Marcopolo SA

Marcopolo SA

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 27, 2026

Operator

Good morning everyone. Welcome to Marcopolo's conference call to discuss the results for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Today's presentation and remarks will be delivered by Mr. André Armaganijan, CEO, Pablo Motta, CFO and Investor Relations Officer, and Eduardo Willrich, Legal and Investor Relations Manager.

Please note that simultaneous interpretation is available on this call. Simply click the interpretation button at the bottom of your screen and select English.

This conference is being recorded and will be made available on the company's Investor Relations website, ri.marcopolo.com.br, along with the presentation materials shared today. All participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation.

After that, we'll begin the Q&A session, at which point further instructions will be provided. Before we proceed, we would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during this call are based on Marcopolo's management current beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to the company.

These statements involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors, analysts, and journalists should be aware that a number of factors related to the macroeconomic environment, the industry, and other relevant conditions could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

We'll now begin the presentation by turning the floor over to Mr. Pablo Motta.

Mr. Motta, please go ahead.

Pablo Motta

Good morning everyone. We would like to thank you for joining us in the conference call for the year of '25 and the fourth quarter of '25.

We are going to start with slide 4, with the highlights. In 2025, Marcopolo reached a new record of results, overcoming the target of 9 billion of consolidated net revenue, with growth of 5.4% compared to '24, supported by exports and international operations.

When we analyze individually, it was 32% in international operations. In 2025, Marcopolo's EBITDA was negatively impacted non-recurring by the results of the Canadian subsidiary New Flyer, about 733.

Adjusted by the impact, EBITDA in 2025 would reach 1 billion 669 million, a record compared to the EBITDA of '24. Gross profit, gross margin also exceeded previous results, reaching 2.31 billion and 25.6% respectively.

Net profit reached 1.24 billion, another record. We can now go on to the next slide.

In 2025, Brazilian bus body production had growth of 1.7%. The highlight was the exports that grew by 28.2% in the year.

The performance confirmed expectations of slower growth in production in '25 compared to '24. In '25, the Brazilian market was negatively affected by high interest rates, which made it more expensive to buy new trucks and stopped the pickup of recovery that we had since '25.

Compared to '24, the production shrank by 1.2%, which was not enough to stop the aging of the Brazilian fleet, which we have been witnessing for the last 13 years. Let's go on to the next slide.

On the fourth quarter '25, Marcopolo production to the Brazilian market dropped by 5.9%. Production to exports from Brazil grew approximately 31%, and our external units grew by 2.7% in production.

Compared to the same quarter in '24, the small drop in volumes is related to the reduction of deliveries in the Brazilian market, partially offset by exports. This is a trend that was seen throughout the second half of '25.

We can now go to the next slide. In the fourth quarter '25, net revenue consolidated reached 2.5 billion approximately, with the highest share in the coach bus segment, especially with deliveries in the domestic market and exports as the main highlight.

Revenue coming from domestic market, considering exports and our international operations, accounted for approximately 43% of net revenue in Marcopolo, balancing the share of sales in Brazil that accounted for approximately 57%. Now we are going to go to the next slide.

Consolidated gross profit in the fourth quarter '25 reached approximately 668 million, an amount that had a gross margin of 26%. The increase in gross profit and gross margin are associated to the better performance of foreign operations altogether, as well as the capture of efficiency and labor gains.

EBITDA was 426 million in the fourth quarter '25 with margin of 16.6% vis-à-vis 461 million in 4Q '24 and margin of 17.3%. Net profit consolidated for the fourth quarter '25 was 341.7 million, margin of 13.3%, against 318 million and margin of 12% in the fourth quarter '24.

Now I'm going to turn the call to André that is going to talk about the market projections and performance.

André Armaganijan

Thanks Pablo. Thanks.

Hello everyone. We are going to start with coach buses, which had a retraction in volume and a deterioration in domestic market in '25, with models of less added value gaining share compared to '24.

As of the second half of '26, we expect to recover deliveries associated to the reduction of financing costs. City buses reversed its negative trend of previous years, showing growth in '25.

