Happy Forging Limited

Happy Forging Limited

1,761.80
INR
-58.70
(-3.22%)
33.78EPS
45.41P/E
145.30BMarket Cap
Nov 05Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 10, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, you are connected to Happy Forgings Limited conference. Please stay connected, this conference will begin shortly.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Q3 and 9M FY26 Earnings Conference Call of Happy Forgings Limited.

This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on the beliefs, opinions, and expectations of the company as on date of this call. The statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involve risk and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.

As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone.

Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr.

Ashish Garg, Managing Director, Happy Forgings Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Ashish Garg

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the Quarter 3 FY26 earnings call of Happy Forgings Limited.

Along with me, I have Mr. Pankaj Kumar Goyal, our CFO, and Strategic Growth Advisors, our Investor Relations advisors.

I trust everyone had the opportunity to review the Quarter 3 and 9 months FY26 financial results and investor presentations which are now available on the exchanges. I am delighted to share that we continued with a strong growth trajectory in the third quarter and 9 months of fiscal year 2026, delivered a robust operating and financial performance.

In Quarter 3 and 9 months FY26, the revenues continued to scale up and profitability showed a clear improving trend. We have successfully navigated a period marked by softening steel prices, a challenging macro environment, including weak global demand and geopolitical events, while maintaining a positive growth momentum, improving profitability, and further strengthening our balance sheet.

Importantly, during this period, we have invested meaningfully to build capacity and lay the foundation for future growth. We have done so without straining the balance sheet.

This was enabled by our robust business model, efficient working capital management resulting in strong cash generation, allowing us to fund growth initiatives while preserving financial strength and flexibility. For the third quarter, the company delivered an all-time higher performance across revenue from operations, gross profit, EBITDA, and PAT.

We achieved the highest ever EBITDA, PAT margin during the quarter. Profitability growth outpaces the revenue growth, with PAT increasing to 22.3% year-on-year.

This was driven by robust value-add as reflected in higher gross margin and operational efficiencies. For the 9-month period, revenue touched 1,122 crores with a PAT of 218 crores, demonstrating a resilient and a consistent performance given the macro environment.

Importantly, the sequential improvement witnessed in Q3 over Q2 reinforces the growth momentum in the business, and if this trend continues in Quarter 4, it positions us well for a strong close in FY26. On the margins front, I would like to highlight that our EBITDA margins reached a new high of 30.8% in the quarter, and for the 9-month period crossed 30%.

While this represents a meaningful improvement over last year, margins can vary from quarter to quarter as raw material prices, capacity addition, and business mix evolve. Our focus remains on maintaining EBITDA margins with a sustained range between 29% to 31% over the medium term.

Coming to our operational performance, in Q3, we recorded a healthy year-on-year volume growth of approximately 14%, driven by a strong uptick across domestic CV, farm, and industrial segments, as well as the passenger vehicle segment overall contributed meaningfully. Realizations remained broadly stable and range-bound, even as raw material prices softened during this period.

Going forward, as higher value-add segments scale up, we expect realizations to improve. From a geographic perspective, domestic business delivered strong mid-teens year-on-year growth during the quarter, driven by healthy demand across our core segments, specially commercial vehicle, farm equipment.

Direct exports remained subdued during the quarter, reflecting both ongoing weakness in certain end markets and tariff-related uncertainties. In addition, changes in Incoterms for select customers during the period resulted in a reclassification of certain revenues from direct exports to deemed and indirect export categories, which also contributed to the apparent decline in direct exports share.

However, when viewed on a broader and more meaningful basis by combining direct, deemed, and indirect exports, which together account for roughly one-fourth of our finished goods sales, export market-dependent revenues were largely flat on year-on-year basis. Importantly, this combined export-linked revenue pool recorded a modest sequential increase, indicating early signs of stabilization rather than further deterioration.

Following the recent announcements around India-US tariffs and other trade agreements, we are closely tracking developments and await further clarity on the fine prints for these agreements. Directionally, we view these developments are positive for long-term economic growth and industry opportunities.

In parallel, some OEMs in CV and farm equipment segments have marginally revised their outlook for calendar year 2026 compared to the guidance issued in Quarter 3 calendar 2025, with industry growth expectations now indicating stability to a modest low-single-digit growth. Against this backdrop, outlook for export business hence appears more constructive as compared to the previous quarter, which could support a gradual recovery and growth in our existing export-linked business.

