Steel Authority of India Limited

Steel Authority of India Limited

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INR
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11.14EPS
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715.61BMarket Cap
Oct 27Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 2, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Steel Authority of India Q3 FY26 earnings conference call hosted by Nuvama Institutional Equities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during the call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. I now hand the conference over to Mr.

Ashish Kejriwal from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Ashish Kejriwal

Thank you, Aman. Good afternoon, everyone.

Once again, we welcome you all for Q3 FY26 post-result concall of Steel Authority of India. We are pleased to host Dr.

Ashok Panda, Director Finance, who is along with his team. Now, I would request Mr.

Panda for his opening remarks, and thereafter, we will open the floor for Q&A. Over to you, sir.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yeah. Thank you, Mr.

Ashish Kejriwal ji. Good morning, everyone.

I welcome all our investors and analysts who are joining this result concall for the financial results of SAIL for the quarter Q3 and nine-monthly FY25-26. Before we move to Q&A session, let me brief you on the results for the period.

Beginning with global economic scenario, the uncertainties and volatilities are almost stabilizing right now, as it seems. Global inflation has also been largely steady as of now.

The projections for GDP has improved in line with the same for economies individually as well as the regional as well as global averages. Global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3% in 2026 and expected to be 3.2% in 2027, rates similar to estimated 3.3% outturn in 2025.

The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 from the present levels. The projections for India have also been revised upwards to 6.4%, from 6.4% to 7.3% by various agencies.

It seems the economy is going to grow at a better rate. Far as global steel industry is concerned, the landscape for the global steel industry is influenced by economic trends, trade policies, and technological advancements.

Of late, it has seen positive movement in the demand and cost push in the prices, primarily because of increase in coal price as of now. In the Indian steel industry front, Indian steel industry continues to enjoy robust demand for steel, with consumption during nine-monthly FY25-26 grown by almost 7% over CPLY.

The growth in production of crude steel has been still higher at around 9.5% during the same period. This has led to India again becoming a net exporter, as exports grew by around 33% to stand at 4.8 million tonnes vis-a-vis imports, which has reduced by about 37% to stand at 4.65 million tonnes this time.

When we compare to last year, the scenario is totally different because this time the exports have been much more than the imports, and of course, the safeguard duty also is playing a role in this. We can find that there is some sort of stability in the domestic markets from December onwards.

We will now discuss about the company performance of SAIL for Q3 and nine-monthly FY25-26. Coming to the performance of the company during nine-monthly FY25-26, the highlights are as follows: crude steel production grew by 2% from 14.08 to 14.35 million tonnes, whereas saleable steel has grown by around 4% to 5%.

Sales volume grew by 16.3% for the company, and we have started outreaching to the retail as well as other consumers. Because of this huge growth in sales volume in nine-monthly, it has resulted in an inventory reduction by a good number as well as reduction in borrowings.

Revenue increased by 9% from 73,162 crores to 79,997 crores, broadly in line with the growth in the volume. PAT increased by 60% in nine-monthly of this year as compared to CPLY last year.

It is highlighting operational efficiency, liquidation of inventory due to sales growth, and cost optimization, as well as good treasury management. In other words, we can say it is due to better financial prudence.

Reduction in debt is close to 5,000 crores in nine-monthly, and in January alone, we have again reduced by around 2,000 crores, and momentum continues for February as well as March. Going forward, as the monsoon season and festive seasons are already over, we hope that the market will see an uptick in terms of pricing in quarter four, as the coal prices continue to remain range-bound, in fact, little on the higher side, and the market support is also there.

The margins will remain good in quarter four. This is what we are expecting.

Quarter four again, there will be better growth for SAIL. With these few words, I hand it back to Mr.

Kejriwal for opening the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

To ask questions, please press star and one. The first question is from Amit Lahoti from Emkay.

Please go ahead.

Amit Lahoti

Thanks for the opportunity. In the first quarter of FY26, we took 1,000 crore of inventory write-off due to falling coking coal prices.

Now that prices have gone up, was there any gain in Q3, and then how much it could be in Q4 at the current prices? That's my first question.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Should I answer this question? Answer to this question is that actually in the first quarter, as you said correctly, it was close to 1,000 crores of impact in the stock valuation rate on P&L account.

