Operator
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Barry Irvin, Executive Chairman.
Please go ahead.
Barry Irvin
Thank you, and welcome, everybody. I'm delighted that you took the time to join us today, and very pleased to be presenting this result with our CEO Pete, Peter Findlay, and our CFO Gunther Burghardt.
Ladies and gentlemen, I will limit my comments because I feel like what we are delivering today is what we have promised our shareholders that we would deliver over an extended period of time. The reality is I am proud of this result.
It demonstrates an execution of strategy, and it demonstrates the quality of the team given the responsibility of delivering that strategy. Anybody that is aware of Bega Group's history will be very aware of the transformational work that we've done over an extended period of time, and the support we've received from our shareholders in making sure that we can execute that transformation.
I'm delighted with the high quality brand portfolio we have, and the continued progress in making sure that those brands are relevant to our customers and consumers here and around the world, and we continue to innovate to make sure that that remains the case into the future. We've been investing strongly behind this business because we believe investment leads to success, and we will continue to do that over the coming years.
We're also delighted with the performance of our bulk segment as we again demonstrate the value of focus and agility to respond to changes in markets, and indeed to make sure that we look in all our products to operate at the higher-value end of whatever market they may be in. With those comments said, I think that it is very appropriate for me to congratulate the team that has delivered this result, and ask Pete Findlay to further expand on what we've achieved in the last 6 months.
I'll hand over to Pete.
Pete Findlay
Fantastic, Barry. Thank you very much.
As we step into the step into the result, and in particular, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to page 6. I think it's worth reflecting on our strategic journey and what we've done.
I think we have gone through a transformative period, and I think as we reflect on that, understand what we've done and then where that can take us in the future, which is which I think is very, very exciting. If we look at what's been we've done over the last 2 and a half years leading up to this result, basically we we wanted to get together as a team and really simplify and focus the business.
We had some terrific opportunities as we did that to look at how we might take the business into the future. One of the the key things was about getting the business ready for growth.
The first thing we'd want to do is attack our our cost base and our cost structures and our and our manufacturing footprint, and just make sure that that was ready. We we would have if we hadn't made any changes, we would have actually had 22 sites operating across Australia today, but by the end of the year we'll actually be at 15.
We've taken seven sites out of our network. That that that journey started with the closure of Canberra.
We then acquired two sites with the Betta Milk acquisition, and we closed those sites. We actually sold our Leeton juice primary production facility, and did an offtake agreement with The Grove company, which is working exceptionally well.
We then sold our two PCA sites, and of course, we're closing our Strathmerton site at the 30th of June this year. What that's enabled us to do is actually reduce our cost structure, but at the same time actually produce more, which is certainly helped us leverage our our operational footprint.
At the same time, we also wanted to make sure that we had a corporate head office ready for for growth. We did a restructure there, aligning aligning the corporate head office around our new manufacturing footprint, but also our new our new focus as as on our distribution channels and how we go to market.
In doing that, we took 250 roles out of our corporate head office. If I actually look at the the footprint of our business and the people employed, when we started our strategy, we had about 4,300 full full-time equivalents, and we'll end the year at 3,400.
Yet, we're producing more product in a more targeted way that we think is actually more relevant to our consumers over that first 2 and a half years. We also reduced our our logistics network down from over 100 distribution sites down to about 75.
We've reduced our distribution footprint by 75%, which has enabled us to keep our logistics cost per liter flat over the last 2 years, which has been an outstanding effort by the team. In getting our cost structure right, we've also focused on growth.
We have actually invested in some of our in some of our key areas, particularly around milk-based beverages and yogurt, of course, with the introduction of a new yogurt pouch line a couple of years ago, and I'm really pleased to say that we'll have another yogurt pouch line going live in June this year. We've also invested in our in our milk-based beverage business up at Wetherill Park with the with a new blow molding facility up there producing bottles on-site, which has helped our cost structure enormously.
Then the evolution of our products has been really exciting. We've we've enhanced our products to fit with new wellness trends.
We've developed lactose-free product across our milk-based beverage, white milk, and yogurt offerings. We've also stepped into protein in a very strong way, with protein launches both in milk-based beverages, yogurt, and white milk that's actually exceeding expectations.
Now we'd now look to the next chapter of what we will bring to to our consumer offerings. With that growth with with the growth, though, we we we now and and the smaller footprint, we now think that we will switch to to very much a growth mindset.
Previously, with the with a larger manufacturing footprint, probably 50% of our capital allocation was going to maintaining our sites. With a smaller footprint, more efficiency, we think we'll flip that to probably about 70% going to growth projects and 30% maintaining our sites.
In fact, we've got some very large capital spend in play around yogurt and MBB, which we think will help help meet the significant demand we're seeing both domestically and internationally for our our products, particularly around yogurt, cream cheese, and milk-based beverages. I've just been incredibly pleased with the the work that we've done as an organization.
I think we're in a terrific spot 2 and a half years into our strategy, as you'll see with our our financial results. I'm actually really excited about what that brings to bear not only over the next 2 and a half years as we complete our 5-year strategy, but where we can take the business into the future.
Of course, that's played out with with outstanding balance sheet performance, and and Gunther and the team need to take a huge amount of credit for that. We have reduced our leverage.
Back in 2019 when I joined the business, leverage was at over three times. We now we now sit just above one times, which is a fantastic position to be in.
With that smaller footprint and the growth in our earnings, our ROFE has actually improved dramatically. We're at 3.7% 3.7% return on funds employed when we entered our strategy at the start of the 2024 financial year, and we finished this result at just over 10% return on funds employed, which I think is an outstanding effort and really goes to our ethos of of doing more with less and and really sweating our assets hard.
Very pleased with with with how the journey of our strategy is going and and where we're sitting now for the next 2 and a half years to complete that 5-year outlook. We turn to the next page, which is page which is page 7, key messages.
Obviously, incredibly pleased with the result that we've experienced in the first half. Our branded business ticked along very much according to plan, with with with good, strong growth in a in a reasonably constrained environment.
We're extremely pleased with our bulk business and its resilience in a in a in a in an environment where our commodity prices fell away dramatically in the second half, or in the second quarter of of our first half. We're able to mitigate a lot of that through very targeted selling and a very targeted product mix, which was which was very good.
Our brand our branded business, we've got significant growth through yogurt, MB, and and the milk categories with with launching onto the protein and better-for-you trends, which we're very pleased about. There was a small recovery in out-of-home consumption, but our our food service actually continued to continued to beat market trends there, and we're extremely pleased with our growth.
That's that was also another thing that we decided to lean into strategically a couple of years ago. We developed some terrific ranges and and recruited some wonderful people, and we're seeing some very good benefits from our food service business there.
Of course, we had accelerated double-digit growth in our international branded business. We're extremely pleased with the progress we're making there.
In fact, it's now up to our supply chain to keep up with that increased demand, and that actually fits with some of those capital initiatives I was talking about in my in my introduction. Also benefiting from from some investment in in feet on the ground in Southeast Asia and Middle East, and we've got some wonderful new people that have joined our business that that are very high caliber and I think will will help lead that business into the future.
One really pleasing thing was that we actually increased our milk intake during the year. In an environment where the milk production is actually decreasing in Australia, we've actually increased our milk intake by 6%, which I think is showing that the farmers are seeing us as a really good option as a processor to take their milk.
We've got a competitive price structure in place, and and farmers are actually confident about the industry as we are and where we're heading. Very pleased about that that growth in in milk in milk milk intake.
Also reflects really well on our farm services team, in their ability to get out to farmers and connect with them and share our vision for their for their businesses moving forward. Obviously successful implementation of our transformational efficiency programs.
We are probably seeing some benefits from our PCA closure and sell-off happening this year. We talked about that being a $5 to $10 million headwind for the business.
We talked about that being strategically better in the hands of someone else. As we've wound down our exposure to that plant, we're probably picking up some of that benefits this year.
A lot of work being done with the transition from Strathmerton to Ridge Street, but we're pleased to say that that is going well. We've just had factory acceptance testing of all of our new lines in Germany.
The team have been over there, and we continue to work very closely with with both teams, both the teams at Ridge Street and Strathmerton, to ensure that that transition goes smoothly, and we're excited about that. Our new automated distribution center at Laverton has been has been, it's had some difficulties, but it's basically fundamentally moving in the right right direction, and we're very comfortable with the benefits that it will create into the into the very back half of this year, but 2027.
