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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 27, 2026

Operator

Welcome to the Seagate Technology fiscal second quarter 2026 conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode.

Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two.

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shanye Hudson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Shanye Hudson

Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to today's call.

Joining me are Dave Mosley, Seagate's Chair and Chief Executive Officer, and Gianluca Romano, our Chief Financial Officer. We've posted our earnings press release and detailed supplemental information for our December quarter results on the Investors section of our website.

During today's call, we'll refer to GAAP and non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures are reconciled to GAAP figures in the earnings press release posted on our website and included on our Form 8-K.

We've not reconciled certain non-GAAP outlook measures because material items that may impact these measures are out of our control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted. Therefore, reconciliation to corresponding GAAP measures is not available without unreasonable effort.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and assumptions based on information available to us as of today. They should not be relied upon as of any subsequent date.

Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements as are subject to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. To learn more about these risks and uncertainties and other factors that may affect our future business results, please refer to the press release issued today and our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, as well as the supplemental information, all of which may be found on the Investors section of our website.

Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call up for questions. In order to provide all analysts with the opportunity to participate, we thank you in advance for asking one primary question and then re-entering the queue.

With that, I'll turn the call over to you, Dave.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, Shanye, and hello, everyone. Seagate closed out calendar 2025 with a record-breaking quarter driven by sequential revenue growth across nearly all end markets.

December quarter financial results exceeded both top and bottom line expectations, and set new company records for exabyte shipments, gross margin, operating margin, and non-GAAP earnings per share. We expanded non-GAAP gross margin above 42%, supported by the execution of our pricing strategy along with an improving mix of our high-capacity drives as HAMR shipments ramp.

Looking at the entire calendar year, 2025 marked a transformational period for Seagate, both financially and operationally. Over the calendar year, we increased revenue by over 25%, improved gross margins by nearly 740 basis points, and expanded operating margins by an even greater amount, demonstrating the profitability leverage in our financial model.

2025 also solidified HAMR technology as the long-term enabler of mass-capacity storage. We ended the year shipping 3 terabyte per disk Mozaic-based HAMR products to our first CSP customer, and by year's end, quarterly HAMR shipments exceeded 1.5 million units and have continued to ramp.

Mozaic 3 HAMR drives are now qualified with all of the major U.S. CSP customers, and qualifications for our second-generation Mozaic 4 terabyte per disk products are tracking well to plan.

These developments align with our long-term areal density roadmap that extends to 10 terabytes per disk, which we expect to deliver early in the next decade. I want to thank our Seagate teams around the world for exceeding our performance expectations and delivering outstanding value to our global customers.

We continue to operate in an exceptionally strong demand environment, particularly within the data center end markets. In the December quarter, we saw sustained demand growth for our high-capacity nearline drives across global cloud data centers as well as continued improvement from the enterprise edge.

Based on our built-to-order pipeline, we anticipate these positive demand trends will continue for some time. Our nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and we expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027 in the coming months.

Further out, demand visibility is strengthening based on the long-term agreements in place with major cloud customers through calendar '27. Additionally, multiple cloud customers are discussing their demand growth projections for calendar '28, underscoring that supply assurance remains their highest priority.

We will continue to meet strengthening demand through our strategy to maintain supply discipline and satisfy exabyte growth through areal density advancements, and without increasing unit production volume. In the December quarter, our average nearline drive capacities rose by 22% year-over-year, approaching 23 terabytes per drive, with those sold to cloud customers averaging significantly higher.

This trend underscores the strong adoption of our higher capacity drives to support demand growth. At the same time, revenue per terabyte sold has remained relatively stable, reflecting the effectiveness of our pricing strategy.

Seagate is well positioned to continue benefiting from the combination of powerful secular tailwinds and supply discipline. Video applications continue to drive significant demand for hard drives, with platforms like YouTube witnessing 20 million video uploads daily, up from just 2 million 3 years ago.

This staggering pace of growth extends to other cloud video platforms, and doesn't yet include the full surge in content generation expected from emerging AI-driven video applications. These applications are not only fueling social media uploads, but are also transforming how organizations turn their data into tangible value, enabling personalized marketing, interactive education, and advanced simulations capable of training manufacturing, engineering, healthcare, and other professionals.

The strategic value of data is further underscored as new applications and use cases emerge across cloud and edge workloads. Among the most promising of these is agentic AI, which relies on persistent access to large volumes of historic data to enable effective planning, reasoning, and independent decision-making.

Adoption is already gaining momentum, with one recent survey conducted by a leading cloud service provider reporting more than half of participating customers were actively using AI agents. Early adopters are already realizing measurable returns, with benefits ranging from lower costs to increased revenue opportunities.

