Operator
Hello everyone, and welcome to today's AkzoNobel Q4 and full-year results call. My name is Seb, and I'll be the operator for your call today.
If you'd like to ask a question at the Q&A session, please press *1 on your telephone keypad, and if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue, please press *2. I will now hand you over to Jan-Willem Enhus, Head of Investor Relations, to begin the call.
Please go ahead when you're ready.
Jan-Willem Enhus
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to AkzoNobel's investor update for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. I'm Jan-Willem Enhus, Head of Investor Relations.
Today, our CEO, Greg Poux-Guillaume, and CFO, Maarten de Vries, will take you through our results. We'll refer to the presentation which you can follow by webcast or download from our website at akzonobel.com.
A replay of the webcast will also be made available following the event. There will be a Q&A session after the presentation.
For additional information, please contact our Investor Relations team. Before we start, a reminder of our forward-looking statements disclaimer on slide two.
Please note this also applies to the conference call and answers to your questions. I will now hand over to Greg, who will start on slide three of the presentation.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thanks, Jan-Willem. Good morning to everyone on the call.
In 2025, we made substantive strides towards a stronger AkzoNobel. In tepid markets, our progress was rooted in price discipline and the relentless execution of our efficiency programs, resulting in full-year adjusted EBITDA of €1,444 million.
Adjusted for forex translation and our Indian divestment, this is within 1% of our initial constant currency guidance of 1,550 given at the beginning of the year. Profitability is at 14.2%, which is 40 basis points up versus last year.
In Q4, volumes were down 2% year-on-year with price/mix up 1%. Our adjusted EBITDA came in at €309 million, or €343 million excluding forex translation and the Indian divestment.
This is 7% higher than last year on a comparable basis and corresponds to a 13% margin, up 70 basis points year-on-year. Operationally, we achieved net OpEx savings of €98 million year-to-date, €28 million ahead of plan.
Free cash flow came in materially higher at €606 million on efficient working capital management, and we reduced leverage to 2 times, bringing it in line with our mid-term ambitions. Overall, we delivered a banner year in operational execution alongside two major portfolio moves: a value-crystallizing divestment in India, and our proposed merger with Axalta, which will reduce costs, boost innovation, and accelerate growth.
Let's now turn to slide four. Q4 volumes were down 2% year-on-year, with mixed performance between our segments.
Overall, Deco volumes were slightly down at -1%. Europe, Middle East, and Africa was flat, with growth in the UK and a recovery in Turkey, but continued weakness in France.
Looking ahead, we expect 2026 to be stable, with a European recovery further out. Latin America declined mid-single digits, with Argentina doing well, but Brazil impacted by the BASF disposal.
As the Suvinil business was for sale, was bought by Sherwin, but there was a moment of lack of leadership of that business, which disrupted the Brazilian market in the middle of the year. As Sherwin closed the deal and started running the business, this recovered and Q4 was a good quarter for us.
Growth will resume in 2026 as Brazil returns to normal trading conditions, which Brazil has already returned to normal trading conditions, so far, good. China delivered low-single-digit growth, with our business continuing to outperform in a weak market.
We expect this to continue in 2026 and for the Chinese market to finally rebound in 2027. South East Asia remained mixed, with softer demand in Indonesia more than offset by growth in Vietnam, where momentum is anticipated to remain solid throughout 2026.
Let's turn to Coatings now. In Coatings, volumes declined 3% in Q4, primarily due to market pullback in most of our segments in North America.
Powder remained impacted by lower architectural demand, although Asia continued its strong momentum. Stabilization in North America is expected in the second half of 2026.
Marine and Protective delivered a slower quarter, with growth in Yacht, but lower Marine on tougher comps. Market share in drydocking will underpin volumes in 2026—market share gains, clearly, in drydocking for 2026.
Automotive and Specialty improved sequentially to flat volumes overall. Aerospace outperformed, while refinish in North America remained at trough.
Going forward, low-single-digit growth will be driven by a strong Aerospace with a very strong order book and stabilization in refinish in the second half of 2026. Industrial Coatings was down mid-single digits.
