Post Holdings, Inc.

Post Holdings, Inc.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026

Operator

Welcome to the Post Holdings Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation.

If you would like to ask a question at that time, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. If at any point your question has been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing *2.

Others can hear your questions clearly, we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality. Lastly, if you should require operator assistance, please press *0.

I would now like to turn the call over to Daniel O'Rourke, Investor Relations for Post.

Daniel O'Rourke

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for Post's second quarter fiscal 2026 earnings question-and-answer session.

I'm joined this morning by Rob Vitale, our Chairman and CEO, Nico Catoggio, our COO, and Matt Mainer, our CFO and Treasurer. This call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available on our website at postholdings.com.

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that should be carefully considered by investors, as actual results could differ materially from these statements. These forward-looking statements are current as of the date of this call, and management undertakes no obligation to update these statements.

The press release and written management remarks that support today's call are posted on our website in the Investor section. This call will discuss certain non-GAAP measures.

For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP measure, see our press release issued yesterday and posted on our website. We hope you had a chance to review our management remarks.

The key highlights are that our diversified portfolio had strong performance in Q2 and delivered adjusted EBITDA above expectations. However, given new headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, we maintained our previous adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Meanwhile, we continued aggressive share repurchases, and fiscal year to date, we have reduced our share count by 15%. Finally, our strong cash flow, liquidity, and credit metrics continue to afford us significant flexibility for opportunistic capital allocation.

With that, I'll briefly turn the call over to Matt.

Matt Mainer

Thanks, Daniel. Setting aside the business performance, I'm sure you all saw our announcement yesterday on our CEO succession plans.

On behalf of our whole team, congratulations to Nico. Really well-deserved.

You've done a fantastic job leading PCB, and we are confident that will translate to more of the same as you transition into leading Post. To Rob, we have all learned from the best and truly appreciate your leadership over the past 12 years.

As much as Rob is respected by so many on this phone call, it is even more so within the walls of our company. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

The floor is now open for questions. At this time, if you have a question or comment, please press *1 on your telephone keypad.

If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing *2. Again, we ask that you pick up your handset when posing your questions to provide optimal sound quality.

Thank you. Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Your line is now open.

Andrew Lazar

Great, thanks so much. Rob, congratulations to you on a terrific run as CEO, and glad you're staying on as Chairman.

All I can say is I think many other packaged food names would benefit mightily from taking a page from your operating and capital allocation playbook. Nico, congratulations to you on being named CEO.

Maybe --

Nicolas Catoggio

Thank you. --

Andrew Lazar

to start, yeah, sure. Just a question maybe on pricing for the industry and Post.

I realize there's still quite a bit of uncertainty, but should the industry face another round of more significant inflation, do you think pricing could be one of the levers used this time around, given consumers have been kind of already pushing back on price points where they are today, and some are actually lowering prices with less than stellar results thus far? I'm just curious on your view on that, and how does Post sort of think about that?

Nicolas Catoggio

Thanks, Andrew. What I would say is it depends on where inflation falls.

If it is in the low single digit, I think we will see more of CPGs trying to absorb that within their P&L, and that could be in the form of maybe lowering promotional intensity. If it is more than that, we will probably see more targeted pricing.

Then

Andrew Lazar

maybe just on on pet food. I'm trying to get a sense of what our expectations should be going forward in in pet, because I think this quarter is is the current quarter, I believe, is when the restates really happens in earnest in the marketplace.

How do you think about turning a brand around in a in a subcategory of dry dog food that's, sort of struggling a bit right now relative to some other parts of pet?

Nicolas Catoggio

Yeah. Let me So on pet, I think about it in kind of three big buckets.

One is a bit out of our control, that is the category has been slower than what we anticipated, and especially dry dog food. 60% of our portfolio is dry dog food.

As we shared in our remarks, that was 4% down in pounds. That's that's about 20% of our, call it, gap to the category.

The rest you can think about it in half and half in in two buckets. One is what we shared on 9Lives.

9Lives is it's it's We raised prices on a third of the of the brand that is more functional. As we raised prices, we saw higher elasticities than what we anticipated.

We lost distribution in a couple of of retailers. That, in our mind, is fairly straightforward.

It's If you If you remember, less than a year ago, we were having the same conversation about Gravy Train. We raised prices.