Moving to our industry segments highlights for Quarter 3 FY26, our diversified portfolio remains a cornerstone of our strategy. This balanced exposure allows us to effectively de-risk while fully capturing the robust secular growth in the domestic and international markets.

Commercial vehicle contributed 37% to our operating revenue in 9 months '26 period. The segment continues to be the highest contributor during the quarter.

The combination of the GST rate cut, improving affordability, and healthy infrastructure-led demand mainly supported a meaningful pickup in the industry volumes. Also, domestic CV dispatches saw an uptick supported by sustained freight activity.

With improving lead indicators in the domestic market, such as supportive policy measures and sustained infrastructure activity, we are optimistic about the segments to sustain its strong demand visibility and positive momentum, positioning us well for continued growth. However, the broader global backdrop remains soft, with major markets in North America and Europe yet to show meaningful recovery momentum.

Farm equipment contributed 31% to our total operating revenue in 9 months '26. The domestic tractor industry demonstrated growth supported by favorable monsoons and kharif agriculture output.

Industry volumes grew on the back of strong rural demand and improved cash flows. Looking ahead in '27, industry demand is expected to remain stable, supported by normal monsoon assumptions, steady farm incomes, and sustained mechanization trends to agriculture.

As for the outlook released by some OEMs, the European and US farm equipment markets are expected to remain broadly stable or range-bound in calendar year 2026. Industrials contributed 15% to our overall operating revenue in 9 months '26.

The segment delivered a stable performance in the quarter, supported mainly by demand across power generation, renewables such as wind, railways, oil and gas, and digital infrastructure. Overall, the outlook for this segment is positive given the rapid expansion of India's data center ecosystem, solar and grid capacity additions, rail modernization, and maintenance cycles that are likely to continue support order inflows.

Off-highway contributed 12% to our operating revenue. Amid broader category weakness, the domestic off-highway segment saw softer year-on-year basis.

Slower project awards, particularly in roads and highway and other infrastructure segments, along with land acquisition approval-related delays, moderated the pace of project execution. This impacted equipment demand during the period.

Industry conditions in Europe and US remained challenging during this period. Passenger vehicles contributed 5% to our total revenue in 9 months '26.

The passenger vehicle segment continued to perform well and now contributed close to a mid-single-digit share of revenues. We have strong visibility on incremental business in this segment and expect this contribution to scale meaningfully over the next few years.

We increased our machining capacity to 68,000 tonnes, an addition of 9,800 metric tonnes in Quarter 3 FY26. This expansion is in anticipation of the upcoming demand.

Further, we will strengthen our forging capacities by commissioning a new 10,000-tonne press in Quarter 4 FY26 and the 4,000-tonne press in H1 FY27. To improve our cost efficiency and support our ESG commitments, we have signed a long-term lease for 80 acres of land to develop a captive solar power plant.

We anticipated the benefit of this investment to start coming in partly in FY28 and fully thereafter. Furthermore, we are on track with our heavy-component-related capex, which is progressing well as per the schedule.

Looking ahead, we expect domestic demand momentum to continue. As global trade dynamic evolve, we hope that export pressures will also subside, paving the way for a measured turnaround in our international markets.

We have visibility of new and incremental peak annual business of approximately 800 crores expected to commence from FY27 onwards, which will scale up over the next two to three years. This includes incremental revenues from heavy component capex lines.

The addition of this business will further strengthen our diversification efforts. A large part of the upcoming business is linked to industrial and passenger vehicles, with nearly two-thirds oriented towards export markets.

Consequently, the contribution of industrials, PV, and export-dependent segments is expected to increase meaningfully in the overall mix and have a positive impact on the revenue diversification and profitability as well. I'll now invite our CFO, Mr.

Pankaj Kumar Goyal, to share a detailed breakdown of our financial drivers and offer further analytical color on our Quarter 3 and 9 months performance.

Pankaj Kumar Goyal

Thank you. I hope I am audible to all of you.

Good morning, everyone. Let's now dive into the key financial metrics that defined our performance for the third quarter and 9 months period of FY26.

We recorded a revenue from operation of Rs 391 crore for Q3 FY26 and 1,122 crore for 9 months FY26. This represents a YoY expansion of 10.4% and 6.2% for the quarter and 9 months period respectively.

