RBL Bank Ltd.

RBL Bank Ltd.

346.20
INR
-13.80
(-3.83%)
10.79EPS
33.90P/E
570.64BMarket Cap
Jan 15Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 17, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to RBL Bank Limited Q3 FY26 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. R.

Subramaniakumar, Managing Director and CEO of RBL Bank. Thank you, and over to you, Mr.

Kumar.

R. Subramaniakumar

Thank you, ma'am. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for a discussion on our bank's financial results for the third quarter of financial year 2026.

We have uploaded the results along with the presentation on our website, and I hope you have had a chance to go through it in detail ahead of this call. As always, I am joined by Mr.

Rajeev Ahuja, Mr. Jaideep Iyer, and other members of our management team to address any questions you may have.

Before we get into the details on Q3 operational performance, I would like to briefly touch upon the business trends of the quarter. Our advances grew 14% year-on-year and deposits grew 12% year-on-year.

This was after we reduced our IVPC outstanding from 4,500 crores to 2,500 crores. The CD ratio stands comfortable at 86.1%.

The granular deposits, which remain our focus area, grew 15% and constitute 51.5% of total deposits. On asset side, secured retail assets grew 25% year-on-year, while unsecured advances have now stopped de-growing and it grew 1% sequentially.

In the wholesale segment, our commercial banking business grew 30% year-on-year, driven by calibrated investments in relationship and credit teams across existing markets, along with a selective expansion into new geographies. The disbursement in GLG segment has reached monthly run rate of 700-plus crore, with improvement in early bucket collection efficiency and reduction in slippages and SME bucket balances.

In credit cards, we achieved over 1 lakh card acquisition in a single month for the first time, post cessation of our new sourcing through our Bajaj partnership. The cards in force grew sequentially after six to seven quarters of reduction.

The spends per month are comfortable at the run rate of 7,000 crore. The credit card slippages continue to be slightly elevated, and we expect this trend to continue for two quarters, two more quarters.

On the interest rate front, the bank has absorbed 100 bps of repo rate cuts done till June 2025. The rate action taken in savings and repricing in term deposit rates has resulted in NIM increasing by 12 bps sequentially this quarter.

The bank expects term deposits to reprice further in Q4 FY26, and together with the improved disbursal in better-yielding assets, we expect the margins to be marginally better in next quarter, even after 25 bps repo cut in December 2025. We have adopted a calibrated approach to deposit repricing, including savings account rates, and remain confident of continuing this gradual normalization in a measured manner.

During the quarter, we accelerated branch expansion by adding 18 branches and will sustain this momentum to strengthen our physical footprint and support growth in retail deposits. We have made meaningful progress in liberating branches as a fulcrum for asset growth, with increased branch-led sourcing across gold loans, working capital, secured business loans, home loans, and credit cards.

While this remains a work in progress, we are encouraged by the direction of travel and expect the pace of traction to further improve. The disbursement from branches is at a monthly run rate of rupees 400 crore.

The gold loans disbursement has now reached a monthly run rate of 225-250 crore and has the potential to go significantly higher. Our wholly-owned subsidiary, RPL, as a sourcing channel for affordable housing and small business loans, is now gaining traction and has the potential to become a meaningful contributor to secured loan sourcing alongside GLG.

Importantly, our retail secured businesses as a cohort have now turned profitable at the operating level, and as scale builds, we expect operating leverage to progressively translate into improved performance. On the progress of announced capital infusion by Emirates NBD Bank, we received shareholder approval in November 2025 for the overall transaction, including the proposed capital infusion and amalgamation of Emirates NBD's India branches with the bank.

Applications have been made for approval with other regulatory authorities, including Reserve Bank of India, Government of India, Competition Commission of India, SEBI, etc., and they are in various stages of progress. In summary, our priorities remain focused on building granular liabilities with a narrower cost of deposits gap versus larger peers, achieving a more balanced retail asset mix with a faster growth in secular products, strengthening branch-led customer acquisition and deposits mobilization, deepening customer relationship through higher product penetration across our large existing customer base, and improving operational efficiency in our chosen segments to deliver more predictable outcomes across our P&L.

Overall, we believe we are firmly on the right trajectory, with multiple growth opportunities ahead and right engines well oiled to capture these in a disciplined and sustainable manner. Now I will invite Mr.

Jaideep Iyer to take you through the financials in greater detail.

Jaideep Iyer

Thank you, Mr. Kumar, and good afternoon, everyone.

Let me briefly touch upon some of the specific aspects of our financial performance. We grew our net advances 14% year-on-year and 3% sequentially to 1,03,086 crores.

Retail advances grew by 10% year-on-year and 1% sequentially to 60,611 crores. Consequently, the retail wholesale mix is now at 59-41.

Mr. Kumar mentioned, this is net of the reduction of 3,000 crores in IBPC in the business loan and housing loan segments.

Secured retail advances, after the above reduction in IBPC, grew 25% year-on-year and 1% sequentially. Adjusted for IBPC, obviously this has grown faster.

Within secured retail, business loans plus housing loans grew 34% year-on-year and 8% sequentially. Tractor finance grew at about 23% year-on-year and 7% sequentially.

The disbursement rate, run rate for secured retail is well above 5,000 crores on a quarterly basis. For context, this number was approximately 3,000 crores in Q1 of this year.

Wholesale banking advances grew at about 21% year-on-year and 5% sequentially, and within wholesale, commercial banking grew at a faster pace at about 30% year-on-year and 7% sequentially. The disbursement in the GLG segment is at a run rate of 700 crore per month versus 550 crores in the previous quarter.

The good news is that the early bucket collection efficiency is 99.5. This is as good as one has got in this segment for a long time.

