Tomás Lozano Derbez
[del Futuro and bineo?] .
He will conclude presenting our 2026 guidance. Please note that today's presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.
On page 2 of our conference call deck, you will find our full disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements. Thank you.
Marcos, please go ahead.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Tomás. Good morning, everyone.
I hope this new year brings you all the best, and thank you for joining us today. As I always say, I consider myself an evidence-based optimist.
Despite a challenging operating environment marked by a sluggish economic growth and a trade and regulatory uncertainties, we closed the year delivering on the commitments we set to the market, showing solid and resilient performance across our key structural metrics. After the strong fourth-quarter results and overall throughout 2025, I have a constructive view of this new new year's operating momentum and our ability to keep capturing market share.
On the macro front, we expect GDP to end 2025 in line with our initial expectation of 0.5%. Looking ahead, we anticipate a recovery in Mexico economic activity in 2026, reaching 1.8% GDP growth, supported by stronger private consumption.
We expect incremental tourism spending from the FIFA World Cup to add 40 to 50 basis points in GDP growth, together with a rebound in construction and investment. Exports should remain a key driver of growth, particularly due to the fundamental USMCA trade negotiation taking place with the US.
We expect dialogue to remain constructive, and we believe current global conditions point toward greater integration of value chains between both both countries, enabling the opportunity to strengthen the development hubs under Plan México, boost investment, and reinforce Mexico's role as a strategic North American partner. On monetary policy, after the Mexican Central Bank cut its reference rate by cumulative 300 basis points in 2025, closing the year at 7%, we believe it is now nearing the end of its easing cycle.
For 2026, we anticipate inflationary pressures to reach 4.4%. Therefore, we forecast two additional 25-basis-points cuts in the first half of the year, bringing the policy rate to 6.5%, which we expect to be the terminal rate for the current cycle.
On the fiscal side, the government is expected to maintain its consolidation efforts in 2026, in line with the budget approved by the Congress. Finally, we expect exchange rate to remain stable in 2026, supported by a weaker US dollar, lower risk premiums, ample global liquidity, and favorable macro conditions for the Mexican peso, thus expect expecting a year-end level of 18.1 pesos per dollar.
Now, starting off with the group's overall financial performance on the slide number 3, we closed the year with a very strong quarter supported by a solid operating trends, with lending and fee activity expanding, driven by healthy private consumption, declining cost of funds, and higher seasonal transaction volumes. Margin performance was supported by our continued efforts to minimize our balance sheet sensitivity, strong risk metrics, and optimized funding cost, which fully offset the impact of declining rates of the loan portfolio.
Capital generation remains strong and continues to support high value returns for our shareholders. We closed the year with a 20.1% capital adequacy ratio, widely surpassing the TLAC requirements of 18.34 34%, which is now fully implemented after a four-year ramp-up period, and a CET1 of 12.6%, aligned with our management target after the distribution of the extraordinary dividend at the end of the last year.
After delivering an 88% payout ratio in 2025, we still hold close to 11 billion pesos at the holding company available for organic growth alternatives. Before moving into profitability, as you know from our material event at the end of the year, we finalized the acquisition of Tarjetas del Futuro.
Therefore, we have deconsolidated the legal entity from the group's and the bank's financial statements and integrated its operations into Banorte. With this, Tarjetas del Futuro was recognized as a discontinued operation, and the reclassification was made retroactively up to 2024, as per the accounting norms.
This step enhances our value proposition by building on the scale and operational capabilities that we already have, allowing us to evolve from a single-product business into a multi-product platform, boosting profitability and creating larger opportunities for growth. Now, continuing with profitability on slide number 4, reported net income for the quarter reached 15.9 billion pesos, up 22% sequentially.
This marks a strong recovery after a quarter impacted by an isolated Stage 3 loan case, as showing solid performance across our core businesses, a well-protected balance sheet, healthy risk metrics, and the offset of the year-end expense seasonality. With accumulated figures, net income reached 58.8 billion pesos, fully in line with our guidance and 5% higher than in 2024, driven by the diversification of our revenue streams and disciplined expense management.
ROE for the quarter stood 24.2%, 411 basis points higher compared to the previous quarter. For the full year, ROE stood at 22.8%, up 36 basis points in the year and very close to the upper end of our guidance.
Analyzing results by subsidiary in slide number 5, the bank reported net income of 12.5 billion pesos in the quarter and 46.5 46.5 billion pesos in 2025, with sound core banking operations driven by healthy lending growth, especially in the fixed-rate portfolio, neutralization of balance sheet sensitivity, optimized cost of funds, and a strong fee revenue. All together, these results yielded a 20 29% ROE for the bank in 2025, 5 basis points above 2024.
Notably, December ROE reached reached a very strong 36.8%, confirming the positive trend where we ended the year and enter 2026. Rafa will provide more details later in the presentation.
The insurance business grew 23% compared to 2024, driven by higher premium issuance, mainly in the life segment, and additional business generation related to the bank's lending activity. These factors helped offset higher fees from the bancassurance operation.
The annuities business slightly contracted by 1% versus 2024 and 7% quarter-on-quarter, largely explained by a base effect from the last-year release of technical reserves, despite higher business volumes. As for the pension fund businesses, cumulative positive results were driven by higher yields on financial products and increasing fees from larger base assets under management, despite growing expenses from commercial efforts aimed at attracting customers from different demographics.
Finally, the brokerage the brokerage sector reported double-digit growth, boosted by larger transaction fees. On slide number 6, loan portfolio growth was in line with guidance, expanding 8% in year in the year and 9% excluding the government portfolio.
Commercial and corporate portfolios grew 5 and 8% respectively, still driven by short-term working capital requirements. As I mentioned before, due to to the uncertainties surrounding the USMCA renegotiation, both segments decelerated during the year.
However, we remain confident that a positive outcome will lead to a rebound in the second half of 2026. Moreover, these portfolios were also impacted by exchange rate fluctuations in the dollar book, which currently represents 14.5% of the total portfolio.
On the other hand, our government book rose 1% in the year and 19% quarter-on-quarter. This year-end acceleration was mainly related to resuming activity with states and municipalities, despite large prepayments registered during the quarter.
We reiterate our appetite for government lending, and we are constructive in the collaboration we can have with the government to develop the country with with infrastructure projects as Plan México evolves. Turning to slide number 7, overall consumer lending remained the main growth driver of the loan expansion, increasing 12% in the year, supported by resilient consumption trends and employment levels, an effective cross-sell strategy tailored to each client's needs, and the continued scaling of our hyper-personalization model.
The mortgage book rose 7%, thanks to an improved origination process, strategic alliances, and a disciplined risk approach. We anticipate a reactivation in the sector's demand as the reduction in the reference rate is transferred to customers' pricing.
