India Cements Ltd.

India Cements Ltd.

315.30
INR
-16.70
(-5.03%)
106.70BMarket Cap
Jan 28Next Earn

Q1 FY2027 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 20, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the UltraTech Cement Limited Q1 FY27 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing * then 0 on your touch-tone phone. I now hand the conference over to our CFO, Mr.

Atul Daga. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Atul Daga

Thank you, Leo. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and a very warm welcome to this earnings call.

The one big theme for us quarter after quarter is demand. If the demand is good, everything falls in line, and I'm delighted to report that the first quarter of fiscal '27 has reaffirmed that conviction emphatically.

The quarter began under the shadows of West Asia conflict, ended with a de-escalation, and now we know where we are. Situation is still fluid.

With a double-digit volume growth and a demand pipeline across infrastructure, housing, and urban real estate is as rich as it can be. UltraTech has kicked off fiscal '27 with a very strong capacity base ready to serve the country, and we intend to grow like a challenger and not an incumbent.

India's macroeconomic engines continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Even as global energy market endured one of the most disruptive supply cycles, India's domestic consumption and investment flywheel kept turning.

The Indian government is managing and planning its strategies, supporting the industry at large in the country. Benchmark lending rates have remained attractive, improving housing affordability and lowering the cost of capital for infrastructure developers like us.

There are near-term data points we watch very candidly: core sector growth slowing down in the month of May, lower coal and refinery output, and aggregate state capex in April-May growing a modest 2% year-on-year. These are, I believe, timing effect and not any change in trends.

To give you a perspective of what is being announced and executed across the country, because that is tomorrow's cement demand, the first and foremost, if I were to call out, Maharashtra is planning a core ₹20,000 crore greenfield shipbuilding cluster anchored around Mazagon Dock. Odisha has announced a deep-sea port at a place called Ganjam, a shipbuilding cluster at Paradip with investment of over ₹50,000 crores.

Tamil Nadu has signed ₹18,000 crores MoU for data centers and shipbuilding projects. Ports, shipyards, data centers are among the most cement-intensive asset classes in the economy.

The cabinet has approved ₹20,000 crore plus Ahmedabad-Dholera semi-high speed rail corridor. Metro programs continue to expand across Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Mumbai, Pune, and Uttar Pradesh.

There is additional ₹30,000 crore infusion into NIIF with private capital across roads, ports, and urban infrastructure. India's capex revival is also being propelled by power and data centers, both concrete-hungry sectors.

Housing and urban real estate, roughly 55 to 60% of India's cement consumption, has a very strong start to calendar '26. Mumbai, the heart of construction activity in India, property registrations grew about 6%.

Across India's top eight cities, the quarter one 2026 saw a very big growth in the number of units sold as per the data available from registry records. Prices have remained strong for the real estate market, which means it's a structurally mature, end-user driven market, where the absorption is keeping pace with supply.

Bangalore stood out on the strength of GCC and technology sector employment. Redevelopment space is equally significant for cement industry.

Mumbai's Slum Rehabilitation Authority is set to redevelop about 850 acres of land. Developers are still land banking aggressively.

Private sector real estate companies continue to acquire land parcels in various cities across the country. Commercial real estate is not getting left behind.

India's Grade A office market opened up with a very strong first quarter, I understand. Net net, premium housing, redevelopment, office towers, hotels, this is urban India building upwards and outwards simultaneously, and every square foot of it is built on cement.

That gives us the confidence for cement demand growth. Let me now turn to our own scorecard.

Q1 was the highest ever first quarter performance for UltraTech across volumes, revenues, EBITDA, and profit. In volumes, you've seen our presentation, we grew about 13.1% in volume terms for domestic markets.

Capacity utilization was stronger at 81% as compared to 76%, EBITDA of ₹5,146 crores, and PAT of ₹2,604 crores, which was up 17.2% over the last year same period. Interestingly and very proud to tell you, we have converted the Kesoram and India Cements brands to 100% UltraTech.

They were operating in B or C category space. We did not vacate that space.

Post brand conversion, the true performance of UltraTech is visible. In fact, if you look at the brand growth, the brand has grown 21% over the same period last year.

Our team has been successful in converting the customers who were buying a B or C category brand of cement into an A category brand of cement, willing to pay a price premium. Our domestic grey cement volumes growth of 13.1%, I believe, will be well ahead of industry's growth, translating directly into market share gains.

Capacity utilization of 81% in a seasonally transitioning quarter on an enlarged 200 million-ton base speaks to the depth of our demand pipeline. This is the most important feature of UltraTech: the power of our brand.

Revenues grew 16%, EBITDA rose 12%, and ever highest ₹5,000 crore plus EBITDA for April-June quarter, profits rose about 17%. Operating EBITDA per ton has been steady above ₹1,200 this quarter as well.

I want you to appreciate the stability that it represents. We have absorbed and are absorbing the sharpest imported fuel cost shock in recent memory during the quarter on a volume base enlarged by acquired assets that are still ramping up to system profitability.