That continues to be a bit of a game changer as we look to expand our yogurt production and capacity in '27 and '28. Really pleased to say that despite reducing our headcount by more than 800 people and increasing our output, our staff engagement levels have actually increased.
We use the Gallup survey across the entire business, and we've actually never had our engagement numbers higher than what they were this year. We're incredibly pleased that the people working in our organization who have been with us through this transformational change and have seen significant upheaval often in a lot of their functions are actually more engaged than they've ever been and feeling confident about our future, which is which which we think is a very important indicator for how we want to set up for success moving forward.
Leverage ratio at 1.2 times, the whole business is leant into that, and and we're really pleased with where the balance sheet's positioned. We think it lines us up for some strong capital, and targeted capital into the future, but but also potentially to take take advantage of any corporate activities as they may arise.
It's with it's with with that strong first half in mind that we're actually increasing our 2026 guidance range from 200 to $222 million to $227 million of normalized EBITDA. That's up from 215 to 220, which was our previous guidance.
We're feeling very positive about about the business moving forward. If we just flick onto the next page, page 8.
Obviously, really pleasing to see the numbers that we produced this half. We think that they will flow through obviously into the full-year result and are very much in line with what we set out to do when we set out when when when we set set the business up for our 5-year strategy.
We think we're well on line well in line to to achieve or overachieve our 2028 result of two of $220- $250 million of normalized earnings. Once again, really pleased to see that flowing through to to our earnings per share, which is increased at a normalized level quite significantly.
Our return on funds employed, which were two 10.2%, which is actually significantly up from the 3.7 we recorded at the end of the 2023 year. Our EBITDA margin continues to improve, and that's something that we work upon.
We're getting good growth across the top lines. This is not just a cost-out financial shape.
It's it's happening, we could see good results across all lines within the business. Obviously the terrific work that we did restructuring the the the business to be a consolidated tax entity, which was quite significant.
It was one of the biggest consolidations that we've seen in in Australia. That's obviously allowing us to share tax losses across our our our entities, and you'll see that that that's that's benefited our normalized profit after tax.
We're we're extremely pleased with that. If I just touch very briefly on on page 9, we're still very happy with our strategic shape and our strategic priorities.
Obviously, the executive team look at those on a on a 3-monthly basis. We measure ourselves against those.
We think that those those six pillars that we've lined up there will take us to our 2028 plan and beyond, and we have a really exciting set of priorities and things to work on as a management team. There is still plenty of things to do in the business that we think can help drive our performance forward.
I won't spend any further on that slide. We move on to page 10.
Significant operational highlights. I was extremely pleased with the new product launches we've had.
All of our protein launches exceeded business case within days rather than months, which would normally be the case. Now it's actually now that we've got those in market, they've been so well accepted, the focus will be on actually making sure our supply chain can keep up with those.
We will unabashedly increase capital expenditure, but increase it on those focused areas to ensure that we can meet these significant customer demands. We're actually working with working with our customers on that as we speak.
Incredibly pleased with that. That actually took a fair bit of effort and a fair bit of work.
A lot of our factories were built 20 years ago, and so to ensure that we're able to to move with those trends, we the team have done a huge amount of work and moved very quickly, and I couldn't be more pleased with the the alignment across our organization to make that happen, and and just incredibly in- incredibly proud of the effort that our team did to to pivot quickly. Increased marketing spend by nearly $8 million.
We're spending marketing in a very different way than what we have previously. Really focused on on on on our key power brands and linking those with with wellness and performance.
We had some wonderful wonderful ambassadors for our products. Then the great thing about that is that you can, leverage that exponentially through social media.
We've we've invested heavily in our social media presence and having that that capability in-house, and we're finding that our ability to reach people quickly with with with direct messages and meet and reach target audiences has been enhanced. We've increased our spend, but we think we've actually increased our our reach in in a really effective way on top of that spend.
Above-market growth in food service. We continue to have a very good team who are attacking I would say latent opportunities in food service, and we think that that will continue to grow.
Our growth rate in food service is one of our highest growth rates, and we continue to take market share off our competitors. A strong first-half bulk performance.
The team identified that you commodities would would would probably drop away as the year went on. They were very aggressive in in forward selling a lot of our a lot of our a lot of our product into markets at a good price.
That was part of the story. The other part of the story is we've been working very hard on our mix.
The team have done an excellent job in creating protein protein products that are very relevant as ingredients now as we see this protein revolution across the world. We're also producing a lot of cream cheese for our branded business, a lot of the lift in that international branded business actually flowed back into our bulk business.
Significant expansion in cream cheese and lactoferrin, and so those strong product mixes and focus that that Hamish and the team have been doing for a couple of years now have helped us alleviate and mitigate some of the dropping in in commodity pricing. However, it should be noted that, commodity pricing we see that being we see that, meeting some headwinds over the next sort of 12, 18 months, but certainly I was really pleased with the way the team have been able to position us to not be as impacted by that as badly as what we would have been even 3 or 4 years ago.
Continued refinement of our branded assets. I've talked about that, massive project going on with the reallocation of Strathmerton into the Bega Valley contract manufacturing site at Ridge Street.
We will separate 300 people from the business, which has been difficult, but we're managing that as best we can, and we'll obviously be paying a significant amount of one-off costs to make those people redundant, which which Gunther will speak to. We're also spending about $40 to $50 million on capital improvements at the Ridge Street plant to enable a really cost-competitive processed cheese facility, and so we're excited about how that might lead into not only the more domestic volume, but but some international volume as well.
Of course, the the transition from PCA continues to do well. We we continue to optimize our chilled distribution network.
We as part of that consolidation of our distribution centers and warehouses I spoke about before, we sold our Frenchs Forest asset, which which pulled nearly $10 million into the business from from a cash perspective. The automation of our Laverton warehouse will be significant because all of our yogurt volume flows through that and into our national and international markets.
Obviously, significant software investments across our revenue management. We are implementing AI into our business.
We're using that for revenue management. We're getting some terrific recommendations and findings out of that already, and we continue to what push robotic process of automation in particular across our back-office functions, but now we're starting to push into our factories.
We're starting to see significant benefits where we can actually smooth out process flows throughout our factories and look to make our factory paperless and and our information flows much more efficient, and so getting systems to speak to each other, which is which is terrific. If I move on to the next slide, and I'll talk about consumer trends.
This is what's driving a lot of our domestic performance. We are incredibly lucky that that that the Australian consumer is now actually, really redefining their relationship with food.
We're seeing significant changes in the way people are looking at food, and they're using food to create health and life lifestyle outcomes. If we go back a few years, people were extremely concerned about their lifespan and how long they would live.
Now we're finding that the Australian consumer is actually becoming far more preoccupied with their their their their their healthspan or their quality of life. We're seeing people actually want to do more during their life, they want to do more for longer.
They're starting to take a far more a far more interest in how they generate a better lifespan, and food and what they're eating they're seeing as a key input to that. We see the key trends here linked upon the page.
We're seeing a lot more people eating or wanting to eat for everyday performance. That's, around, more helping consumers build their strength and vitality.
It's about more than just protein. It's about how do I turn up and be purposeful each day, and how do I live my best life each day?
Then we see gut health, and how that applies to people's mind and wellness. We see people being very preoccupied with their weight, understanding that the weight that they carry at 30, 40, and 50 will impact their health outcomes at 60, 70, and 80.
We see them wanting a healthy mind. They're very preoccupied around products that create that create calmness or create cognitive enhancement and sleep patterns.
We also see them wanting to have treats and rewards, but do it in a healthy way. The great thing is that all of these trends are playing around a lot of the products we make, particularly in dairy, where the naturalness of dairy, the high protein content, the macro counts, and the pre- prebiotic benefits which are being attached to gut health and healthy mind are actually significant trends.
We're seeing huge growth in both yogurt and milk-based beverage, which and and white milk even, which are which are great vehicles for people's lifestyle decisions around what they're what they're eating. If we turn to the next page, page 12, which is our you'll see there that there's significant category growth across the the categories that we play in.
In fact, in some cases around yogurt and milk-based beverages, the category growth is actually double-digit. Therefore, if you turn to page 13, now that we've got a footprint that is very much aligned with where we want to go, we've got a footprint that actually doesn't require as much maintenance capital, we really want to focus on growing our capability and our supply in both yogurt and milk-based beverages over the next couple of years.
