Jupiter Mines Limited

Jupiter Mines Limited

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Feb 26Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 30, 2026

Operator

Good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to the Jupiter Mines Q2 call.

Today, we have Jupiter Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Brad Rogers and Chief Financial Officer Melissa North to provide a brief update on the second quarter of the 2026 financial year, and then we will open up for questions from callers. Thanks, Brad.

Please go ahead.

Brad Rogers

Thank you very much, and good morning. Thanks for joining the call this morning.

We released our December quarterly to the market this morning, and I will just provide, as usual, a few overview remarks, try and tease out what I think are the key points that are contained within that quarterly activities report. Then at the end of the remarks, I'll turn the line over to any questions.

Those who have had the opportunity to review our quarterly will see that the second quarter of the 2026 financial year reflected another strong operating result. Sales and production both up quarter-on-quarter and in line with our full-year targets.

Unit costs in US dollars slightly better as well quarter-on-quarter, and that was a great result, particularly because the rand, against the longer-term trend, actually continued to strengthen in this December quarter, which was obviously a headwind for USD-reported costs. Cash also was steady quarter-on-quarter at quite healthy levels, notwithstanding we had the usual semi-annual payment of taxes and royalties in the December quarter.

That was a good result as well. From a safety perspective, we unfortunately had two minor lost-time injuries in the quarter.

Both of those injuries were in the nature of slips and trips: one worker tripping over an exposed rock and spraining his ankle, and a cleaner sustaining some lower leg injuries whilst slipping as well whilst conducting her duties. Both of them, as I said, lower leg soft-tissue injuries, and our team at site, as you'd imagine, is responding with appropriate mitigations and communications around those injuries, which unfortunately remain a risk in any mining environment.

A lot of that is about remaining vigilant about those risks and having proper lighting and those sorts of things. From an operations perspective, our sales for the quarter were 867,619 tonnes sold, and that figure was 4% up on the previous quarter and 27% up on the prior corresponding period in the previous financial year.

Production also was quite strong: 840,688 tonnes, and that was slightly up quarter-on-quarter and 13% up on the prior corresponding period. There was a lean towards high-grade ore production.

Less low-grade ore production in the quarter, more high-grade ore production. Obviously, that sets us up for a good mix of sales in the forward-looking quarters.

The high-grade ore production was actually 10% up quarter-on-quarter, whilst, as I said, overall production was about 1% up quarter-on-quarter. Operating costs, as I mentioned a moment ago, were good, were sort of in range, and the costs were $2.24 USD FOB per dmtu for the quarter.

That's about where we were sort of guiding that we expected to be. However, we have had a strengthening rand, which is a major factor in reported US dollar costs, and so actually being slightly down as we were quarter-on-quarter with our costs is a particularly good result in view of the strengthening rand.

Land logistics were basically flat quarter-on-quarter. Mining was slightly down, 5% down quarter-on-quarter, and part of that was seasonal rain that we expect to see in the December quarter and we usually see it around this time of year.

Manganese prices and market prices more broadly were quite supportive during the December quarter. As we sit here today, FOB spot for the grade of ore that Tshipi sells is $3.68 per dmtu, and at the end of the December quarter, it was $3.46.

We improved spot 30 September $3.36 to 31 December $3.46, and today $3.68. We've seen a strengthening of manganese market prices through that period of time, and that's continued post-quarter-end, and I'll come back to why that has been the case in a moment.

You'll see in the quarterly activities report that average realized prices were 6% up for the December quarter compared to the September quarter. Freight rates also slightly lower: $25 per tonne USD on 31 December, $23.40 today.

We've been range trading for the last sort of three or four months in a reasonably tight range of about $23.50 to $26 a tonne, and that's where we'd expect to be or hope to be in this sort of market, also quite favorable. Manganese ore stockpiles in China, which we've talked about are a good leading indicator for where prices might be going, hence why we include a tracking of that particular metric in our quarterly activities report, remained at around 4.4 million tonnes of manganese ore at Chinese ports in stockpile today.

We have been at around that level for much of the last six or nine months or so, and so you'll see in our quarterly activities report averaging around that number, and it's still that number today at the end of January. You'll also recall in some of our previous communications that we have called out that the, call it, five-year average preceding the last nine months or so has been about 5.8 million tonnes of manganese ore at stockpile at port in China.

That 4.4 million tonnes remains quite a bit lower than the recent average that we have tended to see, and that's also supportive. Given manganese prices have been a bit higher, and given over the last few months exports of manganese ore have been reasonably elevated from some countries, that ore has been consumed by downstream alloy demand, which has been relatively robust for this last period of time.

There's a few things going on there. The stronger Chinese yuan against the US dollar, obviously, is supportive for USD-reported manganese prices, so that's part of what's going on.

