Peterzéns

Jon Lidefelt

Yeah. Hi, Sofie.

Well, I have no real updates. As you know, the IRB overhaul has taken longer for us and others than what we expected, and we don't fully know the timeline.

We have fairly good visibility that the final outcome when we're done with everything will be somewhat positive compared to where we are now. We don't really know the order of things to be approved, and as I've said before, even if we're positive on the final outcome, it might go a bit up and down as things get approved.

We will get back when we have something tangible. We are in the approval process with both ECB and with the Swedish FSA.

I have hopes that we will, during this year, be able to come back with more tangible results on a couple of the models. Let's see.

The timeline is not owned by us.

Jon Lidefelt

Sofie Peterzéns

That's very clear. Is there any update on the Swedish IRB models?

Sofie Peterzéns

Jon Lidefelt

It's the same. I have hopes for some progress, both on some Swedish and Baltic models.

The timeline has been prolonged, I'm cautious in speculating on when we can get the approvals.

Jon Lidefelt

Sofie Peterzéns

Okay. That's very clear.

Thank you.

Sofie Peterzéns

Operator

The next question comes from Riccardo Rovere from Mediobanca Securities. Please go ahead.

Operator

Riccardo Rovere

Thanks for taking my questions. I hope you can hear me well.

Just one, if I may. Your buffer is about 260 basis points, which technically 60 basis points above the mid of the range, 100 to 300 basis points.

Now that the AML case is gone, okay, you're going to be fined a relatively small amount. Do you think that the outlook out there is certain enough to eventually bring the 260 basis points closer to 200 basis points over the foreseeable future?

You think there is still too much uncertainty related to model approval and so on? Thank you.

Riccardo Rovere

Jens Henriksson

Well, hi. I'm sorry I don't have any new answer to compare to what I said before, that is that we target the middle of it, the capital buffer range, that is 200 basis points.

We have a dividend policy, as Jon talked about, to 60%-70%, and that capital release above this dividend policy continues to be a judgment call. As I also said that with all the U.S.

investigations behind us, the uncertainties have, of course, diminished. The final thing, I always say that we have no intention of holding more capital than necessary.

Jens Henriksson

Riccardo Rovere

Very clear. Thanks.

Riccardo Rovere

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Magnus Andersson from ABG Sundal Collier.

Please go ahead.

Operator

Magnus Andersson

Yes. Hi, good morning.

Sorry if I come back to this, just to be crystal clear on your Article 3 add on you made in the Baltics in Q1 there. I think you said, Jon, at the call back then that if you would do the same exercise for the corporate book, it would add some SEK 20 billion of risk-weighted assets.

I don't recall if that was kind of a reaction of what could happen or if it was just a hypothetical exercise. If it is another potential SEK 20 billion in the short term that you might get back eventually, is that something we should have in mind when thinking about your capitalization?

That's the first one.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

Yeah.

Jon Lidefelt

Magnus Andersson

Your buffer thinking.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

Thank you, Magnus. As I said, and that stands.

We are in the approval process with ECB, and as soon as we have some outcome, we will come back. You are right.

What I said, if we have to do the same with the corporate as we did with the retail portfolio, then it would mean SEK 20 billion additional RWA. The exact number will depend on the timing, but around there.

That stands.

Jon Lidefelt

Magnus Andersson

Okay. We should keep that in mind when looking at your buffer then.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

Yeah.

Jon Lidefelt

Magnus Andersson

For the short term at least, I guess.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

I won't speculate in the outcome since we are in the approval process.

Jon Lidefelt

Magnus Andersson

Yeah.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

If we would have to do the same, it would be SEK 20 billion.

Jon Lidefelt

Magnus Andersson

Yeah.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

For this portfolio. Yes.

Jon Lidefelt

Magnus Andersson

Okay. Thank you.

My second one is just a bit curious about your IT cost and IT expenditure and what we should expect going forward. I realize you're in the restructuring program, we also remember that you talked about elevated IT costs in 2024 and 2025, now when I look at it year-on-year in the first half, IT costs are up another 15% from the previous temporary elevated levels, around SEK 800 million and 8% year-on-year.

