Operator
Good morning, and welcome to today's TUI Group Q3 results call. My name is Seb, and I'll be the operator for your call today.
If you'd like to ask a question during the Q&A session, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press *2.
I will now hand you over to Nicola Gehrt, Group Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Nicola Gehrt
Thanks, Seb, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. A very warm welcome to our Q3 2026 results presentation here from the TUI Group Campus in Hanover on this wonderful summer's day.
My name is Nicola Gehrt, and I'm Group Director, Investor Relations, and I'm delighted to be joined for the presentation by our CEO, Sebastian Ebel, and our CFO, Mathias Kiep. Today we are pleased to present to you a resilient set of Q3 results, highlighting the strength of our business in this challenging geopolitical environment.
Following the presentation, we will be opening the floor for the Q&A. With that, I have the pleasure to handing over to Sebastian.
Sebastian Ebel
Thank you, Nicola. A very warm welcome also from my side, and of course from Mathias with this beautiful picture of our hotel in Santorini.
When we 12 months ago presented our outlook, our guidance, we assumed record profits, and we had excellent 5 months till the war in and with Iran started, which had direct impacts: the two TUI Cruises ships stuck; the repatriation costs for the Middle East, for the Far East; the fuel impact; but also, for a time period, 3 months, less bookings, especially, of course, Middle East, also Far East, but also to some of the Eastern Mediterranean countries. This we do see in the second half of this year.
The good development is that we now can see the business is coming back, it's normalizing, and we have seen strong weeks. What we also see is that our transformation is well underway and supported the result which we can present today.
Said that, the Q3 roughly €6 billion revenues, more than 5% below last year, EBIT down €86 million and positive, which was not the case couple of years ago, but Mathias will go more into the details before. If we look into the 9-month numbers, if we take out the direct one-offs, we are still above last year.
If we take them into account, we are €40 million down and with a revenue 1.5% less. That's why we say a very resilient 9-month.
To just remind you, the TUI-specific direct one-offs, €60 million: the Iran war and the two ships, the repatriation, and which is almost forgotten, the €21 million Jamaica hurricane cost. As I said, suffering from high fuel costs, the Eastern Mediterranean softness, and consumer caution.
Having said that, and seeing that the business is coming back, bookings are coming back considerably, we are able to reconfirm the guidance, €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion. If we go into the details: Hotels, stable; we had less occupancy, mainly triggered by the Middle East impact; stable rates; slightly bigger offering; and If we take the Jamaica impact out, we are almost on the same level.
Cruises, very, very strong. If we wouldn't have had the two ships stuck in the Middle East, would have been even up compared to last year.
Now we are slightly below, and in the 9-month we are significantly above. What is really amazing is if we take the two ships out, occupancy is above last year, and prices are also very strong.
By the way, this is not only true for TUI Cruises, it's the same for the UK business, Marella. TUI Musement, strong despite less customers.
We are able to sell more products to customers and especially own-produced products where we have a higher margin. If we go into the Markets + Airline space, we lost €65 million compared to last year, which is in this circumstances probably a resilient, at least from our point of view, resilient result.
With the impact we discussed, almost on the same level like last year, and occupancy still with 91% at a reasonable number. App sales growing, and we have seen that the UK positive, but a decline, Germany, because of the significant long-haul business which was not there, was negative, and Western region slightly improving.
What happened with our main initiatives to build the TUI of tomorrow? We are more and more differentiating between the core value TUI products, the differentiated products with our strong brands, with our airline, from the dynamic-produced products.
This has worked extremely well in Germany with alltours, and therefore, on this infrastructure, we have launched SunDeals last week to give people the right answers if they want to have a differentiated TUI product or a dynamic package, very price-attractive product there. Also supported by the strengthening of our sales approach with our app.
We now have integrated semantic search, which has a real shift in conversion. We are rolling that out till beginning of next calendar year to all the other markets.
A very good development. We have built the connections to the LLMs, where we do see good conversion and a very attractive sales channel, including the integration into the social media.
We just started with our loyalty program in the Nordics, the Scandinavia plus Finland, and recently, very recently in the UK and Ireland. Great success, and that should strengthen our TUI ecosystem to keep the customer with all the benefits they can achieve in our ecosystem and make them to even more loyal customer.
