Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Premier Energies Q3 FY26 earnings conference call hosted by ICICI Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.
Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities Limited.
Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Mohit Kumar
Thank you, Huda. Good morning.
On behalf of ICICI Securities, I welcome you all to the Q3 FY26 earnings call of Premier Energies. Today, we have with us from the management: Mr.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja, Managing Director; Mr. Nand Kishore Khandelwal, Chief Financial Officer; Mr.
Vinay Rustagi, Senior Business Officer; and Mr. Sudhir Mula, Chief Strategy Officer and Whole-time Director.
We'll begin with the opening remarks from the management, which will be followed by Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Thank you, Mohit. Am I audible clearly to you?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Yes, sir. Please, sir, please.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
All right. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our Q3 FY26 earnings call.
I am Chiranjeev Saluja, Managing Director of Premier Energies, and I am joined today by my colleagues. I am pleased to say that the company has reported another set of record revenue and profit numbers.
Our lines are running consistently at best-in-industry utilization levels, and the order book remains healthy, giving us both top-line and bottom-line visibility. Let me talk about some key highlights of this quarter.
We have completed a brownfield expansion, increasing our cell and module capacity by 400 MW and 350 MW respectively. This expansion has been achieved with relatively low CapEx and shows our team's strong engineering capabilities.
Our 1.2 GW G12R TOPCon cell line has ramped up in relatively short time, currently operating at 80% utilization and expected to reach full utilization by February 2026. Similarly, we are working on improving efficiency from current levels of 25.2% to 25.8% by the end of this year using latest process technologies and know-how.
This experience will extremely be useful in launching operations of our new 7 GW TOPCon cell line. We are now excited and focused on commissioning and ramping up of our new cell and module lines progressively over the next four quarters.
Our 5.6 GW module line is set for completion in March '26, 4.8 GW cell line in June '26, followed by 2.2 GW of cell line in September '26. These capacities would make us India's largest and most integrated cell and module manufacturer, with total capacity of 10.6 GW and 11.1 GW respectively.
This would mark an inflection point in our growth journey. I am also pleased to share that work has also commenced on construction of our 10 GW ingot-wafer line in Naidupeta, Andhra Pradesh.
Our transformer acquisition was completed in December 2025. Transcon is performing very well, as seen in the YTD numbers, with total capacity expected to increase to 16.75 GVA by July 2026 and change in product mix towards more lucrative MV, HV, and EHV segments.
This business is expected to become a key growth contributor for us. Our Ksolare acquisition is also planned to be closed in the next 1 month.
Now, I would want to briefly talk about two major themes of interest to the investing community. First, the solar industry has achieved tremendous scale, growing at more than 50% annually over the last 2 years.
India is now the third-largest solar market in the world. This growth in demand is expected to continue notwithstanding issues like unsigned PPAs and transmission delays.
The reality is that we have a very large pipeline of signed PPAs, providing us strong demand visibilities over the next 3 years. The PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar market is seeing huge growth, with a record 2.7 million homes solarized in the last 18 months, and further 7.3 million installations expected over the next 24 months.
Other market segments like the KUSUM Scheme and open access market are also showing sustained increase in installations. Secondly, the cost environment is becoming more volatile, with some input costs rising sharply over the last few quarters.
We are able to manage this risk effectively through various measures like hedging, advance planning, strong supplier relationships, and passing incremental cost to customers. Going forward, we are confident that we will be able to compensate for any cost increases with our increasing scale and operating efficiencies.
To conclude, we have a very exciting growth opportunity with growing demand, continued support for Make in India policy, and our focused business strategy. Thank you.
We are now open for questions.
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.
Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
The first question is from the line of Nidhi Shah from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Nidhi Shah
Good morning, and thank you so much for taking my question. My first question is on depreciation.
This quarter, we've seen that depreciation has halved YoY, and it was only last year in the same quarter that we revised our depreciation policy. What can this decrease be attributed to?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Nidhi, good morning, and on your questions on depreciation, it generally depends on the industry policy where we depreciate our equipment over 5 years. In our case, we have taken an accelerated depreciation on our mono PERC lines.
As we speak today, our mono PERC lines are fully depreciated, and you will see further depreciation numbers come up once the new lines get commissioned. I would like also Vinay to share some views on the depreciation and the past numbers.
Yeah.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Sure.
Hi, Nidhi. I think basically what has happened is that we did see an increase in depreciation over the last 3 quarters because of accelerated depreciation on our old cell and module lines.
Now that came to an end in the last quarter. What you're seeing in this quarter is only the depreciation on our new lines which got operational earlier in the middle of last year.
Going forward, you will see a more, I would say, a sustainable and consistent depreciation trend in line with our new assets coming online this year, and the variability will be very less going forward.
Nidhi Shah
Just to clarify, the new lines, they are being depreciated on a 5-year basis, fit to industry standards, or will that also be accelerated?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Yes. The industry standard is basically depreciating all these assets within 5 years, which is what we follow.
Having said that, we do continue to monitor the market and the technology trends. If we feel that because of any of these reasons there is a earlier phaseout expected, we then tend to undertake accelerated depreciation to transition us to the new technologies.
Right.
Nidhi Shah
My next question would be on what is the progress on the capacity addition on the aluminum frames side? Where are we on that, and what is the CapEx that was undertaken in the first 9 months of this year?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
On the aluminum front, the land is already acquired, Nidhi, and the equipment order has been placed. The total CapEx on aluminum is going to be 260 crores, and we expect commissioning by December 2026.
All right.
Nidhi Shah
What is the total CapEx that we undertook in the first 9 months across all?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
You mean the past 9 months you're talking about? Yeah.
Please go ahead.
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Yeah. The total CapEx was about 750 crores.
That is in relation to our new cell and module lines which are coming up in Seetharampur and Naidupeta. In addition to that, we have also paid, like we have announced, 250 crore rupees to Transcon for the first tranche of our acquisition.
Nidhi Shah
All right. Those were my questions.
Thank you so much.
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raman KV from Sequent Investments.
Please go ahead.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Hello, sir. Can you hear me?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes. Good morning.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Sir, yeah, good morning, sir. Congratulation on a good set of numbers.
Sir, my question is with respect to Transcon. We have a order book of 190 crores in Transcon.
What will be the execution cycle, one is that, and post the capacity expansion to 16.75 GVA by July 2026, at optimum utilization, how much revenue can we do from this Transcon?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. Hi.
The typical manufacturing and order turnaround time for transformers is about 4 to 5 months for the low-voltage and inverter duty transformers. Basically, you can see that from the total order book vis-a-vis the total expected annual sales of the company.
In addition, going forward, the company is now venturing into the larger, higher value-added transformers, there the execution cycle will be slightly longer. Overall, the transformer business execution and progress is very, very strong, and we're hoping that the company will touch a top-line of over 1,000 crore rupees in the next 2 to 2.5 years.