With the deployment of AI agents at the edge, where untapped data often resides, we believe the stage is set for a sustained and meaningful increase in data generated and stored that will support inferencing, continuous training, and also maintain model integrity. Modern data centers have evolved to address the complexity and scale that massive workloads bring through sophisticated data tiering architectures, ensuring that the right data is available at the right time and place.

Hard drives are essential to these architectures, anchoring the mass capacity data tier that stores the vast majority of exabytes. From storing the checkpoint data sets used to train and maintain model integrity, to supporting vector databases that provide the context necessary for accurate inference results and agentic AI performance.

By leveraging hard drives, data center operators, whether in the cloud or on-prem, can achieve the optimal balance of performance, capacity, and cost efficiency at scale. Against this transformational backdrop, Seagate's HAMR technology roadmap positions us to meet growing demand and deliver ongoing TCO improvement for our customers.

HAMR is a proven technology, with large volumes of drives running in cloud production environments for more than 3 quarters now and performing well across a broad spectrum of use cases. We are systematically ramping our Mozaic 3 HAMR products to qualified customers while maintaining focus on optimizing the profitability of our available supply.

As noted earlier, Mozaic 3 is now qualified with all major U.S. CSP customers, and remains on track to have all global CSPs qualified within the first half of calendar 2026.

Additionally, qualifications of our second-generation Mozaic 4 products are progressing well. We expect to begin the ramp of Mozaic 4 later this quarter, and have multiple CSPs qualified in the coming months, in line with our plans.

We continue to set the pace for the industry, recently demonstrating 7 terabytes per disk capability in our labs. As one of our largest CSP customers recently aptly described, hard drives are engineering marvels, a sentiment that we obviously share.

Our deep expertise across mechanical engineering, material science, nanoscale fabrication, and now advanced photonics not only enables Seagate to deliver on the HAMR roadmap, but also creates a durable competitive moat for hard drive technology well into the future. Wrapping up, 2025 was a milestone year for Seagate in every respect: financial performance, operational execution, and technology leadership.

We are carrying this momentum into calendar 2026, supported by a powerful demand backdrop as new AI applications start to complement traditional workloads. We will remain highly disciplined and focus on expanding profitability through our higher capacity product mix, underpinned by the strong economics of HAMR.

Our areal density roadmap positions Seagate to sustain the core TCO and efficiency advantages of hard drives as data creation and storage requirements accelerate in the AI era. We believe this foundation creates a compelling long-term value proposition for the company, our customers, and our shareholders.

I'll now turn the call over to Gianluca to cover our results in greater detail.

Gianluca Romano

Thank you, Dave. Seagate delivered another quarter of strong year-over-year revenue growth and set new record profitability metrics in the December quarter, underscoring the durability of data center demand trends.

Additionally, we strengthened our financial position by retiring $500 million in gross debt and generating over $600 million in free cash flow, marking the highest level in 8 years. December quarter revenue came in at $2.83 billion, up 7% sequentially and up 22% year-over-year.

We achieved non-GAAP gross margin of 42.2%, up 210 basis points sequentially, and we expanded non-GAAP operating margin by 290 basis points sequentially to 31.9%. Our resultant non-GAAP EPS was $3.11, up 19% quarter-over-quarter.

These strong financial results demonstrate our ability to execute our strategic objectives, including leveraging our technology roadmap to support demand growth. To that end, we shipped 190 exabytes in the December quarter, up 26% year-over-year, while keeping overall unit capacity relatively flat.

The data center market accounted for 87% of our shipment volume, supported by ongoing demand momentum from global cloud customers and sequential growth across enterprise OEM markets. We shipped 165 exabytes in the data center market, up 4% sequentially and 31% year-on-year.

Data center revenue grew at roughly the same pace, totaling $2.2 billion for the quarter, up 5% sequentially and 28% year-on-year. Against this strong demand backdrop, both cloud and enterprise customers are transitioning to higher capacity drives.

Average cloud nearline capacity increased to nearly 26 terabytes in the December quarter, and will continue to grow with the ramp of HAMR-based Mozaic products. As Dave highlighted, Mozaic drives are running very well in production environment and meeting all performance, reliability, and integration expectations.

In the enterprise OEM market, we are benefiting from slight improvement in traditional server units along with increasing demand for storage servers, driven in large part by the adoption of AI applications and need to store data at the enterprise edge. The edge IoT market made up the remaining 21% of revenue at $601 million, supported by anticipated seasonal improvement for consumer products and the VIA client market.