One of the most important projects we have is the commercialization of our airline, and I'm just saying airline, not anymore airlines, because operationally it's now one airline with all the efficiency gains we see. Now, from the marketing sales side, we will act as one commercial airline with a full impact on summer '27 when it comes to network, when it comes to sales activity, and this is a major breakthrough because the right combination between seat-only, third-party, and own customer is adding a lot of value.
When we look at holiday experiences, we had the successful naming of Mein Schiff Relax, outstanding NPS, I can't remember having seen that in any other business before, of 95, customers are really, really happy with it. It's fully booked out, occupancy levels above 100% because of the beds for the kids, and what we brought into the market also for the foreseeable future is selling extremely strong.
We are believing in carbon neutrality and emission reduction, therefore, we will start operation now with the two newbuild LNG ships, not with fossil LNG, but with bio-LNG out of biogas, and therefore, we can reduce the CO2 footprint to almost 100%, 95%. It's also very, very important.
On the Hotel side, yes, we have the one or the other where we have invested in an asset. We will open a ROBINSON Club on Cape Verde next spring, the year after in the Eastern part of Africa, Zanzibar, but the main growth comes from management hotels under the TUI BLUE brand.
Now we have started business in cities, not for business traveler, but for the tourists. These are leisure hotels.
We are starting with Seville and Lisbon. We will roll out that to all major city, as the brand is well-recognized and we can give value to the hotelier and to ourselves.
A lot of things of transformation in TUI, and therefore, we are looking forward to the remaining part of the year and to the coming year. After the prosa, Mathias, the numbers.
Mathias Kiep
Thank you so much, Sebastian, and a very good morning. Let me just summarize the quarter and then summarize the EBIT bridges for 3 months and 9 months, before I would then share, as usual, details on P&L, cash flow, and net debt.
Thereafter, Sebastian will cover bookings, and we will talk about the resulting guidance once more. Now, when I look at the quarter and the 9-month year-to-date, from my perspective, in summary, this is a very robust and resilient result despite a challenging market environment and despite the specific TUI challenges that Sebastian has just described again that you also know from our Q2 result.
This quarter as a result supports well our guidance of €1.1 to €1.4 billion profit. I think what is important, and which is important to me, is that also the elements below EBIT, the financial profile, very much supports our journey, and this is something which is in line with our initial expectations, even prior to the situation in the Iran, which I think is very pleasing.
Now, as you said, Sebastian, this is again a positive third quarter, it's also a positive 9 months, and at the same time, this result, and you probably noticed as well, is in line with 2024 for the quarter and is better, significantly better for the operational profit for the 9 months in 2024. I think that is good in order to put this into perspective.
In summary, as you see from the waterfall, Holiday Experiences slightly below prior year. If you take out the direct impact of the Strait of Hormuz on TUI Cruises, then that would be in line with prior year broadly.
I think if you go through the segments, it's Cruises, as Sebastian described, continues to perform outstandingly well, both in the UK and in the German market. Hotels is in line with the quarters before, very strong and good results.
At the same time, the super-profitability that we saw on the prior years we currently don't see because of the situation in Mexico, where we see market softness, it's not, let's say, a structural difference, but it's a bit of market headwind in one region. Musement with this very continuous improvement.
Naturally, Markets hit the most by the booking environment, at the same time, supporting extremely well our Hotels and Cruise and Musement business. Just anecdotally, if you look at the result in Turkey, what we call gateways to the market overall is down, and our revenue intake in the hotels for Turkey is actually up.
That is how well the vertical integration works. The picture for the 9 months, as described, is even showing that without these direct costs that TUI has to carry this year, we would be up, again, a result of this very strong winter, and I think that is important because also the market prior to Iran was not very strong, was soft, and in this environment, we created actually very good results.
Now, of course, with these direct impacts and with the impact indirectly on bookings, fuel price, etc., the geopolitical events had, we are below, but again, this is more than double the result that we had in 2024. Now, when we look at P&L, cash flow, and balance sheet to conclude the quarter, I think I'm very pleased that everything below EBIT is in line with our expectations in our plan, we can effectively reconfirm everything that we saw at Q2.