We held per-ton earnings essentially flat while growing absolute EBITDA 12%. That is cost discipline and operating leverage working exactly as designed.

We hope that fuel prices will normalize in the near future. The acquired assets' improvement capex-led cash flows through the P&L over fiscal '27 and '28, which will result in the per-ton EBITDA trajectory only moving in one way, in a sustainable direction, upwards.

The discussion will not be complete if we don't talk about prices. Cement prices have been constructive during the last quarter, the quarter in the report.

Our all-India exit prices improved through June even as the monsoon now sets in. East and South led price improvements, Central and West were steady, and North was, more or less, a consistent performer.

Industry expects prices to hold broadly steady through the monsoon quarter due to the impact of increase in costs, which frankly is a constructive outcome for this time of year. With cost escalations of the past two quarters still to be fully passed through and demand momentum of the kind we are witnessing, we see a supportive price environment as a busy season approaches.

Our premiumization engine and blended cement in the trade mix continues to do quite an compounding work on blended realizations regardless of headline price movements. This is why our retail focus matters so deeply to us.

The retail market is built around the individual customer, IHB, the person who decides what their house will be built with. For that customer, a home is a once-in-a-lifetime investment representing a large part of their life's wealth.

Hence, I believe cement is not just a commodity purchase. The customer does not shop for the cheapest bag; they reach for the brand they trust, the quality they can stake their family's future on.

That is the premium, and that is why it endures. As India urbanizes, last data I have is about 35% of India is urban, we will reach about 39% by 2030.

This compares to countries like Indonesia which are already 59% urbanized. There is a long way to go for construction, development, and urbanization.

We should quickly touch upon the West Asia crisis. Q1 '27 opened with the most disruptive situation.

The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. At least I did not know what Strait of Hormuz was before the war.

Crude crossed $100, and our coal cost hit the roof. Things are still uncertain, but we are focused on achieving our targets.

Through the crisis, our structural buffers did their job pretty well. Structural buffers what I mean is our green power of about 1,897 megawatts met about 47% of our total power requirements at the end of this quarter.

For the quarter, it was a lower number, but we have exited the quarter with 47% of our power being met by renewable sources, which are cheaper also. We continue to ramp up our AFR substitution, and cement lead distance for this quarter has come down to 360 kilometers.

We absorb the shock better than any peer, and we will harvest the relief faster than any peer. Permit me briefly to be as slightly immodest because the data that I want to talk about clearly shows UltraTech's power.

UltraTech's volume and profitability trajectory over the past few quarters has consistently outpaced the industry. June 2022 quarter, UltraTech grew 17.7% in volume terms, EBITDA of ₹1,230, whereas rest of the industry, cement industry, grew about 15.5% and ₹800 EBITDA per ton.

The numbers continued like this: June '23, 20% volume growth and 15.4% volume growth for rest of the industry, our EBITDA was higher by 25%. June '24, 6.5% volume growth and rest of the industry degrew, our EBITDA was 26% higher.

June '25 and September '25, we had a bit of a shock in our volumes where we degrew, but we came back with a bang. December '25 quarter, we grew 15%, industry growing less than half our growth.

March '26, we grew 9%, industry growing again less than half our growth. June '26, we have grown 13%.

Wait for the results to come out for rest of the industry, and we'll know where the market share gains are. Capex is something which is at the heart of our growth story.

Fiscal '26, we completed the year with about ₹9,500 crores deployed on the capex program. This journey will continue in April '26, or in this quarter, around 12 million tons of new capacity has got commissioned in the country out of which 8.7 million tons is by UltraTech: Shahjahanpur 2.7, Visakhapatnam, Patratu, which is Jharkhand, taking our domestic capacity to 200.1 million tons and total capacity to 205.5 million tons.

Projects under execution for capacity growth are backed by a capex of about ₹17,000 crores in the next 2, 2.5 years, will take our consolidated capacity beyond 242 million tons, with grey cement capacity to reach 212.7 million tons by the end of fiscal '27, and further balance to be completed in the next year. Every ton of committed expansion at UltraTech is fully backed by secured limestone.

There is no raw material constraint anywhere on this growth trajectory. Alongside capacity, we continue to invest in structural cost advantages: green power, which now stands at 1,897 megawatts, close to 2 gigawatts of renewable green power.

Out of this, 71 megawatts was of renewables and 19 megawatts of WHRS was commissioned this quarter. We believe we will reach anywhere between 2.5 to 3 gigawatts very shortly.

All these growth, capexes, the cost improvement initiatives are all being funded with internal accruals. We had started the year with a net debt EBITDA of 0.94x and the quarter we have ended with 0.87x net debt to EBITDA.

Our belief is, and we are confident, that this year also we'll end the net debt EBITDA below 1x. The call will not be complete if I don't speak about India Cements.

What a turnaround story it has been for us. There has been small murmur around the revenue numbers, let me clarify: whilst the printed number speaks about ₹1,013 crores of revenues as compared to ₹1,021 crores of revenue same period last year, but there is an accounting adjustment because if you look at net of freight cost, since we have started reporting ex-factory sales from Q1 '27, knocking off the freight cost, the revenues were ₹993 crores as compared to ₹821 crores on a like-for-like basis, which is a 21% growth in revenues backed by a 19% growth in their volumes.

