FTAI Aviation Ltd.

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 26, 2026

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 FTAI Aviation earnings conference call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session.

To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Alan Andreini. Please go ahead.

Alan Andreini

Thank you, Kevin. I would like to welcome you all to the FTAI Aviation fourth quarter 2025 earnings call.

Joining me here today are Joe Adams, our Chief Executive Officer; David Moreno, our President; Stacy Kuperus, our Chief Operating Officer; and Angela Nam, our Chief Financial Officer. We have posted an investor presentation and our press release on our website, which we encourage you to download if you have not already done so.

Also, please note that this call is open to the public in a listen-only mode and is being webcast. In addition, we will be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures during the call today, including EBITDA.

The reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earnings supplement. Before I turn the call over to Joe, I would like to point out that certain statements made today will be forward-looking statements, including regarding future earnings.

These statements by their nature are uncertain and may differ materially from actual results. We encourage you to review the disclaimers in our press release and investor presentation regarding non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements, and to review the risk factors contained in our quarterly report filed with the SEC.

Now, I would like to turn the call over to Joe.

Joe Adams

Thank you, Alan. 2025 was a defining year, but I'd like to start today by highlighting the major achievements we've accomplished over the past 12 months, positioning FTAI for further success and market leadership in the years ahead.

We began the year with the launch of the Strategic Capital Initiative, or what we call SCI, raising our first fund focused on acquiring 737NG and A320ceo aircraft. This allowed FTAI to maintain an asset-light business model while the fund acquires narrowbody aircraft at scale.

The SCI investors benefit from FTAI's engine maintenance capabilities as well as our decade-plus track record of successfully investing in on-lease narrowbody aircraft. Market demand for the first fund was exceptionally strong.

Including our own 19% co-investment, in just 10 months we secured $2 billion in equity commitments, making SCI 1 the largest fund ever dedicated to narrowbody mid-life aircraft. Together with the support of our leading financing partners, Atlas, an affiliate of Apollo, and Deutsche Bank, we will invest $6 billion in total capital in Fund 1.

Deployment for 2025 has been strong with 130 aircraft now closed as of December 31. The portfolio has a large concentration of aircraft with engine maintenance needs, which leverages the fund's agreement with FTAI for engine exchanges and further differentiates our offering to investors.

I am also pleased to announce that we have started the fundraising process for SCI 2 off the back of great success we've had with the first vehicle. David will share additional details around the 2026 plan, but I can also share that we have an anchor equity commitment for SCI 2, which positions us to start investing out of SCI 2 once the first vehicle wraps up its final few investments in the next couple of months.

Turning now to results, Aerospace Products finished the year with great momentum, generating $195 million of Q4 adjusted EBITDA at a 35% margin, an increase of approximately 66% year-over-year and up 8% from $180 million in Q3 of last year. For the full year, we delivered $671 million of adjusted EBITDA, in line with our upwardly revised target of $650 to $700 million and well above our original goal of $600 to $650 million.

This represents 76% growth over the $380 million generated in 2024 and is over 4 times the $160 million we reported 2 years ago, only in 2023. Our growth is driven by the value we provide to the industry by offering readily available, fixed-price engines, a flexible and cost-efficient alternative to traditional CFM56 and V2500 shop visits.

We save our customers time and money, and our growth reflects the increasing market adoption of our products. The long-term outlook for the aftermarket on these platforms continues to strengthen as airlines increasingly opt to extend the life of their existing fleets rather than retiring aircraft for the newest technology.

Shop visits for the LEAP and GTF engines are not expected to surpass the CFM56 and V2500 until at least the middle of the next decade, supporting a long and durable addressable market for many years for us. We're seeing this inflection point in the market today.

Total maintenance spend is now expected to grow at a double-digit rate this year to approximately $25 billion per annum, up from $22 billion per annum projected last year. Retirements remain at historical low levels, and shop visit demand is shifting towards heavier maintenance overhauls that signal longer economic useful life for these engine types.

Altogether, these trends reinforce our confidence that FTAI's differentiated MRE, or maintain, repair, and exchange model, and competitive advantages position us to continue to lead the aftermarket. We remain firmly on track to achieve our interim goal of reaching 25% market share through a combination of new and repeat customers, as well as an increasing volume of engine exchanges from SCI funds each year.

Turning to production, we refurbished 228 CFM56 modules this quarter across our three facilities, an increase of 68% compared to Q4 2024, bringing our total for the year to 757 modules. This surpassed our 2025 goal of 750 and was an outstanding collective achievement by our 1,000-plus highly skilled and dedicated employees spread across 13 locations on three continents.

2025 was a defining year for our aerospace business as we continue to widen our competitive moat. Our multi-year materials agreement with CFM provides OEM replacement parts supply, thrust performance upgrades, and component repair, reinforcing our shared priority to extend the life of the CFM56 engines through an open MRO ecosystem.

This agreement enhances supply resilience, helps us meet strong demand from our customers, and supports the continued scaling of our core module remanufacturing platform. Before I hand it over to David to talk about our key priorities for 2026, I want to take a moment to congratulate him and Stacy Kuperus, who were appointed President and COO of FTAI earlier this month.