In particular, interest is expected to be at the lower end, and the Q3 interest expense and the 9 months more than supports this so far. Then if you look at EPS, again, a positive EPS in the third quarter, which is something which is very important to our financial structure.
Then on cash flow, again, we see a similar picture that then is also reflected on the balance sheet. Structurally, more investments offset by less lease and asset financing amortization, less pension costs, and less interest costs.
At the same time, what you then see on a net basis other than earnings is working capital, which is a natural result of the booking profile that we currently have. This is as of 13th of June.
Naturally, the positive booking environment, as Sebastian will summarize in a second, will have a positive impact on that. At the same time, this is naturally behind last year, and that is something that we currently then also see as a result on the balance sheet.
If you go to the balance sheet structure, then net cash is lower, and that is one-to-one reflection of what we see in the booking intake and the result of the working capital profile. Effectively, seasonality only rather than structural impacts.
The other comment on the balance sheet is that the intake on the aircraft side is according to plan, you see a bit more asset financing, a bit less leasing. We take profit from the very supportive direct financing market there in our credit quality.
At the same time, the Boeing delivery portfolio is something which is in plan and which is impacting naturally our balance sheet in the way you see it here for the third quarter. I think that's, overall, again, a very robust Q3, again profitable for Q3 and the 9 months, and with that, very supportive to our full-year guidance.
Sebastian Ebel
Thank you, Mathias. Trading and outlook: As said, we had quite a challenging, tough month March, April, May into June.
We have seen now, since the last 4, 5, 6 weeks, a very different business for summer and winter. If we look into Hotels, we see a strong average daily rate.
We have seen a slight increase in capacity, and occupancy is now 3% behind last year. Before, when we had the same number 3 months ago, it was significantly higher, we are catching up here.
On Cruise, occupancy, as said, amazingly on the same level, same very high level. Also, rates are up, while we have 12% higher capacity.
Musement is in line with what we have seen before, very robust business. When it comes to Markets + Airline, we have improved by 1% now to 6%.
If we look into the last weeks, we have seen an encouraging momentum. The last week and this week again is better than the week 4, 5 weeks ago.
The momentum is gaining speed. You have to see that in light that we voluntarily cut risk capacity because otherwise, we thought we would get into the significant price war we have seen in the market.
Capacity and demand is now aligned by this decision to reduce risk capacity. ASP are holding up well, which has been also very important to offset inflation.
As I said, the last 4 weeks, trading is very encouraging. Booked revenue up 7%, and that, I say, also surprised me because the weather, with the heat wave now lasting for 2 months, was not what I had expected, so that is a good development.
Winter started slow, but we have seen the same momentum now also for winter. It's still quite a long time.
Summer lasts till October, winter starting in November, we are confident that we will see a good winter. What we should have in mind when we look at these numbers: We always had a strong long-haul business, and the US business is significantly down because of the political situation.
Middle East is zero because with the package regulation, it has been not allowed to sell to it. Also, the Far East has been significantly impacted because of the very high flight rates.
Then we had some destinations like Egypt and Turkey and Cyprus where we traditionally have been strong, which was very much impacted during these 3 weeks in order intake. This now has been normalized, and that we are looking forward with optimism.
This clearly shows it that we have seen after a 14th of June, when the first ceasefire was announced, a resilient and improved intake, and also the running week is doing extremely well. That's why we expect that the risk capacity and the demand is in line.
Yes, of course, last-minute margins are less, but they are supporting very much our guidance. That led to the clear message: we can confirm the EBIT guidance.
Mathias, some more details from your side?
Mathias Kiep
Yes, thank you. On the segments, we talked, and what I think again to highlight in this call is adjustments, net interest in line with what we guided as modeling assumptions in the last quarter.
Net investments, and that's something you also saw from Q3 and 9-month results, we reduced, in line with the efforts to effectively bring in countermeasures against the developments in earnings, we now see that we can reduce that to a level of 810 to 830 this year from a prior range of the lower end of 860 to 900. The rest of the guidance and the modeling assumption remains unchanged.
I think important comment because I get the question a lot is on net debt. I think naturally, we already talked about an increase in net debt this year because of the Boeing deliveries and that adding more lease and asset financing liabilities on balance sheet.
