Central Puerto SA

Central Puerto SA

1.17
USD
-0.04
(-3.31%)
0.22EPS
6.96P/E
2.25BMarket Cap
Nov 09Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 6, 2026

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Central Puerto's fourth quarter of 2025 earnings conference call.

A slide presentation is accompanying today's webcast and will be also available on the investors section of the company's website, www.centralpuerto.com/en/investors. All participants will be in a listen-only mode during the presentation.

After that, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded.

If you do not have a copy of the press release, please refer to the Investor Relations Support section on the company's corporate website at www.centralpuerto.com. In addition, a replay of today's call will be available in upcoming days by accessing the webcast link at the same section of the Central Puerto's website.

Our hosts today will be Mr. Fernando Bonnet, Central Puerto CEO, Mr.

Enrique Terraneo, the company CFO, Mrs. María Laura Feller, Head of Investor Relations, and Mr.

Alejandro Díaz López, Head of Corporate Finance. María Laura, please go ahead.

María Laura Feller

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We will walk you through Central Puerto's fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, discuss key operational and market developments, and then open the line for questions.

Before we begin, please note that my remarks may include forward-looking statements and references to non-IFRS measures, such as adjusted EBITDA. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

Definitions and reconciliations are available in our 4Q '25 earnings presentation and financial statements. Revenues for 2025 reached $782.8 million, up 17% year-over-year.

4Q '25 revenues were $172.8 million, decreasing 26% quarter-on-quarter and increasing 3% year-on-year. 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $337.2 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year.

And 4Q '25 adjusted EBITDA was $84.7 million, down 16% quarter-on-quarter and up 30% year-on-year. Total generation for the year was 18.6 TWh, down 14% year-over-year, largely reflecting historically low hydrology at Piedra del Águila.

Also in 2025, we undertook non-recurring maintenance works in Central Costanera combined cycles and Luján de Cuyo cogeneration assets. Regarding business performance, 2025 marked a pivotal year of consistent growth and market normalization.

The company strengthened its strategic position and reinforced its power generation asset portfolio for long-term value creation. Throughout 2025, Argentina's wholesale power market advanced toward normalization.

Since November 1st, Resolution 400 has supported US dollars-denominated spot prices and recognized a margin over variable costs. In December 2025, 97% of our revenues were denominated in US dollars.

We also progressed in the new thermal term market, signing around 11% of total volumes in the contracted market, with approximately 900 [mil?] MWh delivered to industrial customers during November and December.

Our capex plan in 2025 included fully executed projects over the year, in addition of projects that allow us to look forward and continue delivering growth. In 2025, our total capex was $202.4 million, consisting of concluding with 2024 projects such as the closing of the Brigadier López combined cycle that achieved commercial operation during 1Q '26, and we concluded also the San Carlos solar farm project, our first solar greenfield project.

The asset reached commercial operation in November 2025, adding 15 MW of renewable capacity to our portfolio. Together with Cafayate, our two 2025 solar projects doubled our installed solar capacity and increased our total renewable portfolio by 20%.

Also in 2025, we extended Piedra del Águila concession. The company was awarded the concession under the Comahue Hydroelectric Complex privatization process, extending the operating term of the Piedra del Águila hydroelectric facility through 2055.

Winning bid offer was $245 million paid in January 2026. The company is also focused on the battery energy storage system projects, looking forward to add 205 MW of new technology in 2027.

Our growth plan is backboned by our financial strength, flexibility, and low leverage ratio. In December 2025, net leverage ratio was 0.3 times annual adjusted EBITDA, which positioned us well to add new financial debt to finance Piedra del Águila concession extension and the fee payment, and the battery energy storage system projects.

2025 revenues stood at $782.6 million, 17% above 2024 revenues, despite the 14% decrease in generation volumes. Spot revenues growth in 2025 reflect additional revenues from this realignment of the spot price over the year under Resolution 400 since November 2025.