Auto loans posted a strong 32% increase for the year, supported by our commercial alliances with leading car dealerships and higher overall activity in the sector. We continue to build a robust network that ensures our availability and the competitiveness of our offering with the best-selling brands.
Looking ahead, we expect growth to moderate into the high teens in 2026, following a higher base. Regarding credit cards, this business rose 14% year-over-year, driven mainly by our improved promotions, enhanced rewards and loyalty programs for existing clients, along with tailor-made market marketing campaigns, allowing us to fully capture the seasonal increase in transactions.
Finally, payroll loans also displayed solid growth, up 11% versus 2024. This reflects our refreshed product offering, designed to meet short-term liquidity needs, combined with process improvements and greater availability through digital channels, while also driving additional demand deposits that help optimize funding costs.
On slide number 8, we maintained top-level asset quality with an NPL ratio of 1.4% at year-end, despite the non-systemic case in our commercial portfolio discussed last quarter and continued growth across all portfolios. Cost of risk stood at 1.8%, fully in line with our guidance for the year.
It is also worth noting that so far, we see no signs of sectorial or geographical deterioration in our books, and we expect this indicator to continue normalizing throughout 2026 as consumer lending continues to expand. On slide number 9, fees grew 20% sequentially and 5% for the full year.
The sequential increase reflects higher transactional activity driven by seasonal factors. For the year, stronger volumes in consumer products and mutual funds, together with the effect of prioritizing efficiency and profitability in digital affiliated businesses, drove these positive results.
However, it was slightly offset by a larger fees paid on credit origination to the external sales force. These results reflect the strength of our operating model, supported by the continued evolution of our digital capabilities, disciplined risk approach, process improvement efficiencies, and our ability to deliver hyper-personalized offerings tailored to our customers' needs.
This combination has strengthened operational efficiency, enhanced service quality and customer experience, and reinforced our execution execution consistently consistency. Importantly, these capabilities enable us not only to mitigate the impact of limited economic growth on the country, but also to strengthen customer preference and loyalty, making Banorte stand out and capture opportunities as the competitive landscape landscape evolves.
On the ESG front, on slide number 10, I would like to highlight the environmental pillar, where we made relevant progress in lowering our energy and water consumption from our operations during the year. In our branch network, we obtained the EDGE sustainable certification for the first 48 branches, and we will go for more in 2026.
We completed the installation of electric vehicle chargers in all our corporate buildings, supporting sustainable mobility for our employees. Now, more than 30% of the energy that we use comes from renewable sources.
Furthermore, as I mentioned earlier, auto loans had a relevant growth during the year, and more than 23% of them were hybrid and electric vehicles. Regarding our commitment to plant 1 million trees by 2030, we not only met, but exceeded our 2025 target, planting more than 240,000 trees across Mexico.
On the social front, as every year, we participated in Mexico Financial Education Week, providing workshops and conference to more than 6,000 women and young professionals, as part of our our responsibility to help our clients make the best use of the products and services that we provide. Finally, before I pass the word to Rafa, I would like to address some concerns about our competitive landscape.
We know we operate in an environment with intense competition for clients, for talent, and investor capital. This drives us to constantly review our processes, our technology, and value propositions so that we remain the top choice for our customers, the best developer of talent for our people, and the most attractive investment for our shareholders.
As I mentioned before, looking ahead to 2026, we will keep expanding our digital capabilities and deliver delivering hyper-personalized solutions while maintaining solid fundamentals, disciplined risk management, and strong profitability and growth metrics. With these priorities, we are confident Banorte is well-prepared to capture opportunities and navigate challenges in an evolving market, competing effectively with both incumbents and digital players alike.
Now, I pass the word to Rafa to cover the main financial results, as well to discuss our guidance for the year. Rafa, please go ahead.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Thank you, Marcos. Thank you all for for for attending the the the conference.
The first part that we would like to to to look at is how the the NII really really moving through the into the year. What you can see on the on the table, basically, if we look, we saw a very strong growth in NII, basically on the loan and deposits.
We will explain why the the funding cost is trending down and and and a strong growth in the consumer side that allow us to to get a a better yield on the portfolio. There was also something that needs to be relevant for the for the comparison about the possibilities and the potential of the bank.
When you look at the FX, the FX affected us by 2.1 billion pesos, that is is is is really something to consider because we never put that on the on the budget, and this a this have really a deduction of the of the it affects several several lines that we will see on the on the on the on the next pages, but I think it was a a really an unexpected hit, 2.1 billion, and and and we end up delivering the the results. On the annuities, you see a very slight effect by the by the by the UDI, nothing really really relevant.
The NII for the the total NII for the for the for the quarter was 8%, and for the year was 6%. It's relevant to notice what I mentioned before, how the loans and deposits are really moving forward at a 14% year-on-year basis.
The net interest net net interest income for the quarter was on the on the on the low side, but for the year was 85% year-on-year. Premium income grew 24%, and there was I I will discuss in a bit the the effect that we have on the on what happened on the claims and the on the insurance company.
Claims went up 8% on a on a on a year-to-year basis, but but the the insurance company, we will see in in in a moment, had a very, very, very, very strong year. Moving then to the to the net interest margin, we continue to deliver a very resilient NIM for the bank.
It moved to 6.8 for the for for the for the for the year, and basically you see a 13 basis points growth that the growth on the on the year-to-year basis. Net fees also was a very good story.
Net fees grew 22% year-on-year, and and and basically we continue to see a very, very strong activity on every single one of the channels that we that we serve the the the the clients. If we move then to the sensitivity, you will see a a slight pick-up on the sensitivity to 418 18 18 million pesos, that if you look at the local sensitivity on the NII, it's really less than 0.
0.2 and 0.3 on the on the dollar and on the on the peso book. The effect that happened in December was that the the government book finally picked up in December, as you know.
You have a a a very a very rapid growth on the on the on the on the lending side, but at the same time, the the the funding side really grew and at a very, very fast pace also. Even if you see a a movement on sensitivity, you will you will also see a pick-up on the margin because that that that assets were funded with a very low funding funding cost, okay?
The balance sheet on the on the foreign currency, basically we we tried to be stable on that. As on the on the foreign currency, we don't we don't have a fixed-rate assets like we have on the on the peso book, and we continue to build build up the the peso book, obviously to continue our our strategy and adapting to the to the training on the on on the rates.
If we go to the profitability of of the bank, we basically see that net income had a very very good growth on net income for the bank, 16% year year-on-year, and we have a very strong for very very strong fourth quarter because the momentum and the dynamics of the lending, funding, as fees continue to be very, very aggressive, much better than than than previous years. The bank's return on equity ended up around 31.8, and I will I will show you in a minute what was the the effect on in December.
The ROA continues to be a solid 2.7% on the ROA. If we move, I would I would like to to move into a graph that shows exactly how we are managing the the the the the asset side of the group and the and the and really the side of the group.