Now, question will be what is working capital doing end of the year? You have seen what is the 9-month position, that is naturally the peak, the impact will naturally per 30th of September lower than that, and will be a product of what is now the last week's booking development, what's October, and what's the incoming winter.
There's a bit of volatility which is more than we usually would have at that point in time, and I think we have our own view on that. At the same time, on a net basis, we would say there's not a material change of our corridors, but at the same time, there will be an increase of net debt versus last year.
I think that's something which I wanted to bring across in this call as well with a view to 30th September. With that, Sebastian, I think that's on the financial side for you to the summary.
Sebastian Ebel
Thank you, Mathias. As said, when we look at what we wanted to achieve, we are personally disappointed.
We are happy that we have seen in this extraordinary market circumstances and can present a resilient result, especially looking forward for the 12 months. This resilient result was, of course, and will be, of course, the result of cautious capacity planning, was more profit against growth, and because of the transformation.
Therefore, seeing now that the transformation, which, by the way, includes significant cost reductions, will bring us in a well position when business and demand will return, and therefore, it's our commitment to deliver sustainable growth and improved shareholder returns. Maybe the good thing is with this unexpected event that we had to be more drastic in what we do when it came to cost, when it came to transformation, looking even more intensively where we do invest, how we even better steer into our own assets.
What supports that is not only a great finance organization here, but also that we brought all the activities under one head, our new COO, Marco Ciomperlik, and that has helped us again to be even more focused on what we want to achieve. Bad environment, quite promising outlook, and I'm really happy to see all the changes which are quite often triggered by AI because this is the disruptive change in our business model and in tourism.
Thank you. Maybe some rain would be also nice.
Nicola Gehrt
Operator, we are ready for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. We will now move on to the Q&A session.
As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw, please press *2.
Our first question comes from Jamie Rollo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Jamie Rollo
Thanks, good morning everyone. Three questions, please, all on Markets and Airline, I'm afraid.
The last 4 weeks, obviously pretty encouraging, 7% growth in revenue, but you do describe a price war. Is it fair for us to assume all of that 7% is volume?
Were the prices down maybe in the last 4 weeks to stimulate that volume? Secondly, you've cut capacity another 1% also.
How much more could you take out for this season if pricing remains tough? How are you thinking about capacity for the winter season and next summer?
Then finally, I think you normally give some figures for the winter season this time of year, particularly for the UK. You also mentioned some structural reasons why it's going to be a tough season given the long-haul exposure being curtailed.
Is there any flavor you can give on winter bookings, and is it also fair for us to assume that actually winter could be very difficult indeed given some of that long-haul program would have gone? Thank you.
Sebastian Ebel
Thank you. Maybe I said something wrong.
For our products, we don't see the price war. We see that at the end of the season, margin is normally a lower, but on top of that is nothing what we can see because we are very much in line capacity with demand.
If I said something wrong, please apologize that. We don't see the necessity to take out any capacity anymore for summer unless there is some unhelpful event which we actually hopefully will not see.
There is from that side no pressure. The pressure all comes from the 3 months after the war started.
If we look into the winter, I also a finance person, but as Mathias is in charge of the finance, he said we should be very cautious on that, although I'm cautiously optimistic, not only because of the recent bookings, but I think that the ones which were not traveling in summer may go into the shoulder months. We have increased our footprint for November, February, March, and therefore, I'm positive there.
We haven't increased the risk capacity. We have slightly less risk capacity, but we are flexible enough to react if there's bigger demand or less demand.
You are right, and that's also quite interesting to see: some of the customers who went to the US go to Canada, only a portion; some of the customers who didn't go to the Caribbean, Mexico has a weakness, go to Egypt; others haven't gone long-haul, but have gone on a ship. I assume that it will take a couple of months till long-haul will recover, even if we assume that there hopefully will be some more peace in the Middle East, and therefore, it has been always good that the risk capacity is, except the flights to the Caribbean which are also very strong for us, is more a non-risk play where the impact on margin is less important.
That's why slower start for the winter, but encouraging if I look at where margins should come from and when it comes to utilization of the aircraft. Of course, we have optimized a lot.