A well-deserved promotion for both David and Stacy. They've been exceptional leaders for many years at FTAI, and we're very grateful for their commitment to this business.

With that, I will pass it over to David.

David Moreno

Thanks, Joe. I would now like to talk about our priorities for 2026.

First, I'll share an outlook for Strategic Capital. We are pleased to report that the capital deployment for SCI 1 is largely complete.

As Joe mentioned, we closed 130 aircraft in 2025. As of today, we now have 276 aircraft closed or under LOI, representing $5.3 billion of our $6 billion target, and remain on track to be fully invested by the end of the second quarter.

As we complete the deployment of SCI 1, we have started the fundraising process for the next fund, and we can share that we have an anchor equity commitment in place for SCI 2. We expect to start investing SCI 2 by June 30th and look forward to continuing to execute on the strategy of combining on-lease aircraft investing and engine maintenance to generate outsized return with greater downside protection.

Our ambition is to become the world's largest manager of mid-life narrowbody aircraft, and we believe we're well-positioned to achieve this goal over the next few years. Shifting to our Aerospace Products production outlook, we are revising our 2026 target upward from 1,000 to 1,050 modules, representing a 39% growth compared to 2025.

We continue to strengthen the foundation of each shop in our maintenance network, which will support the next phase of growth. In Montreal, throughput continues to improve as our Training Academy scales, and the benefit of specialization and workflow optimization are now visible in daily output.

We began integrating Palantir's artificial intelligence platform, providing our teams AI-driven insights and actions to further reduce downtime, optimize our supply chain hub, and act as a significant accelerator to productivity. In Rome, since our joint venture began in Q2 of last year, we have almost doubled the employee base from 101 to 185 today, rapidly building the workforce needed to take on greater repair volumes at high levels of productivity.

The integration of Rome into the broader MRE network is in its advanced stages, and coordinated training in Montreal's Training Academy has accelerated the development of Rome's team's technical capabilities. At the same time, our investment in infrastructure and component repair capacity will support our goal to double production in 2026.

In Miami, our integration of last quarter's ATOP acquisition is progressing well and positions Miami to be a major hub for MRE production. We have added highly experienced engineers and technicians, expanded the floor space, and the proximity to our existing facility and test cell drives significant synergies.

The ATOP's Portugal facility is also being incorporated into our logistics network and is already making a meaningful contribution to our field service operations in Europe. We've also made significant progress with our two component repair investments, Pacific and Prime Engine Accessories, both of which position us for meaningful CFM56 repair cost savings this year.

At Pacific, we relocated the business into a new 75,000 square foot facility to support the compressor blade repair volumes required by our own MRE network. At Prime, we've invested heavily in tooling and equipment and are ramping up hiring so the Connecticut facility can become FTAI's global hub for engine accessory repairs.

With substantial progress across our facilities and the combined build-out of our broader MRE ecosystem, we are well-positioned to achieve further production growth in 2026 and beyond. Strengthening this foundation has been a major focus for us and sets the stage for the next phase of FTAI's evolution.

Finally, at the end of last year, we announced the launch of FTAI Power, our new platform dedicated to converting CFM56 engines into aeroderivative power turbines. This business has been in development for over a year and is built on the simple belief that the CFM56 engine, already the most proven and widely deployed engine in commercial aviation history, will play a critical role in meeting the world's accelerating need for electricity.

The surge in demand for AI data centers has created an unprecedented and long-term need for fast, flexible, and scaled power solutions. Traditional infrastructure was never designed for the scale and speed of demand we're now seeing.

With FTAI Power, we're adapting the world's largest and most reliable engine platform to deliver a 25-megawatt unit that offers grid operators greater flexibility and faster deployment. It's the exact same value proposition that has driven our success and scale in aerospace.

Before moving on from Power, we'd like to provide an update on our progress across five areas. Number one, engine feedstock and working capital.

Number two, facility readiness. Number three, our procurement strategy.

Number four, customer engagement. Number five, production timing.

First, feedstock and working capital. As we scale the Power platform, we are targeting approximately $250 million of working capital to support turbine feedstock and a rotatable pool of key components, including generators, gearboxes, and control systems.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, we increased inventory by approximately $150 million to secure additional turbines required to support our expected 2026 production ramp. We are intentionally building inventory ahead of demand to ensure execution certainty as commercialization advances.

Second, facility readiness. We have begun retrofitting our Montreal facility to establish a dedicated production line for the Power business.

As a reminder, our aerospace and power businesses must remain fully separate. Components that transition from aerospace into power applications will not return to aerospace service.

Maintaining this separation is critical both from a regulatory and asset integrity standpoint. Although the additional space is not required for 2027, we are planning well ahead for future expansions in Montreal, Miami, and Rome to support the growth of the business.

From a labor perspective, the core technical skill set required for the CFM56 platform directly translates to our power application, providing a strong operational foundation. In anticipation of growth across both aerospace and power, we scaled our Montreal workforce from approximately 360 employees at the beginning of 2025 to 570 today, representing an increase of roughly 60%.

In parallel, since opening our Training Academy in June, we have enrolled 220 trainees in total and are graduating over 50 per quarter, further strengthening our pipeline of skilled technicians to support sustained production growth. Third, we continue to refine our supply chain strategy for non-engine components and partners.

