Temple & Webster Group Ltd

Temple & Webster Group Ltd

5.43
AUD
+1.36
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0.09EPS
223.98P/E
2.53BMarket Cap
Feb 15Next Earn

Q4 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 19, 2026

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mark Coulter, Executive Chair. Please go ahead.

Mark Coulter

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us.

Before we begin, I would like to take the opportunity to acknowledge the Traditional Owners and Custodians of Country throughout Australia. On the call with me today is our new CEO, Susie Sugden?]

, as well as our CFO, Cameron Barnsley. We will be taking you through Temple & Webster's financial results for FY 2026, which were released to the ASX earlier today.

Before we run through the investor presentation, I would like to warmly welcome Susie to Temple & Webster and to her first results call. While Susie started with us as CEO on the 1st of July, this actually marks a return to the company for her.

Susie has previously been with us for about five years, running various functions including merchandising, marketing, and commercial operations. It's been great having her back in the business, and I'm really excited to be working with her moving forward in this capacity as CEO.

I'll now start with a summary of our FY 2026 results on slide four. In FY 2026, we delivered record revenue of $665 million, which represents 11% growth on FY 2025.

This result was delivered in the face of a challenging consumer environment, which continued to soften into the last few months of the financial year. In terms of profitability, we generated close to $22 million in EBITDA for the financial year, which is at the top end of our guidance range from May.

This outcome represents a margin of 3.3%, and when excluding significant non-operating items and unrealized FX losses, was closer to $26 million or a margin of 3.9%. This significant growth in EBITDA was driven by improved unit economics through the fourth quarter as a result of the margin optimization initiatives that we implemented in March.

We will talk to these more later in the presentation. Pleasingly, we've been able to make strong progress against our strategic priorities throughout the year.

FY 2026 marks the first time that more than 50% of our revenue was from exclusive and private label products, and our growth adjacencies of Home Improvement, Trade & Commercial, and New Zealand now account for well over $100 million of annual revenue. Despite variable market conditions, we are targeting EBITDA of between $33 million and $40 million for FY 2027, which represents approximately 50 to 80% growth on FY 2026.

Now, crucially, we are focused on returning the business to double-digit revenue growth. Susie will be providing more specific details of these plans to achieve that at our upcoming AGM in October and our half-one FY 2027 results in February.

I'll now hand over to Cam to take us through our financial and operating results in FY 2026 in more detail.

Cameron Barnsley

Great. Thank you, Mark, and good morning to those joining us on the line.

I would also like to take the opportunity to welcome Susie to the team. I'm really excited to be working together with you as we take Temple & Webster to the next stages of its growth.

Welcome. I'll start today by taking you through some of our operational metrics and milestones, and then I'll pivot to our financial results.

Firstly, on slide six, our key performance metrics continue to trend well, demonstrating consistency in our execution. Active customers reached over 1.3 million for FY 2026, up 5% year-on-year.

As discussed in H1, we continue to be pleased to see improvement in customer cohort behavior, resulting in a greater proportion of repeat orders. Repeats comprised 62% of orders in FY 2026, up from 59% in FY 2025.

I'm also pleased to note that our 12-month marketing ROI has remained stable at 1.4, whilst growth in our first-time customer acquisition cost, or CAC, has slowed year-on-year. Our new customer CAC for the last 12 months of $105 was lower than that same metric at 31 December.

Revenue per active customer was up substantially to over $490, driven by higher average order values, particularly in H2. Finally, we continue to maintain a world-class NPS level of 60, demonstrating the strength of our customer proposition and experience.

Moving on to slide seven, our ambition is to become Australia's leading furniture and homewares retailer. To achieve this, we've continued to execute against five strategic priorities.

I'm pleased to report that we continue to make strong progress across each of these during the year. I'll call out a few highlights from this slide.

Firstly, in terms of our exclusive product range, continues to grow as a percentage of total revenue. For FY 2026, private label and exclusive dropship was over half of our revenue, in fact 51%, up from 45% last year.

This is a great milestone. 83% of our top 500 selling products are now exclusive, up from 70% two years ago.

Our dedicated sourcing office in Shanghai continues to deepen our relationships, and we continue to add many new and high-quality private label options for our customers. We also continue to trial and deploy proprietary AI-powered tools company-wide.

We're focused on several key initiatives, including customer-focused personalization and agentic-developed upgrades to our storefront architecture. We've also invested in new insights agents across our business, which are already driving commercial outcomes and helping to improve margins.

Finally, our commitment to cost discipline is driving ongoing operating leverage. Fixed costs improved to 10.1% of revenue, a 50 basis point reduction from the prior year, which allows us to reinvest in growth drivers of price and marketing whilst maintaining a strong customer value proposition.

I'll now turn to slide eight to talk through the performance of our adjacent growth plays. During the year, we've hit a milestone for our adjacencies, now contributing over $100 million in annual revenue.

In fact, it was actually $117 million for FY 2026, representing an increase of 30% on FY 2025. From Home Improvement perspective, this business continues to disrupt the category with a good quality, stylish, and cost-effective range delivered with the convenience and customer experience that Temple & Webster is famous for.

