Prologis Property Mexico, S.A. de C.V.

Prologis Property Mexico, S.A. de C.V.

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Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 22, 2026

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the FIBRA Prologis third quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand.

To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Montserrat Chávez, Head of Investor Relations.

Montserrat, please go ahead.

Montserrat Chávez

Thank you, Alexandra, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call.

Before we begin our prepared remarks, please note that all information disclosed during this call is proprietary, and all rights are reserved. This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.

Forward-looking statements made during this call are based on information available as of today. Our actual results, performance, prospects, or opportunities may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements.

Additionally, during this call, we may refer to non-accounting measure or measures. The company does not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements in the future, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.

As is our practice, we have prepared supplementary materials that we may refer to during this call. We invite you to visit our website at fibraprologis.com and download our earnings materials.

On today's call, we will hear from Jorge Girault, our CEO, and Alexandra Violante, our CFO, who will discuss our strategy, market conditions, and will review results. Also joining us today is Federico Cantú, our Head of Operations.

With that, it is my pleasure to hand the call over to Jorge.

Jorge Girault

Thank you, Montse. Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

FIBRA Prologis delivered solid operating performance this quarter. Period-end occupancy was 96.5%, around 360 basis points above the market.

We believe this reflects the quality of our portfolio and the strength of our operating platform. Market conditions are improving.

Customer demand is strengthening, net absorption is increasing, and construction starts are declining. Together, these trends point to a more balanced market.

The construction pipeline declined 34%, more than we expected. This supports our outlook.

If development remains disciplined, we believe markets will continue to move towards a healthier balance. Leasing activity in our markets reached approximately 9 million square feet.

Including build-to-suit deliveries in Mexico City, net absorption was approximately 12 million square feet, more than twice the first-half average. We expect net absorption to reach around 30 million square feet in 2026.

That would be just below 2023 peak, and about twice pre-pandemic levels. Companies serving the data center sector accounted for approximately 20% of our leasing activity year-to-date, totaling an estimated 6 million square feet.

We will continue to monitor this growing source of demand. E-commerce and logistics also remain potential sources of demand.

Over the past two years, fulfillment networks have expanded more slowly than e-commerce sales, which we believe should create a new need for additional space. On this note, our global customer relationships give us good visibility into customer real estate needs, and helps us support their future growth.

Market vacancy increased 10 basis points this quarter to 7.1%, less than we expected. We anticipated it will remain near this levels, as available space is absorbed, and pending move-outs are completed.

Market rents declined 1.7% this quarter. Our portfolio still has approximately 25% mark-to-market potential, which we expect to capture as leases roll over.

Conditions have changed since the peak years of nearshoring. We will stay flexible and close to our customers, drawing on our global platform, local knowledge, and financial strength.

We continue to see interest in high-quality assets with strong long-term potential. We evaluate each opportunity based on its expected return relative to our cost of capital, and its impact in our balance sheet.

Recent capital market movements have reinforced the importance of maintaining that discipline. We remain focused on sound investments, and on pursuing opportunities that reflect the continued interest in Mexico high-quality assets.

I want to thank our team on the ground for serving our customers, and executing our strategy. Our portfolio, balance sheet, and Prologis' unique global platform position us to respond as market conditions evolve.

We remain focused on creating long-term value for our investors. With that, I'll turn it to Alexandra Violante to review our financial results.

Alexandra Violante

Thank you, Jorge, and good morning, everyone. FIBRA Prologis delivered healthy results.

Our FFO was $97 million, up 8% compared with 2025, or 5.7 U.S. dollar cents per certificate.

AFFO was $76 million, down 2% year-over-year. Turning to our operational results.

We leased nearly 3 million square feet during the quarter. This brings year-to-date leasing to 9 million square feet, or 90% of 2026 expirations.

Period-end occupancy was 96.5%, up 70 basis points from the second quarter, while average occupancy was 95%, and retention 66%. Net effective rent change remained strong at 36%, consistent with expectations.