We project the broader VIA market to grow over time, with the largest growth contribution coming from VIA nearline products that are captured as part of our data center end market. Moving on to the rest of the income statement, non-GAAP gross profit increased to $1.2 billion, up 13% quarter-over-quarter and 44% compared with the prior year period, significantly outspacing revenue growth.

Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 42.2% in the December quarter, up from 40.1% in the prior period. This improvement reflects the ongoing execution of our pricing strategy and the growing adoption of our latest generation high-capacity products, which collectively drove a modest sequential increase in revenue per terabyte, a trend we expect to continue into the March quarter.

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $290 million, relatively flat quarter-over-quarter and in line with our expectations. Operating expense as a percent of revenue declined to 10.3%, rapidly trending towards our long-term target of 10%.

The combination of strong top line growth and significant financial leverage drove an 18% sequential improvement in non-GAAP operating profit to $901 million, almost 32% of revenue. Other income and expenses were $70 million, reflecting slightly lower interest expenses on the reduced outstanding debt balance.

We currently project other income and expenses to remain relatively flat in the March quarter. We grew non-GAAP net income to $702 million, with corresponding non-GAAP EPS of $3.11 per share, based on tax expenses of $129 million and a diluted share count of approximately 226 million shares, including the net impact of our 2028 convertible notes.

Turning now to cash flow and the balance sheet, we invested $116 million in capital expenditures for the December quarter, or roughly 4% of revenue. We are maintaining capital discipline while we continue to transition and ramp HAMR technology.

To support these objectives, we anticipate capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be inside our target range of 4% to 6% of revenue. Free cash flow generation was strong at $607 million, up 42% from the prior quarter.

Looking ahead, we expect free cash flow generation to further expand in the March quarter, supported by sustained demand trends, operational efficiency, and capital discipline. These factors position us well for durable long-term cash flow generation.

Cash and cash equivalents totaled just over $1 billion at the end of December quarter, with ample liquidity of $2.3 billion, including our undrawn revolving credit facility. During the December quarter, we returned $154 million to shareholders through dividends.

We retired approximately $500 million of exchangeable senior notes due 2028, which serves to limit further dilutive impact from these notes and optimized cash deployed for future share repurchases. Our resulting gross debt balance was approximately $4.5 billion exiting the quarter.

Net leverage ratio improved to 1.1 times, based on adjusted EBITDA of $962 million for the December quarter, up 16% quarter-over-quarter and up 63% year-on-year. We expect the net leverage ratio will trend lower as profitability and cash generation increase, while we continue to evaluate opportunities to further reduce debt.

Turning now to the March quarter outlook, the demand environment remains strong, particularly among global cloud customers. As a result, we expect data center demand will more than offset typical March quarter seasonality in the edge IoT market.

We expect March quarter revenue to be in a range of $2.9 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which represents a 34% year-over-year improvement at the midpoint. Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $290 million.

Based on the midpoint of our revenue guidance, non-GAAP operating margin is expected to approach the mid-30s percent range. Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $3.40, plus or minus 20 cents, based on a tax rate of about 16% and non-GAAP diluted share count of 230 million shares, including estimated dilution from our 2028 convertible notes of approximately 7.6 million shares.

Seagate's strong December quarter performance and March quarter guidance underscore our continued focus on driving growth, enhancing profitability, and optimizing cash generation. Based on our current outlook, we expect to deliver sequential improvement to both the top and bottom line throughout calendar 2026, and remain in a strong position to enhance value for both customers and shareholders over the long term.

Operator, let's open the call up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

To withdraw your question, please press star then two. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question.

If you have further questions, you may re-enter the question queue. Once again, that was star then one to ask a question.

At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today will come from CJ Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Please go ahead.

CJ Muse

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question.

Given the supply-demand dynamics, you're obviously in the catbird seat, and wanted to really try to get some more detail on gross margins going forward. Your philosophy historically has been to share the gains, both your customers and yourselves.

At the same time, given this tight environment, you are raising like-for-like pricing. Curious, is there a framework to think about in terms of the incremental gross margins that we should model from here?

Then I guess maybe bigger picture, as you think about overall average pricing per exabyte, we've gone from kind of down double digits to high single digits, and I think we just exited the quarter down 4% year-on-year. Do you see a world where pricing could flat or even move positive year-over-year?

Thanks so much.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, CJ. I'll let Gianluca chime in here as well, but the pricing will be dictated by the demand.

Right now the demand is really strong. I think as we roll through into '27 and '28, we look at how much capacity we're bringing online by virtue of the fact that we're making all these aggressive product transitions, we'll bring more exabytes to bear, and then people go out there and renegotiate for those.