We registered a YoY volume growth of 13.8% in Q3 FY26 and 7.6% for 9 months FY26. Realizations were marginally lower for both Q3 and 9 months, primarily due to changes in product mix and lower scrap prices.

Gross profit reached 230 crore in Q3 and 663 crore for 9 months, reflecting an uptick of 12.2% and 8.5% YoY respectively. This performance anchored healthy gross margins of 58.9% for the quarter and 59.1% for 9 months.

EBITDA clocked in at Rs 120 crore for Q3 and 337 crore for 9 months FY26, making a year-on-year surge of 18.7% and 10.8% respectively. Consequently, EBITDA margin settled at 30.8% and 30.1% respectively as a result of operating leverage.

Profit after tax stood at 79 crore for the quarter and 218 crore for 9 months FY26. This reflects a significant YoY growth of 22.3% for Quarter 3 and 11.8% for 9 months on an adjusted basis, with PAT margins holding firm at 20.2% and 19.4% for Q3 and 9 months respectively.

I would also like to clarify that we have no financial impact from the new labor codes transition as our current provisions and practices are already fully compliant with the updated regulations. Our balance sheet remains a core strength of the organization.

Through focused working capital management, we have maintained stability relative to working capital levels of H1 FY26. This reduced our working capital intensity, combined with our expanding margin profile, has translated into robust cash flow conversions, thereby resulting in a 315 crore in cash flow from operation for the 9-month FY26 period.

Our treasury position has further strengthened, with total liquid assets now exceeding 400 crore. This provides us with a significant buffer and the financial flexibility to fund our growth initiatives from internal accruals.

We continue to invest for the future. Our ongoing capex program is progressing as per schedule, with 300 crore deployed in the first 9 months of the year.

We expected our total capex for FY26 to be in the range of 400 to 500 crore, all of which aimed at augmenting our high-growth capabilities and enhancing long-term value for our stakeholders. With that, we are ready to commence the question-and-answer session.

I will turn it back to the moderator to invite the first question.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

First question is from the line of Preet Pitani from InCred AMC. Please go ahead.

Preet Pitani

Thank you for the opportunity, sir. I only had one question.

Myself is on the line of gross margin. We have seen the improvement YoY on the gross margin despite raw material headwinds.

What has led to such improvement? What do we expect going forward?

Thank you.

Ashish Garg

Thank you. Gross margin improvement trend has improved over the last several years.

It is improving year-on-year. That's largely on account of the product mix changes, which is happening.

Whereas the new product introduction is at better realization rate, which is kind of improving the overall average for the realizations. This is despite the falling raw material prices that has happened in the last 1.5, 2 years.

Going forward, we expect this momentum to continue as well on a medium-term basis as our export share will improve and also the industrial business will improve going forward.

Preet Pitani

Just to follow up on that. On the realization, if I can see, that this quarter it was 3% down year-on-year, and despite, we have seen gross margin improvement.

If you could just highlight that.

Ashish Garg

There's a fall in steel prices as well. You're seeing the total realization base, but if you see the raw material price, fall was even more than that.

Secondly, it's because of the changes in the product mix.

Preet Pitani

Can you just name what are the top raw materials which have been used along with the percentage of the contribution to the overall raw material base?

Ashish Garg

We largely consume alloy steel and alloy steel grades like 1541, 20MnCr5, or chrome-moly grades and carbon steel grades, largely used for automotive requirements and wind requirements. This is the base that we consume.

We also consume some bit of stainless steel in our plant.

Preet Pitani

Thank you, sir. I'll join back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mihir Vora from Equirus.

Please go ahead.

Mihir Vora

Thank you for taking my question. Sir, just one clarification on capex, that what would be the 9-month capex that we have already incurred, and some projections for the FY27 capex number as well?

Ashish Garg

Sure. We have already completed a capex of almost 300 crores in 9-month this financial year, and the expectation for next year is close to 400 crores, excluding solar project.

Including solar, it will be close to 480 crores.

Mihir Vora

Okay. All right.

Okay. The next one is, sir, basically we saw a good, decent growth in the industrial segment here, which you mentioned in opening remarks was driven by the domestic part of it.

Here, can you throw some more light on what kind of components are we basically giving into the railway segment, which you mentioned here, and some more light on the components in the industrial part?

Ashish Garg

Railway is a very small segment for us. We produce piston pins for loco application, where we are import substitutes.