This movement should continue in '26. Last year, Marcopolo delivered 151 electric buses, Attivi, against 8 units in '24, a clear sign of the market potential in Brazil for alternative fuel solutions.

For micro and Volare, we had deliveries of 584 units in the quarter and 2,565 units in '25 related to the Caminho da Escola program. The next tender is expected for March 3rd.

We're going to the next slide now. International operations continue to be a highlight, with excellent performance throughout 2025.

Volgren delivered another year of expansion of revenues and profitability. The backlog shows a positive future for the Australian operation also in '26.

Biosafe had a substantial change in '25, with a high increase in volumes, revenue, and earnings. We hope that local uncertainties that are reflecting in a lower volume of orders in the beginning of '26.

Additionally, we are awaiting for the recovery of the coach market in Argentina, which shows a recovery. Polomex in Mexico starts '26 with a more careful position because of commercial agreements with the US.

Even with the drop in volume, MAN continue to improve operations in '25. We maintain positive prospects also for '26.

Marcopolo China sustained positive results throughout '25, showing the successful restructuring that was carried out in '24. Next slide.

In '25, following record results highlighted by Pablo, we had a historical payout dividend with 15.7% dividend yield and payout of 24.9%. In addition, the company also had a compensation of 10% in December.

In the beginning of the year, we had collective vacations from the end of December '24 until 19th of January in two plants in Brazil, with the other plant resuming on January 12th. This follows basically the vacations of the chassis producers and also respects the negative seasonality in the beginning of the year.

For '26, we want to have a positive trend due to the lower interest rates in Brazil, which may positively impact the market in fleet renewal as of the second half. Also, we expect good results from Volgren and New Flyer.

The Argentinian market still has a very aged fleet, and the Mexican market is still in expectation with the US tariffs. Both should be monitored and could be additional opportunities for the company.

Now we are going to open for your questions.

Operator

We'll now start the Q&A session. If you want to ask a question, please click on the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen.

Our first question comes from Fernanda Urbano from XP. Miss Urbano?

Fernanda Urbano

Good morning everyone, thanks for taking my call, and congratulations on your results. I have two questions on my side.

The first is about the microbus segment. You already mentioned that you do expect an intensification in the pace of deliveries as of the second quarter, both for the city buses and microbuses.

Could you give a bit more detail on your microbuses backlog for me to know how much of this acceleration is already in your portfolio? Also thinking about the Caminho da Escola program, do you see any risk for further delays in the process, anything in terms of maybe a fiercer competition?

This is my first question, backlog for microbuses. A broader question on growth.

One of the main concerns we have is about a potential normalization of growth this year. I understand seasonality impacts volumes for the microbuses this first quarter, but that's natural of the business.

Thinking of the whole of the year, what concerns you the most? Do you think it is the worse scenario in Argentina, the interest rate dynamics in Brazil?

What is your highest concern, and what could be a risk for '26, and also an opportunity? Thank you.

André Armaganijan

Hi Fernanda, thanks for your questions. I'm going to start talking about microbuses.

In our backlog up to May, both microbuses and city buses are extended, coach buses a bit shorter. In the case of microbuses, in addition to Volare that is the product in which we have the highest share in the market and that has been kept for a while, we have the Caminho da Escola program and the end of the last issue, and also the Ministry of Health program.

We have two additional components for the first quarter of '26, that is the remainder of the former Caminho da Escola program and the vehicles that we got together with Volkswagen from the Ministry of Health. It's important to talk about the solutions that we have with lower interest rates that enable for a more competitive purchase and the new powertrains.

We see numbers are getting better year after year, and this is something that we already see for '26. There is a need for fleet renewal, lower interest rates, and new powertrains, which will help us with city buses.

The order that we see for May is very much focused on these three segments: Caminho da Escola, and then I'm going to turn to Eduardo and I'll later talk about our view of the year.

Eduardo Willrich

Hi Fernanda, thank you. In addition to the new tender of the Caminho da Escola, the news we have that it's going to be on March the 3rd, the volumes that are going to be around the 7,400 units that were published in December, and right now this is what we have.

As we thought before that we could have something of the side, but the expectation that we have for now is that there will be no delays. About growth for the year, Fernanda, we have been talking a lot about that.

