Almirall SA

Almirall SA

10.68
EUR
-0.10
(-0.93%)
0.33EPS
34.08P/E
2.45BMarket Cap
Feb 22Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 9, 2026

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Almirall nine-month 2026 financial results and business update.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you will need to press *11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

If you joined using device audio, click the Raise Hand button on your screen. To withdraw your question, please press *11 again or click the Lower Hand button.

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Pablo Divasson, Head of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Pablo Divasson

Thank you very much, Sandra. Good morning, everyone.

Thank you for joining us for today's quarterly earnings update and review of Almirall's nine-month financial results for 2026. As always, the slides we are using today are available in the investor section of our website at almirall.com.

Please move to slide number two. Let me remind you that the information presented in this call contains forward-looking statements, which involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to materially differ from what we are sharing today.

Please move to slide three. Presenting today are Carlos Gallardo, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jon Garay, Chief Financial Officer; and Karl Ziegelbauer, Chief Scientific Officer.

Carlos will start with the business highlights for the first nine months of 2026, followed by an update on biologics and the key growth drivers of our medical dermatology portfolio. Karl will then provide an update on the pipeline and R&D programs.

Joan will walk you through the financial review before Carlos concludes the presentation and we open the call for questions. I will now hand over to Carlos Gallardo, our Chairman and CEO.

Please move to slide number five.

Carlos Gallardo

Thank you, Pablo, and good morning, everyone. Almirall's performance has built progressively since the start of 2026, delivering a steady nine-month results in line with the trajectory set out at the beginning of the year.

Net sales for the nine months reached €889 million, representing growth of 8.3% year on year, with European dermatology continuing to act as the primary growth engine. This momentum is expected to continue into the fourth quarter.

On the guidance for the year, Joan will provide some color in a short while. Turning to products, Ilumetri is still delivering a healthy and continued double-digit growth.

Ebglyss growth keeps supporting our long-term view of the product, with continued ramp-up across key European markets. Wynzora and Klisyri are delivering growth in the mid- to high teens, as expected.

We remain closely connected to the dermatology community, strengthening our partnerships with physicians through our ongoing participation at key scientific platforms. A key highlight of this engagement was the 2026 EADV Congress, where results for the AD-long and AD-touch studies were presented as late-breaking data, adding to the growing evidence base supporting Ebglyss.

Turning to our pipeline, we are very proud of our medical dermatology pipeline, comprising of three mid-stage assets across six development programs in five indications, as well as a few earlier-stage assets. We think it is one of the strongest in our history and very meaningful for a company of Almirall's size.

We are particularly pleased with both the range of indications that it covers, as well as for the commercial potential these assets collectively represent. Some of these products have the potential to become the next relevant patient option for indications such as hidradenitis suppurativa or alopecia areata.

In the coming months, we expect the first readout of the pipeline: the IL-2 for atopic dermatitis, and the rest will continue during 2027 and early 2028. Please move to the next slide for an update on our biologics portfolio.

Third-quarter sales of Ilumetri, our biologic for psoriasis, represents the best quarter since the launch of the product, with over €65 million in sales, maintaining the product's steady double-digit growth trajectory. Net sales reached €191 million in Europe in the first nine months of 2026.

Ilumetri continues to hold a solid position in the psoriasis market with the leading anti-IL-23 class. Its profile is supported by real-world evidence, including the two-year POSITIVE study data presented at the 2026 EADV October meeting, highlighting sustainable disease control and meaningful long-term patient benefits.

We also see further opportunities to strengthen the evidence base. The EVOLVE study in psoriasis will assess the 200 mg dose in biologic-naive patients diagnosed for less than two years.

Performance remains consistent with our long-term expectations, and we continue to be firmly on track to deliver more than €300 million in peak net sales. Please move to the next slide for the Ebglyss highlights.

Ebglyss continued to scale across Europe and generated more than €132 million in net sales in the first nine months of 2026. The results reflect continued healthy growth across the European franchise, and our mid- and long-term view remains unchanged.