Raman Venkata Kerti
1,000 crore top-line from only Transcon, right? Hello?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
That's right. Transformers only.
Yes.
Raman Venkata Kerti
With the current capacity or this is including the additional capacity?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
With the current and the proposed capacity. See, what happens is the larger transformers, there is a reasonably, I would say, 6 to 18-month time period for certifications and winning new orders and deliveries of those orders for the customers.
The ramp-up of the new lines will happen over a period of about 2 to 3 years. That is why I'm saying that the top-line will grow to about 1,000 crore rupees-plus by FY28.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Understood, sir. Sir, just a follow-up on this.
As you mentioned that we are venturing into larger, heavy-duty, and high value-added segment in the transformers, do we have necessary approvals?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
All the expansion work
Raman Venkata Kerti
Customer approvals
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Okay.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
You mean certifications Yeah. That is work in progress.
Yes.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Do you have a timeline by when you will be receive the necessary certifications for?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
By July '26, we're expecting the plant to be commissioned. It will take about 6 months post-July '26 for us to get certifications in a progressive manner.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Understood, sir. Sir, I just want to understand the 10 GW ingot-wafer line, what's the total CapEx spent on this and by when are you expecting it to be commissioned?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Yeah. For the 10 GW ingot wafers, the total expected CapEx is around 5,900 crores.
We are still waiting for the final government announcement for ALMM 3, as you probably know. What we have announced so far is the first phase of 5 GW implementation expected to be completed by December next year.
For the second 5 GW phase, we would expect that to be completed in December '28. Like I said, we're still waiting for the final announcement and may tweak our plans to suit the market growth.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. Just to add, in the meantime, the land is acquired, the designing work is started, and the building construction work also has started.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Understood, sir. Sir, my final question is with respect to are we venturing into any BESS project, or doing CapEx related to BESS product?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. We've already announced that on BESS, we are setting up a cell-to-pack and a containerized solution line.
The land for this also has been acquired, and the factory construction started. We have not announced getting into BESS cell manufacturing as on today.
We would want to wait for more clarity from Government of India. They have come up with draft guidelines on localization.
Once we get clarity on that, then we would look at further backward integration.
Raman Venkata Kerti
What's the total CapEx spend will be spending on this, and what will be the capacity?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
It's 280 crores, and the capacity is going to be 6 GWh, first phase.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Sir, this is just an assembly line, right?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
It is a cell-to-pack and containerized solution assembly and a final solution kind of line where we would give containerized solutions to our customers. As I said, that core manufacturing of cell is something we want to go slow on until we get clarity on ALMM kind of protection from Government of India.
As on today, it doesn't make sense for us to invest on backward integration because the market is still now open to China.
Raman Venkata Kerti
Understood, sir. Understood.
Thank you. Thank you, sir.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Balasubramanian from Arihant Capital.
Please go ahead. Sir, are you there?
As there is no response, I am taking the next question from the line of Praveen Sahay from PL Capital. Please go ahead.
Praveen Sahay
Yeah. Hi, sir.
Thank you for opportunity. Can you give a detail related to the order book of the module and cell bifurcation is there?
How is in the model, DCR order book or non-DCR, if you can give some color on that?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. Hi.
Good morning. Our order book, as we had shared, is, as we speak, about 9.4 GW, and it is a total order value of 13,723 crores, which is going into deliveries up to FY28.
Now we have given the breakup on revenue-wise that the order book of cells is about 6,800-odd crores and modules is about close to 7,000 crores. Now we would also like to clarify here that cell is DCR.
When we say module, it is a mix of DCR and non-DCR both. We evaluate, and we consistently monitor how many cells need to be sold and how many need to go into our own production.
Our module mix is DCR, non-DCR put together. Also like to clarify that the nature of this business is such that every quarter, you have an order book and you have customers whom you're selling to, and there is a mix of DCR and non-DCR of sales which happen every quarter.
Now it is very difficult to estimate accurately what your DCR or non-DCR sale would be in a given quarter because it depends on various factors like customer offtake, customer site readiness. That is the reason that you would see a very minimal tolerance of about 4% to 5% in the overall revenue assumption versus achieved is because if I have slightly higher non-DCR sale in a particular quarter, then my revenue would slightly come down, and so would be EBITDA numbers.
Now what market needs to understand or investors need to understand is that this should be looked upon on a yearly basis and not on a quarter-on-quarter basis because this is the nature of the business and it is impossible to predict what would be your product mix at a 100% accurate level. I think am I clear to your question
Praveen Sahay
Yeah. No, it's fine, sir.
Just on the another question, that's on the cell cost. If you can give some color on own-manufactured cell, how is the costing and versus outside you are procuring?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
No. When we procure cells from China, it's a totally different thing.
It's not made in India, difficult to compare a China product and a domestically manufactured cell. For confidentiality reasons, we cannot disclose our costing for cell manufacturing.
Praveen Sahay
Okay. Okay.
The lastly, sir, if you can share the CapEx for a entire 26, how much is the total CapEx, and '27, how much is the planned for club together of everything, cell, module, ingot, even the BESS?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Yeah. For the current calendar year, our total CapEx is about 3,000 crore rupees.
Part of this is for the new cell and module lines coming in Naidupeta and Seetharampur. In addition to that, we will also incur remaining CapEx for the Transcon and the Ksolare acquisitions, plus about 280 crore rupees for the BESS project and the aluminum project.
Praveen Sahay
Okay. Okay.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. I'll come in the queue.
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. A request to all participants, please restrict your questions to two questions per participant.
For more questions, please rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Subramanian Yadav from SBI Life Insurance.
Please go ahead.
Subramanian Yadav
Thanks, sir, for taking my question. Just wanted to understand why our module utilization is flattish QoQ.
Is there any delay from the client side, or how is the order book composition maybe near-term, medium-term, and long-term, if you can give some flavor on that?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Sorry, Mr. Subrahmanyam.
Your voice is not very clear. Could you repeat the question again, please?
Subramanian Yadav
Yeah. Okay.
Just wanted to understand the color on the order book. How is the execution period in the order book, maybe if you can say how much is medium-term and near-term or maybe long-term, kind of a breakup?
Because what we have seen is module utilization is lower this quarter, maybe flattish if you can say QoQ. Is there a delay from the client side for the execution, or is there any other issue in that?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Sure. Let me first address your question on the utilization.
On module utilization, we have consistently been between 75% to 80%, and on cell, we have consistently been about close to 90%, except for when our 1.2 GW TOPCon cell line got commissioned. Now these are best-in-class numbers in industry.
When you compare on utilization, we are already at peak of utilization, and it's not possible to produce more until we expand. As I said, our next four quarters is going to be the inflection point.
