Bubs Australia Ltd.

Bubs Australia Ltd.

0.09
AUD
0.00
(0.00%)
-0.01EPS
68.85MMarket Cap
Mar 01Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 27, 2026

Joe Coote

will attract a higher margin, and so that's the subcategory of the broader category. On regulatory and geopolitical, we are watching with interest interest rates environment, currency with regards to US, with the Aussie currently spot rate a little over 70.

We're watching that. A lot of volatility there.

We did watch the recent High Court decision in the US, and we are [happy with?] our position in the US in relation to tariffs.

Finally, competitors entering globally to quality issues in our industry. They're being managed and work in our quality systems, and we continue to move forward on the basis of that as Bubs and obviously from our Australian source.

To summarize, we feel very happy our brand resonates strongly with our target consumers. We operate in developing those markets, and finally, we have an attractive margin structure given we have the export...

Going into the US market and value growth in the half, we have worked very hard at the overall category. We are fortunate to participate in that premium natural category with total category only up 3%.

We are a fairly, we're 8%, and so in terms of then the retailers that we look to work with, we've done some great work and we've just where Target will increase stores, will increase the number of products that we have in stores. Walmart very pleasingly were stepping up very significantly in store count and also the number very pleased to note that we have ranging at Sprouts, which is one of the top premium natural banners.

It's the club element of that business, and we've secured ranging at Sam's Club. If at February this year, we were a little over 5,500 stores, we're now going into a site by the end of the year, we're forecasting to be over 8,500 stores with those addi-...

We're going into a very exciting time where the business will work through the in- as we move forward. During the half, we did cycle through some did undertake an air freight program.

I'm very proud that the team executed that very well operationally with retailers with these additional ranging outcomes that we've secured. With the new market consumers, we are moving more and more to some of the next-generation you've got exposure to Reddit.

AI is becoming a real reality in search, and so and we feel really good going forward in relation to our prospects in the US. Moving through to China, it's encouraging performance in China.

Period has been concentrated in the in the second and third-tier cities where we are seeing a preference some of the con- very happy that we're running a very strong business in China, great team, again, some of the meat or imported product because we have a great team, we're doing well. Interestingly, in a little bit of additional stock sitting in the trade, we've run that down so our our sell-out in half.

We're very pleased with the channel performance. The online-to-offline is going great guns for us.

We've we've secured an additional 77 percentage of CBEC, which is the imported product. We've maintained our number one position on Tmall, and we have which is now and then coming into the second half, we believe we're well set for sustained growth in China with O2O and CBEC both both showing strong growth.

Thank you. Australia, we're very focused on investing to re-establish.

We've maintained our number one goat position. We we we need to do better in Australia.

We're working on that. Advertising promotion set at about 8% of net sales.

In the second half, that that's been up-weighted to 12. A little bit of price activity, which has been well received by our consumers and retailers.

Shelf availability as we've worked through the stock rationing, and we feel really well set to see I would note also that we did discontinue our food portfolio in the half, and so we're very and and as we go forward, we believe we will be cycling into stronger performance in our core home market of Australia. Our final segment is our rest of world segment.

Again, rationing. Additionally, we did have some regulatory challenges, particularly in the Vietnam market, requirements, we've been very diligent to work that through with our distributor partner, Ms.

Chau. Build a relationship.

That business has a great capability in healthcare professionals where we will be reaching the the parents that will be great customers for Bubs. During some of the We are active on some of the very modern platforms.

Up there on the right, there's actually a picture of Mom on TikTok. We do a number of in-store activations, so that other picture is a in-store activation.

Japan continues to be a strong market for Bubs, and then Malaysia is an emerging market. Has been resilient against some of the challenges, and again, we feel positive moving forward with our positions.

If we tab, and as we tab, I'll hand over to Naomi [Blue?] our CFO, and she'll take us through...

Thank you

Naomi Verloop

everyone, and really pleased to be here today. If we could just tab across to the income...

Looking at the P&L, the great takeaway here is our underlying EBITDA result, which [improved?] 0.7 million on the prior corresponding period.

The EBITDA reported number prior corresponding period. The revenue increase in the USA was the major driver.