The the graph that you see on the top side, it shows exactly what is the rate that we are charging on the asset side. That's the overall the overall rate for the asset side.
Then the next graph is a is a slight blue-color line that that really shows how has been the decrease in the in the in the official rate for the for the asset side. Then you see at at the bottom of the page, a red line that really shows the funding cost, and you see a very a very continuous decrease on the on the on the pace of growth on the on the funding cost, ended up at 3.
3.8. The most important graph is the one that is the is the darker one that really shows that we have been continue to be able to manage the return on the book at an 8.3%.
What you what that that means that the spread of the book continue to hold pretty steady, even though the the decrease in the in the rates. That is what is really sustaining the margin in a very, very steady steady pace.
On the on the on the next on the next slide, you see our our continuous effort to continue to go to the levels that we would like to have the funding cost. The funding cost ended up at 44.1% at the at the end of the year, basically because as you saw, the non-interest-bearing deposits grew 12%, we continue to grow our non-interest-bearing deposits.
The the mix has evolved to 70-30, we continue to be quite attractive to be a a bank that that basically supports most of the operations in the retail, in the SME, and the transactional banking piece, and in the government side. That allow us to have, along with the payables, a continuous source of cheap funding that we continue that we continue to grow.
Basically, if we move next to the cost of risk, you will see that the cost of risk is trending now to a much more normal levels that we used to have, based upon the the effect that we have on the third quarter. You continue to see also on the graph the write-off that continued to be very disciplined and very very steady.
Credit provisions now that are down again to the level that we that we like to have and that we expected to have on the on the on the on the budget. I would like to to to really guide you to something that is going to confuse you guys in a bit, based upon the the integration of Tarjetas del Futuro.
Also, as as Tarjetas del Futuro was not was not was not part of the overall processes and procedures that we have at the at the bank. Even we we we tried to advance as most as we can, but there was obviously not the same the same methodologies and processes and that.
A very good example of that was exactly how the the provision inside on the on the on the on TDF has been built up. When we integrate TDF, obviously we put all the the processes and procedures that we have at the bank, there was a a a a release of provisions on on on TDF on that, that now seems when you integrate all the all the numbers at the bank that was a huge drop in the cost of risk.
I would like to to to to ask also Gerardo on that, but to be very clear, the cost of risk that after you do all the numbers and and things is really much more close to 1.92, that I I think is the number that we feel comfortable after all the integration, procedures, methodologies, and that. I would like Gerardo to please continue to explain on this.
Gerardo Salazar Viezca
Gladly, Rafa. Hi, I am Gerardo Salazar, Chief Risk and Credit Officer of Banorte.
Regarding this issue, I will tell you that although Tarjetas del Futuro adopted a regulatory-style framework as a conservative market benchmark, given Tarjetas del Futuro mono-line business model, limited customer interaction beyond credit, and an elevated observed annualized net credit losses were approximately 28%, Tarjetas del Futuro management applied a significant management overlay, resulting in an allowance of roughly 30% of the outstanding portfolio to ensure adequate short-term loss absorption. Following the integration of the loan portfolio of Banorte's book, the portfolio was recognized and subsequently managed under the bank's IFRS 9-compliant expected credit losses framework, consistent with the methodology applied across the bank's retail credit portfolios.
This resulted in a removal of TDF's conservative overlays and the recalibration of loss-given-default assumptions based on Banorte's historical performance, recovery experiences, and servicing capabilities. To be more specific, when you take into consideration Banorte managing this portfolio, Banorte has better collections infrastructure, more effective early warning systems, stronger legal recovery processes, and broader restructuring tools.
That is, the probability of default of this portfolio remains the same, that has not changed, but loss given default declines, and that justifies a lower provisioning for in this case. Thank you, Gerardo.
Now we move to another line that was affected because of the integration, that is the expense growth. As you remember, we commit at the beginning of the year to have a single-digit growth on the expense line, and we achieve that, but what it needs some explanation because of also the integration of TDF and bineo.
Basically, what you see on the graph is that let's concentrate on the overall numbers, that is the non-interest expenses, that is 52.2 billion in 2024, that moves to 57.7 in 2025. That's an 11% growth.
The reason for that 11% growth is that, based upon the accounting rules, you have to erase from the base the bineo and the TDF expense line, it seems that expenses grow in a more important way. In reality, when you put those expenses back again on the base, really the expense growth was only 9%, that is in line what we committed to the market.
That 9% is the one that is the real number once you put again on the base the numbers that are basically the same ones that were in 2020 2024. Also we achieve on that, and you saw that in a much more explanation on the graph.
When you go to the graph that is basically the efficiency ratio that shows what we call the jaws of it continued to expand at a very good pace. Revenue continues to grow nicely, expenses are much more under control, and that will continue to be the case for bineo and for TDF.
Let me be very clear on one thing. On the bineo side, we currently have an expectation of to have around 1 billion pesos of expenses for the year in the case that the sale doesn't get completed in the full year.
If the sale gets completed before the full year, then you have a reduction of that 1 1 billion that will see on the expense line on that part. On TDF also, you will see that also our expectation is to reduce the expenses around 500 million, close to 800, 900 that were in the past.
Additional efficiencies will come in from those two, but we have to go from the timing of the activities on the bineo side and taking very good care of TDF, of Tarjetas del Futuro, to be able to really keep the clients that we have been built in the company, that are close to 600,000 clients. 60% of those clients are profitable clients that have the capability to be cross-sell once we integrate everything in Banorte.
That was going to be the case of TDF, where we'll continue to be a very important provider of clients of a segment that was not in the past an appetite of Banorte. Once we clear the expense line, I would like to go now to capital and liquidity.
There was also some comments about what is the liquidity ratio. The liquidity ratio continues to be old and efficient.
We were at a point in time when the things were not very clear. We have an additional surplus on liquidity.
We feel very comfortable with 162 liquidity ratio. When you go to the capital ratio, it's the first time that you see the 12.6 on the core Tier 1.
If you look at the holding company, the holding company still basically is managing 10 billion pesos more that is part of this capital that has not been assigned to the bank. You will continue to see that, based upon the momentum of the bank and the subsidiaries, a very good growth on the capital base to be again at the 13% in the first quarter.
The TLAC that have now been fully adjusted is 18.34. We are at 20 20.1.
We feel very comfortable with that, with this based upon the momentum of generating capital that we have at the institution. Another thing to be relevant about this is also that our AT1 have been obviously been affected by the FX that we have.
Now let's see what was the effect of the commitment for 2025. The loan growth ended at 8% in inside the guide, ex-government 9%, net interest margin for the group 6.3, net interest margin for the bank 6.6, expense growth, as I mentioned you before, is the 9.4, taking into account and putting again the basis to be comparable about TDF that we have on the expense line.
The efficiency, 35.8. Efficiency is a number that we need and we would like to continue to lower down.
