Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia's second-quarter 2026 earnings call.
This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's website at gfgsa.com. We would like to inform that all attendees will only be listening the conference during the presentation.
Then, we'll start a question-and-answer session when further instructions will be provided. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the US federal securities laws and are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.
Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry, and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr.
Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.
Pablo Firvida
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining this conference call.
Before reviewing our operating performance, I would like to briefly address the macroeconomic backdrop that shaped the performance of the financial system during the quarter and provide context for our business trends. According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, EMAE, the Argentine economy expanded 2.7% year-over-year in June and recovered 0.8% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Despite this monthly improvement, activity remained 1.1% below December 2025 levels, mainly reflecting the declines recorded in April and May. In the second quarter of 2026, the primary surplus stood at 0.4% of GDP, in line with the level recorded in the second quarter of 2025.
On a year-to-date basis, the primary surplus reached 0.8% of GDP. During the first half of the year, total revenues declined 5.7% year-over-year in real terms, while primary spending decreased 2.8% in real terms.
The National Consumer Price Index accumulated a 33.5% increase on a year-over-year basis and a 16% increase during the first half of 2026. During the quarter, monthly inflation decelerated from 3.4% in March to 1.9% in June.
The monetary base expanded by 4.1 trillion pesos during the second quarter and 8.5 trillion pesos from the end of June 2025, representing a 23% year-over-year growth. In June 2026, the exchange rate averaged 1,450 pesos per dollar, implying an 18.5% year-over-year depreciation.
The average rate on 30-day peso-denominated private sector time deposits above 1 million pesos-- billion pesos, TM20, stood at 22.7%, 10.9 percentage points below the June 2025 average. Turning now to the financial system, private-sector peso-denominated deposits averaged 117.4 trillion pesos in June, increasing 8.4% during the quarter and 31.8% over the last 12 months.
Time deposits grew 8.2% during the quarter and 45.5% year-over-year, while peso-denominated transactional deposits declined 8.4% during the quarter, but increased 17.1% year-over-year. Private-sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $39.4 billion, increasing 1.9% during the quarter and 29.6% over the last 12 months.
Peso-denominated loans to private sector averaged 98.7 trillion pesos in June, increasing 6.8% quarter-over-quarter and 36.4% year-over-year. Private-sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $23.5 billion, recording a 14.6% quarterly growth and a 48.8% annual increase.
Overall, the second quarter was characterized by a more stable macroeconomic environment, improving real activity indicators, and continued expansion across key financial system aggregates. Moving on to Grupo Galicia, net income for the second quarter amounted to 258 billion pesos, 12% higher than in the previous year, which represented a 2.1% return on average assets and an 11.3% return on average shareholders' equity.
This result was mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for 158 billion pesos, from Fondos FIMA for 38 billion pesos, from Naranja X for 36 billion pesos, from Galicia Seguros for 23 billion pesos, and from Galicia Securities for 8 billion pesos. Banco Galicia net income improved by 211% sequentially and 21% compared to the second quarter of 2025, supported by lower funding costs due to the consolidation of lower interest rates, stronger performance from government securities and derivatives, and a modest expansion in net interest margin.
Credit quality trends also improved, reducing loan loss provisions, while ongoing integration synergies from Galicia Mas, ex-HSBC, drove further efficiency gains. Results additionally benefited from lower inflation-driven monetary losses in a decelerating inflation environment.
Average interest-earning assets reached 30 trillion pesos, 6% higher than in the previous quarter, primarily driven by a 27% higher volume of government securities in pesos and a 37% higher volume of government securities in dollars, together with a 9% growth of dollar-denominated loans, while peso-denominated loans decreased 7% in line with a more selective origination policy and lower demand. In the same period, its yield decreased 490 basis points, reaching 21.1%, 34.8% in peso portfolio and 7.4% in the dollar portfolio, due to lower yields on both local and foreign-currency-denominated loans.
Interest-bearing liabilities decreased 3% from March 2026, amounting to 24 trillion pesos, mainly due to a 10% lower volume of liabilities in dollars, partially offset by an 8% increase in peso-denominated time deposits. During this period, its cost decreased 159 basis points to 10.1%, reflecting the broad-based decline in interest rates that began towards the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Net interest income decreased 3% when compared to the prior quarter. Interest income declined 8%, mainly driven by a 17% lower interest income from loans and other financing due to lower volumes and the decline in interest rates during the quarter.
This was partially offset by a 20% higher income from government securities, primarily driven by a higher average portfolio and stronger returns from CPI-linked securities. Interest expenses were 16% lower, mainly related to deposits.