Coil and Wood were in line with market. Our packaging business faces a temporary pullback due to an industry technology shift and delayed approvals of our product.
We are planning to lose market share in 2026 because of this, but we will rebound and recover market share in 2027 on new awards. We're convinced we have best-in-class technology, it's a temporary setback, but we will see a market share erosion in '26 before rebounding in '27 in packaging.
On balance, we expect full-year volumes to be broadly flat in 2026. After a Q1 with similar conditions to Q4 of last year, we anticipate an improving market trajectory in the second half of the year, particularly in North America.
Turning to slide five. We closed the sale of AkzoNobel India Limited at an attractive 25 times EBITDA multiple, generating approximately €900 million of proceeds, which showcases that our active portfolio management creates exceptional value.
We retained full ownership of our powder business in India by buying out the minorities, and also secured a recurring royalty stream from the liquid coatings assets we divested to JSW. We continue our portfolio review in Asia, as per our strategy to focus on leadership positions and to monetize assets that are significantly more valuable to other people than us, there'll be more disposals in 2026 in Asia.
All actions under our SG&A efficiency program were completed by mid-2025. We now expect around €200 million of gross cost savings based on the elimination of 2,900 functional positions.
This is €80 million above our initial target, while also delivering a leaner and more focused operating model. Meanwhile, our industrial excellence program continues to gather pace.
We've closed 12 sites to date in the last two years since the start of the program, all without disruption to the business and while improving service levels. All actions under the industrial program are expected to be completed by end of 2026.
We've got at least six more closures planned in 2026, and we're making good progress on this. In short, our programs are driving a leaner cost base, better return on capital, and a more focused, agile organization.
The impact of these programs is detailed on page six. Page six.
Two years into our efficiency journey, I thought it'd be helpful to present an overview of the phasing and the benefits of our two programs, very much like we did last year. Our SG&A program was fully executed in less than a year.
We've achieved €145 million in savings to date, with at least €50 million carryover in 2026, which will offset annual inflation alongside other productivity measures. In total, the program will deliver €200 million of gross cost savings, €80 million above the original plan, as I mentioned, with only €50 million higher than originally envisaged cost.
So €80 million more value, only €50 million more cost. All of this completed in less than a year, 2,900 positions, a lot of them in Europe, you can see that we executed and we executed decisively.
Our industrial transformation program remains fully on track and will be completed at the end of 2026. The focus remains on footprint optimization, modernization of anchor sites, and supply chain consolidation.
We expect a benefit of €90 million in 2026 alongside a slightly higher restructuring cost and corresponding cash outflow. With a €110 million of carryover benefit in 2027, the program is set to deliver total gross savings of €300 million.
If you take the two programs together, that's half a billion euros of cost takeout, demonstrating that our self-help is working and delivering a leaner organization with meaningful operating leverage on any volume recovery. Moving to slide seven.
Slide seven is really a summary because the benefits of our efficiency programs, they're substantial, but sometimes they're obscured by the significant negative forex translation of the past three years, which does not impact profitability, but does make the reported numbers harder to read. We've tried in this table to isolate the effects, with profitability gains in both Deco and Coatings, and a more efficient use of capital as highlighted by our working capital improvement.
We've made steady progress over the past three years, with adjusted EBITDA up 40%, or almost half a billion euros, on a comparable basis to 2022. Our progress has been built on price discipline, a leaner organization with greatly improved service levels.
This, in conjunction with product innovation, will allow us to capture more than our share of commercial opportunities, even in softer markets. The actions already in place will pave our way to achieving our mid-term targets and more.
I'll now hand over to Maarten to discuss our Q4 performance on slide eight. Maarten?
Maarten de Vries
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everybody. At the group level, organic sales declined by 1%, with volumes down 2% and a positive price/mix effect of 1%.
The divestment of India had a negative 1% impact on revenue for both Deco and Coatings. FX translation further reduced revenue by 6%, resulting in a reported revenue decline of 9%.
In Deco, volumes decreased by 1%, primarily driven by LatAm. While positive pricing in EMEA and LatAm was offset by a negative mix, organic sales for Deco were down by 1%.