Remember that these brands have lower margins, and that's why we we do what we do. We focus on profit.

Remember Gravy Train, we raised prices, we saw the same elasticities, we fixed that with rollbacks in the short term, and now we've fixed it with price pack architecture, and that brand in one of our largest retailers is growing at 40% in pounds now. We see it as the same playbook, right?

We we we tried price points, elasticity was a bit higher, we can solve solve it in the short term with rollbacks, and then longer term, call it a couple of quarters from now, we should fix it with price pack architecture, it's fairly straightforward. Then the third bucket is Nutrish.

We are in early stages of the relaunch, and that will take probably the entire Q3 to actually fully hit the market. It's it's happening, it's flowing in, but it's still, especially in the food channel, taking a bit longer to be fully reflected on shelf.

That one, if you remember, we commented on that one, it's a full relaunch. New positioning, new packaging, and new price points.

What we feel encouraged about is where it's been fully relaunched, one of our largest retailers, we are already seeing sequential improvement week after week. The last week of April, we already saw the brand flat to last year in a category that is again declining.

That's a positive, but it's still early on, and and we probably need a couple more months. By Q4, we should actually start seeing the the the category kind of showing at least flat to slight growth versus year a year ago.

That's that's how we think about pet.

Andrew Lazar

Great. Thanks so much for the color, and congratulations again.

Nicolas Catoggio

Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Smith with Stifel.

Your line is now open.

Matthew Smith

Hi, good morning. You had another strong EBITDA and cash flow performance in the quarter, and the guidance reiteration referenced caution around new cost pressure and uncertainty.

Are there specific areas of the business where you're seeing these higher costs? Are you seeing an impact from a more cautious consumer, is the uncertainty more focused on the cost side?

Matt Mainer

I think directly we're seeing the cost impacts, Matt, really around fuel charges and surcharges. We've got some coverage or hedges in place, but this is exposure beyond those coverages, and just given the dramatic increase in diesel, that flows through to across the company, especially in North America.

That's really the key driver.

Matthew Smith

Thanks, Matt. Just a follow-up.

The cash flow performance has been strong and supported the share repurchases to date while holding leverage flat. You called out the strong liquidity position Post maintains.

How would you characterize the M&A environment? Are you seeing an increase in asset availability?

Do you think seller expectations are reasonable, and has there been an impact to deal flow from Middle East disruption and uncertainty? Thank you.

Matt Mainer

I think it continues to be a bit of more of the same. You certainly have some assets, some private investments that haven't come to market yet, and I think that's a nod to just where public multiples are and where a clearing price might be, there's still some potential transactions sitting on the sidelines.

That aside, you continue to see some of our larger competitors talk about maybe separating portions of their portfolio. We've seen that happen already in a couple of cases in the last year.

I think those are larger, more transformational transactions. Again, we look at everything, but something we would evaluate.

Then I think it's fair the barbell then you have the smaller tuck-ins that are available, that are for us more synergistic, obviously easier to digest, but I think the backdrop for us is really where our share price is trading and implied multiple, and again, we laid that out in the prepared remarks, and that's really our benchmark, our comparison, and it continues to be a high bar, but we continue to look at all that's out there.

Matthew Smith

Appreciate it, Matt. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

Your line is now open.

David Palmer

Thanks, and congratulations on your career so far, Rob, and all the value creation.

Rob Vitale

Thanks

David Palmer

to you, Nico.

Nicolas Catoggio

Thank you.

David Palmer

Thank you. I want to ask a first question on food service profitability.

Clearly there was a moment of a lot of trade into higher-margin value eggs as egg prices were higher, and egg prices have come down, and it's been a darn good profitability run here. I'm wondering how you're thinking about profitability evolution going forward, maybe sort of a mid-cycle profitability rising from here as you see some of your accounts doing better lately.

In other words, I'm trying to figure out if $125 million a quarter is really going to be the right run rate into fiscal 2027 or if you see upside to that, and then I have a follow-up.

Nicolas Catoggio

We still see that as the run rate. Again, in the quarter, there were so many puts and takes between lapping HPAI, supply constraints, and pricing and cost are in excess of pricing last year, but our supply and demand remain in balance, while we don't provide guidance segment by segment, we see as going back to our run rate.