Net fee income increased by 2% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a 14% decrease of fee expenses. Net income from financial instruments was 275% higher than in the previous quarter, mainly due to lower losses from derivative financial instruments, which decreased 85%, an 84% rise in results from the derecognition of assets driven by sales of government securities classified at fair value through OCI, 50% higher gains from government securities measured at fair value, and a recovery in the results from private-sector securities.
Results from quotation difference of foreign currency decreased 13% quarter-on-quarter. This performance was explained by a lower level of transactional activity given that the previous quarter had registered a higher volume of operations by retail customers.
Provisions for loan losses declined 8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a decrease in loans becoming stage 3 and the associated deterioration of that portfolio, reflecting signs of improvement in the delinquency indicators observed during the quarter. Personnel expenses went up 12% sequentially, due to an increase in the provisions for variable payments aligned with the improvement in the financial performance, while administrative expenses were flat quarter-on-quarter.
Other operating expenses declined 15% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 14% lower turnover tax, 13% lower other fee-related expenses, and a 21% decrease in other financial results. The bank's financing to the private sector reached nearly 25 trillion pesos at the end of the quarter, up 4% in the last quarter, with peso financing decreasing 4% and dollar-denominated financing up 19%.
Deposits reached 27 trillion pesos, 7% higher than a quarter before, due to a 7% growth of deposits in pesos and a 6% increase in dollar-denominated deposits. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 15.1%, 69 basis points higher than at the end of the previous quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 14.3%, 42 basis points higher than in the first quarter of 2026.
The bank's liquid assets represented 93.1% of transactional deposits and 55.2% of total deposits, compared to 95% and 56.6%, respectively, as of the previous quarter. As regards asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 8.3%, recording a 60-basis-point deterioration as compared to the 7.7% of the first quarter of 2026.
The coverage with allowances reached 92.8%, up from 91.4% recorded in the prior quarter. As of the end of June, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 26%, while the Tier 1 ratio was 25.9%, both increasing 48 basis points from the end of the prior quarter.
In summary, during the second quarter, profitability improved sequentially, supported by a stronger contribution from financial instruments, lower funding costs, reduced loan loss provisions, and continued efficiency gains from the integration. Business volumes remained resilient, with growth in total financing and deposits, particularly in dollar-denominated loans, while we continued to gain market share in both loans and deposits.
At the same time, the non-performing loan ratio increased during the quarter, although coverage levels improved and provisions declined, reflecting early signs of stabilization. Overall, Grupo Galicia maintained strong liquidity and solvency metrics and will remain focused on disciplined growth, preserving capital strength, and further improving asset quality and profitability over the coming quarters.
Now, Gonzalo Fernandez Cobo will make some additional remarks.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you, Pablo. Talking about our financial performance, as Pablo said, we saw a better quarter as interest rates stabilized at lower levels, with margins slightly increasing too and also better returns from our bond portfolio.
Our cost of risk continued going down, as we expected, and expenses under control, enjoying the results of last year's restructuring. Talking about volume, loan growth continued to be slow due to the low demand in the commercial credit side in pesos, better in dollars, and a strict origination policies on the consumer side.
We expect some recovery in the lending volume in the second half. Our projections for loan growth are now around 10 to 15%, with more participation of dollar side for companies, as it has been happening in the in the second quarter.
We see deposits growing around 10% for the year. As we said in prior calls, cost of risk already had its peak on the fourth quarter, and we started to see credit losses charges to decrease in the first and the second quarter.
Stabilization and reduction of NPLs will take one more quarter than expected. We are seeing now the peak in the second quarter, in June now, with a stabilization and reduction going forward.
In the bank, we expect a slight decrease in of NPLs ratio in the third quarter and reaching around 6.3% at the at the end of this year on the NPL ratio. We see a cost of risk for the bank around 8.3% for the full year 2026.
That's our expectation for the rest of the year. We are now at 9.3%.
We expect that credit losses charges will continue going down in the second half, as it had been happening in the first two quarters. On the cost side, we are capturing the benefit of the restructuring made last year, as I said, after the HSBC acquisition, and expect to end the year 11% lower cost than prior year.
We already have the same amount of headcount than the one we had before the acquisition of HSBC. Lastly, regarding returns, we see our ROE around 10% for the year.
We trust that the lending volume will pick up to achieve this goal. Of course, while while the lending growth is slow, we also invest in other earning assets like government bonds at good yields.
The goal here is to grow earning assets to be able to continue to improve earnings and results. With that, I think we are open for questions.