FY 2026 Home Improvement generated almost $60 million in revenue, an increase of 39% on FY 2025, representing a 43% CAGR since the launch of this business in FY 2023. Trade & Commercial continues to perform well despite the softer conditions, and the business recorded a pleasing $56 million of revenue, an increase of 16% on FY 2025.

Finally, New Zealand, this continues to be a really compelling opportunity for us. This $3 billion market expands our TAM by nearly 10% and serves as a proof of concept for future international growth.

I'm really pleased to report that we've now generated $3 million in revenue from New Zealand, ahead of expectations, and the business is now run-rating at contribution breakeven. We believe we can accelerate our revenue in New Zealand through some basic enhancements to the customer journey, including a dedicated domain and checkout, accelerated shipping timelines, as well as focused local marketing.

I remain excited about what we can achieve here and to develop ways to better serve our customers across the Tasman. Now turning to slide nine to talk through our financial results.

As Mark mentioned at the start of the call, revenue grew 11% for the year to $665 million. This outcome was driven by higher AOVs, particularly through the second half, as well as growth in active customers.

This result was in line with our guidance range in our May trading update. At the delivered margin line, we ended FY 2026 at just over $200 million, a margin of 30.2%.

This outcome reflects higher promotional intensity through the third quarter, but offset by an improvement in the fourth quarter. This margin outcome remained consistent with our target operating range of 30 to 32% for the year.

Pleasingly, a more disciplined approach to marketing and some efficiency gains realized in our digital channels have driven our marketing cost of sale down from 16.3% in FY 2025 to 15.2% in FY 2026. During the year, we also achieved material fixed cost leverage, with fixed costs growing at just 5.5% versus revenue at 11%, which resulted in our fixed cost ratio declining from 10.6 to 10.1%.

At the EBITDA line, I'm pleased to report that our underlying EBITDA, excluding unrealized FX losses, was $25.9 million, a margin of 3.9% and an increase of 28% over FY 2025. This measure excludes our startup investment into New Zealand as well as one-off costs incurred as part of our warehouse transfer in Melbourne.

Reported EBITDA of $21.9 million was at the top of the guidance range provided in May, driven by stronger profitability through the fourth quarter as a result of our short-term rebalance between growth and margin. Finally, at the net profit after tax line, we did see an abnormally high effective tax rate in FY 2026, which is a result of a reversal of our deferred tax asset relating to outstanding share options.

This had no impact on cash flow. Our cash tax expense for FY 2026 was $3.6 million, approximately 30% of PBT.

Turning to slide 10, I think it's worth taking everyone through the initiatives that we've put in place during H2 and the impact that this had on our margin profile. As a reminder, we had four key initiatives in March in order to appropriately balance profit and revenue growth in the short term whilst we moved through a difficult consumer environment.

These changes have driven permanent change in our unit economics and are expected to continue into this financial year. Firstly, we made specific changes to our pricing structure and promotional cadence to improve delivered margin.

Secondly, we worked with suppliers to access greater promotional support as well as reducing the incidence of damage and defective products, which result in poor customer outcomes. Thirdly, we restructured our digital marketing channels in order to implement category-specific bidding, which has resulted in a circa 10% reduction in CPCs, demonstrating true improvement in efficiency rather than just a reduction in spend.

Finally, we made changes in the fixed cost base in order to drive $3 million in cost savings in H2 versus H1, primarily linked to automation and AI adoption. You can see the impact of these changes in the table on the right.

In the fourth quarter, our run rate margin profile was materially higher than our overall FY 2026 profile. In particular, our delivered margin after marketing cost ran at approximately 19% in the fourth quarter compared to an overall level of 15% for the full year.

This run rate gives us confidence in our FY 2027 target ranges of 31 to 33% at the DM line, 15 to 16% at the contribution margin line, and then 5 to 6% at the EBITDA line. In fact, our fourth quarter run rate was ahead of these ranges, meaning that we do have some additional flexibility already.

As Mark mentioned, we are targeting an EBITDA range of $33 million to $40 million for FY 2027. As always, we retain flexibility to use our price and marketing levers to best respond to conditions and drive revenue.

Our long-term targets on margin remain unchanged. We continue to focus on scaling towards an EBITDA margin of 15% plus.

What we've achieved over the last few months gives me even more conviction on this target. On slide 11, we have shown our cash flow bridge for FY 2026.

We ended the full year with a cash balance of $123 million, which is a reduction of approximately $21 million on the prior year, driven by our on-market share buyback program, through which we acquired $30 million in shares through the year. Having this strong cash balance and capital management flexibility continues to be a competitive strength in the current environment.

Our operating cash flow of $24 million represents over 100% of EBITDA. Note that our capex spend for this year was impacted by approximately $5 million of one-off setup costs for our new Melbourne facility and warehouse, where we have a 10-year lease.

This will not reoccur in FY 2027. Finally, turning to the balance sheet on slide 12.

Key takeaway from this page is that we continue to be in a really strong capital position, with over $120 million in cash and no debt, plus a business that is generating cash flow. On the right-hand side of this slide, we've once again outlined our capital management priorities, which remain unchanged.

Maximizing shareholder returns is at the core of our long-term strategy and the lens through which we assess capital allocation. Our strong capital position means we remain fully funded to pursue organic and inorganic growth opportunities, as well as other capital management strategies, including our buyback.