Within industrial, we supply crankshafts as well as wind pinions. The large crankshaft goes for heavy genset applications, and the wind pinions are for wind gearboxes.

Right.

Mihir Vora

Okay. Okay.

Sir, lastly, on the order book front, which you have mentioned around 800-odd crores, which also includes the heavy engineering part. Here, are we seeing some incremental orders?

Previously, I think we had mentioned a confirmed order of 100-odd crores. Do we see any more confirmations here in the heavy engineering segment?

Ashish Garg

On the heavy engineering, particularly on the large crankshaft family, we have close to 180 crores of signed orders right now. Going forward, we are waiting for the capacity to come in place.

We are already in discussions with several OEMs for this project. As the timelines are very close by, I think the real marketing will start around June, July because we expect equipments to reach in the plant, and that'll be the time when we can actually demonstrate our capabilities once the infrastructure is built.

Mihir Vora

When do we expect that plant to be utilized at a fair level? Will it be in FY28 or '29?

Ashish Garg

Some bit of utilization will start coming from FY28, largely from FY29.

Mihir Vora

Okay. Okay.

That's all from my side. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Joseph George from IIFL.

Please go ahead.

Joseph George

Hi. Thank you.

I have two questions. One is, when I look at your capacity numbers that were given in the PPT, now your forging stands at 127k and machining stands at 68k.

Could you give a sense of where these numbers will end at the end of FY27?

Ashish Garg

Yes. FY27, we'll be looking at forging capacity of 150,000 tonnes, and machining capacity is around 82,000 tonnes.

Joseph George

Okay. This, obviously, doesn't include much of the heavy engine's capacity or heavy components capacity.

Ashish Garg

No, no. That will probably come in FY28.

Joseph George

That'll come in FY28. When that comes in, we'll end closer to 200,000 in terms of forgings?

Ashish Garg

Around 180,000 on the forging side, and around 90,000 in terms of the machining capacity.

Joseph George

Understood. Thanks.

The second question that I had was on gross margins. You mentioned that your initial comment had reference to raw materials, etc.

What I want to understand is, isn't the price of steel a complete pass-through under your contracts with your customers? That is one.

Second is, we've seen currency moving all over the place, be it EUR/INR, USD/INR. What are the implications of these currency movements for your profitability?

Ashish Garg

Steel is a pass-through in most of the cases. You can say almost 85% of the business, steel is a pass-through.

There is a lag of 1 month, and in exports there is a lag of 1 quarter. Scrap is not pass-through.

Whatever scrap gain or loss comes, that goes directly in the EBITDA. If you see last year till December, we have seen scrap prices falling.

Going forward, we see scrap prices improving as well. The new contracts probably we get signed now for the scrap prices will be at a better realizations, better prices, as it has started to move upwards.

On the steel side, it is a pass-through for us. On the domestic side, it is passed with a 1-month lag, and we have sufficient inventories to actually cover that.

With regard to forex, forex in some of the contracts is a pass-through mechanism, and in some of the contracts is a long-term agreement where we hedge our currency on a long-term basis. We work on both type of contracts.

Largely on the open contract, we follow a hedged policy right now. There's no significant impact.

Joseph George

Okay. How long are your hedges, typically?

Duration?

Ashish Garg

It is typically for 1, 1.5 years looking forward.

Joseph George

Understood. Understood.

Thank you. That's all I had.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sahil Sanghvi from Monarch Networth Capital.

Please go ahead.

Sahil Sanghvi

Yeah. Good morning, sir, and good to see the numbers improving.

Congratulations on that. Also, on holding a very strong margin number.

I have two set of questions. One, if you can give me the split of what was the growth in the domestic market, and the growth or degrowth in the export market.

If you can split that in whatever manner possible, revenue, volumes.

Ashish Garg

Sure. Roughly 55% of our revenue comes from domestic CV and domestic farm business.

Where in terms of value, we have grown by almost 22%, you can say on an average in terms of value. In terms of volume, it's slightly better.

Sahil Sanghvi

22%, right?

Ashish Garg

Yes. On the domestic CV and farm, which is around 55%, 57% of our revenues.

Right. Whereas on the off-highway side, we have witnessed a degrowth both domestic as well as international, and we have one large customer where we have seen this actually dipping.