In quarter two, it was not much. In quarter three, we had a positive, and that could be somewhere around maximum 100 crores.

In quarter four, because the coal prices are on the rise, we expect that the cost of production is going to go up in quarter four. We have not yet estimated, but yes, it will have a good positive impact on the profitability as well as the margins, to say.

Amit Lahoti

Any broad number at the current prices, how much that could be? Is it 500 crore

Ashok Kumar Panda

or...? We can't exactly say, primarily because the coal price is increasing, but now it is a little bit stable at $251, but at the same time, our production level is also increasing.

They will nullify each other to some extent. Even then, we believe there will be an upward positive impact on the profitability.

The numbers anybody could guess could be around 200, 300, 400, but that we cannot say as of now. Obviously, it will be positive one, based on our guess.

Amit Lahoti

Got it. Then my second question on the expansion plans, as we have a sizable cost disadvantage compared to our peers to start with on the margins and cost, how much it could narrow once we start getting in the incremental volumes from expansion projects, particularly IISCO, which is coming 2 years from now?

How to think about that?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Far as IISCO is concerned, actually, we have a project over there which is around 36,000 crores estimated, and most of the major packages have been already ordered out. The ground activities have already started, and they are going to finish in 3 years' time.

That is the timeline. We believe after we get that, then the production volume, as well as the margin which will come from there, will really bolster our profitability to a greater extent.

For that matter, to accommodate those borrowings, we've already reduced our working capital borrowings quite a lot, as I've already told. We're keeping a margin to accommodate for the expansion capex.

Amit Lahoti

Okay. Is it possible to quantify that number, either in terms of, say, EBITDA per tonne or cost per tonne?

How much it could benefit once it comes in, any kind of rough number?

Ashok Kumar Panda

See, those will be new facilities. Right now, our EBITDA per tonne is, I think, just 1 sec.

Huh? EBITDA per tonne is so those numbers will be more than that.

Right now, around ₹6,000, hovering around ₹6,000 to ₹7,000 right now. Quarter four will be better than that, and we believe that ISP expansion, once expansion is over in time, then the numbers would be more than ₹10,000 per tonne from ISP expansion.

Right, okay.

Amit Lahoti

Just as a follow-up to this, is there any revised capex guidance for FY26 and '27?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yeah. The capex guidance for FY26-27 is 15,000 crores.

Amit Lahoti

15,000 crore for '27?

Ashok Kumar Panda

For '26-27. That is because actually, some of the capex payments towards IISCO expansion, will be there actually next year.

Amit Lahoti

Thank you so much.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Pinakin Parekh from HSBC.

Please go ahead.

Pinakin Parekh

Thank you very much, sir. My first question is, can you quantify the price increases that you have taken in December and Jan across flat and long products?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let me just tell you. Long.

You're talking about Jan or December?

Pinakin Parekh

December and Jan total.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Actually, the market started improving from middle of December, actually. Mhm.

Till November, it was subdued kind of. September, October, November were quite subdued situation.

Towards the end of December, market started improving, and started increasing prices in long as well as flat. In December, when you look at the actual increase of the prices got reflected in January.

It did not get reflected in December, either for long or for flat. The real increase of around say, ₹2,000 to ₹2,500 was reflected in January in long, and around, say, ₹3,300 to ₹3,500 in flat in January, so far as sales price is concerned.

The actual increases happened during the month of June in two, three tranches. All of that will get reflected in February.

That means in February, the real increase in NSR in sales price will be quite encouraging. Will be more.

Primarily because the coal price also is having upward journey. That's the reason why actually the prices are increasing in domestic market.

Pinakin Parekh

Sure, sir. Now what we understand is, sir, that the price increases at the trade level in India have been much larger, but the company-level price increases have been lagging so far.

Do you expect further price hikes at the company level in February and March?

Ashok Kumar Panda

That's what I'm saying, actually. In the month of January, because the price increase took place in two or three tranches during the month, all of that could not be reflected, because it got averaged out in the sales price of January.