I think flat to slightly up is certainly possible, and that's the way we're really managing it as we talk to our customers. The value proposition of the new drives as they go up 5, 10 terabytes at a time is pretty strong.

Gianluca Romano

Hey, CJ. On the gross margin, we are executing very well.

We are executing a little bit better than what we discussed at our Investor Day, where we presented the model with a 50% incremental margin above $2.6 billion of revenue. Now, we have done better every quarter.

Of course, it's our objective to continue to optimize what we produce, what we sell, and finally the profitability that we can get from the product. The model cover a longer period of time, 2, 3 years, not 2 or 3 quarters, but, no, I'm positive we are continuing to progress in the right direction.

CJ Muse

Thank you.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, CJ.

Operator

The next question will come from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Wamsi Mohan

Yes, thank you. I have a similar type of question.

I guess the gross margins in the guide and the incremental quarter-on-quarter gross margins in the guide are very strong. Can you maybe help bridge the drivers between mix and price?

Obviously, you've got better mix of data center revenue next quarter, but just wondering if you can dimensionalize that. The opportunity for pricing, Dave, you just said sort of flat to up is possible, but as we think about the pricing that might be getting embedded within these LTAs and sort of beyond '26, why can't that be a lot higher just given the tightness in the supply-demand environment?

Thank you.

Dave Mosley

I think this gets into how persistent is the demand going to be, Wamsi. We talk about 2 or 3 years from now.

The one behavioral change that I really like in the last year is that people are starting to say, "If I can't get it now, I'll plan next year better and the following year better." We're having great dialogues on that front.

Of course, supply has risen quite a bit in the last year, supply of exabytes from the industry. The industry has reacted pretty well.

I think demand is still pretty strong, and my perspective on this is I think demand will stay strong for quite some time. In that kind of world, we're having great discussions with customers further out in time, and the biggest part that helps us in our planning is through these product transitions.

They know that's how they get more exabytes.

Gianluca Romano

Wamsi, we are saying in the script, Dave, that for the rest of the calendar year, we expect revenue and profitability to continue to improve sequentially every quarter. We're not implying in any way that this trend is changing.

It's actually, no, getting better somewhat.

Wamsi Mohan

Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Erik Woodring

Great. Good afternoon, guys.

Thank you for taking my question, and congrats on these results. Incredible.

Dave, at your analyst day last year, you kind of pointed to a mid-20% exabyte growth CAGR, and I'm just wondering where you think that supply growth can land this calendar year, and as you get closer to that HAMR crossover point later this year, does that pace of exabyte growth accelerate? I'm just asking this because demand is clearly outpacing supply.

Can you maybe just help us try to better understand the shape of your exabyte supply growth, because obviously it'll dictate kind of exabyte shipments for the year. Thank you very much.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, Erik. We are planning to transition to 4 terabytes of platter, and fairly aggressively, but I think what people have to keep in mind is that we were fairly tight all throughout manufacturing.

We have products that are in the pipeline already that are committed to customers and so on, and we don't just move very quickly to 3 or 4 terabytes of platter as things come. It's a good problem to have actually, running manufacturing quite, quite tight right now.

I think it'll be a fairly prescriptive ramp, to your point. It won't be as fast as maybe we've done some ramps in the past, but it'll be very profitable, and that's the way we look at it.

As we go further out in time, I'm very optimistic that the 4 terabyte per platter is a very strong product. It'll start to replace some of the other legacy products.

I'll say that way, and cuz it has so much better value proposition in a lot of those markets, and then when that happens, then we see more opportunity.

Erik Woodring

Great. Thank you, guys, and best of luck.

Dave Mosley

Thanks.

Operator

The next question will come from Asiya Merchant with Citi. Please go ahead.

Asiya Merchant

Great. Thank you for taking my questions, and great results here.

Just a couple that are related to the prior question. You guys gave some projections on HAMR, not just for fiscal year '26, but even into fiscal '27.

If you could talk about upside to achieving those targets for the HAMR rollout. Related to that, how we should think about the blended cost reductions?

Pretty impressive, again, margins here and guiding for improved profitability. If you could talk to us a little bit about the cost reductions going forward, especially as you ramp HAMR here with the Mozaic 4, that would be great.

Thank you.

Gianluca Romano

Yes, Asiya. I would say, first of all, we are very happy with the transition to HAMR.

Now, we qualified the last big cloud service provider in U.S., and we have qualified 6 out of 8 of the top cloud service providers. The transition from PMR technology to HAMR technology is progressing very well, and we are, no, qualifying the new product, the 4 terabyte per disk, the 40 terabyte per drive.

