Operator
Over to you now, Dennison.
Dennison Hambling
Thank you, Janine. Thanks very much.
Everybody, welcome to the first half '26 IMG Intelligent Monitoring Group half year results. Appreciate your time, particularly in reporting season in the first week.
We'll just go through a presentation today. Obviously, the financials are the key feature of the day, but also we'll can have a discussion about the business.
We'll go through the presentation. Probably ask you to just hold your questions to the end if you can.
Happy to take them though, and in the event that we don't answer them today or whatever, we can happily take things offline. Kicking straight into the result, we're actually pretty happy with this result.
I'd call it solid. Underlying EBITDA at $19.2 mil for the half.
Underlying operating cash flow continues to improve. For those that, granularly watch us, the very last 4C we did was the first quarter where we had just slightly positive cash.
As we have said consistently now, that first quarter and sort of is the weakest quarter of the year for us as it tends to be a rebuild after the end of the financial year for a lot of our customers in workbook. You can see therefore the second quarter being very strong cash again and tracking more, I guess, close closer to the P&L EBITDA stuff as we start to deliver on that work.
Underlying earnings growth for the half, 9.3%, obviously boosted by the acquisition of BNP and Western Advanced, and then organic growth in Australia of 8.3%. We'll probably talk about New Zealand a little bit today, but New Zealand did suffer a disappointing first quarter, and it surprised us a little bit in that we had a very good, and we have a very good pipeline there.
We had the end of a large series of multi-year sort of government work roll off, as we had expected. We had got some significant work starting, and then we got caught with a bit of a timing mismatch in that quarter.
It did extend longer than we thought, and ultimately, we were running underutilized for a period there through, which has now normalized. As we go now into the second half, the both the pipelines continue to lift, but the work is actually tracking back to plan.
There's a slide later on that we can get into, New Zealand's back on track, which will be part of helping us, through the to the second half and then ultimately on to the full year and guidance. I'd I'd probably will park that.
I'll come back to that when we talk about it explicitly. Pipeline, I think this is probably the real story.
When we bought ADT 2.5 years ago, we wanted to return it to preeminence, and we wanted to do that through commercial and enterprise work and leadership, and that pipeline just continues to build and build and build. It is a combination of, existing customers doing more work, taking on more more solutions and more sites, through to, having new customers join us, new projects, and new service contracts.
They're up another 36.6% on the quarter, I think it was $36.6 mil at the third sorry, the first end of the first quarter, and $49.8 at the end of this quarter. That pipeline is a revenue is effectively what we the pipeline we see turning into revenue over the next 12 months that we have today.
It's not a gross pipeline of what we what we have won in full. Acquisition of Tyco, like as we move forward into this next year, this will be a major feature.
Managed to get that signed up before the end of of last year. That's going to be a fantastic addition to our business.
I've just come off the back of a tour of those of of both New Zealand, but also that organization. For those that don't know, we have to be a little bit cautious at the moment about using the name, but effectively that is Wormald New Zealand that we've acquired there, which is fire services and monitoring.
That is just an outstanding business we're looking forward to having settled. We do have, though, to we've not yet got a final date on settlement.
It is determined totally by our counterparty, the seller there, who has a number of sort of legal structures and things that they have to deal with to move. We are pushing as fast and as hard as we can on that, but ultimately, we're a price and a time taker in terms of settlement.
We fully expect to get it in this financial year, and ideally sooner rather than later, but we can't do better at the moment than to give an expected date. We finished with good cash in the bank.
Obviously, we raised some money to make sure we we stay really healthily funded, plus with the acquisition facility, we're we're in great shape financially. Summary, as we work through this preso, we're on we're trading to budget, we're on track, and we're on track to deliver that, greater than 6.2 cents per share pro forma earnings.
Obviously, pro forma is just going to be impacted a little bit by what timing well then, sorry, the headline number will be impacted by the timing of when we actually get Tyco New Zealand in the books, but the underlying business is performing to plan on that. Quickly, just again to reiterate anybody new to the story, that this is a very defensive, stable, cash generative business at an underlying level.
We are effectively a monitoring and service business, doing what would equate to effectively repeat work. We now have, on the back of, a couple of years of building this business, a a scale platform.
We have both a platform internally in terms of the the systems we're running, but also a reach in terms of the workforce that we have to deploy into work directly across Australasia. We're now starting to have a pretty robust financial profile.
We just highlight the reach point here in the graph. Whilst it looks like there's a lot of things, that's actually positive.
Our our customers at the big end of town, who want security services and technical services, want us to be able to service them in their entirety. We're one of the few people, very few people that can actually claim to be able to do that, and that is what is leading to our, robust pipeline and growth that we are seeing come through.
Structurally, really we are simple. It probably looks more complex there than it actually is or feels to us.
Effectively, we've got, on the security side, one direct-to-customer business, ADT. We have that in New Zealand and Australia, both running separately with their own general managers.
We have a partner business in security, Signature Security, which is an old historic name in Australia, which runs standalone and and so sort of does deals with little security companies to help them grow. We have a wholesale security monitoring provider, IMS, which is essentially the base business that this journey started from the old Threat Protect back in the days, if you trace it right back.
Now, with the acquisition we announced to settle shortly, Tyco New Zealand, that gives us a Red Wolf Security, which is a direct-to-customer high-security business in New Zealand. I make the comment high security, it does works at the highest level, in government, with government, New Zealand government that is, around the world, which fit will fit into the ADT stable businesses in New Zealand.
We have a direct-to-customer business, Tyco, which is, as I've said, on the quiet, is Wormald, and that will that will sort of stand alone, but help us with commercial scale in New Zealand around around our security side as well. I won't spend any real time today on our vision and values.
For those that want to engage with me later offline, they are very important to me particularly around the kind of business that we're trying to build. To go to the results, I'll I'll hand over to Jason, and he can take you through the half, and I'll I'll dovetail with him.
Over to you, Jase.
Jason Elks
Thank you, Dennison. Good morning, everybody.
As we called out in the headline number, the underlying EBITDA is $19.2 million for the half with margin of 20% and growth on the prior half last year of 9.7%. The key callouts here are the profit before abnormal costs and amortization of $10.6 million, up again on the first half FY '25 by 36%.
Some abnormal costs in the EBITDA adjustment, which is the $4.6 million covering off some of the Tyco New Zealand acquisition costs, historic share share-based payments, and the impairment of receivables. When we look through sort of the key numbers, revenue is strong, growth on last year; underlying gross profit up again versus the first half; underlying EBITDA up versus the first half; depreciation and leases there, the so giving us an operating EBIT of $16.6; and then if we work back up from the reported profit and loss, adding back the amortization and the abnormals, we get to $10.6 profit after tax there, which is a good good result, strong result compared to the first half last year.
Dennison, we'll go to the next slide. Sorry.
Yep. Sorry, yeah.
All right, reported EBITDA, $14.7. We had the impairment of receivables, something that we will look in the new financial year to rework how we normalize that receivables sort of gap.
No impairment of assets this year versus the first half of last year, which is strong testament that, yeah, our financials are working well and that all of our cash-generating units are the correct configuration and goodwill. Recovery business acquisition integration costs, $2 million for the half, largely acquisition activity and a little bit of restructuring, some of which in the New Zealand business.
Interest income, and then share-based expenses, which is historical shares exercised there, giving us a underlying EBITDA at $19.2 million. Again, you can see that's up on the first half of last year, playing into our being on track for our full year EBITDA guidance.
Breaking out the depreciation and amortization, in the stat reports, we've got $11 million made up of $9 million in cost of services, and $2 million outside, slightly up on the half as a comparative number for the half. Business depreciation, which is really just covering off all of our core PPE, stay-in-business items, business-as-usual items.
Lease depreciation is up on the half, but it's comparable to the June number. We added in motor vehicle leasing under AASB 16 allowances in the second half last year, you will see if you compare this to June, the actual lease depreciation is not that different.