There will be years that we need to invest more in order to keep the pace with our competitors on this, and this year, it seems to be the case, but we will do a lot of efforts to really grow the revenue base in order to reduce the efficiency ratio. Cost of risk in line, as I mentioned you.
Gerardo explained it. We are not fooling around that about the deconsolidation and consolidation and the effect that we have on the extraordinary situation that we have with TDF.
The real cost of risk that we have is around 1.8. 1.
It ranges from 1.8 to 1 1.84. That's case.
Remember that Tarjetas del Futuro really became again installed at the bank in December 26, and before that was eliminated line by line on the book. When you go into the page of the financial results on page 6, you will see that discontinued operations have the full effect of that, that is around 2.1 billion.
There's no effect of all these numbers in the net income. I would like to make that very, very clear.
All these movements that have because of accounting rules have no effect on the net income of the bank. You will see that on the deconsolidation operations in the financial brochure that we have in page 6, okay?
The tax rate, it was at 27, net income was in line, 58.8. I would like to because I don't want to be let's say jumping around about this number, but 58.8 is including the effect of bineo, the effect of TDF, the effect of FX, and all that at the same time.
Really the performance of the bank was and the group was really, really, very, very strong. Return on equity for the group, 22.8.
That's the number that we would like to have around the 23 on a recurrent basis. Return on equity of the bank is at 29.1, and just an effect that have, and we don't like to play this game, but based upon the payment of dividends that we have in December and a very strong month that we have in December, the return on equity at for the bank at the month of December was 37% return on equity, okay?
Return on assets is 2.3, right in the middle of the guidance. Now I would like to move if Marcos is okay, I move to the
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
guidance. Yes, yes,
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
the guidance. The guidance for 2026 is, as you can see on the
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
screen,
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
loan growth, 8 to 11%, and without the government book, 10
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
to 12%.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Net interest margin for the group, 6.2 to 6.5%. Net interest margin of the bank, 6.4 to 6.8%.
Let me explain why this range on the bank. If we grow the government book, that is expected because it seems that is now a lot of movement concerning infrastructure and things like that.
If that happens, you will see a very accelerated pace of growth on the loan book. Since those loans are very thin on the margin, you will see maybe to trend more to the middle of the NIM of the bank, that is around 6.5.
If that is not the case, the number will be very close to the 6.8. Expenses, and I would like to be clear here on the expense line, for the first time, we are also trying to put a number in pesos in order to try to avoid all the deconsolidation and consolidation for you to be able to really follow the expense growth.
The expense growth, as you see on the recurrent, from 5 to 6%, and in addition, organic growth and investment, because obviously we have been investing for many years in artificial intelligence, but now that part has accelerated a lot, and we have to reinforce the teams on that part. We don't need to buy more technology, but we have to use more the technology that we have, and that's required to really aggregate more people on the artificial intelligence.
On the net income, tax rate, 27 to 29%. Net income is 62 to 64, and taking into considerations other things that is included here.
As there's a lack of the utility in part of the loan book that is affected around 1.2 billion for the year, so that is already included on that part. The return on equity for the group, 22 to 24%, return on equity for the bank, 28 to 30 30%, return on assets, 2.2 to 2.4%.
As you can see, there's a slight pick-up on the cost of risk to 1.8 to 2.1%, not because the wrong reasons, because of the right reasons, because of the rapid pace of growth on the consumer group that really requires much more provisioning at the beginning of the cycle. We are, based upon our chief economist, a GDP of 1.4 to 1.8%, inflation rate 4.2 to 4.6%, and Mexico reference rate 6.5% for the year.
I would also add that we expect the FX to move much more close to the 18% 18 pesos per dollar at the end of the year, but we think that there will be more strengthening of the peso in the coming months. That will also not have the full effect that we have last year, the 2.1 billion, but still will be something that we have to manage.
Let me also tell you about the effect that we have on the FX that was not mentioned before. Because of the 14.
14.5 that we have on the dollar book, the dollar book was affected by the FX when you convert to pesos. If that was not the case, the commercial and the corporate book was really growing around 20 billion pesos more.
That was the effect of the FX. With that, I end my comments, and I pass the word to Marcos.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you. Would you cover any guidance?
Tomás Lozano Derbez
No, thank you. Now we'll go to our Q&A session.
As always, we kindly ask you to present only your most relevant question, and we'll be happy to take any other questions anytime after the call. Questions will be ordered on a first-come, first-served basis.
Please raise your hand on the platform and we will unmute you when the return comes. José Luis and myself will be calling the name of the person that is next in the line.
If there are any technical difficulties, please let us know by using the chat. Thank you.
We are now ready to start the Q&A. We'll start with Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley.
Jorge, please go ahead.
Jorge Kuri
Hi, everyone. Congrats on the numbers and thanks for the conference call.
Quick question on the guidance. Would you mind double-clicking on the credit growth assumptions?
What are the different expectations for the compositions of loans, consumers, mortgages, government, commercial, etc.? How do you think that sensitivity of your guidance is relative to economic growth if USMCA is negotiated favorably early on in the year and we get an economy that is closer to 2%?
How do you see that translating into your loan growth expectations? Thank you.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Jorge. In commercial, the guidance is between 8 and 10.
The corporate is also between 8 and 10. Government is from 0 to 4.
Consumer is from 10 to 14. Mortgage is from 8 to 10.
Credit card is from 14 to 18. Auto loans, 15 to 20.
Payroll, 10 to 12. If you break down the numbers.
Now I will pass to Alex, the economic.
Alejandro Padilla Santana
Thank you, Marcos. Thank you, Jorge.
This is Alejandro Padilla, Chief Economist. Let me just walk you through our 1.8% GDP or this range between 1.4 to 1.8% of GDP for 2026.
What we think is that this year, all the engines of the economy will try to level. Last year, we observed that consumption grew less than 1%.
For this year, we are expecting 2% of growth. This is supported by the World Cup, as Marcos was mentioning.
We think that given tourism and also private consumption in Mexico, we can have additional 30 to 50 basis points there. Also, I think it's important to take into account that last year investment declined around 7%.
We are expecting a mild recovery, only 0.7% in our model. This is supported by additional spending, especially in infrastructure.
When you see the budget for 2026, the government will deploy 1.2% percentage points of GDP in key infrastructure projects. In addition to that, nearly 25% of the budget is going to states and municipalities.
We think that that should push a little bit this investment figure. The other one is exports.
Exports last year grew around 7%. It was a very positive year.
Why? Because when you see the average tariff rate that Mexico is paying is around 4.5%.
The world is paying 16.8. There is, in relative terms, a competitive advantage that Mexico will likely hold throughout 2026.
As you were mentioning, Jorge, this is an important year given the review process of the USMCA. Far, regardless of how this process will take place, we think that Mexico will continue to be a key ally for the US in terms of trade.
We observed it in 2025, and we think that it will continue in 2026. That's the way we are analyzing GDP.
