Cresud SA

Cresud SA

1.15
USD
-0.02
(-1.71%)

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 8, 2026

Santiago Donato

Good afternoon, everyone. I am Santiago Donato, Investor Relations Officer of Cresud, and I welcome you to the third quarter of 2026 results conference call.

I would like to remind you that both audio and slideshow may be accessed through company's investor relations website at www.cresud.com.ar by clicking on the banner webcast link. The following presentation and the earnings release are also available for download on the company website.

After management remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session for analysts and investors. If you want to make a question, please use the chat.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and that information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risk and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

Please refer to the detailed note in the company's earnings release regarding forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Mr.

Alejandro Elsztain, CEO.

Alejandro Elsztain

Good afternoon, everybody. We are beginning the highlights of the first nine months of '26, and we are progressing a very good campaign that it's a record planted area between own and leased, and with favorable conditions, and we are going to see later how the yields are good in general, we are surpassing our volumes of the past.

Related to the prices of the commodities, there was some raising in the price of commodities, but input costs too, so that is making margins not to be so profitable, but still very good for the year, and but the last two months, we began to see a bad context of fertilizers and fuel that it's damaging farmer condition because of the cost of inputs. Related to the Argentina, we had very good winter crop.

We were very good in yields on wheat mainly, but in summer crops, soybean and corn, we are good enough too, we are surpassing the volumes of the past for all the history of Cresud this year in the combination of the north, central, and south region of Argentina. In case of BrasilAgro, the production was lower.

The main explanation in the balance sheets is because the sugarcane of 2025 that was damaged because of frozen and drought, the combination of the two, so that made to suffer the operational business of BrasilAgro mainly, and that affected some yields in some regions of Brazil. Related to livestock, this year is a record for the history of Cresud, record in prices, in margins, in production, and we are improving our activity mainly in Argentina and some in Paraguay.

The cattle business is spending a very good time, and I will explain later. Related to the real estate, up to the 31st of March, there were not sales, but there was a subsequent sale in the fourth quarter for a small portion in Paraguay, 921 hectares, but net hectares are 500 hectares for $1.5 million.

Small fraction of sale in our Paraguay operation. Related to capital markets, we were very active during this quarter, the whole year.

We did $181 million on notes issuance on Argentine capital market and lowering the cost of financing of Cresud and extending the tenor of the debt. Saying that, we can move now to the page number 3, and we can see the increasing surface of agriculture in the planted area evolution.

We passed last year in 4% in size in hectares planted, and the combination of the four countries, and we can see the breakdown of 50% soybeans, 27 of corn, 9% of sugarcane. If we move to next page, the page number 4, we see the evolution of the price.

In the year there was a little recovery in the soybean, but the net recovery on the soybean combining basis and exchange rate mainly in Brazil is close to zero. Really, there is not a big effect of increasing prices in South America.

It's a Chicago and South America combination. I would say it's almost flat to farmers in the region, and so the good part, it's mainly because of the yields that we are achieving, and we can move now to next page.

We had very good conditions of climate. In the wheat, we had more than 30% surpassing our budget, and we are expecting good yields in the soybean and corn.

Soybeans in some countries is done. Brazil finished and was very close to budget, 1% drop, zero.

In Argentina, we are almost the same. This year is good in yields, and in prices, not big there's in soybeans good, little less in other crops, we have a good combination, the operational combination of the region is really very good in the highest size of our history.

We are going to see forecasting part of the balance sheet of the year, we are going to see a very good operational business mainly in Argentina. Here, we can see that we finished harvest in Brazil.

We finished harvest in Bolivia. In Argentina, few weeks ago was at seven.

Now we are advancing a lot. We are going to finish in 15, 30 days, we're going to finish Argentina rope in soybeans, and the corn is the more delayed that will need for up to July, August to finish.

The conditions are good, enough good, and good conditions for next campaign, too. Now in our autumn, we are recovering a lot of water in Argentina, mainly Argentina, we are going to plant a lot of winter crops, too.

Operational business of agriculture very positive. If we move to the forecast here, we see we are forecasting an increase comparing to last year of 22% in total crop production.

From the 829,000 tons, we are forecasting a million tons, our record in production in our history in the combination of the region, Argentina and the region. In sugarcane, too, here we are forecasting the sugarcane of '26, comparing to last year that we had the damage that is showing on the balance sheet, and we are expecting a recovery of 12% in yields, we are much high in crops and in sugarcane for the year.