It looks different to the half, but it's not different to the full year. Then that gives us $2.6 of depreciation, important to think about for the future.
Then in the intangible sort of amortization pieces, we've got the subscriber assets there, $2.8, and customer contract-based non-cash amortization there at $5.7, giving us $8.4 there, $11 for the total, again up on the half, but in line with the full year.
Dennison Hambling
Right. Now I'll jump in on the divisional, Jase.
Again, just breaking down the that core EBITDA into the components, you can see on the chart there 17 sorry, $19.2 breaks to $13 mil of that comes from Australia, so that's our real, driving entity or has been to this point really, and an underlying growth there at 8.3% half-on-half organic. That is us with the businesses we own that we have owned for 12 months, and their success, and not not including any of the impacts of the acquisition.
That's pretty consistent with the full year result last year. We're 8.2% organic growth for the FY '25, yet 8.3% this year.
Ultimately, what we are looking to see is that number starts to pick up over time as we drive, video services, in that commercial book, and that pipeline, translates through on to what is a fairly stable base. The acquisition earnings, impact there is is Wightfall and BMP, but also just including a full period of DBL.
Just had to also make sure we we cover off the full annualized effects, so that had 2.5. Then New Zealand, which you can see, was a was a very poor result in the first half of this year.
I'll just talk to that. As I've said, starting the year, the book was in great in good shape and it actually continues to be in fact, in provingly good shape, but we did have to deal with the wind-down of a contract.
That contract's actually MSD in New Zealand, which is the largest government department. They've been doing a lot of upgrade work over a number of years, and, government in New Zealand has been very austere across the board, not not just there.
We fully expected, that work to sort of come to more of a tail, more more back to more sort of service levels on an ongoing basis for a period. As a result, we had new work coming through.
One of the big pieces of work, just to verify for you, is Auckland Airport, for those that do go to New Zealand and know much about what's going on down there. We just suffered a slower startup there.
We expected it to start at this come back from from break and start this year, and it it sorry, from the June year, that is, and kick off, and it actually just got a bit delayed and delayed, on top of a number of other things. I I kind of put that down to the economy largely, like just decisions have been made, pipelines are being built, actioning and final sign-off to start delivering work is still a bit slow in New Zealand, and I think that's what you see here.
Not ideal, in a business like ours though, and in New Zealand particularly, we have where we have a fairly shallow book of major work. Australia is very different.
We've got a very wide, diverse book. You kind of have to ride through it if you're trying to build a business, which we've done, and then now, we've exited that, and the work that started is multi-year work and ultimately will go on to improve and increase the size of our service book, and ultimately pull the engine through.
Unfortunate. We have, though, also been going through quite the review of the New Zealand business.
Red Wolf coming in on the security side is a really positive thing for the for the whole business in New Zealand, the whole security business. Then obviously, having Wormald further in the mix will allow us to widen our commercial reach in New Zealand.
Wormald has about, nearly 30% of commercial business in New Zealand it touches with its fire suppression systems, which gives us a a starting run at, lifting that ADT commercial business, which would have a a negligible market share in New Zealand currently in commercial enterprise. As part of all of those things coming together, we have, done a real assessment.
We have had a general manager change in New Zealand too, which has taken place, and we're about to start a new a new person into ADT New Zealand who has a much different a different skill set, much more attuned around the commercial enterprise, high-security market, which would align closer to the kind of skill set that we had in Australia, which has allowed us to unlock that business. Other things going on in New Zealand, I think the economic environment is a bit is important to to turn out, but on top of that, you've had to had a 3G transition, which is, as we saw in Australia when we very first took over ADT years ago, very distracting.
It means, on a business like ours, you spend most of your time just focused on your existing customers and keeping them signed on and up to date with the technology, rather than being able to deploy your efforts to growth. That is now coming towards the back end.
The first 3G networks are shutting down, which, as we look forward, will be very positive things, as we've seen in Australia. We've also had our, first crop of ADT Guard sales, starting to become the rhythm they're starting to pick up.
In fact, we had our first ADT Guard event in New Zealand. Archibalds, again, for anyone who knows New Zealand, Archibalds Motors on Moorhouse Avenue in Christchurch, we deterred a theft there two weeks ago.
It's the first time in New Zealand we've stopped a crime from happening, which is, a key calling card for us to be able to deploy our our advanced security solutions. Not not a happy sort of result for the New Zealand guys to be sitting on, but actually, ironically, a lot of optimism as we move forward.
The the February number we expect to be up again on the numbers, that you can see on the chart we've got here. Again, when you take the half on half, that will go, quite some way to getting us it explains why we are on track to guidance and are happy with where we're at.
Back to you, Jase.
Jason Elks
Thanks, Dennison. Balance sheet, obviously, the key callouts, table's strong.
I think that's been true realistically since we refinanced this time last year. The cash position largely from the raise, but also demonstrative of actually building cash back in the business, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA for last year, 1.3%.
Nothing really to call out sort of here. Core working capital lifted by $2.2 million, but well-placed to charge on with our year this year.
Sort of cash flow table is a bit busy, but we wanted to just demonstrate that we are in a position of continuously growing our operating cash flows. This is sort of representative of the decision that ASIC made to allow us to no longer have to present 4Cs.
I think that's a good mark of a healthy cash flow in our business. You can see here that we generated an underlying operating cash flow of $9.4 million before non-recurring costs, which is up on the half for last year and shows that we will be in good stead for the upcoming year.
I think I made this point at the first quarter review, this has been a cash-based half. Everything that we have done this half has been with cash.
Acquisitions have been made with cash, and that certainly shows that we will have been closer to EBITDA in our cash flow this half than arguably in the other half prior. A little bit of abnormals, acquisition and equity raise costs around $1.5 million, a little bit of general restructuring costs of $0.5 million.
The investing activities at $12 million, $9.1 million, which was the acquisitions in cash again of Western Advance and BNP Securities, and then obviously, that little bit of tidy-up of Mammoth Security, getting the non-controlling interest out, and now Mammoth Security is wholly owned subsidiary. In the CapEx space again, you can see in the slide that half-on-half, our CapEx is lower than the same half last year, and the mix is roughly the same.
Stay-in-business CapEx is quite low. Our business doesn't have a lot of need for genuine CapEx.
Then the subscriber assets piece, you can see that's actually lower than the first half last year and, on average, is actually lower than the full year, and is scaling down, again in line with sort of the conversations that we've had around our CapEx outlook for a 12-month period. The only other interesting thing to call out, just to balance out the $12 million versus what we spent, is, as a one-off cash receipt, we received money back from changing our bank guarantees out of a cash-held position into a NAB-based facility.
Dennison Hambling
Yeah. That sits in our investing cash flow line, not our operating cash flow line, just to be super clear with people.
Jason Elks
Yep.
Dennison Hambling
Great. Thanks, Jase.
Look, we'll just go quickly through the corporate strategy and then open up for questions. Again, appreciate the time.
Look, obviously, we present this every time, but really what we're doing is we're looking to create the industry leader with a comparative advantage. We're doing that right back at the start of this journey, 4 and 5 years ago now for myself and some of the team through today is by actually investing and building a platform that's superior, leading in what we do, and then ultimately trying to get scale, which allows us to be the premium player and with brands that are superior, known by people like ADT.
In terms of the opportunity, what's really happening here, by luck, if we're to be straight with you about it, is that we've arrived into a business that was fragmented, unloved, with a pretty modest value proposition, in my opinion, certainly as you went down into resi-type security systems or basic intrusion systems, at a time when AI and camera technology and the underlying platforms have reached a level of maturity that they're able to be enabled, which is creating an entirely new opportunity set for us. Today, we are able to effectively use a camera like you can use a security guard today.