This is a clearest illustration of a principle this management, UltraTech's management, holds sacred: we deliver what we commit. When we acquired ICL, we told you it was a turnaround waiting to be unlocked: sound assets in strong markets, held back only by years of underinvestment and subscale operating discipline.

One year in, that turnaround is no longer a promise on the slide. It is a trajectory you can read in the numbers.

The improvement has been sequential and unbroken. India Cements' EBITDA per ton has climbed from roughly ₹386 per ton in Q2 '26 to ₹400, to ₹509, and ₹603 this quarter, gain which is quarter after quarter exactly as we said it would be.

Every lever behind that number is one we own. Brand migration to UltraTech is 100% complete.

Premium and trade volumes are rising. Cost improvement capex of about ₹2,000 crores is being deployed into waste heat recovery, preheater upgradation, cooler upgradation, etc., and a step change in their green power trajectory from around 3% of their power requirements to about 86% of their power requirements by the end of fiscal '28.

You should also notice the rapid improvement in conversion ratio for India Cements. Today we are already at 1.5x conversion ratio for India Cements production also.

Q2 fiscal '27 may look optically softer as the seasonal monsoon slowdown and the cost effects of West Asia disruption weigh on the quarter. I would like you to look through that noise.

The direction of travel is unmistakable, and the destination is unchanged. An EBITDA of ₹1,000 per ton for India Cements remains very much in sight, with the full benefit of the capex program flowing through the P&L from Q4 fiscal '28.

Cables and wires, the project is on schedule, on budget. We had approved an investment program of ₹1,800 crores.

Till the last quarter, ₹888 crores has been spent or committed. Channel partners onboarding is rapidly moving at a frantic pace.

Facility setup is complete. Trial runs have commenced.

Key regulatory approvals are in place. Leadership team is on board.

SAP systems, ERP systems are in place. CRM will be live, and is under testing and will be live before the launch.

We reaffirm commissioning and product launch in Q3 fiscal '27, October-December '26 quarter, precisely as committed to you when we announced this investment. We'll be within our capex program which we had announced earlier.

Let me close where I began. Demand is strong and broadening.

Fuel cost storm is a yo-yo, we have to keep an eye on and wade through it, the West Asia crisis, I don't know when it'll end. Our acquired assets are turning from integration effort into earnings engines.

Our growth to 240 million tons is funded and under construction. This year we launch a new growth business in terms of cables and wires.

We said we will cross 200 million tons; we did, a year early. We said we would complete brand migration of India Cements and Kesoram; we did, a quarter early.

We said cables and wires would launch in Q3 fiscal '27, and it will. That consistency of delivery quarter after quarter is our foundation and commitment.

We remain very confident of a very bright future for the next quarter, the quarter after that, and the quarter after that. Thank you for your continued trust in UltraTech, and with that, I hand over the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press * and 2.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

The first question is from Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

Amit Murarka

Hi. Thanks for the opportunity.

Congratulations on a great result. My question is now on capital allocation, actually.

Now you seem to be well on track to exceed ₹20,000 crore OCF maybe next year, and you mentioned that the capex plan is ₹17,000-odd crores over next 2, 2.5 years. How do you think this growing cash flow will get utilized across dividends, cement capex, and is there any plan to scale up the cables and wires or building material capex further?

Atul Daga

Amit, as of now, we are fully booked in terms of our cash flows. All the operating cash flows will get plowed back into growth, and beyond that also there is dividends for shareholders.

As of now, I don't foresee any requirement for further investment in cables and wires. They will now first mature and milk the investment that they have done.

Capital allocation, to conclude, remains very committed to cement and shareholders. Sure,

Amit Murarka

sure. Thank you.

Just a second question on India Cements. I believe most of the targets you had in mind when you acquired the business is now nearing completion.

Just wanted to understand what are the steps that remain before you contemplate, let's say, merging the business into standalone entity itself?

Atul Daga

There is a capex program underway which we mentioned has to get completed. There are some non-core assets in terms of land which we need to dispose of, Q4 '28 or maybe a quarter earlier, we expect to complete our journey.

There's a lot of work still happening. When we look at operating parameters, there are certain operating parameters which we still need to bring under control or in line with UltraTech's standalone performance.

Amit Murarka

Got it. Sure, thank you.

Is this fair to assume this time you've not reported the standalone volumes in the presentation or press release, fair to assume that the entire volume that is mentioned over there is basically standalone in terms of grey cement?

Atul Daga

Yes, yes. As in India Cements volume?

No, which volume?

Amit Murarka

The standalone, I meant. UltraTech standalone basically.

Yeah.

Atul Daga

Entire India Cements is part of UltraTech volume, there's no separate. Yeah.

Amit Murarka

Got it. Sure.

Thank you so much. I'll come back in the queue.

Yeah.

Atul Daga

Thanks, Amit.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley.