We closed long-haul in Belgium. We put the planes into Amsterdam, a very slot-restricted airport, and with a good success.
That's the reason why we've seen a small improvement in Western Europe, hopefully more to come in the coming season. I look quite encouraged to the winter.
We will be very cautious on capacity.
Jamie Rollo
Thanks. Just maybe as a follow-up.
Given all the pressure in Markets and Airline, if we take the low end of your full-year EBIT guidance of €1.1 billion, that suggests Q4 Markets and Airline profit of under €400 million, which would be a drop of around €250 million year-on-year, and that would be about four times the profit drop you just reported. I'm just wondering, is that still a realistic scenario to be at the low end of the full-year EBIT guidance?
Thank you.
Sebastian Ebel
As I'm sitting next to Nicola and Mathias, I have to be very cautious to what I say. Of course, there is, which is a little bit surprising when you are in August, some uncertainty from river cruise which has to stop operations to fuel price, the last open position.
Let's answer it that way, and hopefully, I'm not killed from right or left: I would be very disappointed with €1.1 billion. Is that allowed to say?
Maybe this answer helps a little bit.
Jamie Rollo
I think that's clear enough. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Next question is from Kate Shaw with Bank of America.
Please go ahead.
Sebastian Ebel
Good morning.
Kate Xiao
Thank you very very much for taking my questions. Morning.
Can I ask a quick follow-up on the guide? How about the high end of the range, then?
Do you still have the ambition to potentially get back to last year's EBIT level? If you were able to get there eventually, what would need to happen at this point?
A second question also on your capacity. I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more in your risk capacity cuts.
How much is dynamic through partners compared to owned? With the recent more positive momentum in booking trend, are these bookings going through your own capacity or dynamic?
Thank you very much.
Sebastian Ebel
Will you do the first one before I say something wrong?
Mathias Kiep
Yes, let me cover on the guidance, indeed. I think when we compare to our Q2 position, we set out a corridor of €1.1 to €1.4 in Q2, and there was inclarity about how would the market return linked to how quickly would the situation in the Middle East be resolved.
We've seen the very positive impact from the peace treaty at the time, we've seen the very positive impact whenever the situation calmed down. There's another element which is fuel prices, where there was the question would they come back quickly, which they in one window did, but did not really stabilize on that level.
I think if you take a step back, those impacts we not only see in Markets and Airlines as a lot of questions are, but that's something also on the related activities in the Hotels, Turkey, on the footprint that we have there, Cyprus, with the Cruise. There's a lot of ingredients that we had when we set out the guidance in Q2.
Now we are advanced 3 months more, and I think what is a very good picture, and how we look at this, is that naturally we have narrowed the corridor. I think, as Sebastian said, given the volatility around us, you can't exclude the lower end or the upper end because otherwise we would have done that.
At the same time, naturally with the trajectory that we have, you come in a narrower corridor, but at the same time, this is unfortunately not the time to specify this further.
Sebastian Ebel
Yes, thank you, Mathias. On the risk capacity, as said, at least I and some other colleagues didn't expect that the business now would come back as it came back, and maybe we could have been less price-focused when we would have known that the business comes back as it is because our own flying, our own risk hotel capacity is sold as it should be sold.
Whatever now comes is the majority, the huge majority is on dynamic capacity, and it's mainly to destinations like Turkey, some Greece, some Egypt. Therefore, the impact is on margin and fixed cost coverage, but it's not on getting a better load factor return because this opportunity is limited, and therefore, if destinations keep stable, the risk is limited, but also the opportunity is limited.
The opportunity comes from the dynamic part and from a few countries.
Kate Xiao
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Leo Carrington with Citi.
Please go ahead.
Leo Carrington
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
I also have three, just one on trading and a couple of strategic. On trading, in terms of the Markets and Airline business, do you get a sense of why the bookings originating in the UK are lagging Germany still?
Then separately, on the TUI Fly platform, is this a platform mostly for the winter months, or do you expect some of your summer capacity will be on there in 2027? Then lastly, I was interested to see you highlight the TUI BLUE Bhutan.
Not necessarily about that property, but in general, I'd be interested to know how you perceive the future of, let's say, non-urban leisure destinations given the trends for travelers to look for cooler locations and atypical summer destinations. Thank you.