Of course, this will help with the increase in exabyte in term of mix. We gave a good indication, I think, at our Investor Day, and, no, and we want to be aligned to that.

The cost will be favorably impacted, especially when we start ramping high volume of the 40 terabyte drive. Of course, that will drive a fairly important reduction in cost per terabyte compared to the current HAMR, and of course, will be a good contributor to further increase our gross margin.

Operator

The next question will come from Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Karl Ackerman

Yes, thank you. Gianluca and Dave, I was hoping you could clarify what portion of your LTAs or overall nearline HDD capacity has fixed or multi-quarter pricing agreements?

I ask because as these LTAs roll off throughout 2026, and new agreements would be locked in at higher values reflective of not only demand and use case, also widening price per terabyte gap between enterprise hard drives and HDDs. Thank you.

Shanye Hudson

Karl, the second part of your question was a little fuzzy, we captured the first part, but might ask you for clarity on that second.

Karl Ackerman

Sure. Yes, obviously.

I'll just repeat if I could. As these LTAs roll off throughout 2026, I would imagine those new LTAs will be priced at perhaps a higher value or higher order value, particularly given the widening gap between hard drives and SSDs.

If you'd comment on the mix of LTAs and how you think that progresses throughout '26, would be great. Thank you.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, Karl. As we roll off, say, for example, somebody might have been qualified on a 2.4 terabyte per platter product or something, and then they might be qualifying a 3.2 or even a 4 terabyte per platter as we roll forward.

Based on the demand that we see and our available supply, we change the pricing dynamic there. I think that's one of the biggest things you're pointing out.

I'll say that '26 is fairly booked. We talked about that in the call, that to the extent that we can outexecute our plan, it'll be marginal, like you saw last quarter.

We get the qualifications done a little faster, we ship a few more drives, that's how we can do better than plan, but other than that, it's fairly predictable in '26, and we're looking to start '27 the same way.

Karl Ackerman

Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jim Schneider

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question.

I was wondering if you could maybe address, given everything you just said about demand and about the the mix effect from HAMR this year, maybe can you give us any kind of directional guidance about where you might expect exabyte shipments to end up on a calendar '26 versus calendar '25 basis, relative to the sort of long-term targets you've you've laid out previously? It seems like you could do materially better than that, but I'm just wanted to con- confirm what your expectations were, if you'd give us a numerical range.

Thank you.

Gianluca Romano

Hey, Jim. No, we are not guiding calendar '26, but we said in our financial model, we said that we expect nearline exabytes to grow in the mid-20%.

We have done a little bit better if you look the last few quarters, and we always, as Dave said before, we always try to extract as many exabytes we can from our manufacturing. Now we are continuing this trend, but we don't guide calendar '26.

Dave Mosley

Moving from 2.4 per platter to 3 per platter to 4 per platter, you can see that we're on a trajectory like you describe. It's when it gets down to the individual customer level, obviously we have to be very predictable cuz they need what they need and what we've committed to in order to build out that data center.

We'll continue to execute that plan, and maybe we do a little bit better as we transition to 4 terabytes per platter.

Operator

The next question will come from Amit Daryanani with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Yep.

Amit Daryanani

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.

I guess, Gianluca, I'm hoping you can talk a little bit about the March quarter guide, cuz it seems to be a really sizable uptick in gross margins. I think it's up 250 basis points, or 100% plus incrementals.

Is there anything you'd call out in March quarter that's unique that's helping drive that kind of margin expansion? Is this really all coming from the core HDD business, or is there a potential benefit from the old systems business that's helping you as well?

Thank you. Hey,

Gianluca Romano

Amit. I would say, no, we expect to be a very good quarter.

I don't think it's different than what we have done before. It's always based on the pricing strategy and the mix.

As we qualified another customer on HAMR, we will ramp a little bit more volume on HAMR. This is helping us to get better margin.

Fundamentally, it's not really a difference in how we think we are going to execute the quarter. No, and it's good.

No, I think the incremental margin looks very good.

Dave Mosley

It's not the systems business. The systems business is doing well, but it's fairly small scale in comparison.

Amit Daryanani

Got it.

Operator

The next question will come from Mark Newman with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Mark Newman

Yeah. Hi, thanks for taking my question, and congrats on great numbers today.

Just wanted to touch again on the LTAs and pricing arrangements you have. Just curious, do you think there's an opportunity here for more significant price increases?

In NAND flash, we're hearing things like 40 to 100% up Q-on-Q for some contracts. I appreciate hard disk drives, you have a very long-term agreements, but I think there's a lot of questions.

I'd like to just touch on this as well. As the LTAs roll off, is there an opportunity for some of those to be repriced at a more significantly higher price to change the trajectory?