In Coatings, volumes were down 3%, reflecting ongoing weakness in North America. Group adjusted EBITDA was €309 million, or €343 million at constant currencies and adjusted for the India divestment.
The EBITDA margin improved to 13%, up 70 bps compared to prior year. This improvement was due to margin expansion of 240 bps in Deco, supported by structural cost savings.
Improvements in Coatings profitability continue to be muted by negative mix, particularly from weaker North America. We delivered another strong quarter of free cash flow totaling €362 million.
For the full year, free cash flow reached €606 million, primarily driven by significant improvements in our working capital position. At year-end, trade working capital was 14.7%, a full percentage point below the previous year and within the target range.
Importantly, we achieved this while driving our industrial transformation, which requires inventory build-up to support volume redistribution. Return on investment also improved to 13.5%, up from 13.3% last year.
Finally, strong cash flow generation together with the proceeds from the India divestment enabled us to reduce net debt to below €3 billion and our leverage ratio to 2x, in line with our plan. Turning now to our '26 outlook.
Looking ahead, based on current market visibility, we don't anticipate a material recovery across our end markets in 2026. A weak first half is expected, with the second half helped by easier comparisons.
We will remain firmly focused on the implementation of our self-help programs and maintaining strict cost discipline. In 2026, we aim to increase our full-year adjusted EBITDA by at least €100 million on a comparable basis, driven by costs rather than volume.
Any volume recovery will be a plus. On a reported basis, including a €40 million scope adjustment for the India divestment and an expected further €35 million of FX translation impact, this should translate to a reported adjusted EBITDA at or above €1.47 billion.
The €100 million step-up is driven by what we control, with the industrial program contributing €90 million of savings. Carryover of the SG&A program will offset inflation combined with productivity, as outlined in the overview table on slide six.
This provides a solid earnings baseline, with any improvement in market conditions translating into potential upside. The first quarter is expected to look a lot like the fourth quarter: soft volume trends continuing, some efficiency uplift, and a negative FX impact of around €30 million.
With that, back to Greg for the wrap-up.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thank you. Moving to slide 11.
On November 18, together with Axalta, we announced a transformative step for both companies, a merger of equals to shape the future of our industry. This compelling combination builds a more resilient coatings leader with enhanced margins and superior cash generation.
We see at least $600 million of cost synergies, and we have the experienced leadership team to execute them with discipline and convert them into sustainable margin with robust cash flow. On top of this, we expect revenue synergies to boost growth by 100 to 200 basis points.
We'll share more details on this in the coming months ahead of the shareholder vote. By joining forces, we will not only generate significant synergies, but will also create a company that will bring the best of both worlds to our customers, shareholders, and employees.
Closing is expected late in 2026 or early in 2027. Preparation for the proposed merger are ongoing, but will not deter or distract us from our core execution agenda as we deliver against our 2026 outlook.
I'll now hand over to Jan-Willem to close with information about upcoming events, and then we'll start the Q&A. Jan-Willem?
Jan-Willem Enhus
Thank you, Greg. Before we start the Q&A session, I would like to draw your attention to the upcoming events shown on slide 12.
We will publish our annual report on February 24. This concludes the formal presentation, and we'll be happy to address your questions.
Please state your name and company when asking a question, and limit the number of questions to two per person so others can participate. Operator, please start the Q&A session.
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad.
Our first one is from Thomas Wrigglesworth from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thomas Wrigglesworth
Thanks for the presentation, Greg and Maarten. Two questions if I may.
First question, on the €100 million EBITDA constant currency growth, could you just help us understand the drivers of that? You've obviously talked to flat volumes, but I assume positive mix.
There should be a net pricing benefit in there, and then there's also cost savings. Just trying to figure out the moving parts, noting that the net pricing environment's relatively positive.
That's my first question. Second question if I may, you touched on the deal there with Axalta.
Any further updates on timelines or synergy plans, have you guys been able to at least better understand the potential of the merger since the initial announcement?
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thank you, Thomas. I'll start with the Axalta question.