Previously, from FY '22 to '25, we were investing about $77 million in CapEx. We actually want to step that up to anywhere up to $110 million a year to ensure that we're in a great position to grow with that category growth across milk-based beverages and yogurt.
We think that if we can get that capital in quickly and we can focus on that, we can actually create a competitive advantage and we can enjoy growth in those sorts of categories for the next 5 to 10 years to come. We're very excited about that and and and how that will shape our decision-making with growth into the future.
I'll turn to page 14. That just shows you a little bit about the great innovation we've been doing around some of those key trends.
You'll see that particularly everyday performance, the launch of protein into our drinks, the launch of across both yogurt, white milk, and milk-based beverages. We're incredibly excited about that.
The and the new Dare energy range that we've done, which helps with cognitive enhancement. Then that core brand growth on page 15, really getting behind our big brands.
We're super pleased to see particularly the the market share improvement in our yogurt, in fact, the wonderful performance of Farmers Union, which just continues to be an amazing product and brand for us in in that yogurt category. We're really able to leverage some of those ambassador ambassador relationships that we have.
Obviously, many of you would have noticed the Travis Head relationship that we're able to amplify through social media across the summer, which which really helped drive our our Farmers Union recognition on shelf. If I move to the next page, page 16, that just shows the dramatic work we've done.
We're down to 17 production sites, and we'll be down to 15 by the end of the year. We feel that we've got a a really good network now that that that is focused and that we can invest in.
We may continue to do more work around this in the future, but we but but we certainly think we've done a lot of the heavy lifting, and that's helped drive our result today, particularly our return on fund return on funds employed. If we move on to the next page, which which is page 17, and this is an interesting chart here.
The red line shows the average Victorian milk price, and that blue squiggly line shows the commodity milk value, and that's based on on on product that's being sold. You'll see there that we've had a significant drop away from when we set the milk price in July and a further fall in October.
That's why that forward selling was so important. You'll also note that a lot of that blue squiggly line, about 50% of Australia's exports are actually around cheese, cheddar cheese and and different cheeses.
That's why we're actually able to outperform that blue line, which which is far more reflective of of the broader dairy industry. We obviously a lot of our exports are are based around cream cheese, which is slightly different, and and our high-protein powders and our protein extracts such as lactoferrin.
We are actually able to outperform that line. Whilst that line is indicative of where commodity prices are going and maybe indicative where of where milk prices are going, we've actually been able to outperform that and and break away from that a little bit, which is which I've been incredibly pleased about.
If we move on to the the next page, which is just our sustainability strategy, I won't spend too long on that. What I would say is that we've been doing a lot of work around obviously meeting our 2030 corporate commitments, and we we feel we feel very pleased about our progress there, and in fact, we we're working on a couple of significant projects that that we hope will transform our our rate of delivery to those commitments.
We've also created a broader sustainability strategy incorporating circularity, community, and collaboration. That won't be just about our our corporate commitments.
It's really about everything that we're doing as a as an organization. Obviously, our link with with the tremendous work that Barry's been doing with the the Bega Circularity Cooperative.
We're very excited about how that will play out, and and of course, a lot of that gets documented in our sustainability report that comes out in October. A wonderful I I think a wonderful first half, set up for a strong second half, very much in line with our strategy, and very much on target with with the outcomes we want to achieve.
I'll throw to to Gunther to talk a little bit more about our our key financial messages. Thanks, Gunther.
Gunther Burghardt
Fantastic. Thank you very much, Pete.
On page 19, I won't spend a lot of time on the financial key messages. Pete's covered a lot of those.
I will draw out a few points, however. When we reported our FY '25 year end, last year in FY '25 was a very slow year for the overall out-of-home consumption, food service channels, cafes, restaurants.
What we've been pleased to see is that we're seeing a tentative recovery in that area. Out-of-home consumption, food service as an overall channel is growing more like 4% or 5% this year, whereas last year it was flat, and we're really pleased to see that.
I saw some research showing that, in fact, over 20% of discretionary dollars that Australians have are now going into that sort of out-of-home consumption channels and in food service areas, and that's encouraging. That represents a little bit of an increase over the last couple of years, so that's pleasing.
As Pete mentioned, in terms of our structural changes with the peanut processing, the primary peanut processing, we have been seeing benefits early. If you look at sort of the first half and the full year of F '26, there's several million dollars of earlier delivery of benefits from that move in peanuts, and we've put that straight into branded advertising and higher A&C levels.
Let's really cement these great new innovations that Pete talked about with additional support. It's fair to say we've invested more in supporting our innovation and our brands in the first half than we thought we would at the time of the budget.
That work with our supply network consolidation, that has helped to fund that greater support for our innovation, which is terrific. Laverton, as Pete said, we are working through going live on that in the next few months, and like any high-technology automation project, that takes a bit of time.
We'll see most of the benefits of Laverton next year, which we expect to be several million dollars. That's great.
That sort of cheese consolidation from Strathmerton into Ridge Street, that'll also be predominantly an F '27 benefit. The combination of those two huge savings initiatives and network initiatives, they will begin to accelerate the growth of our branded EBITDA in F '27 because they're both fairly large.
That's pleasing. Pete talked a little bit about the cost of achieving those really significant network consolidations and automations, and we will see some of that in the second half of the year.
What you normally see from Bega is, in that first half, we invest in inventory as we take in that spring milk, and this year the milk prices were up a bit, and so you do see that normal first-half investment. We get between 60% and 70% of our milk in the first half of the year.
Now, normally in the second half, we then sell down that inventory before we get to year end, and you will see us sell down that inventory as we do seasonally, and the demand's been very good for fats and proteins, which is pleasing. We will be investing a lot in the second half of the year to make these really important supply consolidation and automation programs happen.
What you will see in H2 is we will invest between $30 and $35 million in redundancies as we finish the cheese consolidation, the Laverton project happens, and we finish the PCA peanut processing consolidation and the exit. About $35 million in redundancies and over $60 million in capital expenditure.
We are unapologetic about that investment. That will lead to the acceleration of branded profit next year, and it's very important that we do that.
That will cause leverage to tick up a little bit. We were very pleased with the 1.2 times leverage that you see at the half year.
I would expect net debt to be around $240 million or so at year end, and leverage will be about 1.3, 1.4 times. Once we do that big investment, that will be the outcome at the end of this year.
As I said, you will see branded EBITDA accelerating next year as we benefit from those very large programs. We are fully committed and believe in the payout that we will get from that focus in our networks, that automation in our networks.
So 1.3 to 1.4 times leverage at the full year, and then absent any M&A activity, improving dramatically next year as we reap the benefits of those investments. On the next page, slide 20, it's our P&L statement, just a couple of points here.
We have a depreciation, amortization, which is roughly flat against the prior year, and we're expecting something around the neighborhood of $93 million or so in the full year for depreciation, amortization. You're also seeing our finance costs beginning to improve as our cash flow and our balance sheet improves.
I would call out something like $31 million in the full year in terms of net finance costs would be our outlook. We have a normalized tax rate at 28%, and that's benefiting from things like R&D investments, and actually, in the case of Frenchs Forest, the contract was signed in the F '25 year and settled in the first half of this year.
That also contributes to the slightly lower effective tax rate. If you put all this together, very strong, an increase of 45% in normalized earnings per share.
We see the full year landing at around 23 cents per share in normalized EPS, which compares very well to 16.6 cents for full year last year. Very pleasing to see that.
If you remember, Pete was reflecting on the strat plan journey we've been on the last 2 and a half years. When we came out with that strategic plan, we said 5 years down the road, we want to hit 25 to 30 cents of normalized EPS by F '28.
We'll already be at 23 cents at the end of this year, and we'll probably exceed that EPS target in F '27, a year early. Very pleasing progress on that.
The next slide, page 21, is key performance measures. For us, the two most important measures are always gross margin and ROFE.
Right? Gross margin drives your EBITDA margin, and it improves your ROFE.
Pete's already talked about the great move from 3.7% ROFE in F '23 up to about 10% now. It will come off a tiny bit in the second half as we make those big investments, but we expect it to land in the mid to high 9% range.
Almost tripling our ROFE in a 3-year period, which is great. Gross margins moved ahead, as you can see from this chart, by 0.6 points when you compare it to the first half of last year.
Both branded and the bulk business saw moves forward in gross margin, which was pleasing. That's very good.
The next slide, on 21, just shows that both branded and bulk are contributing strongly to the movement higher in EBITDA. It's really on slide 23, the next one, that we get into the segment performance.