We see in the beginning Argentina a bit lower for the year, but again they have huge need for fleet delivery renewals throughout the year, we do see an opportunity there. As I mentioned before, Australia is an operation that's really giving good signs for the year.

We had two very positive years for this operation, and the mix of electric vehicles also support our positive view. We talked about New Flyer, Pablo and myself, with a better outlook.

We have several actions, specifically operationally, to seek to have better operational efficiency. This is a year that is not going to have huge growth.

This is what we have been saying in our last conversations with you. We talk about seasonality in the beginning of the year, but we think that this is not going to be a year with major growth, but with great opportunities for internal efficiency and continue gaining in our operations overseas.

Fernanda Urbano

Very clear, thank you very much, and have a good day.

Operator

Our next question comes from Gabriel Rezende from Itaú. Mr.

Rezende?

Gabriel Rezende

Hi André, Pablo, Edu, good morning. I have just one follow-up on Fernanda's question about the Ministry of Health order.

Just to confirm, the total amount is 3,000 units. Our mindset was that the beginning was 700 units, but we heard that there would confirm another 800 units.

If you could confirm the number altogether for us to have a bit more visibility, I thank you for that. Second question about margins.

You did have on the release and you just said now that part of the increase in EBITDA margins in the quarter were because of expansion of margins in external operations. I would like to hear a bit more about that, and how is this going to be carried throughout '26.

Are you thinking of 18% margin as a recurring number? Do you think it could go up with the carryover of international operations for '26?

André Armaganijan

Good morning Gabriel, and thanks for your questions. Let's start with the Ministry of Health.

The potential of the 3,000 units that we have confirmed so far are 700 units and then an additional order for 800 units for now. Thank you.

Pablo Motta

Hi Gabriel, this is Pablo, talking a bit about margins. What we see is the following: the recognition of margin expansion in international operations is a fruit of the work that has been carried out and that we are having a lot of transparency in Brazil.

As of '24, we started to have the fruit of our international operations, and in '25, we started to materialize what we see in terms of performance. In practice, expansion comes from better operational improvements, better pricing of our products.

We start to have our plants better suited in terms of labor. It is a whole process that eventually is part of what we have been saying very openly about Brazil, and we are saying that we have been expanding our culture, our practices to the international operations.

Now, if you think of the context of '26, the carryover and eventual extension of margins, this has to be very connected to what André mentioned before. That is, we know that Polomex is having some difficulties because of US relations, Mexico as well, we have to balance all these factors.

With that, it's very hard for now to have a clarity that everyone is going to perform the best. We know that we are going to have an expansion throughout '26.

We want it to happen, but there are things that are not under our control and might be an obstacle.

Gabriel Rezende

Very clear, thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andreia Mazini from Citi. You may go on.

Andreia Mazini

Hello André, Pablo, Edu, thanks for the call. I have also two questions on my side.

The first is should expect a drop in margins in '26 given a mix of four city buses that is a bit higher compared to coach buses, if there's anything that can offset that? That's my first question.

The second, about the tender of Caminho da Escola on March the 3rd. That was let's say delayed more because of an understanding that's going to be a taxation on school buses, and before there was no taxation.

Is it the cause of the delay? Is it a right understanding, and what's your view on the possible taxation?

André Armaganijan

Thanks for your questions, Andreia. Let's start with margins.

Just as a reminder, seasonality: remember that the first quarter is where you have a lower volume of coach buses. You'll have this operation with less production areas, which makes this difference.

The idea is that we are going to have throughout the year a portfolio with more heavy buses, and remember that we always have to see Marcopolo in the 12 months for us to have a better clarity on productivity. I say that because this is very specific of our business, this seasonality.

Talking about margins for '26, what we see in practice, it's true, we do have some challenges. We see the coach segment, heavier buses, with some impacts especially because of high interest rates.

City buses, we have specific lines that in a way drive the segment. Microbuses, we did talk about the programs that we are working with.

The view today is that we shouldn't have a scenario that can affect our margins adversely. If the scenario is not favorable for financing of heavy buses, we might see consequences in the year and perhaps we won't deliver the same performance of the previous year.