Same-store cash NOI was approximately 2%, and GAAP around 3%. Rental income increased from strong rent change on rollover and annual bumps, mainly offset by higher bad debt reserves.

These reserves are mainly related to two customers facing financial difficulties. This is an isolated situation involving these tenants that face specific challenges, and ultimately ceased their operations.

We recently resolved nearly 40% of the exposure by releasing the space at rents approximately 50% higher than the previous one, and we are actively working through the remainder, building on our team's track record of successfully resolving similar situations. Moving on to our balance sheet.

With the current interest rates environment, we maintain a sound capital structure with strong debt metrics. We have a loan-to-value of 24%, with 70% of our debt fixed, and an average maturity of six years.

Plus, our liquidity is north of $1 billion. This gives us significant flexibility as we evaluate opportunities in the market.

We will remain prudent and disciplined in deciding where, when, and how to deploy capital, while maintaining the strength of our balance sheet. Now, let me turn to our updated guidance.

We are narrowing our forecast for period-end occupancy to a range of 96.5 to 97.5%. We are revising our same-store cash NOI growth to 7 to 8%, primarily reflecting the impact of higher bad debt reserves.

We are also adjusting the acquisition guidance to $100 million. Finally, we are narrowing our FFO per certificate to range between 24 to 25 U.S.

dollar cents. The rest of the guidance remains unchanged.

In closing, I'd like to thank our team for continuing to deliver solid results and adapting to changing conditions. Our results reflect the strength of our operating platform and disciplined financial management.

We remain focused on operational excellence, maintaining a healthy balance sheet, and executing our long-term strategy. Thank you.

I'll now turn it back to the operator for Q&A. Operator?

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please do limit yourself to one question.

If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again.

We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device.

Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Rodolfo Ramos with Bradesco BBI.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Rodolfo Ramos

Thank you Jorge, Alex, [Fede?] , Montse, for taking my question.

Just a couple from me. 2027 is not a particularly heavy on lease expirations, but as you look at those specific contracts, what kind of rent rollover do you think is achievable next year, and wanted to see what kind of fixed dollar escalators are you including in them?

That's a very quick one to just a second part on the development pipeline. You've been a bit more cautious than peers in the current environment.

When you look at Prologis' development pipeline, what are some of the key industries that have already leased to, in the case of pre-leases, or what industries are you targeting with spec buildings, and can you remind us of the timeline? Thank you.

Jorge Girault

Thank you, Rodolfo. Let me take the second part.

I'll let Fede take the first part of your question. Regarding the development pipeline that Prologis is undertaking, as you've seen at the beginning of the year, we acquired one building leased by e-commerce player in the State of Mexico.

We have seen that all over the place, especially in the consumption markets. While Prologis is the focus, as you can see in the pipeline that we have in the Mexico City area, in Juárez, etc., and you will see eventually some of these acquisitions going forward.

As I said in my opening remarks, e-commerce and logistics have been increasing, and we believe there's going to be additional request for space given the increase in sales. I think in those lines, you will see more developments or acquisitions in 2027 coming down the road.

That would be my take today with what we see in the market. Fede?

Federico Cantú

Thank you. Thank you, Rodolfo, for your question.

This is Federico. As it relates to your first question, as you commented, next year we're on the lighter side in terms of roll.

We expect as far as U.S. dollar escalators, around 3.5% on dollar-denominated leases, and Mexican inflation, INPC indexation on peso-denominated leases.

Rodolfo Ramos

Thank you. For roll over, as far as the level goes, is there anything you have in mind compared to what we've seen so far, perhaps this year?

I know that that's a good proxy or benchmark.

Federico Cantú

We have conversations with our customers, and our teams are tackling a roll in the next year. We already had some leases tied up that expire next year.

We're optimistic, and as you see, it's a mix of manufacturing, logistics customers. No concerns in terms of the roll.

Jorge Girault

Rodolfo, just a quick comment. One of the things that you should take into consideration is that we are very close to our customers.

Federico and his team are very close. As leases come to roll, we anticipate ourselves.