That is getting spilled over to the next month. Means, in February, actually, you will find a good jump in sales price.

At the same time, I'm telling you that, actually, the coal price also, there is a good jump. Kind of they are going in tandem.

Pinakin Parekh

Sure. What is the coking coal cost increase that you see in the fourth quarter, because spot prices have surged to $250, average $184 in 3Q?

What kind of cost increase should we see? Now,

Ashok Kumar Panda

just 1 minute. Just 1 minute.

When we talk about imported coal price, in January, the average imported coal price is ₹18,500, and which is expected to increase by ₹1,200 in February, which is 19,700, and this is because of the weighted average arrivals and this stock quantities and all that. Otherwise, as you said correctly, the index has gone up to $251 per tonne.

It was hovering around $190, $185, $190. In February, we're expecting around ₹1,200 increase in consumption rate will be there, and in March, there could be an increase of another ₹1,000 over and above this.

Pinakin Parekh

Got it.

Ashok Kumar Panda

We don't know whether it will further increase beyond 251 or it will then taper down. I personally feel that actually it should not increase much.

It will stabilize, and after the situation improves in Australia, probably it will taper down.

Pinakin Parekh

Understood. Sir, my last question is that if you look at the sales volume that you have reported, steel sales volume, how much was NMDC volumes in this, and what would be the margins in that?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Come to that. NMDC volume, just 1 sec.

Total sales volume Total kitna hai? Just 1 sec.

Our total nine-monthly sales

Pinakin Parekh

Okay.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Total sales volume is 14.6 million tonnes, and NSL is 1 almost 1 million tonne.

Pinakin Parekh

Out of that, NMDC is 1 million tonne?

Ashok Kumar Panda

NSL, for that matter, it's 1 million tonne.

Pinakin Parekh

Sir, the margins on that steel sales would broadly be the same what you are seeing at your operating company? They are higher, lower?

How long will this arrangement continue?

Ashok Kumar Panda

See, this pricing is exactly as per SAIL, Steel Authority of India Limited. We are targeting their products in the mostly in the South market, so that is going exactly in line with our own products.

There is no difference in their pricing compared to pricing of SAIL, so far as the quantities that we are handling. There are some quantities which they are handling.

We can't comment on that. This is at par with SAIL products, in whichever market it is going.

Pinakin Parekh

The pricing is the same, but what about the costs, sir?

Ashok Kumar Panda

It is kind of an arrangement between NSL and SAIL. The delta, we can't exactly say right now.

I have to let's say check it out. Mostly, we are maintaining a price parity in the market.

Understood. Without any disadvantage to SAIL or NSL.

It is to an advantage to SAIL as well as NSL, as well as to the market players.

Pinakin Parekh

Got it. Thank you very much, sir.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Vikash Singh from ICICI Securities.

Please go ahead.

Vikash Singh

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.

Sir, my first question pertains to our employee cost, which has surprisingly gone down on sequential basis. First thing, that what is the main reason?

Secondly, how should we look at the employee cost going ahead in the next year since there is a mandatory wage revision would be coming in?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let me come to that, actually. Salaries and wages, which is around 11.5% right now.

As compared to last year, as compared to just 1 sec. It is almost at the same level, if you look at last year.

You're talking about quarter three, or what?

Vikash Singh

Sequential was a decline.

Ashok Kumar Panda

No, it is almost at the same level because I am finding that, whether it is quarter three to quarter three or if you look at quarter two to quarter three, then there is a reduction. That is just an adjustment of the actuary and all that.

That's a different thing. Broadly, if you look at 9M to 9M, both are remaining almost at the same level of 6,100 crores.

Last year also, 9M was 5,943, and now it is 6,080, broadly at the same level. When

Vikash Singh

I was looking at the 3Q, if you look at the last quarter, was 2,900 and almost 39 crore. It has come down almost 100 crore basically on a sequential basis.

What was the actuarial valuation difference which had not come this quarter, or there was a reversal or provision, if you could just give me that number?

Ashok Kumar Panda

There are two reasons for it. One is actuary, which is depending on the discounting factor.

That's a different thing, and factor is increasing. The other thing is basically the gratuity component.