David Palmer

Got it. Then similar to a previous question on pet, I just want to get a sense on cereal of your confidence in getting what I think would be your goal of a low single-digit decline rate to really have that pull its own weight.

Cereal has been rough. What is the confidence in getting to that, and what's the outlook there?

Thank you. Yeah.

Nicolas Catoggio

Let me start with the category. The category, as we shared in the remarks, has been better compared to where we were a year ago.

For the quarter, the category was down 3% in pounds, and if you have a look at April, it's 2.5% down, it is improving. It's still not kind of where it was pre-pandemic, but it's getting there.

That's the category. Our portfolio, we are extremely pleased where we are.

Q2 was another quarter where we were still working through the transition of assortment, especially in the food channel, to actually be better prepared or have higher return on promotional spend. Because of that, our promotional spend was down a bit versus prior year, and still we were the only large player that actually had flat dollar market share year over year.

We feel really good about our portfolio, and we feel good about the improvement in the category.

David Palmer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Thomas Palmer with J.P.

Morgan. Your line is now open.

Thomas Palmer

Good morning. I'd like to echo my congratulations to both of you, and appreciate all the help, Rob, as I've ramped on Post.

Rob Vitale

Thank you.

Thomas Palmer

Wanted to maybe follow up on David's question on the food service business, just some of the egg dynamics. Obviously, in the quarter, falling egg prices seem to be a tailwind for earnings, especially based on some of the disclosures about input costs.

I did want to ask one on kind of the prospect of either lowering prices in your view here or whether you are seeing any maybe shift by customers, given how cheap whole eggs are, to kind of shifting in the direction of the more labor-intensive side of starting with whole eggs instead of buying prepared eggs products? Just want to make sure that neither of those is something we should be looking out for.

Thanks.

Nicolas Catoggio

Sure. In terms of the switching, I think that's obviously a risk we evaluate, but honestly, given the value proposition of what we found, especially in the larger operators, is once they switch to our value-added products, they're able to take that labor out of their system, and they see the benefits of the consistency, food safety, other things with the product.

It's quite sticky. I'd say that maybe the risk is around some of the smaller independent operators, which is a much smaller component of our business, where they have a little more flexibility in the back of the house to make that switch.

Again, I think by and large, the majority of the portfolio sees that change is quite sticky.

Thomas Palmer

Thanks for that. Wanted to ask on Weetabix, just the commentary about the license and how maybe that reported sales were a bit worse than underlying consumption trends for the broader business.

How big is kind of a license impact that we should be thinking about, and to what extent is 2Q reflective of the kind of the full magnitude we should be thinking about in the quarters that follow? Thanks.

Nicolas Catoggio

Sure. In terms of what that was, that was related to Oreo O's licensing agreement that we have, and I believe we have another quarter before we fully lap that going away.

In terms of just when you think about from a volume standpoint looking out the balance of the year, would expect better year-over-year performance as we lap that in the second half. I think as a reminder, we've seen the category come back to more flat, which is historically the right spot for what we've seen out of cereal in the UK.

Weetabix continues to have, when I say Weetabix, the yellow box product in particular, has some very strong momentum behind it and continues to outperform. I think as we lap the Oreo O's and that comes away as we get into Q3, would expect to start to see better performance overall out of our portfolio with that.

Thomas Palmer

Thanks for that.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Marks with Jefferies.

Your line is now open.

Scott Marks

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking our questions, and again congrats to you Nico and Rob.

Rob Vitale

Thank you. Thanks.

Scott Marks

Wanted to touch on Weetabix off the back of Tom's question there, just more so on the profitability side. Obviously, margins on that business are still significantly below what they had been.

Just wondering if you can help us understand the path back towards that 30% level, and how we should be thinking about opportunities within that business? Sure.

Matt Mainer

Scott, I think, first of all, just a reminder, UFIT continues to grow nicely within the portfolio. It's a co-man's business, but as it grows in sales, it's a lower-margin business given the co-man nature of it.

I think that's realistically taking the top off of reaching 30%, which is a good thing, because we're still growing profit dollars. In terms of just sequential improvement from where we're at now, we were able to execute some network optimization at the end of March and close a facility on the private label side given our Deeside acquisition a couple of years ago.