A couple of callouts on slide 23 in that segment performance. It's great to see both the branded and the bulk business growing 5% in revenue.
Very balanced growth in those two businesses, and that's great. If you delayer what happened in the branded business, usually our pricing is really just recovering milk costs and other input costs.
That's all it does, it recovers cost structure. It required about 3% price and mix in order to offset the costs that we have in areas such as milk and other input costs.
Then we had 2% volume growth. So 3% mix price and 2% volume, that's how you get the 5% overall growth in your branded business.
What are we expecting as we look forward to the full year? We called out already in August at our results at the end of last year that we'd expect around $220 million normalized EBITDA in our branded business for the full year, plus or minus $5 million, and that remains our view in spite of the higher marketing investment levels.
We've been able to fund those with the earlier delivery of the PCA benefits, the peanut benefits, and we retain that outlook of $220 million. Bulk has been first-half weighted, and Pete talked about that evolution in commodity prices.
We've got $41 million normalized EBITDA in the bulk unit in the first half. That will be the majority of our profit for the full year.
We expect it could be $45 or $50 million at the full year, but that implies a second half which has a lot less milk, maybe about a third of our milk intake for the year. As Pete said, commodities are lower in that second half, and then, of course, we'll see what happens in milk procurement season and what that means for F '27.
Bulk, we're done about almost 90% of our profits for the year so far, call it $45 to $50 million. Then in unallocated, we're expecting about $45 million in the full year.
Within that, Pete talked about some of the RPA and AI initiatives. Some of those are SaaS platforms as well.
There's $3 or $4 million within that that are investments in AI, RPA, and IT-type initiatives. Again, they lead to efficiencies, capabilities in future years, and we're very excited about what they're already bringing to us in terms of benefits.
If I flip to the next page, page 24, it's a reconciliation of normalized results. We had about $9 million of pre-tax normalizations, and you'll get a little bit more in the second half as we complete that Ridge Street consolidation.
I won't really say much more on the balance sheet on slide 25. I think we've covered the really good results in leverage, and we've talked about what to expect at the full year.
I think those are the key messages on that slide. I'll finish off, before I hand back to Pete, on slide 26 on cash flow.
As I said, normally a negative operating cash flow in that first half as we take in that sort of spring milk and we process that. If you look at it, we always disclose the movement from our trade receivables facility, and here you see we've reduced our reliance on that facility by $45 million.
If you exclude that, we actually had a positive operating cash flow in spite of that inflow of spring milk. We think that's a really good result for this time of the seasonal cycle.
Again, Frenchs Forest sale, a very good outcome, and you can expect more underutilized asset sales from us in calendar year 2026. We've got another one or two that are on deck that we're working through.
It's really about capital allocation. How do we make sure if there are assets that are not contributing, we recognize the cash from those, and we invest it back in our business.
Going to hand back to Pete, who's going to finish off with our outlook for the year.
Pete Findlay
Fantastic, Gunther. Thank you very much.
I think we're very happy with our branded outlook, where our products sit and our innovation pipeline. We've got some terrific products that we'll launch in the second half, and we're planning to launch a lot then in the following years.
That work's being done now. We continue to really like the way our products are framing up with some significant consumer trends at the moment.
We think that those consumer trends are not short-term trends. We think they're medium to long-term trends, and we think that we've got a lot of area to play in with our product offering and our capability, not just actually in Australia, but internationally.
It's interesting, a lot of these trends I've talked about around performance and wellness and weight wellness are actually very relevant to Southeast Asia and the Middle East and Central Asia where a lot of our product goes. The cost management programs are very much in train.
We continue to work on our supply chain. The automation of Laverton, whilst problematic, is working well.
Some of the work we're doing around our factories and our sites around pushing our plant speed of our lines and our manufacturing patterns continues to provide benefit, and I'm so pleased with the way the team just seem to be able to go away and find better and better synergies each year in how we run things. I think there's actually quite a significant opportunity for us to look at our whole value chain and how our factories are flowing through to our logistics network and into our customers.
Still very pleased with the progress to date, but still very excited about what we will do in the future. Obviously, Strathmerton and PCA were significant projects.
We really pinned our ears back to get those done within a 12-month timeframe, and so far, that is on track and will provide us with significant benefit next year. We're unabashed about our desire to spend more on growth now.
As I look at yogurt, we will commit to spending a significant amount on yogurt capacity throughout the year and into next year. We would love to have more yogurt capacity now.
We're currently constraining domestic and international supply. We don't think that demand is going anywhere, and we're working very closely with our key customers to ensure that our consumers have a fantastic yogurt and milk-based beverage offering both here in Australia and overseas for the next 5 to 10 years.
We will get very aggressive with our capital expenditure in those places, and the team are doing a significant amount of work on that at the moment. Our bulk segment, Gunter is right, a lot of the profit happens in the first half.
What we're doing now is preparing our product mix for the next 18 months, as we think where the market's going to go. A lot of work will go into continuing to be attractive to our farmers as we go into milk procurement season in sort of April, May, June, July, continuing to ensure that we can pay a competitive price so that our milk intake stays at very competitive levels, and that we continue to take milk share or share in milk in the milk pool here in Australia, and evaluate where our ingredients products will fit market needs over the next 18 months.
We obviously, as I've reiterated, we will increase our guidance range up to 222 to 227 of normalized EBITDA, and I still think very much that we're on track to exceed our 2028 outcomes that we set up to the market a couple of years ago, and I think we're in a really strong position to exceed those, but also set the business up for growth out beyond 2030. A lot of the things that we're doing now and that we've done over the last 2 and a half years in that transformative program that we put in place, I actually think sets us up for a really exciting 2030 and beyond.
I don't think some of these trends we're seeing, some of the tailwinds we're seeing around the product categories that we're playing in, are going anywhere. I think we're ideally situated with a competitive cost footprint, manufacturing footprint in Australia to service not just domestic needs, but international needs.
I remain really excited about that and what we're doing beyond 2028 to take advantage of that. I'll now throw to Barry for any closing comments.
Barry Irvin
Thank you, Pete and Gunther. I I don't think I need to add much, quite frankly.
I think the the the team, as always, have illustrated, quite frankly, the great brand portfolio we have, the great products that we are delivering to our consumers, and indeed our, the the the great the great products that also we do we're delivering through our ingredients and nutritionals business that we that we refer to in the in the bulk segment, and the great infrastructure that is fit for purpose, and and justifies the investments that Pete and Gunther are talking about in terms of us us investing for the future, but also investing for future growth and future profits. I think what this result really demonstrates is that is the both the the focus of the team, but also the agility of the team to make sure that we are we are very aware of what the future holds for us.
I think you can tell by both Pete and Gunter's comments that that future is a is a bright one as far as we are concerned, and we're and we are delighted that we are positioning the company to take the opportunities that that that are actively there and also deal with challenges as we as we always have done. I I'm I congratulate the team on the result that they have delivered, and I thank I thank our our our staff overall, who are who are whilst whilst we talk about the executive team's focus, one thing that I know for around our sites and within our teams everywhere is their strong focus and their and their wish to exceed expectation.
I and I think it it remains our wish at the very top of the business that we do that for our shareholders and our customers. I with that said, I'm very happy to throw to questions.
Operator
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
If you wish to cancel your request, please press *2. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question.
Your first question comes from Phil Kimber with E&P. Please go ahead.
Phil Kimber
Hey, guys. Can you hear me okay?
Pete Findlay
Got you, Phil.
Phil Kimber
Perfect. First question is really on that bulk business and that sort of great work in bringing forward sales while commodity prices were high.
I'm sort of moving my vision out to FY '27 and wondering, is the way to think about this the second half, I know it's seasonally smaller, but that's more reflective of the tougher dairy prices, and that might flow into the first half of '27? Is there sort of a 6-month lag behind that chart that you showed I can't remember what the slide number was, but the chart with the commodity milk value?
I just wanted to understand that moving into FY '27.
Pete Findlay
Yeah. Phil, it's a good question.
We get a lot of our benefit in the first half is actually driven because our factories are full.
Phil Kimber
They're
Pete Findlay
covered. We get most of our milk in the first half and those big commodity factories, they're full.
There's a number of components to it. We did get better pricing, but we always make a lot more money in the first half because our factories are full.
Then what we do is we usually sell off our lower-yielding products in the second half because they're the products that tend to carry skim milk powder and so forth. There is a natural shape that always happens regardless of what commodity prices are doing.
