3M Company

3M Company

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Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 20, 2026

Operator

As a reminder, this call is being recorded Tuesday, October 20th, 2026. I would now like to turn the call over to Chinmay Trivedi, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis at 3M.

Chinmay Trivedi (Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis):

Chinmay Trivedi

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our quarterly earnings conference call.

With me today are Bill Brown, 3M's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Anurag Maheshwari, 3M's Chief Financial Officer. Bill and Anurag will make some formal comments, then we will take your questions.

Please note that today's earnings release and slide presentation accompanying this call are posted on the homepage of our Investor Relations website at 3m.com. Please turn to slide 2, and take a moment to read the forward-looking statements.

During today's conference call, we'll be making certain predictive statements that reflect our current views about 3M's future performance and financial results. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Item 1A of our most recent Form 10-Q lists some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions. Please note, throughout today's presentation, we'll be making references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures can be found in the attachments to today's press release. With that, please turn to slide 3, and I will hand the call off to Bill.

Bill?

Bill Brown

Thank you, Chinmay, and good morning, everyone. We delivered strong performance in Q3, including organic growth of 3.3%, operating margin of 26.2%, up 110 basis points, earnings per share of $2.50, up 12%, and free cash flow of $1.2 billion.

We returned $600 million to shareholders in the quarter, including $400 million in dividends and $200 million of share repurchases. These results include Madison Fire and Rescue, which is now fully consolidated into our financial reporting, and reflect a change in acquisition amortization reporting.

Our updated guidance for the year incorporates both items, and Anurag will provide additional details later in the call. Based on our Q3 performance and continued strong order trends, we remain confident in achieving organic growth of greater than 3.5% this year.

The progress we're delivering reflects the disciplined execution of the strategy we've been implementing over the last two years. As we've discussed, our value creation framework is centered around three phases: building the foundation, driving transformation, and accelerating performance.

Our results today are clear evidence that we're making progress across all three. We're strengthening the foundation of the company and rebuilding critical capabilities to position 3M for long-term success.

We've invested in sales force effectiveness and AI-enabled tools. We've sharpened our focus on priority verticals where we can win and improved how we allocate R&D resources.

Operationally, we're delivering on our goals to improve productivity, quality, and supply chain performance. In the quarter, we launched 87 new products, up 24%, and we're on track to exceed our target of 350 this year.

Year-to-date, five-year new product sales are up 34% versus last year to nearly $3 billion, resulting in new product vitality in the mid-teens from a low of 11% in 2024. Cross-selling is also gaining traction, with $140 million in wins booked to date and another $120 million in the pipeline, well ahead of our original $100 million, three-year goal.

In today's higher inflation environment, our price execution has been particularly strong and fully offsets material and oil cost pressures. Across our manufacturing and supply chain network, productivity improvements including procurement savings, higher asset utilization from increased throughput and lower downtime, and improved quality drove gross margins up 230 basis points year-over-year.

Cost of poor quality improved by 40 basis points, and overall equipment effectiveness improved by 20 basis points. We continue to see meaningful opportunities to further simplify and standardize, reshape the portfolio, reduce risk, and improve enterprise resilience and predictability.

We've closed 16 manufacturing sites and distribution centers year-to-date, and are taking action on 10 more over the next 12 months, supporting further gross margin improvement beyond 2027. The Madison Fire and Rescue acquisition, which is now combined with our SCBA business and reported as a separate division within SIBG, is off to a good start.

The JV delivered high single-digit pro forma growth and operating margins ahead of our deal model and 3M overall, and integration is well underway to capture synergies across distribution, international expansion, and operational performance. We continue our efforts to address litigation risk, and are actively working with a court-appointed mediator for the AFFF personal injury MDL, and more information is available in our quarterly filing.

Moving to slide 4, I'll provide a bit more color on our end-market performance. We continue to see strong momentum in general industrial and safety, with second-half growth accelerating to high single digits, above our prior expectations.

In electronics, we're seeing increasing strength in semiconductors and data centers, which is partially offsetting a weaker consumer electronics market, especially in LCD displays. Auto OE and aftermarket is trending in line with prior expectations, with a modest improvement from down low single digits in the first half to about flat in the second, and with OE a bit softer and aftermarket a bit better.