Now, a few housekeeping points for FY 2027. Our expectation on depreciation and amortization for FY 2027 is between $13 and $14 million, up slightly from $12.9 million in FY 2026.

Intangible capex is expected to increase on FY 2026 levels as we invest more in AI tools and customer-facing technologies to a range of between $5 to $7 million. PP&E capex is expected to be approximately $1 million.

Thanks again for your time, and I'll now hand the call over to Susie.

Susie Sugden

Thanks, Cam. Good morning, everyone.

Thanks for joining us. I'm so excited to be back at Temple & Webster.

I rejoined after my time in private equity for a couple of really good reasons. The first is the experienced and innovative team.

I know them really well, and it's a pleasure to be working with them again. The second is this is a business with a huge growth opportunity ahead of it and a really consistent track record of execution against that opportunity.

During the current uncertain operating conditions, I take a lot of confidence from having worked with the business both through good times and through more challenging times. I know that our consistent ability to move fast and to manage risk sets us up to turn these moments to our advantage.

Let me start with the opportunity, which is bigger than ever. The total addressable market is $40 billion: furniture and homewares, home improvement, and New Zealand.

Even as the leading online retailer in our category, we represent just 2.9% of the furniture and homewares market in Australia and only a fraction of a percent of home improvement and New Zealand. There is a lot of room to grow.

As the only at-scale digital native retailer in our category, we are uniquely positioned to benefit both from increasing online penetration and as our millennial customers reach their prime purchasing years. We've built a significant asset in our customer and product data, which is now powering our AI, a brand and product range that our customers love, and a bulky delivery experience they tell us is the best in the category and that we've built over 15 years.

As the business has demonstrated over the last six months, our asset-light operating model enables us not just to pass on value to customers, but to move fast when others can't. On the next slide, I want to focus on what I've seen in my first seven weeks and my initial views of some of the opportunities that are immediately ahead of us.

First, reach. We are the number two specialty furniture retailer in the country by spend, and within the last 12 months, 17% of Australian households in our core segments purchased from us.

A priority for FY 2027 will be building on this reach to improve our brand recognition and overall share of wallet. Second, trust.

We have always had market-leading NPS; our customers are our biggest fans. We will build on that trust to further expand and differentiate our range so that we provide the quality, value, and style that our customers expect, with more of our own private label and exclusive product.

I led marketing and merchandising while at Temple & Webster previously, this will be a particular focus for me. Third, data and AI.

Our retail reporting and data is the best I've ever seen, and we've already developed AI agents to access data and analyze it in natural language. This is just the beginning of the AI opportunity.

The next stage for us is to prioritize more customer-facing innovation, building on our industry-leading data to personalize their experience and improve conversion rates. Fourth, growth beyond our core.

In a prior role, our biggest growth came from international expansion, I know what this can add. Initially, we will be expanding our low-cost New Zealand pilot and qualifying additional markets where there's both a scale opportunity and market dynamics where we can build on our strengths.

Fifth, growth overall. It really is in our DNA as a company.

While we're focused on improving unit economics in the short term given the environment, these and many other growth initiatives are already underway. We're also shaping the longer-term strategy to deliver both top-line and bottom-line growth, and I look forward to updating you on it over the coming months.

Finally, I'd like to give a trading update. Revenue year-to-date is down 13%.

This is a result we expected, and we don't think it's indicative of the full year, given that we're comping 28% growth and have a number of growth initiatives already underway. Importantly, over that same period, our contribution margin dollars have actually grown by 10%, which is a really strong outcome.

This is deliberate. We've chosen to focus on improving our unit economics while the market is soft.

These are my numbers and my team's numbers, and this is the right balance for us this moment. We are a growth business, and we want to finish FY 2027 with strong forward momentum.

As a result of the improvements in our unit economics, we are targeting a 50 to 80% increase in EBITDA to $33 to $40 million in FY 2027. This, once again, demonstrates the flexibility of our business model, and we'll be using this period to further invest in the foundations that will drive consistent top-line and bottom-line growth.

As mentioned, we will brief the market on our strategy to return to double-digit revenue growth in the coming months. Our ultimate goal of becoming the largest Australian retailer in our category is unchanged.

It's been a pleasure returning to Temple & Webster, and I want to thank Mark, Cam, and the team for their warm welcome of me and their commitment to our collective success. With that, I'll open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question.

Your first question comes from James [Breen?] with Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

James Leigh

Hey, team. Thanks for taking my question, and welcome back, Susie.

My questions around some of the assumptions going into FY 2027 target of 33 to 40. Can you help us understand kind of what economic conditions you're factoring in there?

Appreciate it's a wide range, but at the midpoint, it looks like zero growth. What sort of kind of macro conditions are we thinking about in that target range?

Susie Sugden

Lovely to meet you. There are really uncertain conditions at the moment, and we're not guiding revenue.

I am really, as I've said, really consistently focused with the team on building strong momentum through FY 2027. I think we mentioned in the call earlier, we're comping a really tricky period.

It's 28% up year-on-year in the prior year. I don't think the comps are the only thing we're focusing on.

We're also focusing on what we can do internally. Big focus is some of the initiatives I've already talked about, which are underway, and we expect to have an impact through the year.