It has a lot to do with the macroeconomic scenario and the appetite of heavy buses operators in fleet renewal vis-à-vis the financial costs that they are going to have. Always reminding everyone that for 13 years our fleet has been aging, there is a huge repressed demand, and older buses running do bring also high costs.

This is something that you should consider in your analysis. As for the Caminho da Escola program, yes, last year we had a complementary law that basically was passed in Congress and brought a scenario in which we would have taxations of PIS/COFINS that before were exempt, and that did have an impact on agreements with the Caminho da Escola because people were not expecting this taxation.

Because now there is these federal taxes, it's true as a consequence within the current legislation, we do have the taxation of ICMS in the product. It's ICMS plus PIS and COFINS that were not in any tenders this time, and whenever there is a change, there is a new price list and etc., and that's why the tender was delayed.

Just to give in context, yes, there was this change that has an impact on price. There was a new right to take prices, and now I think that next week everything is going to be ready for the tender.

Andreia Mazini

Very clear, thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Luiza Mussi from Bank Safra. Mussi Mussi?

Luiza Mussi

Hello everyone, good morning. I have two questions on my side.

First, a follow-up of what you mentioned about margins for '26 specifically with the coach buses. How should we consider this portfolio?

You're talking about heavier buses, electric, articulated buses could bring you any strengths compared to what we see in city buses? Also New Flyer, you did have the non-recurring of $32 million on the recall of batteries and the possibility of a reversal of part of this amount.

What are you considering for the results, and in general, what to expect of the company's operation for this year? Do you think you're going to have a better or more positive contribution for '26?

André Armaganijan

Hi Luiza, thanks for your questions. City buses: whenever you have a product that is higher value added, naturally you'll have an addition on average prices, and this leads to a higher added value, which reflects on higher margins.

Naturally products with higher added value would potentially increase margins in a specific segment, as you mentioned. You'll have the articulated buses, you have electric buses, and together with the aging of the fleet as a effect of that in time, we benefit in terms of volumes to be sold, because the fleet ages and it comes to a point they has to be replaced.

We did see that in the second half of '25, and we believe it will happen in '26. This growth in volumes also helps an increase in margin.

It would be a double effect: a better mix, but also a gross in volumes in the segment that could lead to better margins. What you said, the more vehicles we have with the more added value, the more and better the margin.

Talking about New Flyer, what we see in practice is that in the third quarter '25, when the company had the provision for the batteries, as a consequence of the agreement that we had with the suppliers, we have the notice to the market saying that we could have the reversal of 75% to 80% of that amount when we had the exchange of batteries and when we incurred costs. What we saw is an accounting provision, you do take into consideration the size of the problem.

We don't have access to the document that was signed with suppliers, but I believe that as they start incurring costs with the fixing of the batteries, they should have some kind of refund from suppliers. We cannot tell you that this is going to happen in the coming days, but we are following that.

Now, considering the operation per se, we have been monitoring a public data, and we have had conversations with the company's IR team, and indeed the portfolio is strengthened. They have indeed being able to get more strength in the North American market.

They did have problems in the last two years, but they have addressed most of these problems, news are positive. I think that now they have a challenge of delivery so that they can materialize the backlog that they have.

I think it has a lot more to do with execution to make the operation run as it deserves consider the relevant share that the company has in the American market.

Luiza Mussi

Very clear, thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andressa Varotto from UBS-BB.

Andressa Varotto

Hello, good morning André, Pablo, Edu, thanks for taking my question. I have two.

The first is if you could comment a bit more about the prospects of the main export markets. We saw in the last year that was an important market to offset a bit of the coach bus market in Brazil.

What are the prospects, especially for the first quarter '26? Do you see room for exports to continue to offset that?

My second question is related to the Mover program. Another quarter with a higher amount, I would like to try and understand what you expect in terms of recurring benefits from now on.

Thank you very much.

André Armaganijan

Hi André, thanks for your question. On exports, we do see a year and we are engaging our best efforts to have good results from exports.

The company historically has had a focus on exports and a relevance of revenues from abroad. This has been so for a long time, and we continue with our teams on field to seek alternatives.