We expect the strong clinical profile of lebrikizumab and continued expansion of the atopic dermatitis market to support sustained growth. On the clinical side, Almirall, together with Lilly, continued to strengthen Ebglyss' positioning.

At the 2026 EADV Congress in October, successful five-year AD-long results and AD-touch data were presented as the late-breakers, adding further evidence on the product's clinical profile and long-term value. As we mentioned in prior earnings calls, the ADORABLE 1 pediatric data and the pediatric submission was accepted by the EMA.

The every eight-week maintenance regimen has been approved in the United States, while the AD-hope 2 study in Europe can potentially support an extension of the dosing interval to every 12 weeks. I will now hand over to Karl to walk you through our pipeline developments in more detail.

Karl Ziegelbauer

Thank you, Carlos, and good morning, everyone on the call. Our early- and mid-stage pipeline offers multiple opportunities for future value creation.

Four proof-of-concept or Phase 2 studies are ongoing, and two additional studies are planned to start towards year end. The Phase 2 study for our anti-IL-1RAP antibody in hidradenitis suppurativa is ongoing.

Likewise, the Phase 2 for IL-2 mutant Fc in alopecia areata. Our partner, Simcere, is also running a Phase 2 study of IL-2 mutant Fc in atopic dermatitis.

In addition, a proof-of-concept study of our anti-IL-21 antibody in hidradenitis suppurativa is running currently. Next, we plan to advance IL-2 mutant Fc into SLE with cutaneous manifestation and our anti-IL-1RAP antibody into pyoderma gangrenosum, a rare, painful, neutrophilic disease with high unmet need, with a potential role for IL-1 pathway dysregulation.

Together, these programs provide six proof-of-concept or Phase 2 studies, with readouts expected to begin this quarter and continue over the next years. While still early, they are grounded in defined biology and offer a diversified set of potential first- or best-in-class opportunity.

Next slide, please. Alongside clinical execution, we are building the next wave of innovation in medical dermatology.

We focus our internal capability on therapeutic hypothesis generation while partnering selectively for differentiated technologies and modality to explore those. Our new collaboration with Crystec is a good example for this strategy and shows that we make progress with our activities in China.

It combines Crystec's mSAS small-molecule discovery expertise with Almirall's development and commercial capability to pursue novel therapies in medical dermatology. This collaboration gives us access to novel technology while enabling Almirall to lead future global development and commercialization outside China.

This strengthens our early pipeline and creates additional portfolio opportunity within our core dermatology focus. Next slide, please.

We continue to invest selectively behind our marketed products through label expansion and additional clinical evidence. For Tirbanibulin, the European regulatory process for the larger 100 cm² treatment is ongoing, with approval expected in the coming weeks.

With Eli Lilly, we continue to pursue label expansion and generate additional evidence for Ebglyss. We have filed with EMA to extend the lebrikizumab label to children aged 6 months to 17 years who weigh below 40 kg and have moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.

Approval is expected in the second half of 2027. We are also conducting a Phase 3 study of lebrikizumab in nummular eczema, with a readout expected in 2029.

Let me now highlight recent clinical results. Next slide.

At the EADV 2026, Almirall presented late-breaking data from the Almirall-sponsored AD-long study, evaluating durability of response and long-term disease control with continuous lebrikizumab treatment in moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. AD-long is a two-year extension of parent studies already running for three years, allowing to explore long-term disease control for up to five years.

Clinical benefit was sustained through week 108. At that time point, 93% of patients achieved EASI 75, and 67% achieved clear or almost clear skin based on IGA 0 or 1.

In addition, 78% achieved a pruritus NRS score of 4 or below. The safety profile remained consistent with previous studies, with no new safety signal.

These results reinforced the potential of lebrikizumab as a long-term treatment option for sustained disease control, with now patients being well controlled for up to five years. Next slide, please.

Lebrikizumab not only provides long-term control of atopic dermatitis, but also provides effective control in difficult-to-treat or high-impact areas. One such area is hand and foot, and our partner, Eli Lilly, presented at EADV 2026 positive results from the AD-touch study.

AD-touch is a Phase 3 study of lebrikizumab in moderate-to-severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis. AD-touch met its primary endpoint: 53% of lebrikizumab-treated patients achieved clear or almost clear skin on the hands and feet at week 16, compared with 17% on placebo.

Benefits were observed early, with significant skin clearance improvements from week 4 and itch reduction from week 2. Patients also reported improvements in hand and foot pain.

To broaden the clinical evidence base for these difficult-to-treat areas, Almirall will start a dedicated Phase 3b study to explore the efficacy and safety of lebrikizumab in adult and adolescent participants with moderate-to-severe face and neck atopic dermatitis. In summary, those recently presented clinical data support the best-in-disease profile of lebrikizumab.

With that, I'll hand over to Joan for the financial review.

Jon Garay

Thank you, Karl, for pipeline update, and good morning, everyone. Net sales for the first nine months of 2026 reached €889 million, representing an 8.3% year-on-year growth.

Third-quarter net sales were €286.5 million, an increase of 10.1% compared to same period prior year. European dermatology keeps delivering solid double-digit growth, 17.6% year to date, reinforcing Almirall's path towards leadership in medical dermatology.

EBITDA for the first nine months reached €222 million, corresponding to a margin of around 25% of net sales, two years ahead of our 2028 ambition. It reflects continued operating leverage and keeps us on track to deliver within our full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance range.

Gross margin was around 65% for the nine-month period. This includes the benefit from Acticlate divestment and some positive sales mix effects, partially offset by minor effect of higher royalty tiers.

R&D investment was €107 million for the first nine months, representing 12% of net sales. Disciplined SG&A approach allowed net sales to continue growing faster than our expense base.

We closed the third quarter with a net cash to EBITDA ratio of around 0.2, with a strong cash generation in Q3, leaving us with significant financial flexibility. At this point, we reiterate our full-year 2026 guidance, with net sales growth in the range of 9% to 12% and EBITDA range of €270 million to €290 million.

Based on our performance year to date and regarding the net sales line, we expect to finalize the full year towards the mid to low end of the range of our guidance. On the other hand, EBITDA points towards the upper range of the guidance, as we are benefiting from both the operating leverage and a disciplined management of our SG&A.

Next slide, please. The third quarter continued the positive sales trend in medical dermatology.

European dermatology remained the primary growth engine, supported by Ilumetri and Ebglyss. The non-derma legacy portfolio declined slightly, as some markets experienced certain competition in a mature environment.

The lower sales in certain products as Ebastel or Crestor were partially compensated by positive contributions from products such as Airtal or Almars. In the United States, performance declined year on year, reflecting continued pressure on the legacy portfolio.

In the rest of the world, overall sales grew strongly, driven by solid dermatology demand. Let me take you through now dermatology performance in more detail on the next slide.

Our European dermatology business continued to deliver strong growth through the first nine months. Ilumetri reached €191 million, delivering a robust 11.5% year-on-year growth.

In fact, Ilumetri delivered its best-ever quarter, with €65 million sales and growth of circa 14% versus prior-year quarter. Ebglyss reached €132 million, growing 75% versus prior year.

Together, these two biologics remained the principal drivers of the portfolio. Wynzora continued to build market share across core European countries, with €29 million sales in the nine-month period, growing by 15%, while Klisyri reached €18 million, with growth of around 22%.

In the United States, overall performance declined, including a more competitive environment for Seysara, with Klisyri accelerating its performance after access expansion agreement with Caremark earlier this year. Dollar-euro FX evolution represented a negative impact of 6 percentage points in our performance year to date.

In the rest of the world, dermatology sales were primarily supported by purchase patterns of our partners and solid demand for Finjuve in Asia. Overall, our dermatology franchise continues to show solid underlying performance.

Next slide, please. Let's briefly review the remaining elements of the P&L.

For the first nine months, gross profit was €576 million, representing a 65% over net sales. The margin reflects a positive contribution from Acticlate divestment, favorable sales mix, and good management of our manufacturing costs, partially offset by Ilumetri royalties.

R&D was €107 million, as 12% of net sales. The quarterly evolution reflects the progress in our early development and life-cycle management programs.

While still below our 12.5% ambition for the year, we expect higher level of expending next quarter. SG&A, excluding depreciation and amortization, was €366 million for the first nine months.

The disciplined approach toward expenses supported continued operating leverage, with net sales growing faster than SG&A, as guidanced in February. EBITDA reached €222 million, representing a margin of 25% over net sales, two years ahead of our 2028 ambition.

Financial expenses include revaluation impact of the equity swap linked to the share price and the usual financing costs of the business. Please move to next slide.

Our balance sheet remained stable through the first nine months of the year. Intangible assets reflect capitalized Ebglyss R&D, development milestone to Simcere for advancing the IL-2 mutant fusion protein into Phase 2, Hualan collaboration access fee, recent Crystec agreement, as well as other minor collaborations, which were all outweighed by higher amortization.

Our net cash to EBITDA ratio stood at around 0.2, continuing to provide us with strong financial flexibility to pursue licensing opportunities and selective bolt-on acquisitions. Finally, as a testimony toward prudent leverage and cash management, Moody's upgraded our credit rating to Ba1 from Ba2 in June.

Let's now turn to the cash flow statement. We generated €61 million cash in the first nine months of 2026, compared to a reduction of -€1 million in the same period last year, driven by operational leverage in our P&L, disciplined working capital management, and higher share dividend.

Free cash flow reached €83 million, compared to €42 million in the prior period. Cash flow from operating activities reached €203 million, representing a 39% improvement versus same period last year, driven by working capital management and higher profitability.

Cash flow from investing activities primarily reflects the 2025 Ilumetri sales milestone paid in the first quarter of 2026, largest milestone payment expected this year. Remaining investment-related payments have been limited year to date and are expected to remain modest, keeping total cash outflows within normal limits, excluding any potential new acquisition.

Cash used in financing activities was lower year on year, mainly due to lower cash dividend payments, with more shareholders opting to receive shares. Overall, these results demonstrate the increase in financial strength of Almirall.

We are delivering solid top-line growth while translating that growth into significantly stronger profitability and cash generation. Our operating leverage is becoming increasingly visible, with EBITDA growing well ahead of our sales and our margin already reaching 25%, while maintaining disciplined investment behind our future growth.

At the same time, our strong balance sheet gives us flexibility to continue investing in our pipeline and pursue value-creating opportunities. With that, I would like to hand it over to Carlos for his closing remarks.

Carlos Gallardo

Thank you, Joan. To summarize, the first nine months of 2026 remains firmly on track.

The progressive performance is in line with our expectations, and we remain confident in the 2026 outlook and in our ability to deliver our targets. Turning to the key growth drivers, our biologics portfolio continues to provide strong momentum in an expanding dermatology market.

Ebglyss continues to scale across Europe and remains a central driver of our growth, while Ilumetri continues to deliver steady double-digit growth as it moves through a more mature phase of its growth cycle. Both assets have loss-of-exclusivity dates beyond 2033.

Moreover, we continue to generate life-cycle management and real-world data that further strengthen the clinical profile and long-term value of both products. In parallel, our growing pipeline now spans immune-mediated skin diseases, rare dermatology, and non-melanoma skin cancer, with six proof-of-concepts or Phase 2 programs moving forward.

Most of these assets have first-in-class or potentially best-in-class profiles, and some target large markets. In the coming months, we expect the first readout of the pipeline, the IL-2 for atopic dermatitis, and the rest will continue during 2027 and early 2028.

Assuming successful progress, this could provide us with a diversified base of opportunities for sustainable growth well into the next decade. Finally, we remain disciplined but active on capital deployment.

Our strong financial position supports selective bolt-on M&A and early-stage licensing opportunities that fit our medical dermatology strategy. Together, our well-positioned portfolio, the depth of our targeted pipeline, our financial discipline, and our continued execution give us confidence as we advance Almirall's leadership in medical dermatology.

Back to you, Pablo.

Pablo Divasson

Thank you, Carlos. Sandra, back to you for the Q&A, please.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press *11 on your telephone, or if you have joined via device audio, click the Raise Hand button and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, please press *11 again or click the Lower Hand button. We will now take our first question from the line of Kirsty Ross-Stewart from BNP Paribas.

Please go ahead.

Kirsty Ross-Stewart

Hi there. Good morning.

Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple on Ebglyss, if that's all right.

Just on full-year expectations, can you let us know your level of comfort with the current expectations for around €190 million, €195 million? If comfortable, kind of where you see the source of further acceleration in Q4 coming from?

Then just looking forward into 2027, I was wondering if you could provide any more details on the potential impact of the German rebate reform coming in in January. Have you been able to get any clarity on your eligibility for exemptions?

If not, are you able to give us a kind of approximate range of the potential impact on top-line growth in 2027? Thanks very much.

Carlos Gallardo

Thanks, Kirsty. We remain very optimistic about the mid- and long-term opportunity for Ebglyss.

The robustness of the profile that keeps being enriched with a new data that we're generating, and we saw recently at the EADV the AD-long data, the AD-touch, and we're also generating additional data. This is translating into dynamic market share growth within a market that continues to grow very healthily.

We are very confident about the mid- and long-term outlook of Ebglyss, and we are happy to reiterate our peak sales estimate of more than €450 million. In terms of your second question about 2027 details, it's too early to provide guidance for 2027, and we will provide more guidance on the February call.

In terms of your comments about the healthcare reform that was passed in Germany in July, as you mentioned, there are a number of ongoing discussions to negotiate deductions and exclusions from this rebate. There's still a lot of uncertainty about how this will land.

We are monitoring the reform closely, as you can imagine. We think that we qualify for a number of these deductions, but as of today, it's very difficult to see which is going to be the impact of this on Almirall.

Some of the market estimates estimate an impact reform in the range of between 1% and 2.5% of our revenue in 2027 and going forward. As of today, probably this is the best estimate range.

Kirsty Ross-Stewart

Sorry, can I just clarify on my first question, just on the 2026 expectations for Ebglyss? I think you mentioned €190 million at Q2.

Just wondering if you can comment on that.

Carlos Gallardo

We are very confident at the peak sales estimate that we provided, and that's why we're reiterating today.

Kirsty Ross-Stewart

Understood. Thank you.

Carlos Gallardo

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Shan Hama from Jefferies.

Please go ahead.

Shan Hama

Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions.

Just two from me. Given that you've consistently been around 25% EBITDA margin now, which is in line with your 2028 goal, how should we think about this going forward?

Assuming there'll be some quarter-on-quarter volatility, but what can we expect for 2027 and '28 with the balance of sales growth and then also opex increase potentially? Then my second question is, it would be great to hear about the rationale for IL-1RAP in PG.

What drives conviction in this indication? Then how does that compare with the potential opportunity in HS?

Thank you.

Carlos Gallardo

Thank you, Shan, for the question. We are delighted that we have reached this 25% EBITDA range ahead of what we initially thought a number of years ago, thanks to the operational leverage that we have been able to demonstrate.

Going forward, again, very cautious about saying anything about 2027, and we will provide more color in the future. As you can imagine, this will largely depend on the POC results and the investment decisions that we decide to make on these assets going forward, always focusing on long-term value maximization.

On your comment on the IL-1RAP in PG, that's one more POC that we have started. We're very excited, and I will let Karl comment on the rationale.

Karl Ziegelbauer

Yes. Thank you, Shan, for the question.

PG is a neutrophilic skin disease characterized by painful necrotic ulceration, where there is still a very high unmet medical need, as there are no approved targeted therapy. It's more a kind of a rare disease, with a prevalence of 1 in 7,000 adults.

There is evidence that the IL-1, but also the IL-36 is involved in the pathophysiology. With our proof-of-concept study, we want to further explore this hypothesis of inhibition of the IL-1, the IL-36, but also the IL-33, this combination that we target with our anti-IL-1RAP antibody, whether this provides benefit in this high unmet medical need indication.

With respect to your question about the opportunity versus HS, hidradenitis suppurativa, this is too early to comment, as we're just starting to generate some initial data, and we will update you as we go along.

Shan Hama

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Guilherme Sampaio from CaixaBank.

Please go ahead. Guilherme Sampaio, CaixaBank, please go ahead.

Guilherme Sampaio

Hello, thank you for taking my questions. I'm sorry to insist on Ebglyss.

Your mid-term comments were as reassuring as before, but over the short term, you used to be a bit more reassuring than you were today. Is there anything that we should bear in mind regarding shorter-term Ebglyss performance that should lead us to think that it could deviate from the performance this quarter, specifically on Q4?

Second, regarding M&A, you've been actively talking about this topic. Is there anything on the radar at the moment?

Thank you.

Carlos Gallardo

Thanks, Guilherme, for the question. I like your insistence on the topic.

I said what I said before. Maybe add that at the beginning of the year, we were expecting progressive performance on the growth portfolio.

That's what we're seeing. We're confident on the outlook that we have provided.

M&A, licensing, business development in general remains a fundamental part of our strategy, and when we have something to announce, we will share it with the market.

Karl Ziegelbauer

Maybe I can add, you have seen that we're very active in the early stage, yeah, with the collaborations, for example, on Crystec, Sirtris, or also Huahai, yeah, and this is based on our strategy that we focus our in-house activity of novel therapeutic hypotheses for skin diseases where there is still a high unmet medical need and where is a clear mechanistic rationale how to address this, yeah. Then once we have established that, we look for the best partner, and who has then the modality and the technology to address this therapeutic hypothesis in the best possible way.

Those are then different companies, both in Europe, but also, as you have seen, we're making quite a lot of progress with our activities in China, which is for us a good opportunity to explore those novel scientific hypotheses in a cost-effective, quick way, with some of these collaborations are not only covering the research days, but the partner will bring the molecules up to proof of concept for us then having the optionality, based on those results, to develop this globally.

Guilherme Sampaio

Karl. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Jaime Escribano from Banco Santander.

Please go ahead.

Jaime Escribano

Hi, good morning. A few questions from my side.

In terms of top-line review, Ilumetri, you said a best quarter in history. If you can elaborate a little bit more what behind this very good performance.

Also in rest of the world, which was very high, how sustainable is this, and how should we think about this line going forward? On the other hand, Almirall legacy, all what is not derma was down -4.6% in nine months.

If you can provide us some color. I see Ebastel a little bit weak, but, again, how a little bit of outlook for going forward.

This in terms of sales. Then I was positively surprised on the gross margin.

Joan, you provided some hints, but again, what would be the outlook going forward? Then on free cash flow, which you almost doubled the free cash flow versus last year, maybe you can elaborate on some of the dynamics in terms of capex, working capital, and if this is going to keep being so strong.

Thank you very much.

Carlos Gallardo

Thank you, Jaime, for the question. I will provide some color on the first two, and then Joan can add more comments, maybe on the rest of the world as well and on the legacy, gross margin, free cash flow, right?

Let me start with Ilumetri. Yes, very pleased with the growth of Ilumetri.

Why is that? We keep generating real-world data that supports the great efficacy of this product and the dosing schedule that is extremely welcomed by patients and physicians.

Slowly but surely, we keep establishing this product as the ideal product for first-line maintenance and first-line treatment of moderate to severe patients. As you remember, also we launched the 200 mg presentation a couple of years ago, and this has continued to add to the robustness of the profile of Ilumetri, providing dose flexibility, which is, again, highly welcomed by physicians.

I would say it's not one single factor; it's a combination of factors that together, whilst that the market continues to grow nicely, this is what is helping to propel the growth of Ilumetri, and we expect that this will continue in the coming months. Yes, the rest of the world also is growing nicely.

We established last year a number of new partnerships with some of the products, and these are starting to kick in into the performance of rest of the world. Perhaps, Joan, you can add more color here and on the other questions.

Jon Garay

Thanks a lot, Carlos. Yes, following Carlos' comment on the rest of the world, basically geographical expansion is part of our objectives, Jaime, in the next months.

In this case, what we see is the positive impact by the launch of Finjuve recently in one of the jurisdictions in Asia. We are tracking it closely.

It is too early still for us to tell you how this can grow in the upcoming quarters. We are monitoring it closely.

You can see that rest of the world is already 5% of our company sales, and they are growing at a very healthy more than double-digit rate. Okay?

Now we go to your next topic, which was the legacy portfolio performance. Yes, we are observing this year perhaps a bit more competitive environment and a bit more challenge than the one we were expecting at the beginning of the year.

Not totally unexpected because bear in mind most of these products have been in the market for many years, and so it's normal to see some ups and downs as the one we are seeing this. We are monitoring it closely, and perhaps we will see more stabilization next year.

Also, there is a component of phasing in the purchase patterns of our partners, and we expect to see some moderation in the upcoming months, Jaime. Regarding your question on gross margin, yes, we have delivered a solid gross margin in Q3 in the range of 65%.

The same disciplined approach we are implementing to our SG&A, we are also implementing it to our manufacturing costs, and we were a bit surprised about this positive income. It cannot be considered as a good proxy for the upcoming quarters.

I think in the upcoming quarters, perhaps something close to 64% in terms of product margin can it be a better proxy than 65%. Overall, we remain confident on the disciplined approach to all the P&L lines we are implementing, and very happy with the performance the teams are delivering.

I think your last question was about the cash flow. Indeed, our free cash flow has multiplied by two in the first nine months of this year, when we have been delivering €83 million compared to €42 million last year.

Basically, there are, I would say, three main components driving this. Two are purely operational.

One is the increased profitability level you see in our P&L, that is a direct consequence of the operational leverage we promised to deliver, and that it is taking place and it's becoming increasingly visible in our P&L. The second fold is working capital management.

In the financial statements we have made visible this morning, you can see a swing of -€16 million to +€22 million in terms of capital management, very driven by disciplined inventory management without compromising anything at the business, but we are putting a big focus on the inventory levels we have and also management of our accounts payables and accounts receivables. Very happy for the performance the company is doing on that area.

Of course, if you expect this to continue being repetitive in the upcoming years, we need to be modest. Working capital, you come to a certain level, and then you try to maintain it.

It's not equally repetitive in upcoming years. Far, very happy, and a great recognition for the job the team is doing in Almirall.

Have we replied your questions, Jaime? There were many of them.

Jaime Escribano

Thank you.

Jon Garay

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Pablo de la Renteria from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Please go ahead.

Pablo de Renteria

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Most of them have been already answered, but just a quick follow-up on Germany, please.

You mention a potential 1% to 2.5% impact on group sales in your base case. Given that this is essentially a price-driven impact, should we assume that most of it will flow through to EBITDA, or are there any mitigating factors we could consider when assessing the margin impact?

Thank you.

Carlos Gallardo

Pablo, thank you for the question. Joan will take the answer.

As I mentioned before, also take into account that there's still a lot of uncertainty about the impact of these reforms, and of course, we are monitoring it very closely, and we will provide an update once the negotiations conclude, hopefully in the next few weeks. Joan, do you want to comment on Pablo's question?

Jon Garay

Yes, thank you very much, Carlos, and thanks, Pablo, for your question. At the moment, it is a bit too early to discuss the potential impact and to discuss the potential alternative measures we will be able to implement, because the negotiations and the discussions, they are still ongoing.

In any case, Pablo, what I would like to remark is that, hopefully, everybody is able to see that we are being quite proactive with a disciplined management of our expenses and also in the P&L lines, and you can already see the acceleration of the operational leverage, and hence the guidance we have provided this morning that EBITDA will be finalizing in the upper range of around €290 million that we have provided. We will monitor it more closely, and when we have a clear view, we will be able to provide you more transparency.

Thank you.

Pablo de Renteria

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no more questions at this time.

I would like to hand back over to Pablo Divasson for closing remarks. Apologies, there is one more question.

We will now take the next question from the line of... One moment, please.

My bad. There are no more questions.

I would like to hand back over to Pablo Divasson for closing remarks.

Pablo Divasson

Thank you very much, Sandra. If there are no further questions, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our today's conference call.

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.