The macro's very hard to forecast at the moment.

Cameron Barnsley

I think, James, probably thinking back to our May update as well. The market hasn't got any better since May.

We haven't seen an improvement in the macro conditions since then. We're giving ourselves flexibility in that 33 to 40.

It's still an uncertain operating environment. As Susie mentioned, we are expecting to see momentum build through the year, particularly as the comps get easier and as some of these initiatives start to take place.

I wouldn't be focused too much on the trading update. I'd be focused more on what we're expecting to see throughout the entire year.

Also, maybe just call out Q4 as well, which I think is an interesting data point. I did put that Q4 outcome in the deck so people could see what the margin profile was after we made those initiative changes in March.

The Q4 period was pretty much flat year-on-year, comping a 20% in the prior year. I think that gives you a real sense on what an outcome for FY 2027 could look like, as we're able to deliver those unit economics and margin on a flat revenue base against a very strong comp.

James Leigh

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Wilson with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

James Wilson

Hi, team. Thanks for taking my questions.

Just a few from me this morning, if I may. Just firstly, can you give us sort of a sense of the kind of EBITDA margin that you might be tracking at in this first quarter of the year?

Appreciate your fourth quarter run rate was around a 6% mark.

Cameron Barnsley

Thanks for the question, James. Obviously not going to give a running update on quarterly EBITDA performance.

I think you can see the Q4 update, you can see where we were at. Contribution margin dollars are up 10% for the first seven weeks, and I haven't seen anything that's too different to what we were run-rating in Q4.

I'm not going to give quarterly guidance on EBITDA, but I think you can take that Q4 run rate and look forward into FY 2027.

James Wilson

Great. Thanks.

Just another one from me on your $1 billion revenue target for FY 2028. Are we able to get an update on this aspiration?

Susie Sugden

I'll answer that. Because the goal for me isn't a billion dollars.

As we've talked about in the presentation, we want to be and have consistently said we want to be the largest retailer in our category. That's not about a billion dollars, it's about more than two.

I'll come back with more details on our plans to achieve that and to get us back to double-digit revenue growth over the next few months.

James Wilson

Great. Then just one final one from me.

Just on the sort of trading update that you've just reported, how much do you think that maybe some of your margin initiatives in the fourth quarter might have flowed through to the top line in this kind of first seven weeks or first eight weeks period of FY 2027? Do you think there's been any drag at all on your top line from what you've done on margins in the fourth quarter?

Susie Sugden

We're really deliberately balancing margin and growth at the moment, and we think that's the right balance to take during what are quite uncertain macroeconomic conditions. We obviously have some flexibility in that margin, but I'm really encouraged by what we're seeing as our progress in building strong unit economics.

This is what we expected for this period. My focus with the team is on kicking off, or we have kicked off, initial initiatives, which will mean that we can drive both top-line and bottom-line growth.

We expect to be finishing the year with strong momentum on it.

James Wilson

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Forres Salekian?] with Barrenjoey.

Please go ahead.

Forres Salekian

Hi, guys. Congratulations, Susie, on the role.

I guess just first question from me. The feedback we've been hearing from most retailers we speak to is that they're pretty reluctant to take price in the current environment and they're leaning harder into discounting to drive sales just given the softening in the consumer.

How are you thinking about balancing the near-term margin optimization story against protecting your value proposition? I guess how do you think this impacts your ability to return to double-digit growth over time?

Susie Sugden

I think it's a great question, Forres, and lovely to be talking to you. I think my big focus with the team, as you've heard about, is about value, quality, and style.

Value has always been a really important part of Temple & Webster's DNA. While we have adjusted the price up in some portions of our range where we were probably a little bit too cheap, there are still really significant opportunities for value.

There's portions of our range we are 20 to 40% below what you'd see in offline retail. I think that's a really important point to make.

Also, value is also about quality and style, the overall proposition we're offering customers. I remain really confident that as the leading online category specialist, that we're able to deliver customers a better offer all round than any of our competitors.

Cameron Barnsley

I might just add, Forres, it's Cam here. Within the range that we've put out, the guidance range, we do have some flex to go after it if we need to as well.

You can have a look at that Q4 run rate. The implied target ranges for FY 2027 do have some room versus the run rate, there is a little bit of ammunition there as well if we need.

Forres Salekian

Got it. That's clear.

I guess to get top line growing again back to double-digit growth, do you need to wait to see an improvement in the consumer to start reinvesting into marketing, or are there other factors which could catalyze reinvestment to drive growth?

Susie Sugden

No, we are not building our strategy around the macro, and I want to make that really clear. We are laser-focused on driving growth out of our core.

The two big initiatives we're focused on there are really around marketing diversification, making sure that we are getting the most effective reach into our customers, and also around this range exclusivity and private label, making sure that we have a really distinctive range and that it's delivering across style, value, and quality for our customers.

Forres Salekian

That's clear. If I could just squeeze in one more.

It looks like a few of your peers like Wayfair, Castlery, and now Kmart with K Hub have been pushing more into physical stores. How willing are you guys at this stage to pursue growth via physical locations, maybe as an opportunity to generate higher AOVs and more sustainable economics over time?