The benefits of this has already been seen in lower sequential slippages, and we expect that trend to continue. Retraining, what Mr.

Kumar said on cards, we have now crossed one lakh card acquisition in a month for the first time post the Bajaj sourcing, Bajaj Finance sourcing stopped in November 2024. As a result of which our card in force also grew sequentially.

Hopefully this should now result in the receivables as well growing on this sequentially from the next quarter onwards. On deposits, our total deposit grew at about 12% year-on-year and 3% sequentially to 1,19,721 crores.

CASA ratio now stands at 30.9. Our primary focus area being granular deposits, as we have mentioned several times in the past.

The focus is on deposits less than three crores, which grew faster at 15% year-on-year and 4% sequentially to 61,632 crores and now constitutes 51.5% of the total deposits, vis-à-vis 51% in the last quarter. Branch banking-led deposits grew 18% year-on-year and 3% sequentially, accounting for 66% of the total deposits of the bank.

Average LCR continues to be healthy at 125%. CD ratio, as Mr.

Kumar mentioned, is about 86.1. We are quite comfortable with a range of 83 to 87% on the CD ratio.

Cost of deposits for the quarter was down to 6.2% versus 6.26% in Q2. Our savings account cost for the quarter was 11 basis points down sequentially to 5.15.

Similarly, our cost of TDs is down 23 basis points to 7.29 versus 7.52 vis-à-vis last quarter. We have also taken a rate action in savings, where we have reduced the peak bucket down to 6% from 6.5%.

We do expect cost of deposits to further decline in Q4, and therefore should help to marginally improve the margins, even though the full impact of the December repo rate cut will come in Q4 of this financial year. A little bit on our operating performance: our NII was up 5% year-on-year and more importantly 7% sequentially to 1,657 crores.

NIM, as a consequence, sequentially was up at 4.63% vis-à-vis 4.51%. Other income in this quarter was up 13% year-on-year to 1,050 crores, and I'm excluding the one-off investment benefit that we had on a listing of a strategic investment we had in Q3 of FY26.

Excluding that, it was up 13% year-on-year. Core fee income grew 10% year-on-year and 3% sequentially to 959 crores.

Total net income was up 2% year-on-year and 9% sequentially to 2,708 crores. OPEX grew less than revenue at 8% year-on-year and 2% sequentially to 1,795 crores.

Our cost-to-income ratio as a consequence is 66.3 versus 70.7 last quarter. PPOP, pre-operating profit, was 912 crores, up 25% sequentially.

As a result, our net profit for the quarter was 214 crores. We have also taken the gratuity provision due to change in the methodology for about 30 crores, which is a part of the reason for net profit to be at 214 crores.

On asset quality, in terms of net NPA ratio and GNPA ratio, we are down. GNPA was down 45 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.88, and net NPA was down two basis points to 0.55%.

Provisioning coverage ratio is healthy at about 71.1%. Total net slippages in the quarter was 711 crores, down from 918 crores in Q1 FY26 and 725 crores last quarter.

Net slippages in wholesale were negative, which has been the trend for a while, aided by recoveries, negative of 9 crores. Credit card slippage was 539 crores, JLG was 130 crores, and the rest of the retail was 51 crores.

Essentially our major slippages are pretty much from cards and JLG, with the reducing, materially reducing trend in the JLG slippages. JLG was also further reduced at 124 crores in line with improving collection efficiencies.

We have also seen improvement in resolution rates in bucket 1 and bucket 2. Also, we now have 80-plus percent of our standard JLG portfolio now covered by TGSMU.

Hopefully that helps us in good stead if and when there is another cycle over the years. Net restructured advances is very, very small now at 0.16%.

On provisioning, net provision on advances was about 634 crores, largely dominated by cards with 491 crores, JLG of about 60 crores, and all other retail put together at about 70 crores, and wholesale was about 13 crores. Credit cost as a result for the quarter was 64 basis points.

On capital, we continue to be fairly healthy with 14.94% total capital adequacy and CET1 of 13.45, including the profits for nine months. We burnt about sequentially about 7-8 basis points, largely due to growth.

With this, we will now open the session for Q&A. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on the touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

The first question is from the line of Rikin Shah from IFL Capital. Please go ahead.

Rikin Shah

Hi, good afternoon, sir, and thanks for the opportunity. I have four questions.

First one was, I just noticed that the balance with other banks on the balance sheet has jumped to 12,000 crores, a sharp increase both QOQ, YOY, partly it's a function of, I guess, reduction in the CRR, but instead of deploying it elsewhere, it has again gone to other banks. I just wanted to get a sense, will this build-up continue, or do you intend to deploy that in either G-sec or loans in the coming quarters?

That's number one. The second one is on your provision coverage.

It has now come down to 71%. Perhaps it means that the additional SMA loan provisions on MFI book are no longer being carried and it has normalized.

How do you expect PCR to settle in the next one year? Is this the level where it will continue, or would you want to further increase it?

That's number two. Third one is on asset quality.

The slippages in credit card are elevated, and Kumar sir, you mentioned it may remain elevated for next couple of quarters. Was just curious to understand why has it not normalized yet?

What is it keeping at elevated levels and probably longer than what we initially thought? Lastly, pertaining to the fund infusion, any initial thoughts how you would be looking to deploy once the capital potentially comes in 1Q FY27?

Those are my four questions. Thank you.

Jaideep Iyer

Okay. I'll take a couple of them and I'll ask Rajeev to get into that, the mathematical part of it.

Okay. The first one with regard to deployment of funds, as I told in the last time also, we said that we have drawn a broad strategic plans for deployment of that, and it is being discussed at the board level, and we will be able to give the precise way of doing it because we have identified the growth within all the areas which we have been growing for the last one or two years.