Please go ahead. Hi.

Thank you for taking my questions.

Rahul Gupta

A couple of questions. One, you have talked about you growing faster than industry over the past few years.

Now, not just on volumes, you have been outperforming on cement pricing as well. Now, if we look at other large players, they are able to either prioritize volumes, or they prioritize pricing.

In your case, despite your base, you have been gaining share on both sides. Can you please help us understand what is working for you and not for others?

That's my first question. Thank you.

Atul Daga

Thank you, Rahul. I think you already asked, you gave the answer.

Nonetheless, how should I begin? I think UltraTech is a brand that customers trust.

Decades of consistent delivery, bag after bag, site after site, which has made UltraTech synonymous with reliability. Quality that we swear by.

Every ton that goes out has to meet our quality standards. If there are, and it's not that there are no complaints, if there are complaints, product complaints, they have to get resolved ASAP.

Our complete network of plants, whether it's integrated plant, grinding plant, grinding units, or bulk terminals, everything is focused on meeting the customer's requirements. At Aditya Birla Group, and same as at UltraTech, the legacy of governance and ethical conduct is at its highest pecking order.

Dealers, institutional buyers, they know when they're dealing with UltraTech, that certainly is a assurance for them, and it requires and commands a premium. We are able to meet our customers' requirements wherever we are present with today almost 76 operating facilities?

Yeah.

Atul Daga

76 operating facilities spread across the country, we are within the reach of a customer with a network of over or nearly 2,000 warehouses, Neeraj? 2,500?

2,000.

Atul Daga

2, 2,000 plus minus warehouses, 150,000 channel partners across the country, our dedicated transporters, almost 50% plus of our transport service providers are dedicated to UltraTech. All these things put together bring forward a power which is very unique to UltraTech.

I think, Rahul, it can be a commentary or a story which I can tell you over a cup of coffee, which might extend for a couple of hours, but my story will not be complete. UltraTech today is in a position with more than what 16,000 employees across the country and the network that I spoke about, our RMC plant network, which has been rapidly growing, 477 RMC plants, 5,000 plus UBS stores, which are dedicated outlets for UltraTech cement, besides any other building material, clearly brings out a respect for UltraTech as a brand, which nobody else can come any close to.

Rahul Gupta

Got it. That's very assuring.

Thank you so much. My second question is partly bookkeeping.

In the last quarter, you mentioned that around ₹20 per ton impact came in from the West Asia crisis. What would be that number for this quarter, and I know things are still volatile, but any guidance for the next quarter that may come up in terms of cost?

Thank you so much. Yeah.

Atul Daga

Next quarter, which is July-September quarter, will have a full impact of the war because we'll have all cost coming to our head from 1st of July plus monsoons. Monsoons are doing all right, if not too bad.

I know there are some pockets in the country which are staring at a very dry spell. Generally, if monsoons are doing all right, we would have a large number of kilns undergoing maintenance, maintenance cost will be there.

Fuel is expensive. We have stocked up, but the cost of fuel will go up.

I would expect the cost to go up by ₹130 to ₹140 per ton all put together. I can't associate one line item with war and other with something else, but all put together, we should be going up around ₹130, ₹140 per ton.

Rahul Gupta

Got it. What would be one-off cost inflation in the first quarter?

Atul Daga

In the first quarter was fuel cost largely.

Packing bags.

Atul Daga

Oh, why am I forgetting packing bags? Packing bags was the biggest cost impact and then fuel.

Rahul Gupta

Or any way that you can quantify what that number would be overall?

Atul Daga

Fuel cost, if you look at, it's given in the presentation. From 874, it went to ₹915 per ton, which is a 5% increase.

₹40 per ton.

Atul Daga

Yeah, ₹25, ₹40 per ton was increase in fuel cost alone. Packing bags was full quarter basis, but we had seen packing bags from an average cost of ₹9 plus minus going up to ₹14, ₹15 also before settling down somewhere around ₹10 a bag.

You've still seen an average increase from ₹9 per bag, Neeraj, for the quarter?

₹12.

Atul Daga

So ₹12. From a ₹9 per bag, it went up to ₹12 per bag average for the quarter.

Rahul Gupta

Got it.

Atul Daga

These two elements. So 40 ₹40 was on fuel and ₹20 give or take on bags.

Rahul Gupta

Got it. Thank you so much, and wish you all the best.

Atul Daga

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA.

Please go ahead.

Indrajit Agarwal

Hi, thank you for the chance and congratulations on a good set of numbers. I have two questions.

My first question has two parts on demand. Part of the demand has been helped by drier weather, particularly in the month of June.

Do you think that impacts demand negatively in second half, particularly in rural areas?

Atul Daga

Yeah. There are still some dry states as I was speaking today.

For example, I was speaking to somebody in the morning. Rajasthan is going through a very dry patch right now.

That demand impact will be felt next year because they will have water crisis. The usual slowdown in monsoon quarters, we June was of course, as you said, dry, but July onwards, we have started seeing wet spells across various parts of the country.