We have very good visibility on that. That's why Federico can give you that answer.

Thank you.

Rodolfo Ramos

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jorel Guilloty with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Jorel Guilloty

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question.

I was wondering if you can provide a bit more detail on the type of clients that led to the bad debt expense that you mentioned earlier, what industry, what region. Also, if you can comment on your retention rates.

They did improve sequentially, was 66% this past quarter, but it's still below the historical average of 83%. I just want to understand if this retention rate that we're seeing recently around the 60s is a one-off or is this a level that we could continue to expect in the near term?

Thank you.

Federico Cantú

Thank you, Jorel, for your question. As it relates to the industries, it's a couple customers in our border markets.

One of them was hit with the tariff situation, and the other is in the auto sector related just to financial difficulties. As Alexandra mentioned in her opening remarks, our teams already resolved 40% of that exposure, and we're working through the rest.

In terms of retention, again, we've had some consolidations in our portfolio as companies optimize their networks. We continue to stay close to our customers and have good expectations for the remainder of the year and into 2027.

Jorel Guilloty

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Francisco Chavez with BBVA. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Francisco Chavez

Hi. Thanks for the call.

It's a follow-up regarding the bad debt that you recognized this quarter. Is the impact of these two tenants fully reflected in your financials, or can we expect further impact in the 4Q?

Thank you.

Alexandra Violante

Hi, Paco. Thank you for your question.

As you mentioned, there's two customers facing financial difficulties. These leases, I would like to mention that they represent around 1 million square feet.

As Fede mentioned, and I mentioned in my remarks, we already resolved approximately 40% during this month, and we're addressing the rest. Regarding your question if fully reflected there for these customers, and just to highlight, we have faced similar pressure back in 2020, and our operating response helped us work through it.

Our teams will work hard to resolve it as any vacancy that we have in our portfolio.

Francisco Chavez

Thank you, Alexandra.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pablo Ricalde with Itaú. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead. Hey,

Pablo Ricalde

hi, good morning, Prologis team. My question is related to the data center leasing activity you mentioned in the opening remarks.

In which regions or cities you are seeing more or most of this demand coming from data centers?

Jorge Girault

Thank you, Pablo, for your question. Regarding data centers, I think we have all over the place.

We have seen some of that activity in Juárez. We have seen part of those trends also in Guadalajara.

If you recall, Guadalajara is quote-unquote the Silicon Valley of Mexico, with many of the IT companies are there. We have a data center there.

IBM is there. There is some relation there, and we saw something in TJ and Monterrey.

Wires, for example, for fiber optics. I think it's in many markets, but if you have to point to two or three of them, I would say Juárez, Tijuana, Guadalajara have been the main drivers from a demand perspective.

Pablo Ricalde

Perfect. Thanks, Jorge.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alejandra Obregón with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Alejandra Obregón

Hi, good morning, FIBRA Prologis team. Thank you for the call.

My question is on your balance sheet. If I look at it on a historical basis, you've been able to maintain a solid balance sheet with probably 20 to 25-ish loan-to-values, and that leaves even more room or more balance sheet capacity, if I can call it like that.

My question is, what will ultimately determine how much capacity you're willing to use? Is it an absolute leverage ceiling?

Is it the metrics that you need to maintain before the credit rating agencies? Is it a spread between your acquisition returns and your cost of capital?

If you can help us better understand what's the amount of leverage that you will be willing or you would be willing to undertake. I'm not talking about probably the average loan-to-value that you want, but stress it out a little bit, like if you were to stress your balance sheet a little bit more, where would you still feel comfortable?

What's kind of like the dry powder that you still have there? Thank you.

Alexandra Violante

Hi, Alejandra. Thank you for your question.

As our internal limit of loan-to-value target is 35%. As you mentioned, we're around 25%, so that gives us a firepower of around $1.3 billion to be active in the market if it's needed or have that flexibility for the opportunities we might face.

Our intention is to maintain our BBB+ rating as long as a sovereign rating allows us. I think this gives you a good idea on how we manage our balance sheet.