Second, there will be some new forays and new areas we will be entering, which will be in terms of investment, part of investment management, expanding our branch footprint, expanding our distributions, and some new products and services in retail we'll be able to introduce it. We have a GIFT city, we wanted to leverage it.

These are the various things, which I said earlier. We stand by that, and we are working on the deeper numbers on that.

With regard to the PCR, if you look at it, we are normally comfortable between around 75-78%, which is what we have been mentioning it earlier. Maybe in the quarter to come, we will be building up to that extent.

With regard to the bank balance, I'll ask Rajeev to give you the details. Yeah.

Just to add on PCR, we have board-approved policies, obviously there is not much discretion or changes that happen. Depending on the portfolio which is going bad, there is a certain level of provisioning which is taken.

It's a little bit of a mathematical outcome than a target. We've said in the past that we should definitely be 65-plus most of the times.

On credit cards, yes, we kind of, if I want to divide the problem, I think we are kind of happy with the book that has been created over the last 18-24 months, and we're seeing progressively better outcomes on that. If we look at leading indicators like six months on book or 12 months on book, there are certain pockets of the portfolio which are exhibiting weakness, and we think that it will take us, as Mr.

Kumar mentioned, a couple of more quarters for that to resolve itself. Therefore conservatively we are guiding like this, and it's a combination of, what underwriting we had, a reasonable jump in growth of cards post-COVID, part of that could be related to that, part of that is also related to some macroeconomic weakness.

Some of that is also related to the fact that we are withdrawing from many pockets because we were fairly distributed on cards when we had a partnership with Bajaj, and we are now wanting to focus more in the top, let's say 80-100, 150 locations rather than being far more spread out. As we withdraw from fringe geographies, there are some impact on collections that happen.

I think it's a combination of that. The good part is that we are quite confident of where we see this resolutions improving and what is the kind of risk underwriting that has happened over the last two years.

There is reasonable predictability on what we are seeing, and hopefully we'll be able to demonstrate that over the next, let's say, two to three quarters. On the balance sheet front, yeah, on the fourth quarter, it's actually a single-day phenomenon.

If I look at daily averages, I don't think it will be so stark. Some deployment of excess liquidity in a manner which was more tactical at that point in time is more a consequence of that rather than anything from a structural trend to read into that.

Rikin Shah

Got it. Just one clarification on the PCR comment.

Kumar sir mentioned 75 to 78% being the comfort level, and you did mention 65% plus. How should we build this?

Jaideep Iyer

It's a function of which goes bad, right? For example, theoretically, let's say at some point, there is a secured retail asset shows some increase, theoretically, that will continue at 15%, right?

Because the recoverability there is very high.

Rikin Shah

As we expect, see,

Jaideep Iyer

one of the other things that is happening in on the microfinance front, there is a catch-up of provisioning that is happening. We have got back to a 25% run rate.

We will see a little bit of net NPAs increase in microfinance from a legacy portfolio standpoint, whatever went bad in Q2, Q3, etc., and Q4 will have a catch-up provision based on a 25% per quarter catch-up. It has nuances around which portfolio at what point in time.

I think basis the recoverability, we are quite comfortable with the provisioning guidelines that we have. We are very aggressive, as on cards.

We are reasonably comfortable with the microfinance portfolio to be taken 100% provisioning over a year. We are, despite portfolios like tractor, we take 100% provisioning in two quarters, despite it being secured.

I think depending on what portfolio exhibits stress, there can be some ups and downs. Broadly speaking, as I said, plus-minus 70 is where we should be comfortable with.

Rikin Shah

Got it. Very helpful.

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jayant Kharote from Axis Capital.

Please go ahead.

Jayant Kharote

Thanks for the opportunity. Two questions.

One is on the cards business. While we do understand that you've taken corrective actions, but the quantum of slippages are, or at least the provisioning seems to be continuing for much longer than the industry.

Through workout resolution, a good runs of the book is not growing. Even with the capital coming in, if a large part of the book doesn't accelerate, how do we see this business not from next Q3 quarters but next year perspective?

When do we really start the issuance rate to go back to the earlier levels? That is number one, and specifically want to understand why our BL card portfolio is lagging the industry over here?

I'll come back to the second question.

Jaideep Iyer

I think the way I have described it, I don't think I have much more substance to add here Jayant. Basically we are saying that when we look at incremental portfolio that has been underwritten over the last couple of years and the early trends that we are seeing on that, those are coming quite under control.

There are, as I mentioned, certain pockets of portfolios which are exhibiting stress, and we expect that to resolve itself over the next two quarters. In terms of coming back to a run rate of issuance of two to one-and-a-half lakh, I don't think we are necessarily chasing a specific number here.

I think the bigger excitement that we have is how do we underwrite cards and have multiple products, look at cross-sell to the same customer base. We are hopeful to have a significantly higher overlap between our savings account and card customers over time.

We are hopeful of underwriting other secure products to the same customer base through more advanced analytical underwriting methods. I think that is where even the methodology of how we approach customer, how the customers can do DIY journeys for consuming multiple products, I think that is where the focus is.

I don't think we are looking at cards as a standalone product to grow materially beyond, we'll be very comfortable with a 10 to 15% growth in the book and one to one-and-a-half lakh. We should get to one-and-a-half lakh new card acquisition in a few months, and I think that's a good run rate as long as we are able to bank the customer for more products.

Because one of the ironically one of the risk mitigants in this business is actually to have a more transactional relationship beyond cards with the customer. That's obvious when you look at performance of card businesses across banks and non-banks.

You will see that difference. I think we want to progressively move towards multi-product customer consumption on this rather than a single product business.