Overall, revenues were up by 14% versus the prior corresponding period. Held up surprisingly well despite the impacts of air freight and tariffs.

The product mix in terms of more sales being sold through into the USA allowed us the additional tariffs and air freight we incurred. Operating expenses came in million versus 25.2, and this was primarily due to the completion of during the year at $4.4 million on an underlying basis, which was a great result for Bubs.

Next. The key takeaway on the balance sheet is that it has increased from $20.1 million to $28.1 million that will carry on for the next half.

We expect that number to be approximately $8 to the end of this financial year. You can see trade and other receivables, 0.7 million, that is in line with the increase in revenues.

Trade and other payables, and that is largely due to extra payments to suppliers for raw materials Australian farms. You'll also see there that our right-of-use assets have increased up to for lease at our Deloraine Dairy facility, which is our manufacturing and office [facility?]

. Move across now to cash flow.

Takeaway here on the cash flow is obviously the net cash used in operating activities, versus an outflow of $0.5 million at the half last year. This was all process, which we are still currently in the middle of, and as I mentioned earlier, we will...

One of the key takeaways subsequent to December of 2025 is NAB to extend the limit on our working capital facility, so that has and will be very helpful as we go through this inventory rebuild process. Across now to margin.

We can see that margin slightly from the 50%, but well above the guidance we were giving of the 40% to 45% and air freight, which has been significant. Despite those factors, able to deliver more of our revenues in the USA market, which are at a higher margin.

As we cycle through to the next half, air freight and tariffs, and so we still expect margins to come in at the 40% to 40% get to the end of the year. Moving across to net working capital.

Net working capital has gone up. We are landing in at 33.

[unclear] versus 23.2. This all relates to the inventory build.

You can see, however, that the average net working capital as a percentage of sales has dropped down to 20 at H2 FY 2025 and then at H1 it was 30.7 terms of delivering additional revenues against our working capital, and it just shows on an average basis versus our net working capital. Inventory came in, look at the chart just below, we were at 30.3 at the same point last year, you can see inventory as a percentage of sales is down to 26%.

We expect that to pair back on when we get to the end of the year. Moving now to the FY 2026...

You can see we landed last year on an underlying number of $0.6 million, million on an underlying basis by the end of this year, and our 0.5. The main impacts there are the air freight and penalty tariff, which we're $8 million.

We also have had a one-off payment from Alice and Willis in relation to million. We do not expect any further funds to be received in relation to this legal FY 2026 outlook that we've provided.

We do anticipate revenues to come in $25 million, reflects 22% to 27% growth on the prior corresponding period, getting that 40% to 45% range on gross profit that will be lower than alluded to at the beginning of the call. There's lots of moving pieces there.

We have additional air freight coming in, new product, and we are living in a very dynamic and changing world with Donald Trump and who knows dealing with at the moment. In terms of reported EBITDA, we're going to land in at between $9 million and $11 million.

That concludes the finance...

Joe Coote

Thanks, Naomi. If we could just tab through to summary page.

We will be showing you very regularly as we move forward. As I said at the deployment, we have active initiatives underway.

We are standing up a transformation office as we speak at our strategy update later in March, which we will confirm shortly, members in from offshore as well as some of the new roles that we have here in Melbourne at that point in time. Fair to say we feel very comfortable.

It's very crisp and clear, as very performance improvement initiatives, and I'll save further discussion on that for our strategy update. Of the initiatives that we have underway, some of these are very substantial, gone on for a number of years and some we have already concluded.

I'll just highlight research in China and the US to confirm our consumer target. It's very clear who those consumers are and it's very clear they align to the premium natural.

We've up-weighted our digital marketing activities to continue our presence on platforms like Meta, new platforms like TikTok, and particularly Reddit, which is driving a lot of the AI search that we're seeing. Explorers, they tend to be very savvy with the use of digital technology, and so arts that we're seeing.

Annie, our new global CMO, will share more of that when she across the portfolio optimization. We've really had stunning results from the very premium supermarket banner in China called Ole.

We really have got as well in our home market with Coles, Woolworths, and Chemist Warehouse. We have great ranging.

Now it's about the marketing to step it up and really get the sell-through. Share quite a bit on our product development roadmap in March.

