• Nearly all merchant ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz continue using Iran's designated route, with none taking the U.S.-backed southern corridor.
  • Transit volumes remain low, while Iran has warned it could target unauthorized vessels and reportedly redirected ships attempting to use the southern route.
  • Tankers waiting at Iran's Kharg Island export terminal have increased, suggesting potential congestion.

Iran's Route Dominates

Nearly all merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz continue to use Iran's designated corridor, according to maritime intelligence firms. None have taken the U.S.-backed southern route, which was promoted as a safer alternative amid heightened tensions. Iran has warned it may target vessels using unauthorized routes and has reportedly redirected ships attempting to utilize the southern corridor.

Transit volumes remain well below pre-crisis levels, though a fragile pickup has been observed on some days as geopolitical negotiations continue. Tankers waiting at Iran's Kharg Island export terminal have risen, indicating a back-up in loadings and potential congestion.

Geopolitical Implications

The situation highlights the ongoing struggle for control over one of the world's most vital energy chokepoints. Iran's assertiveness in enforcing its corridor reflects its leverage in the region, while the U.S.-backed alternative has failed to gain traction. Analysts say the standoff is likely to persist until a broader diplomatic agreement is reached.

Global shipping firms and oil traders are closely monitoring the situation, as any disruption could impact crude and refined product prices, spreads, and insurance costs. Prolonged limitations could constrain supply to Asia and other regions.

For now, market participants are hedging against volatility through diversified routing, extra insurance, and alternative supply sources. A durable settlement or formal protocol for open navigation could restore more normal traffic levels, but that remains elusive.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the increase in tanker wait times. It has been updated to reflect more accurate data.