Operator
We are going to start the question-and-answer session for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please press the button Raise Hand.
If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on Put Hand Down. Please hold while we poll for questions.
Our first question comes from Daniel Vaz from Safra.
Daniel Vaz
Hi, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity of making questions.
Gonzalo and Pablo, maybe my first question will be on your macro expectations for the year. I guess, last quarter you mentioned inflation between 28 and 29%.
I would love to get your your views on on that at the margin, as we're looking at August. It seems like inflation is a little bit better, but I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Secondly, I'd like to touch base on your on your loan growth between 10 to 15%, as you mentioned right now. Your also appetite to government bond at good yields.
Do you think your loan growth could be maybe picking up later as you have good government bonds at good yields right now for you to capture? Or and maybe your asset qualities isn't as good as you expected for the for the beginning of the year?
I guess my question is maybe 2027 we still have a not so great loan growth, but good yields improving from from treasury results. Maybe that's the your your P&L balance would be more inclined to that.
Is it a good assumption? Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you for the question. First talking about economic projections for the year, we see inflation at 29, around 29% for the year.
GDP growth around 2.6%. It's around the same numbers you were mentioning regarding inflation.
Regarding our our portfolio mix and our I would say that it's both. We are concentrated in in trying to to to grow loans because that's that's the business, we we we want to grow because it's the one that is sustainable.
We are, very close to to our customers and mainly commercial customers to see opportunities. We have seen some dollar opportunities that we that we capture mainly in in the oil and gas arena and also there have been some privatizations of of state-owned companies that we have been, supporting some of the groups, bidding for for those that also they require some financing.
We are actively there. Of course, is still slower than than than what we would like.
On the other hand, yes, we we grew in government bonds. I would say that government bonds has a limit.
It's not something that, in order to continue to improve results, we need to grow our balance sheet from the stage we are now. We can still grow some we have room to grow more more government bonds, but the point is that it is a we have internal limits, of course, for for prudence.
We need to grow lending also. Also to clarify, in the in the in the bond portfolio, we have two things.
We can have the bond portfolio to buy longer longer-term bonds to have to put them to accrue. We can classify them as hold to collect and sell or or or hold to collect and and leave them to accrue interest.
Also we have the trading activity, as that that will continue to happen. That we see opportunities to buy bonds and and and and and and, and then sell them and buy longer terms, we will capture the difference.
It will be both. The trade activity, of course, are going to be very very active, as we have been in the in the second quarter to to capture opportunities, while while, as Argentina we have some volatility between now and the elections because it's usual when elections come closer, we we try to get advantage on that.
We will continue to see opportunities to, capture new new bonds that have good yields and and just have them accruing interest. At the same time, we need to grow our lending portfolio because, as I said, we have internal limits for for growth for for allocation, for keeping our bond portfolio.
We need we need to do business with clients with the private sector. I think that's something that will we will be focused on, and we are very focused on, and we'll continue to be focused on.
Daniel Vaz
All right, thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Thank you. Hi.
Good morning, Gonzalo, Pablo, and the team, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question is one that I made to the other banks, and it was on the political and macro outlook.
I think it was a couple of weeks ago, a few weeks ago, we started to see some surveys or kind of initial polls ahead of the presidential election next year. Just wanted to to hear your thoughts on what are you seeing in terms of the business sentiment, the consumer confidence, the family indebtedness, the financing of the RIGI projects.
Is this something that Galicia can actually participate, or it would be more the next years? All of these things ahead of the election.
My second question is on your ROE guidance. You delivered 7% the first half.
You mentioned a number. I wasn't I didn't get it.
If you can also remind us what was the ROE now for the year and how should we think about the evolution during the second half. Also, how do you see your medium-term ROE?
When do you expect that to start recovering? When do you see loan growth start recovering, because you've said you you have reduced the guidance to 10 to 15%?
Just wondering how you're seeing the picture more for for the next year. Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you, Ernesto. Talking about the future between now and the elections, we'll see that that Argentina always, when there is elections, we we may have some volatility.
We are not seeing it yet. We see that Central Bank has a a good and a stronger set of of reserves that can help face any volatility issue or or or any higher demand on dollars than, for example, what happened with last mid-term elections.
We we believe that that will help that if there is any volatility, that is something that is controlled, that is something that won't generate big big disruptions. I think that's good for for the for what we are seeing.
I think looking at polls at at this time is is is is a bit too early. These these can change every minute.
We are not really focusing on that. As we are here in Argentina for the long term.
We we we want to do business regardless the the the situation. Of course, with caution, when we see that that delinquency is going up, well, we we we'll change our solution policies, and we adapt to each of the moments.