Good thing is that barring one or two states, every everybody every state has experienced rains, it's not that bad. It's still the first month of monsoons.

We'll have to wait for August and September to tell us how the weather progresses and what is the impact of the dry stroke wet spell.

Indrajit Agarwal

Second part of the same question: do you see a step change in demand in East, which has been a laggard so far, at least in the past quarter? Yes.

Atul Daga

Yes, very much. Multiple states which have gone through elections, the land reforms, which is about to come in place in the Eastern states, the structural change which will be visible.

It's not next quarter story, but it's next 2, 3, 4 years' story. East will witness good demand upcycle.

Indrajit Agarwal

My next question is on the fuel mix. Given that the correction we have seen in petcoke that's in the past month or so, is it still more favorable to buy coal or do we see petcoke [more?]

?

Atul Daga

Petcoke is now expensive, no?

As compared to petcoke, it's expensive

Atul Daga

than coal. Petcoke has become more expensive in energy terms than coal.

Coal becomes more attractive to buy. Domestic coal becomes more attractive to buy.

Sure.

Indrajit Agarwal

Lastly, the ₹130 to ₹140 per ton impact that you mentioned, does it also include the impact of operating deleverage given that 2Q is generally a low volume quarter?

Atul Daga

All in I am looking at: maintenance cost, operating deleverage if you want to call it, fuel costs. Packing bags luckily is not moving haywire.

It's the usual July-September quarter impact. We cannot really say it's happening because of the war.

Let's be honest with ourselves. It's

Indrajit Agarwal

the usual July-September quarter. Because quantum looks much lower than the seasonality.

Congratulations on that as well. Thank you, that's all from my side.

Atul Daga

That's UltraTech for you, my friend. Thank you.

Indrajit Agarwal

Thank you.

Atul Daga

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Prateek Kumar from Jefferies.

Please go ahead.

Prateek Kumar

Hi. Good afternoon, sir.

Congrats for great results. My first question is on, can you revisit your cost saving numbers, I think for last quarter there was like for the next 2 years, you had like talked about upwards of 200.

Atul Daga

Like,

Prateek Kumar

how do you see that numbers?

Atul Daga

Prateek, what I had said also instead of looking at it quarter-by-quarter, we should look at it on an annual basis because this quarter I show you something and I'll have to show a negative performance in July-September quarter. Lead distance has come down further from 363 to 360, 367 to 360, Neeraj?

367 to 360, now.

Atul Daga

So 7 km of lead has come down. If you annualize it at at least ₹2.5 to ₹3 per ton per kilometer, that's a saving which is visible upfront.

Clinker conversion has improved to 1.5. That's a small improvement.

Other than that, power consumption has gone down, which is visible in my presentation. Power rate has gone down because of our power mix changes, which is visible in our presentation.

At the end of the year, we will give a comprehensive number. That'll make more sense to do a comparison.

Prateek Kumar

Sure, thank you. On war impact on cost curve, it was expected that you also I think presented in a slide like last time, upwards of 250 to maybe a higher number.

Including this ₹130, ₹140 cost impact next quarter, all of it is in the cost now by the end of 2Q for the company?

Atul Daga

Prateek, what I had talked about 250 would be expecting for the industry, generally was not a very thorough number. As I mentioned now from where we are, we might see ₹130 to ₹140, now I'm speaking about UltraTech, ₹130 to ₹140 further increase in costs, and we would trigger measures to absorb these costs.

We'll see what we can achieve. Cost increases could be anywhere between ₹130 to ₹140 per ton in the July-September quarter, and I cannot alienate what is because of war and what is the normal maintenance quarter.

Prateek Kumar

Last question, on your capacity utilization of 81%, can we split it region-wise? You said East region is inflecting, but any specific demand trend on regional basis?

Atul Daga

One second. Is this the growth number?

Yeah, 13.1% growth that we talk about, East was the slowest in April-June quarter, partly because of the elections, labor availability. North Central was the highest, growing above 15%.

South and North were a shade below 15%. West and Central were above 15%.

Prateek Kumar

Sure, thank you. I will get back to the queue.

Atul Daga

Thanks, Prateek.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Siddharth Mehrotra from Kotak Securities.

Please go ahead.

Siddharth Mehrotra

Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on a good set of numbers, sir. Sir, given the backdrop in which we are now almost 50% of the overall market and we seem to put no foot wrong, sir, just wanted to know, what do you think are, say, the top three challenges for our company, say from a 5-year horizon?

Atul Daga

Oh. I'm trying to think.

I will think and come back in the queue. I really don't know.

I'm not being hoity-toity over here, but the biggest challenge for the industry and for us would be if demand slows down, which I don't foresee happening. From that point of view, I think we are in a very good situation where we have 200 million tons of capacity utilized at 81% this quarter, 200 going to 240, and further there will be growth very soon, we'll come back with our growth plans.

I think fundamentally we believe as long as demand is there, everything else is immaterial. As I mentioned, the urbanization factor, which is 35% in India, might reach about 39% by 2030, which is still way below again as compared to most of the other markets.