The focus right now is to hit the ground running in terms of the critical path, and the critical path of any merger like the one that we're planning with Axalta is the regulatory approvals. We've made really good progress, we're working well together.
By the end of next week, the main regulatory filings are in Europe and in the US, and the one that's the most time-consuming is Europe, a very heavy, detailed document upfront and a process that's a bit longer. We wanted to make sure that we got it out very quickly, and by the end of next week, we'll have completed all the main filings, including Europe.
We're tracking well from that perspective. In parallel, we're doing work on detailing the synergy plans and also substantiating the revenue synergies that we want to talk about ahead of the shareholder vote.
All going well, nothing to report beyond the fact that we're hitting our milestones and making good progress, with still the aim to close by the end of 2026. In terms of the €100 million step-up on a comparable basis in EBITDA, it's essentially based on self-help.
It's mostly driven by costs. We're not assuming volume growth, we're assuming volumes to be flat.
It's a crapshoot on volumes. There's a lot of macro uncertainty.
We saw some of the reactions this morning from some of you guys that felt this might be a little bit conservative, but there's really not a whole lot to gain by getting ahead of ourselves on volumes at this point. Then I think your main question is the pricing question, but it's really a margin expansion question.
Prices were up for us 1% in 2025. We plan to be price up again in 2026, but the more important question is how the margin expansion works out, because it's essentially price minus raws.
If you look at our plan in 2025, we were planning for more pricing, but also higher raws. The raws ended up being lower, which made some of the pricing gains more difficult to achieve.
It's really a question of how the market will unfold in 2026. Right now, it's looking like raws in the first half of the year will be favorable, and in the second half of the year prices will pick up and not be a little bit unfavorable.
The pricing discussions are ongoing, and it's about striking that balance with our customers. We'll be price up in '26, and we'll expand margins in '26.
Thanks for your questions, Thomas. Great.
Thanks.
Thomas Wrigglesworth
Thank you very much.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thank you.
Thomas Wrigglesworth
Good.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Laurent Favre at BNP Paribas.
Please go ahead.
Laurent Favre
Oh, thank you. Good morning.
Two questions, please. The first one, I'm sorry, it's a boring one, but you just mentioned Q1 would be similar to Q4.
I just wanted to clarify that I guess what you meant was on the year-on-year organic development. Then the second one, maybe a little bit more interesting, you mentioned that there would be more disposals in Asian Deco for the year.
I'm just wondering, are you thinking about specific areas where, I guess, you, like in India, don't have leadership, or are you also considering countries where you do have leadership and are you also considering, I guess, big countries like China where I think the market is a lot more skeptical?
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Maarten will take the Q1 question, I'll take the Asia question. We're working on more disposals in Deco Asia.
The starting point is always whether we feel that we've got a winning hand over time or whether our business might be more valuable to somebody else. We're not considering exiting China in Deco.
It's a good business. It's a business in which the market was really down the last two years and everybody suffered, and we're on our way to a recovery.
We had a good year in 2025 despite the fact that the market was still going down mid-single digits. In '26, the market will still be going slightly down in China in Deco, but we are planning to continue on our current momentum, and we see a market recovery in 2027.
We're working on improving our business in China and getting ahead of the wave and fully capitalizing on that market recovery. That's our priority for the next few years.
Everything else in Deco Asia, we're assessing because once we announced that we were selling India and we closed that, you can imagine that that generated inbounds, and we have views as to what the right moves are. We're working on some of them, but we don't plan to let the merger with Axalta slow down our momentum on this.
We'll execute these moves at the timing whenever they make sense, that's what I'm trying to say. Maarten, you want to take the Q1 question?
Maarten de Vries
On your question on Q1, Q1 sequentially versus Q4 is very much similar. You ask about the organic volume trends similar to Q4.
Then the only thing which will differ in Q1 is that there will be additional efficiency gains from the industrial excellence program. What I mentioned earlier is that the FX translation impact for Q1 will be again at €30 million if you compare that to last year Q1.
Similar to Q4, with a bit of additional efficiency gains.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Laurent, anything else?
Laurent Favre
No, that's it. Thank you.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Christian Faitz at Kepler Cheuvreux.
