• U.S. officials advise President Trump that large-scale military strikes against Iran would likely fail to collapse the regime and could trigger wider regional conflict.
  • Smaller, targeted options like airstrikes on leadership or cyberattacks might boost protester morale but won't halt Tehran's ongoing crackdown.
  • Economic collapse from Iran's staggering inflation and fragile financial system is viewed as a non-military path to weaken the regime, with global oil markets at risk from escalation.

President Trump has been warned by U.S. officials that a major attack on Iran would probably not topple the Islamic Republic and could spark a broader regional war, according to people familiar with the matter. The advice comes as Trump monitors nationwide protests in Iran, now in their 17th day, which have been fueled by inflation and government policies, with regime crackdowns killing up to 2,000 demonstrators per rights groups.

Trump has not made a final decision, but recent briefings have highlighted limited military options such as targeted airstrikes on leadership, bunkers, or communications—avoiding any ground invasion—and potential cyberattacks. "A large buildup isn't needed," one official said, noting that assets like carriers have left the region. The president has canceled meetings with Iranian officials and vowed that regime "killers and abusers" will "pay a big price," with "help on the way" for protesters, though no major troop movements are planned.

Efforts to restructure U.S. strategy have hit a snag, as regional allies including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have urged restraint, warning that Iran could retaliate against U.S. bases, particularly in Qatar. Without a deal to de-escalate, tensions could spiral, affecting Iranian civilians and regional stability. A U.S. senator rejected reports that Trump had ruled out strikes, amid European warnings of possible action within 24 hours and U.S. personnel withdrawals from bases.

Iran's staggering inflation and fragile financial system are key drivers of the protests, with U.S. officials eyeing economic collapse as a non-military path to weaken the regime without resorting to strikes. No direct company involvement has been reported, but global oil markets face risks from any escalation, given Iran's role as a major producer amid prior U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites. Protests demand an end to clerical rule, repressed via internet blackouts and killings, with nearly 500 confirmed by January 11 per monitors.

Short-term, possible swift airstrikes or cyberattacks are imminent, with the U.S. ready from Gulf bases or global missions, but no ground troops are expected. Trump is monitoring for de-escalation, such as paused protester killings. Long-term, regime collapse via economics is preferred over war, though escalation risks regional conflict; experts note strikes can't achieve full regime change without invasion, which Trump rejects. Iran prepares retaliation while remaining open to diplomacy, according to sources.

In related developments, the U.S. expanded anti-ISIS Operation Hawkeye in Syria on January 10, 2026, striking 35 targets. Personnel evacuations from Middle East bases and ally diplomat pulls signal high tension. Trump's prior Venezuela operation drew congressional limits, mirroring current debates over Iran, with even GOP allies favoring sanctions over troop deployments. Attempts to reach the White House for further comment were unsuccessful as of press time.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the number of days of protests; they are in their 17th day, not 18th.