Jayant Kharote

I think very clear actually capital has been invested on the book is very clear and said, targeting the grown-ups. Just to add on the asset quality, how many more quarters do you think you'll need for the cards book to stabilize on asset quality?

R. Subramaniakumar

See, I just want this to be understood in two parts of it. The acquisition which we are doing it in last maybe around six months' time is behaving normally.

In the sense that we are in a position to gone back to the quantity of acquiring to that good, steady. The existing book, which is showing the stress after we took over, as Jaideep made it clear earlier, it was operating in all the PIN codes.

We have shrunk the PIN codes. Naturally the PIN codes where we don't have the muscle to do this activity is just showing a lot of stress there.

Because this is one business where you have to be in the business for retaining the people at the end, and you have to keep on doing the results all the PIN codes to do that. That stress, we made a very sharp assessment of it, and it will pick out in the June, and thereafter it will start trending down.

We will be by September, if you call it, it may be normalized number what we have been seeing it earlier. June is what it will pick out.

Bikram, anything more to add? Yeah.

No, sir. I think you have summarized it well.

In terms of our customer selection criteria and our distribution strength, we are almost at a well-defined level. From here onwards, we'll continue to grow at about 10-15%.

What we have identified in collection performance is that except the early trends and the new sourcing is behaving as per the plan, except for a particular cohort. Most of it is looking predictably coming within our risk appetite zone, and I think in another two quarters we should see it getting back to the desired levels.

Just to again confirm, by September if we stabilize it means second half of FY27, we should be looking at a normalized behavior of this book on the capital. The answer second question was on the growth after the capital and branch strategy.

If you could just help us with the timelines on board branch expansion, assuming hypothetically the capital is already in in the next one or two months, how do you lay out the branch expansion strategy over the next one or two years, and then again similarly timeline on the growth of NPA growth acceleration? See, our branch expansion strategy is very clearly laid out, and it has been well consumed by the team across.

We will exit March with around 600 branches, and by next March, the year after, we will around 800, and by third year we'll be exiting from 1,000 branches. It is our own RBL branch bank.

We have already identified 200 growth locations across the country, taking into consideration the opportunity for us to make a high growth rate there in this particular granularization of our focus. This is apart from the touch points of around 1,300 where we are in RFL, which we have started leveraging it for last couple of quarters, where apart from doing the ALG business, they will be doing all that retail secured businesses also.

For a specific understanding, you will say that 1,000 branches will do all your retail asset, retail liability, it is a retail consumer business bank, branch bank, and RFL will be doing your retail asset also. For the business growth opportunity, you will be having around 2,400 touch points by end of third year.

On the timelines for growth and the capital? The capital is depending on the approval which is going to come.

We don't have a precedence to say precisely when it is coming because it's the first of its kind. We made our own assessment based on what are the conversation which is going on with various regulatory authorities who we have applications that are made.

We feel that maybe in Q1 will be the right time for us to say that approvals will come, thereafter the process will follow for getting that infusion to take place. Post the capital, would you take time to start growing, or you think you already have the right plan in place?

Right now we are already growing at 25% to 30% range. If you see it, my wholesale is growing at 21%, and commercial is growing at 30%, and retail secured is growing somewhere around 30%, which all of them put together is somewhere around 73% to 74% because of our unsecured and ALG put together is 26%, remaining is this.

This is this. What is growing at the rate of around 25%, even.

With the capital, with an expansion of the footprint, naturally it adds you much above the 25% what you are talking about. It can be another 10% is.

The growth is something which is given and assured. With our current growth rate, our run rate will go faster.

Instead of hitting force, maybe that we will continuously reaching the boundaries much easier. It is very clear.

Thanks for the last. Mr.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kunal Shah from Citigroup please go ahead.

Kunal Shah

I also question. Two questions, particularly now getting on to the credit cost, given that the pain on the credit card is continuing, now how should we see the credit cost settling?

I heard that maybe the credit card slippages would peak out in maybe June. Do we see a much elevated level even compared to that of 2Q going forward, 3Q going forward?

Or maybe this is the level which can be sustained? What would be the overall guidance on the credit cost side?

Jaideep Iyer

Kunal, I think on slippagees we are not suggesting that this is going up. We are broadly talking about current range which are obviously elevated from where it ideally should be.

There is no suggestion that we will see anything more than the range that we've been in. Even credit costs, maybe it's going to be two different halves next year because cards will play a role.

I guess first half will be somewhat in the current range, maybe a little lower because microfinance is coming under control. Second half should start seeing significant improvement on credit cost.

Kunal Shah

Maybe this kind of an run rate of 2.5, 2.3 to 2.5 should continue for a few more quarters.

Jaideep Iyer

No, I think not a few more quarters. I think, see, within this, I think microfinance is coming down, we are not seeing any material challenge in any other part of the business, whether it's wholesale or secured retail.

If microfinance comes down, we should see some moderation on credit costs. I'm not getting into precise number guidance here of 10 basis points or 20 basis points, but we should not go beyond this range clearly.

As and when the card situation improves, which as we are saying should start looking better from September, second half of next year should start moderating internal credit costs quite materially.

Kunal Shah

Sure. Second question is with respect to the cost of deposits benefit, maybe in fact when we look at it, it's not coming through much.

Even this quarter it's been down just six odd basis points. When do we see this eventually cost of deposits benefit to flowing?

When we look at it maybe from 6.53, it's still down to 6.2. Maybe when we look at it maybe when should a larger part of this benefit start flowing?

Again, maybe savings is seeing the benefit. TD we saw it 23-odd basis points this quarter.

TD benefit should continue for another two quarters, given the average maturity.

Jaideep Iyer

Yes. Yeah.