Susie Sugden

I'm really excited about our brand overall. I've only been back a brief period, but I think there's some interesting ideas for us to look at there.

It's still very early days.

Forres Salekian

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aryan Norozi with Jarden. Please go ahead.

Aryan Norozi

Hey, guys. Hope you're well.

Just a few from me, please. The first one, just one thing I'm trying to reconcile.

Your marketing has obviously gotten more efficient, you're spending less for the same amount of revenue growth, and your pricing hasn't gone up to levels that makes you uncompetitive. Still don't get why the revenue growth has gone backwards.

In 2023, you had 13 rate hikes, and in the 50th of '24, you printed sort of 25% revenue growth. Why is this time different to that sort of 4-year 4-year 3, 4 years ago, please?

Susie Sugden

I do think, obviously, there are some challenging macro conditions out there, and I don't think our category in general is finding that super easy. I would sort of point to we have increased marketing efficiency, but we've also scaled it back a little bit.

That's probably a big part of that revenue growth. When we get to the right point where we feel like we've got the right unit economics on the customers that we're acquiring and that we are focused on the most valuable customer segments, we'll be able to increase that again.

Cameron Barnsley

It's also a bit of a different situation now versus four years ago, Aryan. The environment's quite different.

Aryan Norozi

Right, gotcha. Then just the capitalized intangibles, there's about four I think $3, $4 million of annualized intangible capitalization versus what you were doing before this result.

Is that a permanent feature of the business, and is that just shifting stuff out of cost into capex now?

Cameron Barnsley

No, it reflects a move towards developing internal AI solutions and technologies within the business. We have ramped up that area in the last 12 months, and that obviously is reflected in the capitalization.

Aryan Norozi

Right. Last one, please.

Just on the exclusive, it's grown from sort of 49% to 54% of sales first half on second half '26, which is great. Just like with all of that step-up, the private label, can you just give us an idea, please, around how big the private label part of the business is?

Cameron Barnsley

I can take that one, Aryan. We've talked a bit before about the private label exclusive dropship split.

Private label and dropship exclusive has increased in the past six months. Private label still roughly about 30%, but has moved up slightly, and then the balance 51% is exclusive.

That exclusive dropship is still doing the heavy lifting. Both are growing.

Aryan Norozi

That's good to see revenue growth. Yes.

Cameron Barnsley

Yeah.

Aryan Norozi

Awesome. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chami Ratnapala with Bell Potter Securities. Please go ahead.

Chami Ratnapala

Hi, team, and a big welcome to Susie. Thanks for taking my questions.

I think the first one would be on the delivered margin, given that it's run-rating slightly above the sort of range you've talked about. Could you talk to how you are able to maintain this as conditions probably doesn't improve, get worse into FY 2027?

Susie Sugden

We are feeling really confident after Q4 on our forecast for FY 2027. As Cam has mentioned, we have a little bit of flexibility in there.

We're running a little bit ahead of our targets, and so can use that as we're thinking about our promotional strategy going forward. The big things that will drive our margins overall is really around that value, style, and quality, making sure that we are continuing to deliver the best range in our category as the leading online furniture specialist.

That's the big focus for us.

Cameron Barnsley

I think the other thing to think about, Chami, there is obviously the mix of exclusive and private label as that continues to trend upwards should support that. There'll be a little bit of FX this year.

It's not obviously only 30% of our business private label, which is US dollar denominated, but there should be a little bit of FX tailwind on that 30% as well this year.

Chami Ratnapala

Great. Thanks for that.

Then how are suppliers or the dropshippers taking the new changes for the fourth quarter profit optimization initiatives?

Susie Sugden

Good question. One of the things that I did when I first started in the business was sit in on a couple of our supplier meetings.

It's a really important part of our business, and their growth has been a big part of our growth for the last 15 years. What I heard in those meetings was actually quite a lot of support from suppliers who thought that the measures we're putting in place prioritized customer experience and meant that the suppliers that were performing really well got prioritized on our site and in our business.

It's been a big big plus for us, I think, and for our customers.

Chami Ratnapala

Great. Okay.

Thanks for that. Maybe if I could ask one more.

Just on the fixed cost leverage in a low revenue environment, what's the level of or what are the layers of efficiencies, further efficiencies, to maintain the fixed cost leverage there in the guidance range that you are expecting for the year?

Cameron Barnsley

Thanks, Chami. I'll take that one.

It's Cameron here. Look, we haven't assumed any real change in the fixed cost base as a percentage, and you can see that target range of 10 to 11%.

That's pretty consistent with where we were for FY 2026. We haven't assumed any reduction in that cost base into our FY 2027 numbers.

Obviously that's a reasonable portion of our cost base, and if we need to take action on that, we will. At this point in time, I think we're consistent with what we did in FY 2026.

Chami Ratnapala

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions, team.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Bales with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Oh

James Bales

hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Firstly, customer acquisition has slowed. I'd like to understand exactly how the economics of customer acquisition have changed.

How much of it has been you guys proactively lifting the hurdles of what you think your return profiles should look like versus just the opportunity set that's out there with your partners? In tying that into your earlier comments, Susie, around marketing diversification, how should that sort of change or move the needle on the return that you see for that spend?

Susie Sugden

It's a great question, James. Thank you.