If something were to happen structurally to demand growth and suddenly people are not buying houses and industrialization is not happening, data centers start vanishing from India and be done in Pakistan or anywhere else, that could be an issue, which I don't think is going to happen. Demand remains strong.

The challenge will be that we don't have capacity; we have to expand.

Siddharth Mehrotra

Got it, sir. This is well understood, sir.

Sir, just wanted to check, there's a slide we have presented on raw material cost index, and I noticed that our limestone raising costs have gone up significantly, almost 13, 14% on a 4Q basis, and they're at the highest level in the past 2 years. Can you just tell us what has happened there?

Why is this cost suddenly spiking?

Atul Daga

I don't know what kind of vehicle you drive, petrol or diesel, and you didn't pay any higher price for fuel, but industrial diesel went up almost 50% from ₹100 per liter to ₹150 is what it had peaked at, right?

It peaked 150. ₹78 to ₹80.

Oh,

Atul Daga

from a ₹78, ₹80, my colleagues correct me, from ₹78, ₹80 pre-war, it went up to ₹150s during the war period. They had reduced it, but now I believe again prices are going up.

Again, it's an upward movement. That diesel is a very big component in limestone raising cost, which impacted our raw material costs.

Siddharth Mehrotra

Understood, sir. This is essentially industrial diesel which is being used.

Got it.

Atul Daga

Yes, industrial diesel. Yes, please.

Bulk purchase.

Atul Daga

Industrial diesel. Yeah.

Siddharth Mehrotra

Sir. Just one last question.

Sir, any sort of guidance or projections or any aspirations we have, say for example in the wires and cables segment which is about to come online next quarter?

Atul Daga

Sky is the limit, we don't give any guidance. We would like to be profitable, grounded, and grow with the market.

Siddharth Mehrotra

Got it, sir. Thank you.

Atul Daga

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Before we take the next question, a request to participants to please limit your questions to two per participant.

The next question is from Raghav Maheshwari from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.

Raghav Maheshwari

Congratulations, sirs, on the excellent results. Sir, just one thing want to understand.

As you mentioned in your opening remarks about brand power and premiumization, my question is regarding that: how do you see Indian cement industry as a branded product play versus right now buzz going into the market as a commodity product play? What is your view on a brand power role in the trade market today and its importance evolving over the medium to long term?

Atul Daga

Thanks, Raghav. I think India is a retail market.

From any wild stretch of imagination, if you look at the urbanization level in the country, the demand potential that exists, the RMC mix in the country, RMC as a percentage of overall business might not be more than 20%. That clearly says that where is the remaining cement getting sold?

It's in the retail market. As long as India is a retail market for cement, it will remain a branded cement play, is my view, my personal opinion.

There is enough data available for you. As I told you, RMC for us, it's about 3.5%.

3.5% of our sale is RMC. Our institutional customers would be 35% or thereabouts, give or take.

67 65 to 66% would be retail. If I marry this data point to India as a whole, the demography of India, the spending habits of India, if you look at the number of cities which are more than a million population, today we have 50-something cities which will reach to 71 cities by 2030.

63 today.

Atul Daga

Sorry, 63 today? Yeah, 63 cities today which will reach about 71 cities by 2030.

The point is there's a huge amount of urbanization required. If you look at cities with vertical housing, they're not too many.

You can count them on your fingertips. Now Indian housing is verticalizing where corporate real estate is happening, but large part of the country remains to be individual homebuilder.

As long as India is a individual homebuilder market, it's a retail market, and that's where the retail markets bring the requirement of brand. A very unique market, India.

Not just cement, steel is also branded. There are several other commodities which if you step outside India and look at, those are commodities, but India, for example, TMT, my colleague is telling me TMT rebar.

Tatas have a steel which is a branded product, JSW has a retail brand on steel, paints in India is a big brand, cement, because it's a retail market. Why are there brands?

Because it's a retail market, and that's where cement also is in the same story. India is a retail market, and that's where brand play comes into picture.

I believe given the timelines that we look at, at least I don't know, a very long number of years before India is fully urbanized. Till then, you will have a brand play.

I hope I have answered your question.

Raghav Maheshwari

Sir. Sir, is it a fair understanding that if till the market level we will not achieve almost 70%, 80% sales of cement via RMC or for the key customers, till the brand power will remain in the key focus, right?

Atul Daga

Yes. If I were to correlate this with UltraTech, out of our total sale of 40 million tons, or last year total sale of 145 million tons, 3.5% was RMC sales.

This is in spite of the fact that we have the largest number of RMC plants in the country. We have today 477 plants.

RMC will be a surrogate. You go to any other market, you step to the neighboring UAE where RMC is the biggest customer for cement, and there we don't have a brand play.

As long as India is still very in its nascent stages in RMC, India will remain a branded cement play.

Raghav Maheshwari

Got it, sir. Thank you.

All the best.

Atul Daga

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Rashi from Citi Group.

Please go ahead.

Thank you. My first question is on pricing.