As you can see, that in H1, we had taken a hit because of that kitna hai? 25 lakhs.

After achieving 50% in IDA, then it was increased to 25 lakhs. That was the reason why actually Q2 was appeared to be on the higher side.

Also the discounting rate is increasing, all put together, in Q3, we are finding that it is appearing to be a little less than that. The same thing will continue in quarter four as well.

Now coming to your other question of salary revision from 26 from that will happen from 27-28 onwards. It is not from 26-27, just to clarify.

Because it will be applicable from 1st January 2027. Most of that impact will come in 27-28.

At the same time, as you are finding, we are having around 50,000 number of employees on our rolls right now, who are legacy people. Every year, there is a hefty reduction in the manpower.

On the whole, because of manpower reduction, the cost is going to go down, and because of wage revision, which we do not know how much it will be, it will be calculated based on the guidelines. Guidelines not there in position right now.

We'll see. There will be plus and minus both the sides, there will be some net impact, maybe.

That will come in 27-28, not now.

Vikash Singh

Noted. Sir, my second question pertains to our product mix.

Since we have already reached at least the production volume peak out has happened, is there any scope for us to enrich our product mix, bring down the semis for the next year and bring up the EBITDA per tonne? Or the demand of these products are such a way that this would be difficult to do?

If you could give us some thought process on the company side on this?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let me just tell you. Before I give you numbers, let me tell you the context is that we've been trying to reduce the semis as much as possible.

One is by increasing our own production. Right now, semis percentage is 10%.

If you compare to previous years, it is less because our focus is on having finished products more than the semis by taking three, four-pronged actions. One is in the mills, we are trying to increase the production as much as possible by having better availability of the mills, better care regarding the equipments, etc.

Number two, we are having conversion contracts in place as well. We are maximizing that.

Through these two things, actually, we are trying to have more finished products in the market compared to the semis. The semis percentage has been coming down gradually.

Number two, at Durgapur Steel Plant, we've started one project, which is 1 million tonne TMT bar mill. That will come up maybe 2 years from now.

Already, ground activity started. Once that comes up, you will find that semis will be almost very close to 0 percentage at that point of time.

It is only a matter of time that we will see that semis will be zero.

Vikash Singh

By when this could be possible?

Ashok Kumar Panda

It will take around 2 years' time from now. 18 months, yeah.

It is 8 18 months' time. Already, ground work is already started.

If we are end of 25-26 right now, 18 to 24 months is the timeline. You can say 18 months' timeline for that, for completion of project activities.

After that, stabilization and commissioning, those things will be there.

Vikash Singh

Noted. Sir, just last

Ashok Kumar Panda

1 question on... How time is running out, please?

Vikash Singh

Yeah. Sir, just one last question about the news on the accident at the plant during 3Q.

Just wanted to understand had this anything spilled over to 1Q as well, or overall, production-wise sector, there was no loss?

Ashok Kumar Panda

If you're talking about the accident of...

Vikash Singh

Specifically because we are having this kind of incident every year, any step taken to control this?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Correct. If you're talking about the incident of Bhilai Steel Plant SMS, because you are not specific on that.

Are you asking about that question there? Sir, there was

Vikash Singh

one incident happened in Bokaro, and then just recently in Bhilai. Within a span of 4 months, there were two incidents.

I want more clarity about the recent Bhilai, which could have impacted the 1Q sorry, 4Q performance.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let me address these two questions. One is Bokaro, which we also discussed during H1, and one is the Bhilai, which happened right now.

Far as Bokaro is concerned, actually, that is already sorted out. It impacted us in quarter one in quarter two greatly, and now both the converters in SMS, steel melting shop, they are in full gear, and they are producing at almost 100% target levels.

Their SMS is all right, because of which blast furnace, they did not have any problem. Blast furnace has picked up.

Hot metal has picked up. Crude steel has picked up.

They are almost operating at 98% to 100% capacity right now. That is a story regarding Bokaro, and they will go like this in quarter four and going forward also like that, because we have taken certain actions that, in future, such tube leakages can be avoided in the converter, because we've got the spare parts and all that.

