Lupin Limited

Lupin Limited

1,925.00
INR
-3.00
(-0.16%)
115.46EPS
20.98P/E
1.11TMarket Cap
Nov 03Next Earn

Q4 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026

Vinita Gupta

Good afternoon, friends. I'm very pleased to welcome you to our Q4 and end of fiscal year '26 earnings call.

I have with me our MD Nilesh, our CFO Ramesh, and our Head of Investor Relations Ravi. We look forward to sharing with you our highlights for the quarter as well as the full year and the outlook for fiscal year '27.

This quarter marked our 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth with highest ever sales and profitability. While the US has clearly been a standout for us, most of our regions, be it the India prescription business, other develop markets, and other emerging markets, have delivered double-digit growth, growing 14% year-over-year.

This highlights the strength and resilience of our business model and geographically diversified business. Fiscal year '26 has been a stellar year for the organization, with revenues and profitability at record levels.

Turning to individual business segments, our US business continued growth momentum, surpassing the record sales achieved in the last quarter. For the full year, our US business achieved sales of $1.3 billion, an impressive growth of almost 40% year-over-year.

Growth was driven by new products, such as Tolvaptan, where we benefited from being the only generic on the market; Mirabegron, where we had the benefit of full year of sales; and new complex injectable products like generic Risperdal Consta with CGT exclusivity, also our first product from our proprietary Nanomi platform. Our base business also grew this year, supported by higher volumes more than offsetting low single-digit price erosion and additional generic competition in a few key products like Suprep and Albuterol.

We filed 11 products and launched 15 products during the fiscal year. Going ahead, we remain focused on doubling the share of complex products in our US business, led by respiratory and complex injectables, augmented by our biosimilars in the next couple of years.

In the next 3 years, we expect to launch 50-plus products in the US, with 10 exclusive first-to-files, 4 biosimilars, as well as 2 to 3 505(b)(2)s. In addition, we remain committed to expand our specialty portfolio through a mix of organic initiatives and targeted acquisitions.

Coming to India, our India business has grown 11.5% year-over-year in the quarter, with the core prescription business growing 14.5%, representing a 1.2 times growth against IPM. All our key therapies outperformed the respective market growth, with respiratory segment and cardiac growing at 2.5 times and 1.3 times their category growth.

I would specifically like to mention our diabetes segment, which grew at 20.9% year-over-year, outperforming category growth by 1.4 times during the quarter. For the full fiscal year, prescription growth stood at 10.6%, ahead of IPM growth of 9.9%, led by a strong volume growth of 6.4%.

The chronic segment now accounts for 66% of our portfolio, up from 64% in fiscal year '25, and we have set ourselves a target to increase this share to 70% in the next 5 years. During the quarter, we successfully launched our version of Semaglutide injection under the brand name Semanext, targeting diabetes and endocrinology specialists, and Lirafit, focused on GI and gynac physicians.

I'm happy to share that over the past 1 month, we are now ranked either two, second or third, amongst all the branded generics, which is a testimony to our strength and capabilities in this segment. We are confident of further leveraging these capabilities to launch our oral tablet product later this financial year.

We remain confident that our India formulations business will continue to perform IPM by 1.2, 1.3 times, supported by a strong sales force of nearly 12,000 people and pipeline of more than 80 new product launches over the coming years, including innovative in-house and in-licensed products. Our other developed markets, Europe, Canada, and Australia, accounted for 12% of our total sales and grew 13.3% in fiscal year '26.

Within this, our European sales have surpassed the $200 million mark, having grown at a healthy double digit during the year. We expect this contribution to increase as we roll out a pipeline of complex products, including biosimilars, and integrate our newly acquired Visufarma business from this quarter onwards.

Emerging markets delivered an impressive 49% year-over-year growth in the quarter, led by Brazil, South Africa, and Philippines. Brazil continued its strong momentum of the last three quarters, growing 113% year-over-year in local currency during Q4, driven by successful commercialization of Dapagliflozin.

We are starting to establish a real presence in the diabetes and metabolic space in the emerging markets, with Dapa serving as a strong start and the launch of Empagliflozin in Brazil and South Africa this year, as well as Semaglutide in South Africa later this year. Turning to R&D, our spend was 8% of sales this quarter and 7.5% in fiscal year '26, with continued focus on complex and specialty platforms.

We have over 50 active products in the pipeline, with near-term emphasis on respiratory, complex injectables, and biosimilars. We have also evolved a strong 505(b)(2) pipeline in the last couple of years, and we'll start seeing product launches in the next 2 years.

We are also strengthening our India innovation portfolio through both in-house development and in-licensing of late-stage assets. Switching to compliance, we received the EIR for Goa and VAI status from the US FDA during this quarter.

We are on track with our remediation efforts at our Pithampur Unit-2 facility. As we have mentioned in the past, we remain fully committed to maintaining the highest standards of quality and compliance across all our sites globally.

In conclusion, reflecting on the year gone by, we outperformed all our metrics, delivering strong financial and operational performance, and achieved significant milestones. This strong performance was driven by record earnings in our key markets: US, India, and Europe, as well as significant turnaround in markets such as Brazil, proving that perseverance and disciplined execution deliver results.