We can see when we compare corn, we went from 550 to 593; in the soybeans, 260 to close to 290. This is the combination of first soybean, second soybean of the whole region, in the combination of the region, we had a very important increase.

We see 13% in Argentina, 5% in Brazil, 65% in Bolivia and Paraguay, a big increase. We are going to normal, 2.58 in Paraguay, 178 comparing to bad year of last year in Paraguay.

In the corn, a 8% combined in the three countries. Here we see 11% in Argentina, 4% in Brazil, 36% in Paraguay, more normalized in the northern part of Argentina and in Paraguayan region, too.

Highest in volume and in yield of the history. If we move now to next page, we can see the livestock activity in Argentina, the recovery of prices of Argentina that was at the bottom and went to the very high prices for the kilogram of beef, and in Argentina in the graph on the right part, we see there is not still a recovery on the inventory of the livestock of the country.

With these prices still, we'd be expecting a recovery, but still is not, still is going down to a 51 million heads in Argentina, and the prices are flying, and with those prices and achieving very high productivity, 10.7 million kg, big production having not so big stock, but very efficient, we are expecting a very very profitable year. Here we are putting the production forecast, but the margins are really incredible, the highest of the history of cattle business in Argentina.

Here we are expanding our feedlot in El Tigre, La Pampa, we are increasing the volume on the cattle business in Argentina because of the combination of very good price and low price of the inputs of the mainly the grains, making a very profitable activity comparable to agriculture. Today, Cresud, and probably in the fourth quarter, we are going to show the expansion and the evolution of the cattle business that is making a much more comparable than in the past to the agriculture.

Not even, but very comparable in margins. Saying that, we can move now to page number 8 and looking at what is happening in FyO, our company service company, commercial company, where Cresud owns 51%, we are expecting to keep growing.

The forecast was 7.60, but we think that Argentine crop will be keep growing and FyO will keep growing from this number, too, representing a big portion of Argentine volume through the trading volume, no? This company is servicing farmers in advising them, helping in capital, in all kind of inputs and outputs for the farmers, and making an EBITDA of $25 million of last four years.

We are expecting to have a comparable number this year. This company issue some notes during the period, $28 million, and with that proceeds, is not only doing the business in Argentina, inputs and outputs, we can here see the Biond Agro is the Brazilian name, and this company is going to a half a million tons of volume in Brazil, is expanding globally in the South American region.

This company is keep growing in a very fast pace. Saying that, I will now introduce to Matías Gaivironsky to explain us about the investment in IRSA that Cresud owns.

Matías Gaivironsky

Thank you, Alejandro. Good afternoon, everybody.

When we move to page 9 about our investment in IRSA, remember that Cresud today control 53.44% of IRSA, but after the exercise of the warrants on a fully diluted basis, we will have 55%. IRSA during this nine-month period posted very good numbers with a net gain of 239.7 billion pesos, with all the lines growing in real terms against last year, shopping malls increasing revenues and EBITDA, the same in the office and the hotel portfolio.

The office portfolio is running at 100% occupancy, and the hotels also we saw an improvement in rates, in occupancy, and in margins. Also IRSA announced a new development of a new office building adjacent to the MercadoLibre the Zetta building in Polo DOT.

IRSA already signed an agreement with MercadoLibre that they will rent most part of the building. Regarding Ramblas, the main project of IRSA, we continue with the development and the commercialization of the different plot of lands.

During the quarter, we signed two additional lots, we already signed 15 lots plus two lots that we sold in cash. As you can see in the graph, the evolution of the increase against last year on the rental segment was 3.5% in real terms.

Going to the next page. To understand the results on our balance sheet, you have to understand the drivers on inflation and devaluation, what is impacting in our numbers.

As we have to adjust our balance sheet by inflation, while our revenues in most part of the business line in the agriculture business is more related to dollars. In this nine-month period, we have an inflation that was 55% against the devaluation that was 15%.

That generate a lot of distortions that I will try to explain, but many are related to that. If we probably post numbers or results in dollar terms will be completely different.

Going to next page, you can see that regarding the operational results on the agribusiness, we see a drop basically are two drivers. The first one is related to farmland sales that, as Alejandro mentioned, during the last year we sold significant assets, and this year we only sold small portions, and we already signed one, but the results will be posted in the next quarter.