There's an element of what you say is potentially true. We don't know what milk prices will be like next year.
We know that we've got a really competitive product offering, and we know that we think we can aggressively compete for milk and keep our volume up. We'll wait and see what milk prices do.
We'll wait and see what commodity markets do, but we think that we've positioned the business in a good place to mitigate as many of those headwinds as possible. Ultimately, we'll wait and see what both the commodity price and the farmgate milk price do.
Phil Kimber
Phil, Phil.
Gunther Burghardt
Obviously, there's a reset that occurs when opening farmgate milk pricing is announced and then negotiated. I think it's too early to call that reset.
Obviously that depends on where the commodity cycle is as well. I think as Pete described the result is correct, and I wouldn't read too much into what '27 looks like because of that reset moment on the 1st
Pete Findlay
of July. What I would say is, Phil, if you go back to our strategy, we always thought that the long-term bulk earnings average was between $30 to $40 million.
We played out at the top end of that this year. We might play at the bottom end next year, but ultimately, if you think about the progression of our branded business, from $200 million earnings last year, $220 this year, you keep drawing that line, we think we're in a good position for the company to move forward with less reliance on that.
Having said that, we'll wait and see what the procurement season brings.
Phil Kimber
That was going to be my follow-up, because I think in the past, this year you're going to be north of that sort of range typically on bulk. I just wanted to understand, obviously branded's going to grow, you're saying, a lot stronger in '27 than it has really in '26, and it's growing at, let's call it 5% to 10% in earnings.
It was really just to understand that missing bulk piece, had you stepped out of that long-term range of 30 to 40, or that's still the best guide for us to use going forward?
Pete Findlay
I think it's probably the best guide to use, Phil. Yeah.
Phil Kimber
Yep. Then just one more for me, I'll let someone else ask a question.
I missed the effective tax rate. I think in the past you said it was going to be around 30, Gunther, and it was low in the first half, but it was also low in the first half last year.
Should we assume that it sort of normalizes back to that 30% for the full year, or will it be lower?
Gunther Burghardt
It should be pretty close to that, Phil. As I said, we do benefit from our R&D investments and the encouragement we get there.
We do have that one Frenchs Forest transaction, which for tax purposes, was recognized last year. You'll be pretty close to 30% by year end, and that's what I'd assume.
Pete Findlay
We'll have the odd benefit here and there,
Gunther Burghardt
but
Pete Findlay
yeah, I think that's the best thing to assume.
Phil Kimber
Awesome. Thanks.
I'll let someone else ask a question.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Josh Kannourakis from Barrenjoey.
Please go ahead.
Pete Findlay
Hey, Josh.
Josh Kannourakis
Perfect. Can you hear me okay?
Gunther Burghardt
Yep, we got you,
Pete Findlay
mate.
Josh Kannourakis
Awesome. Thank you.
Done on the results, firstly. Secondly, just in terms of the capital projects.
Obviously a bit of a step up, and you've noted pretty clearly around that shift or pivot into more growth-related capital projects. I may have missed it on the call, apologies if I did, but just in terms of can you be a bit more specific around just reminding us and investors just around when you are putting that capital in the ground, what's some of the historical returns and hurdles you're thinking about achieving for that will be?
Pete Findlay
Everything we do has got to be within a 3-year payback. We think that yeah, as we've compressed our footprint, we've seen growth take off in specific areas as well.
To be honest, we're fortunate that it's taken off in the areas we thought it would take off. We actually have been investing in milk-based beverage capability and yogurt capability, but what we're excited about is that the growth is probably more than what we thought over a medium to long-term picture.
We will accelerate our capital investment to meet that demand, and the demand's happening both here and overseas. The other thing obviously I would say there is cream cheese as well.
The demand's happening both here and overseas, and so we think we need to move pretty aggressively to meet that demand. We think that all of the global trends and everything we're seeing, we think that demand will be in place for the next 5 to 10 years minimum.
We will take some aggressive approaches, but we will look for payback within 3 years. We've already signed off on some of that capital expenditure.
We're moving quickly. We have full support of our large customers to do that.
They're wanting us to do it. We think that that probably makes us a little bit of an outlier in Australia, to be brutally honest, which we think works for us as well.
Some of our competitors may not be making that same aggressive capital spend that we are.
Gunther Burghardt
I think Pete's, Pete's example of the pouch lines really interesting is 18 months ago, we talked about going live on our second yogurt pouch line. It's pretty full now.
We got another one coming in June, July that will go live on and in the nick of time, I'd say. I think there's a national capacity constraint in yogurt, and we need to invest to make sure we're positioned for what we think is a very long-term trend that favors this category.
Pete Findlay
We've been doing some investment around optimizing what we've got, but we're in the process of making step-change investments.
Josh Kannourakis
That's helpful.
Pete Findlay
And Josh, they're within the numbers we've talked about today.
Josh Kannourakis
Yeah. That's right.
No, I understand. I guess it's more so just as we know from prior things when people upgrade their CapEx, that maybe not today, but more so in the '28, '29 beyond, that obviously those investments come with corresponding uplifts in EBITDA.
Pete Findlay
The nice thing is, Josh, that we're not investing maintenance capital in sites that weren't of key importance. We've lost seven seven sites.
We're refocusing the sites we want to be in. That means I'm not paying $5 million to do a waste disposal system in a site that doesn't really have the returns that we would like.
I can actually spend that money on a high-end yogurt plant or a high-end milk-based beverage plant or a new spreads line, and that's where we have our margins. It's created a far more focused view of the workforce, where we want to invest and where we want to grow.
Josh Kannourakis
Right. Then just second one just in terms of other side of investment, the other flip of the coin in terms of M&A and in inorganic growth.
Obviously, there's a lot of focus around Fonterra, as we know, and I'd be interested in some thoughts on what you think any impact that's had to the market. More importantly, how should we think about your framework around M&A now?
What are some of the areas you're open to looking at? Are there any particular gaps you feel like you need to fill here, or leaning more into sort of potential offshore things?
Is there any other incremental sort of context you can give investors around just how you're shaping your thought process around future M&A from here, especially given I guess the balance sheet strength that's becoming much bigger possibility again?
Barry Irvin
Josh, it's Barry here. As you'd be aware, we're always careful in terms of the public statements we make around M&A.
Obviously everyone was very aware that we were interested in the Fonterra business, particularly the Australian, New Zealand business, and we were not successful in acquiring that. We congratulate Lactalis on acquiring, and indeed congratulate Fonterra on the price they achieved in the sale of that business.
I think it does represent some consolidation in the Australian dairy industry, which we have said is necessary. Whilst we might have preferred that it was us doing that consolidation, we would expect that some consolidation will occur.
I think, we are not really seeing any of that activity occur yet in the marketplace because of course that transaction has still to be settled and go through a transition process that we think will obviously be quite a significant one. We could see value in the acquisition of Fonterra, but equally, we're extraordinarily comfortable with the infrastructure we have and the brand portfolio we have and the opportunities that presents.
As I think I've said elsewhere that the completeness of this business in terms of the assets that it has is probably as strong as I have ever seen it, which means that what we do is look at opportunities in adjacencies in our core as well. We stay alert to it as we always have.
We think there are some opportunities out there in M&A, but too early to make any specific comments on where we might be directing our focus in that case. I think people are very aware that my view is always one of either increasing the scale of what we do or adding logical adjacencies to what we do.
That's how we've operated M&A for a very long time. I think the difference with where we are now is that the team is not looking at M&A in terms of trying to fill a gap in our business.
Our business is a very complete and very capable business in its own right. Obviously, if we see good, strong M&A opportunity, as it has been in the past, we'll always think about how we can add further value into that at the right price, Josh, which is always my focus, obviously.
Pete, I don't know whether you want to add anything to that.
Pete Findlay
No, just I wasn't aware that Fonterra had been sold, Josh.
Josh Kannourakis
[Laughter] Well.
Barry Irvin
You've schooled me in on something today. Yeah.
Sorry, I did pick that up.
Pete Findlay
Not bad. All
Josh Kannourakis
right.
Barry Irvin
No,
Josh Kannourakis
that's that's makes sense. I I think I think the team,
Pete Findlay
I think we've got a terrific team who's good at through that transformation change that we've done, I think we've got a great team that's good at at at adapting asset bases, footprints, integrating, doing systems rollouts. I think that we've certainly got I feel very comfortable with the capability of the people we've got in our business that if if an opportunity did arise, that we would be able to take full advantage of it.