On the CV export side, we have seen a weakness where there's a degrowth to the level of almost 10%, 12%, both in Europe as well as in US market. The degrowth is more on the US business on the CV side.

On the farm export, it's very small percentage. It's a new vertical where we have seen growth.

On the PV side, we have seen on the domestic as well as export side a growth of almost 37% year-on-year. That is something which is ongoing.

Largely on the degrowth side, it's off-highway business, where we have seen a degrowth, and the CV export business, where we have seen this degrowth coming in.

Sahil Sanghvi

Right, sir. This is very elaborate.

My second question is to understand what happens to the new orders next year, especially on the export front, if the demand remains subdued. We have a very strong new order book as such, but what kind of visibility do we have of these orders getting converted at the right time?

Anything you can explain on that?

Ashish Garg

On the export side, we have largely three programs on and largely for US, which is for the industrial sector for gensets, which we have already started ramping up and we have a visibility for the entire year. Thanks to the tariff situation that the numbers are very clear now.

On the EV business, we are already ramping up, already started the ramp-up in December. Started from December on the EV export business, which is indirect exports to North America.

The third large order that we have is for the PV sector export. Over there as well, the visibility is there that we have to build stocks in US warehouses in September.

We'll start ramping up from May, June onwards on that business as well. That is not related to CV, that's a PV program where volumes are established and not much of a variation is seen as of now in terms of volumes for that.

That's the visibility we have on all these three projects. We expect export percentage to improve meaningfully from second quarter of next financial year.

Sahil Sanghvi

Got it, sir. Got it.

Very helpful. Thank you, sir, and all the very best.

Ashish Garg

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aakash from Nvama FM.

Please go ahead.

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question.

Just wanted to understand, from a very quarter-on-quarter perspective, I think we have seen our realizations dip by almost 5%. Just wanted to understand, and due to which we have also seen a kind of gross margins dipping on a sequential basis.

Just wanted to understand, which segment is a margin driver for us, or which segment has basically fallen off due to which we have taken a hit on our margins? Is what I wanted to understand.

Ashish Garg

I'm just not clear with your question. Can you just repeat once again?

Can you just come once again?

Sure. Sir, we have seen our realizations dip by almost 5% on a sequential basis.

I don't think steel prices have fallen that much on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Yeah.

What I wanted to understand, which segment is basically hitting us in terms of gross margins and realizations?

Ashish Garg

Basically, it has not gone down. You can say that because of the product mix changes, we are seeing this, largely on account of increased sales on the forged products to the tune of almost 1.5%, 2%.

We are seeing this. On the other side, again, there the cost is also less because of more of forged products sale.

That has also resulted in improvement in margin, and that has happened because of the product mix. Even though there is a realization change is there, but if you look at the cost, sequentially cost has also gone down.

That's what I want to understand. On the product mix part, basically, we have a higher set of realizations and margins in which segment?

Is it industrial, CV? That basically is

Ashish Garg

Industrial is an industrial export business, which has picked up, which is largely very heavy components that we are exporting, which are largely on a forged nature of products, where the realization is not similar to crankshafts, is less than that. Over there, there is an increase.

Yes, relatively, the cost is not the same. Sequentially, if you see, there is cost increment has not happened, but even despite of that, there is an improvement in overall margins.

Understood. Sir, I think to an earlier participant question, you explained what the volume growth across all segments except for industrial.

On a YoY basis, industrials have seen how much volume growth?

Ashish Garg

Just a sec. Round volume growth on industrial is around 2%.

Understood. My last question would be for FY27.

I think we are installing a 10,000-tonne forging press line this quarter. Would like to understand for which components, which segment are we installing that?

Basically, what new programs are in place or new orders will start for us incrementally in FY27, and for which segments? That's it.

Ashish Garg

We have already started ramping up on some of the industrial businesses on this line, and this will contribute on the industrial as well as on the CV side. We've started ramping up from our 8,000-tonne press line, and we expect to reach peak capacity utilization on 8,000-tonne very soon.

That is the reason this 10,000-tonne press line was planned. The incremental volumes on the industrial side as well as on the CV side that we are looking from some of our customers on the domestic business will clearly come out of this press line.

Understood. Thank you.

I'll come back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Agrawal from JM Financial.

Please go ahead.

Nitin Agrawal

Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on a great set of numbers. I just wanted to have your thoughts about the recent deal with the US.