In parallel, we have made meaningful strides in building a robust, innovation-driven pipeline across multiple platforms. We are also advancing cross-functional initiatives that leverage state-of-the-art technologies and AI to enhance efficiency and prepare the organization to operate at its best in an increasingly competitive and challenging global environment.

We have built a strong foundation that positions Lupin for sustainable growth. As mentioned in our earlier interactions, we expect to grow our top line high single digits, with margins at around 25% in fiscal year '27, despite increased headwinds from and uncertain geopolitical environment.

With this, I will hand it over to Ramesh for a deeper analysis of our performance.

Ramesh Swaminathan

Thank you, Vinita. Friends, I welcome you all to our Q4 FY26 and FY26 annual earnings call.

I'm happy to report another quarter of strong results, with total revenue from operations growing 32% year-on-year to ₹7,475 crores, and EBITDA growing at 68% year-on-year to ₹2,171 crores. This marks the 15th consecutive quarter of growth from the company.

On a full-year basis, the performance has been equally strong, with total revenues from operations growing 23% to ₹27,958 crores, and EBITDA, excluding forex and other income, growing 55% to ₹8,160 crores. EBITDA margins at 29.7% have increased 590 basis points year-on-year, led by higher gross margins, and also operating efficiencies in our business.

I'm happy to report that we handsomely beat the guidance we set at the beginning of the year, both in terms of sales growth and margin trajectory. What is happening is that the growth has been diversified and robust across our major geographies: be it the US, which grew 46%; India prescriptions, which grew 10.6%; other developed markets, which grew 13.3%; other emerging markets, which grew 35.2%; or in our Gx business, which grew 11.8% during the year.

During the quarter, the US business recorded sales of $371 million, 6% higher quarter-on-quarter in constant currency terms. This growth has been driven by new product launches and higher volumes in base business, offset by additional competition and lower seasonal product sales.

For the full year, the US business has recorded sales of $1,318 million, $1.31 billion, as against US$944 million last year, registering a growth of 40% year-on-year in constant currency terms. This is led by this has been led by volume growth in our base business and healthy contributions from new products, offset by single-digit price declines due to additional competition in key products like Albuterol during the year.

Our strategy of focusing on complex products has paid handsome dividends, which is demonstrated by the launch of key complex injectables like Risperdal Consta, Glucagon, and Liraglutide this year. This will be strengthened by the launch of our first biosimilars in the US in FY27.

We have an attractive pipeline of more than 60 products in injectables and respiratory portfolio currently under development, which will augment our complex portfolio going ahead. The India region: during the quarter, the India business recorded sales of ₹1,908 crores, growing at 11.5% year-on-year.

I would like to highlight that core prescription business grew by 14.5% year-on-year, as against an IPM growth of 11.6%, translating into 1.3x times the IPM growth. This is offset by lower tender sales in our GIB business.

On a full-year basis, the India business grew by 7.1% year-on-year to ₹8,114 crores, with the prescription business growing 10.6%, as against IPM of 9.9%, translating to 1.1x times the IPM growth. Key segments like cardiology and respiratory handsomely outperformed this category, growing at 1.3x and 1.7x respectively.

This is offset by lower growth in diabetes segment, which grew 9.4% as against category growth of 12.2%, impacted by loss of exclusivity for certain in-licensed products. Volume growth has been a healthy 6.4% during the year, against IPM volume growth of 2.6%, and the chronic share in the mix has increased to 66% from around 64% in FY25.

The share of in-licensed products the quarter has reduced to about 6% of our portfolio from 12% last year, whilst also having a positive impact on our profitability going ahead. We launched 15 products in FY26 and plan to launch and about 20 products in FY27.

We remain confident that our India formulations business will continue to outperform IPM by 1.2 to 1.3x going forward, supported by a sales force force of about 12,000 people and a pipeline of more than 80 new product launches over the coming years, including innovative in-house and in-licensed products. Other developed markets: for the quarter, other developed markets, Europe, Canada, and Australia, recorded sales of ₹845 crores, growing 7.1% year-on-year, and accounting for 12% of our total sales.

For the full year, these markets recorded sales of ₹3,244 crores, growing 13.3% year-on-year, and contributing 11% of our total sales. We expect this contribution to increase as we roll out our pipeline of complex products, and incorporate the acquisition of Visufarma in FY27 first quarter.

Emerging markets: for the quarter, emerging markets recorded sales of ₹991 crores, delivering an impressive 49% year-on-year, led by our key markets of Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Philippines. Brazil in particular maintained strong momentum, post the turnaround of of last few quarters, growing 113% year-on-year in local currency terms, driven by successful commercialization of Dapagliflozin.

For the year, emerging markets registered sales of ₹3,483 crores, growing at 35.2% year-on-year, led by growth in Brazil and South Africa. Getting on to the P&L, other operating income: other operating income at ₹83 crores is as against ₹105 crores in Q4 FY25, has decreased by 21% year-on-year during the quarter.

This decrease is primarily on account of lower export benefits from the PLI scheme during the quarter. On a full-year basis, other operating income came in at ₹471 crores against ₹516 crores last year.