Josh Kannourakis
Got it. Just final add-on, and then I'll hand over.
Just so in terms of capacity, obviously you still do have a very significant distribution network within there. When you think about both the infrastructure installed, but also the capacity, does that lead itself to sort of those sort of opportunistic branded sort of bolt-ons over time?
Maybe just a chat with, where are you at in terms of what you think the capacity for it additionally adding on that sort of incremental volume in the branded?
Pete Findlay
Absolutely. We really want to focus on our capacity in those key growth areas, and that's why, to Barry's point, we've got an enormous amount of organic growth ahead of us.
At the same time, we've got a terrific distribution network. We've got great systems and great processes.
We've got all the head-office infrastructure you would expect. The interesting thing, Josh, is as a lot of people talk about AI and bot technology and all the rest of it, but we can push much more business through our shared services functions, through our safety functions, through our customer service functions, through our logistics functions, purely through robotic process automation and some of the smarts that we're starting to implement.
I actually think that potentially, the scope for synergies in the new world is as great as what I've ever seen it before. If we can find something really adjacent, I think that our ability to get more out of that opportunity than we've seen even historically is very much there.
Josh Kannourakis
Right. Thanks, Barry, Pete, and Gunter.
Appreciate your time, and I'll hand over to someone else.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Richard Barwick with CLSA.
Please go ahead. Oh,
Richard Barwick
good morning, guys. Just if you can refer to that slide 12, I've got a couple of questions there.
You've gained material share within fresh milk, so that's great, moved from 12% to 15%. You've lost share in milk-based beverages and spreads.
I'm just making a comparison with the same or the corresponding slide that you presented back in August. The other thing I've looked at is if you look at the weighted average growth across those key categories, and I realize this is an MAT number and it's retail, but you've got that sort of branded business across those categories growing at 7%.
Now, if I contrast that with what you've delivered in your branded revenue growth across the same timeframe, it's only 2.3%. Albeit you've obviously last 6 months have been stronger at closer to 5.
I just wanted to get a sense there. The numbers would look like you are losing some share, you're not keeping up with the market rate of growth, and also just contrasting the growth rates.
Is there an issue here, or is there a difference between what the retailers would be posting in terms of sales growth? Are they taking increased margin relative to suppliers?
There's a bunch of questions packaged in there, but hopefully, that makes sense. Love to hear your thoughts.
Pete Findlay
Absolutely. It's a good question.
It's a bit hard to reconcile everything. What you've got in that chart is value, and it's value within the key supermarkets.
It doesn't include the discounters. It doesn't include a lot of convenience and unstructured markets, and it doesn't include a lot of food service, which we sell through.
If you have a look at that, spreads, we're slightly down. Spreads is an interesting one.
Our peanut butter and Vegemite are actually in pretty good health. Vegemite hasn't got huge amounts of growth.
It sort of runs flat. It's more of a value play.
We've had some growth there. Peanut butter, we've had some growth through volume and value.
Where we've fallen down against the categories, we did have a brand called B-honey, which we delisted. It just wasn't part of our focused and simplified strategy.
I think the honey category is a really nice place to play in within spreads, but we didn't think we had a winning advantage there, we delisted honey. That's counted against us, we're no longer in honey.
Also the category growth's been driven by treat spreads, which is predominantly chocolate treat spreads and Nutella in particular, Ferrero Rocher. We actually got pretty good growth, and we're pretty happy with how we've gone directly against peanut butter.
Yogurt, we've had really good growth and we're very happy with that. We're back at number one for volume.
We slipped away from number one for volume, back at number one for volume for the last quarter. I think back in front on value in the last quarter.
We're really happy about our yogurt performance. Milk-based beverages, we are trailing the market.
We grew both volume and value. It's highly competitive at the moment.
We've come out with our protein offerings probably a little bit later than what we would have liked against some of our competitors. We'll see how that plays out in the second half, Richard.
We're really happy with our offering now and how we're going to market, and we've got some really good plans in place. Overall, we're not a slave to market share.
You've got to be really careful around pure market share data because you can pump up your market share to the detriment of bottom-line profitability quite significantly. We won't be a slave to market share, but you're right.
We do like to ensure that we're positioning ourselves well for a long-term, sustainable, profitable growth, and we're pretty happy across all of those. Albeit, we would probably like to be growing a little bit quicker in milk-based beverages.
Richard Barwick
You also, sort of picking up a particular word, you said it was reasonably constrained market for branded. Whereas, again, I would contend that 7% growth across those categories is actually pretty buoyant.
You also talked to some great category trends, consumer trends underpinning these. Can you sort of reconcile that as well?
Because would you expect the market to be stronger than what it's looking at now? Or just trying to put the different pieces of the puzzle together, please.
Pete Findlay
I think when I talked about supply-constrained. We would love to have more yogurt capacity.
That's why we're about to spend a significant amount of money on yogurt
Richard Barwick
capacity.
Pete Findlay
We're the biggest yogurt factory in Australia, and we're not able to service the market, and no one is. If you walk up and down your Coles and Woolworths aisles or Metcash aisles or ALDI or Costco, there is significant yogurt shortages, which is why we've got a new 5,000-ton pouch line coming online in 3 months' time and why we will look to make significant investment.
We just actually can't make enough yogurt both for our domestic and international markets. We've moved back into number one on a volume and share basis in the last quarter.
We're really happy with how our launches are going. We just need to be able to make more, and we've got our factory running absolutely as hard as we can run it.
That's why we'll be bringing on a fair bit more capacity over the next 18 months.
Richard Barwick
Then more broadly across the other categories, all I'm trying to get a sense of is where the market's tracking today. Should we be expecting sort of a continuation of that same momentum, or do you think there's grounds to say that the market rates of growth should lift?
Pete Findlay
No, no. I did show you the last 2022 to 2025 volume trends in our presentation on yogurt and milk-based beverages.
That was running at I think 5% volume growth. I think that's growing faster than that now, and I think it will continue to grow faster.
I envisage that we will get really strong growth out of those categories for at least the next sort of couple of years. Might steady down after that, but it will continue to grow fast off the wellness drive.
We think we've had a bit of a rebound in juice this year. We're pretty happy with that.
We think that there's some interesting facets to our juice business, but predominantly it'll be milk-based beverages, yogurt with a bit of white milk that will drive our business forward, mainly because of those benefits people are seeing in dairy.
Richard Barwick
Yep. Okay.
All right. That is all very helpful.
Thank you.
Pete Findlay
Thanks, hon.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Evan Karatzas with UBS.
Please go ahead.
Evan Karatzas
Hi all. Hi, guys.
Just juggling a few calls, apologies if these have been asked. Maybe it's an extension of that sort of previous question.
I think about fresh white milk, yogurt, milk-based, these are three largest categories. They're all growing probably above the broader branded.
Where are you, I guess, underperforming that's meaning that the overall branded revenue growth is just 5%, if that's makes sense?
Pete Findlay
Evan, I actually don't think we are underperforming. We're growing our top line at 5%, which if you do a little scan of consumer goods, that's actually pretty good result over the last couple of years in a pretty tight marketplace.
I actually don't think 5% growth is underperforming. We would be performing better if we had more capacity around yogurt.
I think that 5% is sort of what we said, this is a very mature consumer goods business. That 5% to 7% growth is actually straight online with our strategy.
That's my response to that question.
Evan Karatzas
Sorry, Pete. Underperforming's not the right word.
It was more just it just looks like
Pete Findlay
Yeah, I think it's pretty poor choice of words, Evan. [Laughter]
Evan Karatzas
Yeah. Sorry, apologies.
It was just more your big categories seem to be performing stronger than that 5%. I was just wanting to know which categories
Pete Findlay
Yeah, don't forget, Evan, in our business, we have a large contract cheese processing and manufacturing business. That's declined because of cheese volumes dropping in Australia in the areas we play in.
What you'll find is that cheese at the moment, Woolworths have come out with a really attractive proposition at $9.50, a non-branded proposition. We don't do that cheese volume.
That's done by a competitor of ours. We do other cheese for them, but we're seeing significant shifts in volume down there.
Our contract packing business has gone back in volume this year. About
Gunther Burghardt
5% decline in cheese volumes in the first half, Evan. That's tolling business for us.
Evan Karatzas
Yeah. No, so, that was what I was trying to get to.
Pete Findlay
I
Evan Karatzas
was saying you're performing well in these key categories, and that's driving margin expansion. Just trying to understand where was the [unclear].