Now coming to the order book is up to Q4 FY28. If you look at the order book, we have all the order books which we disclose are all signed, confirmed with advances received.
These are not verbal order book or pipeline which we disclose. These are order books which are signed and are up to FY2028.
We are not seeing any delay from offtakers in terms of supplies. It's just that the mix sometimes gets delayed by about 1 or 2 weeks, and if that happens in the last month of the quarter, then that would reflect in that particular quarter, but come back in the next quarter.
That depends on customer offtake in terms of their site readiness, their payment receivables from the government departments they sell to. There are a lot of factors which play out.
Subramanian Yadav
Okay. Understood, sir.
Sir, also just a clarity on the inventory. Maybe at the end of Q2, we had some inventory due to the GST-related issue.
We said some inventory was piled up. Is that completely liquidated now, or how is it the situation?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes. The inventory which was carried forward in September 30th has been fully liquidated.
As I said earlier, that is not showing in the revenue numbers this quarter because this quarter, we had slightly higher non-DCR sales compared to DCR sales, and that was because of various issues with the customers in terms of their receivables and their delay in pickup, which is now become very positive. In this last quarter, we have an unprecedented demand for DCR as against non-DCR.
This keeps changing quarter on quarter. What happens is that a tolerance of about 4% to 5% because of this DCR, non-DCR mix is something which we have to live with and it is the nature of the business.
Subramanian Yadav
Understood, sir. Understood.
Thank you, sir. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Arora from Axis Mutual Fund.
Please go ahead.
Nitin Arora
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my question.
First thing on your slide on the silver, what you have put in your presentation, can you dwell a little bit because, as you stated, that a lot of increase in the commodity prices. The street was also expecting a big decline in gross margins for cell companies in this quarter, which we didn't see so far, whosoever has reported.
Do you see this gross margin pressure coming up? Because the chart what you have shown is showing a very sharp reduction in silver, number one.
Number two, what is our hedging policy? Because when I look at your other income YoY, it's down.
A similar kind of an income I'm seeing in your other comprehensive income, which is a very big number. Is it because of the hedging policy?
If you can take first question on these two aspects.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. Thank you, Nitin.
On the hedging policy, yes, we have in this quarter adopted a hedging policy, and you will not see any hedging income come in other income. It is only going to be in other comprehensive income.
Once it is realized, it'll go and sit in our COGS, right? Now if you look at our last quarter other income, it was forex hedge and interest earned on fixed deposits, which were pure funds which were sitting with us in our bank account.
Now most of the CapEx funds have been utilized, and hence you see a drop in the other income. The silver hedging, which is the unrealized gain, as we speak today, is sitting in the other comprehensive income, and as and when we realize it, it'll come and sit in the COGS.
Nitin Arora
I got it. Yeah.
How do you see gross margin? Do you see any impact would be coming in your gross margin, or you think because the contribution to the mono PERC and TOPCon is pretty less and you are hedged?
Because we've seen few Chinese companies who has reported, their other income is higher than their EBITDA because of hedging. I'm talking about LONGi and all in this quarter.
Can you throw some light on your trajectory for the gross margin because of this?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. As you have seen in our results which we have declared yesterday, there has not been any reduction in other income as was estimated due to silver, and this is because we have a very strong hedging policy and we have almost 6 months of silver which is hedged.
Then if you look at also being an industry leader for the last 30 years in this industry and close to 15 years in cell manufacturing, we have shown on our investor presentation that as technology moved from multicrystalline to TOPCon and the wafer size has increased from 125 to 182 x 210, the consumption of silver has dropped by 68% in 5 years. With the advanced technology process adoption which our team is doing in our plants, we expect a further reduction of 30%.
Then we are in advanced stages with our suppliers of silver paste who are almost ready with copper instead of silver, and we're expecting that to be coming up soon, maybe in the next few quarters. If you look at our operational efficiency because of scale, what we will be getting into with a 7 GW cell line, we don't see any erosion on margin.
Nitin Arora
Got it. Sir, just on the other aspect of demand, because when we look at your order book and your cell capacity, it looks like that you're almost sold more than half of your cell capacity which you're coming up.
Going by the way you explained that in any quarter non-DCR could be lower and DCR could be higher, but going forward, how we should build in now the order intake? Because you must be now planning to take orders for FY28 second half or, let's say, 9 months because if we look at the maths, and you can correct me, you're already now sold out for the next 15 months.
Can you throw some light segment-wise how's the inquiry pipeline? Because what we hear from the street and a lot of people that there will be a big slowdown that will happen, but when we look at all the renewable companies, every quarter, order intake has been pretty steady.
Can you throw some light segment-wise how's the inquiry pipeline across IPPs, KUSUM? There is KUSUM-C now also, which is becoming very big.
If you can take that aspect.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Sure. Let me first clarify to you that our cell capacities are not 50% sold out.
They are almost 90% sold out. We are at 3.2 GW, and we have done a 400 MW expansion, which is 3.6 GW as we speak today.
Even if you calculate at 90%, it's about a 3 GW of production, 3 to 3.2 GW. Then the cell lines which are coming up in June and September, you would just get about one quarter and one nine one quarter of revenue.
If you calculate that and you look at our 6,800 crores of our cell order book, we are almost sold out. We do not have much capacity to sell, and that is the reason why we took up this 400 MW of debottlenecking at lowest ever CapEx of 101 crores, which was a major achievement by our team to get this expansion up and running.
That is on the order book. The second point of yours that there is a demand, we can very easily sign up orders for the next 5 years for cell orders from existing module manufacturers.
We do not have any reason to do that because if we do not get substantial advance and the order is not a committed order book, it would again not come into our order book because it would be a framework agreement. That is the reason why we are not going very aggressively, although we can sell our cell capacities for the next 3 years.
Now if you look at capacities coming up in India, if you look at certain reports which had come even as early as January '25, I remember seeing a report from Kotak which said that they estimated FY26 54 GW of cell capacity would be up and running in India. As we speak today, we are way below 30 GW.
When you look at utilization, we are way below actual production of 22, 23 GW. Now we have been telling consistently that cell business is high technology, difficult to run, strong expertise needed in this manufacturing process.
It is not as simple as setting up a cell line and running it. It takes time.
This has been proven in the last 14 months that not as much capacity has come up as was predicted. I'll leave it to Vinay to talk about the demand and the supply side.
I think Vinay may be like to add here.
Vinay Rustagi
Sure. Hi, Nitin.
I think we've been at pains to basically explain and elaborate that the demand environment continues to be very strong. We see great momentum in every single segment in the market, and we are seeing that in our discussion pipeline as well.
In fact, our discussion pipeline is at the highest number of all times, and there's a very good, healthy mix across IPPs, EPCs, both utility-scale as well as the corporate market and the KUSUM market. There is a very healthy discussion pipeline, and the only reason we are not able to take more orders is because, one, obviously, we are kind of heavily sold out over the next, particularly 6 to 12 months, and we don't have capacities matching some of the project requirements.