Some of the components fall under 232 sections, where are we? What kind of a duty are we expecting on our products exported to the US market?

I know a lot of clarity is required on this, but wanted to know your sense. Will it be 0 under 232 section or 18% kind of a duty?

Ashish Garg

It is still not clear. See, in most of the cases, the duty is paid by our customers.

We have not kept it in our scope. It also depends how they are importing it, and how they're getting it cleared prior to this situation.

Because they cannot change that terms if they are importing under a certain clause. Different customers are importing and getting it cleared in a different manner.

It's very difficult to say. Yes, there are definitely ways and means to get it cleared in an 18% as well.

We are aware that not many are doing that right now. We still have to see that there will be more clarity coming in on this, I think, in next 1 month's time.

It's not in our scope.

Nitin Agrawal

Okay. Just one more question on that as well.

If we are coming to 18% duty, do we get in competitive advantage to companies which are based out of China? Do we get additional business from US?

Any sense on that?

Ashish Garg

You are right. India will be at a advantageous position if you compare with China as well as Brazil, because a lot of forge and machine components of this size are actually coming out of Brazil in the US markets.

Brazil today is at 50%, and so is China. India will get the benefit of this.

On one of the industrial projects, which the supply chain is in China, we will be seeing business increasing in this part.

Nitin Agrawal

Okay. That's really helpful.

That's it from my side. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone.

The next question is from the line of Aniket Mhatre from Motilal Oswal Securities. Please go ahead.

Aniket Mhatre

Hi, sir. Good morning.

Thank you for the opportunity. Just quickly, you had indicated incremental order wins of 8 billion.

By when do you expect to reach this number?

Ashish Garg

Good morning, Aniket. Almost 80% of the business, 80%-85% of the business is to be delivered in the next 2 years, and accordingly, the ramp-up and the capacities are planned for those businesses.

Regarding the higher horsepower, which is around 180 crores out of this 800 crores, some bit of it will come in FY28, and balance will go in '29. Largely, you can say around 620 crores of the business is across the other range of sectors which will start ramping up and start executing these numbers in next 18 to 20 months.

Aniket Mhatre

By FY28, we should expect 80%-85% of this 8 billion to be executed?

Ashish Garg

Yes.

Aniket Mhatre

Understood. Got it.

The other question I had, sir, was, again, from a margins perspective, basically, you had indicated that from Q2 of FY27, exports will start ramping up, right? As a general rule of thumb, we understand exports will be higher margin.

Is it fair to assume that margins can continue to gradually inch up as our mix improves in the coming years?

Ashish Garg

Aniket, as we are already at a very strong range of numbers, definitely, some improvements will come. You can say that we'll be range-bound 28% to 32%, and also on the realization bit.

As we will start exporting, yes, some improvements will happen over there as well. Scrap prices also we are seeing improvement, which will also drive some improvements over there.

Thirdly, with regard to the solar project, which is coming up, we expect that to also improve our power cost starting from third quarter, because it will roughly generate around power almost 25 to 30 crores per annum.

Aniket Mhatre

Sir, the solar project itself, I guess, should be about a 50 basis points improvement, if I'm not mistaken? Aniket, can you repeat?

Ashish Garg

You were not clear.

Aniket Mhatre

No, sir. I was asking about the solar project.

What kind of benefit can we expect from that in terms of our margins once it's fully operational?

Ashish Garg

We expect to reduce our power cost by 25 to 30 crores per annum. Which is a substantial cost reduction that will be seen on our power bill on annualized basis.

Aniket Mhatre

Understood. How are steel prices, we are hearing steel prices are again inching up.

Are we seeing that in our grade of steel that we use for our raw materials as well?

Ashish Garg

The alloy steel market, actually, the settlement happens with a lag. Sometimes the settlement happens with a retrospective date.

Large OEMs like Tata Motors actually decide on this alloy steel pricing. It is not like the daily price movement that happened.

On the daily price movement levels on the ingots and also on the TMT rates, it is already clear on the charts that the steel prices have started moving up, also on the scrap prices. We can say that, yes, the settlement that will happen will also drive the alloy steel prices.

As of now, it is not settled. When the settlement happens, it could be retrospective, that happens from 1st of Jan.

Yes, definitely it looks like that the cycle is now started even on the commodity side, which will probably be there for next 12 to 15 months.