Pete Findlay
Which is part of our strategy, Evan.
Evan Karatzas
Yeah.
Barry Irvin
I think it's Barry here. I think, Evan, one of the difficult that I know when people look at that branded category, they don't see the cheese cut, pack, and processing.
As you would know, if you looked at that piece of business over an extended period of time, that has been a challenging piece of our business that sits in the branded category. If you took it out, you would see a different picture in that area.
It's a little the same as if you go back in the bulk area where infant formula nutritionals used to perform so well, and that came out. Hence, the decision to consolidate Strathmerton into Ridge Street, because really, if we look back at what that cutting, packing, and processing business used to be in terms of volume and indeed our leading position in the market, there's been additional capacity coming over the years that has meant that the margins there have been somewhat challenged.
The decision there is to therefore consolidate. Because that fits in the branded business, it can skew the picture.
I understand what the puzzle is, if you like, as you're trying to work out.
Pete Findlay
Evan, that also pulls down on that EBITDA margin at the bottom end. People look at our EBITDA margin sort of that 7% range and go, "It's low."
It's actually pulled down by that $500 million of
Barry Irvin
cut-and-pack
Pete Findlay
processing.
Gunther Burghardt
I think the final thing I'd just add, Evan, for some color there is, juice has been an interesting category. We're number two in juice with Daily Juice, with Juice Brothers, with Mildura.
The category is showing 8% growth there in RSV in the majors. What's really happening there is that 12, 18 months ago, we had a shortage of juice in this country from sort of concentrate, and that has alleviated.
What's happening inside the category is that volume growth is even stronger, but price competition is elevated in juice. There's sort of two offsetting factors in that juice category.
We remain committed to it, but the balance between volume and value in juice, it's a very competitive category like cheese, as Pete talked about.
Evan Karatzas
Yeah. No, that's really good, guys.
You've answered that clearly. I was, as I said, I was just trying to understand what was dragging
Pete Findlay
down the growth, and
Gunther Burghardt
now you've answered
Evan Karatzas
that specifically. Cool.
Okay. Then maybe just a quick extension of that.
You sort of touched on the margin profile. You've got it now above or at 7%, I should say.
Just how you guys are thinking about this internally around the branded margins. Conscious of your comments before, some of the lower margin product manufacturing, contract manufacturing starting to drop away.
You're moving more into the higher margin. How are you guys thinking about sort of the margin profile over the next 2 to 3 years for that branded segment?
Gunther Burghardt
It's a great question, Evan. I think, we talked about these big investments we're making in the second half and what they mean for the future.
As you look at things like this cheese consolidation to Ridge Street, we want to continue to be a great toll manufacturer of cheese, for example, but doing it with one big super site rather than two. It has a huge impact on margin.
If I look forward to F '27 and what we've done in peanuts and what we're doing in Laverton and what we're doing with the cheese business, I'd sort of see gross margin accelerating back up to 100 basis points of growth or more in branded. You could easily, if you look over the last 2, 3 years, branded's been growing about between $5, $10, $20 million a year in EBITDA.
We now think, with these big programs and our margin expansion, that accelerates. If we do $220 million this year, can it be $250, $260 next year, right?
That way, even if the bulk business goes from being very high, $50 million this year or 45, even if it goes to the bottom end of the range at 30 or even a little bit below, it's the branded acceleration through margin growth next year that gives us confidence. We do expect that acceleration to be there, and we expect it to be margin-driven and delivered by the investments we're making today.
Evan Karatzas
No, that's really interesting. All right.
Appreciate all your comments and color there. Thanks, all.
Gunther Burghardt
Thanks, Evan.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Jonathan Snape with Bell Potter.
Please go ahead.
Jonathan Snape
Yeah. Hi, guys.
Can you hear me okay?
Gunther Burghardt
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Snape
Great. Look, can I just come back on something maybe what Phil was asking around earlier on the bulk performance?
Because if I look at all the parts, everyone associates you as a skim company, skim milk powder. I think from your last strategy day, you kind of highlighted you had 35-odd thousand tons of that stuff to move every year, and the price was down probably somewhere around about 6% year on year.
Even if you'd sold them all in June, you wouldn't be up in skim. It would be flat to down by my calcs.
The farmgate costs are up 8% to 10%. By all mathematical equations, you should be down year on year in bulk, but you're up 68%.
There's something else moving in there. I guess one of the things that I look at is there's these prices like MPC, WPC, particularly the high-grade stuff, the pricing's up a lot year on year.
Some of those food-grade products have almost doubled, which is in stark contrast to what's going on in skim. What I'm trying to figure out is how exposed are you to these other, I guess, skim derivatives?
How quickly have you been able to shift the business, whether it's mods, MPC, WPC, I don't know, cream cheese, all these sorts of things, as opposed to skim? Because it looks like you've kind of step-changed that mix in the portfolio relative to where it was maybe 3 years ago, and it's insulated you quite a lot from what's been going on elsewhere in the market.
Is that an accurate description?
Gunther Burghardt
Jonathan, I'll let Pete answer the question, but I'd like when you answer your own question. It's fantastic.
[Laughter] And I think your analysis of our bulk business is always spot on, mate. I'll let Pete give you the detail.
Pete Findlay
When we went through '23, '24, Jonathan, with that large dislocation between farmgate milk price and commodity prices, which we sat down and said, "Well, how do we try and change this a little bit?" We did actually increase our capability around those powders that you talked about, and that was amazing amount of work done by our bulk team to identify that global trends might mean that demand for those higher protein ingredients would increase.
We did that work back in '24, and I think, it's certainly helped us in this year where those prices, you're right, have stayed resilient. I think they'll probably be a little bit more resilient for sometime to come.
Obviously, that changes your mix of that protein powder pretty significantly because you concentrate a lot more of your skim to get those higher protein specs that can be used in drinks and in yogurts and all sorts of things internationally, and here domestically. We also are using more of that product in our own domestic business as well.
It's not material yet, but I suspect that as we increase our capability around protein yogurt and protein drinks, it will become significant. You're pretty much right.
Gunther Burghardt
Yeah. Pete, maybe the only other thing to add is, yes, you're right, Jonathan, milk protein concentrate is being extraordinarily important to us.
Whilst we mentioned it slightly, we've only touched on it, that asset utilization around bulk and the toll manufacture that we do has been important to us. It helps us in a number of ways.
Obviously, it helps us with margin, but also helps us with conversion costs over the overall site. Toll manufacturing has been good for us in the year just gone, and continues to be an important part of what we do there.
Then the only other thing I would add to that is that our branded cream cheese portfolio is going very well in Southeast Asia and Middle East, and that obviously drags volume through our bulk facilities. That cream cheese higher protein value mix is something that we benefit from.
Jonathan Snape
Because that was kind of going to be my second question. If I look at your revenues and obviously you've got your put-throughs like your intercompany transfers, which is I guess mostly moving from your bulk into your branded, that's 55% of the bulk's sales this year looks like it's gone internally.
If I went back a few years ago, it was more like 35%. How much milk these days are you actually putting into kind of generic commodities?
Is it much at all? Because it does look like it's changed quite a lot
Pete Findlay
in the last [unclear]. You're right.
That was always part of the strategy, Jonathan, to link the two businesses together, and so to try and put as much of that commodity milk into branded as we could. It's still mostly fat that goes in.
We've got a fair bit of fat that goes through the bulk business into the branded business either through domestic cream and culinary, particularly in the food service where we're doing well, or into that export cream cheese business, which is going very, very well. We've still got a fair chunk of the protein coming back out through the commodity business.
We're just putting it to higher-value items. That interconnectivity is something that we've always been working on.
Jonathan Snape
Yeah. Great.
Look, Gunther, just one question around the balance sheet and I guess the debt position. I think I heard you right, 240-ish by year end for the headline debt number.
Those off-balance-sheet facilities have been coming down pretty consistently in terms of the utilization. Obviously, debt's debt, whether it's off-balance-sheet or on-balance-sheet.
Where do you expect that kind of number to land? Because if I'm doing the numbers right, it's probably the lowest it's been since the facility was opened.
Is it something that keeps winding down, or do you dip back into it?
Gunther Burghardt
In general, there has been, you're right, Jonathan, that trend to winding back the receivables facility, and over the long term, you'd expect that to continue absent any M&A, and Barry and Pete opined on M&A opportunities. The only other thing I'd say is remember that the interest rates that we have with our banking partners have a tiered approach.