Sebastian Ebel
Our German business had always had a significant higher share of dynamic-packaged product. As the market has gone in two directions: one, the differentiated higher-end product on the one hand, and the price-sensitive dynamic-packaged product.
This had worked extremely well in Germany well, in a very difficult market has worked well with the TUI brand for the differentiated product with our own hotel product, own flying, and alltours for the dynamic-packaged very price-sensitive products because when I say it worked well, if you take the long-haul out, the rest is extremely stable and doing well. Long-haul, I think, is very clear that there is no business to the Middle East, there's no business.
The approach in the UK was different. We brought everything into the TUI brand, and we had to learn from consumer intelligence that in some areas, we lost the trust of the consumer, said, 'And with TUI, I want to have a TUI flight, I want to have a TUI hotel, and maybe I want a less dynamic package as with other airline over the long-tail hotel.'
That was the reason why we introduced SunDeals to make very clear: this is this kind of product, and this is the other kind of product. Therefore, whenever the dynamic is stronger than the differentiated products, we will benefit from both segments.
When you cut capacity, as we did in the UK or also in Germany, but mainly in the UK, then and the focus is on that, you're not getting the customers who then go to On the Beach or Loveholidays or other great companies who offer dynamic, and we want to get our fair share from this as well because one thing is clear: we want to grow. Bhutan, I didn't know that we have a hotel in Bhutan, but apparently we have one, as we are growing in this area as well.
We very much believe in the city leisure destinations. We are going to open the third hotel in New York.
What is interesting: people always think a leisure hotel in the city is the same than a business hotel. It's not, it's a very different distribution, it's a very different product.
As much as business travel is at the moment not an easy business, leisure is growing significantly because the second, third trip per year goes quite often into a city. There we will benefit from because we know how to distribute this product.
Therefore, the RIU hotels in London are doing very well, in Toronto is doing very well, in Dublin is doing well, and that's why we also have the focus on that. One side effect: we are now opening the first hotel in Lisbon, maybe there will be a second hopefully soon, it helps build our brand in this destination where TUI is not known as we are in England or in Germany.
With getting customers in the hotels, we will be also able to sell the connected trip product and so on. It's part of the integrated model, and that is slightly different to a year ago.
Today, we look even more how we can get the benefits from the vertical integration. Whenever we go to a destination with a TUI BLUE hotel, a RIU hotel, it will be a leisure hotel where we have an own agency, where flying could happen, very strong focus on vertical integration.
Changing customer preferences: The climate change is quite interesting. I was in Turkey last week.
The weather was cooler than here in Hanover, which was almost the case the whole time. It was dry, and here it was humid, and it was windy, and here it was no wind.
I was quite surprised that the customer who were there, they said it's by far better than what I've seen in Germany. The feedback is very positive.
That's why we haven't seen that this does impact our business at all, although the wildfire didn't do it because they were all in non-touristic areas. In the touristic areas, we had up to now, hopefully they would stay less than the years before.
The change has been how the hotels have to be equipped. In the past, it was air conditioning in your room.
Now it's about air conditioning also in the dining facilities, in the sport facilities. By the way, for the longer shoulder seasons, we need also heating, this has been a change, no real impact.
If you talk about the boom to Nordics, yes, it's a 50% increase from 100,000 to 150,000. That is nice, but it's not game-changing.
Leo Carrington
Thank you, that's interesting. On the TUI Fly platform, just winter versus summer?
Okay.
Sebastian Ebel
Yes, I think, and that's also what we learned from our dear competitors, sometimes to sell not the last five beds with a loss, but selling a seat-only with a profit is the better part. You may know that we only had 5%, 4%, 3% seat-only, and it was more a tool to get for the lowest price to sell them and not like we do now.
When I had to book for Lanzarote in the spring vacation, I had to pay €1,000 for a seat-only. This part of the business we missed.
At the end, we don't want to change the benefits from synergies, from the vertical integration, but to have, let's say, 10% less distressed sales and have less 10% higher-value seat-only products, that is the strategy, and some of our dear competitors have proven that this is a good way forward. We haven't had the tools, we couldn't sell really single seats, we couldn't sell from the destination, and that is all now changing.