Our approach will be a combination of a multi-vendor sourcing of key components, collaboration with third-party vendors with proven track records, and the build-out of in-house capabilities that will allow us to control production from turbine to final assembly. Given the scale we aim to deliver in the market, this multi-pronged approach will give us the flexibility and the predictability to fulfill our commitments to customers.

Fourth, customers. We continue active discussions with hyperscalers and data center operators.

While we're not providing specific commercial details at this stage, engagement remains strong and focused on long-term deployment structures. As a reminder, the aeroderivative platform is highly versatile asset capable of supporting baseload, backup, and peaking applications.

We are currently seeing particular interest in baseload deployments, which aligns with our objective of establishing a durable foundation for long-term growth and which is consistent with our current theme in the market of bring your own power. Fifth, timing.

We expect the first production units of Mod 1 to be delivered in the fourth quarter of this year. Our confidence continues to increase as we progress through final execution milestones.

We continue to target 100 units of production in 2027. We are excited about the opportunity ahead and confident this platform will become a very significant contributor to FTAI's long-term growth.

I'll now hand it over to Angela to talk through 2025 numbers in more detail.

Angela Nam

Thanks, David. The key metric for us is adjusted EBITDA.

We ended the year strongly with adjusted EBITDA of $277.2 million in Q4 2025, which was up 10% compared to $252 million in Q4 of 2024. The $277.2 million EBITDA number was comprised of $195 million from our Aerospace Products segment, $113.2 million from our Leasing segment, and -$31 million from corporate and other, including intersegment elimination and startup expenses associated with our Power initiative.

As expected, aerospace EBITDA continues to exceed and outgrow aviation leasing's EBITDA. Now let's look at all of 2025 versus all of 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion in 2025, up 38% versus $862 million in 2024. Aerospace Products had yet another great quarter with $195 million of EBITDA at an overall margin of 35%, which is up 8% compared to $180.4 million in Q3 of 2025 and up 66% compared to $117.3 million in Q4 2024.

Overall, we generated $671 million of adjusted EBITDA for 2025 in Aerospace Products, in alignment with our revised higher estimates for the year of $650 to $700 million. Turning now to leasing.

Leasing continues to deliver strong results, posting approximately $113 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4. This included $20 million from the SCI through management fees and co-investment returns and $93 million from leasing assets on our balance sheet.

We expect the mix of leasing EBITDA to continue shifting towards the SCI as we launch new SPV partnerships each year on a programmatic basis and pivot away from balance sheet aircraft leasing. For the full year, aviation leasing generated $609 million of leasing EBITDA in 2025, just above our target for the year of $600 million, including $54 million from Russian insurance claim recoveries.

We also ended the year at 2.6 times leverage on the low end of our targeted range of 2.5 to 3 times agreed upon with our rating agencies. In addition, we were pleased to see recognition of our improved credit last quarter with two-notch upgrades from both S&P and Fitch.

With these actions, we have now achieved our objective of maintaining a strong double B rating across all three agencies, reflecting the continued strengthening of our balance sheet and the durability of our business model. Lastly, in 2025, we generated $724 million of adjusted free cash flow compared to our original guidance of $650 million and revised guidance mid-year of $750 million.

This figure is further adjusted for three key investments we made in the fourth quarter to support our 2026 growth initiatives. First, Strategic Capital, where larger fund size and faster deployment pace increased our co-investment by $52 million.

Second, FTAI Power, where as David mentioned, we proactively invested $150 million in additional turbines to support the 2026 production ramp. Third, we invested an additional $50 million in hot section parts, a critical input for our engine maintenance business in a market where parts access is very tight.

With that, I'll hand it back over to Joe for final remarks.

Joe Adams

Thanks, Angela. As we close out 2025, I want to reiterate how proud we are of what the FTAI team has accomplished.

This was a year defined by execution, scale, and strategic progress across every part of our business. We launched the SCI platform and completed the fundraise for the inaugural vehicle, launched the fundraising for SCI 2, expanded our global MRE footprint, and laid the foundation for FTAI Power, all of which strengthens our competitive position and supports durable long-term growth.

Our Aerospace Products segment continues to demonstrate the power of our MRE model, delivering exceptional year-over-year growth and establishing a clear leadership position in the CFM56 and V2500 aftermarket. Our aviation leasing business is evolving into a high-quality, fee-driven asset management platform with recurring earnings and expanding co-investment opportunities.

Following a very strong start to 2026, we're even more confident in achieving the guidance we outlined last October. We're updating our outlook to increase total EBITDA by $100 million, split half attributable to an increase in Aerospace Products and half from leasing coming primarily from insurance settlements tied to Russian asset recoveries.

As a result, we now expect total business segment guidance of $1.625 billion, up from $1.525 billion. This includes $1.05 billion from Aerospace Products, up from $1 billion, and $575 million from aviation leasing, up from $525 million.

2026 is going to be a year of continued growth and new business launches at FTAI. Our new initiatives are bigger and growing faster than we originally projected, and we will be making larger investments in growth to maximize value and speed to market.

While we remain confident in our original target to generate a billion of free cash flow, after incorporating several positive developments and incremental growth investments, we now expect 2026 free cash flow of approximately $915 million. This reflects $100 million of additional EBITDA, less $85 million of increased SCI investments tied to the launch of SCI 2, and $100 million of additional power working capital to support the 100-unit production pipeline for 2027.