Is this additional cost increase, is it the restructuring driving this, or is there something else? If you can give us some color on that.

Magnus Andersson

Jon Lidefelt

I think if I start, for a couple of years back, we had extra investments. Now we are, apart from SEK 1.3 billion, we are in the normal mode where we steer the bank so that we, over time, can increase the profit because that is what's needed above the dividend for us to ensure that we can bring the shareholder return.

We need to balance both costs and income growth to get this together. Of course, IT, we are using IT, AI IT all over the place.

Of course that, I think, general will be a part that we need to focus more and more on in the future, and we will automate more and more. There might be differences between the lines over time.

If you look at SEK 1.3 billion, you can see the split between staff costs and other things for SEK 1.3 billion in the report. So far, it has very much been that we have taken a reserve for severance pay.

We have also started with other integration. Going forward, it will be more IT integration, where we merge systems and adjust them so that we can have one system instead of two.

That will be a bit elevated next year, but synergies will start to materialize, total costs should not, from that perspective, be elevated next year.

Jon Lidefelt

Jens Henriksson

Can I take the chance and say a few words about AI? I think it has to do with this, and that is that, as you know, we worked in machine learning and AI in the bank for a very long time, and that's something we will continue to do.

When we do that, we have a twofold focus. The first one is that we empower employees with the right AI tools and skills.

We say AI for all, opportunities for all. We've just, as I said in my call, that we just introduced a new AI solution.

The idea is that each and every employee should have it, and it should be quality, security, efficiency, and as I said, cost control. The idea is to have AI capabilities through a vendor-agnostic architecture.

That means that we can be agile, and we can adopt the tools we prefer and are willing to pay for. The second part we use AI is that we use it in specific cases where we see significant improvements, and we can get a return on our investments.

A few things we talked about is call summary, KYC processes, and software development. The key drivers here are the CFO and the CIO.

Jens Henriksson

Magnus Andersson

What kind of productivity improvements do you expect from this in terms of headcount development, for example, if you look three years out? Do you think we'll see a significant headcount reduction because of your implementation of AI?

Magnus Andersson

Jens Henriksson

Well, looking ahead three years in AI is extremely difficult. I expect that there will be less people working in the financial industry and in the bank.

That is what I see ahead. I see that each and every individual in the bank will have a great person working with them, and that is what I call the Oken.

Then I see fantastic opportunities to do more, both when it comes to the customers and processes and things like this. Remember that AI will cost money, of course, to use.

That's why it's so important that the CFO is the driver here, because we need to make sure that we understand how many tokens are used, what kind of models. If I ask simple questions, you should not go to the most expensive models and things like that.

We need to have an orchestrator and a thing like that. We are moving ahead, and it's a lot of fun, and I'm heavily involved.

I can speak for hours about this.

Jens Henriksson

Magnus Andersson

Yeah. Okay.

Thank you. Sounds exciting.

Magnus Andersson

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jacob Kruse from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Mr. Kruse, your line is open.

We cannot hear you. Maybe your line is open.

Operator

Jacob Kruse

Sorry. Can you hear me now?

Jacob Kruse

Jon Lidefelt

We can hear you, Jacob. We can hear you.

Jon Lidefelt

Jacob Kruse

Okay, great. Thank you.

I just wanted to follow up on the AI question just before. You are one of the banks that give pretty good disclosure around your IT costs, including cloud balances, et cetera.

I see you are not putting anything in for inference and tokens and these kind of things. Could you comment at all on how much of a spend that is within your IT cost at the moment, or where you see it going, especially in light of the cost with perhaps being less subsidized going forward?

Jacob Kruse

Jon Lidefelt

No, I can't give you the number of AI in here, but I think the key is, of course, AI, we have used it for a long time, as Jon is saying, and we're increasing the usage. I think the key is that the heavy investments in the AI development that we see in the world, it has to be paid by someone.

We need to make sure that we're not, one, building us into being stuck with certain suppliers. We need to be flexible here and be able to change models, as Jon said, both from the cost perspective, but also because we don't know which LLM model will be the best for certain things in one year's time.