Certainly, numbers are great you're printing. We're just trying to figure out could you start to see more significant price increases, whereas at the moment, you're seeing kind of flattish, down a little bit, up a little bit, but overall your average prices are flat, which I understand is a mixture of like-for-like slightly up, offset by new products coming in at lower price.

Just wondered if that may change. Then if there's any update on the trajectory of the HAMR mix that you have outlined before?

Thanks very much.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, Mark. A a couple points.

On the HAMR mix, we necessarily constrained ourselves on the 3 terabyte per platter because the factories were fairly full, and we knew we would be going to the 4 terabyte per platter product, we've been leaning harder on that, didn't making sure it gets through the development and qualification phases. As time goes on, then we'll move off and onto the 4 terabyte per platter very aggressively.

That, if that helps you on the mix side. The other thing about HAMR mix is it'll be necessarily mixed up.

I think the demand for those products will be at the high capacity points, not necessarily the lower capacity points just yet. Then relative to pricing, I think I I said before, as we as one long-term agreement rolls into the next year, the next year, we've satisfied our existing supply commitments, then people are looking at the new products.

We have constrained supply of those new products, then we look at what the demand is, and we dictate where our pricing is, and I I one of the very first questions I said that's it could be flat to up a little bit. I, that's the way I think about it right now, but it all depends on what the demand is.

If the demand continues very strong, that's great. Again, what we're seeing is people who can't get what they need today, they're saying, "Okay, I need to be able to plan my data center procurement out in the future.

Let's get more predictable in the future." It's given us better visibility.

It helps her run us run our factories for better costs and so on, so that's great.

Mark Newman

Thanks so much.

Operator

The next question will come from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Krish Sankar

Hi. Thanks for taking my question.

I just want to put in two parts. One is how much was HAMR as a percentage of your exabyte shipment last year?

How much do you expect it to be this year? The genesis of the question is I'm just trying to figure out, obviously a lot of questions on the very strong gross margins.

If there's a way to put it in three buckets, like how much of the gross margin upside is driven by pricing, how much is driven by product mix, how much is driven by cost reduction by offshoring manufacturing? Thank you.

Dave Mosley

There's really no offshoring manufacturing or anything like that involved. Our manufacturing operations around the world are doing quite well and quite full, so that's helping from a cost perspective.

Really no change in any manufacturing strategy to speak of. I would say a lot of what the benefits we're seeing is mix, and mix not just because we're actually transitioning into better products over time, but also because the demand for those products is quite high.

You think about it, if you're building a data center with a 3 terabyte per platter versus a 4 terabyte per platter, you're going to be running that data center for a long time. You want the higher capacity point, and to the extent that we can do that as predictably as possible, that mix is what's driving the stability out in the market for us and helping us plan.

Gianluca Romano

Yes, Krish. We don't give, no, specific details on the impact of pricing, mix, and cost, but they are somehow interrelated.

The change in mix is helping with the cost reduction and the supply-demand situation is, of course, supporting our pricing strategy. No, they are all very good contributor to the increase in gross margin, and as we said before, no, this is going to continue through the calendar year.

Krish Sankar

How much was HAMR as a percentage of mix?

Gianluca Romano

Dave gave an indication of the unit that we shipped in the last quarter, I think you can fairly easily calculate that.

Krish Sankar

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Gianluca Romano

Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Steven Fox with Fox Advisors LLC. Please go ahead.

Steven Fox

Thanks. Good afternoon.

I guess I was just wondering on your mix question, looking at your average capacity per drive being up 22%. How much of that, obviously the supply-demand environment is tightened over the last year, and in reaction to that, are you taking steps to accelerate that mix up as the customers push you that way?

I'm just curious how much you can control going forward now that we're here on even tighter supply to sort of help your customers in terms of absolute petabytes you're delivering.

Dave Mosley

Thanks, Steve. The lead time out of the wafer fab is quite long, we have to be predictable for our customers, say 6 months, 9 months later, on and so forth.

That's one of the reasons why we talk kind of a year at a time inside of these LTAs. We start wafers based on what we know we're going to be able to deliver so that we're as predictable as we can be for our customers.

If we're deploying engineering resources, we're trying to get through these product transitions, that's what gets us the most exabytes after that, and so mixing up is kind of our goal. If that helps clarify what our strategy is.

Steven Fox

It does, Dave. I just wonder when you had your analyst meeting, you set out sort of a pretty well-defined timeline for node transitions.

Maybe just can you give yourself a report card on how you're doing on some of those timelines, if we look out now versus the next year or longer term?

