• Only 14 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to Kpler, far below the pre-war average of about 120 per day.
  • Of those, 11 used the Iranian-approved route, while none used the traditional central passage, indicating no return to normal.
  • The modest uptick does not signal normalization, keeping pressure on global oil supplies.

A Trickle, Not a Flow

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil consumption, remains largely idle. Data from Kpler shows just 14 ships traversed the waterway on Tuesday, a fraction of the typical daily traffic of around 120 vessels before regional tensions escalated. This comes despite declarations from Washington that the strait is "open" for business.

According to shipping data and people familiar with the matter, the majority of the vessels that did transit used the Iranian-approved route, while the traditional central passage remained empty. The lack of activity underscores the persistent security concerns that have paralyzed one of the world's most vital energy arteries.

Market Impact and Outlook

While the Tuesday count represents a slight uptick from recent multi-week lows, analysts caution that this is not a return to stability. "The modest increase in traffic is essentially noise," said a senior shipping analyst. "We're still far from the levels needed to reassure oil markets."

The depressed traffic has contributed to elevated oil prices amid fears of supply disruptions. The continued avoidance of the central passage, in particular, signals that shippers remain wary of potential attacks or harassment.

We reached out to Kpler for additional comment but did not receive an immediate response. The situation remains fluid, with traders and insurers closely monitoring any signs of a sustained reopening.

Fragile Prospects

Efforts to restore confidence in the waterway have so far yielded little. The lack of normalization in Hormuz traffic is a stark reminder that geopolitical risks remain elevated, and the global oil market continues to price in a substantial risk premium. Without a significant de-escalation, the strait may remain a bottleneck, keeping supply expectations tight.

As one veteran oil trader put it, "The ships are not coming back yet, and that says everything."