Far, things are doing fine. GDP is growing.
We are, as I said before, very close to our commercial customers, mainly in the oil and gas arena in trying to serve all the value chain and all the suppliers also of all the the the oil companies and something that we are doing, and we are, of course, participating. The RIGI, financing is is is very very big tickets, at some point the local financial system will participate with in a very small portion, and some of those for those financings are already, satisfied with with international issuances.
Of course, we are there for any any local portion of the for the financing that is needed and also, as I said before, to to serve the value chain of of the bigger of the bigger companies. As I said, so far so good.
We expect some volatility as as always, but nothing really big because we we we we see that Central Bank is better capitalized and with better reserves than the ones that that that had in the last the last elections. We see talking about you also mentioned indebtedness of the families.
We see that that's improving, at least in our in our portfolio, that's improving and we are seeing our our roll rates improving. That's something that, of course, taking caution on on on on where to lend.
I think, at least for for for financial system, the worst is is we are leaving the behind the worst, no? Talking about returns, ROE, what we are seeing the ROE for the year is 10%, around 10%.
Cannot measure that number, but I would say around 10%. We are 7 and something cumulative.
Of course, we we we see that that will continue improving. I would say around 12% try to end the year with something around 12%.
That that's a that's the goal and that's what we are expecting, and what that's what we are aiming to. For that, we need to continue growing our our lending portfolio, of course, at a lower level than what we expected at the beginning of the year.
We are confident that, mainly in the commercial side, we can get some traction from now from now on. Talking about, medium-term ROE, of course, that's our when when we talk about next year, I think we are we we we are aiming to to be at 15%.
I think it's too soon to give a guidance for next year, but that's our target and our aim for next year, and we will confirm a guidance in in in in third-quarter call, that will be closer to year end. That's at least what we are aiming and when we do our projections and when we try to shape our balance sheet towards that.
Again, we confirm that later in the year. When we talk about medium term, well, medium term is always where our aim is to be above 15%, no?
We always say between 15 and 20. We need to see when we are going to achieve that.
As we have talked in the past, we have the inflation accounting, that is something that is a burden for Argentine banks. As inflation continue to go down, I would say that, in the last year that we have inflation accounting, with the lower inflation, it will hurt us more than when we used to have high inflation, because interest rates will continue to go down, and with a lower inflation, having that drag in the P&L will be harder, and also will be more comparable with other countries, and but we're still having the inflation accounting.
When we are going to reach that, well, it is is is hard to say. Of course, that for sure when inflation accounting is is gone, we still need to see when when that that will happen.
Our long-term ROE target is 15-20. Talking about next year, we we we are aiming at 15%.
We'll confirm later in the year if that's that's something that we'll see feasible.
Ernesto Gabilondo
Perfect. No, super helpful.
Thank you very much, Gonzalo.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.
Tito Labarta
Hi. Good morning, Gonzalo, Pablo.
Thank you for the call and taking my questions. Just I guess, my question is more on the deposit side of things.
We did see a pickup in deposits in the quarter, even in in peso deposits, although there was a about a 20% jump on the savings deposits. Just to think about how are you thinking about deposit growth going forward both in pesos and in foreign currency in you know to a degree, in terms of liquidity, if loan growth does improve into next year?
The ability to to fund that, and if you think this pickup we saw in the peso deposits, in particular, is that sustainable? Was there anything particular in the quarter that was that jumped in the savings deposits?
Um, and yeah, I guess how you see that going forward? Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you. The deposits, we grew deposits in the second quarter.
We expect this to to to continue. As I said, we expect for this year total growth of 10% in deposits.
We have been managing also the balance sheet. When we see that the that the that lending is tracking, then we also go and raise deposits.
It's not something that that we we have been managing. At some time, we are not growing deposits because, we we don't need them.
We prefer to do a more efficient balance sheet management. Of course, we continue to to to work with customers to to increase transactional deposits and sight deposits.
In terms of time deposits, that is the one that we have been lagging, but lagging mainly on purpose because, as we don't see the the the the loans, tracking high, we prefer to to to manage better the the the balance sheet. The deposits are there.
We have trick proved that when we go and and look for them, we we we get those deposits. It's something that that will will will continue raising if if if the if the lending is higher, as we expect it will happen.
That that was pesos. In terms of dollars, yeah, we see some growth, but it will be, of course, lower than before.
We don't have now a tax amnesty like that there there is something, but we don't see that it will be that that that explosive that the ones of of years before. As as US dollar lending continues, okay, we are going to also be active in the markets with issuances in the local market in dollars.