Dave Mosley

I think that's good. We're on the plan, or slightly ahead, and again, most of that's under our control.

We've been executing well. Some of it's under our customers' control as well, and the behavioral changes we've seen in the customer I made reference to earlier, they're really pulling hard because they need more exabytes, and so that helps get the quals done quickly, it helps roadmap alignment and then specific supply alignment, which helps our factories, so.

Steven Fox

Great, that's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Aaron Rakers

Thanks for taking the question and also congrats on the results. I want to go back to gross margin.

I know you talked a lot about the pricing dynamics and the visibility you have, but the thing that stands out to me is you've been executing on a cost per terabyte of a mid-teens year-on-year decline these last several quarters. As we roll out the 4 terabyte per platter Mozaic drives, how do I think about that cost down curve?

Is it mid-single-digit? Can you sustain a double-digit?

Wouldn't we expect the 4 terabyte per platter HAMR drives to actually maybe accelerate the cost down given the ability to bring that into outside of nearline platforms? I'm just curious of how you think about that cost down curve.

Gianluca Romano

We are very positive on the 4 terabyte per disk in term of impact on the cost. As we discussed before, the unit costs tend to be fairly similar, but, of course, we are adding a lot of content per unit.

That will be a good help to reducing the cost and improving profitability. As we are qualifying two major customers on this new product, the time to finalize the qual and then ramp probably through the end of the calendar year and for sure, the impact will be strong, I think, in the next calendar year, too.

Dave Mosley

We plan on making a big transition to 4 terabytes per platter over the coming few years and then getting to 5 terabytes per platter as well. We do add complexity as we make those transitions, but I'd say the first order, the things that dictate the speed of the ramp are our ability to go work scrap and yields all through our supply chain and so on, and we're working very hard on that.

I like the products, though. I think it provide for a bright and stable future for us.

We just need to stay focused on it.

Aaron Rakers

Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please go ahead.

Timothy Arcuri

Thanks a lot. I want to ask about LTSAs.

I think you said nearline capacity is allocated through 2026. It sounds like both pricing and exabytes are locked in this year, but for '27, I think you said something that I took that exabyte and pricing is not locked in, but you have some sort of agreement.

I guess I had two questions. Is it right to assume that pricing is also locked in for all of '26?

What sort of agreement are you referring to for 2027 if volume and pricing is not locked in next year? Thanks.

Gianluca Romano

For this calendar year, no, we said basically we have PO in place for all the quarters. Volume and pricing is well defined.

As Dave said before, if in a quarter we can produce a little bit more, of course, we will sell those exabytes in the open market at a good profitability. I would say we have the vast, vast majority of the volume is already allocated.

Calendar '27, we will start working on that fairly soon. Of course, we have very good indication and agreement on volumes, but we have not fixed the price yet.

Dave Mosley

Tim, it's Dave. We haven't really started the longest lead time parts, but we will very soon for the start of '27, and we need to start having those discussions with our customers.

Which quals are we going to get through together? With what exactly is the plan?

Cuz a lot of them need predictability as well. We'll have to build in our factories based upon how hard they want to pull on those new products.

Timothy Arcuri

Thanks.

Operator

The next question will come from Mehdi Hosseini with Susquehanna Financial Group. Please go ahead.

Mehdi Hosseini

Yes, just a quick house keeping item. Gianluca, your CapEx has been increasing on a Q-over-Q basis.

How should I think about depreciation, especially since it did dip in the December quarter? Any color here would be great looking forward.

Gianluca Romano

No, our CapEx is aligned to our target of 4% to 6% of revenue. We are actually at the bottom of that range.

Is not increasing in term of what we want to achieve or what we said. Of course, comparing to a period where we were more into the down cycle, in term of dollars, of course, is higher.

We are supporting our HAMR transition and HAMR ramp. I would say there is nothing different than what we said.

Dave Mosley

I think that's the way I think about it, too. As well, Mehdi, is that if you go back 2 years ago and you use that as a baseline, we were significantly lower revenue, but also we were challenged on the supply and demand balance.

Right now we're in a totally different environment, of course. We'll probably stay well within the 4% to 6% range, but, as the revenue goes up, we'll spend a little bit more, and probably the first priority is maintenance tools and the things that we weren't doing couple years ago.

Mehdi Hosseini

I apologize, I may have confused. I was focusing more on depreciation.

Given this several quarters of increase in CapEx, should I expect a step-up in depreciation looking forward?

Gianluca Romano

Depreciation will follow the CapEx, so, no, you have your I guess you have your model on the revenue, you can calculate the 4% to 6% of CapEx, and then depreciation for us is on a 10 years' useful life, you can probably model in that way.