Turning to the gross margins: gross margins continue their upward trajectory during the quarter at 75%, up from 67.7% in Q4 '25 last year, and up from 73.5% in Q3 FY26. For the full year, gross margins have improved to 73.3% from 69.2% last year.

This 410 basis points year-on-year improvement is driven by multiple factors, which includes better product mix, higher profitability in India from lower share of in-licensed products, increased volume and other cost improvements, and efficiencies which have which we have undertaken over the last several quarters. Employee benefit expenses: for the quarter, employee benefit expenses stood at ₹1,243 crores, increasing 24.1% year-on-year from ₹1,001 crores in Q4 FY25, translating to 16.8% of sales vis-à-vis 18% last year.

This change is largely attributable to higher costs due to regular annual increments and business growth during the year. For the full year, employee costs have increased 15.4% to ₹4,575 crores, mainly driven by annual salary hikes, India field force expansion, and forex translation.

This translates to 16.6% of sales in FY26 vis-à-vis 17.9% of sales in FY25. Manufacturing and other expenses: Q4 FY26 manufacturing and other expenses came in at ₹2,209 crores, a growth of 30.9% year-on-year, which translates to approximately 29.9% of sales, as compared to 30.3% of sales in Q4 FY Q4 this year.

The expenses were higher mainly due to higher volumes in the normal course of business and license fee payments on part of the on account of settlement agreements. Manufacturing and other expenses in FY26 came in at ₹7,898 crores, an increase of 19.2% year-on-year as compared to FY25.

This translates to 28% of sales as compared to 29.8% last year. This has been led by primarily higher R&D outlay, higher SG&A on account of field force a field force expansion, license fees on settlements, one-time acquisition-related costs, and higher volumes of increased sales.

R&D is at ₹590 crores, that's 8% of sales in Q4 FY26 as compared to ₹543 crores at 9.8% of sales in Q4 FY25. For the full year, R&D is ₹2,063 crores, translating to 7.5% of sales.

We expect R&D to be around 8% of sales for the next fiscal. EBITDA: EBITDA, excluding forex and other income during the quarter, was ₹2,171 crores vis-à-vis ₹1,292 crores the same period last year, an increase of 68% year-on-year, with margin of 29% 29.4% vis-à-vis 23.2% last year in the same period, an increase of 620 basis points over the last year.

On a full-year basis, EBITDA was ₹8,160 crores, a sharp increase of 54.6% year-on-year, with margins of 29.7% vis-à-vis 23.8% over the same period last year, and significantly higher than our margin guidance of 27% to 28%. The effective tax rate stood at 22.1% for FY26.

For FY27, we expect the ETR to be about 25%, 26% due to the phasing out of incentives on account of our domestic on some of our domestic facilities. Turning to the balance sheet: operating working capital stood at ₹7,132 crores as of 31st December 31st March '26, which translates to 87 days of net working capital as compared to 110 days recorded last year.

ROCE for the year translates to 28.4%. Net cash stood at ₹4,636 crores as against ₹310 crores as of 31st March 2025.

Whilst we focus on increased cash generation for our business, we would like to highlight that we continue to explore strategic allocation of our capital to ensure the long-term mission of the company, including on the specialty front. On the ESG front, Lupin continues to make tremendous progress.

Over 50% of our total energy consumption now comes from renewable sources. During the year, we achieved an important milestone with our first-time inclusion in the Dow Jones Best-in-Class Indices, reflecting our consistent focus on sustainable, responsible, and ethical business.

Lupin has been included in the DJSI World Index and as well as the Emerging Markets Index. On the people's front, we continued to strengthen our organization capabilities through robust systems and processes.

Our workplace culture has been recognized with Great as a Great Place to Work certification across 13 countries, covering all our operations globally. With this, we'll open our floor for discussions.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Request all participants who wish to ask questions to raise your hands on the participants tab on the screen. We will wait for 30 seconds for the queue to assemble.

Thank you. Thank you for the patience.

We'll take the first question from Tushar Manudhane.

Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on a great set of numbers.

Operator

Can you speak up? We can't hear you clearly, Tushar.

Am I audible?

Operator

Yes.

Yeah. I said congratulations on great set of numbers, first of all.

Secondly, just a clarification on guidance for FY27. Madam highlighted high single-digit revenue growth with 25% EBITDA margin, is it?

Ramesh Swaminathan

That's correct. We did say that we would be looking at around between 20 about 25%, about 25% in the vicinity of that for the full year, and, of course, high single-digit number in terms of overall sales growth.

Effectively, are you sort of factoring the competition for Tolvaptan kind of a product, and which is why you see EBITDA margin lowering down in FY27?

Vinita Gupta

Yes. We have factored that in, both competition for Mirabegron as well as Tolvaptan.

Got it. Just as far as Q4 is concerned, compared to Q3 FY26, while the revenue has sort of moved up on absolute basis, but EBITDA has moved down.

Is it to do with the US business profitability going down, or ex-US geographies EBITDA going down? If you can clarify that part.

Ramesh Swaminathan

There are two parts to that. Essentially, the EBITDA margins declined because of there's a slightly increased in our manpower cost, as you can see.