That's a range between 1.4 to 1.8. Just let me close with one thing.
The fourth quarter of 2025 closed with a better momentum than in the third quarter. That will help inertial GDP for Mexico in 2026.
We are calculating that this inertial GDP will at least give you 60 basis points. That 60 basis points is more than what the entire economy grew in 2025.
That's why we are more constructive in terms of GDP dynamics. The other one is that we expect that the US will grow more this year than the previous year.
We have 2.4% of growth supported by consumption in the US, but also by investment. I think this is key, taking into account that in our studies, 56% of the Mexican economy is highly dependent on the US economy.
That's the way we are calculating this range between 1.4 to 1.8 that Rafael mentioned before.
Jorge Kuri
Great. Thank you very much.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Jorge.
Operator
Next question is from Renato Meloni from Autonomous. Go ahead, Renato.
Renato Meloni
Hi, everyone. Congrats on the results, and thanks here for the questions.
I just wanted to pick up here on your earlier comment, credit card growth and payroll growth. We saw some NPL increases this quarter.
I wonder if you can comment a little bit of the dynamics here, and if you expect asset quality to stabilize and enable this growth. Then also related to this, your coverage ratio has been declining, and it's at the lowest level now since 2019 at 134%.
I'm curious to know what level you feel comfortable in operating. Thanks.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Renato, I will pass this to Gerardo Salazar.
Gerardo Salazar Viezca
Thank you, Marcos. I would tell you, Renato, that in payroll lending, the deterioration is attributable to the loss of payroll dispersion from a large client, resulting in a very temporary statistical effect.
Notwithstanding, this impact underlying asset quality trends remain solid, as the remainder of the portfolio continues to exhibit improved performance and declining risk metrics. In credit cards, the increase is partially explained by the consolidation of a higher-risk portfolio, Tarjetas del Futuro, and additionally in December, delinquency ratios was distorted by a denominator effect as the strong origination growth reported in November due to El Buen Fin was offset by a significant but expected prepayment in December.
We see this seasonality effect every year. Within Banorte, credit card portfolios are behaving very well, and also the payroll loans had very, very good risk metrics.
Regarding the coverage ratio, I would say that asset quality is generally improving. Early-stage delinquencies are also declining, and vintage curves show better performance from recent originations.
I would tell you that we have to take into consideration that although this reserve coverage ratio is declining, we have a very high degree of capital strength. We have a high CET1, total capital ratios, and a strong pre-provision operating profit in that regard.
Even if reserves are lower, loss absorption capacity remains very robust. I would tell you, Renato, that you should worry when the reserve coverage ratio declines due to several factors that are not present in Banorte.
Among them is NPLs rising, but reserves are flat or falling. It's not the case.
I have to remark this. Or also, you should be worried if early delinquencies are accelerating.
That's not the case in Banorte. You should be very worried if growth is driven by looser underwriting.
We're not doing that. We'll remain very, very strong with underwriting standards of this bank.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
If I just might add, Renato, on the credit card, don't be surprised if on the first quarter you continue to see a slight pick-up on credit card, very, very slight, and then turning down in a very, very positive way in the second quarter. Because as Gerardo explained, you have a very strong prepayment part.
You continue to grow the book in a very fast pace. We placed close to 890,000 cards last year.
Maybe this year we can reach the million cards, but with a very, very strong placement. Non-first-payment defaults are not present on the group.
All the facilities have been served and follow in a very close way. As Gerardo mentioned, I don't think this is a matter of concern.
It's a matter of seasonality that will blow into the first quarter, but explain them in a very important way into the second quarter.
Renato Meloni
That's very clear. Thanks for the answers.
Gerardo Salazar Viezca
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Now we'll continue with Brian Flores from Citi.
Brian, please go ahead.
Brian Flores
Hi, Rafa, Marcos, Tomás, and team. I wanted to see how sustainable is the savings on the funding side.
Rafa, as we know, Nu, and also now I think other FinTechs like Revolut are joining the system, we are very curious as to where can or how low can this funding cost go. We have been very impressed positively on the results from Banorte.
I think your cost, as you were mentioning in the presentation, is now at 44.1. How sustainable is this with obviously these pressures that could come from newcomers?
If I may just a very quick follow-up, a quick question to Alejandro on Banxico, because I was checking Banxico's survey, I think at the median point is expecting 1.2 in terms of GDP growth. Just checking if maybe he thinks there is some enthusiasm from the World Cup that is missing on consensus numbers.
Thank you.
Gerardo Salazar Viezca
Start with the second one?
Alejandro Padilla Santana
Sure. Thank you, Brian.
I think that we might start observing some adjustments in the market consensus regarding GDP, especially given the figure that will be released this Friday, that is the 2025 preliminary GDP, because then I think the market can recalibrate inertial GDP. Yes, I think that consensus is not taking into account some of the figures that could be important in terms of the World Cup.
Just to put some examples, there are some expectations from FIFA about how many tourists can come to Mexico, and how much money can they spend. When you see the figures of tourism in Mexico, I think that even those assumptions are very conservative.
I think that we can have a positive effect in terms of tourism. It is not only tourism.
Let's take into account that private consumption, especially consumption from Mexicans during World Cup is steered by purchases of screens, obviously services, restaurants, bars, and all of the things that usually when there is a World Cup increases. That's how we think that GDP can be benefited by this 30 to 50 basis points.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Rafael. First one.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Brian, I think your question is a key one about how the dynamics in the market are moving. I think if you look at the numbers that are present on public numbers from most of the FinTechs, what you see is a huge capability of gathering funding at a very high cost, and then a limited part of deploy those funds into the asset side.
That create a very deep imbalance on the process. I would like to say, when you say how you have been able to really lower the funding cost and grow non-interest-bearing deposits about 12%, I think the fact is that Banorte really competes on a value proposition per client.
We don't compete by product. I think that if there's two ways to compete in the market, one is playing the liability side, bringing up a lot of liabilities into the bank, and then you have two costs: the liquidity cost and the cost that you have to really finance that overpayment that you have if you don't have the assets to deploy that.
When you look at the asset side, you can play the game to have a very high cost on the asset side for the clients, and then you have another imbalance, because you are basically a factory of generating non-performing loans and sending people to the credit bureau. I think the way that Banorte competes in the market, and you see that in the activity at the branches and on the digital spaces, that we have a very strong digital foundation, a very, very, very strong digital analytics foundation, and the hyper-personalization that we have at the bank takes into account the value per client, the present value of the client, the potential value for client, and also what is the business that this client has with other banks.
Then we offer them a very comprehensive offer that take into account all those things. When you monetize all the offer that Banorte has, is a much more powerful offer to the client.