Please go ahead.
Christian Faitz
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my two questions.
First, back to China Deco. It seems to be a price/mix problem rather than a volume problem for the time being.
How long do you see this negative price/mix to continue? Will it improve during '26?
Then second question, can you elucidate a bit the situation in automotive refinish? Is this business still hampered by people not having their cars repaired because they fear increasing insurance premiums?
Thanks.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Yeah. Yes.
China Deco. The driver of the market downturn the last couple of years was the collapse of the real estate market in China, the property developers that went belly up.
Construction really really dropped significantly in China. That impacted the projects side of the business a lot more than the retail side of the business, because the retail side of the business is driven by renovation, even in China.
Although AkzoNobel had a small presence in projects and is actually the number two player in retail, we had the knock-on effect of some of our competitors shifting their capacity to try to gain volume on the retail side. Essentially that created a little bit of a price war driven by Nippon Paints on the retail side and took the profitability of the market down overall.
That volume trajectory still hasn't recovered, that's what I was trying to explain. Hasn't recovered for the market.
The market was down, I think I said mid-single digits in '25, but I think it was a little bit higher than that, it might have been even closer to high single digits. It's going to be down again mid-single digits in '26.
What's interesting about Akzo is that we've been recovering and we've been rebounding from a profit perspective by essentially capitalizing on our position in premium, where we've been doing well and we've been actually doing a lot better than the market. What you're calling a price/mix, our recovery has been driven by premium.
It's still a really competitive market. The price erosion has stopped, and I believe that in the market where there's been a lot of price giveback, there are very good reasons for essentially the players in the market to have price discipline going forward.
It's not a market recovery yet. That market recovery is really anticipated for 2027 based on projections of how the real estate essentially development is unfolding in the coming months.
China Deco good for us, not good overall as a market. We expect it to be good for us again in '26, but once again, it's due to our very specific positioning and our ability to win in premium.
Vehicle refinish, Maarten?
Maarten de Vries
Vehicle refinish, what we've seen is a continuing of the trend which we've seen in terms of the higher insurance premium and lower kind of softness in vehicle refinish in North America and in EMEA, while by the way, we see growth in Asia. That trend will for sure continue in Q1 and Q2 and is expected to improve in the second half of '26.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Christian, did we answer your question?
Christian Faitz
Yes, absolutely. Thanks very much.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thank you.
Christian Faitz
Yes, absolutely. Thanks very much.
Operator
The next question is from Matthew Yates at Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Matthew Yates
Hey, good morning, gentlemen. I've got a couple that are probably for Maarten.
First, can you just explain the corporate line in Q4 looked a bit lower than normal, let's say? Then I just had a question around the cash flow and where you are on working capital now.
Obviously, the metrics have improved. Just conscious, is that driven by volumes or is that price deflation coming through?
I'm trying to understand where your physical stocks are sitting relative to what you need given that your order book still seems to be going backwards at the moment. Maybe just for Greg, just to come back on the pricing.
I'm not entirely sure I understood the answer there. Do you think net pricing is definitely going to be positive in the first half and then the second half remains to be seen given whatever inflation we may or may not get in the raw material basket?
Thank you.
Maarten de Vries
Let me first start with your first two questions. On the corporate line, we've seen a bit higher benefits in Q4.
Of course, structurally on the back of also our SG&A saving program, but also we had some benefits in pension cost as well as insurance cost. Q4 was indeed a little bit lower than normal.
If you look going forward, in fact, in the past, this line has been roughly €70 million on a total year basis. '25 was a little bit lower.
Going forward, you should more think of between €60 and €70 million, it is going down, but Q4 was a little bit lower. On the free cash flow, has been very much driven by the working capital takeout, 15.7% at the end of last year, 14.7% at the end of '24, 14.7% at the end of '25.
In fact, on inventory levels, the DIO in days were flat versus the end of '24, but it included pre-buy of raw materials and also inventory build-up because of the industrial efficiency program, the site closures in the first quarter. Overall, we are happy with the trajectory of inventory, but also receivables and payables.