The second is, essentially, we have captured what we have paid out to Astellas on account of Mirabegron in our because of the settlement as part of the manufacturing other expenses line. That's also included.

There's, of course, the component of foreign exchange that's been captured out there.

It's largely to do with this US Mirabegron-related aspect, which has sort of dragged the EBITDA on a quarter-on-quarter basis, largely.

Ramesh Swaminathan

The other expenses line.

Yeah. All right, sir.

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you so much, Tushar, for the question. We'll take the next question from Neha Manpuria.

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question.

Am I audible?

Vinita Gupta

Yes.

Okay. Sorry about that.

Vinita, how should we think about the US business in the next year given what you mentioned about Tolvaptan and Mirabegron? Do you see any other product launches which could be meaningful?

I know it's difficult to sustain these days, but even as we see competition in Tolvaptan and Mirabegron, what sort of product launches should we look forward to over the next 2 years which probably gives us confidence on the 25% margin?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. With Tolvaptan and Mirabegron as well, apart from the additional competition, we still see the generic market growing, just given the generic penetration in Tolvaptan is under 40% and in Mirabegron is just reaching 50% right now.

There is the potential for additional generic penetration and expansion of the marketplace despite additional competition. That's one.

We do expect them to be material contributors, especially in fiscal year '27. Apart from that, I think in the next fiscal year, our Revicti product, the GPB, is a material product for us in fiscal year '27.

We have Saxenda that we hope to launch in the second half of the year, which would be a material product for us. We have 20-plus products.

We have two first-to-files as well. We have Avsartan as well as Rivaroxaban that both the exclusive dosage form that we have first-to-file on.

Then another big opportunity as we look at it right now for fiscal year '27 is Pegfilgrastim for us that we've just entered into a partnership with Valorum and expect that from Q2 and Q3 onwards, we'll start ramping up and be a material contributor to the fiscal year. I'm getting to your question about the next 2 years.

In fiscal year '28, we see potentially the impact of both full-year impact of Pegfilgrastim, as well as Ranibizumab that we expect to launch later in fiscal year '27 that should be a material opportunity for us in fiscal year '28. Also, we're in the final stages with Dulera at this point, just responding to the last query from the FDA, and would expect that product to be in the market in fiscal year '28.

Plus, we have a material 505(b)(2), Apixaban, new dosage form that we've filed to the agency. We expect that to come to the market in fiscal year '28.

A good number of product launches, some exclusive first-to-files, good impact of the biosimilars, and 505(b)(2) starting.

That's very helpful, Vinita. My second question is, I think Ramesh mentioned about capital allocation, given the increase in cash balance, which will only go up with these US launches.

How should we think about capital allocation priorities? I know you've mentioned this in the past, but just wanted to get a sense of what we're seeing in terms of opportunities in the market, what's interesting you, and what are the challenges in terms of not being able to deploy that money?

Thank you.

Vinita Gupta

We of course would like the right opportunities, we can deploy the capital effectively. Remain very focused in really allocating material portion of our capital to assets either on the specialty side of the business for the develop markets like this Visufarma acquisition, or assets that can complement us in India, both in our existing therapy areas as well as bolster the therapy areas that we want to build.

We continue to be very focused in really looking for assets in the specialty segments that we've identified. Now that we've transacted on Visufarma, we're seeing a high flow of ophthalmology assets, which could be pretty interesting for us.

Likewise, continue to look for pulmonology as well as rare neuro assets as well.

On the specialty side, the dearth of assets is not an issue, right? There are enough and more that you can look at.

It's about us selecting the assets that we want. Yeah.

Vinita Gupta

It's really finding the right assets that, from a risk standpoint, meet

our

Vinita Gupta

internal criteria, as well as give us enough in terms of potential to be meaningful to grow our specialty business.

Understood. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much, Neha, for your question. This is a reminder to request all the participants to raise their hands from the participant tab for more questions.

In the meanwhile, Bino, you can take the next question, please. Bino.

Bino, are you there?

Vinita Gupta

Are you

muted? Hi.

Yeah. Hi.

Thank you. Couple of questions from my side.

Vinita, given the settlement, is it fair to assume that in Q4, you have sold significantly more Mirabegron compared to Q3?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. We have had, some growth in Mirabegron in Q4 versus Q3, but just because of the growth in share, market share, for the generic.

Okay. This third player who has settled with Astellas, have they already entered the market?

Vinita Gupta

No, they haven't entered the market as of yet. We believe that they're waiting for product supply.

Got it. Coming to Tolvaptan, what is the timeline for competition entry that you are now looking at?

I believe there is a patent expiring in September this year. Is that a relevant timeline?

Vinita Gupta

That is the timeline that we have taken into account in our plans.

Got it. One final question to Ramesh.

The impact of PLI going away on other operating income, is that completely in the base now, or will we see some more decline from these levels?

Ramesh Swaminathan

No. I think, more or less, there'll be some PLI coming in next year, as well.

It will come back.

Ramesh Swaminathan

Yeah.

Oh, okay. This quarterly run rate roughly is maintainable?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Kind of.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much, Bino. We'll take the next question from Damayanti Kerai.

Damayanti, are you there?

Yeah. Hi.

Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on Visufarma.