The value-added that we put in the hands of the client is not just a very high liability price, but a very good full relationship that allows them to have a very balanced asset, cost side, and a very reasonable funding price on the funding side. Also, you will see on the coming months, more and more Banorte moving into a much more hyper-personalization processes and being able also to attract young players into the market in a very reasonable way, not to try to overshoot the funding side, and have a very reasonable and practical approach to really develop the clients that we have.
That has been the approach that we have on the non-interest-bearing deposits, is playing right the service that the branches provide, the capabilities that we have on the digital, and the surprises that the client receives when they see the hyper-personalization that they receive, is really what is allowing us to have a very good relationship with the client. When they monetize their relationship with Banorte, these are much more profitable relations that they can have with the FinTechs.
That's the reason.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Rafael. Excellent.
Brian Flores
Thank you, Rafael.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Thank you, Brian.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Now the next question is from Pablo Ordoñez from GBM. Pablo, go ahead.
Pablo Ordóñez Peniche
Yes. Hi, good morning, Marcos and Rafael.
Congratulations on your strong results. My question is on the fee side and on the regulatory outlook.
More than looking beyond the interchange fees, what should we expect in terms of digitalization and any boost to CoDi and DiMo? Should we expect any radical changes here?
Any color that you can give us from the meeting yesterday with the government? With this, what should we expect in terms of the fee performance after a very strong year in 2025?
Thank you.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Yeah. The meeting yesterday with the president.
We participated in a meeting, a phenomenal meeting with the president and the Mexican banking sector. The discussion was constructive and reinforced our appreciation of the openness to engage with the private sector.
We welcome the government's collaborative approach to fostering conditions for stronger growth and sustainable investment, as well as its forward-looking agenda to enhance Mexico competitiveness and productivity. At Banorte, we value this dialogue, and it's an important step towards aligning efforts in support of Mexico long-term development.
That's what happened yesterday. It was a good reunion.
Now, Rafa. I would say that the fee side has always been a very attractive point for the regulator just to see.
If you look at the evolution of Mexico and you compare the interchange fees on the debit side and on the credit side, Mexico is quite competitive on that, I think the Mexican Banking Association is have a constant dialogue with the authorities in order to put all the numbers in clear, because this is going to sound a little strange, but this kind of price controls, obviously they benefit the larger banks, and they really affect the smaller banks. That's something that I don't think is right for the market.
I think the market has been behaving pretty good. On the digital evolution on everything, I think the banks are fully prepared to really deploy the digital capabilities that the bank has, even is using CoDi or DiMo on all the infrastructure that the banks has.
I think what Marcos mentioned about also with the meeting yesterday is that it seems that now the digital approach to the Mexican economy is a real one, and I think the banks will be key players on deploying on that part. I'm not worried about the fees evolution.
I think there will be a reasonable part, trying to protect basically the mid and the small banks, not the large banks.
Operator
Thank you.
Pablo Ordóñez Peniche
Thank you, Rafa. A quick follow-up on this: what growth rates in terms of the guidance should we expect for the fee income?
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Excuse me, again? Again, we couldn't hear.
What growth?
Pablo Ordóñez Peniche
What growth rates should we expect for the fee income in
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
2026? 20% for the last year was really a very strong one.
I think fees will be above the loan growth. I think 4, 5 percentage points above loan growth.
That's what we expect to see, because we continue to see a lot of transactionality flowing to the bank. The transactional banking on the corporate, commercial, and the government, and in the retail side continue to be quite active.
Just to give you a number that shows you that, let me just go into the difficult part, the branches. We are now opening 5 to 6, 7 new accounts per branch per day, when we used to have around 3.
That momentum continues to be. The number in digital, you can multiply that number by 5 or by 6.
Still, the balances that come through the branches are much, much higher than the ones that come from digital.
Pablo Ordóñez Peniche
Thank you, Rafa.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Now we'll continue with Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC.
Carlos, please go ahead.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Hello, good morning, and thank you very much for the call. Congratulations on the results.
I want to ask about the FinTech strategy. Now you are integrating Tarjetas del Futuro and bineo.
How are you going to compete with the new FinTechs? Are you going to have any new initiatives?
Are you going to launch something which is a different brand, or you think that banorte.com is where you want to be? Also, accounting-wise, you had a charge in the quarter, I think 6.3 billion pesos directly to equity from the integration of Tarjetas del Futuro.
Is it done? Is there anything else that we need to expect from bineo and from Tarjetas del Futuro?
Did you complete the sale of the license to Klar? Thank you.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Carlos, for the last one, no, that's all. There's nothing more coming.
What you have to see, and you can look at that number in the discontinued operations, there will be a flow in the reduction of the expenses, and basically on the timing on the selling of the bineo brand. No additional costs will come to that.
On digital, I would like to be very careful with this, because Banorte never stays put. As you say, Tarjetas del Futuro will be a key element to continue to provide a flow of clients into Banorte.
Now we can cross-sell them, so that will be a loss for the clients and for Banorte, that they were a monoproduct in the past, and it was difficult really to make a reasonable profit from those relationships. I think we can offer a very good set of products to those clients that could bring additional benefit for them and a reasonable profit for us.
That will be the movement on Tarjetas del Futuro. It's going to be fully integrated into Banorte.
All the scale of Banorte will be playing into Tarjetas del Futuro, but they will still have the individual attractiveness for that part of the market that will continue to be a permanent flow to bring into Banorte new clients. Also, more and more our clients seems to demand, based upon the experience of Tarjetas del Futuro, that we have a much more, let's say, amicable approach to digital with the young generations, and from universities and that.
I think there will be a very good evolution of Banorte into that part of the business. You will see that in a very short term.
We feel very confident in digital. I think Banorte is prime in digital, and you will see that expanded across the country to try to integrate more and more clients into our digital offerings into the market.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Would that strategy include any high-yield account? We see that Revolut is offering 15%.
Are you planning to compete with those offers, or that's not part of your strategy?
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
We will manage a new way, a creative one, not in that way. I think, Carlos, if I go with you and I say, okay, I'm going to give you a 15% here, by the way, what are you going charge me on the credit card?
Then you do the math, and maybe that's not a very good offer. I respect Revolut a lot, and I think it creates a lot of good dynamics into the market, that companies coming to the market and bring more clients into the banking system.
What my main worry is to really take care of those clients, and not over-lend to those clients, and really evolve with them all the financial I would say needed for those guys to be proficient in the way they manage their finance. I think Banorte will surprise the market pretty soon in a very reasonable offer to compete not in a way about the price.
I don't think that has been always a very reasonable one, but sometimes you have to attract the attention of the market because of the price and things, because you don't have anything else, no? You just have an idea.
Banorte, I think, have a very, very, very present and reasonable offering to the market that will evolve in a very intelligent way to really compete with this FinTechs in the very short future.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez
Thank you so much.
Operator
We'll take the next question from Yuri Fernandes from JP Morgan. Go ahead, Yuri.