There can always be seasonal fluctuations if we decide to dial it up to make sure we're paying the right interest rate in the 12 months forward. The answer is long-term continues to go down unless M&A or other things justify it.
Could you see a spike if we're really close to an interest rate tier and we want to get there? Maybe.
Pete Findlay
Yep. All right.
Jonathan Snape
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Mark Topy with Select Equities.
Please go ahead.
Mark Topy
Good afternoon. First question just to return to bulk and maybe some context on the global environment.
Sort of watching the GDT movements in recent times, which seem to have been upwards, just wondering if you might comment on how we read that, and how you're seeing the global context. Are we seeing a sort of an improvement from that bottom, or is there something else in that GDT, the latest numbers?
Pete Findlay
You're right, Topy. GDT has been rallying a little bit, more so around skim and protein.
We look at the supply as sort of global supply as a driver. Global demand is reasonably consistent, and we're still seeing strong supply markets, particularly out of the US.
We thought the GDT might have rallied a little bit as people might have been buying towards the bottom to potentially sort of inventory store at a better price. I think yeah, the last result actually probably surprised me a little bit because I think fundamentally, supply is still strong, and so with strong supply, I would expect prices to remain subdued.
I think Yeah.
Barry Irvin
I think so, Mark. Strong supply out of the US and expected continued strong supply out of the US at the moment, and then pretty strong supply out of Europe at the moment as well.
Look, we would, of course, like to see that GDT improving as we go into new milk pricing seasons, but I think it's a little too early to tell, but we're not seeing any signals that would make us feel overly confident or wanting to rely on that improvement at this stage, because, as Pete said, we spend a lot of our time trying to work out exactly where the supply is, and where the inventories are around the world, both officially and unofficially. At the moment, I think the foundations of those improvements are a little opaque at the moment.
We will continue to obviously, as we always do, watch it with interest, particularly coming into the new milk pricing season. I couldn't point you to a particular reason why we've seen those rises, which means that we are quite conservative as we observe them.
Mark Topy
It's a bit perplexing. Maybe the Aussie dollar feeding into that, how are you thinking about that at this point in time?
Oh,
Gunther Burghardt
we're sort of projecting, it's come up over 70 in terms of the dollar, Topy, and we kind of think that strength in the Australian dollar remains. We don't see anything that's going to cause the US dollar, for example, to strengthen against the Aussie dollar in the next 6 to 12 months.
Mark Topy
Very good. Then I wonder if you can expand on the international opportunities that you're seeing.
One of the other dairy companies got pretty excited this week about the aged care sector in China. Not that you're going to launch a product, a Bega-branded product, but the opportunities to act as a key supplier into that growing segment in the China and Asia market.
What do you see those opportunities and international growth more broadly?
Pete Findlay
We do quite a bit of business with China, Mark. We have a sales office there.
We do ingredients predominantly in China. We do a little bit of branded products.
Our focus is probably more on Southeast Asia and the Middle East from a branded perspective. We just think those markets are easier for us to get our arms around, and we have some really good partners in those countries, and we just want to remain focused, you can't do everything.
All the thematic trends that I talked about around healthspan and people being active and retaining strength and vitality into their older age, I completely agree with that company's opportunity, and I think it could well be significant without being close to it. We will look to move with those thematics, but we're not a powder business
Barry Irvin
at the branded end. No, I was going to say, I think, Mark, we've obviously been careful to retain all our capacity and capability in high-value nutritionals and in the likes of, yeah, formula.
Of course, when you talk about infant formula, you're really talking about that product or the components of that product also meeting the aged care market need. We're well-positioned as we were a number of years ago, I'm probably referring to it earlier around, while we were as a supplier to key brands into that market, I'd say we're still very well-positioned to
Pete Findlay
step up
Barry Irvin
to be a key supplier for our customers there. We've got a number of them, and we are seeing them
Pete Findlay
tend to perform,
Barry Irvin
yeah, we're seeing some improvement in performance in that area. It's always been, for us, one of those key capabilities that, even when that sort of market was slowing and challenged, we always were very careful to make sure we maintained the capacities and the capability in that area, we can certainly be a part of the opportunity in that part of the market.
Mark Topy
I guess that's what I was thinking about. If someone came to you and wanted a product for that market, that you'd certainly have that capability.
Then just lastly, just on the spend that you've made on the retail side, how do you see that going forward? I suppose it's sort of in line with the fact that we've seen some aggressive new competitors come into the particularly the sort of protein milk products areas.
I suppose I'm just wondering how they're going about sourcing milk, and is there a chase for milk that's been occurring in the sector that you see going forward? More particularly, the sort of dollars you need to spend to stay really competitive in what's become quite an aggressive and promotional sort of sector.
Pete Findlay
Sorry, Topy. That was around white milk or milk-based beverages?
Barry Irvin
Milk-based beverages. Yeah.
Mark Topy
Like flavored milk, like protein milks, we've seen Rokeby
Pete Findlay
Yeah.
Mark Topy
come in very, very aggressively and
Pete Findlay
It is. The good thing is there's plenty of growth there, I think there's good growth for all of the providers.
We think we've got great brands, we think we've got a good offering, we think we've got good innovation in pipeline. We just now need to back it up with good supply chain capability, which is why we will invest heavily in that space.
It's always competitive, Mark. It's been competitive in yogurt ever since we've got into the category.
Apart from Vegemite, the world's pretty competitive, we'll deal with that with great innovation and a great supply chain and great delivery,
Barry Irvin
yeah. I think from a milk procurement point of view, Mark, in the end, when you look at our entire milk procurement, it's not an enormous challenge in terms of procurement of that
Pete Findlay
It might be 6%, 7% of our pool.
Barry Irvin
Yeah,
Pete Findlay
8% of that milk pool.
Barry Irvin
As we've often discussed, what's our objective to get as much of that milk pool as possible going into branded or very high-value products,
Pete Findlay
so
Barry Irvin
that's a high-value product. We're happy to be directing milk into it.
Mark Topy
To follow up on that promotional spend, how should we be thinking about that going forward? Or are you going to ease back on that, or is it sort of maintained at the same sort of levels?
Gunther Burghardt
It's been interesting, and it differs by category. I'd say a couple of things, Mark.
The most important thing is Pete referred to some of the investments we're making in our promotional AI programs. They've been really good.
We need to have good offerings in terms of depth and frequency of promotions for our customers and our consumers, and these new tools are giving us even better visibility on how we can delight our customers and consumers. What that's translated into is in categories that are really growing fast like yogurt, you've seen us even lift some promotional price points where we've had great offers.
For example, our new protein pouches, the demand is so high on them that even as we've raised price, demand has risen, and the tool has helped us to sort of see that. Now, in categories like milk-based beverages, you do have a lot of competition, as Pete mentioned.
What's the right sort of balance between depth and frequency of promotions? We respond to that all the time.
What I'm excited about in milk-based beverages is even though, as Pete said, we were a little late to protein, where we have launched, like Dairy Farmers Smoothies, we came out several months ago, we're now doing a million bottles a month of Dairy Farmers protein smoothies. Very excited by the recent trends of launches that have happened in the last year and what they could mean for us, and we're using that tool to make sure we get the right promotional price points as we grow those.
Mark Topy
Right. Okay.
Just in total spend, you sort of see it sort of maintaining, just to get some
Gunther Burghardt
idea? Maintaining, yeah.
It's about maintaining, and it's puts and calls. Vegemite, you promote almost not at all.
Yogurt, capacity shortage nationally, as Pete said, we're trying to get the balance right between price and volume. Then milk-based beverages, we're investing in some of the new categories.
What you see is that some of the beverages that had more sugar, for example, are in decline, and the protein and better-for-you products are in growth, and so we tailor our investment that way. I'd say our total trade spend as a percentage of sales is fairly constant year over year, just different by category.
Mark Topy
Got it. Okay.
Terrific. Thanks for those answers.
Operator
Thank you. Unfortunately, we do not have time for any further questions and must conclude the call as scheduled.
I'll now hand back to Mr. Irvin for any closing remarks.
Barry Irvin
Thank you, everyone. Given that we are over time, I'll limit my remarks to thanking the shareholders for their ongoing support.
I'm very pleased to be delivering this first-half result, and I think you can all understand from our perspective the enthusiasm and the momentum we have for the business. We look forward to chatting to you in the full year and talking about what we expect to be a very good performance for the full year.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today.
Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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