Kunal, I think the TD trend is quite clear. The savings account reduction is calibrated consciously.

I think where there is a little bit of a challenge is that the CASA ratio on a daily average basis is a little bit of a challenge, given the situation in the industry and the fact that we are also reducing SA rates. If I look at TD rates, I think yes, that trend will continue because repricing benefits will come over time.

Therefore effective cost of funds reduction will be a little moderated as compared to the TD cost reduction.

Kunal Shah

Okay. One last question on ECL, maybe if you have again recalibrated the impact and maybe gone into much detail about it, what could be the overall ECL transitioning impact now?

Jaideep Iyer

That's a little bit work in progress. I think we are in that 10% zone of network.

We are, our guidelines have recently come out and we are in the process of, we will also have to potentially start reporting IFRS accounts for consolidation purposes post the consummation of the transaction. We are working on that with a lot more detail orientation, and as and when we have visibility, we'll come back, but we should be plus minus broadly in that 10% zone of network.

Kunal Shah

Thanks. Thanks and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Jai Mundhra from ICICI Securities.

Please go ahead.

Jai Mundhra

Hi, good afternoon, and thanks for the opportunity. First question on RBI approval.

You mentioned that you have also sought approval for amalgamation of Emirates NBD India branch, and of course there is an approval pending for the transaction. Are these two separate approvals, or they are one approval only?

Jaideep Iyer

That's two different approvals. It has to be.

First one is in respect of consummating the transaction. The second will be the amalgamation of the branches into it.

We also made a statement, during the intervening period we also sought permission for running the two entities. This is also the third approval, which is also done.

All the three approvals are independent of each other, and they will be considered concurrently because everything has a linkage to every other approval. It is not— nothing can be given on a standalone basis, and is sought in sequence.

Jai Mundhra

Sure. No, that is very clear.

Second question, sir, on credit card business. You mentioned about the likely asset quality behavior, but I also wanted to check on the growth side, right?

If you believe that it will take over two quarters for portfolio quality to more stabilize, in the intervening period would you see the book outcome to be similar wherein the QOQ YOY growth has been negative, or you think that, maybe the recent behavior makes you positive to at least start growing this book? How should one look at the credit card book growth over the next two to three quarters?

Jaideep Iyer

One important point I tell, then I'll ask Bikram to talk about it in detail. The first thing will be that it will become QOQ positive.

Then we will start working on YOY positive. Next quarter it is going to become QOQ positive and the other YOY positive because with the 10 to 15% range, it will take some time for you to become YOY positive.

Bikram, you can use my further details.

Jai Mundhra

In any mature credit card portfolio, you see erosion of about 12-13% annually, either voluntarily or involuntarily, which means that to sustain a growth of say about 10-15%, we have to do new cards equivalent to about 25 to 30% of our current base. Now immediately after exit of Bajaj, we did the diversification of distribution, which has scaled up to 100,000 cards in December.

We'll continue to now scale it up to drive about 10 to 15% growth on a sustainable basis. In month of November and December, after about 12-15 months, we have seen growth in the portfolio.

Now after the start of the— so this is a point of inflection from where we will sustainably grow 10 to 15% annually, which means that about 5-7 to 10% quarter on quarter. That is the answer on growth.

For driving this growth, we have already developed well-defined distribution within the bank, with no dependency on third party, which is giving us sustainable new acquisition on month-on-month basis. Did I answer your question?

Yes, that helps very much. Then another question from on IDPC sell down.

I was under the impression that, the bank would need more growth even if it comes from IDPC. Why sell down IDPC when one or two quarters down the line you may have to again do IDPC only?

R. Subramaniakumar

Sir, I think it is not a sale of our asset. This is something IDPC which has been taken by us over a period of time and we got accumulated to about.

Then we said that our own muscles should contribute. We have started saying that instead of doing lazy banking, we wanted to do some hard work banking, which is one of the major reasons for us to show this.

At one point of the time you have to — you can't depend on the third party if you wanted to accumulate for growth. Minus this, our people were able to show the growth of around 24% organically, so that now they know that strength, which will go up to let us say 30, 32, 35.

That is an idea. It is not our assets sold to IDPC.

It's the other way around. We had removed our IDPC book which we bought over a period of time.

Jai Mundhra

Sir. Last question, sir, on LCR.

If you can quantify from April beginning, you may have to provide more runoff rates on MIB, and there could be some lower runoff rates on wholesale deposit. What could be the net impact because of these changes on your LCR?

Could there be release, or you may have to provide more liquidity?

R. Subramaniakumar

If I remember right, the cost is going to give you the benefit of LCR release because it is going to move away from 100% outflow to about 40% outflow, and it is providing an opportunity for growth, plus it is going to give you a release of LCR. I don't think there is going to be a problem of LCR.

Jai Mundhra

Marginal benefit only are the net there,

R. Subramaniakumar

release situation.

Jai Mundhra

Sure. The only thing is that we have to provide more on the mobile and internet banking, but that will be offset by the lower runoff rates.

R. Subramaniakumar

That correct.

Jai Mundhra

Okay. Thank you and all the very best,

R. Subramaniakumar

and

Jai Mundhra

congratulations, for your elevation. Thank you.

R. Subramaniakumar

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Piran Engineer from CLSA.

Please go ahead.

Piran Engineer

Hi, team. Congrats on the quarter.

Just a few questions, some might be repetitive, but on this credit card slippages, I understand that the new cohorts are doing better. Do you think it's also an issue with our collections infrastructure?

Maybe when it was Bajaj, they have a vast collections infrastructure across multiple products, multiple districts. Obviously it will be much bigger than ours.

Now when we move to ours, that is one of the reasons. It's not just the quality of the customer, but the ability to recover, which has impacted slippages.