That was part of that plan. We were able to execute it, and that will lead to better profitability in the second half.

Would expect, as you look at EBITDA margins, sequential improvement that's noticeable in Q3 and Q4 relative to the first half.

Scott Marks

Appreciate the thoughts there. Then just maybe shifting over to refrigerated retail, obviously very strong volume performance in the quarter.

I know you called out a little bit of Easter, the timing benefit. Just wondering if you can help us understand kind of the magnitude of benefit there, and how we should be thinking about run rate for that business kind of in the back half?

Thanks.

Matt Mainer

Sure. We saw the pretty significant lift in dinner sides or sides for the business at 12% growth.

The biggest driver certainly was Easter, and we see that as you look historically, when Easter falls, it's a big lift. I'd say that's a majority of that year-over-year movement given Easter was in Q3 last year, was in Q2 this year.

The other contributor was certainly the new private label products that we've rolled out at the beginning of the fiscal year. Those continue to do well.

Arguably, they probably had a little Easter momentum behind them as well, but those are really the two drivers. Obviously, Easter will fall away, but we lap with continued lapping of private label introduction until we get to the end of the year.

Nicolas Catoggio

Scott, I would add that there was some underlying volume growth for our branded portfolio. It's just, of course, it's the 12, if you had to guess, it's call it a third, a third, a third, but between underlying volume growth, private label, and Easter, give or take.

Scott Marks

Appreciate it. Thanks, I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Marc Torrente with Wells Fargo Securities.

Your line is now open.

Marc Torrente

Hey, good morning, and thank you for the questions. Rob, Nico, congratulations as well.

I guess just first on the incremental cost impact from energy that you are expecting, has that started to flow through the P&L yet? Is it more of a ramping dynamic through the back half?

When would you decide to take pricing action, if needed, and how quickly could that provide some offset?

Matt Mainer

Sure. We certainly are seeing the impacts as we got to the end of Q2 and into the beginning of Q3 here.

Pretty consistent, I would say, depending on the level of hedges we had in place through the balance of the year, but I think you can think of it about as a pretty average run rate, assuming the war extends through the end of the fiscal year, which is what's in our base assumption. Pricing, sorry.

That one is business by business, but for the most part, right now we're assuming that will absorb that through the P&L. If this expands beyond this fiscal year, we will probably then think about pricing.

Again, it really depends on where inflation falls. Right now we're seeing it in fuel and a little bit in packaging.

If these things actually get worse, we will have to think about pricing, and it's probably going to be in the new fiscal year. Again, way too early to say.

Marc Torrente

Understood. Thank you.

Then maybe just an update on the performance of 8th Avenue since folding in the business. What was the contribution in the quarter since I guess this was the first quarter of just having the ongoing business?

Then how's the integration and synergy capture progressing? Thanks.

Yeah.

Nicolas Catoggio

The underlying business performance is in line with the deal model, we're pleased, with puts and takes and kind of some categories slightly better, some categories slightly worse, but for the most part it's in line with the deal model. We feel really good.

Then the integration is going extremely well. Synergies are a bit ahead of the plan, and we should be hitting run rate towards the end of this fiscal as we anticipated.

We feel really good about the combination of both, right? The team stayed focused, no distractions, and so the business is performing and we are probably overdelivering on the synergies.

Marc Torrente

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities.

Your line is now open.

John Baumgartner

Good morning, thanks for the question. Maybe, first off, just to Rob, really fun ride for the past decade, and just many thanks for all your insights and interactions over the years.

It was really a great learning experience. Thank you and all the best in your future endeavors.

Rob Vitale

Thank you.

John Baumgartner

Nico, congrats on the opportunity as well. Thank you both so much.

Nicolas Catoggio

Thanks so much. First off,

John Baumgartner

relating to the ready-to-drink protein shakes, you understand this category very well. You've made the capital commitment to the manufacturing facilities.

I'm curious, first, your perspective on the sustainability of category growth and your participation as a manufacturer, just given the influx of new brands coming in. How do you think about the competitive environment through a manufacturer's lens?

Second, given the de-rating of public equities in RTD, and maybe also those of private assets as well, how do you think about re-engaging in RTD as a brand owner again? Presumably, it's growth accretive, free cash accretive, you get synergies from repatriating volume to the vertical operator.