Because a security guard can't capture people, do anything other than really verify an event, and that's sort of by law and the way the industry works and has been regulated in Australasia, a camera can actually effectively do that at a significantly lower price if you enable it with the edge AI and the latest features. By realizing that, and acting upon that first, we have effectively trying to drive ourselves into a position of scale and advantage to really lead the deployment of that technology.
The opportunity set is significant, and the effect on society is even more so. Just to pause for a second, highlight an event: we had a residential event last week in Queensland.
We had a lovely property based on the east side of Brisbane where there was an 18-year-old child at home, the parents were away. We had two people come and scout the property at about 12:30 in the morning.
ADT Guard reacted, as is paid to do, and deterred them from breaking in. They left site and actually came back an hour and a half later and attacked the property from the other perimeter out the back.
ADT Guard also worked and did its job there and deterred them. Then ultimately, the police came by and was checking on the property for the rest of the night, and the property was safe and secured.
That would never have happened in the past. They would have gotten, who knows what they would have done.
They were clearly pretty intent on getting into that property. I'm proud to have seen our team do what we pay to do and actually keep it safe, which was a great result, and something that you'll hear more about no doubt as we go forward with the events we have.
Comparative advantage for us is our scale. We've got a unique reach and scale now.
Further than that, though, it's actually about using our scale to invest to make sure we're trusted. We have to really invest and be the highest certified, best player, best credentialed player, with the most advanced technology platforms and opportunities to add value.
We're very focused on these things, and that is essentially our business plan, so that we can build a really enduring, leading business. As and this really speaks to valuation here, is the point we keep trying to make is it's a very attractive business model.
Whilst the new customer does typically entail some labor, it would take us a little bit of time to come to your property and set up some cameras and the box and the edge AI to do it, once you're a customer, if we do our job like that family in Brisbane, I'd expect they'll be a customer for a long time. We'll need to service that system to make sure it works.
It needs to work 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. As technology evolves and changes, they're likely to stick with that too.
Given it offers a real value proposition, it becomes a very long, sticky, stable, and trusted relationship as we move forward, which implies a business of hopefully, quite some value. That's certainly what we see.
Talking to the pipeline again, we called out the pipeline for the first time in the first quarter at $36.6 million. I'd probably step back for a second and just make the point that when we bought ADT, the year before we bought it had done $2 million of revenue in this space, it wasn't just calling out a pipeline.
The size of that pipeline, given it didn't have a pipeline when we took it over, the first point we were trying to highlight when we've started to disclose this. Now what we're trying to make clear to everyone the market is that pipeline is growing really significantly, and it is diversified.
A little bit distinct to what we've experienced in New Zealand in this first half, the actual wider group pipeline, particularly out of Australia, is much more diversified. It's much wider spread, lots of industries, lots of players, lots of partners, and it's continuing to build at a rate that is very exciting for the team.
The conversations are very serious ones with very serious counterparties. In terms of video, we'd also like to sort of disclose for the first time, we've now been starting to deploy our ADT Guard, that's what would really refer to it as video direct remote monitoring video service.
If you call us for the service, you want the service, you'd ask for ADT Guard. Here, you can see the sort of gross trajectory that we're on.
For us, to this point, what we've really been focused on is the outcomes. We've arrested 44 as of today 44 perpetrators with the police in action committing a crime since we started this journey, only really a year ago.
On average, we're deterring over 15 likely criminal attempts at burglary every month. As these numbers build, the apparentness of what we are doing, the success of what we're doing, and ultimately, the value of what we're doing, will build too.
At the moment, it is still relatively small in our base, we're calling out, it's growing up towards 1% of our total, as we'll call them, lines or customers at the moment. That is accelerating, and you saw certainly that second quarter of '26, a significant acceleration in the growth rate as we are learning, tweaking, focusing our sales, and getting our message out.
What I'm really pleased to see too is some of the commercial enterprises that we have started to pick up and engage with, and I suspect as they get into it, the deployment rates will pick up pretty substantially. Turning sort of towards guidance and then questions, we do have a skew in this business, as it's turned out, I suppose.
When we first bought ADT, the first year, it sort of surprised us a little bit. Last year, it surprised us less, and this year, it surprises us not at all.
It's not a cyclical business. What it is is just in our installation volumes, customers do tend to work to a yearly cycle.
Certainly where it's a government, council, state, federal, or otherwise, even large business, they tend to work to a June sort of deadline on their project installation upgrade work. You have a very big push through about from now through to June, and prior to that, we're building that book.
We're buying inventory, we're having to buy servers in a lot of cases and be prepared to go through to June where the push goes on. For us, if you look at the average of that it's 43%, 57%, certainly we see absolutely that, and again, the pipeline is really substantial.
We're quite comfortable with where the business is at. To help out sort of track that guidance back from our journey, we've really tried to spell that out as clearly as we can for you.
The underlying EBITDA guidance we gave the AGM was a $43 to $47 million EBITDA. Given we've made the announcement of the acquisition of Tyco pending settlement in December, which I should also comment, is performing, and so that business itself, as it's not yet in our hands, is actually still performing, though is expected to contribute $10 million of EBITDA, Australian dollars, for pro forma EBITDA of 53 to 57.
As you track that from EBITDA to NPAT, that translates to about $26 to $29 million, which was a 6.2 to 7 cents per share pro forma EPS, and we are happy to say that we feel like we are well on track with those numbers. I think I'd make a wider point, and I've been I guess at this now for 3, 3.5 years, is we are on track, we're very happy with that, but what we're actually excited about is as we continue to look forward, that's just one moment in time that we need to hit.
We understand that, but as we're actually looking forward into '27, now increasingly in our planning, and then thinking about '28 as well, these numbers are, we're expecting to continue to build. I think the real question is around that underlying organic growth rate and when we start to see that pick up, which we'll be interested to see too.
Just in summary, and we'll go to questions: solid half for us. The New Zealand result wasn't ideal, I suppose.
The fact that we've offset that and still maintained on track tells you that the rest of the business is going very well, and in the second half, I think we'll see that. I think the point is we're continuing to build our success in what we're actually doing with the customers and the work we're doing.
Also, I'd say the people that are joining us, we are a growing organization with new staff members joining our team, and it's been really exciting to see some of the talent come in. To have over now 40 criminals picked up with the police because of what we're doing is incredibly exciting at an organizational level.
Pipeline, I think that is, for me, the key for us. We are winning work.
It's profitable work. We're very clear, you can win work, but you have to win profitable work.
We understand that too. To see that continuing to grow, largely again, in a lot of cases with existing customers and increasing work we can do for them is very positive.
Then we're on track, and so from our point of view, we're pretty wrapped and pretty happy with where we're at, and we're very excited about the next year or two. Look, I'll pause there.
Janine, I might ask you to come back on and maybe you can sort of help moderate for us with questions. I can see a couple of hands up there ready to go.
Operator
Thanks, Dennison. I have Tom come up first.
Tom, can you please unmute yourself and ask your question?
Dennison Hambling
Thanks, Tom.
Tom Tweedie
Morning team, just checking you can hear me?
Dennison Hambling
Yep, got
Operator
you.
Tom Tweedie
Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions.
Just a couple on the New Zealand business. Firstly, on the EBITDA slide you presented, I just want to get a sense for the second-half performance there.
Should we be expecting to hold that exit run rate or even deliver some growth on a monthly basis for the second half, FY '26?
Dennison Hambling
I'm very happy and we're not looking to set ourselves unbakeable challenges in life in the short term, Tom. I like doing this, and I'd like to be around for a while.
If you use that January number and sort of use that as your run rate going forward, I'm very comfortable with that.
Tom Tweedie
Brilliant. Just on the review of the ADT care New Zealand, appreciate your comments earlier, just wanted to get a sense, when and if you come to a decision on that business,
Dennison Hambling
what's
Tom Tweedie
the timing factor, should we be thinking?