You mentioned that the June exit prices were higher in the South and the East. Are you expecting the overall monsoon quarter to average slightly higher than the prior quarter, or flattish?

Atul Daga

Expecting higher is definitely everybody's desire. We will attempt it.

We'll see where we land.

Okay. Understood.

Then industry volume growth would be how much during this quarter?

Atul Daga

Too early, but anywhere between 7 to 8%. We want to see some more results, but our marketing intel says it should be around 7 to 8%.

On the capital expenditure, the bulk of your expansion is getting concluded in FY28. Beyond that, is there anything on the drawing board yet, organic or is it going to be inorganic if at all opportunities come up?

Atul Daga

Inorganic, obviously, if there are opportunities, we will examine them. Our team has already got onto the drawing board to take us beyond 240.

Once the plans are ready, we will come back with absolute micro details.

Got it. Just one last question from me.

The blended coal cost was how much during the quarter and how much is it now?

Atul Daga

Fuel cost you're asking? 915.

1.9.

Atul Daga

1.9, yeah. That's you are asking was 1.9.

On a coal cost basis, like on a dollar dollar basis, do you have that? $134,

Atul Daga

$134 per ton.

Where are we at now?

Atul Daga

Would be around ₹2 per kcal?

Yeah.

Atul Daga

₹2 per kcal.

Got it. Thank you.

Atul Daga

Next quarter, current quarter, yeah.

Thank you.

Atul Daga

Rashi, ₹2, I think we won't go beyond that because we are fully inventory loaded.

Got it. Okay.

Thank you.

Atul Daga

Thanks, Rashi.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

Pulkit Patni

Sir, thank you for taking my question. Sir, my first question is more a clarification to the question Indrajit had asked.

Typically between first and second quarter, just because of negative operating leverage, you have about a ₹200 increase in cost per ton. Plus obviously there's increase in fuel, power and fuel cost.

What you mentioned was the overall increase in cost would be more like ₹120, ₹130 per ton. I just want to make sure that I get this.

Atul Daga

There will be ₹130 to ₹140 cost pressure. What Indrajit talked about negative operating leverage, there is a positive in that negative operating leverage also because our size has been continuously going up.

Whatever volumes we sell will be significantly higher than earlier periods, which will give us still some advantage.

Pulkit Patni

Sir, still it's a lot. It'll be ₹200 decline plus the increase in fuel cost, so that should be in the range of ₹320, ₹330 overall, right?

Is that not?

Atul Daga

No. I am looking at not ₹200 decline, I'm looking at ₹140 decline in terms of my ₹130 to ₹140 decline because of costs.

Pulkit Patni

Maybe I'll take it offline just to understand it better.

Atul Daga

Sir,

Pulkit Patni

my second question is on river linking. Yes, sir.

Atul Daga

Pulkit Pulkit, one second.

Pulkit Patni

One second.

Atul Daga

What I was talking about is from the previous quarter.

Pulkit Patni

Sequentially.

Atul Daga

Sequentially,

Pulkit Patni

yeah.

Atul Daga

I was not commenting on YoY because I think nobody looks at YoY these days, so.

Pulkit Patni

No. Absolutely.

My question was also only sequentially.

Atul Daga

All right.

Pulkit Patni

Sir. I'll need to get the better understanding.

Atul Daga

Sir,

Pulkit Patni

my second question is on river linking. You mentioned Ken-Betwa, which is the first project which is underway.

Just to understand, is river linking a very cement-intensive project? Because there could be more coming in India in the next few years, just wanted to get a broad understanding how cement-intensive.

Similar to a hydropower plant, would it be?

Atul Daga

I don't have a comparison with hydro power plants, but river banks have to be done, silting has to be done, and I don't know whether dams are required or not required, but river banks have to be built, which is concrete. With the river banks being built, you have concrete structures on the either sides as well.

We expect it to be very cement happy situation. Vadhavan Port, I forgot to mention.

I should have mentioned now I think. Multiple packages have already been awarded, which means that work will also commence for the country.

Lot of positivity.

Pulkit Patni

Absolutely. No, thank you so much.

Atul Daga

Thanks, Pulkit.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ashish Jain from Macquarie India.

Please go ahead.

Ashish Jain

Hello. Hi, sir, good afternoon.

Sir, my first question is on dividend. How should we think about dividend because last year what we paid had a one-off?

Should we think it is more per-share basis or as a percentage of profits? How should we think about it?

Atul Daga

Percentage of profits, that's the way our board is looking at it.

Ashish Jain

Ex of one-off, is a more sustainable one to think?

Atul Daga

I'm sorry?

Ashish Jain

Ex of the one-off that we paid like the ₹100 special that we paid, ex of

Atul Daga

that, no? You call it special, be happy with it, but I am expecting good dividends.

I am holding my stock.

Ashish Jain

Right. Sir, secondly, in terms of pricing, let's say in the short term, which is Q2, I understand pricing we're hoping it to be resilient.

Is there something for us to believe is a more structural change and shift on profitability focus at least for us, and hope that even if, let's say, input cost goes down in the later part, pricing and margins should structurally remain higher, or there could be a focus shift to market share much faster with all the capacities that we are adding?