In general, we want to kind of again kind of take the pains to reiterate that the demand environment remains very strong in the sector.
Nitin Arora
Sure. Just lastly from my side, given
Operator
Sorry to interrupt,
Nitin Arora
Mr. Arora.
Can
Operator
you please rejoin the queue?
Nitin Arora
Sure, I will. Thank you.
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bharani from AMBIT Capital.
Please go ahead.
Good morning. Am I audible?
Vinay Rustagi
Yes, Bharani. Hi.
Yeah. Good morning.
Can you throw some light on how much in watts did we sell this quarter in modules and cells?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. We don't release the actual sales number or the mix between cell and module, but you've seen the production numbers.
Production has been quite steady on the module side and has increased by about 86 MW for the cell business.
Okay. How much would be the realization on cells for us right now?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Realization for the cell business is pretty steady in line with the previous few quarters. The market prices are hovering at around 14 to 14.5 cents, depending on size and delivery timeline.
How about our module realization, both DCR and non-DCR?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
For the module prices, the prices are very, very volatile given that the cost environment, there are so many changes going on. We saw, I would say, about over the last 6 to 9 months, there was a compression in the non-DCR market because of strong competition.
Then over the last 1 or 2 months, prices have started going up as we need to pass on our increased costs to the customers. The non-DCR market prices are back to about, I would say, 16.5 to 17 cents, which is an increase of almost 2 cents in the last 1 month alone.
The DCR prices are at about 23 to 24 cents.
Okay. Your voice was breaking.
I will take it off-line. My last question is on the composition of selling cost in your BOM for module and how much has it increased because of the silver price increase, and how are we passing it on?
What percentage of our order book is on a pass-through mechanism?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
If you look at our order book, close to about modules, and if you look at the non-DCR business, since it is cell from China, everything is pass-through. There is no effect of silver contribution on our non-DCR.
On DCR orders, as I shared with Nitin who asked the last question, that we are working on reduction of silver consumption. We've also shown that on the investor PPT that what has been reduction of silver over the last 5 years and what is the plan going forward.
Your voice was breaking. If I summarize, you're telling your non-DCR is on a full pass-through basis, and the DCR, you're working on reduction of silver consumption.
As That's right.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Reduction consumption and also hedging of silver.
Right. How much would be the percentage cost in BOM for say manufacturing a module right now, and how much was it say maybe 6 months back?
Vinay Rustagi
If I'm giving you broad industry data, the total silver cost over the last 1 year on a per-watt basis has gone up from about 1 cent to about 2.5 to 2.7 cents. Basically, there's a net increase of about 1.5 to 1.7 cents on a per-watt basis.
Having said that, there is no impact on our current business because for our current operations and, I would say, up to about 6 months from now, we already have either sufficient stock in place or we have a hedging proposition in place. There is no impact on our business over the short run.
I think going beyond that, we are basically hoping to compensate some of the cost increase by changes in the BOM approach, as Chiranjeev outlined earlier, more effective hedging, more, I would say, detailed negotiations with the suppliers, as well as passing on some of the cost increase to our customers. Overall, net, I would say there is very little impact because of the silver cost increase on our margins or profitability.
Okay. Sure.
I will come back in the queue. Thanks.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kunal Shah from DAM Capital.
Please go ahead.
Kunal Shah
Yeah. Hi, sir.
One on the order book of 137 billion now, how much of this would be converted to revenues during FY27? Simple question here is factoring in all the commodity inflation or whatever is going on, how would the spreads look like on the execution of this order book versus the current spreads?
Vinay Rustagi
Kunal, hi. This is Vinay.
We can't give exact numbers, but I would say about 70% to 75% of our total order book is due for execution over the next 12 months. Sorry, your second question was?
Kunal Shah
Second was in terms of execution of this order book, let's say factoring in all the commodity inflation, how would the spreads look like on the execution of this book versus the current spreads?
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Look, in terms of the increase in various commodity prices, silver is by far the biggest and the most notable increase.
If you look at other commodities, the major consumption or expense comes from glass where there is no impact, on aluminum frames where there is no material impact. There are some monthly variations, but if I look at the overall cost trend over the last 6 months or even 12 months, there is no major impact from any of these commodity price increases.
Whatever any residual impact is from any other cost increases, I would say, is very minimal and is easily compensated by improvement in our scale and efficiency of the overall business. To answer your question, net-net, we expect very minimal, if any, impact on profitability because of increases in any of these material costs.
Kunal Shah
Understood. This is helpful.
Secondly, on the efficiencies that you briefly mentioned about increasing from 25.2% to 25.8%, now these levels are unheard-of. Are we aiming to sort of implement and execute this over the entire TOPCon line, let's say 7 plus 1.2 GW?
Also, do you see this becoming a big competitive edge vis-a-vis peers? Are we attempting to improve this through our own in-house R&D team, or there is some tie-up?
If you could just sort of highlight more on that.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. The efficiency levels we are talking about are unheard-of in India, but in China, these are pretty normal that they're talking about these kind of efficiencies.
Premier as a company has always maintained leadership position in all areas of cell manufacturing, be it execution, be it CapEx cost at which we set up our cell lines, and efficiency levels which we achieve, and also the ramp-up time, which we have been continuously improving. We will be deploying all these high-end technology process adoption on our total 8.2 GW of TOPCon cell line.
It's already getting adopted in the 1.2 GW, and of course it will be replicated in the 7 GW TOPCon cell line.
Kunal Shah
Understood, sir. This is all through our in-house R&D team, right?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes, it's all through our in-house R&D team.
Kunal Shah
Understood. Lastly, if I may, when it comes to the order book building during the FY27 as a year, in your estimate or guestimate, what would be the demand size for where the domestic cells would be required and what are the key segments driving the growth?
I think you briefly mentioned on the segments, but if you could just quantify on the demand size that you're looking at during FY27, which will become order inflows for us. Thank you.
Vinay Rustagi
Hi. For FY27, the demand for the DCR market is basically expected to come from the residential rooftop solar scheme, where we expect installations of about 10 GW; KUSUM Scheme, where on a conservative, we would estimate installations of about between 5 to 7 GW; and the open access and the private rooftop market.
Now open access, if you see what has happened in the last 1 year, we see a record capacity addition of about 11 GW in AC terms, so that equates to about 16 GW of DC demand. Across all these three markets, we would expect the demand to be about 30 GW-plus for the DCR market in FY27.
Kunal Shah
Understood. Versus which, the current capacity is roughly 24 GW as per your presentation, right?
Vinay Rustagi
Yes. That is the current capacity.