Also, we see the effect of the self-procured fuel oil with the associated cost pass-through in revenues. Offsets came from lower water inflows from Piedra del Águila and the maintenance works in Central Costanera combined cycles.

PPA sales growth include new MAT contracts in November and December 2025, including also cost of fuels incorporated in the energy component. Renewable revenues increased by 3% as wind farm volumes increased 5% due to higher wind resources, and the full contribution from Cafayate solar plant since the end of August 2025.

Full-year 2025 EBITDA reached $337.2 million, a 17% increase year-on-year, primarily driven by revenue growth under market normalization and higher margins from self-procured fuels, which added approximately $8 million. In 2025, total generation reached 18.6 TWh, representing 14% decrease compared to 2024.

Central Costanera's generation volumes decreased by 15% year-over-year, primarily due to maintenance work in both Mitsubishi and Siemens combined cycles during 2025. Second, Piedra del Águila generated 38% less than in 2024, mainly due to historically low water inflows affecting hydro production.

Finally, Luján de Cuyo was 24% lower year-on-year, largely explained by maintenance works in the cogeneration asset in the fourth quarter. Moving to installed capacity, our portfolio reached 6,938 MW in 2025, representing an increase of 234 MW compared to 2024.

The increase was driven by several developments: Brigadier López combined cycle was completed, and the San Carlos solar projects added 15 MW of solar capacity. Together with Cafayate solar farm, acquired in August 2025, these two solar projects contributed by 20% of the renewable capacity additions during the year.

Regarding market position, Central Puerto maintained its market leadership, reaching 14% market share of total SADI generation. Finally, looking at operational performance, our thermal fleet continued to show solid availability levels.

In 2025, total thermal availability reached 77%, while combined cycles availability stood at 89%, reflecting strong operational reliability. During 2025, three thermal and renewable projects were completed, combining greenfield developments and M&A transactions, further expanding our generation portfolio.

First, the Cafayate solar farm, which was acquired through an M&A transaction, is already in operations. Second, we finalized Brigadier López combined cycle project, which is also already in operation since January 2026.

Third, the San Carlos solar farm also entered in operations in November 2025. In addition, we were awarded two battery energy storage system projects, which were granted in August 2025.

These projects are currently under development and are expected to begin operations during the first half of 2027. Finally, an important milestone regarding the Piedra del Águila hydroelectric plant was that Central Puerto successfully secured a 30-year concession extension for the plant through the privatization tender process.

The concession fee payment was successfully completed in January 2026, marking another key step in strengthening our long-term asset base. In 2025, the Argentine power system reached a new record for the demand, with a peak of 30,257 MW on February 10th, 2025.

Renewable generation rose 16.5% year-over-year and supplied about 19% of total demand, including hydro. Renewables representing roughly 39% of the total annual energy mix.

Thermal fuel consumption declined 2.6% year-over-year, with gas oil down 53% and fuel oil 60%, partially offset by 1.2% increase in natural gas and 5.2% increase in coal. As of the December 31st, outstanding financial debt was $337.8 million, and net leverage ratio stood at 0.3 times adjusted EBITDA.

On December 19th, we signed a $300 million syndicate A/B loan with IFC with an average life of 5 years to fund Piedra del Águila concession fee and Central Puerto's BESS project. Also, our outstanding FONINVEMEM receivable credit was $118 million as of year-end.

Overall, 2025 was a year of solid growth and continued progress as the market normalized. During the year, the company kept expanding and strengthening its generation portfolio to support long-term development.

Looking ahead, we will focus on three priorities: discipline contracting commercialization, operational excellence, and advancing our growth agenda.

Fernando Bonnet

2025 was a pivotal year for Central Puerto, marked by Piedra del Águila concession extension by 30 years more, portfolio expansion, market normalization, and strategic progress across our assets. We enter 2026 from a position of strength, with robust liquidity and a resilient business model.