We have been issuing commercial papers, and we'll continue that to fund also lending in dollars, that is the one from the the wholesale arena, with the one that we we see tracking better. It's something that we we we are not that concerned because we we think that we can bring those deposits if the the the lending is there.
Tito Labarta
Okay. No, thanks, Gonzalo.
Maybe just one follow-up question, I guess this one on capital. We did see a bit of an increase in your capital ratios this quarter, but, with ROE still below cost of capital, right?
How do you think about the capital ratio evolution from here? Thanks.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Capital ratio, as as is is high, it allow us to grow and to to we think that we have enough capital for the next three years, I would say this year and three more, for for the for with healthy growth, not with the growth that we've had that we have been having, which is is low. We expect that at some point Argentina will will start growing its its its loans as percentage of GDP.
We for for the year end, we expect to be between 24 and 25%, I would say, capital capital ratio. Then, on top of that, we we, with our estimations and and paying a reasonable amount of dividends, which is more or less what we have been paying in the past, we expect to have capital for for the next three years with a with with a with a country that is growing in real terms the lending, and without needing to raise capital, at least for three years.
Then, of course, we'll see. We we we are okay with this.
We prefer we think that the value of our franchise is is the growth ahead rather than higher dividends. We will be combining dividends, but but but at a point that let us growth and capture the the the opportunities Argentina may bring if everything continues with in the stabilization path.
We think that we've got a right level of capital for the growth that Argentina can bring the next the next two, three years.
Tito Labarta
Perfect. Thank you, Gonzalo.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Brian Flores from Citi. Um,
Brian Flores
hi, Gonzalo and Pablo. My question is on the net interest margin sustainability.
This quarter benefited from funding costs repricing faster than asset yields, and from stronger results on CER-linked securities. As rates continue to normalize, how should investors think about the balance between net interest margin pressure from low lower loan yields and support from funding costs and treasury positioning?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
I would say that, yeah, of course, that margins will will will continue to to to have pressures on the downside as as as inflation goes down. For the year, talking about the bank, I think we we see margins at at 16% for the year, for the full year.
We are a bit higher now, but we still see that the second half maybe have some some pressure to the downside. Full year, an average of 16, I think is is is fair to say.
Then, of course, next year and forward, onwards, that that will have more pressure to the downside if inflation continues going down, as we expect. That's fine.
We believe that also the inflation accounting will will go down, and the yes, that's why we're working also in efficiency, in expenses reduction in order to compensate that. Of course, total margin is is affected by the mix of peso and dollars, no?
It's totally different, as the the the mix the margin between peso, which is above 20%, and dollars, which is 3-4%. As we have been growing the dollar lending, our margin is also affected by that.
It's not that we are deteriorating the peso the peso margin, but the mix affects the number. That will also be affected on the future, depending on on how how the mix evolves going forward.
Again, we are getting ready our structure, our cost reduction initiatives, and everything for a bank that will have lower margins as will happen with Argentina with a lower inflation. On the other side, we will have lower accounting inflation impact, so that will also be compensating the the effects.
Brian Flores
Good. Thank you.
Now, it's much clearer. Just one follow-up, please.
Looking ahead, what do you see as the single largest driver for ROE expansion from current levels towards your your through-the-cycle profitability ambitions: credit growth, lower credit costs, operating leverage, or balance sheet optimization?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
I would say that credit growth, we need to grow our our our top line, our our credit, so that's the main one. Cost of risk reduction, we are still at high levels of cost of risk.
We we know that. We need to continue reducing it.
It's something that is slow. Of course, we are aiming at some point to get it to a 5, 5.5% cost of risk.
We we ended with 9.3%. We are still, at higher at higher levels.
That will, but that will be reducing quarter-by-quarter, as I said before. For the year, we expect to be at 8.3%, and we are at 9.3% now.
That will also be felt in this year and next year, because next year we expect to have another notch down on cost of risk, so that will be another big contributor to profitability. We continue, with our our our working efficiency, even though we we made a big one after the HSBC acquisition, we continue not with majors initiatives, but with our regular business-as-usual plan of, headcount reduction, branches reduction or branches optimizations, that we will continue, we can, be more efficient, bring more automation, bring more AI to to to to also help to contribute to the margin reduction.
The only point where it won't come is for margins increase, if if if Argentina continues in this path, but it will be then a mix of balance sheet growth, long lending growth, better cost of risk, and and and and better better efficiency.
Brian Flores
Thank you very much.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Yuri Fernandes from JP Morgan.