We are very strong in Latin America, when you ask about markets, Latin America markets are a reference to us, several: Peru, Argentina, Mexico, but also Uruguay and Bolivia and Ecuador and Costa Rica. It's a broad presence, and in the year of '26, we expect a positive result.

We do count on exports as an alternative for sustainability of our growth as a company, and we continue looking into specific special projects in other markets outside Latin America. We have a footprint in Africa, we are always looking to our partnerships as an alternative, and the Asian market with a focus on Australia.

As a whole, without talking about specific market, we do see in our backlog, especially heavy buses, an importance of this movement that we are seeing in the external market, and we want to seek sales in the market, complementing with international operations. We mentioned the highlight continues to be Australia.

We see the beginning of as lower market in Argentina, but we know the needs, the potential for renewal, the relationship we have with our clients. Mexico, a bit affected now, but it's a market that needs renew.

Not long ago we had a generation of coach buses, we are testing the product in several clients, Mexico is not turning up. Australia is, but we are also looking into Mexico for an upside there, a recovery of Argentina for eleventh year, and exports from Brazil to all these markets, particularly Latin America.

Talking about the Mover program, André, Mover is a federal government program, a mobility program whose objective is to give tax incentives for companies as they invest in tech solutions in line with what the government is designing in terms of energy efficiency, stability. There are some requirements that are being more and more communicated and new rules are being put to the automotive industry.

Pablo Motta

When we talk about recurrence, the main thing about this program is that it has a cap, a budget cap, that this program is from '24, '28. The cap is about 4 billion a year.

Now you get all the news that have been published in the automotive industry, the magnitude of investments, you're going to see that goes beyond this cap of 4 billion. We are enabled, we request credits to the federal government, but we are not necessarily approved, because when the cap is reached, companies are no longer entitled to use the credit.

In the last quarters we had this certification, but that does not mean that we are going to be able to get credit. We request for credit, and when credit is approved, we recognize that.

That's the uncertainty behind this volume of resources so that we cannot treat them as recurrent.

Andressa Varotto

Very clear, thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Gabriel Frazão from Bank of America. You may go on.

Gabriel Frazão

Good morning everyone, thanks for taking my question. I have one question about the competitive environment and the pass-through of prices.

If we could hear how competitors are reacting to a lower demand in coach and city buses in the beginning of the year. Are they reducing production rates?

Is there anyone more focused on gaining market share? Also could you talk about any changes in the price dynamics in the sector, or if you're still being able to pass through inflation for new orders?

André Armaganijan

Hi Gabriel, thanks for your question. Since '25, we have been having small reductions in our plant labor structure.

In '25, you see that month after month, even because of the natural turnover, we are seeing some reduction, especially because we think '26 is going to be flatter. The adjustment of our supply, considering a less heated demand in the beginning of the year, has this purpose of keeping a very good supply-demand relationship with prices aligned with what we built in recent years.

Passing through prices, we are still looking into inflation and passing prices on to the market. We see inflation of materials, we are always passing on gradually.

We are not making super relevant adjustments because we do not see increases as relevant. We are working efficiency to try and avoid a huge impact to our clients.

I think what's important is the view of the year, because it's a consolidated view of the industry. The transportation sector competitors are talking about a flat industry as an important point, and I think it's very important for us to keep this alignment between supply and what the market needs.

The history of companies in the sector shows that many years made huge investments and the market did not come as fast, and when this happens, we start a price war, which led to a not positive financial situation to many bus companies. We are looking carefully into maintaining prices, looking into costs, inflation rates.

We are being very cautious to think about what the size of the industry is going to be ahead. We don't think it's going to be a much higher industry in '26, and we have to consider market share.

Marcopolo works to keep its market share, and we have to be extremely cautious because we do not want to lose market share. This is a balance that you have to have: passing on costs vis-à-vis inflation, paying attention to the kind of supply we have, but keeping market share.

This is what we have been doing, focusing on the company with new solutions, new technologies, new products. I think this is Marcopolo's strength, generating cash.

You always ask about cash utilization, and the idea is to continue to position ourselves as a leading company: leader in prices, in market share, and being specifically cautious with a not growing market, which we cannot make the mistakes in the past in terms of availability and capacity if we don't have a demand that matches that.