There'll be some little adjacencies that we'll be looking at that can help us grow our business further. In supply chain, very clear dollar-in-the-bank example where we've got additional capacity and we're packing containers now, and we've got a $100,000 per annum of cash savings.

The next one down there in supply chain that's worked in sourcing of ingredients, the whey proteins that we use as well as the whole milk. Additionally, as from Australia can be challenging.

It's a long, thin supply chain. We have tariffs at the board.

Good thing is, well, to be participating within the economy in the US, we're doing a classic call bond and as we grow and outgrow, essentially, our capacity here in Australia, we have asset for Bubs. If we move across to enablers just to round out, we have a great team assembled.

Very excited to work with such a great group of people. Looking at our procurement area through an AI lens.

They're a US-based startup, I'm Additionally, though, we're very focused on some of the core processes that be safe every day, delivering high quality, meeting our promises to our retailers, and obviously driving our asset. Integrated business planning is another area of focus, particularly the balancing of supply and demand, and as we're a high-growth and then convert that back into capacities in terms of shipping, in terms of procurement, and in terms of I'll leave it there.

Happy to take questions. I'm very excited to showcase the great team that we have.

Maybe hand back for some questions. Thank you.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question on the... one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

That is star one if you wish to ask a question. Your line is open.

Philip Pepe

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the question and well done on the [progress?]

, particularly... You've got a slightly greater second-half bias than usual.

Is that because you're expecting second half to add revenue to what's already a strong US growth?

Naomi Verloop

On the second half, we are expecting a better performance in China due to those sell-in, sell-out rates, we should see an uptick in China. In particular, USA as well will grow further.

We're expecting a better half for the USA as well.

Philip Pepe

Have we started to see that

Naomi Verloop

Range review start? I'll hand over to Joe to answer that question.

Joe Coote

Phil, we have seen things tick up. The way the US business works, which I know you understand, is there's an annual range review outcome, and so that massive intake, particularly into Walmart and Target, is currently underway.

It's sitting in the warehouse. It's staged and it's ready to go.

The purchase orders are rolling in, and it's really up to how the consumer offtake goes, and then we'll replenish back to those stores. It's quite a big step-up, quite a challenging task to execute, but it will drive a step-up in our sales, absolutely.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Snape from Bell Potter. Your line is open.

Hey. Yes, we can.

Jonathan Snape

Great. Just to ask a quick one.

On the cost, obviously one component of that is probably going to be around a little longer than the other. Are you able to kind of split elements this air freight as opposed to tariffs?

Naomi Verloop

P&L slide. There's 1.8 million in air freight, and there was about 0.4 So that is tariff over and above the 10% that we incur on non-AU fresh milk that come from the Netherlands or New Zealand or another part of the world.

They are actually tariffed at a higher rate and as much higher.

Jonathan Snape

Flow into your second-half thinking, is the mix kind of the same, or does it start to move more towards tariffs given stock that was kind of already there, you didn't have the tariff?

Naomi Verloop

We're expecting a larger revenue number to come through in the second half. We've got this ranging happening done on that.

That means extra product, and we are going to need to still source from overseas to make Also, will also incur additional air freight, which will be at a higher level than this first half.

Jonathan Snape

Got it. It seems like when I look at all your peers, even some of the bigger ones, the China label to English label over the last 6 months, if not last 12 months, and traditionally, in that environment, not just from CBEC and O2O, but also from Daigou, are you seeing anything in the Daigou channel?

Interested in your thoughts there.

Joe Coote

We're not seeing a lot in Daigou. Shift to English label, and our team does a great job marketing on pleasing as well, we're in that general trade, but with the CBEC product.

If that continues, there it should be something that we benefit from, I would agree. I can't see that we've seen a lot of it at this point capability of the team they our products, and so, yeah, that could be another headwind.

Jonathan Snape

I guess some of these product scares, most of the I guess the recalls have happened from Europe. I guess benefits start to come maybe from some of that shifting down into regions where you haven't had major product recalls, like down here

Joe Coote

and It's mixed. The thing as a industry, the families that are in, our thoughts go first, and then second, just for our industry, yeah, these quality You do highlight the recall from Europe, there is also a separate one in the US.