Yuri Fernandes
Hi, Marcos, Rafa, Gerardo, Tomás, everyone connected. I have a question regarding the majority equity evolution of Banorte.
When we go to the majority equity this year, it was mostly flat year-over-year, around 249 billion, despite the net income. I get you have some dividends, the AT1s, but what called my attention here was a 6 billion hit this quarter from Tarjetas del Futuro, like the acquisitions you had.
My question is: what explained this hit on Tarjetas del Futuro, if you can provide a little bit of more color on this? The explanations on P&L and provisions from Gerardo, they were very good, but this on the equity side was not clear for me.
Thank you.
Operator
Rafa, please go ahead.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Yuri, thank you for your question. Remember that when we started with Tarjeta Futuro, we put down $50 million.
That was basically for a total price of $250 million million. When we tried to really put the capital down, that was around $200 million, there was a restriction on the authorities.
We needed to build up what is called a convertible loan that eventually will be converted into shares. At that point in time, if you go into the premium on the equity side, you see that we have been building that part on the premium side.
There was a convertible loan here, but there was a premium on the equity side. When you see the reduction on the equity side was basically when and we bought the company, and we convert the convertible loan into really a permanent investment into shares, that was basically when we pulled out of that part of the capital based on the premium, and then we build capital into the company.
On the other hand, the company has a loan that was basically guaranteed by a trust that owns the book of the company, okay? The movements that happened in Tarjetas del Futuro was basically the conversion of the convertible loan into shares to put capital, because the company didn't have any capital at all, a commitment that we did when we bought the company, that we were unable to do because of the regulation.
Then a guaranteed loan that was on a trust that was basically owning the loans of the company. When we do all the integration of Banorte, we convert a loan into shares.
Now the company has that capital that was always belonging to that company. Now is on the capital part, and also now you will see on the coming months, started on February 1, that all the loans now will be part, as Gerardo mentioned, of the portfolio of the credit cards of Banorte, and the additional cross-sell that we can give to them.
Basically what you see, Yuri, and thank you for bringing that out, is that convertible loan was basically converted into shares using the brand that we have been saving at the other equity side.
Yuri Fernandes
Got it. Basically, rather than capitalize Tarjetas del Futuro a few years ago, you converted the bond now, and this is just a one-time, right, Rafa?
We should not see this hit again?
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
You will not see any
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
That's important.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
touching the capital base because of Tarjetas del Futuro. It will have a running rate like any product that we have, the provisions and everything, but basically on the running rate of the business, no additional capital, no additional anything.
I think last year, believe me, was a lot of moving parts on this part. Finally, we are out of that.
The only pending part is when bineo is going to be sold. If bineo is sold as sooner as that is being sold, the less we need to continue to spend on the expense side, but no more on the equity side, anything on the equity side.
Yuri Fernandes
No, super clear, Rafa. It was a mess here for us also to read it.
If I may just a easy one and quick one here, just on margins. I think the guidance implies in a flattish margins for you, like 6.3, 6.35,
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
but
Yuri Fernandes
guidance for loan growth is for consumer to grow way faster. Just trying to understand if there is any chance that maybe margins can go higher, like maybe to the high end of the guidance, given your loan mix and the good funding cost.
Thank you.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
No, yeah, I agree with you, Yuri. We are really penalizing the margin, taking into account what Marcos mentioned, that if we see an important acceleration on the government book because infrastructure and things, those loans basically are not very rich in margins, but are very rich in fees and other things.
We are trying to cover the low end, but if you ask me, I think we will be more in the mid to the high end of the margin side, because we continue to have very good funding costs, very reasonable fixed-rate part loans that really sustain the margin in a continuous basis.
Yuri Fernandes
Super clear. Thank you, Rafa.
Thank you, Marcos.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Yuri.
Operator
Thank you. Now we'll continue with Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.
Ernesto, please go ahead.
Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez
Thank you. Hi, good morning, Marcos, Rafa, Tomás, Gerardo, Alejandro, all of connected.
Congrats in your results. I have a follow-up on your guidance.
Should we expect seasonality in the guidance? Should we expect growth to accelerate in the second half, or should we expect consistent growth throughout the year?
Also, on your ROE guidance, how much dividend payout ratio are you assuming for this year? Also, considering your new guidance, should we expect this guidance to reflect Banorte's sustainable ROE for the group in the long term?
Then I just have a very quick question also related to the FinTech competition. We have asked several young people in Mexico if they are served by a financial institution, and we were surprised that most of them have a Nu account, but they don't have a BBVA or a Banorte account.
We were surprised about this because the next generation are using financial services without going to branches. Just wanted to hear your thoughts on how is Banorte positioning to be on the mind of the next generation, and also how do you expect to monetize those younger generations, which tend to be totaleros?
Thank you.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
The first one. Yes, in the guidance, it's not a line that goes up and up.
It will accelerate at the end of the year. Everything is, as we are talking about the agreement with the US, and everything will accelerate as soon as we sign that agreement.
We think that that's going to happen, no, at the end of the year. The second, the dividend that we are giving is, as always, 50% dividend.
Then we'll see if there is an extraordinary, but with these numbers, we're hiding to the 50% dividend. The guidance to reflect Banorte's sustainable ROE for the group in the long term should be, as we say always, 20s 20s 20s, and the idea is to continue with the 20 that everybody is talking about, and use what is a good number, no?
The last one, we're working very hard. You're right.
We need to do something with these young clients, and we're working and I don't know the next quarter or maybe the other one, but we will issue something and we will see with you. I don't know if you want to say something about it, Rafa, but you will be, I hope, surprised, that's the word that we can use, that internally we will do something talking about exactly what you say, no, the young people that they don't use branches, and Banorte should be in the mind of this young generation.
Let's keep in touch.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Just remember Banorte is very clear, and we respect very much the FinTechs that we have in Mexico like Nu, like Klar, like Stori, like Ualá, because they have really brought into the table something that we were kind of in a comfortable way, because we were growing nicely the digital evolution, and basically attracting clients that were profitable for us, profitable for them, and that. I think when you look at the offer of Nu Bank, I'm not talking about the products, but I'm talking about the experience.
I think we can really do a lot more about the experience to attract the clients that we have. What we are really working, as Marcos says, is the capability of Banorte in analytics and artificial intelligence to really flow the needs of the client and the emotions of the clients, not just the needs, but the emotions of the clients, are going to be very soon present into the market.
You will see that. Thank you for the reflection about this, because we have been working in a very, very important way, and we are really, really, I would say, happy about what we can really deliver into the market.
Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez
No, thank you very much, Marcos and Rafa. Very helpful, and congrats again in your results.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Thank you.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, Tito.
Tito Labarta
Hi, good morning. Thank you all for taking my question, and congrats on the strong results.
I guess another follow-up just on the competitive environment, particularly on payroll, right, because I think one of the things all these FinTechs are getting banking licenses for is to try to compete on payroll and get some portability. You mentioned there was some losses there on some payrolls.