Thank you for your continued confidence in Central Puerto. Please let's stay connect, and now we will open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you very much for the presentation. We will now begin the Q&A section for investors and analysts.

If you wish to ask a question, please press the button raise hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on put hand down.

Our first question comes from Martín Arancet with Balanz. You can open your microphone.

Martín Arancet

Hi. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions.

I have three. I would like to run them one by one, if that's okay.

First, I was wondering if you could give us some color on why the decrease in the quarter-over-quarter EBITDA, given that the market liberalization should have been, at least, positive for thermal exposed to the spot market. Thanks.

Fernando Bonnet

Hi, Martín. Thank you for your question and your interest in Central Puerto.

The main topic affecting the 4Q 2025 is that we have a strong maintenance in our Central Puerto combined cycle and Mendoza combined cycles, the two of our biggest combined cycles. Because of that, we don't catch in those units the benefits of the new regulation scheme.

This only regarding to that. The rest of the equipment was okay, and the new regulation is in place.

We expect that will be recovered in the first quarter 2025 26.

Martín Arancet

Thanks. Sorry for this follow-up, because probably you already disclosed this, but are those plants already working again?

Fernando Bonnet

Yes. They start working at the end of December, and the other one early January.

We don't expect additional maintenance for those units until 2027, '28.

Martín Arancet

Thanks. Then regarding one of your main focus for 2026, I was wondering how much of the thermal capacity that was under the legacy scheme do you think can compete for energy PPAs?

How much of that do you already have contracted? How do you see the market for signing the rest of the energy that you have?

I don't know if you are seeing much interest. I don't know if you have discussed this with distribution companies, and if you expect probably a stronger interest for industrial consumers as we approach the winter, where you have higher seasonal prices.

Fernando Bonnet

In terms of our capacity, we can contract, as the 20 20% of our combined cycles that are the spot legacy scheme. That is around 2 GW the whole combined cycles, is the 20% of that with the private customers, with big industries.

We are doing around that 20 yet. During January, February, and March, we are going to cover that capacity, contract it.

For to exceed that, we need to go to, as you mentioned, we need to go to the distribution companies. That is coming slower.

The distribution company need to discuss with the regulators, each regulator, because it's not only federal. It has local regulators in each provinces.

This is coming slowly because they need to discuss and receive a pass-through possibility in order to make the pass-through to the demand. By now, we are not doing a lot of transaction with distribution companies.

Right now, we are of course in discussions. We are having advances, but we are not closing big deals yet.

We expect that it could start happening during this year.

Martín Arancet

Right. Do you think that to sign contracts with distribution companies, you probably will require, I don't know, some back-up from CAMMESA, or something like that, like it happened with the battery project?

Fernando Bonnet

No. We, of course, we're going to make our credit analysis, and we're going to pick the distribution companies that we think that they are suitable to giving credit.

We don't request additional CAMMESA back-up. Talking about, as I mentioned, legacy energy selling, no?

Because this is month-on-month, and we can cut the provision if they doesn't pay. Talking about other projects like new generation, or perhaps Terconf, this is different.

This will be different.

Martín Arancet

Thanks. My last question, then, regarding the other main focus that you will have for 2026, I was wondering where do you see growth opportunities coming this year, and probably also the next year?

Because it seems that there is not enough incentives yet to add thermal capacity now with the thermal capacity competing also for PPAs with renewables. We have seen lower tenors in new PPAs and slightly lower prices.

I don't know if adding more MW is now the best idea. There has been a lot of comments regarding probably new renewable capacity for mining and oil and gas, but it doesn't appear to have materialized yet.

I was wondering where do you see the growth opportunities coming in the near term?

Fernando Bonnet

Okay. We have right now an auction in place for new battery storage system for the other provinces than Buenos Aires, that we get awarded last year.

We are looking spots over the interior in different province: Santa Fe, Mendoza, Corrientes, Córdoba. There are opportunities there.