We could get to that 35%. We feel comfortable a little bit lower than that because that gives, like I mentioned, that flexibility.

Alejandra Obregón

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of André Mazini with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead. The next question comes from the line of André Mazini with Citigroup.

André, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

We will move on to the next question. The next question comes from the line of David Soto with Cursa Bank.

David, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

David Soto

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one is related to your acquisition guidance.

Could you please share the rational behind the revision? Is it related to a normalization that you are getting to the market, or is it more related that you are looking to have a more prudent approach?

Jorge Girault

Thank you, David. This is Jorge.

The quick answer to your question is timing. Let me explain.

Normally when we guide on acquisitions, we guide looking at Prologis' pipeline. We already did $100 million give or take in the year.

Getting the utilities in has taken longer. In some cases, some permits have delayed our developments, things that we don't control.

Remember that to do an acquisition from Prologis, the property has to be leased and occupied. Some things have taken a little bit longer.

Because of that, we decided to for now keep it at 100. That's the reason why, mainly timing.

David Soto

Perfect. Thanks, Jorge.

Jorge Girault

Anytime.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrian Huerta with J.P. Morgan.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Adrian Huerta

Thank you. Hi, Jorge.

Any comments on disposals for the rest of this year and also the plans for next year? Anything you can share with us on that?

Jorge Girault

Thank you, Adrian. On dispositions side, as you probably know, we started the process.

We went back to the drawing board at the beginning of the year as I said at the beginning of the year. I have to say that it takes some time going through the dispositions.

We have received some bids. Values are in line with our house view as for now.

I expect closings to be in 2027. Again, takes some time.

In some cases, you have to go through antitrust and go through some regulatory process. We have to go through that, if you may.

I think that in 2027 we will start seeing larger volumes. You saw some dispositions this year, around $70 million also, but I think that the bigger volume you will see it in 2027.

Adrian Huerta

Thank you.

Jorge Girault

You bet.

Operator

A reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again.

Also, a reminder to unmute yourself locally from your device. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Enrique Caldu with GBM. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Enrique Cantú

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question.

Could you walk us through the extraordinary non-recoverable expenses this quarter and whether any related costs would carry into the coming quarters?

Alexandra Violante

Hi, thank you, Enrique, for your question. As we have mentioned during the call, it was mainly due to this higher bad debt reserves.

We didn't anticipate this level of bad debts. We have resolved 40% of it, you will still see something during the fourth quarter, but our teams are working to go through the rest of it and have a positive impact in the first quarter.

Enrique Cantú

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andres Aguirre with GBM. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Andres Aguirre

Hi, Prologis team. Thanks for the call.

Just a quick follow-up on leasing spreads. I was wondering if you could provide a bit more color on the difference you're seeing between the original Prologis portfolio and the Terrafina portfolio in terms of leasing spreads.

If you could provide a bit more color going forward, what should we expect? Thank you.

Jorge Girault

Hola, Andres. This is Jorge.

Let me get a first stab at that. I'll let Fede talk about the two portfolios.

Regarding leasing spread, what you see today is around 25% leasing spread, which is an average, weighted average. Leasing spreads obviously depend on the market.

The market rents, we don't control. They will depend on demand and supply.

What you should know is that our DNA is to bring rents at rollover time to market, no? We will take that advantage as you have seen over time.

Regarding the Terrafina and the Prologis portfolio, I'll let Fede comment.

Federico Cantú

Yes. Thank you, Jorge.

Thank you, Andres, for your question. Again, as Jorge mentioned, our teams are very diligent in taking our leases up to market.

When we acquired Terrafina over two years ago, there was probably a little bit more a spread that we've been capturing, harvesting over the last couple of years. I would say overall right now, the combined portfolio is pretty healthy at around 25%.

Of course, any given quarter, given the mix of leases, it may vary. Again, we're very very confident in being able to capture that spread.

Again, right now we see the entire portfolio as one as it is. Again, we're seeing pretty healthy activity across all our markets.