Atul Daga

I don't know, you went too long. I've lost track of what you were saying.

Can you repeat?

Ashish Jain

No, sir. What I'm saying is, near term, the cost inflation will support pricing is the hope or expectation at least that we have.

In the later part, if input cost goes down, should we think that pricing will be at risk, or, given the focus on profit?

Atul Daga

I feel, Ashish, prices move with demand. If demand is strong all-India basis, then prices can go up.

If cost curve comes down, then obviously not necessary to prices to reduce.

Ashish Jain

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Atul Daga

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Pinakin from HSBC.

Please go ahead.

Thank you, sir. Two questions.

If I look at the grey cement volume growth, in the fourth quarter it was 9.3% year-on-year, in the first quarter is 13.1%. Clearly, the market [seems to be?]

picking up. If the industry environment remains as it is, can we expect double-digit demand growth, double-digit sales volume growth for grey cements in FY27 for the company?

Atul Daga

Yes, we are targeting double-digit volume growth this year.

Okay. What would you attribute to this acceleration in market share gains quarter-on-quarter?

Array

Atul Daga

Pinakin, we spoke about it. I think the fundamentals of our brand are very strong, our distribution network, our reach to the markets, our people, our quality, the brand which people trust, everything adds up to I mentioned about the whatever category you might want to call the old India Cements and Kesoram brands, they were certainly not A category brands.

From their own B or C category markets, we have not lost a market share. What does it mean?

That we have converted that market for the customer who was happy buying a B and C category at a particular price point, now has got convinced to buy UltraTech at a higher price. That's where our strength lies, and that is where the whole growth trajectory is.

That is where we are able to do better the industry.

Sure, thanks. Just on the variable cost, especially packaging and energy, now we understand Q2 will have a delayed flow-through of the prices that are prevailing in April and May.

If we take the spot prices of petcoke, of packaging, should we expect second half variable cost to be lower on a per-ton basis versus the first half?

Atul Daga

Yes, logically, yes. Now war has to go out of the way so that oil subsides and coal and petcoke, because ocean freight, my colleague was telling me just today, insurance premiums have gone up to 4, 5% for the ocean route as compared to less than 1%.

That is the kind of differences which the war is creating. Once the war is out of the way, things should stabilize, and H2, hopefully, God willing, should be a better place in terms of costs.

Got it. Thank you very much, sir.

Atul Daga

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ritesh Shah from Investec.

Please go ahead.

Ritesh Shah

Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity.

Congratulations for good set of numbers. Sir, three quick questions.

Sir, first on wires and cables, what is the sort of working capital days that we're looking at?

Atul Daga

Working capital days. Initially, we will have a higher working capital because we have to ramp up inventories, but going forward and structurally, we are working on financing our suppliers on cables and wires, which should release working capital.

Excuse me for having a higher working capital for the next 6 months, after which we start stabilizing and coming down to 30 days plus minus of working capital. I don't have a number ready, but that's the intent.

Ritesh Shah

Right. Sir, specifically on the inventory days, I think again we will be procuring from Hindalco given the lead distance is quite low over here.

Atul Daga

4 hours.

Ritesh Shah

4 hours. 4 hours.

Correct. Sir, there should be a tangible benefit on the denominator on working capital over here, right?

Atul Daga

Yes, please. That's what I'm saying.

I don't have a handle on exact number which we land with, but April-June 2027 should be a period to see a stable number. Right now, it'll be a ramp-up of working capital.

Ritesh Shah

Sure. Sir, my second question is we have already commissioned 55% of what we are supposed to commission for the full year.

We are adding almost 45 million tons FY27-28. Would you like to put a certain number, say, for our capacity addition FY27-28?

This is what percentage of the market, probably you can qualify from a capacity share or a market share. Either of it will help.

Atul Daga

This I think we'll have to work out and give it to you. March '28, we should exit with 235 million tons in India, huh?

237.

Atul Daga

237 million tons in India. We will end 212 million tons March '27, so that's the balance coming up to 20 25 million tons the next year.

Ritesh Shah

Sir, as per your estimates, how much is the industry capacity addition in '27-28?

Atul Daga

We'll have to again recalibrate it, Ritesh, because whatever I hear, some industry players are wanting to revisit their expansion plans. When we have a firm number there, then only I think you would be in a better position to tell me what is the industry growth expected.

My number: we will reach at 235 million tons to exact number 237 million tons end of March '28 from 200 where are we today?

200.

Atul Daga

200 point something today. We have 37 million tons coming in '27 and '28.

Ritesh Shah

Perfect. Sir, just last question.

You covered most of the variables. We didn't hear a magical ₹1,400 per ton number from you.

Would you like to qualify timelines over here?

Atul Daga

I have already called it out n number of times. There's no point in repeating it: January-March '28 quarter without any war.

Ritesh Shah

Without any war. Cool.

Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you very much. We'll take that as the last question.

On behalf of UltraTech Cement Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen.

You may now disconnect your lines.