This new auction is in place and will have the due date in May this year. This is an opportunity of expansion that we're going to look at.

As you mentioned, in terms of renewables, right now is getting difficult to get new PPAs with the existing demand, we are looking for new demand. Not the existing one.

As you mentioned, mining companies are one of them. Oil and gas companies are other possibilities.

Companies that needs perhaps gain efficiency in their processes, like introducing steam. Perhaps we can work in cogenerations there.

Looking forward for perhaps in the middle of this year or perhaps in the third quarter of an auction for new capacity that need to be set for cover some areas, specific areas, like specifically Buenos Aires area. I see there are opportunities.

Not as you mentioned, not trying to catch the existing demand with renewables, because, as you mentioned, it's been challenging right now because the thermal are entering in the market and are stressing prices. Also the hydros are entering the market and put some pressure there also.

I see opportunities, as I mentioned, in storage system capacity, in new demand coming from new players in the market like mining companies, and a possibility in new thermal capacity coming in some auction during this year.

Martín Arancet

Great. This thermal auction that you mentioned, something similar to the Terconf that got cancelled?

Fernando Bonnet

It's not completely established by the government yet, but we have talkings with them that could be something similar, but with different perhaps approach to the demand. Something like receiving a payment for capacity from CAMMESA.

It's something that are under discussion right now.

Martín Arancet

Thank you. Very clear.

You're welcome.

Operator

Please hold while we poll for questions. We are going to go now for the question with Lucas Lombardo with BACS.

Lucas, you can open your microphone.

Lucas Lombardo

Sorry. Hi, team.

Thanks for share all the results. I want to know the percentage of new term contracts that will include in the income for the company.

Fernando Bonnet

Okay. I think you are referring to how much of the 20% that we can sell to private consumers we reach?

That is the question?

Lucas Lombardo

Yes.

Fernando Bonnet

Yes, we expect during March to cover all those 20%.

Lucas Lombardo

Thank you.

Operator

Please hold while we poll for questions. Our next question comes from Matías Cattaruzzi with Adcap.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Hi, how are you? Good morning, everyone.

I wanted to ask, first, about the outlook for 2026. How do you see volumes coming for next year, especially hydro volumes?

Then, how do you expect the PPA versus spot mix to be in next year regarding the new deregulation? Do you expect PPAs to grow more in generation?

Fernando Bonnet

Thank you. Talking about volumes for Piedra del Águila specifically, the hydrological year starts on May, it's difficult today to say that we're going to see better inflows than the previous year.

Of course, the previous year was a low year, our expectations are to be better than that. To have a clear view, we need perhaps two more months in order to see how the year comes.

In terms of thermal generation, we expect an increase because as I mentioned before, two of our combined cycles were in maintenance during the whole month of December, and the other one was maintenance the whole month of September. We don't see those maintenance in 2016 in 2026, we expect an increase of our thermal generation also.

In terms of new PPAs coming, as I mentioned, we are trying to catch additional demand from distribution companies. This will unlock the possibility to sell the legacy energy above the 20% that we have already granted.

We expect to have news on that this year. It's difficult to predict, as I mentioned before, it's difficult to predict the volume that we can reach there because the distribution companies are discussing with the regulators the feasibility of make that pass-through directly to the demand and the terms of that pass-through.

Right now, it's difficult to forecast the potential there, but we see potential. I think we can catch more than the 20% that we are already selling, and we can go over that going to distribution companies.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Great. Then, do you intend to participate in the upcoming tender for national batteries?

Fernando Bonnet

We are looking at, yes. Yes, we are looking at.

Of course, it's different from the participation that we have in the last year, because we are looking in places different from our facilities. In the ones that we awarded last year, we established inside our facilities, and were very convenient for us.

Right now, this new auction is all over the country, we are looking places and the new reality in the battery storage system prices, because the lithium goes up, the copper, all the materials that batteries used. The government established a price according to the last auction.