Dennison Hambling
Really good pickup actually. You'll have to forgive me, I didn't think about including that, cuz it is something we've called out.
We largely have done that, and I think that ties into the overall piece in New Zealand around the style of management, the way we've brought the business together. The outcome to this point has been we have had a significant price rise for new volume from our main counterparty, which is the New Zealand government.
It is also MSD, which is a different part of MSD than what our security services workers for. MSD is the largest government department in New Zealand.
In the first instance, the economics moving forward of that business, we've solved by honest engagement with the customer. The second thing we've done is we have, and we are, seeking to really dig into the day-by-day the construct of the way we've been doing business.
To call it out, the biggest challenge, other than, I don't think the pricing was set quite right, which was an under contract that we inherited when we took over the business from the prior owner, was also each new customer often does come essentially from a third-party distributor, and we've been paying them a lot of money for that, but they also do a lot of good work for us and deploy. Understanding those relationships and optimizing them for returns and results is also important to that.
We did go out, I have talked to a couple of other players and interested parties. There absolutely would be interest in this business, and if we thought we could deploy the capital better or needed the capital, we would.
Actually, at this stage, I think we've elected to run it effectively tighter in a new way, and I think that will actually get us a better result in our hands than sort of simply looking to move it on. We just wanted to be open about it, though, and actually say it's a piece of work that needed to be done and gone through, and it will also help us found out.
I think now we'll park it, we'll see how it settles for the next year. It is an area with good growth, so as long as the marginal returns on that growth are high, we're happy to have it.
We're probably now just in a business-as-usual sense to make sure we can actually normalize out the economics and see where they come. Sorry, a long answer, but there has been a lot of work.
Look, I lead that work directly, and I'm happy to talk about it a lot more offline if people would like to engage in it.
Tom Tweedie
Appreciate it. Thanks for the color, and thanks for taking my questions.
Dennison Hambling
No worries at all.
Operator
Thanks, Dennison. Richard, do you want to just go off mute and ask your question, please?
Richard Harrisberg
Sure. Thanks, Janine, and morning, everyone, and thanks, Dennison and team, for a very comprehensive update.
I just wanted to ask a couple of questions around the pipeline number. Did I hear you correctly that the $50 million, that's sort of what you're expecting over the next 12 months is what you sort of expect in terms of a win rate there?
Dennison Hambling
No, that's what we have won to be delivered.
Richard Harrisberg
Okay. That's already won to be delivered, and that's over the next 12 months.
Dennison Hambling
Yeah. Just to characterize it, a lot of these pieces of work are actually multi-year pieces of work.
The judgment here against that number is, one, it's a highly probable, really a matter of when does it start, and we're only booking the work that is going to impact our P&L in the next 12 months. As I say, it's not a gross hoped-for pipeline or delivered pipeline.
It's actually what we realistically think it adds with confidence to our forward revenue forecast.
Richard Harrisberg
No, that's really clear and helpful. Do you have sort of a sense of how much of that hits in the second half of FY '26 versus first half of FY '27, or is it sort of evenly split?
Dennison Hambling
I think, yeah, look, it's a Jason, I don't know if you'd like if you've got thoughts on that, but look, I think a lot's going to come through. We've got a very busy this this second half is is is going to be, by far, our biggest half, full stop, and whether again, like to the point about the seasonality, like yeah, a lot of that work will go through, but you'll also get the the work on top.
I'd I'd say it's probably more in the second half coming up than the first half just because of the nature. That being said, a number of these things are projects.
We we're working with, some data center builders, for instance, that though those projects are going to take, years month, many months to years actually to to deliver, and they'll be pretty consistent like they don't stop June, July. They only really stop for Christmas and New Year.
I don't know. It's not a great answer, but my suspicion is there's just a lot in front of us in the next few months.
Richard Harrisberg
That's very helpful context. Thanks.
Then just quickly turning to New Zealand, I think you've hashed out sort of the impact you had there, but just on the 4G transition in terms of completion as a financial impact, do you think that'll be done by the end of FY '26, or is that sort of by end of calendar year?
Dennison Hambling
Look, I think, with our experience in Australia, it does tail, but just to call it out, certainly those of you that have been with us through this journey, the Australian experience, which was not great, and there was capitalizations, a whole lot of stuff there, because we walked into it and it had a different thing. The experience here is a little bit different.
The financial impact is twofold. One is there's CapEx in our subscriber medical business, our CapEx is a little bit higher as we're going through because we have been now for some time, it's not just happening, it's been going on for better part of 18 months to 2 years, refleeting our equipment that's in field to be able to handle 4G.
I think we've almost made our last payment now, Jason, for the updated 4G equipment. We have.
Effectively, the CapEx effect is actually ceased as of now moving forward. The real impact is the energy and the effort in the business.
You have a lot of people having to do a lot of work, either in the medical side updating, sending back, there's just all the work involved in effectively updating an existing base of business, and it just takes away from your ability. Say, the inbound sales guys, and I was sitting with them earlier this week in Auckland, they're on the phone taking 3G calls, calling out, "Hey, you've got a 3G.
You need to get on top of this. Your network's shutting in a couple of months," rather than dealing with an inbound new customer, "I'd like a new system.
I've got growth." Your growth is probably the bigger impact because of the time and effort.
In terms of when that washes out, it sort of comes in waves. At the moment, one of the networks in New Zealand has shut, and they are progressively shutting across the country.
I think the big network, or the biggest network, stops in March. That will kick in, but then you'll have a tail of people that haven't actually gone across that you're going to have to quickly shepherd through.
They kind of come in fits and starts. It'll definitely be done by the end of this year, I guess working backwards.
We will stop talking about it by the full-year result in any material fashion, but it'll sort of bubble in the background. As we're now exiting it, we're now able to start to really focus our teams on growth for the first time.
In Australia, that was a very positive thing to do. Once we got out of that, we could breathe a sigh of relief and actually start to move forward.
Richard Harrisberg
Great. Thanks, Dennison.
Really appreciate that color. I'll just ask one more before I pass it on to someone else.
It looked like the video guard is seeing some really positive momentum, especially in that big jump in the second quarter there. Previously, you've sort of called it out talking about 300 sites that you had on the program.
I just want to understand sort of the right metric. Is that sort of still thinking of sites, or is it now the right way of thinking about it in terms of monitoring lines?
Dennison Hambling
Look, it's both. It little bit depends on who you ask to be really honest, Richard, in our business, but primarily sites.
If you ask our ADT Guard guarding team that we've put together, the ADT Guard guys, and they're focused really probably on sites because they've got a guarding mentality. If you ask the monitoring guys, they're focused on lines because that's the way they kind of look at the business.
I think as we move forward, though, we will probably talk about lines because that makes it consistent and comparative with what we've done in the past. From probably a reporting point of view, we're starting the journey, and we're laying the foundations a little bit today, we can start to track that now more closely as we move forward with you, and it will probably be around lines.
Truthfully, internally, we're probably focused on sites. We want to guard as many premises around Australasia as we can, whether that's a house, a business, multi-site business, industrial, commercial, whatever.
We'll report to lines. In terms of numbers, yeah, the numbers have grown from 300.
I don't have an exact number in front of me, but it's consistent with that sort of growth profile that we put forward in the chart there.
Richard Harrisberg
Awesome. Thank you so much, and thanks for taking my questions.
That's all from us.
Dennison Hambling
No problem. Thanks.
Operator
Thanks, Richard. Nick Rawlinson.
Nick Rawlinson
Thanks very much, team. Sorry, I jumped on a little bit late, apologies if you've covered this up already.
Done on the performance of the Aussie business. Just on New Zealand, could you just expand on the growth drivers of that business, Dennison?
Dennison Hambling
For New Zealand?
Nick Rawlinson
Yeah.