I think the more relevant number is the actual production number, and the current run rate of production, as I'm sure you're monitoring, is only about 20 to 21 GW in annualized terms.
Kunal Shah
Understood. This is very helpful, sir.
Thank you so much.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish from InvestQ PMS.
Please go ahead.
Yeah. My questions were mostly related to the industry demand-supply which you just addressed.
Sir, is it possible to further take it maybe because most of the players would have already announced a lot of capacities. How much do you expect to commission based on your experience?
Because as you said in the initial remarks that the actual capacities that come on the ground are pretty low versus what the market expects. Is it possible to take it forward maybe till FY28 kind of scenario versus the demand also, because you said that the demand is around 30, I think.
How does that pan out?
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Hi, Ashish.
In terms of the supply, look, I think there have been total announcements by something like 45 to 50 companies. If I add up all the nameplate announcements, they add up to something like 200 GW.
The fact of the matter is that there is a very strong discipline being exercised by both equity investors as well as lenders. As I'm sure you've seen even the government advisory to the banks and the financial institutions to not fund any overcapacity in the sector.
Chiranjeev already mentioned that last year, there was an expectation that by the end of FY26, there would be operational cell capacity of 54 GW, which the reality is that will be somewhere between 27 to 30 GW. Taking the reality, which is the financial discipline exercised by the investors plus the time that it takes to execute these capacities and then finally ramp up production, the actual number, we believe, will be far, far short of all these nameplate announcements.
In fact, we already see on the ground that some people have been calling off their investment plans, and some people are even looking to exit the sector or trying to find a bigger investor for acquisition. It is difficult to say as to what the exact number will be, but we expect the number to be not very north of the expected demand.
On the demand side, we are saying that FY26 should end with a total market demand, including the DCR and the non-DCR components, of more than 50 GW annualized. By FY28, we would expect that demand to grow to about 60 to 65 GW.
That is the overall demand-supply. I think I want to also add a little bit of context into this cell nameplate capacities.
One, even if some of the capacities come up, the actual production number is expected to lag quite significantly because of the time that it takes for all the new lines to ramp up, stabilize, and achieve the right efficiencies. Second, there's as much as 13 GW of all the mono PERC capacity, which will need to be eventually taken out over the next 1 to 2 years or be upgraded to TOPCon.
We believe that, again, there'll be moderation in that capacity. Finally, we've always maintained that with the implementation of ALMM 2, all the focus of the market and the profit pool is basically shifting from the module to the cell business.
With the implementation of ALMM 3, the same effect will basically move from cell to the upstream ingot and wafer business. Overall, our assessment is that the cell market is expected to be in much more demand-supply balance than projected by many of the analysts, and the focus of the business in terms of scale, investment, and profitability will, in any case, shift towards ingots and wafers over the next 3 years.
Right. Sir, I think you mentioned the production numbers also.
What is the supply in the market? If you could repeat that, FY26, you said some number as to what the supply is likely to be from the cell side.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. In the current
FY27 maybe, what you think?
Vinay Rustagi
In the current year, the current run rates of production are about 1,600-odd MW, which equates to about 20 GW of production for the full year.
Right.
Vinay Rustagi
For next year, it remains to be seen which lines actually come up. Obviously, our lines are due for completion between June and September.
Bear in mind that all new lines do take from 6 months to as long as 18 months to fully stabilize and start running. The expected production volume will really depend on the timeline of many of these new lines which are expected to be commissioned in the next year.
Roughly, you don't see FY27 there will be still short supply versus the demand? That's what would be the assumption?
Vinay Rustagi
That's correct. Like I said earlier, the total demand in the year is expected to increase to about 30 GW-plus, which compares with something like 15 to 18 GW this year, because bulk of the increase is basically going to come from, one, increase in the residential rooftop installations, and second, implementation of ALMM 2 for private rooftop and open access markets.
With the increase in demand, we don't expect any likelihood of oversupply given the expected pace of capacity addition and ramp-up in the coming year.
Sure. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chandan from Rajgarhia Industries Private Limited.
Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi.
My question is, last quarter, we discussed about the potential of the next quarter, for say Q3, in which we discussed about three things. One is that GST change, because of that, some orders got on hold and was supposed to be delivered in Q3.
Similarly, we talked about rain. Due to rain, the inventory piled up, and that was supposed to be liquidated in Q3.
Then, obviously, order book was substantially grown in the last quarter. What do we see in this quarter?
A revenue jump of 5%, which I don't see is substantially growth considering those three reasons which was mentioned in the last quarter. If we can get some thoughts around that, that would be really helpful.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. Mr.
Chandan, the material or the inventory which was carried forward from last quarter to this quarter has been dispatched, sold to the respective customers. Now to answer your question on revenue, I would like to make it a little bit more clearer that when we sell a non-DCR module to a customer, when you look at the prevailing pricing levels, it is approximately around 1.4 to 1.5 crores per megawatt at which we sell these modules.
When we sell a DCR modules, the pricing is around 2.2 to 2.3 crores per megawatt. Now in this quarter, from October to December, my non-DCR sales have gone up because my customer sites were ready and my DCR sales had a slight dip because most of my customers had realizations to recover or to get from the projects they had supplied DCR modules into various programs.
Now this mix, if it moved by, let's say, 3% or 4%, this is what you're seeing in the revenue numbers. There is no impact on margins because the DCR orders which we executed in this quarter were contracts which were signed much earlier and had higher margins.
Every quarter, this is the nature of the business that if you have slightly higher non-DCR business, your revenue will not really show up, but your margins are protected. If you had a higher DCR business, then your revenues will go up.
That is the reason that you're seeing that addition.
Vinay Rustagi
I think just quickly on your point about the order book, see, like we've been saying, a lot of our production over the next year is already sold out. Changes in the order book do tend to be lumpy, it is very natural to see big orders in one quarter followed by slight decrease in the next quarter.
Our discussion pipeline remains very strong, and we will continue to see good order inflow in line with the growth of the business.
Got it. That's it.
Thanks from my side.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri from MK Global.
Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, sir.
I have just one question. Can you throw some color on the aluminum frame market in India in terms of what is the demand, domestic production, and imports currently?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
The challenge on the aluminum industry in India is that you've got enough aluminum manufacturing, but the challenge is on the anodizing side. There's not enough anodizing facilities available in India for supplying aluminum frames.
As of now, there are enough and more aluminum profile manufacturers, but because of anodizing, there is a from China in spite of the duty which has been imposed by Government of India.
What should be the domestic production versus imports currently? In gigawatt terms?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
It's phenomenally high. If you talk of aluminum profile manufacturing in India and demand in India is, let's say, 50 GW, the manufacturing is much, much more than that.
The problem is in the anodizing. In the anodizing, there's not enough capacity.
Anodizing will be how much then? Anodizing capacity in India?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
That would be maybe 20% of India's demand.