Then regarding the farming activity, we see a drop in grains. We have negative numbers in the balance sheet part is related, as I mentioned, we have to adjust all the costs for inflation, and the income that we are estimating in part of the goods, we haven't finished the harvest, also we will see final results in the next quarter, but some are impacted by this effect on estimation in prices and adjusting the cost by inflation.

When we split this result in between Brazil and Argentina, in Argentina we have better results. In Brazil, although we have very good numbers in terms of yield, prices are lower than the previous year, we are not posting a loss because of that.

Regarding the sugarcane, as Alejandro mentioned, during this period, we have an impact in yields because of weather conditions and also increasing costs of production, for that reason, we have this loss. About the cattle segment, as well we have very good numbers in yields, very good numbers in price, all these drivers are very positive, but when we express the numbers in pesos terms, we are not seeing the same results that if we see these numbers in dollar terms.

Going to next page, also an important driver when you analyze this nine-month period for Cresud is the change in the fair value of investment properties. Almost all of the results came from our investment in IRSA.

IRSA has to value every quarter the investment properties, the shoppings, the offices, and land bank in a fair value, and last year because of the evolution of the inflation and devaluation, there was a drop during last year, and this year we see a positive number because we revaluated part of the mall portfolio in dollar terms. About the other important number came in the net financial results that we still see a positive number.

It's basically related to the net effects result that since we have much lower devaluation than inflation, that generates a positive number, this year 146.1 billion pesos. About the net interest, we see an increase here compared with the previous year.

We have a little more debt at IRSA level, at BrasilAgro level, and in Cresud is stable, but last year the composition was a little we have some of the debt in pesos term, and we value or we adjust that by inflation, you have to segregate inflation from the interest rate, for that reason appears to be lower than what really is. With all these drivers, we finished the nine-month period with a gain of 231.3 billion pesos, attributable to our controlling shareholders was 121.6 billion pesos compared with last year 77.3 billion pesos.

If we move to next page about our debt, the net debt remained stable, but was a very active quarter regarding our financial activity. Taking advantage of market conditions, we decided to move forward and refinancing most part of the upcoming amortizations for this year and almost the next year.

We issue $181.4 million in different transactions for four different tranches with interest rate that goes from 4.75 to 7.25, with this we extend the tenor of our debt and also reduce the interest payment for the future. Also during the quarter, finally there was the expiration of the warrants that we issued in 2021, almost all the warrants were exercised, and today the total shares outstanding are 709 million shares, and we haven't any more warrants outstanding.

With this, we finish the formal presentation. Now I'd like to open the line for any question that you may have.

We begin the Q&A session. If you have a question, please use the chat.

We are going to take the questions in the order we've received them. Here we have the first question related to hectares that we own in Argentina, excluding BrasilAgro, and just the owned land, not under concession.

We have a farm in the north of Argentina that accounts for 132,000 hectares under concession, and then we have some lease activity. I think the question is just for the owned land in Argentina, and how is the mix between crops and cattle?

Alejandro Elsztain

From the agriculture of Argentina, we can see in page number 3, Argentina is close to 150,000 hectares, and from those, it's almost half and half, the own and the lease, so that would be a good breakdown of a 50/50 in Argentina. In Brazil is a little bigger, the lease to be a little more, I would say 60/40, and in Bolivia it's almost all owned, and Paraguay 100% owned, talking about agriculture to total.

In Argentina is a close to a 50/50. From the 150, 75/75, almost that.

Matías Gaivironsky

Thank you, Alejandro. A question from BTG regarding land values in Argentina.

You mentioned recovering land values in the country and a stronger interest in your assets. Can you give us a sense of the pipeline of land sales heading into the fourth quarter or next fiscal year?

Alejandro Elsztain

In general, we don't speak about things that are not ready and not done, but in Argentina, there is a big increase on the land. If from 2013, Argentina disconnected to the world mainly because of the two big effects: taxes on exports and gap on the dollars.

In the combination of the two, a recovery of the price of the land of the world came, but not to Argentina. Now in the world, there is an adjustment on the price of the land.

I would speak about a small decrease in the American United States prices, a bigger decrease in Brazilian, but a recovery in Argentina because of that disconnection of 2013. At the same time, the price of the land is decreasing a 5%, 10% or more in Brazil that is suffering a lot, in Argentina, there is an increase, and if we talk about sources on the price of the land, they talk about the corn belt of Argentina moving from the $13,000, $14,000 to the 50% increase, I would say, in the corn belt of Argentina.

Transactions and liquidity is increasing. Many investors from abroad and from Argentina are deciding to go to the asset that has very discount.