The second is that we need to make sure that we actually measure the efficiency. We need to look at the efficiency from AI and the costs versus other types of automations, versus the savings in labor, manpower that we're having.

Then look at the totality from the efficiency perspective. That's what we are focusing on.

Jon Lidefelt

Jacob Kruse

Okay. Do you think you might start to disclose this as you go forward?

Jacob Kruse

Jon Lidefelt

I don't think so. We don't have the plans, I'm not sure it will be fully relevant and possible to fully separate out either, because it will be so integrated in everyone's daily work.

Who knows? I have no plans at this moment, if we change ourselves, we will let you know.

Jon Lidefelt

Jacob Kruse

Great. Thank you very much.

Jacob Kruse

Operator

Once again, to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. We have a follow-up question from Sofie Peterzéns from Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

Operator

Sofie Peterzéns

Yeah. Hi, here is Sofie from Goldman Sachs again.

Thanks a lot for taking my question. Just a quick follow-up.

On Entercard, the sale, you guide that the net interest income impact is around SEK 600 million. Could you also give guidance what the cost impact from setting the SEK 11 billion Entercard consumer book will be?

And also how we should think about the fee impact and maybe also, cost of risk, if that will have any impact. Thank you.

Sofie Peterzéns

Jon Lidefelt

Yeah. Thank you, Sofie.

If we start, we are in the sales process on this. We will come back when we have concluded it and let you know.

For you to be able to manage the NII, we have separately reported the full year 2025 NII effect on this portfolio. And when it's sold and moved out, that will go away.

The sales process is going fine, but I will not speculate in exact timing for when this will come out. When it comes to the cost of risk, what I've said before when we bought Entercard in the end of last year, that it will have an impact on Swedbank's credit provisions of around one to two basis points.

That stands. What you saw this quarter, the SEK 116 million, was mainly related to a model adjustment and for the portfolio that is up for sale.

You can also see that in the report. Going forward, expect one to two basis points on the Swedbank cost of risk.

When it comes to the savings, of course, when we sell it, we can reduce the costs, but that will come with a little bit of lag, and it's also included in the total restructuring that we're doing, where Entercard is included. Entercard, Swedbank Pay, and so forth, is included in this extra restructuring, SEK 1.3 billion, that eventually will lead to cost efficiency or a run rate of SEK 1 billion lower per year.

That is included in all this program.

Jon Lidefelt

Sofie Peterzéns

Okay. Just a similar question then for PayEx, it's around SEK 400 million cost saves.

Is that also already included in the SEK 1 billion cost guidance?

Sofie Peterzéns

Jon Lidefelt

No. PayEx is not included in the SEK 1.3 billion extra cost with the corresponding SEK 1 billion lower run rate later.

PayEx, it's outside of that. There we're selling a company, of course, we will get rid of both the costs and the income from PayEx when that deal is concluded.

I hope that we can partly invest some of that in something that will bring higher shareholder value. It's not included.

PayEx is not included in the restructuring program. It's a side thing that we're working with.

Jon Lidefelt

Sofie Peterzéns

Okay, that's very clear. Then maybe just a final question.

How do you think about M&A opportunities, both in the Nordics and outside of the Nordics?

Sofie Peterzéns

Jon Lidefelt

Well, the first thing is that we see a strong organic growth. That's the first thing to keep in mind.

Second thing is that we've done that with both Stabelo and Entercard. The third, we're always looking for opportunities as a part of my job.

If we see something interesting, we will act upon it. If we act, we will tell you.

Jon Lidefelt

Sofie Peterzéns

Okay. That's very clear.

Thank you so much.

Sofie Peterzéns

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Swedbank for any closing remarks.

Operator

Jens Henriksson

Thank you. I'll steal the word, Maria, if that's okay with you.

Thank you all for calling in, and, as always, ask difficult and challenging questions. It makes us better.

We now look forward to meeting a few of you and continue our dialogue. Otherwise, take care and enjoy the summer.

Thank you.