How do you think about your position in that category right now and going forward?

Rob Vitale

I think that we have to be careful about questions that we answer from a perspective of BellRing. I think it's entirely appropriate to answer questions from a maker, but not as a brand owner.

Let you talk about the

Matt Mainer

Again, I think in terms of the shake business, I think we continue to see opportunities there to grow with BellRing. We're a key supplier of theirs.

We've gotten our house in better order in terms of just volume on the shake side, I think we're feeling better about that business. We've talked about just some higher costs that we're trying to work through in terms of higher than anticipated around just the manufacturing process, and some of the costs we're absorbing, but on the volume side, we're seeing better performance, and there's certainly demand for the volume that we are pulling through on the BellRing side.

John Baumgartner

Thanks for that. Then my follow-up, we're seeing some pockets of the industry where food service brands are making some really nice inroads in terms of market share growth in retail grocery and making that channel crossover, soup, french fries, mashed potatoes.

You have the presence of Bob Evans already. I'm curious, given how tough volume growth is for a lot of these traditional retail brands, how do you think about leveraging your manufacturing assets to maybe expand Bob Evans into new categories or license other food service brands to enter additional categories within your meals orientation?

Just have you considered that as a means of growth, potentially leveraging your assets at all?

Rob Vitale

I think you said it right. That's a lot of what the Bob Evans business is, right?

It does leverage a lot of the assets from Michael Foods. As kind of expanding to other categories, I think that's the Bob Evans team, like any of our teams, assess that all the time, and depends on kind of what they see as their ability to win in the category and returns back.

I would actually highlight that the Bob Evans business is essentially that leverages the Michael Foods assets.

John Baumgartner

Great. Thanks for your time this morning.

Operator

Thank you. We'll go next to Carla Casella with J.P.

Morgan. Your line is now open.

Carla Casella

Hi, thanks for taking the question. You talked a bit about private brand today, and I guess it's raising the question, how much of your business today is private brand, and for which category, where are you the highest as a percentage of the segment?

Is there more opportunity there? I guess this would fall in the side of margin opportunity as well.

Nicolas Catoggio

Post Consumer Brands is where we have actually the largest private label brand, and the highest in terms of percentage of the total business, and it's around 20% of the business is private label. If I understood your question is what is our position, we have a very strong position in cereal and granola and peanut butter.

We are a smaller player in private label in pet. We are more of a premium private label player in pet.

In terms of opportunities, we see opportunities in all those categories, and in general, in all categories that we play in, we will always consider how to leverage the branded and private label portfolio, right?

Carla Casella

So. It sounds like you're growing more on the refrigerated side, and I'm wondering if there's any private label with Weetabix and in Europe?

Rob Vitale

There is private label in Weetabix, yes, and that has been the case for years now. We are growing faster in refrigerated because essentially we made the decision of actually re-engaging with the private label business in that category, it's growing from essentially nothing, and so we see it as an ongoing opportunity.

For now, it's targeted on fewer retailers, but it's an opportunity there as well.

Carla Casella

Okay. Is the opportunity there similar to where you are in Consumer Brands?

Do you see those categories get to 20% private brand?

Nicolas Catoggio

It's difficult to say. Weetabix I think it is -- It's higher, yeah.

--

Rob Vitale

is higher than 20%.

Nicolas Catoggio

From a category standpoint, private label is much larger in the UK than the US, obviously a much smaller market, but our share is in line with the category in terms of branded versus private label.

Matt Mainer

Private label's north of 40% for us over there, but I think in line. I don't know that there's a lot of opportunities there.

We feel really good about having the alternative price points just like we do at Post Consumer Brands, and we think that gives us a competitive advantage and inroads with retailers both on the branded side and with that private label presence.

Carla Casella

Okay. Can I just ask one quick finance question?

You've done a lot with share buybacks, you've done a bunch of refinancing lately. How much cash should we model that you need to keep on the books just to run the business?

Matt Mainer

Sure. We generally think about it, call it $150 million of just cash on the balance sheet for working capital purposes and just, given our Weetabix business as well as international, that's about the right level of cash just needed for daily operations.

Carla Casella

Okay. Great, thank you so much.

Matt Mainer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's question-and-answer session as well as Post Holdings Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast.

Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.