Earlier you mentioned this will add around 50, 60 million of 50, 60 million euro sales on top line and 25% margin. Just want to hear your thought on where do you look this business to grow in say next 2 to 3 years, and what will be the key focus segments here?

Yeah.

Vinita Gupta

There are multiple areas where strategically the Visufarma acquisition adds to us. Number one, geographically, it expands our presence from UK, Germany, France to Italy and Spain, markets that we have had no presence in.

Just leveraging the presence across ophthalmology portfolio, taking our respiratory products, our biosimilars, NaMuscla, into this market is a real opportunity for us that we see has the potential of growing our overall footprint in Europe. Second, just given the pipeline that Visufarma has in the ophthalmology front, we expect the business in the ophthalmology side continue to grow double digit in the countries that we are now present in, in Europe.

Third, the portfolio also has a fit in other emerging markets for certain. Our team is also looking to see whether we can launch in some of the developed markets.

In Latin America and Southeast Asia, we have the potential of leveraging the Visufarma portfolio into these markets. Multiple areas of synergies that our team is working upon.

We remain confident that this is going to be a material step in enhancing our business in Europe as well as on the specialty front.

Sure, Vinita. The top line should comfortably cross, say, 100 million mark in 2 to 3 years, right, if all these factors play out well?

Vinita Gupta

Yes.

Okay. That's helpful.

You have the sales team and on-ground support all available with this business, or do you need to invest a few more there as well?

Vinita Gupta

No. Actually, it came with an excellent team on the commercial side, as well as marketing, and majority of the team we have onboarded into Lupin to be able to both build on the current ophthalmic model, but also expand Lupin's other therapy areas into these regions.

Okay. That's helpful.

My second question is on your settlement for Mirabegron with Astellas. You had one prepaid component, which I believe is sitting in fourth Q, four Q numbers.

On an ongoing basis, you will be paying per-unit cost, right? That will be part of the ongoing operating expense.

If you can clarify on that.

Ramesh Swaminathan

There are two parts to that. There is one element which, of course, will be captured as part of manufacturing, other expenses.

There's a second part which actually gets amortized over a period of time.

Okay. Any indication which will be the bigger component, whether it's part of operating expense or the one which is amortized?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Clearly, it really depends on the sales at this stage. The first component is actually variable, and the second is just an amortization spread over time.

Vinita Gupta

We have factored in the additional cost per unit in our gross margin going forward,

Ramesh Swaminathan

and

Vinita Gupta

the amortization of the 75 million will be in the next 2 years. Pretty much.

Okay. My last question is regarding one product which we earlier discussed, Dalbavancin.

Can you update on the status of that particular product?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Dalbavancin, Vinita.

Vinita Gupta

Sorry?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Dalbavancin. Update on Dalbavancin.

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. We expect to launch the Dalbavancin 505(b)(2).

We're expecting to launch it in fiscal year '27.

'27, okay. Okay.

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. This is a reiteration to request all the participations to raise the hands from the participants tab for more questions, please.

In the meanwhile, we'll take a 10-second break to have more hands and more tabs. Thank you so much.

Thank you so much for your patience. We can take the next question from Vivek Agarwal.

Thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions on biosimilars.

One is on Ranibizumab. How comfortable you are with the economics of this product?

Or if you look at the current market dynamics, right, the prescriptions have shifted to Aflibercept as a longer duration, and if you look at the existing or the current incumbents, biosimilars, they have dropped this product, right, from the market. What gives you confidence that this product is going to be a material product for you?

Thank you.

Vinita Gupta

We actually are seeing a good amount of traction with the FDA in getting a product to market. The other companies have had challenges in product supply, and we think that has been part of the reason why the product is out of the market.

Also, I think you're going to see companies relaunching Ranibizumab. We do believe that while part of the market has shifted into Aflibercept, there's still an opportunity in Ranibizumab.

Also for us, we have both the prefilled syringe as well as the vial, while majority of the competitors have vial only. We see also an opportunity for our product to be differentiated in the marketplace.

Understood. Thank you.

Is it possible for you to update on Pegfil on-body product? What is the current status, and what is the launch timeline for this product?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. We are pretty far along.

We should be able to file this fiscal year, and I know we have planned to launch it in fiscal year '29, but hopefully, we should be able to launch in fiscal year '28 itself.

I didn't get it. Basically, it's a FY28 launch?

Or

Vinita Gupta

FY29 launch, one of the two, depending on FDA approval.

Understood. You talked about, let's say, around four products in the biosimilar.

Which are the other two products if it is possible for you to highlight?

Vinita Gupta

Pegfilgrastim and Ranibizumab, the OBI, which, of course, is Pegfilgrastim, but a different dosage form, and Aflibercept, and the fifth one is Etanercept in '29.

Understood. Just again one more question on biosimilars in the next couple of years.

What kind of the revenues that you estimate from the sales of biosimilars only in the US?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. We haven't called out the actual revenues from biosimilars, but they're meaningful.

Each product is pretty meaningful in our P&L going forward. We really look at the biosimilars opportunity as a very very similar to our respiratory opportunity over the next 5 years.

Thank you. I have more questions.

We'll rejoin in the queue.

