• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals confidence China will fulfill its promise to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end.
  • The USDA reports six major sales totaling over 1.9 million metric tons since late October, marking a significant resumption of trade.
  • Despite the progress, total 2025 exports to China are projected to fall 32% from 2024 levels, highlighting persistent market challenges.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s assessment that China is reaching the "correct cadence" to complete its promised U.S. soybean purchases points to a cautiously optimistic phase in a trade relationship that has been fraught with uncertainty for much of the year. The comments, delivered in recent days, follow a high-level meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on October 30, which resulted in a new agreement for China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025.

Since that announcement, activity has picked up substantially. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows six major sales to Chinese buyers totaling more than 1.9 million metric tons between October 30 and November 28. By mid-November, China had purchased at least 14 cargoes—its largest single buying spree since January—with eight ships scheduled to load at Gulf Coast terminals for December and January departures. "We want to trust what we've heard," said Todd Main, director of market development at the Illinois Soybean Association, capturing the wary optimism among farmers.

The recent flurry of deals was facilitated by a narrowing price gap between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, as rising prices in South America made American supplies more competitive, according to market analysts. However, a fundamental hurdle remains: a 10% Chinese tariff continues to make U.S. beans more expensive than Brazilian alternatives for most buyers. This structural disadvantage has fueled a dramatic shift in market share over recent years; Brazil now accounts for approximately 71% of China's soybean imports, a stark increase from just 2% three decades ago.

Even if China meets its 12-million-ton commitment, the total 2025 export volume to the country would only reach about 18.2 million metric tons when combined with earlier shipments. That figure represents a 32 percent decline from 2024 and would be the worst year for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018. The commitment, which also includes a pledge to buy at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, essentially maintains previous purchase conditions rather than expanding them, leaving some in the industry wanting more. StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman has publicly questioned the data, noting Chinese processors have "zero financial incentive" to buy U.S. supply with cheaper South American options available.

The administration's focus on soybeans in negotiations underscores the commodity's political and economic weight, representing about 20% of U.S. cash crop receipts. Bessent's positive cadence comment suggests officials believe the purchase timeline is on track, but the path beyond 2025 is less clear. Shrinking South American supplies may open a brief window for U.S. exports early next year, but regaining lost market share in the face of Brazil's dominance and ongoing tariff walls remains a formidable long-term challenge for American farmers.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the annual purchase commitment for years 2026-2028. The agreement is for at least 25 million metric tons per year, not a total of 25 million metric tons across the period.