Now so far as Bhilai SMS is concerned, again, it is back on rail. In Bhilai SMS, the converter which had the vessel change, after that, actually, there is a bit of problem because of which spillover of metal had taken place, and it had burnt the electrical cables.

It was down for around 15, 20 days. Now it has come back, the production at Bhilai Steel Plant has again picked up to its normal level of around 18,000 to 18,500 tonnes per day of hot metal.

It had impacted us around 15 days, to some extent. Around 2,000 tonnes per day was the impact in physical terms for around 15 to 16 days.

Now it is completely all right, and in future also, in quarter four, it's not going to have any problem. All our five ISPs are full blast right now.

They're producing at the highest levels, and this trend will continue for quarter four.

Operator

Thank you. Before we move to the next question, a request to participants to please limit your questions to two per participant, so that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference.

The next question is from Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.

Pallav Agarwal

Good afternoon, sir. The first question was on the EBITDA bridge in your presentation from 2Q to 3Q.

There, one of the negative things has been shown as a volume impact. I thought, sir, we had an increase in volumes on a sequential basis.

Any reason for that negative impact due to volume?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yeah. Just 1 sec.

Between quarter two to quarter three, no?

Pallav Agarwal

Yes, sir.

Ashok Kumar Panda

That's primarily because of the reduction in production of saleable steel. Even if there is improvement in hot metal and crude steel to some extent, but saleable steel came down because of the reason that, actually, in the previous quarters, at RSP, new hot strip mill has more capacity, they were producing more by taking slabs from the excess stock of Bokaro Steel Plant.

Right now, because in Bokaro, hot strip mill has picked up and everywhere it is picked up, in-process stock has come down at Bokaro Steel Plant. That is the reason why, actually, at RSP, the saleable steel level remained low.

That was the primary reason for reduction in saleable steel volume in quarter three compared to quarter two quarter two. In quarter four, all the five plants, they have already increased their production, because all the capital repair, everything is over, all the mills are in full blast.

All blast furnace as well as SMS, they are at 100% level or more than 100% level. Availability of slabs for Rourkela Steel Plant to meet the higher requirement of HSM 2 will be there.

We'll be sourcing slabs from Bokaro as well as Bhilai to Rourkela to have that delta production at HSM 2, at Rourkela Steel Plant. That was the reason.

Pallav Agarwal

Primarily it's because of lower saleable steel production, not the sales volume, so that's led to...

Ashok Kumar Panda

As you can see, sales volumes have picked up like anything. Despite having bad market, it was around 16% growth in nine-monthly compared to previous year.

Pallav Agarwal

Okay. Sir, the other thing on the same thing, input price cost, there's a positive number.

I thought coking coal cost would have gone up sequentially, could you just clarify that as well?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Coking coal cost actually went up after December,

Pallav Agarwal

and

Ashok Kumar Panda

it is also having savings of the power cost in that. Coking coal partly, and mostly because of the power cost, because we are trying to reduce our power cost by sourcing it from RE power sources.

We've taken certain actions in different plant units, and that has given rise to some savings.

Pallav Agarwal

This should be structural, the saving going in?

Ashok Kumar Panda

This will be structural. It's a part of that, and will further improve.

We're working on that. It's a requirement as well.

RE power is a requirement for us, as well as by going for RE power, we're getting also price advantage in certain cases.

Pallav Agarwal

Sure, sir. Also, if you could just, the NSL volumes you gave you gave mention for the 9 months, could you also just give us the quarter third quarter volumes?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Third quarter volume, just hold on. 0.37, na?

0.37 million tonnes, quarter three.

Pallav Agarwal

Sure, sir. Thank you.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Raashi Chopra from Citigroup.

Please go ahead.

Raashi Chopra

Thank you. On your realization, what was the exact change in realization sequentially?

NSR?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Which one?

Raashi Chopra

NSR, what was the change from 3Q to from 2Q to 3Q?

Ashok Kumar Panda

From Q2 to Q3? In Q2, if you look at average NSR, in average NSR, there is a drop.

In Q2, it was 48,836. In Q3, it was 47,735.