Remaining everything is imported from China?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
As we speak. A lot of players, including us, have announced highly automated aluminum profile and anodizing plants, and we expect in the next 18 to 24 months, India will be self-sufficient on anodizing to cater to the demand of the domestic industry.
So 50 GW of module demand will be largely satisfied from domestic sources in the next 2 years. That's what you are saying, right?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes.
Okay. Thank you so much, and all the best, sir.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prakhar from Ambit.
Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. Thanks for
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
taking my
question. When we mentioned, let's say, 30, we are already, as we know through our order book, that we are already more than 90% booked in terms of cell capacity.
Now when I see the demand drivers in, let's say, FY27, residential rooftop, KUSUM, etc., I believe these are more distribution-led businesses where you sell over the counter. Are we selling our cells to some of the, maybe OEMs, etc., or maybe some of the other companies who will then sell in the residential or KUSUM market?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes. The cells which we sell to are to domestic module manufacturers who would buy these cells from us and make modules which would go into residential, PM Surya Ghar, or also into KUSUM Schemes.
The order book which we show, we do not take into account our own retail sales, which is close to about 0.5 GW every year. It's about 1,000 crores of revenue, which we not take in our order book because this is the retail market.
The order which we get every quarter, a lot of the orders are also spot orders or orders with a short-term delivery period.
Right. Sir, my question linked to this is that given our distribution network also, very strong distribution network, why can't we directly sell our own DCR modules in this market given great demand in KUSUM, residential rooftop?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
The residential rooftop program depends a lot on the retail network which you have. We give cells to certain module manufacturers who are very strong brands in the retail segment.
We also do OEM for certain customers of ours. You have companies which are in the retail segment selling not just solar panels, but selling electrical appliances, cables, home solutions.
They have a very, very large network. That is why we also support those markets through these channel sales partners.
Okay. Sir, the second question, very quick one, when we say 7 GW capacity addition, what type of line is it?
G12R or G12? Just to understand what would be the effective output available for us given right now the demand mostly would be maybe M10 or gradually it will be G12Rs.
What is the effective capacity of the 7 GW?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
We at Premier were the first ones, and as we speak today, there are only two companies in India which are manufacturing G12R cells, and that is Adani and us. We were early movers for G12R.
If you look at China, almost 80% to 90% of China market has moved to G12R, and making M10 is not economical today. All players which are in the cell manufacturing, all new lines will come up with G12R or G12, and the existing players would have to in any case upgrade to G12R, which would mean a dip in production levels and again getting the line back into peak efficiency of about 4 to 4 to 6 months.
I think most of the customers are booked on orders of DCR, and at the moment, they do not have the time to upgrade, but gradually they would have to. Our 7 GW line is a G12R line, and even the TOPCon which is operational is G12R.
90.
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
Please go ahead.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Sure, Vinay.
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
No, I was just saying that, currently, basically the rooftop market and the KUSUM market does not make too much distinction between G12R or M10. From next year onwards or this year onwards, when ALMM 2 is set in place, there's a large institutional market which will start procuring DCR modules.
That is the open access and the private rooftop market. There we expect most customers to prefer G12R over M10.
Understood. Effectively, we will be 90%, 95% of the 7 GW would be available for sale?
Nand Kishore Khandelwal
That's right. Yes.
Understood. Those were all my questions.
Thank you so much. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Mahawar from UBS.
Please go ahead.
Amit Mahawar
Yeah. Sir, congratulations on stable results.
Just one question, and you've touched upon this in the previous question, Operator:
Operator
Sir, you are sounding little distant, Mr. Amit.
Can you please sound a little louder?
Amit Mahawar
Is it okay now?
Operator
Better now. Please continue.
Amit Mahawar
Yeah. Sir, see, we have a very quicker transition to new technologies in a very short span, but a lot of companies take time to ramp up cell.
A large part of industry is still planning subscale capacity on cell. Then you have China anti-involution which is jacking up the price for the end plants manufacturing.
What is the level below which the industry profitability, maybe in gross margins and EBITDA margins indicator, you think beyond '28, '29 it is unviable for people because we can very clearly see accelerated phasing off of manufacturing plants had to be done, and we saw that in China also. That's the first question, sir.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. Let's address this question in two kind of logics.
One is, yes, China has close to about 1,500 GW of capacity, which is almost 3 times world demand, and a lot of plants in China will close down. Then let's talk about affordability.
If you're talking about affordability, solar is the cheapest source of energy today. If the prices are now coming up because of the anti-involution policy in China and this is pass-through to customers, these were the prices which were prevailing in the market just about 6 to 8 months back.
It's just that the prices dropped, there was a two or three quarters of opportunity which customers had where prices dropped and China would not continue to bleed. Even if prices come back and they're passed on to customers and even if module prices go back to, let's say, 17 cents or 18 cents per watt from 14 or 15 they were in about a month or two ago, these prices were prevailing in the market just 6 to 8 months ago.
We don't see a major issue there. I think Vinay wants to add something.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Hi, Amit.
I think if you look at slide number 18 in our presentation, we have basically said how we compare against many of the newer players who are entering the segment. The fundamentals of the sector are such that it basically lends itself to companies with great scale, backward integration, and using the latest technology.
Bear in mind, we are expected to transition from TOPCon to some of the newer technologies over a period of about '28 to '29, and we're also likely to see the rollout of ALMM 3 in the same kind of timeframe. Any of the newer players with smaller capacities, high debt levels, maybe not the same level of technical competence in terms of running and operationalizing their lines, they are likely in our view to basically struggle with having to undertake new technology upgrades and having to backward integrate.
It is possible that many of these companies will basically struggle to sustain the business and compete with the benefit of scale and technology with some of the larger players such as ourselves. I do believe that we will have a strong competitive advantage against many of the newer players entering the segment.
Amit Mahawar
Thanks. One second quick question is the cost of complying or transitioning to G12R, because this was not the case we realized in last 1 year, but it was very, very specific in last couple of months.
A lot of players will have to switch, and then we have further policy coming. What is the case that beyond '27, '28, the industry demand-supply from cell point of view is very, very favorable vis-a-vis what we see today?
Would you assign a higher probability to that, that beyond '27, '28, the industry demand-supply dynamics is very, very favorable than if it's perceived today? That's it.
Thank you.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Hi, Amit.
I think that's a very qualitative discussion. It's always very difficult to see how the market will be in 2 or 3 years' time.
I think a lot of the industry concerns about overcapacity are overdone because of the factors we discussed earlier in terms of the financial discipline and time taken, technical expertise required to execute these plants. We don't have to just look at the cell capacities alone.
I think we have to look at the fact that the technology landscape is evolving and changing, and the focus of the business is going to shift towards backward integration with the rollout of ALMM 3. I think given that, and if you look at how many companies will be able to also successfully integrate backwards in this space of time, we do believe that will be only about, I would say, 6 to 8 players who will be successful in doing so, and they will be basically accounting for bulk of the market.