Aniket Mhatre

Sir, what is the kind of increase we are seeing for our grade of products firstly?

Ashish Garg

Aniket, it is still not settled. It could be in a range of 3 to 4 rupees a kg.

It all depends on the primary steel producers and Tata Motors to settle it, because once it is settled, it is settled for at least 1 or 2 quarters because the changes will not happen in between. Roughly, you can say 3 to 4 rupees is expected to go up.

That can happen from 1st of April, or some bit of it can pass on from 1st of Jan, that's not clear.

Aniket Mhatre

Understood. Just my final question on exports.

Just correct me if I'm wrong. About 50% of our exports mix comes from CVs, right?

Roughly, just about 1% from farm equipment. Could you help us understand what is the mix for industrial exports and OHV exports?

PV exports,

Ashish Garg

sorry. Yes, yes.

If I'll combine direct and indirect, 3% is off-highway exports, 8% is industrial exports, and 4% is farm equipment exports.

Aniket Mhatre

PVs? CV is around 10% to 12%.

Sorry, the passenger vehicles?

Ashish Garg

Passenger right now is very small. We've just started from December onwards.

It is just 1% right now. We expect this percentage to improve going forward.

Aniket Mhatre

Got it, sir. That's it from my side.

Thank you and all the very best. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one.

The next question is from the line of Vijay Pandey from Nuvama. Please go ahead.

Vijay Pandey

Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question, and congratulations for a good set of numbers.

A couple of questions. I just wanted to understand if you can tell us that order pipeline of 800 crores.

What will be the bifurcation in terms of industrial, commercial vehicle, off-highway, and passenger vehicle?

Ashish Garg

Yes, just give me a minute. It is roughly around 24% coming from passenger vehicle, 27% coming from commercial vehicle, 44% from industrials, and 4% from farm equipment.

Vijay Pandey

Okay. Okay.

Sir, recently the Volvo in the conference call on the earnings release, they have increased the guidance for calendar year '26. Just want to understand how do you see the outlook?

Are you seeing some improvement in Europe and US market on the CV side? Because some of the OEMs are increasing the guidance, especially for Europe.

Ashish Garg

On the guidance side, when we have reviewed, there's a slight improvement what they are showing. Europe heavy-duty, we are seeing close to 10%.

10,000

Pankaj Kumar Goyal

units.

Ashish Garg

Roughly around 10,000, yes. Roughly around 5% forecast increases there for Europe for CV for next year, for this year, sorry, this calendar year.

Vijay Pandey

Any improvement on the North American Are we seeing that in our orders also or our sales also, like

Ashish Garg

See, sir, there we maintain min-max levels for European OEMs, and we still have to see that movements coming in because there will be inventory which we are kind of reducing because of last year. Once we see that, uptick will be seen.

Right now, on the CV side, till the numbers that we have till June with us reflects slight improvement, but not much of an improvement we are seeing over there. Definitely, yes, over last year, we see some improvement on those numbers as well.

On off-highway side and industrial side, we are seeing some improvements. We have the forecast for the entire year, which definitely shows a better number.

Vijay Pandey

Thank you. That's pretty helpful.

Sir, on the new capex, so that plant that will become operational in FY28. What will be our forging and machining capacity for that?

Ashish Garg

Yes, give me a moment. Forging capacity will improve from 150,000 tonnes to 180,000 tonnes, roughly increment of 30,000 tonnes in terms of the forging capacity.

In phase one, as there are two large machining lines planned, for FY28, there is first machining line will come, which will add additional 5,000 tonnes of machining capacity. FY29, there is another machining capacity which is planned.

Roughly 10,000 tonnes of machining capacities will also increase by FY28 and '29.

Vijay Pandey

Combined, or 10,000 each?

Ashish Garg

No, sorry. 5,000 tonnes each, because these are particularly for large, high-horsepower crankshaft.

We also plan to sell semi-machined products or other machined products which are not in crankshaft applications, especially on the wind side, which are in discussions. Relatively, the capex for those programs will not be same.

It will be much lesser. The machining capex will coming at lesser price.

Vijay Pandey

Sure. Thank you, sir.

Thanks a lot, and all the best for upcoming quarters. Thank you.

Ashish Garg

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one.

The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from Pantomath Financial Services. Please go ahead.

Mitul Shah

Sir, thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations for a very strong performance, particularly record high margins in this tough business environment.