What do you think of that?

R. Subramaniakumar

Yeah. Bikram, you can answer.

Bikram Yadav

Yeah. Hi.

See, when we have done a very rapid transition in somewhere in last financial year, there definitely was a transition impact, which was there. When we look at our collection outcome today, they are operating almost 5% better than what they used to operate in Bajaj's collection management days.

Our problem is not generally at a portfolio quality level. We have identified, there is a particular cohort which is giving us a little bit of a grief.

If we were to see the collection performance outside that, we are doing little better than what we used to do even when Bajaj was there. Our collection muscle right now is fully developed and fully ready to manage a portfolio of this size with a reasonable growth.

The slippage is coming because of that cohort which is giving a little bit of grief. Otherwise we are reasonably in control over the portfolio.

R. Subramaniakumar

Just to summarize the point what you have asked about, whether the collection infra is weak when compared to the BFL is a broader point which you brought about. The collection infra at the end of the day is always the collection agency which is working on the field, right?

The collection agency is going to be with us or it is going to be the Y, the same set of people. The supervisory team is what which has been taken over.

This infra setup might have taken a little time, but the setup is as strong as that it used to be earlier. This is a broader sense I wanted to give you and give you a comfort that it is not the collection infra.

If the collection infra is weak, it is going to be fairly weak. It isn't so.

The initial setup and absorption period, the moratorium got extended a little because of that. The locations on which we have to work on is much beyond the pin code where we have been, setup our pin code.

That creation has taken a little longer time. We have accelerated the issuance only after fixing the collection infra issue.

We have paused our growth plans till the collection infra was 100 percent in control and was delivering at the original level. That is the thing that we want to submit.

Piran Engineer

Got it. Secondly, even our unsecured retail slippages, are we happy with current levels?

Is this built into our profitability matrix, et cetera, 167 crores per quarter from a 35,000 crore book? If I look at, Atlas, other banks obviously, but we do understand that you all have to take higher risk bets because of your cost of fund.

Is this in line with your estimates or not, is my question.

Jaideep Iyer

Look, Piran, a couple of things. We have a very small agri portfolio, which is we had some couple of accounts of about 15-20 crores this quarter.

If I divide the book into let's say two, three parts, if you look at mortgages, which will include small LAPs, micro LAPs, housing, prime housing, prime LAP, all of that put together, I think we are in a relatively negligible slippage situation. You should look at net slippage on this because there are certain businesses where because of the guidelines you do have slippages, but then they get upgraded.

Other than, a couple of quarters back we had an issue with our working capital business, and this time we had a couple of loans on agri, but these are not anywhere symptomatic of the portfolio. This is anecdotal, and I think we are, other than tractors, which by definition goes at about 2 to 2.5 percent of the portfolio as slippages or credit cost, we are quite comfortable with where we stand on this.

Piran Engineer

Got it. Just your 15,000 crore secured business loans book, does this trade closing rate, for the average tenure?

Jaideep Iyer

On the business loans? On LAP portfolio?

Piran Engineer

The 15,000 crore secured business loans. I presume that is LAP, but I don't know if it's...

Jaideep Iyer

That's correct. Behaviorally it should be about four to five years.

Piran Engineer

It'll obviously be floating rates then?

Jaideep Iyer

Yes. All of, all entire retail is pretty much linked to repo and floating.

Other than cars and microfinance, obviously, and tractors, yes. Gold also?

Piran Engineer

Gold also,

Jaideep Iyer

yeah. Basically mortgages and working capital.

Piran Engineer

Got it. Lastly on CASA now, you mentioned industry-wide pressures, but is it simply that your customers are moving from SA to TD after the rate cuts?

R. Subramaniakumar

See, we saw that assessment. Some of them have moved from one bucket.

The people who were there in the higher bucket have moved partly to that TD. One thing I wanted to tell you, that NTD which my team is able to mobilize even after the cut, is just outweighs even that outflow which we are seeing here.

If you look at it, in the last two, three cuts, the total net outflow was somewhere around 200-300 crores only for the book of around 18,000 crores, which is a sign of holding the customers together. This is also not the one which left the bank.

Majority of that competition.

Piran Engineer

Okay. Yeah.

Left the bank, of course not, because all the other banks have also cut their rates, you can't go anywhere else, but moving to TD was my question. That answers my question.

Thank you and wish you all the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Param Subramanian from InCred.

Please go ahead.

Param Desai

Yeah. Hi.

Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, on...

I heard Mr. Kumar call out 200 branches per year, if I'm not wrong, for the next two years.

What does that mean for Opex run rate for FY27 and 28?

R. Subramaniakumar

Tell you, on average around, what, half a million INR is what we do. Opex.

Jaideep Iyer

Yeah. Let's say, simplistically, if you look at 200 branches for fiscal 27, we will look at an average rollout impact from a P&L standpoint of 100, and one should assume 60 to 70 lakh operating costs run rate per branch, and therefore that will translate to 60 to 70 crore in FY27.

Naturally, the next 60 to 70 crore of that full impact will come in fiscal 28. Then fiscal 28 will add another 100 branches for the year average.

This is a 200 for years. That's how the costs will pan out.

I think the reason we have confidence of visibility one is obviously there will be capital coming in. Second, we will continue to improve profitability on our secured retail.

Third, we expect a material change in

Param Desai

cards

Jaideep Iyer

and microfinance profitability by the time we exit our second half of fiscal 27. I think when you put all of that together, I think we are quite comfortable in taking these expansion costs, because ultimately we have to balance at some level, some level of growth, and it's easy to grow loan, say that obviously if you have to grow deposits, and that too deposits at a cost which we are comfortable with, because we do have a stated intention to reduce the gap, and along with that if we import 25-30 percent growth in deposits, naturally we will have to arm the businesses with distribution, and that's the intent.