It's been very deliberate. We've made the choice to focus on customers where we think we're going to get the unit economics that we need.

More broadly, you can hear in a lot of the initiatives we're focused on, making sure we're focused on the most valuable customer segments in our sector. What we want to do in terms of diversification is really build on our brand, build on our strength in content and inspirational content, and diversify our channel mix that way.

My expectation is that should continue to improve the effectiveness of our marketing and reduce the overall cost of sales.

James Bales

Got it. Then in terms of the outlook for FY 2027, you're sort of starting with negative sales momentum early on in the first half.

When you sort of think about the pathway to get back to growth, how should we think about the time frame to get back to sort of being level with the PCP?

Susie Sugden

We're not giving guidance on revenue, but I can say that we don't think that the sort of initial trading period of this year is indicative of how the year's going to play out overall. There's a couple of reasons behind that.

The first is we're comping 28% growth in the prior period. The second is we're not just relying on comps.

As you've heard, we have a number of initiatives already underway and strong margins to support us driving growth. Our expectation is we're going to finish FY 2027 with really strong momentum, leading into FY 2028.

James Bales

Great. Sorry, Cam.

Cameron Barnsley

I wasn't going to say anything, James.

James Bales

All right. Then I guess one other question was when we spoke following the May trading update, you seemed very confident that even in a flattish sales environment that $40 million EBITDA was achievable.

Can you just help me understand why you've moved the range to where it is today?

Cameron Barnsley

I'll take that one, James. I will speak too.

Good to talk to you. Look, I think there's obviously the 40 million is still part of the range.

We still have some belief in that target. I would just remind everyone that the range that we've put forward is 50 to 80% up on FY 2026, which is quite a big increase.

The reason for the range is basically to give us some flexibility as we come into this year. As we go through the year, we'll be able to narrow that range and get more precise on it.

At this point in time, that range gives us real flexibility to be able to use our levers as we always do to drive top line. So, 40 million is definitely still there on the cards.

Scenario run in May, not much has changed since May, conditions are still weak. That range is just giving us that extra flexibility that we want going into the new year.

James Bales

Got it. Then maybe one last one.

You've had really strong momentum in Home Improvement and Trade & Commercial. When we think about the momentum heading into FY 2027, how is the core homewares and furnishing business performing relative to that 13%?

Is there a big divergence there, or are they all sort of moving together with the macro?

Cameron Barnsley

I won't go into specific details on the different adjacencies and the growth rates. We'll obviously do that later in the year.

The trading update 13% down is reflective of the overall business, as our trading updates always are. Home Improvement, B2B, and the core have different growth rates as they always do.

We'll obviously update you later in the year as we get through the half on the different adjacencies and their growth rates.

Susie Sugden

I'll just add that my priority is the core, and I think it's the biggest opportunity. We're still only 2.9% of furniture and homewares, and that's where our biggest dollar prize exists.

That said, we do have really meaningful opportunities in adjacencies, and so I will also be working with the team to form our past strategies around that. The priority for us and in the initiatives we've talked about is really on how do we make sure we take advantage of that growth at the core.

James Bales

Perfect. I really appreciate the call.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Teeger with Citi. Please go ahead.

Oh

Sam Teeger

hi, team, and welcome, Susie. Susie, it'd be good to get your perspective as to how the business has changed since you were here last and what is your priority number one for this year?

What's the most important thing you want to achieve?

Susie Sugden

Hi, Sam. It's amazing coming back.

I feel like it's a real gift to come back with a lot of familiarity with the business, but still fresh eyes. I think the exciting thing for me is a lot of what has made Temple & Webster really successful up till now is still the same things that are going to carry us forward.

We're talking about building on our amazing range, improving our marketing, effectiveness, all areas where we've really been successful before. We are going to use potentially slightly different tools and have been doing that over the last quarter.

At core, the objectives we have for the business is still the same. In terms of my priorities, really, I've talked a little bit about the biggest opportunity really is in growth of the core.

The business is bigger now than it was when I was here last, but we're still only 2.9% of the market. There is so much upside.

That's the area that I really want to make sure that we nail this financial year.

Sam Teeger

All right. Appreciate you don't see it as indicative of what we can expect for the full year, but can you help us just unpack that revenue decline of 13%?

Any comments around traffic, orders, conversion, and promotions, customer acquisition would be helpful because there is a lot of interest in it. Thank you.

Susie Sugden

I'd just say that, as I've mentioned, there's quite a lot of context there. The comps from the prior year.

I think secondly, just the broader macro environment. The thing that I am most excited about looking at the numbers from FY 2026 and that we're going into now is how our contribution margin is increasing.

Thriving margin dollars is ultimately how we will continue to deliver top-line and bottom-line growth. That's my big priority.

We want to do both. Yeah.

Cameron Barnsley

I think maybe, Sam, just to, once again, go back to Q4. I think nothing has really changed since the update we did in May.

Obviously the macro is a little bit worse than it was, but it's pretty consistent. I'd definitely look at that Q4 period as indicative of the first seven weeks of this year as well, but noting that that Q4 period we did do pretty flat revenue growth on a 20% comp.

July was abnormally strong last year, it was really high. Yeah.