If you compare between long and flat, in long, it has increased from 48,885 to 49,021. In flat, it dropped from 48,790 to 46,580.

There was a drop in NSR in flat as compared to long. Average NSR also, there was a bit of drop.

Raashi Chopra

Then on the coking coal cost, you mentioned that the Jan cost was 18,500. I assume this is your blended coking coal cost, right?

Not imported.

Ashok Kumar Panda

That is actually average, yeah. You're correct.

Raashi Chopra

What was that number in the third quarter?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Third quarter number was 18,351.

Raashi Chopra

18,350?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Third quarter number is 18,350.

Raashi Chopra

On the capex, you mentioned that in FY27, the capex is going to be 15,000 crores. For this full year FY26, what is the capex going to be?

Ashok Kumar Panda

For the full year, initial guidance was 7,500, and then final guidance is 10,000 crores. It will be anything between these two.

Raashi Chopra

How much has been spent in the 9 months?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Nine-monthly figure was 5,427 28 crores, 5,428 crores. 5,428.

Raashi Chopra

Got it. Thanks.

Just last question from me on the volumes. What are you targeting for this year and next year?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Just 1 sec. This year, if you see, April to December, hot metal volume is 15.14 million tonnes, and by year-ending, we expect Just 1 sec.

Raashi Chopra

Oh, sales. Just sales volume is good enough.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yes, I'll tell you. Let me complete this one.

Year-ending figure of hot metal could be around 20.5 or something like that, close to 21 million tonnes. Next year, we are targeting 22.5 million tonnes of hot metal.

Raashi Chopra

On the sales side?

Ashok Kumar Panda

On the sales side, let me tell you. Sales ka nikalo.

Sales volumes are on the higher side. If my saleable steel in nine-monthly is 14.2 million tonnes, and total sales volume in nine-monthly is 14.6, it is going beyond the production levels, and we are reducing our inventory.

Our inventory levels have come down. In nine-monthly, if you look at, our inventory levels are down by around 0.3 million tonnes as compared to starting of the year, both in-process as well as saleable steel put together.

Further reduction will be there. Going by this, we'll be able to achieve a sales volume around 19.5 year-ending, which will be more than the production.

Next, please.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Please go ahead.

Sumangal Nevatia

Good afternoon. Thank you for the chance.

Sir, first question is, I want to understand at the EBITDA level, is there any contribution from this arrangement of NMDC volumes, NSL?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let me tell you, actually, as I have already told, in case of NSL products, it's beneficial to NSL, to SAIL, as well as to the market players. That is purely based on the arrangements we've made.

Mostly, as I told you, it is just keeping a parity of the pricing strategies of SAIL in various regions. We had concentrated mostly on the South, so far as nine-monthly is concerned.

The quantities have already been told. There are positive margins.

However, the margins are small. It's not very high, but it has given a market stability.

All three fronts, people have benefited out of this.

Sumangal Nevatia

Okay. Sir, this year, when we are seeing about 16-odd percent growth, ex of NSL, it's around 7%,

Ashok Kumar Panda

8%.

Sumangal Nevatia

The guidance ex of NSL would be what, 18.5 million tonne volumes for this year?

Ashok Kumar Panda

For this year? 19.5 minus Yeah, you're correct.

Sumangal Nevatia

But 1 million tonne is already done in the 9 months, right? So,

Ashok Kumar Panda

1 million... 1 million is already done, and in quarter four, much of quantity may not come.

In a way, if we try to end up at 19.5, na, sales figure, Our own figure could be somewhere 18.5 to around 18.5 or something like that.

Sumangal Nevatia

Got it. In absence of new capacity, where can this 18.5 go in, say, next 2 years, '27 and '28?

Ashok Kumar Panda

In 26-27, let me address this question for 26-27 first. While in this year in 25-26, we are trying to finish hot metal at 20.5 to 21 million tonnes, we are targeting 22.5.

22.5 for 26-27. That means, that means you can say around 21 million tonnes of saleable steel in 26-27.

Then we can have further growth in 27-28. Once we achieve this particular growth, then we'll have further growth in 27-28.