Sir, I have two questions. First one is on US side, considering of course, it's too early, but last few days this revised duty structure, are you getting any sense or any initial discussion with a very high level of inquiries or very strong traction?

Ashish Garg

Mitul, a lot of the inquiry flow was already there, but yes, the decision-making was not happening. The last 6, 8 months, everything was stuck.

Particularly on the farm side, where they are seeing relative weakness, and the idea was to cut cost for the North American OEMs. Over there, we have started our discussions.

Again, on the PV side, for our existing customer base, where we already have programs, we are in discussions for southern and other activities also. Definitely, interactions have started now, and we are hopeful that the conversion of business will also happen in this year.

Could be much faster.

Mitul Shah

Assuming that latest revised duty structure remains there, and considering all our peers are sizable in terms of the US contribution, where do you see our US revenue 2 or 3 years down the line as a percentage of overall business?

Ashish Garg

Mitul, right now, we are around 7% to 8% on direct and indirect business to US. This will definitely inch up to 15% to 16% going forward.

The meaningful increase will come from PV programs that we already have and for which we are planned to ramp up very soon, and also on the industrial side, which will come at a medium-term basis.

Mitul Shah

Sir, actually, CV cycle seems to be bottoming out in globally now after almost 1.5, 2 years slowdown. Don't you think CV would be bigger trigger compared to PVs or farm?

Ashish Garg

These are completely based on the new project wins and the new orders which we have. On the CV side, we don't have much of a business in North America right now, and we still have to see.

Right now, on the CV side, there are excess inventories which are in place, the flow of new businesses on the CV side is very less. Post this correction, probably we'll have to see because definitely there'll be shift from China, and we can see more opportunity on the CV side as well.

Mitul Shah

Sir, lastly, one clarification on this solar project. As you said, next year Q3 it will become operational.

When can we expect fully operational, that 25, 30 CR benefit on annualized basis? Would that be from Q3, Q4 next year or it will take another year or so?

Ashish Garg

No, once the facility is started, Mitul, we can reach the ideal generation levels within 10, 15 days. Just that October to February or mid-Jan period is a winter period in North India, where generation is relatively lesser.

Yes, you can say that we can start producing peak units from mid-February onwards on the plant. It'll kind of peak out, because summer months will definitely have higher units.

Yes, once the plant is operational, then within 10, 15 days we can reach up to the optimum generation capacity. Yes, sir, and this is This is the entire is for captive use.

Mitul Shah

Yeah. Related to that, in FY28 or '29, this solar would be how much portion of the overall contribution of power requirement?

Ashish Garg

In FY28, because FY28 we expect the entire utilization for this to come, and

Mitul Shah

Hello? Hello?

Operator

Management, am I audible?

Ashish Garg

Yes, Mark.

Operator

Sir, sorry for the inconvenience caused. Hello.

Mitul Shah

Mark, what happened?

Operator

The team is looking into it, ma'am. They will give you a clear response on what exactly happened.

What I'll do is I'll just wait for a couple of minutes. The participants are yet joining into this call.

Okay. Vikas, should we just give closing remark and say that there was some technical issue and we can take questions offline?

Ashish Garg

Yes, I think that's what we will do. It's already 11:00.

I think most of the participants have already left. Let's announce for the closure and if they want to send them

A closing remark and close it. I think we'll reach out separately to people, then.

Ashish Garg

Yes,

Operator

yes. I'll just give the handover to you, sir, and then you can just give your closing remarks.

To Mr. Ashish.

Yes.

Ashish Garg

Yes, yes. Yes.

Operator

As there are no more further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashish Garg for the closing comments.

Ashish Garg

Thank you, and sorry, participants, for the technical issues. To conclude, our performance through Quarter 3 and 9 months of FY26 reinforces the strength of our core fundamentals and our growth strategy.

In a dynamic landscape, our focus remains on leveraging advanced engineering capabilities and operating scale to deliver consistent outcomes. Looking ahead, continued investments in capacity and deeper customer integration will drive sustained long-term value creation.

We thank you for the continued trust in Happy Forgings Limited. It's a privilege to have you to join us for an insightful discussion.

We believe to have addressed your queries satisfactorily. However, we welcome any further engagement through our IR team.

Should you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to SGA, our Investor Relations partners. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of Happy Forgings Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.