Just how do you think about potential competition for that? Can the FinTechs really compete for payroll once they get the banking license?
Is that a risk at all to sort of keep in mind? Also along those lines, another sort of incumbent with Banamex getting spun off of Citi, potentially becoming more competitive.
Just any risk that you see from there as well? Thank you.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
As I stated, the environment is very competitive. We're expecting that, and that's why we need to move faster than the others.
You are right. They are here, and we're 52 banks now, and competing, and we need to do something spectacular.
That's what we are working on, no?
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
I would say, just to add what Marcos mentioned, is that the payroll that we lost was not for young people, was really for civil servants. I challenge you all to see the value proposition that Banorte has on the payroll.
I think we have the strongest value proposition in payroll. It provides credit cards with a very, very reasonable rate.
It provides insurance. It provides savings.
It provides everything that you need to link to your payroll, with a lot of benefits linked because of the relationship that we build on the payroll. I really do challenge to see the offer that we have on the payroll side, that I think is the most comprehensive offer into the market, and the most attractive on a price-wise and functionality for the clients.
Payroll is going to be a battlefield. It's already a battlefield.
Now the battlefield is going to move into the new entrants into the banking system, and that's where we think we can play a very, very clear role.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
If I might add, Rafa, I would say that up to now, with the tremendous respect with these players, FinTechs are winning transactions, and banks like Banorte are winning because we're building ecosystems for the employer and for the employees, and that's a very different type of competition. Just try to keep that in mind.
Tito Labarta
Great, very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Now we'll continue with Marcelo Mizrahi from Bradesco.
Marcelo, please go ahead.
Marcelo Mizrahi
Hello, everyone. Thank you very much for the opportunity here.
My question is regarding the efficiency ratio going forward. We are seeing this integration of Tarjetas del Futuro.
We want to understand the mindset of you guys looking not just to this year, but in a long-term view. What's the efficiency ratio that Banorte will target in the next years?
Thank you.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
We were discussing 34% or 35%. It's going to be 34%.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Our goal is to reach again the 34% not for the next year. We will try to
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
get there,
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
but I think we feel comfortable from 34% and below. I think with all that what we are doing in digital and things and the implementation of artificial intelligence bank-wide, that will help us to deliver that.
Marcelo Mizrahi
These levels that we will see in this year, that's an impact of the integration process.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Exactly right, Marcelo.
Marcelo Mizrahi
Okay. After that, it's possible to see already in these years the ratio starting to come down?
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Exactly right. I think 25 26 will be an in-between year, but a lot of the base to continue to drop to 34% will be set up in '26, because it will be the deploy of a bank-wide artificial intelligence push and also the integration of bineo, the selling of bineo, the integration of TDF.
All that is potential benefits, but it will take time to realize through the year. Maybe at the end of the year, we will be very close to the number that we were trying to reach.
Marcelo Mizrahi
Okay. Thank you.
I have another question. Can I do another question?
You guys were talking about a better performance on corporate credit on the fourth quarter. My question is regarding, do you have any explanation why we saw a better environment and growth on the corporate side already on the fourth quarter?
We were expecting that just in the second half of this year, but it's already starts to be better.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
I will ask René Pimentel to answer that question. Are you there, René?
René Gerardo Ibarrola Ríos
Yes. Thank you.
Basically, during the fourth quarter, we closed a lot of the transactions that had been in the pipeline throughout the year. I think that this year, of course, we will continue to focus on our core sectors in which we have been focusing, which are growing faster than the economy.
Also, we will start looking at the new segments in which Banorte has not been a player before, and that we believe that we have the product and services to offer a good offering to our clients. We believe that this growth will continue throughout the year, and we have a good pipeline for the second half of the year.
Marcelo Mizrahi
We'll continue to see growth in the range that was already mentioned by Marcos, the 8 to 10%.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, René.
Marcelo Mizrahi
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Marcelo.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
The next question is from Daniele Miranda from Santander. Go ahead, Daniele.
Daniele Miranda
Morning, Marcos, Rafa, and everyone connected from the team. Just a very quick one from my side.
You mentioned consumer lending will continue to be the main growth engine. Has this been driven or will it be driven by new customer acquisition or by deeper penetration and higher loan balances among already existing clients?
Just trying to assess here how much more risk you are taking while expanding consumer exposure, and how defensive you are in this segment.
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Thank you, Daniele. It's going to be both.
We still want to grow personal way, and also, as we were talking about the hyper-personalization, we still have clients that they need more products from us. You will see that we will go in both lines and growing both.
Thank you, Daniele.
Daniele Miranda
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Now we'll take our last question from Federico Galassi.
Federico, please go ahead.
Federico Galassi
Hi, Marcos, Rafa, and IT team. Two or three questions if I may.
The first one is, Rafa, you mentioned that you are thinking in 18 for the Mexican peso at the end of the year. Do you have any sensitivity if the currency continue to appreciate and finish, I don't know, at 17, something like that?
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
Rafa, please go ahead.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
I would say the really hard effect was last year because of the drop on the peso rate. I think we have some sensitivity on that part, but I don't think we are not going to play that game, because it's a short-term basically strength of the peso.
I think we are convinced, and Alejandro is also convinced of that, that by the end of the year, the peso will be in a much more reasonable price around the 18 18 pesos per dollar. No, we are currently don't doing this, because it will be like a follow the rabbit, but the rabbit will be up and down, we better fix on the end term of where the rabbit is going to be, no?
That is around 18
Federico Galassi
pesos. Perfect.
Fair enough. The other question is related with the insurance business, in particular in autocars, with the change in the regulation with the VAT.
Do you are thinking to increase premiums? How do you think toward this year to at least maintain the ROEs of the last years?
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
We were discussing this in the morning and yesterday, and we will absorb part of this increase and also a little bit will pass to the client, no? The competition is huge, it's not only the banks, also the insurance companies.
We think that it's going to be split, part is going to come for the banks and other for the clients, and we will see the result in the next months, no?
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Federico, remember that Banorte has evolved not for a single price for the clients. We do price the insurance based upon, I would say, the quality of the risk of the client.
That will allow us to have, as Marcos mentioned, a much more flexibility instead of just have a fixed price. If you are really a low-risk client, maybe we will absorb everything on that part, and if you are not a low-risk client, maybe you will get the full heat of the VAT.
Federico Galassi
Perfect. The last one, I don't know if you mentioned before, but do you have any news or something to mention about the cap on fees that was mentioned last year?
José Marcos Ramírez Miguel
No, we don't have anything new there.
Federico Galassi
Okay. Perfect.
Thank you so much. Congrats again for the results.
Rafael Victorio Arana de la Garza
Federico, gracias. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you very much for your interest in Banorte. With this, we conclude our call.
Thank you very much.
Already premium?