As a growth business, it's our priority to pursue high-return opportunities, and we are confident that these investments across SCI, Power, and Aerospace will drive meaningful value into 2027 and beyond. As a result, redistribution of capital remains a strong consideration, and therefore for the second consecutive quarter we're increasing our dividend from 35 cents to 40 cents per share per quarter.

The dividend will be paid on March 23rd to shareholders of record of March 13th, which marks our 43rd dividend as a public company and our 58th consecutive dividend since inception. Overall, we enter 2026 with strong demand, a robust production pipeline, and a clear strategy to scale both our engine maintenance and asset management platforms.

The investments we've made in our facilities, our people, and our broader ecosystem position us to meet rising customer needs and capture the significant opportunities ahead across aviation leasing, the aftermarket, and now the rapidly growing power requirements driven by AI. I want to thank our employees around the world for their dedication and hard work, our partners for their continued support, and our shareholders for their confidence in our long-term vision.

We're excited for the year ahead and look forward to updating you on our progress. With that, I will give it back to Alan.

Alan Andreini

Thank you, Joe. Kevin, you may now open the call to Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone.

If your question has been answered and you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. We will pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster.

Our first question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Hi. Good morning, guys, and thank you.

I have two questions, please. The first one would be on AP margins.

When we look at Aerospace Products margins, they've been nice and steady at the mid-30s level throughout most of this year, and you've talked about reaching 40% potentially in '26. Can you talk about how the access to the PMA blades and now CFM, the materials deal supports the margin profile and mix going forward, along with some of the other initiatives you've been taking to support margin upside?

Joe Adams

Sure. Thanks, Sheila.

When we talked about growing our margins from 35% to 40%, we mentioned three parts to that. First was the PMA HPT blade, which has been approved.

Second was additional lower cost parts supplies, which we've now achieved through both buying use additional used serviceable material, but importantly with the deal that we did with CFM, which included parts and repairs. Then third was continuing to grow our piece-part repair capability, which we, as David mentioned, we've advanced significantly with Pacific Aerodynamic in California and the Bauer joint venture in Connecticut.

We've also added a lot of piece-part repair capability in Montreal, and we continue to add a lot of repair capability. It's been a priority of ours for the last, as we mentioned, for the last 3 years, and it's critical to sort of maintaining a low-cost position and developing competitive advantages in the, in the overhaul of those engines.

Great progress on all those. Everything we wanted to have in place to achieve that 40%, margin is in place, and we are very confident that we have the capability to do that, to grow that in 2026 to 40%.

I will say, on the further positive development side, the there are a number of the large airlines in the world or largest airlines in the world that are increasingly in the mix for our MRE products, I'd say more so than ever before, and over the last, 12 to, 6 to 12 months, we've increasingly, been engaged on bigger deals. If we have the opportunity to accelerate, market adoption and pick up some of the bigger programs, we will prioritize that over, adding incremental margin, to the business.

If we can get more EBITDA from a broader base of customers faster, that we believe is more valuable than, simply increasing, percentage points of margin. That sort of way I would give the, state of affairs today.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Perfect. Then if I could ask another one on FTAI Power.

It sounds like through the commentary from David and the slides that you guys feel comfortable you have the right inventory to support the launch of the Power business here. Can you maybe talk about steps from now through 2027 in terms of how you expect to achieve 100 units next year from a labor and equipment perspective, and secondly, how you're thinking about ultimately your ability to service these turbines once they're in the field?

David Moreno

Sheila, this is David. I can take that.

Just as far as the ramp-up first, right? We've been working on the Power initiative for over a year.

As we mentioned earlier, we've been leveraging the same infrastructure that we have, which includes our Montreal facility, which as we mentioned, we've been hiring at a rapid pace. We feel very good about production for 2027.

In general, going from 0 to 100, as far as production units for Power, is going to go a lot faster than when we started Aerospace going 0 to 100. That's for the same reason that we're leveraging the infrastructure that we have, as well as the feedstock of engines.

We see that as very complementary to our Aerospace business. Now the second piece as far as maintenance and the opportunity there, we actually think this is a very important piece of our business model, not only from a revenue standpoint, but from a value prop to our customers.

We're not going to provide exact numbers on the revenue opportunity, but just to give you just a general flavor, the engine the turbine itself is going to have a similar lifecycle as it does for aerospace, which means every 5 to 6 years, it's going to require maintenance. As the business scales, that's going to be the aftermarket servicing of that is going to be a significant opportunity for us.

From a customer standpoint, as our ethos as a company is all around zero downtime for our customers. We're going to leverage the same exact exchange model that we've had a lot of success with, which is the turbine and module exchange model, to offer that as a big differentiator in the market.

It's going to set us apart from a lot of competitors.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

Your line is open.

Kristine Liwag

Hey, good morning, everyone. I guess one, with the assets you need to acquire for SCI 1, and Joe, you've launched SCI 2, though that would be my follow-up question.

Let me finish this one first. You've got the assets you've got to acquire for SCI 1, the higher 2026 module target from 1,000 to now, 1,050 that David called out, and you've got the donor cores for the 100, power conversions for next year.