You can say, in 27-28, it could be 23 million tonnes of hot metal and 21.5 million tonnes of saleable steel. After that, we will see that ISP modernization will be there.

Sumangal Nevatia

Okay. This is, sir, ex of NSL or including NSL's 1 million tonne?

Ashok Kumar Panda

This is ex of NSL.

Sumangal Nevatia

Understood. Sir, next year capex, we've substantially increased.

I think earlier, it was around 10,000. Now you're talking about 15,000.

Can you give a breakup and in this IISCO expansion, how much are we spending and what is the timeframe for the expenditure over next 2, 3 years?

Ashok Kumar Panda

For next 2, 3 See, IISCO capex total will be around 36,000 crores. From 26-27, we'll have major quantum of amount coming from IISCO.

IISCO amount could be somewhere around maybe around 7,000 to 8,000 crores in case of IISCO, so far as 26-27 is concerned. After that, it will again pick up.

Means, the peak figure will be in 27-28, and also in 28-29 for IISCO.

Sumangal Nevatia

Okay. Sir, the completion could be towards the end of '29 or maybe FY30 as well, right?

Ashok Kumar Panda

FY30, yeah. Somewhere around FY30.

Sumangal Nevatia

Understood.

Ashok Kumar Panda

End of '29 or '30, something like that, yeah.

Sumangal Nevatia

Okay. Sir, the coking coal cost which you shared, the increase in Feb versus 3Q average is just around 7%, 8%.

Is that the right comparison, because if you look at the dollar price, it's gone up by more than 20%? Have you got the numbers right?

It is 19,700 versus some 18,000...

Ashok Kumar Panda

Which one you're talking about?

Sumangal Nevatia

The coal cost, sir.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Coal cost.

Sumangal Nevatia

3Q versus spot, can you explain us what is the increase?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Average 3Q, actually, which we told, it is 18,351. That is basically because of the averaging of the stock out here, as well as the supplies we're getting from time to time.

The spot prices have gone up. The spot price is $251.

That is index price, and based on that, actually, we have 98%, 97%, etc., for from different sources. These prices are getting reflected slowly and slowly partly in February and partly in March, and also the effect is going to come in April as well.

As there is a time lag of around 1.5 months to 2 months for this prices to get reflected in the consumption.

Sumangal Nevatia

Okay.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Also dollar-rupee parity is also impacting this. Both the things are

Sumangal Nevatia

So on consumption basis, what is the quarter-on-quarter increase, Yeah, can you explain that, sir, on consumption basis? Yeah.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Because quarter two quarter two was 18,158, and quarter three is 18,351. There was not much of increase in quarter three.

In quarter four, you'll find an increase of around ₹1,500 over quarter three. This is what I'm guessing.

Sumangal Nevatia

Understood, sir. All right.

Thank you, sir, and all the best.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you.

Ashok Kumar Panda

That will be the last question, please.

Operator

We have one more. The next question is from Tushar Chaudhari from Prabhudas Lilladher.

Please go ahead.

Tushar Chaudhari

Yeah. Good afternoon, sir.

Thanks a lot for the opportunity. Sir, last quarter, we sold around 1,140-odd crores of sale of scrap.

How much was this quarter, scrap and byproducts?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let me just give the figure. Just 1 sec.

Can you ask the next question before you take up this one?

Tushar Chaudhari

Sir. Capex, you are saying 7,000 to 7,500 to 10,000 crores for FY26, and '27, it will be 15,000-odd crores.

Am I right on this? Okay.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Sir,

Tushar Chaudhari

there were some debottlenecking projects at DSP, RSP, BSP, which you talked about earlier. Can you throw some light on how much capex we will do for them?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yeah. Far as RSP is concerned, they've already completed caster number four, and the production is going to start now.

It's already started over there, so that part is over. Far as DSP is concerned, the debottlenecking, brownfield project has already started, and that will take around 18 months to

Tushar Chaudhari

Which piece is the TMT mill?

Ashok Kumar Panda

TMT mill, yeah, which is the TMT mill. At the same time, after TMT mill also, we are starting one blast furnace over there.

We'll knock off one old blast furnace. We'll start a new blast furnace.