It's essentially a quality-related issue. There is, I'd say, consternation amongst So we're working very hard with our customer service and marketing teams to reassure people that the Bubs products remain on our quality.

I would say that in pockets, we do see that our also say that in the US, some of the ranging outcomes that we've achieved that are so stellar in some of the people that aren't participating currently. With that said, it's a mixed bag, and, yeah, we really feel for these parents who are navigating these difficult times in our industry, and we prefer

Jonathan Snape

Great. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you do wish to ask a question on the... be announced.

That is star one if you wish to ask a question. There's no questions on the phone lines, I'd like to hand back.

Apologies, you have a question... Oh,

Philip Pepe

thank you. Good morning.

I just want to ask on the production side, how you're placed, and just give us a bit more insight into how you're ramming up for the inventory build. Get that, but I'm just wondering about your capability going forward to meet demand.

Joe Coote

Two aspects, the physical logistics, which has a fairly long, thin supply chain from Australia to, so that's one element. In the sort of production side, we essentially have a two-stage production in Dandenong, and that facility runs at about 40% to 60% of nameplate capacity basis, 6 days a week, and that facility's been operating very well over the past half, and that capacity there.

We work with a network of partners in terms of then of a network of supply partners across Victoria, and, again, they're doing great work and we ones is in the goat milk solids, and so some of that comes off-farm here in Victoria, and then we mentioned primarily the Netherlands and New Zealand. You put all that together, the outlook is positive.

In each of those steps to secure the goat solids, push it through the dryers, and then into the blending and canning to the US. It's a long, thin supply chain as I said at the start, so, but look, we're very confident that we were up in the US and we'll be able to secure the sales that present in these additional ranges we have in the US.

Philip Pepe

Great. Obviously to meet that demand.

Then just secondly, on the kind of goat milk sort of perception in China, there seems to have sort of been a little bit of up and down in terms of the at one point, goat milk was very very strong in terms of some of the other Are you sort of converting the consumers over even in the US to the goat milk product?

Joe Coote

Overall is one number and then it tends to be a higher percentage in the subcategory, the premium subcategory has higher. US is almost solely in that premium natural subcategory.

Official to Bubs in the US at the moment, it's about 3% of total market, which is about category. A percentage point there in because we're about a third of the market.

As you call out, has dropped back a little bit. It's a different sort of proposition in China.

It's been of decades, and beyond, I would suggest. We watch that carefully in China, but certainly goat participation in infant formula would be very beneficial.

We also have an adult goat product, Caprilac, in so something we're excited about. Then in Australia, goat, I think, runs at about 6% to 8% of category.

Those numbers from a total addressable market, and if we can collectively grow the goat participation, that's a really good metric to look at, and we look at it carefully.

Philip Pepe

On FX and any sort of implications there in terms of the sort of nudge up to the Aussie dollar

Joe Coote

where it's We're a company, we don't try and play the currency market, but in terms of our risk management strategy, I'll just hand over to

Naomi Verloop

AUD versus USD only sort of came in around the end of January and up into early around that 0.70 level now. We actually hedge all of our transactional exposure.

We'll be going through our budget process for FY 2027 and we'll have to obviously that rate is looking like, so that will have a subsequent effect on the revenues that we report coming the financials on a constant currency basis, we'll be able to see the true underlying performance.

Philip Pepe

Right. If I interpreted that, there's some crimping of margin then from the higher US dollar?

Naomi Verloop

Only on a reported basis, not within the result reported in the USA. Only on business.

Not transactional, because that'll hedge through. You'll be hedging through a higher rate, there will be an impact, but if it moves higher than 0.70, you're protected against 0.70, then you'll have the opposite effect.

Philip Pepe

That implies what you'd have over there or cash flow point of view?

Naomi Verloop

No. There's two separate FX impacts.

There's the transactional FX and there's the reported FX, which are two Sure.

Philip Pepe

All right, terrific. All right, well, that's helpful.

Thank you for that.

Naomi Verloop

No worries.

Operator

Press star followed by one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. That is star one.

Currently there are no further questions on the phone lines, I'd like to hand back.

Joe Coote

Attendance this morning, and we look forward to having follow-up discussions and see you at the...