Can you talk about the sourcing environment? Where are you getting this from, and how's been the pricing in that environment, and are you able to source all this volume?

The follow-up to that would be, you've got also the launch of SCI 2. How large could be SCI 2?

Joe, you had previously mentioned that normally the second fund is larger than the first fund, and your first fund is a $6 billion. Just wanting to understand, how you could support all this growth.

Sure. Thanks for the question.

Going back, as we've mentioned, the investment opportunity in current-generation narrowbodies is probably $30-plus billion a year of total investments. Our goal was to achieve $6 billion a year, and which is a meaningful part of that, but not a disproportionate amount of those assets.

Joe Adams

We've been successful being able to do that largely by focusing on assets that have a high level of shop engine shop visit intensity, which as you can expect is that's where our natural advantage is because we have inventory, we can manufacture engines, whereas other financial buyers typically do not. We've focused on that part of the market.

In sort of a macro sense, a lot of lessors and a lot of airlines took the advantage to keep assets longer, coming out of COVID because lease rates were going up and asset prices were going up, and every airline needed that lift. It was a great environment to hold on.

People have reached sort of limits where now they're getting new deliveries, average age of the portfolio has pushed out limits with debt investors. We're seeing more and more volume coming to market, and we're a great counterparty for lessors and for airlines, because we can solve engine problems, which is usually the biggest problem that in the space.

As you mentioned, the $6 billion, we estimate we'll end up with about 350 aircraft in that first fund. That's 700 engines that will be fully committed to FTAI Aviation under the MRE contracts.

By the middle of this year, we'll start investing out of SCI 2. I believe that we'll probably launch the size of SCI 2 around the same size of $6 billion, which, as you remember, was double what we originally launched SCI 1 at was $3 billion, then we raised to $4 billion and ultimately did $6 billion.

We'll probably launch SCI 2 at $6 billion. Our goal as a business, as we stated before, was to grow the asset management business to a $20 billion business, which this puts us in a very nice position to be able to say we're on track to achieving those goals and making it a significant, a significant player in that industry and the largest in the world for current-generation narrowbodies.

It's been great. Then when we launched it, people were a little bit taken aback by the size, but we've been able to do very good deals, get great returns, generate solutions for airlines.

Airlines, in many cases, now recommend to their other lessors that they sell to FTAI because they like the fact that they don't have to do engine shop visits anymore. It's really a nice flywheel that's in motion now.

Kristine Liwag

Great. That sounds like, you're able to source all of the volume to feed, these businesses, right, Joe?

Joe Adams

If you think about the Power business, one of the markets, if you take the total engine universe size of about 20,000 CFM56 engines in the world, and the estimated retirement rate from the market is generally between around 2% to 3% per year. If you take 2%, that's 400 engines a year get parted out every year.

For the Power business, if you just go buy 100 of those and say, 'Don't part them out.' They're worth more to us than they're worth in the secondary market for part value.

You have you could get 25% of the part-out market and satisfy your needs for the Power business every year. It's such a huge market.

And 2% a year doesn't really estimate, if 2% a year existed in perpetuity, it would take you 50 years to use up the CFM56 market. It's going to get bigger.

I just use that as an example. We have not been an active buyer of engines that were part-out candidates previously, but we will be now.

Kristine Liwag

Super helpful. Following up on the FTAI Mod 1 that you expect to have ready for the 4Q this year, can you talk about the technical specs of this derivative so far as you do that conversion?

How's been the efficiency of this as a gas turbine? How does it compare with other things in the market?

Also, look, to get to the 100 next year, do you have these orders lined up? How firm are your discussions with customers, and what would be the distribution of your customer set for next year?

How firm are those?

Joe Adams

I'll start and then pass to David, but I from a spec point of view, we estimate that the efficiency of the aeroderivative will be comparable to other aeroderivatives in the market. We are estimating a 25-megawatt output, it puts us in a nice size range, with a 35% to 40% efficiency and a 9,000 heat rate.

Very similar to other aeroderivative options in the market today, which have been sold for 30 to 40 years, it's not a new product. We think we're competitive with that.

We think ultimately the reliability and durability of the CFM56 will prove to be a competitive advantage from an overall total cost, basis, in that we think that the servicing cost and the maintenance costs will ultimately be lower. It'll take some time for us to prove that out.

That's sort of the first part of the question. You want to take the second?

David Moreno

As far as interest, as I mentioned, we're seeing a significant interest on baseload applications, and what's really resonated as far as the Mod 1 with customers really three things, right? Number one is scale and reliability.

The scale of engine, feedstock, as well as the reliability of the CFM56. It's the engine that's flown the most amount of hours, it's the most reliable engine ever produced.

The second point is speed to power, right? Everyone wants power now, not only just being able to deliver the units, but also actually putting them on site.

Being a trailer-mounted unit and being deployable very fast in about 2 weeks is really a key advantage for our product. Number three is ultimately flexibility.

We talk about flexibility across the entire business, but this unit is no different: 25 megawatts, which is a perfect size for stacking for data centers that are growing. Then we talked about the maintenance piece, which is, we're going to offer flexible maintenance, which is going to be a key differentiator for the product.