Sam Teeger

Is the weakness more a function of traffic, is it orders, is it conversion, within the sales? What kind of element is driving most of the weakness?

Cameron Barnsley

Look, we're not going to go into all the different drivers, but what I would say is that, through the last half, we did see slight weakness in conversion. You can see that in the numbers, the 2.9% is still okay, but down from 3% the year before.

Slight weakness there. Traffic is still okay, people are still browsing, but there's just that little bit more time taken to make a decision in this environment.

I think that is reflective of what was happening in July, but also what was happening in the last quarter, too.

Sam Teeger

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Garth Francis with MST Marquee. Please go ahead.

Garth Francis

Hi, Susie and Cameron. Thanks for taking my questions.

If you can just talk about the competitive environment that we've touched on, and specifically gross margin, yeah, gross margin was well-managed, but still down in the second half. You mentioned currency being a little bit of tailwind in private label.

You're getting help from suppliers in terms of promotional funding. Are you having to self-fund promotions, and what does that mean for FY 2027?

How to do something similar?

Cameron Barnsley

Thanks, Garth. I can take that question.

You made a comment there around self-funding promotions. Our funding of promotions is similar to where it was for the last half and last quarter as well.

That sort of hasn't changed. On the FX piece, we didn't see much of a tailwind through FY 2026 on FX, because our hedge rate was below the spot rate.

Going into 2027, as some of those hedges have rolled off, we will see some tailwind from FX. It's not huge, I'm not going to say it's contributing to significant deliver margin improvement, but maybe 10, 20 basis points should come from an FX improvement.

I think more broadly, yes, the delivered margin was well-managed. It's obviously run-rating above 33% for the last quarter.

That gives us confidence going into 2027 and the outcomes that we've put on in the presentation, these target ranges.

Garth Francis

Great, thanks. Then you've highlighted in the presentation that at the AGM we're going to get some more detail around the strategy.

Susie, you've alluded to a few of those things already. Why couldn't we get a full update today just in terms of what the strategic initiatives are?

Is the AGM just going to be used as a first progress report as well in terms of how you're tracking with those initiatives, and are those all in place, or are they still being worked through, and is that why you haven't given much color on it today?

Susie Sugden

I've been in the business for seven weeks, and it's been really productive seven weeks, I think. The observations that we've put in the presentation are really areas that we want to focus on, and we will give an update, a progress update on those initiatives around the AGM.

There will likely be some additional areas that we sort of explore together with the team over the next couple of months and can talk about then as well. The idea would be that we're coming back with more of a strategy update at the February results announcement.

Garth Francis

Okay. Thank you.

Then you also alluded in your remarks that the international markets outside New Zealand were an opportunity. Are there any restrictions with your current platform if you can't enter, and which would be potential targets in your view?

Cameron Barnsley

I might take this one. Look, there's no real restrictions on markets.

The main restriction, to speak, is around product. It needs to be compliant in different markets that we go to, which we have a team that knows that really well and can help with that.

There's no restrictions. It's more product itself: is it the right fit for that market, is the aesthetic right, is the size right.

We have such a broad range, such a differentiated catalog that there are products that will suit different markets in our current catalog quite nicely. In terms of restrictions, it's more about where's the opportunity, where's there a gap in the market, where there's the right market size, etc.

That's

Garth Francis

perfect. Just in terms of the exclusivity, it sounds like you have a number of suppliers that are on the larger side.

Is there a risk that as other retailers offer a marketplace and have a homewares skew, that the law partners might look to also offer products on those platforms? I guess the question would become how beneficial is it for them to be on Temple & Webster versus via Bunnings or another such marketplace?

Susie Sugden

Thanks, Garth. I think actually, it's a good point to really emphasize.

We've been competing with entry-level marketplaces since the history of Temple & Webster. Kmart marketplace was previously Catch, and we competed with it then.

What our customers tell us and what we know internally is that there's a real opportunity and a need for category-focused retailers. We provide a level of product service, value, and quality that generalist retailers can't really match.

We're confident that we're going to continue to deliver that.

Garth Francis

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Campbell with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

John Campbell

Thanks, guys. Welcome, Susie, to the role.

Just in terms of online penetration in Australia, we're well below comparable economies offshore. The US, I think, is probably around 35%.

Has online penetration stalled in Australia? If so, what do you think can really get it going again?

Cameron Barnsley

I might take that one, John. Look, we haven't got recent data on this.

There's certain data sources that we look at. The last data point we had for Australia was 21% online penetration, and you're right, US penetration 35%, UK penetration is about 30.

I look more anecdotally at other retailers who disclose online/offline. It's not always in furniture and homewares, but more broadly.

I do think the online penetration story is still there and still growing. Not just in our category, but in other categories.

We just haven't seen the data, to speak, to back it up, but certainly anecdotally in looking at other retailers, I do think that online penetration march is continuing, obviously, as a tailwind for our business.

Susie Sugden

We've also have some customer research which has talked about demographic segments that are more interested in purchasing online. Our core segment being millennials are much much more likely to purchase online than older customers.

Again, that gives us a bit of a tailwind as a business. As those millennial customers hit their prime purchasing years, that's going to be a structural upside for us.

Thanks.