Dave Mosley

It's not like some other fabs, it's not necessarily the huge part of the cost drivers. There's a lot other pieces of cost that we can go manage, so.

Mehdi Hosseini

Gotcha. Thank you.

Operator

The next question will come from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Ananda Baruah

Guys. Good afternoon.

Thanks for taking the question. Dave, while we have you, a little bit of a technical one.

What kind of activity are you seeing at sort of the so-called warm tier of storage? It's a question that comes up a bunch in our conversations.

We've heard that it's obviously growing. It's growing both hard drive and flash storage is participating nicely.

Would love to get your input on it, cuz I think there's still First of all, we'd love to know if what we're hearing is accurate, but secondarily, I think there's a lot of people that are assuming that it's becoming a NAND tier, and largely a NAND tier in a GenAI world, and anyway, just would love to get any context there that you have. Thanks.

Dave Mosley

I think you have to be a little bit careful, Ananda. There are applications that are very memory-dependent that are attached to compute, and some of these applications are neat, I like them.

When you start talking about big data, storage, if you will, in data centers, the tiering architecture is fairly well set and probably won't change based on economics and also architectures that are well known, people know how to play. If the concept is that drives aren't working hard, they're in the background just storing data, that's not a good way to think about it.

That's not the way hard drives are being used right now. They're working 24/7.

A lot of times, they're optimized for performance themselves, largely streaming performance, not random small block workloads. That's more of a memory thing.

If you had an application that's random small block, it's probably memory. If you have big data, it's probably a little bit of memory on the front end and a lot of hard drive on the back end.

We think that there are applications across the entire spectrum, of course, but we think that in the future, when we start to talk about the concepts in their enormity about checkpoints and physical AI and video and things like that, it's large, large data. The architectural tier that stores the data will probably remain constant for the next decade.

Ananda Baruah

That's super helpful. I'll keep it there.

Thanks a lot. That's great.

Operator

The next question will come from Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Vijay Rakesh

Hi. Thanks, Dave and Gianluca.

Just a quick question on HAMR. I know you're ramping it faster in the March quarter.

Should that drive a much better gross margin profile, I guess? Any thoughts on how we should see the margins improve, I guess, as HAMR starts to ramp?

I have a follow-up.

Gianluca Romano

Vijay, no, if you are referring to the March quarter, of course, the ramp of HAMR is included in our guidance, and our guidance is indicated a fairly good improvement in gross margin again. Then, as I said, for the rest of the calendar year, no, we expect both revenue and profitability to improve sequentially, and of course, part of that is coming from additional HAMR products.

Dave Mosley

We think demand will be strong for the 4 terabyte per platter, of course, and so that's one of the reasons why we're making that a priority in the transition that we go through this calendar year and into the next.

Vijay Rakesh

Got it. Very helpful.

Just a quick question also on the OpEx side. Very nice.

Obviously, OpEx same time last year was somewhere in the 14% range, now is down to 10%. I know, Gianluca, you said probably that's the long-term target, but looks like, as Dave mentioned with top line ramping up with all the design wins, looks like OpEx could go down again?

Is that fair? As a percent of mix?

Gianluca Romano

I would say, we are getting closer and closer to our first target of 10% of revenue for OpEx. Now, we're almost there.

We should be there actually in the March quarter. Then, of course, it's not that we relax our cost control.

We will continue to keep our cost control, and revenue is supposed to increase, we can probably do a little bit better.

Dave Mosley

I'm glad you asked that, though, Vijay, because, obviously, a few years ago, the tough times that we went through, we weren't investing in ourselves at the rate that I'd like. Of course, with the HAMR transition in front of us, that was a lot of work.

Now that we've kind of cleared that HAMR transition, we can see the future fairly well. The clouds are parting, if you will, and we can see areal density opportunities in front of us.

We will take that money, such as it is, even staying within our same model, and we'll take that money and reinvest in ourselves so that we can continue to drive the areal density.

Vijay Rakesh

Got it. Great.

Thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate it.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

Dave Mosley

Thank you, Nick, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call. The Seagate team is executing very well, delivering on our financial targets and advancing areal density roadmaps, and successfully qualifying customers on our HAMR-based Mozaic products to address the sustained and growing demand for data storage.

As data creation accelerates, driven by both traditional workloads and these emerging AI applications, Seagate's transformational technology positions us well to capture the significant demand opportunities ahead. I'd like to thank our employees for their dedication and innovation, and our customers and suppliers for their trust and collaboration, and our shareholders as well for their continued support.

Together, we're driving Seagate's ongoing success. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect.