AXIA Energia SA

AXIA Energia SA

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 6, 2026

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Axia Energia's conference for the discussion of the earnings of the second quarter of 2026.

Present here today are: Mr. Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President of Axia Energia; Mr.

Élio Wolff, Executive Vice President; Mr. Eduardo Haiama, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Ms.

Camila Araújo, Vice President of Governance and Sustainability; Mr. Ítalo Freitas, Vice President of Commercialization and Energy Solutions; Mr.

Juliano Dantas, Vice President of Technology and Innovation; Mr. Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas, Vice President of Legal Affairs; Mr.

Renato Carreira, Vice President of Learning, People and Services; Mr. Robson Pinheiro de Campos, Vice President of Engineering and Projects; Mr.

Rodrigo Limp, Vice President of Regulation, Institutional and Markets. We would like to inform that this event is being recorded and will be made available on the company's investor relations website, along with the presentation being shared today, both in Portuguese and English.

To view the presentation in your preferred language, select the corresponding tab located in the upper left corner of the screen: Portuguese screen for Portuguese, or English screen for English. For those who require simultaneous translation, the tool is available via the globe icon labeled Interpretation located at the bottom center of your screen.

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For the Q&A session, if you would like to ask a question, please use the Q&A icon at the bottom of the screen, providing your name, company, and question. As a standard, your name will be announced for you to ask your question live.

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Before we proceed, we would like to clarify that any statements made during this conference call regarding the company's business outlooks, projections, operational and financial goals constitute the beliefs and assumptions of Axia Energia's executive management, as well as information currently available to the company. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance, as they involve risks and uncertainties, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur.

Investors should understand that general economic conditions and other operational factors may affect the results expressed in such forward-looking statements. We now invite Mr.

Ivan Monteiro, President of Axia Energia, to begin the presentation. Please proceed, Mr.

Ivan.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

The first and second quarters, in the first half of the year, marked by the strong expansion of our investments, highlighting the modernization of our equipment, focusing on the increase of operational resilience, as well as the acceleration of disbursements in the transmission segment. Coming from the successful participation of Axia Energia in the auctions carried out thus far, we also captured a better margin in energy trading, with positive effects in the management of our stake, with the conclusion of relevant operations in the second quarter of this year, maintaining the reduction trajectory in the volume of our contingencies, exemplified with the reduction in the inventory of provisions for the compulsory loans.

Finally, the payment of our shareholders, we announced year-to-date 7.7 billion BRL to redeem Class C preferred shares. I turn the floor to our VP, Eduardo Haiama, who will continue with the presentation.

Eduardo Haiama

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Ivan.

Moving to slide 5, talking about the highlights of the quarter's earnings, our EBITDA reached 6.7 billion, up 21.5%, basically due to the greater contribution of the generation segment, transmission's been stable, and costs being well under control in the quarter. As for the investments, an increase of 50% year-over-year, from close to now 3 billion this quarter.

As I had mentioned, generation was the main contributor for this higher earnings of the quarter, reaching a unit generation margin, when we look at the free market and ACL plus MCP, of 96 this quarter, compared to 73 BRLs in the previous, in the same quarter the previous year. We were the winners in the last transmission auction, with a projected ANEEL CAPEX of 668 million and RAP of 50 million.

In this quarter, we also completed the migration to B3's Novo Mercado, the segment of the highest governance level at B3. As always, we're committed to every quarter review our capital allocation methodology, and with the board, we approved an additional allocation of 3.7 billion BRL in the first half of the year, totaling 7.7 billion BRL when we consider the 4 billion already approved in the first quarter.

In addition, this morning, we published a material fact with a new redemption. The first redemption of P&C shares was a test, this is also a test in its own way, and in the first redemption, we had an operation of 30 million that was successful, now we reduced the period of redemption that was up to 16 business days before, from the announcement to the payment, reducing it by three business days.

We are now doing a new 2 billion BRL redemption. Finally, we've concluded the divestment of a series of minority stakes and the acquisition of control of HPP Três Irmãos.

On slide 6, now it's just to mention again the increase in regulatory, adjusted regulatory EBITDA as a result of the better contribution margin of generation, and as a result of that, having a direct impact on income, partially offset by the worsening of financial results due to the interest rates in the period and the slightly higher leverage. On slide 7, this is important.

We greatly increased the investments that are being made from previous auctions that we won, the transmission auction, as well as the allocations that we had in T&E, the investment in the revitalization of Itaipu, from 534 million in the first quarter of next, last year to close to 2 billion now, this quarter. As for reinforcement and improvements, there was a brief pause here this quarter, or this half-year compared to the previous half-year, but the trend is still of growth, a slight growth this year.

That when we look at investments that we're making and all the backlog that we already have contracted, that are slightly higher than 15 billion BRLs, should add an RAP of 2 billion/year. The generation backlog, that was the LRCAP auction that we won, with 250 megawatts, with investments of close to 1 billion.

On slide 8, and portfolio management, as I had mentioned, we uncrossed a series of minority stakes, including ISA Energia, where we received close to a billion in proceeds, stakes in four small transmission lines with CEB, where we had proceeds of 150 million BRL, and the payment for the consolidation of the Três Irmãos HPP of 256 million BRL. On slide 9, in allocable capital, again, every quarter we analyze how much we have of allocated funding or to be allocated, and this quarter, we reached the number that we would have 3.7 billion, considering the 4 billion that we had declared in the first quarter, for this half-year, we'll have 7.7 billion of shareholder returns to be executed in the coming months.

As for the redemption, going back now, we declared a redemption of 2 billion with a closing price of 53.71 BRL per share. Our shareholders will have until August 14th to opt in to, for the redemption or to convert into common shares.

If the choice is for conversion, they would receive the shares on August 18th, and if they're redeeming, on August 24th. Now getting into the energy trading section, slide 11.

This is just a slide to understand how much we had available for trading on ACL, it doesn't mean ICR, it doesn't mean that we didn't sell, it was available due to long-term assets and the quota that we don't negotiate, not only in the total of 11 gigawatts, but by the breakdown by submarket. Since each submarket has a different price behavior, we give you this breakdown to make your analysis easier.

On slide 12, where we show the evolution of contribution margin from generation. As I said, it has improved compared to the previous year.

Now looking at the unit margin, it would have gone from 80 to 100 quarter-on-quarter, that's a lot due to the mix, the mix of prices and submarkets was more favorable this quarter than in the same quarter of last year. On the right, we show you a little bit of seasonality, looking at MRE overall and how our available capacity would be for our energy in each one of the quarters, considering that same seasonality of MRE and the projections of CC.

On slide 13, now a little bit about the hydrological scenario for the quarter. Obviously, the second quarter, it's where we start the dry season, although El Niño did bring already higher rain levels in the south, but since the main reservoirs are in the southeast and northeast, there has been a short-term impact, but our view to the medium and long term, it doesn't change.

Now for prices, as I talked about before, this quarter, the prices in the north, northeast versus the prices in the southeast compared to the previous year were better. That was the biggest contributor to the margin from generation this quarter compared to the previous, the same quarter in the previous year.

Now talking about ESG on slide number 15. The main agendas, first was the completion of the migration to Novo Mercado, the highest corporate governance segment of B3, where each shareholder has equal and full voting rights, as well as political and economic rights.

We were awarded the Pro-Ethics seal for 2025/2026, a very important seal illustrating our commitment to ethics and transparency and strengthening corruption prevention and governance and compliance practices at the company. In the environmental side, it's important to mention 30 projects that are about 78 million BRL in investments to recover the environment and the basin of the Parnaíba River, one of the main basins we have in Brazil.

Slide 16, is at the top of all the headlines talking about the super El Niño, and for us, this is part of our journey. What's this journey that we started in 2023?

It's a journey for adaptation and resilience to climate risk. In 2023, we started a deep dive into the climate risk and assessment of generation for generation assets.

In 2024, based on this diagnosis and assessment, we defined a series of adaptation plans for our assets, running risk assessment for transmission assets. In 2025, but also starting in 2024, we started to implement these plans.

In 2026, we already have 60% of those plans implemented, expected to be concluded by 2028, it could be slightly before that. What's most important is that this is an ongoing analysis of climate variables and all future trends looking at a 50-, 70-year horizon, how we'll be prepared for any changes.

What came from this journey? First, once again, to talk about our Climate Event Monitoring and Intelligence Center that has an extensive use of artificial intelligence to improve our weather models and to forecast extreme events, which is greatly helpful for our operations, with 100% of our assets being monitored.

Based on this journey, we've updated our methodology to assess new investments considering the climate factors. That's already applied both for the transmission auctions and for any assets that we may be looking at, for example, for M&A operations.

I think this concludes our presentation. We can move on to the Q&A session.

Thank you.

Operator

We will now begin the questions and answers session for investors and analysts. If you'd like to ask a question, please provide your name and company via the Q&A icon located at the bottom of your screen.

We kindly ask that you present all your questions at once and wait for the company's response. To submit a question in writing, simply use the Q&A icon and include your name and company.

Our first question, Mr. Fillipe Andrade with Itaú BBA.

Please, Fillipe, you may go ahead.

Fillipe Andrade

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question.

I'd like you to please talk about two topics. First, about the investments of reinforcement and improvements, if the company expects to reach revenue of 5 billion this year, income of 5 billion this year; and second, considering the stronger El Niño and looking at at least the end of the first quarter of next year, I'd like to hear about Axia's view not only about the short-term effects in terms of available energy, but the dynamics expected for prices in the north if this scenario remains until next year.

We saw here a volume of purchases in the second quarter, I'd like to understand if there's any relationship with that in that sense. Thank you.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Fillipe, thank you. The first question about investment, I'll ask Elio to answer, and the second about El Niño and the consequences, Rodrigo Limp.

Élio Wolff

Fillipe, good morning. Thank you for the question.

You mentioned here about the reinforcements and improvements, to talk about the resilience of assets are essential, and we've been increasing since 2022, 2023, starting from 2, 3 billion, closing 2024 at 3.3, '25 with 4.5 billion BRLs, and this agenda obviously advances. Our objective is to close at around 5, 5.5 throughout 2026, and we won't stop here.

The objective here is to invest more in our assets, reinforce resilience even more. This investment brings returns to shareholders as well, it's very adequate, and we will continue seeking growth.

Thank you, Fillipe.

Rodrigo Limp Nascimento

Good morning, Fillipe. Thank you as well for the question about the effects of El Niño in energy prices and portfolio.

We already perceived an increase in rainfall in the south region. We had in the south the highest rainfall in the last two years, and that naturally brings pressure downwards in the short-term prices, especially July, August, and September, with the recovery expected starting as of October.

In our portfolio, we consider all possible scenarios. El Niño as a concept has some effects that tend to increase intensity, for example, higher rainfall in the south, we already saw, a reduction of rainfall in the north and northeast regions, and temperatures above average in the majority of the country, without a clear definition of what happens with rainfall in the southeast, which is where we have the majority of our reservoirs.

In our forecasts and looking at everyone that monitors this, we see the forecast of having a strong El Niño until the first quarter, considering the summer and the rainy season, if these effects are confirmed, then the north and northeast may also increase price volatility. In terms of strategy, what we consider is this increase in volatility and the price range that may happen depending on the intensity of each of the scenarios, naturally seeking to expand sales, especially in the north and northeast submarkets, where we have more energy available.

Fillipe Andrade

Thank you, Limp.

Operator

Our next question, Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. Bruno, you may go ahead.

Bruno Amorim

Good morning, everyone. I'd like a quick follow-up about capital allocation, specifically on reinforcements and improvements.

Could you comment a little bit about how much this desire to increase investments is because in the financial viewpoint, the returns are positive, and how much of it is somewhat to mitigate operational risks because of investments in an asset that's under-invested? I ask that in the context that we saw with TNBs at 8%, Selic rate at 14%, cost of capital today is very high vis-à-vis regulatory returns, the idea is to understand whether you do see a return or very high spread in terms of cost of capital adjusted to risk, or if the more operational side of the decision also has a significant weight in the decision to increase investments in this area.

Thank you.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Bruno, I'll start, it's Ivan. The risk is infinite, this management of operational resilience is taken very seriously by the company, and at the same time, combined with that, we have very adequate returns, and I'll ask for more details.

Eduardo Haiama

Thank you, Bruno. Thank you, Ivan.

About reinforcement and improvements, first, aware that this is mandatory investments of each concessionaire, we have to do that for the resilience of the assets in the long term. With that said, whenever we look at regulated investments, we look at the history, the behavior of ANEEL, with a very strong alignment with the agency, increasing the adequate returns so that the concessionaire can allocate capital irrespective of the macroeconomic scenario, with a robust financial position at every moment.

Noting that tariff reviews occur every five years, and occasionally, when there's a very strong breakdown, it could happen at a shorter period. For that, whenever there's a shift in the macro view in terms of liquidity or any different scenario, or the opposite, when there starts to be very strong tailwinds, it doesn't make sense to the payment detached from the reality.

When we look in the long term, the perceived returns are very compliant to each of the different moments, and historically, that's what's been happening. The decision, as Ivan said, first in terms of resilience and the need to maintain the assets thinking about the long term, but on the financial side, it is our confidence in the role of regulation in Brazil that has always been constructive, since it's attracting the necessary investments for those who are here for the long game.

Operator

Our next question, Arthur Pereira with J.P. Morgan.

Please, Arthur, you may go ahead.

Arthur Pereira

Good morning. I'd like to ask about allocable capital that was announced this quarter of 3.7 billion, that was similar to the first quarter, despite the decrease in the short-term energy operation that we saw and that was mentioned in the call.

I know you don't break down a lot of your assumptions, but I'd like to understand in qualitative terms, what brings you confidence of an allocable capital similar to the first quarter despite this price of energy? Is it confidence in the 2027 curve or any review on the conservative price used in the methodology, considering that in recent months, even with atypical rainfall, PLD was at a level above 120 with this higher hourly allocation of contracted volume?

You also talked about the allocable capital of 2 billion, the redemption of 2 billion that was announced, that was also seen as a test. Would you have a level of redemption that you consider more recurring, and what would you be testing in this process now with this amount?

Thank you.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Arthur, this is Ivan. The company during these four years with this privatization process went through a deep de-risking phase.

Overall, everything that we found and worked on during these years, as was summarized in the beginning, the reduction of contingencies, increase of investments to improve operational resilience, and so on, that leads us to have a sophistication of models every quarter. That's why we disclose these numbers with increasing confidence regarding our models, price prediction models, and the behavior of the company in terms of financial management and others.

To give you a little bit more details, I'll turn the floor to Haiama.

Eduardo Haiama

Thank you, Arthur. Again, for our methodology, we don't look at a specific year or moment, we look at a longer period of time.

We'd look at a 5-year, a 5 years window going forward, and the prices that we adopt are always conservative. As you mentioned, this quarter the PLD was weaker, the price was lower, next year it may go up and may go down.

We adopt this for the capital allocation to maintain the company in a robust position, not at the worst scenario, but considering adverse scenarios that we present. Based on that, we estimate what we were able to generate in excess of this conservative scenario at every quarter going forward.

As Ivan mentioned, we adapt our models and the way we look at the generation segment in terms of the volatility and how it should behave. A price that I consider aggressive today may become conservative, a conservative price may become aggressive, and that will be a constant input for our models.

In this specific case, there was no real variation, it was more an action where we accelerated this year, as we mentioned, the sale of energy, obviously there's inflation and that's classified, we don't disclose the value, but we have advanced, as was mentioned in the first quarter, and that made us comfortable to project this additional allocated capital for the quarter. It was more that than any other thing.

About the redemption, if it's going to be 2 billion, 1 billion, 3 billion, 4 billion for each operation, actually, it's going to depend on the moment. For the 2 billion, it really is to test, and in the first redemption we ran 30 million, where slightly more than 4,000 shareholders, individual holders were affected by the redemption, that they had to act either to redeem or convert to common shares.

Since it was successful and we're running this operation now with a shorter term, we chose to run a bigger operation with 2 billion BRL, where in this case, it's not 4,000 shareholders anymore that will have to give an opinion if they prefer to redeem or convert, now it's going to be 50-, 60,000 individual shareholders. Really now, with this test, if it is successful, and we believe it will be, that's what we've been talking about to all the stakeholders for a long time to be sure it works, this will probably be the last actual test that we're going to run, and from now on, it's going to be normal, usual redemptions.

The operation itself will depend on the timing. If you tell me that for any reason, our share prices dropped and we don't see any reason for that, and we think it's a good time to get a bigger redemption, we may do that, or the opposite, if by some reason it went up without any specific reason, we may hold onto it a little bit longer, it's like a buyback.

There's no necessary volume by operation or specific timing of when it's going to be done. The only thing is that the allocable capital that we declare to our investors that we'll run of 7.7 billion, of which so far 30 million is 30 million has been executed, and now with this 2 billion redemption.

Thank you.

Arthur Pereira

Excellent, thank you.

Operator

Once again, to ask a question, inform your name and company via the Q&A icon, or click on Raise Hand. Our next question is in writing from Daniel Travitzky from Banco Safra.

Daniel says: Two questions. Hello.

First question: can you comment about energy allocation in the third quarter and how the energy sales performed this quarter? Second question: can you remind us about the dividend policy and how it complements the redemptions of PNCs that you've been running every quarter?

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Thank you, Daniel. The first starting with Rodrigo Limp.

Rodrigo Limp Nascimento

Thank you, Daniel, for your question. Talking about energy allocation in the third quarter that was shown in the slide, the third quarter within the year is the quarter where we have fewer resources due to a lower GSF.

However, comparing this to 2025, we have an expectation to have more resources than we had last year, with a bigger load than what was seen last year. In terms of price, today's view is of lower prices than last year.

Although it's the quarter with fewer resources, it's always also the quarter where we have a detachment from submarkets that are smaller than the first and second quarters, and that makes us more comfortable to analyze the energy allocation. Comparing to medium-term horizons of 2027, 2028, we have an idea of which energies are contracted, and we have a controlled position for the quarter.

About sales, I turn to Ítalo.

Ítalo Tadeu de Carvalho Freitas Filho

Thank you, Daniel. Thank you, Limp.

The second part of your question, Daniel, talking a little bit about sales, and in line with what Limp said about allocation and submarkets, the much smaller difference between submarkets, we accelerated and saw an acceleration of energy sales in the northeast. This is an interesting part for Axia because then we have a large volume of energy, the efforts for sales were focused on that region.

In the southeast, obviously, there will always be a demand, and within the portfolio policy, we meet that demand, but this search for energy through the end client, note that our effort is to sell to the end client, residential and commercial, C&I, so that's the main focus, and that's in the northeast, it's contributing a lot more this quarter for the company sales, and overall sales are focused on end clients. Thank you.

Daniel, about the second part of your question, I'll ask Haiama to add.

Eduardo Haiama

Thank you, Daniel. Talking about redemption versus dividends, considering the price of shares, I'll say that preferably we would have redemptions paying dividends at a mandatory minimum of 25%.

Obviously, if the price of shares triple from the current price with no rational explanation, and we'll start paying more dividends and not redemption, as any buyback. If you ask me today what our strategy should be, I would say minimum dividends of 25% and everything else via redemption, noting that our capital allocation is a shareholder payment in cash.

If by chance the majority of our shareholders choose to convert PNC shares into common shares instead of redeeming them, we would have more redemptions because the idea is to give back these resources of 7.7 billion to shareholders.

Operator

Thank you, Haiama. The questions and answers session is concluded.

We would like to turn the floor to Mr. Ivan Monteiro to deliver the company's closing remarks.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Once again, thank you very much for participating. Any additional information, please contact our IR team.

Thank you very much, have a great day. The Axia Energia conference is now closed.

We thank everyone for your participation and wish you a great day.