• China has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans after a prolonged trade war pause, but current volumes lag far behind commitments under the Trump trade agreement.
  • Between October 30 and November 28, 2025, China bought approximately 1.9 million metric tons, well short of the 12 million tons it pledged to purchase by year-end 2025, now extended to February 2026.
  • The Trump administration expects 25 million tons annually over three years and has announced $12 billion in aid for farmers hit by the trade war, as 2025 tracks to be the worst year for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018.

China’s return to the U.S. soybean market marks a tentative step toward normalizing trade relations after months of minimal activity, but the pace of buying has left industry observers questioning whether Beijing will fulfill its promised commitments. According to people familiar with the matter, the purchases resumed in late October, with China importing about 1.9 million metric tons through late November, according to recent data. This follows a period from September to October 2025 when China imported no U.S. soybeans for the first time since November 2018, highlighting the severe impact of retaliatory trade measures.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stated that China remains on track to meet the target of 12 million metric tons by February 2026, but the gap between actual and pledged volumes is stark. Under the trade agreement framework, China reportedly committed to this purchase level, though it has not officially confirmed these commitments. The Trump administration has also outlined expectations for China to purchase 25 million metric tons annually over the subsequent three years, aiming to boost U.S. agricultural exports significantly. Efforts to reach Chinese trade officials for comment on the shortfall were unsuccessful, but sources indicate ongoing negotiations to address the discrepancy.

Market dynamics have played a role in the resumed purchases, with narrowing price gaps between U.S. soybeans and alternative suppliers making American crops more attractive to Chinese importers. This price competitiveness has helped spur some activity, but it hasn’t been enough to close the gap. From January through August 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled only 218 million bushels, compared to 985 million bushels during the same period in 2024. Even with the recent uptick, 2025 is tracking to be the worst year for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018, with annual exports expected to reach only 18.2 million metric tons—a 32 percent decline from 2024's 26.8 million metric tons.

For U.S. farmers, the situation remains precarious. The Trump administration’s $12 billion aid package provides some financial relief, but the uncertainty over future sales complicates planning for next season’s operations. “We’re seeing a glimmer of hope with these purchases, but it’s not enough to offset the losses,” said one agricultural economist, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of trade talks. Exporters, too, are cautiously optimistic, noting that any resumption is better than the complete halt earlier this year, but they emphasize the need for sustained buying to rebuild market confidence.

The extension of the purchase deadline from December 2025 to February 2026 suggests that fulfilling the original timeline was unrealistic, reflecting the complexities of restarting trade flows after such a disruptive pause. If China follows through on the extended commitments and the three-year annual purchases, the U.S. soybean market could recover substantially from current depressed levels. However, success hinges on sustained Chinese purchasing behavior and stability in the broader U.S.-China trade relationship, which remains fraught with geopolitical tensions. As negotiations continue, stakeholders are watching closely for signs of whether this resumption is a temporary blip or the start of a more robust recovery.