Leo Carrington
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Next question is from André Juillard from Deutsche Bank.
Please go ahead.
André Juillard
Thank you for taking my question. Three, if I may.
First one about source market and destinations: could you give us some more color about the recent trend you've been registering in your main source market in terms of volumes and pricing? In terms of destination, could you give us also some more color about where do you still have some capacity, and which trend do you register at the moment?
Second question also about pricing and volume. You were giving some more color about the fact that there was no pricing war, but could you also give us some more information about the trend you register in Markets and Airlines and Hotels, where you see some capacity available and where you feel pricing are sustainable?
Last one about the fiscal year '26 guidance, you were mentioning that you would be disappointed if you were ending the year in the lower range of the 1.1, 1.4. What would allow you to be in the upper end of this guidance in the actual environment and 6 weeks before the end of the fiscal year?
Thank you.
Sebastian Ebel
I don't want to add something to the guidance unless Mathias wants to say something more to that. As I said, it was a personal comment from my side.
What we do see is that the late markets very much go into Turkey. As said, like Spain is well-booked, quite often sold out.
Volumes are, because they had a very slow start, which are available is Turkey and Egypt. When I talk about pricing, what hit us this year were the 3 months: March, April, May, and part of the June, where we had to stimulate the market.
You could argue, did we do too much? In hindsight, you're always more.
Now the whole system has really stabilized despite the fact that the long-haul is very small. That was one of the reasons why a price number wouldn't help because it's very much influenced by the different mix.
Long-haul is normally two times more expensive or at least two times more expensive than the trip to Mallorca. What we do see today with the latest sales, pricing is as it was 1 year ago.
What we missed out was the 3.5 months since the war started and the special effect which hit TUI, the two ships, the disruption caused bringing customers home, and we are the market leader to Cyprus, therefore Cyprus, the hit of Cyprus, there were weeks with 90% down in the first weeks. This was not possible to catch up again.
If you look at source markets, the bigger markets have seen more impact, but that was more because we put the capacity out. The Eastern European markets have been doing better.
We started Romania, we're quite surprised as a new entry about Romania. Spain, Latin America is still very small volumes, but doing well.
At the end, the volumes less were from UK, Germany, and maybe a little bit Belgium. That was the main impact.
Karan Puri
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question is from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS.
Please go ahead.
Cristian Nedelcu
Thank you very much for taking my questions. Two if I may.
The first one is a bit related with one of the previous questions. If we take a step back on the cost-cutting program, where are we right now?
Could you tell us a bit in terms of are we 30% into getting those benefits or 50% into it, and we're trying to visualize a little bit next year what is the type of incremental year-over-year benefit from cost cutting that we could see? Secondly, we discuss about the working capital, and we're seeing some of your competitors being more aggressive by asking lower deposits.
Could you talk a little bit there? Have you made any changes there in terms of the deposits and when the prepayments are made?
To what extent that is one of the reasons the working capital has been a bit weaker? Thank you.
Mathias Kiep
Yes, good morning, Cristian. On the working capital side, I think we generally don't do kind of working capital-driven incentives.
What we give to the teams is that they can support their market activities, and if there's need for adjustments, then we can discuss this, but there's no general kind of push to generate working capital or to use working capital as a key kind of lever to generate bookings. The other way, we also see from a consumer side that this is kind of not ranked as a key priority.
These are more other factors, and otherwise, we would also not see the bookings return so if that was the number one question. So
Sebastian Ebel
We didn't do the promotion saying no prepayment. We are in the normal course of business.
Mathias Kiep
I think that is something that we can always discuss, we would always be kind of open, but we wouldn't like structural changes in the market for us, and that we currently don't see. The working capital is more a result for us as a product of booking rather than we want to take it as a big lever.
On the cost-cutting program, if we take a step back, our plans that we shared with you end of 2025, then we wanted to achieve around a third this year, another third next year, and then have that kind of fully implemented during the course of 2028. I think, Sebastian, it's fair that we currently see how can we further accelerate this.
At the same time, I would say to bring another third next year is already a good result, and of course, you can always do more. From a general direction, I think that corridor is currently prevailing.
Thank you.