Just another follow-up on the previous question related to the backfill of one of our problematic customers, that lease that we replaced was at 50% spread over market. It's a good example of how our teams are capturing leases at market.

Jorge Girault

Andres, one thing that you should take into consideration is these leasing spreads that we harvest over time, it's just embedded growth that we have. You don't have to put any money into it.

You don't have to have large investment into it. It's something that is in our DNA again, and we keep on harvesting.

It's a very important metric for us. Perfect.

Andres Aguirre

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Elisa Gómez with BTG Pactual. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Elisa Gómez

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

Could you walk us a bit more through the profile of the new leases that you signed this quarter? Are these companies new to Mexico, and which industry are they in?

Do you expect going forward that we'll see, again, new leases accounting a big share of the leasing activity like we saw this quarter? Thank you.

Federico Cantú

Thank you. Thank you, Elisa, for your question.

This is Federico. We had again, over 1 million square feet of new leasing this quarter across most of our markets, and across different groups of industries: manufacturing, logistics.

We're again very encouraged to see our leasing activity. By the way, we had around 1 million square feet of move-outs.

However, 56% were backfilled in the quarter with companies again ranging from retail, data center, electronics, 3PLs. E-commerce certainly is one of the standouts.

We're seeing broad-based demand across our markets, across manufacturing and logistics. Again, we're encouraged by the pipeline in the second half of the year.

As Jorge commented in his opening remarks, it was a significant jump in net absorption, and that momentum continues into this quarter. Given the conversations that we've had, and again we always stay close to our customers, we're very encouraged by the activity and into next year as well.

Elisa Gómez

Cool. Thank you.

Operator

A reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again.

If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Piero Trotta with Citi. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Piero Trotta

Hi, team. Thanks for the call.

Just a question. I would like to understand your view on the CKDs pipeline in the next 12 months.

You have access to the Prologis sponsor, but do you see some opportunity in CKDs in the next 12 months? Do you see that can be a source of acquisition pipeline for '27?

That's it. Thank you very much.

Jorge Girault

Thank you, Piero, for your question. Look, we see everything that's out there in the market, and we analyze everything according to our cost of capital and balance sheet capabilities.

Everything that is out there and is for sale, we look at. That's something that you should know.

Piero Trotta

Thank you.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Alan Macias with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Please go ahead.

Alan Macias

Hi, good morning, and thank you for the call. Just a quick question on expenses.

We saw an increase in non-recoverable operating expenses, and just if you can give more detail on that would be useful. Thank you.

Alexandra Violante

Hi, Alan. Thank you for your question.

As we have mentioned through the call, it was mainly due to higher bad debt reserves. Like I mentioned, this amount we didn't anticipate it, and we have resolved already 40% of it with a new rent of more than 50%.

That's positive, and we're working on the rest. I will also like to highlight, like I already did, we have faced a similar pressure back in 2020, and our teams helped us work through it.

We do not have timing of when we will resolve the remaining, but you can be confident that our teams are pushing on it.

Alan Macias

Just a follow-up on corporate expenses, other corporate expenses also had an increase. What was that related to?

Thank you.

Alexandra Violante

Sure. There was an increase in professional fees that is related to expenses from past deals that didn't take place, and we recognized it this quarter and last quarter.

Alan Macias

Both

Jorge Girault

are one-offs, Alan.

Alan Macias

Yeah. Thank you.

Understood.

Jorge Girault

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jorge Girault for closing remarks.

Jorge Girault

Thank you, Alexandra. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today and for your Q&A.

As I said at the beginning of the call, we feel positive and encouraged by what have seen

Operator

Hi there, please hold. Jorge, we did just lose you briefly.

If you don't mind repeating yourself, thank you so much. Oh,

Jorge Girault

well, thank you very much for joining the call and Q&A. We feel very positive about the end of the year.

We have seen positive signs in the market, and looking forward to close on a strong note on 2026, and see you soon. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for attending.

You may now disconnect.