Dennison Hambling
Look, I'll answer your question, but I'll do it by way of sort of explaining where we're at. When we took over ADT, IMG bought ADT, it was like, here's ADT, I think they called it Pacific region, Janine, you'll have to remind me, but here you go, here's your business.
We looked at that, we went, okay, here it is, and the first thing I did was say, right, well, New Zealand market conditions in Australia are different, and so they've kind of been meshed at a management level. We unwound that straight away and said, right, ADT is going to run for New Zealand, and ADT Australia is going to run for Australia, and they have their own GM, finance, and we're going to actually hold them to account individually and to their own market conditions.
From the IMG group executive leadership point of view, ADT AU was the big engine and had the most problems, if I'm to call it out. ADT New Zealand actually looked and has been a very stable business.
This is partly why we were a bit surprised to have had this crossover that we've just gone through, is historically it's just a very stable, good business essentially. We focused on Australia, and the way we focused on Australia, consistent with what we've been saying, what we've been trying to do, is, right, well, let's bring the ADT brand back, and we're going to do that by becoming the finest providers security service.
We're going to do that by going to the biggest customers in town with the most complex requirements, and providing them the best services that are available, and then we're going to use that to put our name out there, so that if you doubt we can look after your house and protect you, then we sure as hell can't be looking after Terminal 3 at Sydney Airport, right? You have to know that we know what we're doing if we can look after Terminal 3 and data centers and some of the highly secure facilities we look after, and then we'll allow that to come through the business and use the technology stack to sell itself, which is where we're starting to get to now.
In New Zealand, we didn't really do that. We had a couple of major commercial customers, and we had a medical business, and we weren't able to really unlock.
Now, when I first got New Zealand, I thought it would be easy because I was like, well, we're already starting with the biggest government department, we're already starting with the main airport, the largest airport. We had a couple of other major things, like surely we just take that case study out and unlock it.
We got hit with a couple of problems. One was the economy, and I do think New Zealand, I'm an Australasian citizen, to be clear to people, I live in Australia, I'm an Australian citizen, I've lived here, I've worked here my whole life.
I'm not speaking on behalf of New Zealand, but I've done a lot of business across both sides. New Zealand has had many recessions in my lifetime and Australia's had zero.
It does show what a deep sort of austere sort of environment can do. Customers weren't as soon moving.
We also didn't have the technical base. The customers we had, even though they were big and notable, weren't using actually particularly advanced security solutions.
It really was largely pretty much basic access control that they otherwise used. Fast-forward that to today, what we've done to essentially put in place the same platform that we are seeing in Australia now with the growth we're seeing in now, is we've gone, we really need to get that commercial enterprise business moving forward.
How do we do that? The answer is, well, Red Wolf is part of that, because it has got a much it's probably got the greatest share of high-security work and all security work at commercial enterprise in Wellington, which is the main it is the government market of New Zealand, which will allow us to use that expertise and understanding more advanced systems to help us drive those solutions across the rest of the business, and we haven't had that.
Then we've also, as I've noted, had a leadership change to allow us to actually have those skills in our business, which we have had in Australia, in terms of having some different characters and experiences driving the business to come in and do that. We have moved forward, the pipeline has grown, but it hasn't been the same type of experiences what we saw in Australia, again, for a couple of reasons.
I think as we now move forward, and we are seeing that pipeline pick up, I actually had a weekly pipeline call with the New Zealand team this morning. That pipeline, they've just had the best week they've actually ever had, and that's on the back of another good week.
We just got caught unfortunately with a handover-of-work issue that's made it look much more vulnerable than it actually is. Again, we suspect that pipeline will move forward.
As we move forward, we might start to disclose those pipelines differently, but the reality is the Australian pipeline is much much bigger than the New Zealand pipeline, and so we'll work our way through it. I'm not sure if that actually answers the question, Nick, but it gives you some context and color around it.
Nick Rawlinson
That's helpful. Thanks, Dennison.
Just a modelling question, maybe for Jason: how should we think about the tax coming through in the second half and into FY '27?
Jason Elks
Yep, great. Thanks, Nick.
The tax called out in the financial statements sort of roughly looks like about 21% tax. Given that the back half of the year arguably will be bigger and arguably more profitable, I think that we should be looking to sort of start to build a profile out on tax up just sort of around the 28% mark.
I think we will be in the pleasant and positive situation of making enough money that we have to pay tax this coming year and following years. I think sort of 28% is probably where 25 to 28% is probably where we should be thinking.
Dennison Hambling
I can comment on that too just for context. The '25 result, and we're all aware of the noise that tax has created for this business, and I'd like to be clear, it actually hasn't been the company that's created the noise.
It's been the advisers and auditors' opinions around it rather than that. Our view of our tax situation has strengthened a lot in that we don't see a tax problem moving forward.
We're going to lodge our tax as if we have the tax losses. Now that being said, we're burning them so fast they cease to be an issue anyway is really where Jason's point lands, is that we're going to have to start paying tax just because we're actually tax profitable.
In this result, though, the first FY '25, the auditors applied a 60% probability of the tax losses being available. In this result, they've also applied a 60% probably the tax being available.
This half's tax result is consistent with the '25 results that we put out. We believe they're 100% probable, it does mean probably, I don't know exactly how it works, but ultimately, we'd probably restate the tax number down in the future as we actually lodge our returns and don't have any issues, because we just don't see that there are any.
It's not our job. Our auditors are obviously our auditors, and we defer to their understanding of these things as we move forward.
Moving forward, we're ultimately that sort of 28% tax rate for many years, because I think that rules looks like where we shake out with the profitability and the back history of the business as we go forward.
Nick Rawlinson
Right, thanks, guys.
Dennison Hambling
No worries. Thanks, Nick.
Operator
Thanks, Nick. I've got David.
David, do you want to ask your question, please?
Dennison Hambling
Hey, David. Hey,
David Barbato
guys, can you hear me?
Dennison Hambling
Got
Operator
you. Yeah.
David Barbato
Thanks. Just a a clarification on the New Zealand CapEx.
What was related to 3D shut 3G shutdown, and what was the New Zealand medical fleet CapEx? From if I'm hearing what you're saying correctly, we should forget about that from, the first half of '27.
Is that right?
Dennison Hambling
The nature of the business of that medical business is it's a leasing business, there's always CapEx just to sustain the business. At the moment, what happened is over the course of about two years, you've had to refleet the whole fleet.
What would otherwise be about a five-year exercise, Jason, I think that's sort of the
Jason Elks
timeline that
Dennison Hambling
we had with the fleet size, you've had to, rather than over five years replace a fleet, you're doing it in two years. It's pushed CapEx up a bunch, and then it's coming down.
It's profiling down now because we've made our last payment, that's essentially brought it forward. On an ongoing basis, Jason, what's the sort of underlying level of CapEx post-3G for medical?
Jason Elks
Yeah. Pre-3G, it was sort of around that 3.5 to $4 million mark, and that kind of sort of lines up with what we've been saying, that we sort of finish around the $6 to $8 million CapEx mark for this financial year, sort of then coming down to sort of 4 to 6 million ongoing for as long as we are in the medical business in New Zealand and bring customers on at the rates that we have been, plus additional sort of stay-in-business CapEx above that.
David Barbato
Just to be clear, 4 to $6 million for the New Zealand medical CapEx as a maintenance CapEx number?
Jason Elks
In total. No, no, no.
No, sorry, in total in total for the business, yep.
David Barbato
Great. Thank you.
Jason Elks
Circa 4 mil for New Zealand sort of at the high end, and, yeah, max 2 million in Australia on things that we need to drive our business.
David Barbato
Understood.
Jason Elks
Even that's on the high side.
David Barbato
Thanks for the clarification. Then with that Queensland residential deterrence example, I'd have thought that that's an amazingly compelling story around the value that you offer.
How are you getting that story out there effectively, and is there an insurance partnership to explore to try and use their channel, because I imagine for them, it's an amazing boon.