Yuri Fernandes
Hey, Gonzalo, Pablo, Etienne, and everyone. Thank you for the opportunity of asking questions.
Just a clarification regarding a few of your guidance, especially the cost of risk. I think you mentioned 8.3% for the full year.
Just checking if this is the end of period or if this is the average for the year, and if this is Banco Galicia, or if this is the entire holding, because I guess your your cost of risk for the first half for the group has been running around 11, 11.5%, and for the bank around 9.4 9.4%. Just checking 8.3%, this is the 4Q '26, or is this the average of the year?
That's question number one. The same about margins.
You just mentioned NIMs around 16%, but when I look to the NIMs of the group here, I see your NIMs for the first half closer to 18%, like 17.9, 17.8%. My question is if this is the average, or the end of period, because if this is the average, this would imply a much lower NIM in the second half of the year.
Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Sorry. I was talking about the bank.
Maybe I didn't qualify that. It's the 8.3% is just the bank, which is at 9.3% now, going to 8.3% for the full year, for the 12 months, let's say, I mean.
So 8.3% will expect to be the the cost of risk of the bank only for the full year. When I was talking about margins, yes, I was talking also about the bank, which is around 17-something.
We expect just to end the year at 16%, but in the bank. The the full group will be more or less around the the total group, I think is almost 18.
I think we expect to end the year around 17, let's say. In the last quarter, at 17%.
In in group, and 16% in the bank. Cost of risk is was bank, and is the full year, the 12 months.
No, no, super
Yuri Fernandes
super clear. Thanks for for the clarification.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Eduardo Rezende from UBS.
Eduardo Rezende
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.
I have two on my side. First, a quick follow-up on the growth trends that you highlighted.
You mentioned some opportunities in corporate dollar loans and expanding the private sector. I just would like to know if we what we could expect for the for the retail segment.
If this more restrictive approach that we saw in recent quarters could continue. This is the first question.
The second one is regarding NPLs. You mentioned about some stability trends in the end of the quarter, and we also saw that the the broader system trends.
If you could provide a quick color on on which segments are driving this this more more significant inflation, it would be very helpful.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Okay. The first was the growth, no, in in retail.
No, we we are we are, working hard in in in in in trying to grow also the retail portfolio, mainly in the personal loans arena, working with risk in order to, go to different segments. We have been seeing our volume in personal loans picking up from the bottom that we had that it was kind of of the of the first quarter of this year.
We have been growing the the daily volume. Still, it's moving the total portfolio is being moved slowly, but we expect that for the for the second half that can increase.
Again, very carefully, going to the right segments. We have now better products with at lower rates with better with better for better segments than going after those that even though they have lower rates, they have also lower lower cost of risk, also its profitability is the same.
We expect, my point is we don't expect the growth we used to have still this year. Of course, at some point, we'll resume the growth.
For the second half, I would say that our portfolio of personal loans may grow 4 to 5%. That's that's better than what we have been seeing.
It's something that we are working and and doing, champion challengers all the time in order to find ways to grow in the retail segment with with good credit quality, no? That means something that So we expect to improve, not at at the point of the commercial side.
Again, we'll be very close we are being being very close to that. To see whether is the moment to restart the growth in that in that arena.
The second point was NPLs, no? NPLs, yeah, we have seen we we are starting to see the the the the turnaround of that.
This piece is mainly the main products we have is credit cards and personal loans. In both, we are seeing that.
Of course, that as as we said before, we we are targeting different segments now, and and and we are attacking also different segments, higher, I would say higher segments, and that's paying back. We and that's why we are seeing the the improvements.
We still continue to do champion challengers to to lower segments, and still it's not the time to grow to go back to lower segments, but at some point we will. For the end of the year, we expect to be at 6.3% in the bank of NPLs.
That's that's a a reduction from where we are now. We are at 8.3%.
In general, we are seeing the amounts of of of of customers, going or rolling through stage 2 and stage 3 improving, it's something that we expect to continue to see, and we are monitoring that very very close.
Eduardo Rezende
Super clear. Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC.
Carlos Gómez-López
Hello, Gonzalo. Hello, Pablo.
Thank you very much, and congratulations on the results, especially in the in the cost reduction. It's really really spectacular.
I had a question about the composition of the loan portfolio. A year ago, about a quarter was in dollars.
Now it's about a third which is in dollars. Do you have any type of internal limit?
Where do you see this portfolio going forward? Since we were asking about economic assumptions, where do you expect-- I know this is very difficult, where do you expect the dollar to be at the end of this year and next year?
Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you, Carlos. We have internal limits, but in terms of liquidity.