We are looking at returns on that, places that are outside from our facilities are far from our facilities, it's not the same. We are looking at, but we need to do more work in order to understand it's something suitable for us or not.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Great. Do you expect to participate in the upcoming privatizations by ENARSA assets?

Fernando Bonnet

Yes, we are looking at. We don't have the mandate yet to move forward, but we are looking at.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Great. Do you have any updates on the OpenAI, Sur Energía project?

Fernando Bonnet

No, we have discussions with them after that we award that Piedra del Águila, that was very important for them that we have a huge hydro back-up in us to give power to them. That was a great news for them.

We discussed then with them that, but we don't have a clear timing or any additional news coming from that place.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Great. Last, can you give us an EBITDA bridge for upcoming years until 2028?

Fernando Bonnet

I can give you some perhaps information regarding 2026. 2028, of course, we will expect maintain that, but talking about increasing will be challenging regarding expansion, as I mentioned, of new PPAs and how we going to do in terms of the new coming auctions.

Talking about 2026, we have some certainties that can share with you and the rest of the listeners. One important thing, or the biggest improvement that we are seeing for 2026 and onwards is that the Brigadier López closing combined cycle PPA are going to bring additional $60 million for our EBITDA.

The other improvement is, as we talk in the previous calls, the new regulation for spot market bring another between $70 and $80 million for our EBITDA. Piedra del Águila also have an improvement compared to the old regime that compared to this new concession will brings additional $15 million.

If you perform the full year of the renewables that we acquire and build last year, this will add additionally eight and between $8 and $10 million more. In general terms, will be an improvement of $150, $160 million.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Great. I have two more questions.

One is if you expect distributing dividends in 2026? Well Yes.

The second one would be more operational. With the upcoming IP for the Perito Moreno pipeline expansion, do you expect that your plants in the central area would get some more upside with lower costs due to lower gas prices because of the expansion of the Gasoducto Perito Moreno?

Fernando Bonnet

Okay. In terms of dividend, that is something that will be discussing by the board of directors.

Right now, we have no guidance regarding to that, specifically because, as I mentioned, we have different projects on our pipeline, and we are performing some purchases right now, this is something that the board will be discuss in the next coming month. Talking about the TGS pipeline, we don't see a reduction on prices because the gas prices are set right now by the Plan Gas contracts that CAMMESA and the government signed during the former administration.

We received these prices, or these prices are fixed until the end of 2028 when those contracts gets to the end. We don't see big reduction on prices until this Plan Gas goes to the end.

In terms of the capacity or the transportation capacity of the TGS, we are analyzing the convenience or not to acquire that capacity. The problem is that going further in a big tenor contract is like a 15, of course you can do less, but normally will be 15 years of contract, is not fully discussed the regulation scheme in which we can recover this additional cost, because this additional transportation will have an incremental cost related to one that we are paying now.

It's not clear for us yet the new regulation scheme that will be available or the regulation scheme that will be available to recover that incremental cost. Right now, we are looking at, but we don't have a decision yet.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Great. Wouldn't it be better for gas prices in the winter?

Wouldn't you need less liquids, or gas oil, or fuel oil?

Fernando Bonnet

The problem is to get here to our terminals. You do not only need the TGS expansion, you will need distribution here.

The distribution in Buenos Aires area are very constrained. We don't see fully elimination of diesel and LNG during winters for a while.

Of course, will be a reduction because the TGS will inject here and also have some volumes that could go to the north. We'll see a reduction, but not a full elimination of diesel and LNG.

Matías Cattaruzzi

Thank you so much.

Fernando Bonnet

You're welcome.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr.

Fernando Bonnet for any closing remarks.

Fernando Bonnet

Thank you for your interest in Central Puerto. I will encourage you to ask any question to our team that you may have.

Thank you very much, and have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a good day.