Dennison Hambling
Yep, good great question. Firstly, like, and and, it will sound a bit disappointing, is is we're not really.
What what we're doing is we've got a lot of inbound demand anyway, right? What we're doing is trying to just convert that inbound demand to our high-value services.
What we're focused on doing is trying to drive drive it into commercial and enterprise, because, more cameras equals more dollars for us. We do have, a fixed fleet of utilization of fleet's the wrong word, but our technicians, we only have so many quality technicians who can actually deploy.
We're we're we're still what I'd call yield optimizing at this stage because we don't yet, we haven't, got enough people to go past that. That being said, we are we are learning and targeting, and so, we're going to, for instance, run some community sort of marketing around that area and really target in on it and, and do that just just because we need to learn our lessons around it as we go and build that capacity.
Ultimately, it's why we have the business model we have. When people look at us and go, "Oh, you've got these all this, Signature, what's that?
IMS, why bother?" it's because what they will allow us to do is, as this technology gets better understood and we do hit that penetration point, we can deploy using our partners' labor, and they will tie to us and or, our monitoring room, we get a share of hopefully a really big share of the growth of these sort of services and lock them into us, but in a much less labor-intensive way.
At the minute, we are we are using these stories to try to just upsell our inbound customers, and we are taking all of our stories. Look, there are many of them now.
We've over 44 arrests. We've got a lot of video.
We've got a lot of footage. We can't use much of it, and, a lot of it's subject to confidence, and, I need people to know that, we we watch your perimeter and we don't show everybody the outside of your house, for instance.
It's an amazingly powerful thing, and our conversion rates are very high when they see it. We'll we'll learn it as we go a little bit too, David.
Like we've just got to keep building scale, and as we scale, we'll we'll invest back more into marketing more generally. Really important that I want the ADT name to represent like the premium end of the market, right?
Like commercial enterprise premium. If you call us and want us to look after your property, your holiday house, your your parents, your whatever, yeah, we absolutely do that and we will do that.
David Barbato
Exactly. I would have thought that a testimonial would probably be reasonably easy to get from that family.
You blow the doors off,
Dennison Hambling
and then
David Barbato
use your installation partners, and then you guys just keep the high-ROI monitoring business. The comment Yeah.
Dennison Hambling
No, exactly. The challenge here, and if I just go back to why we have the shape and why the journey's unfolded as we have, is fundamentally, it's a very slow-to-change industry.
When we started with IMG back in the Threat Protect to IMG days, we were just a monitoring station, and we thought we could go out, link all this technology to us, and all the other security companies would be so delighted and run with it and go for it. They just, I think structurally, but partly because of their own economic business models, didn't.
Really what we're doing is we're showing the industry what good looks like with ADT, and ADT can be a huge and successful business. Ultimately, as they see it, get jealous, and all want a piece of it, we're their partner.
Come and deal with us, and to your point, that will drive a much more scalable ROI. We're working hard on influencing them.
I should actually call out we've just signed a partnership agreement with Jim's Group, Jim's Mowing, Jim's Security, and they will be starting to resell effectively our video guarding product through their network. We have a financial model with them to try to start to do this, David.
You might hear about this type of thing more through Jim's than you may through ADT, but effectively, we're the beneficiary at the end of it.
David Barbato
Great, I'll hand it back. Right.
Operator
Thanks, David. Foti, do you want to ask your question, please?
Hey, guys, can you hear me?
Dennison Hambling
Got you.
Brilliant, thank you. Congrats on the result despite the NZ pullback.
I've two questions, if I can, please. On Tyco, has it seen any impacts given the NZ economy and what's happened recently?
Dennison Hambling
I'll step back. In fire services, what happens in a tough economy is there's less new project work.
Again, with a fixed pool of sort of technical labor, what can happen is then everybody suddenly decides to try and lock into service contracts. A fire services business is very regulated around building warrants of fitness, signing off that fire system every year.
It's an even higher certified industry and serious industry than say the security industry, as you'd expect with fire. In a slower economy, you get a lot more price competition for service work, and they did see that back 6 months to a year ago.
Now they themselves had already, prior to us obviously being involved, gone through essentially a new lease of life and new reinvestment, and they're actually exiting all that with real momentum and actually picking back up in that area. Wormald, again just to whisper that name rather than shout that name, and that is what the name you'll see, by the way, if you were in New Zealand trying to find Tyco New Zealand, you would never find it.
You'd see Wormald. You won't see it as much as you'll see it in the future under our ownership, but is the name you'd see.
Their business is really focused around service. It got price competitive.
That has abated and they've actually been pulling back some major work. I probably aren't able to disclose what's been going on there yet and some of the success they're having, but I'm really excited about getting them into our business, what they mean for us in terms of leveraging both our footprint in New Zealand and also the relationships.
Man, we've been lucky. Great timing to be picking it up, certainly coming out the back end of the recession, the cycle sort of for the business, what it does, and then ultimately, again whispering it quietly, the price that we were able to achieve, which has come about because of years of relationship work and, I guess, presetting, I think we're going to look back on that very favorably in the future when we look back as a major milestone for our business.
Brilliant. Good to know.
Thank you. That's really helpful.
On the video guarding piece, obviously, it's got great growth rates, but coming off a really low base. When does it become a substantial part of the business?
At what sort of numbers, customer numbers, or revenue you're looking for?
Dennison Hambling
That is sort of the key piece to the business, if I'm to be straight about it, in the moving forward. What the situation we have is you have an intrusion base that we still sell a lot of intrusion alarms, and we will.
There is a value to them, but they are much lower value relative to this product. Largely, it's hard to maintain that base going forward.
People are falling away and have for some time away from intrusion alarms. They don't see the point or value, particularly when they go to Bunnings or call up Ring or whatever and get a camera.
These solutions are much different, though, right? What we are offering, this solution is actually proactive security.
Effectively, you're putting a security guard on your property wherever you want it 24 hours a day. The proposition for us is the value proposition is about three times plus higher than an intrusion alarm.
Effectively, what that means is we only have to sell one of these for every three intrusion alarms for it to be equivalent. To your point, we need to get over the wave effectively of the old intrusion alarms to get ahead of it.
We're forecasting for that to happen this half, frankly. Where we see it is in monitoring revenue.
Monitoring revenue starting to go up and then start to accelerate is sort of where you will see it at group level. We do have months where that happens, but we're still a little bit sporadic at the moment.
At the moment, it's depending on timing of bringing on some of the industrial commercial sites that we've picked up and been picking up. We need a bit more breadth and cadence kind of in that portfolio so it's to be consistently through, but we expect that to kind of happen in the next period.
It's another one of those ones where I don't want to be overly specific only because I like my job and I don't want to overpromise on a particular date that we may or may not be able to control precisely. It's certainly this year, and then from there, we look to accelerate it.
Then, as sort of to the point that we made in David's question, we would expect to see that also accelerate out across our partners and channels too, and ultimately really pull us forward. Monitoring in our partner businesses is actually going up, or revenue is going up, albeit still modestly at the moment.
That's a really important question. Expectation is this year, and that's why we expect to see organic growth accelerate as we look into the future from here.
Brilliant. Thank you.
Appreciate it.
Operator
Thanks, Dennison. We've got a few questions in the Q&A section, I've got Stella's question.
Stella, you're welcome to go off mute and ask your question. Otherwise, I can read that out.
Stella's question is, "FY '25 exit EBITDA on pro forma basis was the mid-40s. FY '26 plus on a higher half two is about the same level.
What's the outlook on the organic EBITDA growth?" That's the first half of the question.
Dennison Hambling
I'm not sure I totally understand the question, but underlying organic growth is sitting at a bit in Australia, obviously, this half, the New Zealand business has pulled the group level back, but it's running at about 8%. Half-on-half, that's sort of where we're seeing, and that will normalize out, we think, with the second half of New Zealand back on track.