Amit Mahawar
Yeah. Okay.
Thanks, Vinay.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Just to add on the G12R, it's not the cost of upgrade. It's the time which it takes to upgrade and then stabilize the lines, which is more expensive.
Amit Mahawar
Got it, sir. Thank you very much, and good luck.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC.
Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you so much for the opportunity.
My first question is on your non-DCR cells where you said everything is a pass-through. How do you think about margins?
Is it more in percentage terms or dollar per watt peak?
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Hi, Puneet.
For the non-DCR market, we obviously look at what is the EBITDA for the business, taking into account basically our BOM and other conversion costs. Overall, despite the competition and the overcapacity in the non-DCR space, we have been able to maintain our margins at very attractive levels and also pass on the increased costs to our customers.
What I'm trying to understand, yeah.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. I think the realization what we get is on a dollar per watt.
It is not on percentage because it is a pass-through and the cell is fully funded by the offtaker.
Right. Would it be fair to assume that you might also be enjoying the rupee depreciation benefit here?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes, sometimes yes, depending on at what contract terms we have with the customer. If the customer, we signed up on a INR per watt peak orders, then we would not.
If the dollar, we will.
Okay. You also mentioned that you are seeing profit pools move from non-DCR cells to DCR cells.
Has it already started happening, and what would your margins have been earlier on the non-DCR side versus now? No.
Non-DCR cell is just a bought-out item for us, right?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
I didn't get your question fully. Could you repeat that?
No,
you said the profit pool will start moving from the non-DCR modules to DCR modules, right? On the cell side, because of
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
As ALMM 2 gets fully implemented, you would see that by FY28, India market, I think 100% would be DCR. It starts off in '26 June, but then it's a gradual, phased implementation.
The C&I gets implemented immediately, and the IPP projects will come in after the earlier projects which are grandfathered are executed.
Okay. Are you already seeing some bit of compression in margins on the non-DCR side, or that is yet to happen?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
No. Maybe last quarter, we had seen a slight compression, but it's now kind of started increasing.
Prices have started increasing.
Okay. Lastly, on your cell lines, you talked about June and September.
When should we assume that those lines will stabilize?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
If you look at the historical track record which Premier has, we have been able to ramp up lines between 4 to 6 months. In the TOPCon line, if you see, we're already at about 80% as we speak, and by next month, we'll be 100% of what we can achieve.
In terms of plant utilization, it will be about 90%, but at the peak at which we have been achieving every quarter. Now for our new cell lines, we expect the same thing that we would be able to achieve in about 4 to 6 months.
Full utilization for June line should happen by December for sure?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yes.
Okay. Great.
That's all from my side. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shashank Shah from SBICAP Securities.
Please go ahead.
Shashank Shah
Sir, I have two questions. First one is regarding the effective capacity utilization.
When you say you'll have 10 GW of cell capacity, how much you will be actually able to produce out of it?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
We have always been very transparent with the market on effective capacity. In fact, if you look at our TOPCon cell line, which we have said is 1.2 GW, we had our ALMM inspection which got completed yesterday, and as per ALMM, our capacity is 1.35 GW.
We always talk about effective capacity.
Shashank Shah
When you say 10 GW expansion, what will be the actually usable thing?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
The actual usable would be 90% of 10, that is 9 GW.
Shashank Shah
You are talking about G12R cells?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
We are talking about G12R.
Shashank Shah
Okay. Got it.
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Yeah. If I actually take it as a G12, then it'll be even higher.
Then we always want to be conservative in our announcements. That is a 10 GW line based on G12R, not on G12.
Shashank Shah
When you say 10 GW, it will the capacity, and 9 GW will be the actual production, right?
Chiranjeev Singh Saluja
Right, after it is ramped up.
Shashank Shah
One last question, sir. When you expanded 10 GW to cell, you may have done some demand forecasting that by FY29, FY30, this will be the usage for cell.
From where you get idea that I have to make my cell capacity to 10 GW? What was the rationale behind it doing this CapEx?
I just want to understand that, sir.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. I think that depends on the overall assessment of demand-supply, given the bottom-up analysis of the market.
We follow all the government policy announcements, the technology developments, and cost of production trends, etc., very closely. Obviously, we also track all the competitive landscape in terms of different players, their execution status, funding status, etc., very closely.
Like we have said, we believe that it takes much longer time for companies to actually deliver on their announcements in terms of implementation of their lines and then to finally start production from these lines. Given our view was that the demand-supply landscape is expected to remain favorable, we saw an opportunity, and that is why we decided to accelerate the implementation of our 7 GW cell line because we feel that we have an opportunity to be able to sell these cells at attractive prices.
Shashank Shah
Okay. Got it.
Any plan on moving to electrolyzers?
Vinay Rustagi
Yes. I think we have to see how the fundamentals of the green hydrogen market develop.
There is obviously a lot of promise. The government of India has a target of 5 million tons of green hydrogen capacity.
I think the truth is that the techno-economic viability of green hydrogen business is expected to take another 3 to 4 years. That is why you see the actual implementation on the ground to be very, very slow.
We are tracking this market closely. It remains of interest, and we will announce our plans based on our expectation of the market takeoff.
Shashank Shah
Sir, one last question. It is regarding green hydrogen.
So 1 green hydrogen translate to 1 GW, I think translate to 1 million metric ton translate to fine green ammonia, and 5 million metric ton translate to something around, I just wanted to confirm, 20 MW of AC power, right? 5 MW GW.
Vinay Rustagi
That's correct, yes.
Shashank Shah
[foreign language]
Vinay Rustagi
It is very difficult to give a precise number because ultimately it would depend on the kind of renewable project configuration, whether it is solar plus storage or solar plus wind plus storage, etc. I think based on broad industry trends, we expect about 15 to 20 GW of solar module demand for every million tons of hydrogen capacity.
The government target is 5 million tons, the total solar module demand would be about 100 GW.
Shashank Shah
That's great then, sir. Yeah.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Shashank Shah
Sir. That's all.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dhruv from HDFC AMC.
Please go ahead.
Sir. Thank you so much.
Sir, one clarification. You mentioned that a lot of pricing is also on dollar basis.
Is it different for cell and module or similar? If you can share what proportion of, say, for example, on the order book is dollar-based pricing and how much is INR-based?
Vinay Rustagi
About 80% to 85% of our order book is dollar-based. We have very few orders which we take on rupee-based.
Those are mostly short-term orders. Cell and module both, be it DCR, non-DCR, or the cells, is all dollar-based.
Okay. Interesting.
Sir, secondly, earlier in the comments, you mentioned that we are seeing some price increases in modules. The industry is taking some price increase probably because of the inflation.