Param Desai

So

R. Subramaniakumar

the branches for distribution for retail, a little lesser, we have a very calibrated plan of making the branches become profitable on the 18th month. That means a branch which is opened in this quarter will become, before FY28 will become profitable, and once the cycle sets in, and with the ability to reduce the cost, with the ability to borrow at a cheaper rate, that we can compensate.

While, of course, when you wanted to expand on the liability side, the print has to expand.

Param Desai

So 7200 crore is your annual Opex run rate. You're saying only a 60-70 crore extra impact.

Did I get that correctly? For branches, yes.

Jaideep Iyer

And

Param Desai

this is fully loaded. I think you're fully loaded branch expansion.

That should be the incremental impact. Okay.

Jaideep Iyer

Correct.

Param Desai

Okay. Fair enough.

Second question, again on your margin in this quarter. On slide 5 you show these movements, right, between your cost of funds and yield.

I think the LCR is also broadly stable quarter on quarter. Your yield is down 13 basis points.

Your cost of fund is down by less than that. How exactly is this NIM expansion, how has it played out over 12 basis points in this quarter?

Jaideep Iyer

Part of that, Param, is CRR cut benefit of about maybe 4 basis points or so. Part of that is, on a daily average basis, the investment book to advances book was lower than historical trends.

Some balance sheet efficiency, some improvement in short-term investments that we had. It's a mix of factors.

Param Desai

okay.

Jaideep Iyer

No, I thought it should have reflected in the LCR, right? That is...

Of course it's lower than the previous quarter. We've used liquidity more efficiently this quarter.

Param Desai

Okay. Fair enough.

That would sum me. Thanks.

Jaideep Iyer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rakesh Kumar from Valentis Advisors.

Please go ahead.

Rakesh Kumar

Hello.

Operator

Yes, Mr. Kumar, please go ahead with your question.

Rakesh Kumar

Hi, sir. First question, sir, on extension of DCCO also, how much is the provision that we are holding on loans outstanding?

Jaideep Iyer

Can you repeat the question?

Rakesh Kumar

With respect to outstanding accounts, where standard.

Operator

Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Rakesh, your voice is breaking, we are unable to hear you.

Rakesh Kumar

Is it fine now?

Operator

Yes, please go ahead.

Rakesh Kumar

Yes, I was asking the amount of standard asset provision that we have on the loan that we have, where the DCCO has been extended. What is the provision that we have on those loans?

Jaideep Iyer

Total project loans that we have on our books, based on the new guidelines that kicked in, is about 4 crore.

Rakesh Kumar

Okay.

Jaideep Iyer

On standard. Yeah.

Rakesh Kumar

Okay. What would be the incremental numbers?

Because of this increase in the DCCO extensions?

Jaideep Iyer

4 crore is largely incremental because we would have had only on a party basis point before that. Roughly 4 crore is delta.

Rakesh Kumar

Okay, okay. If you look at, the participation of your retail liability, it has marginally deteriorated from, from the June numbers.

If you have any color to add here.

Jaideep Iyer

In what context?

Rakesh Kumar

If I look at your retail liability constitution-wise breakup, which is there in slide number 16, and if I look at the numbers from June, June to December numbers, there is individual and HUF number percentage has come down.

Jaideep Iyer

I guess that necessarily is not good or bad in itself. I think small business, if you look at granular deposits, we are sequentially better.

It could be from small businesses. It could be, we would typically not necessarily look at just individuals as a constitution, but look at the granularity.

On an individual basis, I think we have these kind of savings account anyway being a challenge for the industry. Part of the reason would be that, otherwise— sorry, Narendra?

Rakesh Kumar

Yeah. Our retail deposit is better, which is CASA, and FD less than three crore is growing faster at 16% as compared to the total deposit.

Jaideep Iyer

Yeah. And

Rakesh Kumar

our granular deposit is growing at 15%, which is better than total deposit. Individual is showing lesser because

R. Subramaniakumar

we cut the rates from six and a half to five, seven and a half to six percent. On the retail deposit growth and granular deposit growth, we are growing at a faster rate.

Rakesh Kumar

Also, just third question, lastly, TD has, from the March number, it has fallen by approximately 40 bps to now. Considering that what is the fresh deposit fall that has happened in the system as per RBI number, what would be the acceleration in the additional fall in the TD cost?

Would it be around 70 bps or 80 bps? Assuming that there is a complete pass-through happening in the outstanding TD number also, in line with fresh TD number.

How do you think that would it complete in next six months, nine months, or one-year time?

Jaideep Iyer

I think it should complete in maybe a nine-month kind of a time frame. The typical average maturity of TDs would be in the nine to twelve-month zone on a blended average basis.

The latest cut, I think the issue is that I don't know, maybe we have another 20 basis points to go in terms of incremental TD cuts, at least in this cycle. Therefore I would not go to the extent of 70-80 bps.

I would say 30-35 bps is what we would have broadly as some more room to go in terms of overall TD cost of TD coming down

Rakesh Kumar

in the next three quarters.

Jaideep Iyer

In the next three quarters. Thanks.

Rakesh Kumar

From the liability side, actually, we are safely, we are very safe on the margin front on the liability side.

Jaideep Iyer

I think, I guess, in our case there are multiple plays on margins, right? We went through a period where there were rapid repo cuts, and there was a material reduction in our microfinance and card book contribution to total, right?

Now both seem to have bottomed out, and therefore we are, it's difficult to predict long-term, but clearly over the next three months, maybe six months, we should see margins improve a bit.

Rakesh Kumar

Thank you, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shailesh Kanani from Centrum Broking.