Cristian Nedelcu
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Jürgen Kolb from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Please go ahead.
Jürgen Kolb
Yes, thank you very much indeed. Two questions.
One, maybe in terms of the average trip time. What have you seen from your guests?
Are they maybe cutting
Operator
Apologies, we just lost audio from Jürgen. Please stand by 1 second.
Jürgen, if you could continue, thank you.
Jürgen Kolb
Okay. Try that again.
Quick comment on the average trip time by customers. Have you seen any material changes recently, which may speak for customers to go for another shorter trip maybe sometime in October or so?
Comments here maybe. On the cost savings program that has just been asked, maybe from a wider perspective, the transformation process that is ongoing, have you ever learned anything new where you would say, we need to strengthen that particular transformation part of the whole equation stronger?
Is AI, for example, becoming an even stronger element? Where do you think you have to do more in the years even after '27, '28 from what you've learned and what you've seen currently?
Thank you very much.
Sebastian Ebel
On the average trips, I remember, hopefully right, that after COVID, it went from 10 to 11 days. Now we are back where we had been, maybe even slightly less.
It's very much influenced by less long-haul where people tend to stay longer than on medium/short-haul. If I take this effect out, it's now very stable, slightly below after COVID, but COVID was a 1-day increase.
May that suggest a second trip? I think the second trip is more depending on your personal possibilities.
What we've seen is that, like families, they have less money. The elderly generation, where have good jobs, have the money, and they go for the second and third trip.
Transformation process: The biggest change is AI, and the biggest change is in IT. You hardly need Java developers anymore, you need AI manager.
That is not only a significant source of efficiency gain, it's also a cost gain. It's also a big thing in efficiency gain that you can increase development speed by a high factor.
This is, for a traditional company, quite a tough work, but with a great CIO, and that's why we are doing good progress. Global platforms: We're talking about that since 3, 4 years.
Now we are implementing, and to make sure that we have them also then finally in Spain and the small countries is important. To speed up is there very important.
Distribution, that's what I said is the biggest change, to accept that there are new sales channels which we hadn't seen 2 years ago which are driving the business, and that building the ecosystem, also with partners in retail, is absolutely key because that will be the most important sales channel in the future. There, some of our competitors, the airline competitors, had a big advantage when you offer your seat-only company and then you offer the leisure, you do it to an existing customer base.
That we didn't do, and that's why the move into the seat-only business, into the commercialization of the airline. What have we learned?
To be more radical, to be more drastic, to accept the change. Therefore, I said, I think, in the press call before, the only good thing or the big good thing of having this crisis now was that we had to do and need to do things even quicker and to be more radical than before.
Jürgen Kolb
Got it. Super.
Thanks very much, guys. Best of luck.
Sebastian Ebel
Thank you.
Mathias Kiep
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session, I'll hand back to Sebastian for any closing comments.
Sebastian Ebel
Thank you. I was just wondering what you could do to help us to get to the different range of our guidance.
Please book and go on vacation. Every customer is welcome.
No, I think we went through a challenging time, which was not easy to us. If you have 10,000 customers abroad and the only focus is to get them home, that has been a very tough experience, to set the capacity right, to not panic, but to do good offers.
That was a huge journey. As I said, maybe we could assume the strong comeback of the market earlier, but I think it was not really foreseeable.
We are happy that we managed this crisis. I think we are all very happy, and I'm very grateful to the team for putting more speed into the transformation to make sure when the market will come back that we hopefully benefit maybe even more than others.
It has been a tough learning. We do see that the business is normalizing despite all the uncertainty in the world.
I don't know where we would stand if there wouldn't be the war from Russia against Ukraina, if there wouldn't have been the Iranian war, what would happen if the hispanos would not be scared to go on vacation to Mexico or you don't know if they come back in the US, but we have to cope with it, and that's one of the tasks which we see that we can do our homework, we can get better in what we do, and that always helps us to be more resilient when it comes to these crisis. There is huge growth potential as the market is, in generally, a growth market.
The work is tough, but with some optimism, we think we will get some benefits out of that. Thank you for being with us, and it's always interesting what you write, and a lot of learnings.
Mathias?
Mathias Kiep
Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Already premium?