As we said, we will take further actions to reduce working capital. It will be around 14.5% or just below 14.5% at the end of this year.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
To your pricing question, Matthew, I wasn't trying to confuse you. What I was saying is that '25 was +1% price/mix.
'26 should not be very different. It's not going to be a whole lot more, and I'm pointing out the fact that the last year the raw mat environment was projected to be more challenging than it ended up being.
This year, raw mats will be favorable in the first half, less favorable in the second, and as a lot of the price increases, particularly in Deco, are things that we submit and we negotiate in the first half of the year. It's really just a question of how quickly we come to a conclusion on that, and a lot of our customers look at price versus raws.
We'll be expanding, but by how much remains to be seen, and it's not reflected significantly in our margin projections for 2026, the €100 million is not price-heavy. Maarten, did I explain that well?
You want to add anything? No,
Maarten de Vries
maybe some color. The €100 million is very much self-help, as we mentioned earlier.
You have the €90 million net benefit from industrial excellence program. We have the carryover of the SG&A program of at least €50 million, additional productivity actions, but those are there to offset inflation, because we will see again wage inflation of roughly 3%.
That net €90 million is a net benefit, and that's the main underpinning for the €100 million step-up.
Matthew Yates
Got it. Thank you both.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thanks.
Operator
Our next question is from Tony Jones at Rothschild & Co. Please go ahead.
Tony Jones
Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Tony Jones at Rothschilds.
I've got two. Firstly on cash, with the merger still on track, can you update us on the share repurchase?
I think it's €400 million post the India sale. I understand the approvals in place.
Can we assume that's front-loaded into the first half of '26? Then secondly, some of your peers have started to indicate where we are in a refurbishment cycle and how they're planning for that.
How do you see Akzo's position? Thank you.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
The first question I think is a slight misunderstanding. When we announced the merger, we announced that both companies were suspending share buybacks.
The €400 million share buyback at Akzo is not happening, but what's happening is that we're returning €2.5 billion to our shareholders at closing to get to the announced parity. You're not getting the €400 million as a share buyback upfront, but you're getting the €2.5 billion if we proceed according to plan towards the end of the year as we close the transaction.
The second question—
Maarten de Vries
The €2.5 billion, just to be clear, includes the regular dividend
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
during the year. Includes the regular dividend.
Maarten de Vries
Understood. What was your second question?
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Refurbishment? I didn't understand.
What do you mean by refurbishment cycle?
Tony Jones
Some of your competitors have started to talk about extended volume cycles, things like remodeling activity in certain countries or regions. Do you have a perspective on it?
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
No, we don't really have anything intelligent to say on this. I think it's a normal kind of behavior pattern, which is that when the Deco market is driven by consumer confidence, and when consumer confidence goes down, there's always been this philosophical debate of will customers paint less or will they paint with cheaper products?
What we've demonstrated over the last few cycles as it relates to Akzo is that we don't see a lot of trading down, consumers are not shifting to cheaper products, but they have a tendency to space out the repainting. That's in a confidence down scenario.
I think consumer confidence has been recovering, we're not seeing any specific spacing out of repainting or renovations in homes. This is not an effect that we'll use as an excuse for anything.
Tony Jones
Thank you. That's really helpful.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Next question is from Chetan Udeshi with JPMorgan.
Please go ahead.
Chetan Udeshi
Hi. Morning.
I had a couple of questions. First, just going back to the comments on Q1 sort of outlook, and I just wanted to clarify, typically we see some seasonal uplift in Q1 versus Q4, it could be like 4%, 5%.
Are you suggesting we won't see that, or were your comments more from a year-on-year perspective being similar to what you saw in Q4, but we should still see some sequential improvement, I suppose, in Q1 versus Q4? That's the first question.
The second question was one of the drags on volumes over second half of last year at Akzo, but also at your competitors, have been US weakness. We saw yesterday the manufacturing ISM print was very, very strong for month of Jan, and I was just curious if you've actually seen that reflect at all in your orders in the US, are you seeing any uplift in your order book in the US that we saw come through in the ISM index print?