There were not transactions the first nine months. We expect the last quarter and there are some other transactions under discussions.

I'm very optimistic on the liquidity on the real estate business of Cresud. Not having in the first nine months, but I'm very optimistic in Argentina.

In Brazil, there are some regions that they are very now that they are very big on the radar mainly because of the irrigation projects. A very big interest in Bahia region.

I'm expecting for the next three quarters many transactions on the real estate. We have very good nine months on the production.

Now I think real estate is bringing back, and some probably purchases in Brazil in some more areas that they were more damaged in prices that Cresud BrasilAgro is going to buy.

Matías Gaivironsky

Thank you. There are some questions regarding stakes in the different subsidiaries of Cresud.

I will try to answer them summarizing. There are questions regarding the warrants exercise of Cresud in IRSA.

Currently, the stake is 53%, but after the fully exercise in the last window that is coming in the next week, it's going to go to levels of 55% stake. Then regarding BrasilAgro, the current stake is 35%, and Hipotecario, that is another question, is under IRSA, and IRSA owns 29% of the bank.

I think I answered different questions related to the stake of Cresud in different subsidiaries. There is a question here related to the general outlook, the political situation, and elections coming, and also the free trade agreements that Argentina is negotiating with the US, and Mercosur with Europe, if it will help and will boost the sector.

Alejandro Elsztain

Yes, I think macroeconomically speaking, Argentina is making a very good job. Between the taxes reduction that began, not was done, a promise of the government that will keep doing.

We went from the 33% to the 24% in soybeans, a 20% decrease, but the gaps on the dollars was dramatic. It's close to zero or 1% or 2%, but it's coming from 100% or 170% is close to zero.

The sector is spending very good time with the promise of keep reducing taxes. The government, I think carefully, is not giving that before the raising the activity or raising the amount of taxes through other things, I think and the farmers are waiting patiently without a problem.

From other side, the government signed with US and signed with the European Union two trade agreements that help mainly in the cattle business, increasing from 20,000 to 100,000 in the two cases volumes, increasing 80,000 tons of volumes with no taxes that will support a lot the activity for the cattle, and helping all the mission of agriculture for the country. This government understand the importance and is reducing on time.

Yes, many good measures, and China increased the volumes of Argentina, from 400,000 is going to 500,000 tons. All of the measures and rules coming to farmers are good.

Yes, I think Argentina is connecting to the normal volume of the world and the normalization of the activity to the rest of the players like United States, Brazil, Australia, or other exporters agriculture.

Matías Gaivironsky

There is I think one more here related to Agrofy, if you can give some color on the performance of the company.

Alejandro Elsztain

Agrofy is a company that Cresud owns close to 17% of the shares, is not the controller. It's a company that began through many investors, big investors of the world, and it's a marketplace for agriculture.

This company was made in many rounds. Finally, a year and a half ago, did the last round of $2.4 million.

Now we are putting the last $400,000 of this round, and the company, it's very close to break-even after many reorganization. This company grew a lot through capital issues, but finally understood that needs to be at a smaller size of head count.

Today is a company of 35 employees, very close to break-even. We are now spending $100,000 per month, and we expecting three months to be break-even.

This company is one of the survivors on the digitalization world of agriculture, still with a challenge. It's not positive as FyO is, making a $20 million, $25 million EBITDA, but Agrofy is surviving, and the investors are supporting the strategy, and the company is doing a very good job in this environment that they are not selling as much as we expected in the past, but if we survive and we keep organically using the AI, this company has a lot of AI applied, we expect this company to be one of the players helping farmers to reduce cost and comparing to other companies.

We are optimistic that past the worst part of the wave, and it's close to break-even. After break-even will be much different story.

Matías Gaivironsky

I think we cover all the questions. I'll give you 1 second more for any additional question that you may have.

If there are no more questions, we can conclude the presentation and the Q&A, and I turn back to Alejandro just for his final notes.

Alejandro Elsztain

We have only one quarter left on the balance sheet. We have a good combination of factors in the very tough situation for many parts of the world in agriculture, our company having the three legs of real estate, operation, and servicing.

It's a very well position, not big in debt, and rotating the portfolio, receivables of farms in the case of Brazil. We are in a very good condition to take advantage of these opportunities they are appearing.

Just to thank you, and let's finish our next quarter, the balance sheet of the year. Thank you very much, and have a very good day.

Matías Gaivironsky

Thank you.