Gabriel Frazão

Very clear, thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Samuel Alves from BTG.

Samuel Alves

Hello everyone, good morning. I have one question about capital structure.

Even after the dividend payout, you continue very deleveraged, I would like to understand the optimal level in terms of capital structure and what would you do to get there. Would be, I don't know, the payout of dividends, higher capex, what are you considering?

André Armaganijan

Thanks for your question, Samuel. I think that basically more and more we are working very hard for profitability to be not only accounting profitability, but rather seeing in cash generation for the business.

I think in this context, the results is to have better financial health, an optimal level of liquidity. Internally, we have been keeping discussions in terms of structure.

Again, I'm being repetitive, I want to keep the 50% dividend payout policy, developing new products, and always thinking about the markets in which we operate that have repressed demands, and we know the size of demand of working capital that we may have if these operations start to run simultaneously. Today we cannot tell you what the optimal level it is.

What we see in terms of generation and keeping the current level is to make the operation more and more sustainable and more and more prepared to face all the situations that may come up and try to meet any future needs. As we have been working in recent years, we are going to continue to do the same, keeping a position similar to what we are delivering now.

If eventually we have an operation with net cash, we are going to be working very well under those conditions.

Samuel Alves

Very clear, thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Marcelo Motta from J.P. Morgan.

Mr. Motta?

Marcelo Motta

Hello, good morning. I have two quick questions.

The first, if you could talk a bit capex priorities for 2026. In '25, it was slightly lower than '24, to try and understand your priorities for '26.

Imports, if you could talk a bit about Europe. You had launched G8 in Italy, you're looking into Portugal and Spain.

I suppose it's nothing super relevant for the year, but just to try and understand commercially how are talks advancing and sales advancing in Europe. Thank you.

André Armaganijan

Thanks for your question, Marcelo. First, about capex, we are planning our investments in the amount of 350 million.

Last year, we materialized 220 machines, equipments that were acquired that are basically being installed throughout '26, but I see that in '26 we should go back to this level. We have a series of products and improvements.

We want to more and more qualify our plant environment to seek higher efficiency and, more than that, improve more and more the quality and the delivery of our products. In our capex forecasted for the year, what is designed is 350 million.

It can be a bit more, a bit low, depends on time of materialization. Marcelo, thanks for your question about Europe.

Just to answer you, we are moving on with the certification of products. We have vehicles already being developed.

We started with Italy and France, they were our initial markets. As you rightly said so, we are looking into Portugal and Spain as alternative.

These are markets that do buy solutions of bus bodies and chassis. The idea is to start with these four markets, but just as a reminder, at first we did talk about that, produce buses in Brazil.

What we want now is to establish a strong relationship with clients, a clear understanding of product specs, relationship, have a very good after-sales structure, and we can do that through partnerships. We started with Volvo, but we are open to other alternatives.

Create a strength of services with the right certified, tested product operating well in these units. We have a group of people that have been going to Europe quite frequently to try and build this path.

Phase two will depend on the evolution of phase one to try and define next steps in terms of presence in Europe. We haven't been talking now about major investments in the European continent.

I think that was a good lesson learned in Marcopolo. Any eventual expansion plant-wise has to be very well thought of, but we can work with different models and be competitive in the European market.

That's the original design: focus on products, certifications, compliance with new rules, good partnerships, after-sales, customer relationships. I think it's very interesting.

It's one of the few markets of Marcopolo as a global company to seek, and this is an important time where chassis partners do want a bus body solution, which Marcopolo can offer to the market. I think it's an interesting time for the company to expand at a time the international market and local competitors are into full in capacity and deliveries for '25.

We want to start delivering products in the beginning of next year already.

Marcelo Motta

Very good, thank you very much.

Operator

The Q&A session is now closed. We would like to turn the call for Mr.

Motta for the company's final remarks.

Pablo Motta

I would like to thank you all once again for joining us in this conference call. This is the end of our conference call, and I wish we all have an excellent year ahead of us.

Thank you very much.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for joining us and wish you a good day.