Question is, when does that go forward? I think last year, I won't be able to exactly remember, but I think the EBITDA was about $36 million for the full year, around that number.
We're forecasting sort of a 43 million pre the Tyco acquisition this year with not actually that substantial the BMP and Western Advanced acquisitions were not actually that substantial at a group EBITDA level. That is far more organic pick up than acquisition pick up.
Then obviously, as we go into next year, and you add Tyco, and that will be a material pick up via acquisition. Not sure I'm answering the question exactly, Stella.
I'm happy to take it offline, but, yeah, we're expecting 43, of which a fair chunk of that from the 36 is organic. That 8% kind of growth rate underlying and then looking to accelerate it as we move forward is probably the best I can do.
Good.
Operator
Second half of Stella's question, Dennison, is more relating to our latest acquisitions. What she's asking is if we've seen any significant national accounts growth after acquisitions.
Dennison Hambling
Oh, no, for sure. Look, I made the comment before, but it's consistent today.
Every business that we've bought, actually with the exception of one, which I can call out, but I won't spend a lot of time on, has actually grown the year after we have taken control. That's been growth in their largely in their existing books and us saying yes and being open, to growth.
Often it's, helping them in different geographies where they weren't before or with some, useful services or access to new products like maybe, accessing our Gallagher channel channel partnerships and things like that, for instance. Absolutely seeing commercial national, growth, year on year, frankly, quite substantial.
We have a large customer in the mining sector who's effectively starting to bankroll us off their own back into into a geography that we've historically been strong in, but don't really have a presence today because they want us to be their preferred, security partner, certainly in Australasia, to to grow. Just as an indication, but yeah, no growth in that in around that is is is we're a lot of our growth is coming from.
Operator
Thanks, Dennison. I've got another question from Cliff Garner.
Cliff, happy for you to go off mute and ask your question.
Cliff Garner
I can see your question there, Cliff, if you're happy. Operating cash flow will never equal adjusted EBITDA because in operating cash flow you've got interest and tax.
Operating cash flow pre-interest and tax is actually very close to EBITDA now. This is largely a cash business and that is why we use adjusted EBITDA.
Adjusted EBITDA is trying to get one is a sense of truly recurring, what does actually underlying this business produce consistently in the recurring fashion, and it is pre the interest and tax. We haven't actually done the sort of calculation here.
I think we did do it a year or so ago once to make the case that adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow less interest, tax is pretty consistent. Then obviously, the only other thing is working capital.
In this half, we had $2.2 million increase in working capital for the half on June, and that's the investment in inventory that we expect to see at this sort of time of year as we look to deploy into the second half in that growth that we've got coming through in the pipeline. We can take it off.
Dennison Hambling
Look, our discussion, and we had this discussion actually yesterday, is probably for the full year, we'll do again, as we have done before, just another chart just to show the cash conversion tracking back to the P&L. We just ran out of time this after to get that done.
I guess I'd probably just second that just for the avoidance of doubt, Jason made a point and when he's talking about cash flow, this half, we bought over $8 million of acquisitions which were completely cash-funded, right? The business generates good cash.
Certainly, the first quarter doesn't feel that way, and probably won't ever feel that way, but certainly as you go through the full year, the business does. Even in this half, we've deployed over $8 million of cash into acquisitions pre the Tyco, which is when we did raise some money because we wanted to keep our balance sheet in a conservative setting.
That's probably the other way I've put here just as a proof statement about the cash generation. We've deployed a lot of capital in this half, and our cash did actually still hold together and go up effectively underlying.
Operator
Thanks, Dennison. I've got David back.
David, do you want to go off mute and ask your question?
Dennison Hambling
Go, David.
David Barbato
Sorry, and sorry to harp on about it. Just thinking through when you made the big acquisition, the big initial acquisition from Tyco last time, there was a bit of CapEx you didn't expect, I think, to see.
I imagine that you've been much more rigorous around the thinking about those issues with this acquisition, but to cut to the chase, was the $6 million per annum total maintenance CapEx number that you gave, is that including the Tyco acquisitions as well?
Dennison Hambling
No, it's not. I guess just to step back again, underlying everything this business, if we're lucky, we've got $2 million bucks stay-in-business capital, and that even with the acquisitions we've made since ADT, has hardly shifted.
It probably has, but I could call it relatively immaterial. These are service businesses.
The challenge we had with ADT was well, numerous, but one was we had no systems, process, insight. We're really buying a really hairy one to fix, and that was the journey we had to go on to get to where we are today.
This time around, we're buying a fully service business, there's no self-subsidization, capitalization. It is literally a pay-for-service business, and it's very clean.
I'll say it for a sec, sounds like I'm harping a bit, but since we've bought ADT, everything we've bought is quality. We're not out looking for really dirty things that we can do a lot of work on.
We're now in a position where we're really strong, and if we do something and or it has to add value, it's opportunistic, and it's quality. I go back to why I'm so sort of, I guess, proud's a funny word to say, but so proud to be able for us to pick up and have Wormald in our business.
Again, the price is something I never thought we would achieve. I didn't actually think it would be on our radar.
The underlying stay-in-business CapEx will go up a bit, David, but given it's a, and I don't mean only, but $10 million EBITDA business, might be $200,000 or $300,000 a year type of thing. It's not going to be millions of dollars, and it's a very good cash business.
David Barbato
Got it. No, it's an amazing acquisition.
It's amazing to hit the same seller twice at amazing valuations. Next question, it relates back to that, which is the M&A landscape.
It's, forgive me, but it's probably been a primary driver of growth over the last few years. What's left out there, and it seems to me like M&A probably goes into the backseat now?
Dennison Hambling
A great question, much appreciated. We've used M&A to build a business, right?
Just to make it very clear to those that haven't heard me say this before, whilst we look like a roll-up, we've been doing it to construct a business and a very clean business, and that's been the focus. That's why I would spend a lot of time with people interested on our values and what we're actually trying to do.
We've now built that business, we actually have all of the pieces we really need. From here, there are things that can add value that we could do, but if I got hit by a bus today, we've really got the business we need to now go on and do.
It has very much been about building a business. We've got the business, now we've got to drive the business and prove it up.
That being said, to answer your question, there's heaps. It's a very fragmented industry, and it's also an aged one, I think over the next couple of years there's just going to be repeatedly and ongoingly lots of opportunities.
They're various shape from there are a couple of potential big ones out there through to ones that will be immaterial that probably don't even necessarily get fully disclosed because they just look more like run a business. Obviously, we'll disclose everything, but they're not that material.
From here, my feedback to the business in Australia particularly is, we don't need anything, but there are opportunities for us to try to enable to accelerate growth. To call it out, and I'll be very open about it, now we're in a situation where and Janine actually directly runs the inbound sales team at ADT in the last sort of six or seven months, she had a sort of job variation.
Our inbound sales guys, we're very good now if you call up to where they can quote from a desk. If you call, if it's a house, a residence, a single site, we're good at that, and the guys can do that and we've come a long way and trying to sell you up to Guard-level services, ADT Guard that is.
Where if it comes through as a small business, sort of multi-site, a little bit complex, might need to see, yeah, we can absolutely do that. We've got incredibly talented engineers, technicians, what have you.
The problem at the moment is they're all working on $3, $4, $5 million deals over a long time, it tends to get a little bit lost in what we're doing. We've actually got quite a gap in our business around what I'll call sort of SMEs, small business, and deploying.
We've got a lot of demand there, and so that ADT Guard business, we bought BNP was the last acquisition we made, that business is effectively evolved, even though BNP still has its presence, to be ADT Guard, where David Medhurst, who was one of the founders of Southern Cross Protection, runs, and they are perfectly positioned to be able to go out on the street around these multiple car dealers, whatever, and pick up that work where there's a lot of demand and a lot of value. I think if we could pick up more scale in that area, we would be able to accelerate our growth even faster.