The consumer business, which contributes about 20% of sales, improved sequentially to about flat in the second half as modest improvement in consumer POS spending is partially offset by channel inventory adjustments at a few specific retailers. Net-net, we still see sales accelerating in the second half and our full year above 3.5% organic.

Turning to slide 5, over the medium to long term, accelerating innovation across our frontier verticals, including aerospace, data centers, and others, will be an important driver of growth. Space materials is a great example of how we can take differentiated 3M technologies and extend them into entirely new markets.

As shown on the left side of the slide, we're combining our capabilities in films, adhesives, and others to solve light, thermal, energy, and weight challenges across multiple parts of a spacecraft, from the satellite chassis to solar arrays. Our current pipeline supports opportunities from low Earth to geosynchronous orbits and across a range of commercial and government customers.

In Q3, we launched a lightweight reflective film for a commercial constellation to reduce light scattering toward Earth and address light pollution concerns. We plan to launch another product in Q4 to provide a moisture-resistant barrier for solar panels.

We have more than 10 other projects in development or in pre-pipeline stage that will follow in the next few years. On the right side of the slide, there's been a lot of interest in expanded beam optics and the opportunity ahead of us.

In light of an 8-K filing and press release last evening, I wanted to take a minute to highlight the progress we're making. As a reminder, EBO's patented ferrule technology enables faster installation, greater durability, and higher density optical connections for AI infrastructure.

The technology is particularly valuable in scale-out and scale-across applications, including optical backplanes, where connectors at the back of a server rack can be difficult to access, install, and maintain. We previously announced a partnership and deployment with Microsoft, and said we were also engaged in proof-of-concept work with five additional global hyperscalers, one of whom was Amazon Web Services.

Last evening, we filed an 8-K stating we issued a warrant to Amazon to purchase up to 3.2 million shares, or approximately 0.6% of 3M common stock, based upon the achievement of $6 billion in cumulative sales of optical connectivity and other data-center-related products over the next seven years, and other event-based milestones. We also announced that we signed a contract manufacturing agreement with Genius Electronic Optical Company, or GSEO, and acquired a 4.7% stake in the company in a private placement to cement our strategic partnership.

GSEO is a credible and proven supplier of premium consumer device components, and they will help us rapidly advance technology development and scale EBO manufacturing on top of our internal capacity expansion plans. As we previously said, success in this space requires building a robust ecosystem of partners.

We're actively supporting industry standardization through the EBO multi-source agreement, which started with 17 members and is now up to 63. This MSA brings together hyperscalers, connectivity providers, and chip designers under a common framework to establish industry standards and certify practitioners.

EBO was highlighted by many of these ecosystem partners at last week's Open Compute Project Global Summit, including by one other hyperscaler demonstrating EBO in a next-gen rack design running live traffic, and it was headlined in a recent article by SemiAnalysis, a well-respected trade journal. We believe the combination of industry collaboration through the MSA, growing ecosystem adoption, and differentiated 3M know-how positions us well to benefit as EBO becomes a larger part of next-generation AI infrastructure.

Overall, we've made meaningful progress in reinvigorating our innovation engine over the last two years. Success requires speed and precise execution, and we're building a stronger, faster, more innovative, and more resilient 3M.

As this company-wide effort evolves, I'm confident it will translate into faster growth, higher margins, and stronger free cash flow over time. With that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to share the details of the quarter.

Anurag?

Anurag Maheshwari

Thank you, Bill. Turning to slide 6, we delivered another strong quarter across all financial metrics: solid organic growth, 110 basis points of margin expansion, double-digit earnings growth, and robust free cash flow, all reflecting execution against our strategic priorities.

Starting with the top line, we delivered organic sales growth of 3.3%, driven by General Industrial and Safety, both of which performed better than expected on successful execution of our commercial excellence initiatives, including pricing. We also saw continued strong double-digit growth in semiconductors and data centers as we gained traction from new product launches and good customer positioning.

