• Israel and key Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have privately urged President Trump to refrain from immediate military action against Iran, warning that a strike could destabilize oil markets and trigger a wider conflict.
  • Trump has sent mixed signals, keeping military options open while emphasizing sanctions and cyberattacks to pressure Iran's regime, as U.S. officials say any decision hinges on Iran's next moves amid ongoing protests and crackdowns.
  • The push for restraint comes amid heightened risks, with Iran threatening retaliation against U.S. assets in the Gulf and regional leaders fearing blowback unrest, complicating Trump's goals for economic integration in the Middle East.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and officials from Arab states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt, have relayed urgent messages to the Trump administration in recent days, calling for a delay in any potential military strike on Iran. According to people familiar with the matter, these allies argue that the regime in Tehran is not yet sufficiently weakened by ongoing protests and that an attack could unify Iranians, destabilize oil markets, spark regional unrest, or provoke Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in the region. This coordinated push underscores the delicate balancing act facing Washington as it navigates escalating tensions.

President Trump has issued mixed signals in response, warning of "very strong action" if Iran hangs protesters charged with moharebeh ("waging war against God") amid a crackdown involving an internet blackout and substantial deaths. However, he has also kept military options open while prioritizing regime destabilization through sanctions, cyberattacks, or support for protesters, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. One senior administration official noted, "Any decision will depend on Iran's next actions, as we prepare for possible retaliation against U.S. or Israeli targets in the region." Efforts to reach the White House for further comment were not immediately successful.

Arab states like Saudi Arabia have specifically warned that a U.S. strike could rattle global oil prices due to potential disruptions, given Iran's threats to target bases in Gulf countries and regional shipping lanes. This economic concern adds a layer of complexity to Trump's National Security Strategy, which emphasizes shifting Middle East dynamics toward economic ties in areas like AI, rare-earth minerals, nuclear energy, and defense tech. Yet, the ongoing Iran tensions and Israel's actions—such as its recent Qatar strike and daily Hezbollah strikes violating a November 2024 truce—hinder this pivot, according to analysts. A Gulf diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said, "We fear domestic unrest mirroring Iran's, and we're urging restraint to avoid a conflagration."

In the background, Iran's economy continues to collapse under sanctions and isolation, with protests stemming partly from this financial pressure. Trump has pushed for tougher measures to exacerbate internal pressure without immediate strikes, but the situation remains volatile. Tehran has notified Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, and others of retaliatory strikes on U.S. assets if attacked, while blaming Trump and Israel for protests at the UN. Meanwhile, regional pacts like the U.S.-brokered Israel-Syria intelligence sharing agreement in December 2025 show Trump's mediation role, but Israel's ongoing operations sustain a reliance on hard power that complicates diplomatic efforts.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook suggests Trump may pursue non-kinetic destabilization tactics, such as enhanced sanctions or cyber operations, pending Iran's response to protester killings. Strikes loom if nuclear or missile advances continue, but allies are pushing for a delay until the regime nears collapse. In the long term, a potential Iran regime ouster could stabilize the region, offering opportunities for better Israel-Arab ties and reduced terrorism, but risks of a wider war remain high. Experts, including those from the Soufan Center, predict a 2026 conflagration risk unless protests succeed, highlighting the urgency of the current diplomatic maneuvers. As one Middle East analyst put it, "The stakes are immense, and every move now could tip the balance toward peace or prolonged conflict."