Please go ahead. Yeah.

Shailesh Kanani

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity.

I have two questions. First question is in

Operator

the— Mr. Kanani.

We are unable to hear you, sir. Your voice is breaking.

Shailesh Kanani

Is it better?

Operator

Yes, please go ahead.

Shailesh Kanani

Yeah. My question is with respect to Mr.

Kumar indicated that the retail secured portfolio has become contributing to the profitability at the gross level. Can you please provide a product-wise breakup in terms of profitable, breakeven, and yet-to-breakeven products?

Jaideep Iyer

Shailesh, I think prime housing, followed by prime LAP is, tractors is already profitable, gold is getting to be profitable. I think LAP is profitable.

Prime housing is yet to catch up. Small affordable housing and small LAP, given that it's a growth area, acquisition costs are still a little high, maybe that is just about breaking even.

Two things will drive profitability. One is obviously there is a back book which keeps growing and therefore giving you interest income without cost of acquisition.

Second, we are consciously keeping the mix in favor of small business loans and affordable housing, as you will see in the slides that we have presented, which has a faster breakeven time. Third, we continue to expect productivity gains on origination as well going forward.

I guess it's a combination of all of this in terms of improving profitability.

Shailesh Kanani

If I am understanding right, in terms of yet-to-break even, it is only prime housing is one segment which has yet to contribute to the breakeven? That is understanding right?

R. Subramaniakumar

Yes.

Jaideep Iyer

Yes.

Shailesh Kanani

Fair enough. Sir, my second point is with respect to wholesale lending.

Obviously macro has helped and this quarter the numbers were good. If you could throw some light, say once the capital comes in, two years, three years on the lending, in terms of mix we have been stable in terms of 60-40.

How would that number be in terms of retail and wholesale?

Jaideep Iyer

Let me tell you this is a precise number we would be able to say once we finalize our strategy along with the board. Naturally it is not going to be 60-40.

It will be definitely tending towards moderating in favor of wholesale.

Shailesh Kanani

In favor of wholesale. Fair enough.

Sir, just one question to harp again on credit card business, because we have had some misses on that income, especially post our tie-up with Bajaj. Can you shade some more light in the sense what gives us the confidence that the next two quarters, asset quality would improve?

Because in the past also we had given similar guidance, but somehow because of the macroeconomic factors beyond our control, we were not able to deliver on the asset quality and credit front. If you can throw some more light?

Jaideep Iyer

Shailesh, as we said, I think if we look at, portfolio originated over the last couple of years, leading indicators on that portfolio, underwriting changes that we have done and being demonstrated in terms of X flow bucket. We are seeing, other than some patches of cohorts as we mentioned, we are looking at significant improvement in line with our expectations.

There is clear visibility on improvement which we see from September quarter onwards. I think...

Shailesh Kanani

Yeah.

Jaideep Iyer

go ahead.

Shailesh Kanani

No, I was just listening. Yeah.

Okay. We are pretty confident this time around to deliver on a couple of quarters and the betterment in asset quality for credit cards, right?

Jaideep Iyer

I think, in terms of profitability, it's not only credit cost here, also significantly working on cost of collections and cost of business in general, which also got bloated because of high slippages and high collection cost. In terms of overall business outcome, if I dial back three years, it was significantly higher on revenue.

We have now the industry settling down to a structurally lower revenue business, and that has to be countered with both reduction in cost to assets as well as collection and slippages and credit cost. Bikram, you want to add?

R. Subramaniakumar

Bikram, Shailesh is looking for a confidence from yourself.

Bikram Yadav

Hi. Shailesh, after the transition of collection from Bajaj to us, we have done significant investment in collection infrastructure, and we have paused growth from third party, till the time we have full handle on collection.

As Jaideep has said, now our distribution muscle is ready, our refresh rate is ready, our collection infrastructure is also, in place and has been tested on scale. Our incident of defaults are significantly lesser.

They are right now at, I think, all-time lowest since we started the business. Our resolution rates are back in the required range.

Now what we are dealing with is a particular cohort, which we will, I think, sort over next two quarters or so, and then we should be back on in absolute full design levels.

Shailesh Kanani

That's very helpful, Bikram. Thanks a lot, and best of luck, everyone.

Bikram Yadav

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anchal from RSPN Ventures.

Please go ahead.

Ansel Lenty

Hello, am I audible?

Operator

Yes, you are. Please go ahead.

Ansel Lenty

Other than JLG, I just want to know the specifics about wholesale and other secured retail banking. How we see the other two segments of the bank going forward, not in the next two, three quarters, but I'm talking about after one, two years.

Jaideep Iyer

You are talking about, if I understand right, you are asking about the growth of wholesale banking and the growth of retail, secured. Is that correct?

Ansel Lenty

Yeah.

Jaideep Iyer

Okay. We have been growing wholesale at around 21, so that is a minimum pace, and it can't go below that, and it is going to go up.

In the near term, it will continue to be in the range of 25. In the long term, it will be much higher.

In respect of retail, we have been growing around 30%, 25 to 30%. In the near term, it will continue to be the same range.

In the long term, it will also go up by around another 5 to 10% more.

Ansel Lenty

Okay. On the JLG front, will the growth be as higher as we have in the last one year, about four quarters back?

Will it be possible for us to go ahead that kind of growth in unsecured sector?

R. Subramaniakumar

No, unsecured we have already come on record to say that we will not be growing this super 60. We reduced it from 36% to 26%, which will come down somewhere in the range of around 22 to 25 in that range.

If that is what you are looking at it, we will be growing in the range of around 10 to 15%.

Ansel Lenty

Thanks.

R. Subramaniakumar

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we now conclude the question and answer session.