Operator

Thank you so much, Vivek. We'll take the next question from Shyam Mukherji.

Hi.

Operator

Shayon, you're audible, yes.

Thanks. One question, just clarification, Ramesh.

You mentioned revenue guidance high single digit. Is it in rupee terms, and what's the currency assumptions that you've made?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Oh no, if there is further depreciations rupee, obviously, there is a benefit that we would be taking in. What I am is at a time that we actually constituted the budget, which is about 3 months ago.

It is rupee terms.

Ramesh Swaminathan

It's rupee terms.

Understood. The other one is on, there has been some inflationary pressure because of freight and raw material given the Middle East crisis.

What's the annualized impact of the same that you're seeing on the P&L if situation were to remain at the current level?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Clearly, that is impacting everybody, and these are dark clouds on the horizon. When it comes to freight, for example, ocean freighting is about 15% higher.

Air freight is about 60% higher. There are, of course, issues in terms of raw material cost, availability of chemicals sometimes, solvent prices, and all of that.

We have estimated that, clearly, we are monitoring it on a very granular basis, and take appropriate action in terms of possible price increases as and when we think it is absolutely something that needs to be done.

Okay. Will you be able to quantify, Ramesh, what's the impact?

Ramesh Swaminathan

I don't want to do it at this stage.

Okay.

Ramesh Swaminathan

When we have actually reckoned the 25%, we have actually taken into account all of this as well. It's still too many moving parts at this stage.

Okay. Finally, just one question on your product filing in the US.

I think you mentioned about on-body product, but what about the respiratory products: Respimat, Ellipta, and Enbrel biosimilar? What's the timeline with respect to filing for this product, and when should we expect launch?

Vinita Gupta

Respimat is actually in the works right now and will be a current fiscal year filing. The other, Etanercept, also will be in the current fiscal year.

We pretty much have the entire dossier for Etanercept. There's very little work to be done to be able to file it.

There are material other products that we are planning to. Actually, for the US, we have 8 to 9 product filings in fiscal year '27 on the respiratory front.

Ellipta, Vinita, any timeline for that?

Vinita Gupta

Ellipta, we are still working on it. It's been challenging for us, but we continue to work on both Breo and Trelegy products.

Understood. Okay.

Thanks, and I'll join.

Vinita Gupta

Yes.

Operator

Thanks, Shyam. We'll take the next question from Kunal Randeria.

Hi. Good afternoon.

Sir, first question is on Semaglutide opportunity across emerging markets. Are there any particular markets that you would like to call out that can make a meaningful contribution in the next couple of years?

Nilesh Gupta

I think the big market for us is India. Obviously, we've already launched in India.

I think South Africa would be the other important market, Brazil as well through partnerships in markets like Canada and the like as well. These three markets will probably start it off for us.

Nilesh, would you like to maybe give more color on India obviously you have launched, but what about Brazil, Canada? Some timelines that you'd like to share?

Nilesh Gupta

South Africa also this year.

Vinita Gupta

This year.

Nilesh Gupta

Brazil also this year. Also

Vinita Gupta

Brazil, Canada should really be filing this year, launch hopefully next year.

Right. The fact is that you may not be among the first wave, will it still be meaningful?

Vinita Gupta

We think in the emerging markets where we have really built a market presence on the diabetes metabolic front, like I mentioned Brazil, with the Dapa launch and now Empa launch, we're really creating a good position in the metabolic space. We see a good opportunity even as a latecomer, and I think in the pure generic markets, it'll be tougher, but in the emerging markets, it should continue to be an attractive opportunity for us.

Sure. Sure.

Second question on biosimilars. I understand you'll have Pegfilgrastim and maybe Etanercept a few years down the line in the US, but the entry barrier now for biosimilars is going down, the cost is going down, I'm sure a lot more players would come in.

Do you maybe envisage a situation where the price erosion might be a lot steeper than what you're currently factoring in, let's say, by FY29, '30?

Vinita Gupta

I think unless there's a real material shift in the market model, we really see the new entrants bringing an advantage to the overall economics in the biosimilar segment. From our perspective, the first few products that we have, obviously, we've been working on these for 5-plus years.

As we look at the future pipeline, informed by the reducing hurdles from a regulatory perspective and easier go-to-market access in the US, also equally we're finding in Europe as well, there is a more efficient model, especially where country like Germany has started to tender biosimilar products as well. We see an opportunity for products where we are in the first wave and there are limited number of competitors.

Our focus from a pipeline perspective is really on products where we can be in the first wave, or limited number of competitors that can give us a unique positioning. We have a good positioning on the ophthalmology front beyond biosimilars with Visufarma and other products that we are planning to bring into the market.

We think it really enables us as a ophthalmic player to bring in both affordable biosimilars as well as innovative products. Beyond that, the other pipeline that we are investing in for the future is a very selective pipeline that we're going after.

Got it. Just how big is the biosimilar franchise as of now?

Vinita Gupta

It's franchise in terms of

From a revenue perspective.

Vinita Gupta

Right now,

Nilesh Gupta

about $50 million, but slated to

Ramesh Swaminathan

multiple times

Nilesh Gupta

this financial year itself.