If I'm not wrong, probably I'm not heard that not much of talk is happening on the cell price increase for the DCR market. Just were curious why there is a lot of inflation, although you are hedging, probably you will replace with copper, but that also will add to some element of the cost.
Why is the industry probably not trying, given the demand-supply is favorable, why the industry is not aiming for a price increase in the DCR cells?
Vinay Rustagi
Dhruv, it would depend on the contracts which we have signed. Let's say I've signed a contract with a customer where there is a
For the new contracts, I'm saying, for incremental contracts.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Again, for incremental contracts for DCR, pricing, we are seeing prices to be fairly stable.
In fact, as per market estimates, there was a talk that DCR prices would fall to as low as 13 cents, but we have not seen this drop. We are still seeing price realization over 14
cents. No, I'm just trying to understand given the cost inflation, meaningful cost inflation, silver, although you hedge, but still the incremental assuming the spot remains, the incremental hedge will also come at a higher value.
There is an inflation. I'm just trying to understand as industry, as a player, why aren't you trying to push for that cost increase?
Vinay Rustagi
As we told, we have for 6 months. Supplies beyond 6 months, when they come up, and depending on the silver prices as they progress, we would maybe push for a cost increase once that really comes in.
Sure, got it. Perfect.
Thank you, sir, and all the best. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rushabh Sanghvi from Oaklane.
Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question.
I know you mentioned the contribution of silver in a previous answer. Just wanted to know exactly as a percentage of the total cost of the cell, how much is silver and how has that been trending the last 6 months?
Vinay Rustagi
Hi, Rushabh. I'm not able to give you a percentage number, but like I said earlier, the share of silver has basically gone up from about 1 cent a watt to about 2.5 cents, 2.7 cents.
We would expect that number to actually start going down with the progress that we are making on reducing silver consumption.
Got it. I know you mentioned that a lot of the costs that we incur are pass-through, especially for cost escalation.
Can you help us understand how the cost of the imported cell has actually gone up regardless of whether it's pass-through or not?
Vinay Rustagi
In terms of increase? So Rushabh, are you meaning the increase in the non-DCR cell prices?
Increase in the imported cell prices.
Vinay Rustagi
It's gone up from levels of about sub-4 cents to about 6 cents now as we speak.
Got it. That I'm assuming is the entire thing is just from the silver, what you're saying from 1
Vinay Rustagi
to 2.5. Yes.
Got it. All right.
Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Arora from Axis Mutual Fund.
Please go ahead.
Nitin Arora
Sorry, my questions have been answered. Thank you.
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Balasubramanian from Arihant Capital.
Please go ahead.
Balasubramanian A
Good afternoon, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunities.
Sir, I think we have seen limited tariff impact from ALMM 2. It's almost 0.1 per kilowatt hour for captive as well as open access.
However, I think we have 61 GW solar and 20 GW hybrid projects under development. What proportion of this pipeline is subject to ALMM 2 and 3?
How we are going to absorb part of ALMM-related cost increase pressure which impact margins? My first question, sir.
Vinay Rustagi
Bala, hi. I'm not sure I followed the full question correctly, but I think the question understood was about basically the split of the pipeline in terms of ALMM 1 and ALMM 2.
Is that correct?
Balasubramanian A
Yes, sir. Between 61 GW solar and 20 GW hybrid projects which are under development, that one also.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. See, I think if you look at the timeline for various auctions, bulk of these auctions were completed in FY24 and FY25, and there has been a massive slowdown in auctions over the last year, basically since the time that ALMM 2 has become effective.
I would expect as much as, I'm taking a very broad guess, but as much as 90%-plus of the current pipeline would be ALMM 1.
Balasubramanian A
Sir. Sir, how we are exposed to changes in domestic content requirement, especially for mandatory 50% for PGI projects and how this will impact our cost structure?
Vinay Rustagi
I think the movement to DCR and ALMM 2 is very, very beneficial because we have a fully integrated business and we have our cell lines running at optimal capacity utilization. This is only going to provide a further impetus to our business in terms of sales as well as margins.
Balasubramanian A
Okay. Sir, may I ask you one small question?
Vinay Rustagi
Please.
Balasubramanian A
Yes, sir. Sir, I think bigger panel companies are targeting to acquire small solar cell companies, how this industry is consolidating.
I think Goldi Solar is acquiring on a small cell company based out of in Andhra Pradesh. How the industry is shaping up in terms of consolidation?
Vinay Rustagi
I think this is something which is expected to play out over the next 2 years. As more and more companies get into the sector, we feel that many companies will find that actual execution and operations is far more challenging, and particularly with complexities around technology, scale, backward integration, etc.
We will see more consolidation opportunities over a period of time.
Balasubramanian A
Sir. Got it.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Deepak from Swan Investments.
Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon, sir.
Sir, just wanted to check it out in terms of the spread in the dollar terms. Given the hike in the raw material, how do we see this spread in dollar terms?
Whether this would be sustained in DCR and non-DCR both? If you can share your perspective, especially after the 6 months when our hedging for the silver is going to get over.
Vinay Rustagi
Hi. Our margin in dollar terms, like we have been at pains to elaborate, that does remain unchanged because we've discussed the silver price cost increase, we've discussed increases or changes in other commodities.
Basically, we are trying to maintain our margins and pass on any increases in cost to our customers for new orders wherever possible, and the intent is to maintain the profitability and the overall margins.
Okay. Spread in the dollar term is going to be maintained even in the DCR and non-DCR both?
Vinay Rustagi
It is dollar-term pricing, as we have said, in both.
Okay. Even for the current order book beyond 6 months also, that will be maintained?
Vinay Rustagi
Yes. This is too much of speculation.
It depends what the silver price is then, and our negotiations with our customers. As far as we are concerned, our goal is to protect the margins and pass on any increase which comes in post our own internal processes to reduce silver consumption.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks a lot for clarification. Thank you.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today.
I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Vinay Rustagi
Yeah. Hi.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for staying in the call and giving us your time.
We touched a lot of ground in terms of the industry landscape and the company's business. I just want to close with some quick remarks about the demand landscape, because I know that there is a lot of concern in this particular area.
We have seen unprecedented growth in solar capacity installations over the last 2 years, beating all industry estimates, and that basically vindicates our beliefs in the sector's fundamentals of this technology. We believe that growth will surprise us on the upside.
Now with the new capacities coming up and increase in scale of our operations, particularly over the next 2 to 4 quarters, we are poised for a tremendous growth in our business, marking an inflection point in the company's journey. Combined with proposed forays into storage, inverters, and transformers, we are set to see an exciting growth journey with combined benefits of scale and diversification.
I want to thank all our investors and the analyst community for your continued support and look forward to working with you. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference.
Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Vinay Rustagi
Thank you.
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