There's also some newer renewable energy-powered alloy plants in China that have greater levels of efficiency, and that's also been supportive and, we think, why there's been quite robust downstream alloy demand recently. Then very recently, there's the usual pre-Chinese New Year stocking perhaps going on.

Even though prices have been up and, from Tshipi's cost position, we think reasonably supportive, we're quite happy of the trend and where they sit today, and at times overall market supply has been reasonably elevated as well, that ore has been consumed in the market. That's quite evident when you have a look at the levels of manganese ore at stockpile in China.

I think you'd say a balanced market at the moment, notwithstanding prices have ticked up quite nicely, albeit fairly gradually over the last month or so. The trend is pleasing.

On to financials: Tshipi's EBITDA was down 19% quarter-on-quarter, and that was mostly due to FX losses with the strengthening rand, as you can imagine. Whilst it's down quarter-on-quarter, the actual dollar figure isn't that material if you have a look at the EBITDA dollars.

It's sort of within the range of where Tshipi trades in this sort of pricing environment. Cash at Tshipi, as I mentioned earlier on, basically steady quarter-on-quarter and at healthy levels: around AU$137 million at the end of December, and that's down 2% from the end of the September quarter.

We did have to pay taxes and royalties in the period. It's a semi-annual payment, there was good operating cash generation, and that resulted in a good ending cash at Tshipi, notwithstanding the payment of taxes and royalties in the period.

Cash in Jupiter, cash at the Jupiter level, also basically steady quarter-on-quarter. You will have also seen this morning, perhaps, that we updated the market referencing a market announcement by Exxaro yesterday in South Africa that Exxaro is now unconditional in respect of the acquisition of certain manganese interests from Ntsimbintle Holdings and from OM Holdings.

What that means, according to the Exxaro announcement as reflected in our announcement this morning, is that Exxaro expects to complete the acquisition of those interests on or before the 27th of February, a little under a month away. On that date of completion, what that means from a Jupiter perspective is that Exxaro will join Jupiter as our co-investor at Tshipi under the same shareholders' agreement that's always been in place there.

Exxaro is just buying into the same shareholders' agreement and taking out the existing shareholders, Ntsimbintle and OM Holdings. That's what it means: at an asset level, Jupiter continues with Exxaro from that date to exercise joint control over the asset, and the way that the asset has been governed very successfully over the period of its operation will continue to be the case.

At Jupiter, what it means, as summarized in our announcement, is that Exxaro will join Jupiter as our largest shareholder. They will be acquiring 19.99% of Jupiter's shares from Ntsimbintle Holdings, and that trade will complete on that same date, 27th of February or earlier.

That's also unconditional. The price that Exxaro has agreed with Ntsimbintle to pay for those Jupiter shares is in rand: 3.69 rand per share.

Obviously, it's exposed to the foreign exchange rate, but as an indication, the Australian dollar price today is a little over 33 cents a share, and that compares to our trading share price today when I last looked of about 28.5 cents per share. In summary, just bringing it back before I open the line for questions: strong operating result from Tshipi, sales up, production up, unit costs slightly down, and cash at steady, healthy levels.

Our interim dividend, 31 December, will be decided in the next month. You'll be familiar that it goes through a two-step process of Tshipi first recommending a dividend to shareholders, and once we have that, Jupiter will communicate that to the market.

That's also to come in the next month. We have seen, and we continue to see, a relatively supportive market in terms of manganese prices, levels of manganese ore at stockpile in China, and also freight rates.

Supportive through the December quarter relative to the preceding quarter, and continuing that trend post-quarter-end. Then finally, Exxaro communicating that important news yesterday and relevant for Jupiter in the ways that I've mentioned a moment ago that in a little under a month, they will be joining Jupiter as a co-investor at Tshipi and also joining Jupiter as our largest shareholder.

As we've continued to say, Jupiter's very welcoming of that development. We see that as being really supportive in terms of value growth at Tshipi, but also we share a view with Exxaro around growth through consolidation in the Kalahari.

We're looking forward to welcoming Exxaro as a co-investor and working to them, given that shared view strategically. Hopefully, that overview's been useful.

I'll turn the call open to see whether there are any questions on the line.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question.

Your first question comes from Jon Scholtz with Argonaut. Please go ahead.

Jon Scholtz

Hi, Brad and team. Quick question on Tshipi: obviously, it has its own management structure in place.

With Exxaro coming in, has there been a change to that management structure, or is it all running as per normal?

Brad Rogers

Morning, John. Thanks for the question.

No change at all. The same team that's been in place there will continue, and there is, as I mentioned, no change in the shareholders' agreement and the way that Tshipi is governed.

That also pertains to key management appointments. The way that it is run, where both shareholders at Tshipi need to agree on important matters like key management personnel, will continue to be the case.

