• Indirect talks between Iran and the United States are scheduled for Friday, with Iran pushing for a bilateral, nuclear-only format and a venue change to Oman, despite US resistance to narrowing the agenda.
  • Recent military incidents, including Iranian vessels attempting to intercept a US-linked oil tanker and a US fighter jet downing an Iranian drone, have heightened tensions just days before the planned negotiations.
  • Internal Iranian political dynamics, with key decisions being made by figures like Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Ali Larijani rather than President Masoud Pezeshkian, add complexity to Iran's negotiating stance.

Efforts to restart nuclear diplomacy between Iran and the United States have hit a snag as the two sides prepare for indirect talks on Friday, February 7, 2026. According to people familiar with the matter, Iran is demanding significant changes to the originally planned multilateral meeting, which was to include regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates in Istanbul. Instead, Tehran is pressing for a bilateral, nuclear-only negotiation format exclusively with Washington, aiming to exclude discussions on its missile capabilities and support for armed groups across the Middle East.

A regional source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks, noted that Iran's push for this narrower framework "has so far been a formula the United States has rejected." The outcome hinges on whether Washington will accommodate these demands, with the venue still uncertain—both Oman and Turkey are reportedly "on the table" as of early February. US officials have expressed hesitation about returning to Oman, viewing previous rounds there as unsuccessful, but White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt confirmed that talks remain scheduled despite recent escalations.

Military tensions flared just days before the planned negotiations, with two significant incidents in early February. Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels armed with heavy machine guns attempted to intercept the US-linked oil tanker Stena Imperative in the Strait of Hormuz, ordering it to stop before it escaped under escort by a US warship. Separately, a US F-35 fighter jet intercepted an Iranian Shahed-139 drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. These encounters underscore the fragile security environment, yet diplomatic channels appear to remain open, according to sources briefed on the preparations.

Behind the scenes, internal Iranian political dynamics are complicating Tehran's position. Regional sources indicate that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, are effectively acting as primary decision-makers rather than President Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian sought approval from senior regime figures for Araghchi's negotiating authority but reportedly did not receive "a green light." Adding to the uncertainty, Ali Bagheri Kani, a hardline figure from former President Raisi's administration, has been appointed as Larijani's deputy and may limit flexibility in negotiations. One source paraphrased a senior Iranian official as saying, "Without a deal that addresses our nuclear rights, we risk further isolation," though attempts to reach Araghchi for comment were unsuccessful.

The negotiating framework disagreement remains a fundamental gap: Iran wants to limit talks to uranium enrichment levels, while the US insists on comprehensively addressing Iran's nuclear program, missile capabilities, and regional activities. This stalemate reflects broader tensions between reformist and hardline factions in Iran, with figures like Ali Shamkhani, a former council secretary and current adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei, opposing proposals to transfer enriched uranium to Russia and instead demanding compensation for any reduction in enrichment levels. As Friday approaches, the prospects for a successful round are highly uncertain, with analysts watching closely for any shifts in stance from either side.