Thank you very much.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
I'll I'll take the second question. It it's it's a bit early to to talk about a rebound in in the US, but in in one of our Coatings businesses for which I I do have the numbers for January, they're they're in line with what we were expecting in January, which is a good sign because sometimes there's a year end of year effect where where where people kind of are slow to to get out of the starting blocks in in January.
It seems to be progressing according to plan, but it it's really too early, Chetan, for us to to read signs of of an impending rebound in the US from that. We're still expecting that the first half will be will will be soft in general.
Maarten, you want
Maarten de Vries
to
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
answer the other question? On your
Maarten de Vries
question, Q4 and Q1 are traditionally the smaller quarters. What we commented on is that, if you look sequentially, Q1 looks a lot like Q4.
I commented earlier on the volume trajectory, and I also commented on the fact that we will see some of the efficiency actions coming through in Q1, which is then on top of Q4, but overall, similar trends.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Chetan, anything else?
Chetan Udeshi
Got it. Thank you.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thanks.
Chetan Udeshi
No, that's fine. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from James Hooper with Bernstein Societe Generale Group.
Please go ahead.
James Hooper
Thank you. Morning, both.
I've kind of got one question, two parts. How do you see your market share has changed over 2025?
Greg, I know you referenced packaging on the call, but there's also been some positive commentary out of some of your peers, for example, around auto refinish. Then around that, obviously you've shown on the slides you've made a lot of progress in the last few years on the cost side.
Is this the time for a more similar plan on the revenue side? Because if we compare your organic growth to peers, it's been slightly below, not just fourth quarter, but also through 2025 as well.
Thank you.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
The organic growth to peers, if I benchmark with PPG, they had a much better order in Q4 than we did, but overall, if I take the last 18 to 24 months, I'm pretty sure that if you benchmark the numbers, you'll see that we grew faster than they did. I don't think we're at a disadvantage to peers.
I do think PPG had a better quarter in Q4 from that perspective. You take the quarters in isolation, it's really hard to reach any conclusion.
Once again, I don't think we're growing less than comparable companies. I think we've actually been doing a little bit better from that perspective.
Your point is still correct, though. We've done a lot of work on costs.
That positions us to be very competitive as the market picks up. We haven't been trying to gain market share at the expense of pricing.
The combination of the cost takeout and the price discipline has been more about margin expansion than it has been about using price to gain volume. If I take your market share question, vehicle refinish, we're not losing market share.
I think these comments from peers were probably inelegant, cryptic comments about companies getting sold and being distracted and the other guys picking up the pieces while the company is getting distracted. It wasn't an Akzo comment, we're fine from that perspective.
Packaging is a very isolated issue. It's linked to product introduction.
You've got approvals. We were more ambitious in the product development, but that ambition led us to be a little bit late to the party in terms of getting the approvals.
The approvals are all happening. There's no technical issue linked to that, it's just that they put us at the back of the queue and therefore it leads to a market share drop for 12 to 18 months, a bit of last year and most of '26 and then a recovery in '27.
It's not ideal, but it's a temporary thing, and we're very confident about the quality and the performance of our product. On everything else, in powder, I think we've been gaining market share if I look at our performance versus everybody else.
In let's see, what can I comment? In Marine and Protective, clearly we've been gaining market share.
We've been recovering the last few years, and our trajectory is very much a market share positive trajectory, and I made the comment that our growth in Marine in '26 was based on drydocking market share gains. In Deco, we've been gaining, certainly in Latin America.
I know we gained market share in Colombia this year. Brazil was a weird year because of the Suvinil effect, as I explained, but I think Q4 was the first quarter where AkzoNobel had higher customer recognition than Suvinil in the retail market, knowing that historically Suvinil was the leader, so that tells you that our trajectory is pretty good.
In Deco in Europe, if you take the UK market, which is a really large market for us, our second largest customer went bankrupt last year, Homebase, and despite that, we didn't lose market share in 2025, which is really an incredible achievement if you think about it, because what it means is that, because, by the way, we were over-indexed in Homebase. Homebase had a very premium paint segment, our market share in Homebase was higher than our market share overall in the UK.