John Campbell

Thanks for that, Susie. Just to put it in context, the trading update so far this year, what typically would the first quarter represent of annual sales?

Cameron Barnsley

The first quarter is not not our biggest quarter. Obviously the second quarter of financial year is biggest with with Black Friday, Cyber Monday.

Then the fourth quarter is is reasonably big with the June end of financial year sales. The fourth quarter is, is less than 25% of of full-year revenue.

Sorry, first quarter is less than 25% of full-year revenue. It is it is one of the the weaker quarters in terms of delivery to the overall revenue line.

John Campbell

Okay. That's helpful.

Just last question from me. The spike, I guess you might say, in delivered margin in Q4, very high, well above the run rate for '26, and then the slight drop-off in marketing spend in Q4, Can you draw any dotted line between that and the weaker sales performance in the first quarter, so far in '27?

Susie Sugden

We can, actually. It's been a very deliberate choice to prioritize unit economics.

Our expectation is those changes are permanent. We're building the foundation for profitable top-line and bottom-line growth.

We want to, as you can see in the forecast that we have for FY 2027, maintain those margins loosely in line with the established pattern that we had from quarter four. Now I and the team are really focused on how we drive top-line revenue growth as well, making sure we calibrate that balance correctly and also driving it through the range and marketing improvements we're talking about in the core.

John Campbell

We can basically see the delivered margin, the higher level, as a sort of a new line in the sand, if you like?

Susie Sugden

We agree.

John Campbell

That's helpful. Thanks, Susie.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Wei-Weng Chen from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Wei-Weng Chen

Hey, guys. Thanks.

Just two questions from me. I guess the tricky part for me is, with your trading, when you're going well and you're doing double-digit growth, the messaging is that you're taking share, but then I guess you give us a minus 13% trading update.

Is the reverse true? Are you guys ceding share, whether that's kind of on purpose or otherwise?

Also I guess macro has been given as a reason for kind of some of the softer trading, but I'm kind of struggling with why Temple & Webster is so highly sensitive to the macro and what can be done to reduce this volatility?

Cameron Barnsley

Wei-Weng, I'll take the first part of your question on market share. For the full year, our market share was 2.9% versus 2.7% last year based on the data that we've seen.

We haven't got good data on July yet and August, obviously, it's still in play. We don't really know or have a sense on what market share looks like.

I think if we go through this year and we're able to hold market share at 2.9% whilst increasing EBITDA 50 to 80%, I think that's a really good outcome, actually. We don't have a sense on what share running out through July at this point.

Then secondly, your point around macro sensitivity, I'd just remind you that the changes that we've put forward in March were a deliberate rebalancing, right, to balance profit in a difficult macro environment. The macro was one of the reasons why we thought it was prudent to do that and still think it is prudent to do that.

It's not the overall driver. It was decisions that we've made to make these optimization this period.

I wouldn't call it highly sensitive to the macro, but was one of the reasons why we put in place some of these initiatives.

Wei-Weng Chen

Cool. Then lastly, just on NPS.

You've mentioned NPS a few times on the call. If I look at your slide on page six, your customer satisfaction levels are actually at post-pandemic lows.

I'm just wondering what is going on here. You previously spoke to the benefits of AI customer service.

Could falling NPS be a sign that AI service is actually hurting the customer experience?

Cameron Barnsley

Look, I think there was one abnormal thing this year, which was our Melbourne warehouse transfer. We talked about it.

We moved into new premises, and that took about six months, and as you do that, that's a pretty large project. We can isolate NPS impact for that.

Outside of that period, NPS levels were stronger. It was a bit of a one-off impact on our NPS number of 60.

Wei-Weng Chen

Cool. Your view is AI service is not impacting customer service?

Cameron Barnsley

No, not at all. I think we've said before that the AI tool has really good, actually higher NPS score than the average, we don't see that at all.

Wei-Weng Chen

Cool. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Owen Humphries with Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Owen Humphries

I think most of my questions have been answered. Hi, Susie, and welcome to the team, or welcome back.

One question I would just ask is just to understand how paid marketing moved in July relative to revenue. Because revenue growth was down 13%, what was paid marketing down?

Susie Sugden

I think the best guidance to give you is just to have a look at how Q4 run-rated through the end of last year, and that gives you a bit of a feel for our settings on marketing and margin overall. Those settings remain pretty consistent.

Owen Humphries

I guess just on unit economics, is the unit economics now where you happy where they are in July, is that given there's been a bit of structure?

Susie Sugden

I think it's something actually gives me a lot of confidence going into the year, is that we've been able to adapt and improve our unit economics this consistently over the last four months. Very very pleased with it.

The next focus really is on how we get some of these initiatives we've been talking about to begin having an impact, we're back and focused on double-digit top-line growth.

Owen Humphries

Fine. I'll leave it there.

Susie Sugden

Thanks, Owen.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Susie Sugden for closing comments.

Susie Sugden

Thanks, everybody. Thanks for spending your time with us this morning.

I'm so excited to be back at the business. As we've discussed, these are uncertain times, but I'm taking really positive confidence from the impact we've had on margins and unit economics over the last three, four months, and I'm looking forward to talking with you all again about our plans for a return to double-digit top-line growth and our longer-term strategy over the next few months.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating.

You may now disconnect.