Again, opportunistically, we may still do things, but we're not in a position of going, "Oh, we've got to do something in the next year to solve some sort of problem." We've got a really good business now, we've just got to make sure we use the capital really well.
I will be crystal clear too though, we haven't paid above 3.5 times multiple for a security services business. We did pay 4 times for Wormald, which, by the way, last transacted, the Wormald portfolio in Australia in 2016 for above 10 times EBITDA.
I don't know the exact number, but I know it was above 10 times. Incredibly good value pick up there.
I'm not intending to tip in EBITDA just because our business has got bigger and the industry looks more exciting. Our criteria around valuation is non-negotiable.
If people ring and are interested to sell, want to have a discussion, there's no price conversation to be had here, but there might be value propositions and things we can do. From here, it will be interesting, David.
We'll just have to sort of see how the next six months to a year sort of progress, but we're very focused on delivering increasing growth, increasing cash, and then increasing returns. That's our real focus.
David Barbato
Thanks. I touched on insurance.
Are you seeing a benefit from insurance companies yet? Are they recognizing the value in premiums?
Thank you. I did forget to take that up.
Dennison Hambling
I know you asked in that question, I missed it. Great question.
The challenge with insurance is absolutely. For sure, we can show you case studies and say this business did not get ripped off.
It would have lost $30,000, $40,000 of product if we hadn't have been deployed to site to stop that from happening. That has to come off, if you're an insurer, that is a claim not made, money not spent, it is a slam dunk economically positive proposition for insurer.
Challenge is the insurers are all massive, right? Even though we might be large and have large aspirations, we're still relatively small.
First problem, just getting into them is difficult, and I think you could invest a lot of energy at the moment. I have tried, and it's hard to get cut-through.
I think seeing is believing. We need to get ourselves in a position where they see us and they actually go, "Oh, we should do that," and come to us, and we'll keep trying to open those doors.
Second problem though is they've kind of heard this before, right? The security industry variously, early in my time here, I reached out to one of them unnamed, sat down, and they said, "Oh yeah, you're just the next guy.
We've all heard about this insurance thing, and it should be good, but everyone always says it and nothing happens." I think fundamentally, ultimately it broke down because there wasn't really value in the proposition.
There wasn't that actual imperative to drive. A little bit like your question around marketing, we're trying to find our way, how do we open that door, who realizes.
On an economic, industrial logic basis, if I was the largest insurance company in the land doing property insurance, I would buy us today, right? Because you could turn around, own the service with a brand, and cross-subsidize it.
You will lower your claims probably by I don't know what the exact claim dollars are for burglary and theft and car theft on property in Australia, but if you halved that, you're talking about billions of dollars of value. Are they smart enough to do that?
I don't want to be bought, just to be clear, that's not something I'm looking for, but at this point, we haven't yet registered enough, I guess they can't see us yet to go for the penny to drop. We'll keep trying to open those doors, and to the extent that anybody on the call has insights into how to do that at the right level to the right people, we're totally open to do that and to make our case.
Somebody and whoever picks it up first will get a real advantage, and we look forward to working with them.
David Barbato
Perfect. Thanks.
I'll hand it on. Thanks,
Operator
David. Andrei, do you want to ask your question, please?
André Fromme-Dionisio
Thanks, Janine. Just checking you guys can hear me.
Dennison Hambling
Yep, got you, Andrei. How you going?
André Fromme-Dionisio
Great. Thank you.
My question is how much more room there is to run with growing your business with existing customers. It's been, for me, that's been one of the themes of this call, both companies or government or whoever saying, "Okay, let's expand geographically with you as the national Australasian vendor," but also you've mentioned around maybe starting with install work and then going down the value chain or down the pyramid, you had it, and getting more recurring revenue.
Just interested in any color you can give on how much further room there is to run with existing customers, growing with them, and doing more value for them.
Dennison Hambling
Good good question. The with our there's sort of two different existing customers.
There's the the traditional ADT, call I'll call them security customer, again I'll use the word intrusion alarm customer. I'm I'm not optimistic that there's a lot of value there.
Those customers historically have been we're subsidized and with cheap alarm systems, and, I'm I'm not sure they are the go-to. I think the risk with those customers, if we highlight that what they have is not necessarily as valuable as they might have thought, we'd probably just run the risk of in increasing churn in the short term.
In the commercial side, I think it's very different. In the commercial side is, where we have relationships, we absolutely can grow because it largely is a cost saving at the very least for them.
If we are taking out guarding and or patrol work that they might be paying for today, and and or response work, at the very least, we can be a pretty decent cost saving, which in today's world is a positive, but but better than that, it's a it's a positive cost saving. It actually adds value and does a better solution for them.
I think there's a lot more we can do there. The reality is, though, this is an adoption type of exercise, and so typically, even in those customers, whilst there's very smart people, they've largely probably been in security services for a lot of their career and or they're in procurement, maybe IT.
If you've come from security, and somebody comes and pitches you video, video itself has been around for a long time. Like, we've all been able to put cameras in our houses and up and down the street for many years now.
The the the change here is the edge AI and the use of technology. Now we're in a world where some people still run their businesses on paper and doves, and some people are using edge AI and Cloud and all these things.
It's a very very wide world we're operating in today, all of us. Very few of the people that are using edge AI and having their cars drive them to work are actually, 25-year veterans of the security industry.
Their their confidence in early adoption is relatively low. There's quite a bit of trial work.
I'll I'll call it I'll I'll call it a better example. I mentioned when I talked about New Zealand, the first deterrence in New Zealand.
That actual site was a was a trial site. We've yet to really charge them any real dollars, because we said, and I said to the team, "Just go and find someone, and put it in, and show them that it works," which we've done.
From now, I'd expect hopefully over the course of the next six months to a year, they will realize that we've probably saved them in that one event more money than it will cost them to deploy that service across all their other car yards in New Zealand. It's it's a bit of a penetration game.
It will take time. Our existing customers, we can move at the rate they can move is probably the way I'd put it, and then ultimately that's still going to be about widening.
I think I think in reality, the way I approach this is it's it's almost just a new customer. It's a new conversation we are having with the world about what electronic security can do, and we have to approach it like that.
We have to find the people that are that are ready to go and want to go. Not sure if that answers your question directly, but hopefully that gives you a flavor.
André Fromme-Dionisio
It does. Thanks very much, and congratulations on the half.
Dennison Hambling
Thank you. Cheers.
Operator
That's it for all the questions, Dennison.
Dennison Hambling
Great. Look, I think we've had chance really appreciate your time.
Sorry that we've overrun, but appreciate the questions and enjoy the questions, and are thankful for your interest. Again, if anybody does have insights, I'll finish with the story.
One of the people I have worked with over the years they've a person in their business who had someone arrive at their house in Melbourne, rang a ring doorbell at 3:00 in the morning a couple of Sundays ago, three people with masks on, pretty terrifying thing to have happened. Pleased to say that today they have ADT Guard and they have been able to sleep really soundly now since.
In no sense of irony in this comment, but a week after that event, someone was actually killed in that suburb with some violent sort of criminal activity. What we've got here is a real opportunity to do some fundamental good and add value and create a really great business.
This half was a solid half. I know the New Zealand bit weighed us down a bit, but we're pretty confident that that reverts and then moves forward.
Fundamentally, this business has got the wind up, and if you come across the business, you'll see a lot of people that are excited about what we're doing, excited about the conversations we're having, and we're excited to see the financials continue to clean up, improve, and ultimately drive us forward to be a really great cash-generative, successful business. Thanks for your support.
I'm sure I'll see some of you around over the next couple of weeks. If you do have any questions, Jason, Janine, and I are available.
Come through, happy to take them, and look forward to the journey in the next couple of years ahead. Thank you.
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