• Cantor Fitzgerald boosts Tesla price target by 44% to $510, maintaining bullish outlook
  • Significant capital expenditure planned with ~$9.2B for FY25 and ~$12B for FY26
  • Production timelines confirmed for Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 in FY26, Optimus targeted for next year

Cantor Fitzgerald has significantly raised its price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $510 from $355, representing one of the more optimistic Wall Street views on the electric vehicle maker as the firm sees substantial value in Tesla's expanding product portfolio beyond traditional automotive.

The upward revision comes as Tesla prepares for what analysts describe as its "most aggressive capital expenditure cycle" in recent years. According to people familiar with the matter, the company has signaled to investors that it will ramp spending to approximately $9.2 billion in fiscal 2025 before increasing to around $12 billion in fiscal 2026. This substantial outlay reflects the simultaneous scaling of multiple new business lines.

"We remain bullish on Tesla's medium- to long-term prospects," said Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard in a note to clients reviewed by this publication. Sheppard highlighted that production timelines for the Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 remain on track for fiscal year 2026, with Optimus robot production targeted to begin next year.

The raised target suggests growing confidence among some analysts that Tesla's investments in autonomous driving, energy storage, and robotics will begin yielding meaningful returns. While Tesla's core automotive business has faced margin pressure from intense price competition, the firm sees upside potential from what it calls Tesla's "emerging technology stack" - specifically Full Self-Driving capabilities, the planned Robotaxi network, heavy-duty Semis, and Optimus humanoid robots.

Tesla's recent quarterly results highlighted this dichotomy - record revenue supported by global deliveries approaching 500,000 vehicles in the third quarter, but declining earnings as aggressive price cuts and rising costs squeezed margins. The company did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the price target increase.

Efforts to diversify beyond automotive appear to be gaining traction with institutional investors, who see the energy storage business as particularly promising given growing global demand for grid-scale battery solutions. The Megapack 3 production expansion signals Tesla's commitment to capturing more of this high-growth market.

Still, the path forward carries execution risk. The simultaneous scaling of multiple complex manufacturing operations while maintaining current automotive production will test Tesla's operational capabilities. Regulatory hurdles for autonomous vehicles and robotics also remain significant, though analysts note that Tesla's vertically integrated approach may provide advantages as these markets develop.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the production timeline for Optimus. Production is targeted to begin next year, not in fiscal 2026.