Overall, there's a lot of interest for long-term use. As we mentioned, we're trying to set ourselves up with what's for what's best long term.

We're going to be updating, the market as kind of we progress through that, when appropriate for us.

Kristine Liwag

Great. Thank you very much, guys.

David Moreno

Thanks.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point.

Your line is open.

Giuliano Bologna

Good morning, and congrats on another great print. As a first question, when you look at module production, the production this year was greater than what was originally targeted.

I'm curious what are the things that are driving that production and how that's being impacted.

Stacy Kuperus

Sure. Thanks.

Hi, this is Stacy, and thanks for the question. I'm very proud of the work our team did in 2025 on module production.

As a reminder and as Joe said, in 2024, we had a total or 2020 in Q4 of 2025, we had a total production of 228 modules, which is approximately a 68% increase from Q4 2024. This was a tremendous accomplishment by the teams and the result of disciplined execution with clear focus on three things for us, which is our people, our parts, and process.

First, on the people, our Montreal Training Academy launched in 2025, and as David mentioned, has enrolled over 220 trainees. We've developed our own in-house training program, which includes augmented reality technology, and has improved graduation rates and shortened training times.

Second, on parts, we've made targeted investments in 2025 to expand our repair capabilities through Pacific Aerodynamic and Prime Engine Accessories. We've also upgraded significant piece-part repair capabilities inside our facilities in Montreal and Rome.

Combined with our strategic agreement with the OEM, these steps establish a strong foundation for our parts strategy that position us for success 2026. Lastly, on the process, supported by our partnership with Palantir, we've been optimizing our operations across all locations, which includes from asset management to supply chain.

Leveraging AI-driven insights has allowed us to unlock additional efficiencies. Building on that digital foundation, we've also strengthened collaboration across the shops, sharing best practices and creating synergies through our MRE network.

I think looking ahead for 2026, our goal is to increase production by approximately 39%. We feel very confident that based on all of these things, and this gives us our confidence in our ability to continue to scale.

Giuliano Bologna

That's very helpful. Maybe as a slightly different topic, and hopefully this hasn't come up yet.

Sometimes towards the end of the year, some sales could flip around from quarter to quarter, especially around year-end. I'm curious if that could have had any impact on the fourth quarter results this year specifically.

Joe Adams

Yes, it did. The Aerospace Products EBITDA came in a little bit less than what we thought it would be, a few months ago, and it was primarily two reasons, one of which was we've added over 100 employees to the business.

There is a slight lag, I would say, not a major lag, between costs and productivity, there's some impact from that. Then secondly, as you point out, there's some customers who preferred to take delivery in Q1 as opposed to Q4.

We did have a few engines that slid from 2025 into 2026. Being a very customer-focused, organization, we accommodated those needs.

Everybody has budgets. Yes, there's a little bit of that, but I think it was a combination of the two reasons, for the difference.

Giuliano Bologna

That's extremely helpful. I appreciate the answers and then I will jump back in the queue.

Joe Adams

Thanks.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Josh Sullivan with JonesTrading.

Your line is open.

Josh Sullivan

Hey, good morning.

Joe Adams

Morning.

Josh Sullivan

Just on cash flow, given the investments here in Q4, how do we think of '26 and the cadence of investments through '26, just the puts and takes?

Joe Adams

I'll start. I think it's a great opportunity in 2026 in that we have more cash flow available and more growth opportunities available.

We're very excited about it. I'll pass it over to Angela to give you the details.

Angela Nam

Happy to. For 2026, we do expect to generate $1.2 billion in free cash flow before any new growth initiatives.

As mentioned by Joe, with the revised adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026, we expect an additional $100 million, $50 million more from cash flow in Aerospace Products with the additional production, and another $50 million in leasing from settlement of Russian claims. What you also saw in our 2025 free cash flow walk was that we've called capital on our SCI 1 earlier by $52 million, so that improves our cash flow in 2026.

That overall is an increase of $152 million to the 2026 free cash flow, getting us to $1.2 before the growth initiatives. As mentioned by Joe, we do expect acceleration of our SCI 2 investment, increase of about $137 million in 2026 as we will call capital earlier for deployment.

Then secondly, for the remainder of our $250 million WIP that we expect for Power, $100 million related to that. That brings us to the $915 that we shared with group.

Josh Sullivan

Got it. Then just one on the continued struggles of the OEM supply chain, Airbus adjusting deliveries here, can you just comment on any impact on the leasing environment, aircraft, engine, or leasing duration?

Any comments you can make just on the general environment?

Joe Adams

We continue to be in love with the CFM56 and the V2500, and it just keeps getting better and better. We didn't expect as much of a tailwind, but the current assets, the existing fleet is so durable, predictable, reliable, and importantly, it just makes money for the operators.

That's what drives retirements is not technological, it's economic. The lower the cost we can drive on the engine maintenance and the better, and the other, newer assets, seem to be going in the opposite direction, which just gets better and better for us in terms of longevity.

Josh Sullivan

Great. Thank you for the time.

Operator

One moment for our next question.

Myles Walton

Thanks. Good morning.

On the Power initiative, is it fair to expect a relatively steep delivery ramp through '26 to get to that 100 for deliveries in '27? A steep delivery ramp through '27 to get to the 100 deliveries in '27.