If our deposits grows, we can grow the the the portfolio. We are very strict in in in liquidity and very, very strict limits in in liquidity in dollars because, as Argentina has its history of of problems with that.
We are around 40% more or less liquidity in dollars, that we are always 40 to 50% liquidity, and that we are we are achieving that, complying with that. Our deposits in dollars grew a lot, so that's why we were able to increase portfolio in dollars.
A portfolio in dollars we have a a a high proportion of the portfolio in dollars which is short term, it's, exporter financing, which is very easy to not renew if we if our deposits in dollars goes down. Again, we see our we still have some room to grow with the current portfolio with the current deposits, but we are also, as I said before, issuing dollar commercial papers, so that will give us more capacity to lend in dollars.
The limit again is as a as a liquidity, liquidity over total deposits that we want to maintain, and and we are we are complying with that. The other question was Ah, the
Carlos Gómez-López
The dollar. [laughter]
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Dollar effects for for for the end of of this year, I think we are expecting like 1,600 and like 2,000, around 2,000 for the end of next year.
Carlos Gómez-López
Very clear. Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Thank you, Carlos.
Operator
The next question comes from Pedro from Latin Securities.
Hello, Gonzalo, Pablo, Etienne. Thank you for taking my question.
I wanted to ask on Naranja X specifically. We saw provisions declining quite significantly despite the increase in NPLs.
Obviously, the loan book also went down. To ask going forward, how is the new NPL formation evolving this this month?
Also on coverage, how should we think this 94%, I think, coverage on Naranja X and 90% on on Banco Galicia? It's more like a floor, and would you expect going back to 100%?
Pablo Firvida
Hi, Pedro. We can take the the advantage that we have Hernan Garcia, Naranja X CFO, to to answer the specific question about Naranja X, and then we we can discuss the the bank's coverage ratio.
Hernan?
Hernán García
Hi. Hello, Pedro.
Thank you for your question. As you mentioned, we are already in a reduction in the cost of risk during the second quarter.
For the second half, we still see a further reduction on on that metric. In terms of NPLs, for the year-end, we are expecting to to be around 16 or 17% from almost 20% level that we have during the second quarter.
As as I mentioned recently, it's important to stress the the trend that we're still seeing in short terms, delinquency rate, 30 days or four months rate delinquency rate are still going down, and that's why we are expecting a reduction in NPLs and a recovery in in terms of the coverage ratio to the range of 100%.
Perfect. Just to be clear, the number was 17% of NPLs for the year end?
Hernán García
Yes.
Perfect. Super clear.
Pablo Firvida
Yes, and and thank you, Hernan. In the case of the bank, we see gradual improvement in coverage, perhaps in the next next quarter getting to 95% and closer to 100% at year
end. Perfect.
Thank you, Pablo.
Pablo Firvida
You're welcome, Pedro.
Operator
The next question comes from Lisandro Gioveras from 1618.
Lisandro Guevara
Hi, team. I have a question regarding volumes in loans.
If you can please do a double-click in the 10 to 15% loan growth, if it is it's expected peso loans to to have a real growth or all real growth will come from dollar loans? Thanks.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Peso loan would will will be small, the growth. We try to push it, but I would say that peso loan will be will be small, very small growth in real terms, and most of the growth will come from the from the commercial from the dollar side, I would say, yes.
Lisandro Guevara
Perfect. Thanks.
Operator
The next question is from Ignacio Izniechowski from Invertir en Bolsa.
Ignacio Sniechowski
Hi, good morning. Thank you, Gonzalo, Pablo, and the team, for taking my question.
I have two questions, quick questions, focusing on the bank. Given the 38.8% in the efficiency ratio that reported in the second quarter, I wanted to know, where do you see this metric by the end of 2026?
Also, what is the long-term figure that you have in mind once the synergies with Galicia Mas and the other initiatives that you are currently feeling that it's like a headcount and branch reduction are completed?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
I would say that for for 2026, something below 40% for the bank. I would say try to keep this this like 39, around 39%.
I think that that would be for the rest of the year. Talking in the long term, of course, the idea is every reduction will will cost more, every point, because, yeah, we will continue to do efficiencies, but if Argentina continues in this path, with margins will go down also.
Our I would say that our our if I can to say a longer-term target, I would I would I would like to be between 37 and 38%. Below anything below 40% for us is good.
We will try to aim 37-38%, but we need to see how fast the margins also go down. For us, really, it's very important to continue pursuing cost reductions, and we have now a lot of work streams that implies AI in the, know-your-customer arena, in the call center and contact contacts teams arena, in order to continue reducing costs.