Despite Homebase disappearing and some of the stores getting closed and some of them changing formats, we maintained our market share in the UK, which means that people were not buying at Homebase, they were buying Dulux, and when Homebase went away, people bought Dulux somewhere else, which I think is an incredible reflection of the strength of the brand. No, from a market share perspective, we feel comfortable, apart from the packaging points, which is a temporary issue that I pointed out.
We feel comfortable that we are either defending or in the areas I've mentioned, gaining. Once again, in a market that doesn't have a whole lot of direction and has a lot of softness, you have to decide whether you're willing to compromise on price in order to gain volumes.
We clearly have competitors, if you take the powder market, we have competitors who are playing a price game right now, and some of those are competitors that I've mentioned in this long-winded answer. Different people have different game plans.
Ours is to expand margins, and that's what we'll continue to do. Then the volumes will come, but our first priority is not volumes.
We certainly want to defend our positions, but we will grow only if that growth is growth that comes with really strong price discipline. Hopefully, I answered your question.
Chetan Udeshi
Thank you, Greg, very comprehensive.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Stefano Stefano with ABN AMRO and ODDO BHF.
Please go ahead.
Stefano Toffano
Yes, good morning. Maybe still one question on the market share.
Very comprehensive answer, thank you very much for that. Looking at the results, I think, if I'm not mistaken, and please correct me if I'm wrong, this is the first negative organic growth quarter since I believe Q2 2020 according to my model, unless I made some mistake.
Do I read too much into that because again, one of the first ideas here is, yeah, maybe you're focusing internally on the margin, etc., but at the expense of some overall market share. Maybe if you can comment a little bit on that.
Second one on working capital, I noticed that the mid-term guidance for the working capital has been nudged up a little bit to 13% to 14%, and it was 13%. I was wondering what the idea was behind that.
Last question, just a technical one, if you can please remind me how much India adjusted EBITDA was in 2025. Thank you.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Okay. Your first question, I gave a really long-winded answer the first time around, I'll give a really short one: Yes, you're reading too much into Q4.
It's a small quarter. There's no valid extrapolation for that one data point, and as you rightly pointed out, the direction's been pretty consistently the other way around for the last few years, and therefore, no, we're not dropping market share.
I commented very transparently on packaging. A lot of companies would sort of dance around these issues.
Look, at the end of the day, sometimes you're first out of the gates, sometimes you're not first out of the gates, and it's important to understand how that unfolds. Overall, we've had good momentum in a soft market, and once again, we're not arbitrating in the way you're implying.
I said it'd be a short answer, and then I couldn't resist giving a longer one, but yes, you're reading too much. Working capital, Maarten?
Maarten de Vries
On working capital, yes, our original guidance which we gave two years ago was around 13%. We're saying now more in the range of 13% to 14%.
I think it's also a reflection that the world is changing, and it's better to have a little bit more inventory, especially given the volatility in the markets and the tariff situation, things have changed. Overall, we are on our improvement trajectory from working capital levels which were 17%, 18%, coming now to 14.7% and getting by '27 to that range of 13% to 14%.
It's very much also benefiting on the back of our industrial efficiency program, where we are optimizing our footprint, but also our supply chains. That's on working capital.
On India, and what we've said earlier is that compared to '25, you need to correct for €40 million downwards, and the impact in December was €6 million. The total correction on adjusted EBITDA level is €46 million, of which €6 million sits already in December '25, and then '25 to '26, a correction of €40 million.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
I think this was the last question,
Stefano Toffano
Jan-Willem. Perfect.
Thank you very much, guys.
Grégoire Poux-Guillaume
Hey, thanks a lot. We'll we'll wrap up because you guys have a busy day.
It's Q4 was Q4 was was a soft quarter in terms of market momentum, but it was a strong quarter in terms of execution, as was 2025. We end the quarter and we end the year price up, profit up, cash up.
We're executing on what we can control. Once again, we're staying disciplined, and we're working full speed ahead on getting to a closing with Axalta as quickly as possible and targeting the end of 2026, and at least in this early phase, hitting our milestones to get there.
That's all I have for you today. I thank you for your time and your interest, and we'll talk to you soon.
Thank you.
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