There are ways that we absolutely foresee that Exxaro can add value to Tshipi's operation, and Jupiter will be absolutely supportive of that. An obvious one is around group procurement prices, things like that.

The key point here is that the partners need to agree. That's been the case to date, and it will continue to be the case.

To answer your question directly, there's no change in the management personnel, and there's no change that we're anticipating. There will obviously be a change at the board level with Exxaro people coming in at completion replacing previous Ntsimbintle appointments.

As you'd also imagine, in anticipation of this change coming, and we'll provide some more information at completion, we're working closely and well both with Ntsimbintle and with Exxaro to make sure that's a smooth change. The operation itself will continue to be led by Ezekiel Lotlhare, who's been doing a great job up until now, and with his team, they will be continuing unchanged.

Jon Scholtz

Excellent. Then I guess they get the keys at the end of Feb, but there's a board meeting before that to discuss the distributions, which will lead into Jupiter's first-half divvy as well.

That will all be in the existing structure with Ntsimbintle instead of Exxaro. Is that correct?

Brad Rogers

That's correct. Yeah.

That's, as I think I might have mentioned when we first talked about this deal in May of last year, dividends, as is ordinarily the case in this sort of situation, are a permitted leakage. Since any dividend that's declared by Tshipi will be a 31 December pre-completion matter, that will be something that's decided with Ntsimbintle, just as every other dividend has been.

Jon Scholtz

All right. Understood.

Thank you very much.

Brad Rogers

Thanks, John.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone.

Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Adam Baker

Hi, Brad. John got a couple of my questions there, but wondering if you could just touch on the manganese market at the moment, noting that you're seeing spot prices increase to $4.32 towards the end of January, and you noted the stockpiles in China are pretty low at the moment.

Do you think this positive momentum can continue throughout the year, and what else are you seeing on the market side of things?

Brad Rogers

Yeah. Morning, Adam.

Thanks for your question. I'd say that downstream demand has been a bit more robust than market participants probably anticipated, and that's been a good thing.

It's meant that, as I made in my opening remarks, that even though supply at times from major market participants, including ourselves, has been quite high through that period of time, the market's just eaten that up. The clear evidence of that is that the stockpiles have traded in this very tight range of 4.4 million tonnes from about April or May of last year.

The most of forecasts that I look at are forecasting the usual sort of ups and downs that you might see, and I mentioned that right now you would typically see some restock or stocking ahead of Chinese New Year, and that's a temporary demand factor, for example. Then you can have that easing off post-Chinese New Year as the market consumes that manganese ore.

It's an open question around whether that's actually going on right now. It is a typical seasonal effect.

I think if you take out those normal slight seasonalities, most forecasts that I'm looking at have been revised upwards from where they were previously. Part of that is the factors that we've mentioned: stronger Chinese yuan is supportive; lower manganese ore stockpiles in China also supportive.

There has also been some supply impacts which have lowered supply out of certain countries over the last six months or so, so that's an open factor. There's some conjecture about downstream silico-manganese alloy stocks, although we don't have any data on that.

I think some people think that there is unidentified, unquantified stocks of alloys downstream beyond the plants themselves, perhaps in factories. That's a potential downside factor.

I think if I oil all of that up and have a look at the market analysts' forecasts for the next six months or so, they're higher than they were previously, and that's partly informed by the factors that I've mentioned. Partly informed, I'd say, also that prices that have prevailed and have continued to tick up have outperformed those previous forecasts.

I think people have gone back and reviewed that. We, with our level of costs, are pretty happy with where things are right now.

CIF and FOB prices have gone up, and although there's been certain months where ore supply has been higher, it hasn't gotten overall on average out of control. It feels reasonably balanced both on the supply and the demand side, and you've got some FX factors factoring in.

Then shipping rates have been quite good as well. They've traded in a desired range, I'd say, but in a fairly tight range as well.

We like the trend. We like where it sits right now, and I'd say there's, on balance, probably supporting factors for round about where we are right now, but also noting you do have some temporary factors of pre-Chinese New Year, post-Chinese New Year, etc.

The overall trend is more positive than perhaps people would have thought six months or so ago.

Adam Baker

Thanks, Brad. I don't have any other questions.

Thank you.

Brad Rogers

Thank you, Adam.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone.

We will now pause a moment to allow for any final questions to register. There are no further questions at this time.

I'll now hand to Brad for closing remarks.

Brad Rogers

Thank you very much. Thanks all for your participation today.

Hopefully, those remarks have been helpful. As I said, it's a very strong operating quarter for December, helpful market as we've just discussed, and important development that we've all picked up on in relation to Exxaro as a fairly near-term completion, as communicated by that company yesterday.

Thanks again for your time. Look forward to talking to you soon.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today.

Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.