Ramesh Swaminathan

Yes.

Yeah. Sorry, just to clarify, largely it's from Etanercept in Europe, and this would not be end-user sales, right?

It would be maybe a royalty or a profit share that you might be getting?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. It's through partners, primarily.

Okay. Got it.

Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Kunal. The next question is from Shashank Krishnakumar.

Hi.

Thanks for taking my question. The first one was on Spiriva.

Just wanted to check if they are hearing anything incrementally in terms of competition there, and whether our FY27 guidance sort of that in, any potential generic Spiriva? Yeah.

Vinita Gupta

We don't know for certain. We have been aware about some companies talking about the fact that they have filed products, but just given how long it takes to get these products right, we're not certain that we would see additional competition in fiscal year '27.

Secondly, the other expenses line, I think there was certain acquisition-related costs.

Vinita Gupta

Your voice is going in and out, actually. Can't hear you clearly.

Yeah. Is this better?

Vinita Gupta

Much better. Yeah.

The acquisition-related costs which you have alluded to within other expenses, was that a meaningful figure this quarter?

Nilesh Gupta

Acquisition costs?

Vinita Gupta

Are you talking We didn't

Ramesh Swaminathan

Yeah. Acquisition costs is also included, a portion of that.

Was that a meaningful figure in 4Q?

Ramesh Swaminathan

It's actually part of the overall cost. There are a host of things that actually goes into, as I said, other expenses this time around.

We have, in fact, the Mirabegron settlement, you've got forex, there's of course the higher component of R&D, and there's, of course, M&A expenditure also.

Got it. Just a last one on Ellipta.

Just wanted to check if the challenge is that we're facing, is it with respect to the device? I think one of our peers also recently entered into a partnership for the device.

Where exactly is the challenge, if you could sort of explain what is the hurdle in terms of the filing timeline?

Vinita Gupta

It is really to achieve the product PK. We believe that we've got the right device in place.

It's really the product PK, getting that right, and we're finding that the brand itself is fairly variable.

Okay. Thank you, and all the best.

Operator

Thank you so much. We'll take the next question from Shyam Srinivasan.

Yeah. Hi.

Good evening. Thank you for taking my question.

Just the first one on Semaglutide in India. How has the launch gone?

I think, Vinita, you mentioned top two, top three. Just what were expectations, maybe some of the dynamics, given a lot of investor interest, if you could just tell us how things have panned out?

Now we probably don't yet have April data, for example. Just if you could tell us what's been the experience, prescription behavior, the vials versus the pen debate, if you could double-click there, please.

Thank you.

Nilesh Gupta

Yeah. I think it's been a pretty solid launch, pretty much as good as expected or even better.

We've always expected to be a strong player given our cardiometabolic play. The product from Zydus is a unique pen, and I think that's differentiation in the market as well.

Our patient support program is pretty solid as well. Good start.

I think we're the number two company as a generic, and the number three product as a product itself. Good start.

Very early days, right? We're talking about 9 days of data, and next week we'll have data for April as well.

We've obviously had substantial increase in primary in the second month, but time will show. I think our goal is very clear: to be a top three player in this as generic Semaglutide, and I think we're well on track.

As far as device is concerned, I think the acceptance for the pen is pretty solid, and I'm glad that we're playing there.

Yeah. Nilesh, I remember in our earlier comments, we had talked about a ₹1,500 crore overall market, 50% with the [later?]

. Has the volume uptake surprised you guys?

Do you think there's a revision upwards in terms of Sema generic play, you think, or it's still a very early days?

Nilesh Gupta

With GLP-1s, you're safe to always tick it upwards. I think it's just too early to really predict long-term behavior, right?

You saw how quickly Mounjaro became the biggest product in India, and now it's flattened out, right? How important is a generic, how important is Mounjaro versus Semaglutide?

I think there are multiple things to play out. There's so many other products that are going to come along, as well.

Clearly, this is a pretty widely accepted therapy. The number of prescribers is significant.

The number of patients that have gone onto this is very material, as well. I think this is one of the biggest launches for the industry.

Got it. Thank you.

Just my last question, just again back on the margin guidance, right? We're going from 29% this year to 25%, let's assume.

Quarter four had some headwinds already, given that we had a settlement, and maybe some of it played through in Q4 as well. Is there a extra sprinkling of conservativeness in our margins, or you think during the year, there could be upside surprises as well?

Ramesh Swaminathan

No, we have reckoned that there could be some competition coming in for Tolvaptan and possibly for Mirabegron next year. That would actually, in some ways, impact our overall margins clearly.

Of course, as you would see, our R&D expenditure is slated to increase a bit. That is also being captured in the overall guidance.

Got it. Thank you, Ramesh.

All the best.

Operator

Thank you, Shyam. We'll take the next question from Vishal Manchanda.

Hi. Good evening.

On the Albuterol inhaler market, wanted to check whether you expect any adverse impact on account of the GSK launch. They're supposed to launch a green inhaler around third quarter of this financial year.

Do you think the other Albuterol inhalers on the market will see an adverse impact?

Vinita Gupta

We don't think so. We think that their product is really going to be a branded version of Ventolin.