Again, that will also go pari passu with the margin reduction in the future. I would say that aiming around 37%, but if we can stay below 40% in the longer run, I think that's a that for us is a is a good achieve.
Ignacio Sniechowski
Okay. Thank you.
The second question, just quickly, I know it's some kind of very difficult to answer this, but do you anticipate any regulatory improvements? I'm I'm specifically regarding the tax component on lending rates, or potential reductions in reserve requirements?
I know this this is something that it's very difficult to to answer because it implies going on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy, but I'm sure you have it in the agenda, and I wanted to know your view on this for the medium and long term.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
It's something that, yeah, talking about regulatory reserves, for example, it's something that I believe is not in the agenda now of the Central Bank. Of course, talking about longer term, when Argentina, continues to grow it it loans to GDP and starts to grow significantly the lending, I think that is something that may come back as an agenda for Central Bank.
Don't see this in the longer medium in the short-medium term. Of course, when if Argentina goes to that that growth, significant growth in lending, we are all all all expecting, well, that's that can come back because it may be needed.
Talking about tax, I think that, yeah, I think that the the the agenda of of the government is to reduce to reduce taxes. I think that part of the reduction of the of the cost of credit for customers is taxes.
As for example, VAT, I think there is one one of the That doesn't affect us as a bank, no? It will affect customers, and maybe helps to increase lending.
I think VAT to consumers in the lending to consumers, we are one of the few countries in the world that charge VAT to to interest, and it's something that that is coming back in the discussion because of of the high interest rates in the market, etc. Something that at some point may be addressed to reduce, all the tax burden that that the the tax has that, sorry, the lending has in order to reduce the cost for customers.
I see more that reduction of cost for customers than a benefit to us. We still have, again, as the the the the city taxes and the and the turnover tax from from cities and from provinces, which is a very high burden that we all we all have.
Ignacio Sniechowski
That's
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
something that we are, as as among the the banking associations, talking to to to Central Bank, to everyone, raising the concern, because as margins continue to go down, those cost will need to go down. There is no way that we can continue affording those costs.
It's part of what we call the Argentine cost. That's something that, with with time, I think that they will need to go down.
I don't know when, but it's something that I think that if Argentina continues stabilizing, those those high taxes would should go down and will go down. It's something that that we we will be also, working with the other banks to always raise that on the table.
As this this talking about regulatory things, or whatever, this morning the the government announced, new new financing for mortgages. It's something very new.
We are still analyzing it. It's, time deposits from 1 to 5 years to banks in in in UVA, in inflation-linked time deposits to lend mortgages with a specific matters interest rate cap for for customers, and a size to be for first housing only.
I think it's a very very good news that the government It's very welcome that the government is thinking in means to help mortgages to grow and and to to help how to solve the problem that Argentina doesn't have a capital market, a developed capital market that can, buy securitization of mortgages, etc., something we can we have discussed in prior calls. Which is good for the financial system and mainly for the country.
As as mortgages help to develop economies, families, etc. Again, I cannot talk about the specifics of the program because it was announced this morning, we need to analyze it.
In general, these initiatives, of course, are is a good news and a good signal that that that that is well received by us.
Ignacio Sniechowski
Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question comes from Federico Cavalleri from Adcap.
Federico Cabelli
Hello, team. Thanks for taking my question.
We've seen a strong growth in dollar loans, and you mentioned that you aim for growth in the second half of the year. I wanted to ask you about the other announcement, the other Caputo's announcement, which allows lending dollar deposits to companies without dollar revenues.
I wanted to ask you if you if you plan on growing in this segment as well.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Yeah. It's for us, it doesn't change much because we already had availability of of commercial paper, dollar commercial paper issued, and we, before this announcement, we could lend to non-dollar producers with those commercial papers.
We had availability. For us, it doesn't bring additional it brings extra availability, but we already had it.
It doesn't change a lot. We we go very careful on that, name by name.
We have been doing that with a few big names, but it's something that will, we think, will continue to go very carefully, because again, you know that the then lending in dollars in Argentina could be always a it brings an additional risk of potential devaluations, etc. We'll continue as we have been done in the past, analyzing name by name, but we don't expect a a a huge growth because of of this, because again, it's something that we go very carefully, just for a matter of prudence in our our balance.
Federico Cabelli
Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
The question-and-answer session is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Pablo Firvida for the company's final remarks.
Pablo Firvida
Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Good morning. Bye-bye.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro
Good morning. Bye.
Operator
Grupo Financiero Galicia conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.
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