What does that mean for the exit rate of production or deliveries into 2028?

Joe Adams

I would say we haven't really mapped all that out yet. We've got, 10 months before January of 2027 to gear up and set what we would expect to be a monthly production rate.

We've got ample time. We've got all the material that we need, to go into the end products that's required from third parties.

We've already got multiple counterparties identified. We've got purchase orders that have already been executed.

We're planning ahead. I wouldn't say it's going to be a very steep We know our goal would be to make it not terribly steep, in terms of the ramp-up, and given that we have, ample time to do that, I think it'll just make for a more efficient production.

The other thing is we may do multiple locations. We may not just do one location in terms of assembly, we can have different, sort of a diversification of supply and geography that will help also smooth that out.

Myles Walton

Got it. Joe, it sounds like you're not seeing really much of a cannibalistic effect of this Power initiative.

You sort of talk to the 25% share on the growing MRO business, which gets you to $6 billion of revenue there at 40% margins, and then this Power business looks like it's another, $2 to $3 billion of revenue. You're talking about building a $8 to $9 billion business at 40% margins in Aerospace Products.

Is that sort of where you're leading us to?

Joe Adams

Sounds good to me. No, I think we don't see it as being at all cannibalistic.

I think it's complementary in that the natural extension of the life after, an aerospace life of, 30 years is a ground-based operation. It's a perfect, life extender for the CFM56 and V2500, as other aeroderivatives have proved out before this.

The supply of both, raw material, if it's just not parting out an engine instead of parting it out, that doesn't take away from the existing supply of aerospace engines. The labor force is different.

The third-party vendors are different. It really is, an add-on as opposed to detracting in any way from what our current aerospace business is.

Myles Walton

All right. Thank you.

Joe Adams

Thanks.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from David Eslami with Barclays.

Your line is open.

David Eslami

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I guess following up on that, could you give any more color on your expectations for margins in the Power business, and specifically, why you think your part of the value chain here in this delivery is going to earn you the type of margins you've previously talked about?

Joe Adams

What we've said on margins, to date is that we expect the margins to be as good or better than margins in our Aerospace Products, business today. One of the main reasons why we're very confident of that is that the we have assets that are nearly fully depreciated that we can repurpose into a whole nother life when and add potentially 10 to 20 years of life onto assets that we previously otherwise might have been scrap.

We have an a cost of input on the turbine that no one can match and a supply of that that no one can match and we also have built up repair capabilities, sourcing of used serviceable material, parts, PMA, everything available known to mankind. We have already been working on that for the past 7 years.

There's nobody that could come close to us in terms of the input cost of a turbine. That is the most expensive and complicated and constrained part of the Power business today.

If you talk to anybody, they'll tell you what they the biggest constraint on the power side right now is getting turbine blades, HPT blades in particular. That we've solved that by taking an existing asset that is near at or near the end of its life and then creating a whole new life for it.

David Eslami

Thanks. Then could you talk about the strategic M&A strategy, how that plays into the Power business, and specifically, do you need to execute on that strategy to get to your margin target or that can stand alone?

Joe Adams

No, it's stand-alone. We've built FTAI solely really almost exclusively with organic growth, to date, and that's always our base case.

If we find ways to accelerate it that are available, that are at reasonable costs, we will always look at that or take advantage of those opportunities. We always start with a base plan that we can execute on our own, and then if we can figure out a way that makes it better is is is something that we can do faster or cheaper, we will look at that.

That's our plan is basically organic and do it ourselves. If we have an opportunity, as we've done with adding some maintenance facilities or repair businesses in the aerospace side, we could we will look at that as well.

David Eslami

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Shannon Doherty with Deutsche Bank.

Your line is open.

Sathish Sivakumar

Oh, hi. Good morning.

We're very pleased to see GE Aerospace and CFM's endorsement of the FTAI business model. Maybe Joe or David, congratulations on your promotion, can you provide us more color on the partnership there?

Joe Adams

It's something we think was very positive, works well for both parties. The agreement itself is a multi-year deal that covers three things: supply of parts, piece-part repairs and component repairs, and thrust.

From an FTAI point of view, it allows us to have more access to more parts and volume at good pricing, which means we can scale and grow our business while continuing to drive down costs. From the CFM perspective, what they've expressed to us is their value proposition to their customer is based on an open aftermarket.

An open aftermarket ultimately delivers the best product, the lowest cost, the lowest total cost of ownership, and the longest life for that asset, which means, if we working together, what we can do is create bespoke solutions for customers, as we've done with SCI and we've done with many airlines, and we can optimize green-time and ultimately save customers time and money, which means the asset flies longer, which means you sell more parts, and so everyone wins. At the same time, we can provide PMA for customers who like those products.

We have a great portfolio of solutions for the whole market.

Sathish Sivakumar

That's great. Joe, as a follow-up, did you mention that you're going to do 350 aircraft in SCI 1?

I think that original target was going to be 375, and is that going to be the same size for, SCI 2? You're looking at 350?

Joe Adams

It should be about similar. I think the three, 350, sometimes if you buy slightly younger, vintaged aircraft, you pay a higher price per aircraft just because you have more life on it.