We've been able to tell based on what we learn. We hope that it actually expands the market for Albuterol.

We are also ourselves working on the green propellant MDIs. We're looking forward to see how the launch goes, and we'll track it very closely.

Since you are working on a green propellant too, need to launch as a brand?

Vinita Gupta

It's very early to tell, but just given where things are, if we launch after the brand comes in, it will really be a generic green propellant product. If you look at the Ventolin product, it's not had any generic so far.

I think Cipla is the first approval. That market has been pretty much branded, and GSK has the opportunity of converting it into the new version.

Yeah. Another one on the inhaler side.

Are we planning to file Symbicort and Advair, or we don't intend to do those products?

Vinita Gupta

We do have Symbicort in our pipeline, and we have Advair HFA also in our pipeline.

HFA, okay.

Vinita Gupta

Yes.

Any filing timelines?

Vinita Gupta

Like I mentioned, we have nine products in the current fiscal year. It's a material year for us with all the work the team has done over the last couple of years.

We'll come back in the next quarter or so with the products and actual filing timelines.

Okay. Just another one on Risperdal Consta.

If you could share how the product is doing, and whether you intend to file other long-acting injectable products based on your know-how on Risperdal Consta?

Vinita Gupta

Yeah. The product has done well so far.

Actually, we've not been able to keep up with the demand. We manufacture the product at a CMO and have struggled to really ramp up.

The brand actually has had supply issues, as well. There has been an increased demand in the marketplace that we're trying to work hard to see how we can leverage our position.

Also, Teva has had supply issues with their supplier of the product as well. There's a real gap in the marketplace, which is a nice problem to have, and we're trying to see how we can best meet the incremental demand.

As far as the platform goes, while we worked first on a generic, as we looked at the potential of the platform, there are multiple innovative products where the platform can be very valuable. At this point in time, we have multiple products for other brands in the platform, and have a few conversations ongoing on potentially doing innovative product transactions with the platform.

You mean doing your own innovative products or kind of doing that as a CDMO partner?

Vinita Gupta

We have both. We have a couple of our own innovative products in the platform, as well as interest from partners to work with us on co-developing long-acting versions of their products.

Nilesh Gupta

I'll ask you to get back in queue. There's a bunch of people waiting, and maybe we should go a little quicker.

Thank you.

Nilesh Gupta

Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Vishal. Can we have Kunal Lakhan for the next question, please?

Or Vivek, you can come in, Vivek Agarwal, for the next question. Hello, Vivek, are you there?

Hello.

Operator

Yeah.

Yeah. Thanks for the question.

Just one clarification on the products Tolvaptan and Mirabegron. You talked about that Mirabegron competition possibly next year, if I heard right.

Vinita Gupta

That's right.

You're not expecting, let's say, in any additional competition in FY27 in this product?

Vinita Gupta

No, FY27 is next year for us.

Ramesh Swaminathan

This current fiscal.

Vinita Gupta

The current fiscal

Ramesh Swaminathan

is what he meant. Oh,

okay. Understood.

Just one question on the overall US business, right? We have done close to $1.3 billion of revenues this year, and then there are a lot of moving parts.

A couple of products will come down in FY27, and then we will see some kind of additional competition, additional erosion in FY28 as well. It would be helpful if you just give a ballpark number of US revenues for '27 and '28 to work with.

Thank you. Yeah.

Vinita Gupta

In the past, we've said that we should be able to sustain the billion-dollar-plus. At this point, we think that based on the competition that we foresee in products like Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, we should be able to get to a level, compared to the current year, where maybe it's a high single-digit or low double-digit erosion in terms of revenues.

That's, of course, a combination of the current products, and as well as new product launches. With our injectable launches, as well as with Pegfilgrastim, we expect to offset some of the erosion.

We expect our base business also to grow in the US.

Understood. If I heard correctly, right, in FY28, you are expecting that US business to be a billion-dollar-plus close to billion-dollar-plus, right?

Vinita Gupta

In FY27, we expect it to be a billion-dollar-plus.

Understood. Thank you.

That's from my side.

Operator

Thank you very much.

Ramesh Swaminathan

Last question? Sure.

Operator

We will take one more question, sir?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Yes, we can.

Operator

Sure. We will take the next question from Forum Parekh.

Forum, are you there?

Ramesh Swaminathan

Go ahead, Forum.

Operator

Hello. It's

Vinita Gupta

not audible.

Operator

No, yeah.

Ramesh Swaminathan

She's not All right, excuse.

Operator

We'll close.

Ramesh Swaminathan

We'll close it.

Vinita Gupta

Yeah.

Ramesh Swaminathan

Okay.

Operator

Thank you so much for all your questions, and most importantly, patience. We will now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.

Vinita Gupta

Thank you. Thank you, friends, for all your questions.

Hopefully, we've been able to answer all of them. Otherwise, we will take them offline.

As mentioned, we've been very pleased with the performance our team has been able to deliver in fiscal year '26, and continue to work hard to be able to exceed both our expectations as well as the market expectations in fiscal year '27 and beyond. Thank you again.

Ramesh Swaminathan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, ma'am. On behalf of Lupin Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you for joining us, and you may now exit the webinar. Thank you.