Along with blast furnace, we have another converter, etc. Beyond TMT mill, we have also approved another package for them, and which will also increase the overall capacity of Durgapur Steel Plant by one 1 million tonne.

TMT is a mill which is 1 million tonne, and that is already activity is already started. It will be completed in 18 months' time, another 18 months' time.

This will reduce the semis to zero. After that, overall capacity of hot metal and crude steel will increase by 1 million tonne through another debottlenecking activities in which we are going to put up one blast furnace, one converter, and caster, and we'll knock off the old one.

Coming back to your first question, Q2 was 1,140. Now it is 1,279.

Tushar Chaudhari

1,279.

Ashok Kumar Panda

In quarter three.

Tushar Chaudhari

Okay. How much is the finished steel inventory now?

Ashok Kumar Panda

It has come down. Finished steel inventory, SAIL as a whole, it is around 1.5 million tonnes, and in-process inventory is 0.9 million tonnes.

Together, 2.4 million tonnes. As on 31st March, it was 2.7 million tonnes.

Tushar Chaudhari

Okay. Thanks a lot, sir.

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you very much. We'll take that as the last question.

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Ashish Kejriwal for closing comments.

Ashish Kejriwal

Yeah. Thank you, sir.

Sir, just before closing, one question from me also. We are talking about 19.5 million tonne of sales volume guidance for FY26, which means that and in 9 months, we have already done around 16.

14.6. Do you want to say that our fourth quarter volume will be more or less lower than third quarter, or because now 14.6, we have already done, and we have done 5.15 in third quarter?

How do we look at the volume in fourth quarter?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yeah. 14.5 is already done in 9M.

Our Q4 volumes will be more than that of Q3. Only thing is that, actually, in case of NSL, we may not take much of a volume from NSL.

That's the only consideration. We want to sell as compared to the other one.

The NSL numbers may be less in quarter four as compared to 9M. That's the reason.

Ashish Kejriwal

Overall, do you think that we can do 5.5 million tonne, because if that happens, then total volume will cross 20 million tonne?

Ashok Kumar Panda

Let's see. We are trying a lot, because as you can see in January, also we had a stock reduction of around 0.3 million tonnes, and February and March, I'm expecting optimistically 0.3, 0.3 million tonnes.

That's the reason we will make endeavor towards that.

Ashish Kejriwal

Sure. Sir, lastly, when you are talking about average price increase of around 3,000 in tranches in Jan, are you saying that we are going to increase further prices in February, or it's because the average price in January will be lower than the spot price?

Ashok Kumar Panda

No. There is an upward movement in the market right now because of the coal prices.

As you said correctly, the guidance is that it will be upward.

Ashish Kejriwal

Sir. Thank you so much.

Ashok Kumar Panda

In March also.

Ashish Kejriwal

Sir, any closing remarks from your side? We'll then end the call.

Thank you.

Ashok Kumar Panda

Yeah. Thank you very much for all the Q&A session and all that.

The second half of the financial year is always the best for steel industry. Things have already started looking up, and we hope that the trend and momentum will continue.

Meanwhile, steel demand is also significantly moving up, and with the improvement on the efficiency front and cost control measures, it will improve the margins in the balance period of the year, that is quarter four, despite having the coal prices remaining high. There will be a lot of inventory reduction in this quarter four, and borrowings will go down drastically.

Because of reduction in borrowings, the interest cost is going down. As in nine-monthly, our interest cost has come down by 500 crores.

We expect that another 500 crores reduction in inventory will additionally happen in quarter four. Overall for the year, interest cost reduction could be around 1,000 crores.

Also, the company remains committed towards sustainable performance, including emphasis on decarbonization, improving capacity utilization, value addition, reducing semis, and achieving cost competitiveness. We are also trying to reduce the cost as well as improve the top line.

You will find that in this particular year, your top line, which was remaining almost at 1 lakh crores earlier, now it is going for a big number in this year. I thank all our investors for reposing faith in Steel Authority of India Limited, and I am hopeful that the same shall continue in future as well.

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you very much. On behalf of Nuvama Institutional Equities, that concludes the conference.

Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.