It's going to swing around. It could vary, by the types of deals we end up doing, but 350 is a good number for both.

Sathish Sivakumar

Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Brian McKenna with Citizens.

Your line is open.

Brian McKenna

Great. Thanks.

Good morning, everyone. You're still clearly in growth mode here and you're leaning into a number of opportunities.

This does come with some upfront costs and investment and including hiring. When you look across the business today, specifically some of the newer initiatives, where are you incrementally adding headcount?

How should we think about the pace of hiring into 2026? Then is there a way to think about the related impact to cash comp as well as stock-based comp?

David Moreno

This is David. As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, as well as comments from Stacy, we've been actively growing the workforce.

We're going to continue to do that, in general in the market. There's a constraint of talent, for technicians out there, and we want to make sure that we're always, controlling that and we're able to get ahead of that.

Obviously, what was very key to that initiative was the Training Academy, which allows us to take talent and incubate that within our organization. We're going to continue to do that in 2026, right?

As obviously, we're expecting to get to our 25% target on the aerospace, as well as add Power. I would expect similar ramp-up as far as employee headcount to each the shop, as well as we're also looking at other opportunities for shops, let's say, east of Rome, right?

We've talked about in the past opportunities in, the Middle East, as well as in Southeast, Asia. Those are opportunities to grow headcount, and I don't see us stopping that anytime soon.

Brian McKenna

That's helpful. Thanks, David.

Then on SCI 2, clearly, a ton of focus on private credit in the market today. Really the focus has been entirely on corporate direct lending in areas like software.

I would actually argue all this volatility is probably a good thing for capital flows into areas like asset-based finance, and there's been increasing demand for hard assets that are more insulated from AI. This is exactly the kind of exposure that sits within SCI.

I'd love to get your thoughts here, what you're seeing from a demand perspective for SCI 2, and then has sentiment or conversations shifted at all as fundraising starts to pick up here for the successor fund?

Joe Adams

Yes, we're seeing that. I think that, if investors are looking for asset-based, uncorrelated, cash, contracted cash flow, you came to the right place, right?

We have that. We are in a great position, I think, on a sort of absolute basis and a relative basis in the market.

All of our capital is locked up. It's private equity style funds.

We feel like we're, we have a terrific product. I was reading recently about what they call the HALO trade, which is heavy assets, low obsolescence, and that's the new theme, and we certainly qualify for both of those.

We feel very good about the market and where the private credit opportunities that we can offer to people, how they compete with other things in the market, and I don't think that fundra- I should never say something won't be hard, but it feels like we're in a really good position having, fully invested Fund 1 and launching Fund 2 in this market.

Brian McKenna

Great. That's helpful.

Appreciate it, guys.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Our last question comes from Andrew Maller with BTIG.

Your line is open.

Andrew Maller

Yep, good morning. I know for competitive reasons you've decided not to share an anchor customer, and I know somebody kind of pointed to this earlier, but I don't know if it was answered clearly.

I just want to hit it head-on. Are there is there just one customer lined up?

Are there several lined up? Can you provide any color on the order book or if a fleshed-out order book even exists right now?

Really any color to show that there's firm customer demand for Mod 1.

Joe Adams

We have an anchor investor, as we announced, and we have a number of other investors who are currently invested in Fund 1 that want to re-up. Demand from the existing group of investors is being reflected as quite strong.

In terms of deal flow, we have a pipeline of deal opportunities that we've been working on. One of the things that when we started SCI 1, we really started into a new business from a cold start.

In other words, we had no pipeline and not a lot of deal flow. We built that up and were able to invest in 18 months the $6 billion of capital.

Now we have a pipeline of opportunities we've been working on. Some deals can take 6 months, 9 months, a year in some cases.

The more that we have been at this, the more developed we have as a pipeline and feel very good about the ability to deploy that money.

Andrew Maller

Sorry, Joe, I said Mod 1. I meant FTAI Power, if there's one or several customers lined up.

If the order book exists, yeah, for Mod 1. My apologies.

Joe Adams

No problem. I thought we were still on SCI, but...

David Moreno

As we mentioned, right? We're being very strategic on how we take on these orders.

We're talking to hyperscalers, data, center operators. Some of these folks want the entire capacity.

Look, our focus is beyond 2027 and in the outer years, right? We want something that's going to be 10, 20 years-plus durable.

I think now we understand we have a key asset, which is the turbine, and it's our best, and it's job to just do what's best for the company long term. We're going to provide updates as we progress through those 100 units, right?

Just right now it's not the right time from a commercial standpoint to do so.

Andrew Maller

Got it. Then I know you said in the press release you say Mod 1 development is on track, but can you provide some more specific updates of what steps remain here on out?

I think you might have alluded to some earlier, but maybe if there's a more step-by-step plan that you could outline.

Joe Adams

Really what we said is we've done substantial amount of testing. Everything is designed, parts are ordered, and we will produce the first unit this year.

That's kind of the most that's really the highlights that we've given so far.

Andrew Maller

All right, I appreciate the color. Thanks, everyone.

Joe Adams

Thanks. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A portion of today's presentation. I'd like to turn the call back over to Alan.

Alan Andreini

Thank you, Kevin, and thank you all for participating in today's conference call. We look forward to updating you after Q1.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation.

You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.