Together, these more than offset a weaker consumer electronics market. Notably, the order trend that we have seen through the year continues, and grew high single digits in the quarter, led by industrials, safety, data centers, semiconductors, and aerospace.

This resulted in backlog growth of high teens over last year, positioning us well for the fourth quarter. By geography, US and Canada grew approximately 7%, the highest we have seen since the pandemic.

Industrials grew double digits as we executed well on pricing, cross-selling, and sales effectiveness in a constructive market, which more than offset a soft consumer market. Latin America grew high single digits, with broad-based growth across all three businesses.

It was encouraging to see Europe grow for a second consecutive quarter, despite a soft auto market. In Asia, we had positive growth and saw another double-digit quarter in India as we increased penetration in automotive, industrial, and a growing consumer market.

Overall, we grew in all regions except China, which was down high single digits on weak consumer electronics demand. As Bill mentioned, following the Madison acquisition, starting this quarter, we now exclude the amortization of intangibles from adjusted results to better reflect the underlying performance of the business.

Historical recasted financials for 2025 and first half 2026 are shown on slide 13, and as you can see, have an impact of about 40 basis points to margin rate and 4 cents to EPS per quarter. For Q3, adjusted operating margin was 26.2%, up 110 basis points, with the three business groups up 140 basis points, partially offset by 30 basis points from corporate as expected.

Operating profit increased $140 million, with $260 million from sales growth and productivity, particularly in supply chain, partially offset by about $120 million of stranded costs and investments. The 27 cents of EPS growth was driven by 22 cents of operating profit growth and 5 cents of below-the-line items, including a lower share count net of a higher tax rate, resulting in adjusted EPS of $2.50, up 12% year-on-year.

Q3 GAAP EPS was $2.63, up 70% year-over-year. This included the impact of costs from ongoing transformation actions, exit of certain PFAS manufacturing assets, and gain from change in value of our Solventum ownership.

Free cash flow was $1.2 billion in the quarter, as higher earnings were offset by working capital timing, which we expect to reverse in the fourth quarter. Turning to the next slide, I will provide a quick overview of our growth performance for each business group.

Safety and Industrial delivered another standout quarter, with 7% organic sales growth, driven by the continued expansion of commercial excellence initiatives and the ramp-up of new products. Electrical Markets Division continued to grow double digits as they deepened penetration with key customers in the data center market.

Safety, industrial adhesives, abrasives, and industrial specialties collectively grew high single digits, driven by targeted commercial initiatives to reduce customer churn, expand sales coverage, increase sales effectiveness, and drive cross-selling. Though repair claims market remains soft, auto aftermarket grew mid-single digits, driven by the new products and wins with large multishop operators.

Year-to-date, SIBG sales are up 6.1%, and importantly, orders and backlog are up double digits, giving us good visibility into the fourth quarter. Turning to Transportation and Electronics, third-quarter sales grew 0.5% due to weaker-than-expected consumer electronics, which was down mid-teens.

Outside of consumer electronics, the business grew about 5% across semiconductors, aerospace, commercial branding, and auto. In addition to data center and semiconductor, aerospace grew double digits, driven by continued strength in defense, sustained civil aviation build rates, and growing demand for space films.

Commercial branding continued its first-half momentum, growing mid-single digits, driven by graphics and personal auto demand, while auto was down mid-single digits on softer builds. Despite the weak consumer electronics and auto market for the first nine months, TEBG sales grew 2.1%, with orders up high single digits and backlog up double digits, supporting acceleration in the fourth quarter.

SIBG and TEBG, which together represent 80% of our business, delivered about 4% growth in the quarter and 4.5% year-to-date. Finally, Consumer was flat in the quarter, improving sequentially as the rate of decline in the US moderated, while international continued to grow mid-single digits.

US point of sale grew over 2% through the quarter, but continued inventory adjustments at a few large retailers resulted in US sell-in being down low single digit. As retailer inventory stabilized and POS continues to show positive momentum on the back of NPI and retailer-specific programs, we expect the growth trend to improve in the fourth quarter.

Overall, we are delivering on our commitment with strong year-to-date results, including organic sales growth of 3.3%, operating margin expansion of 60 basis points to 25.2%, earnings growth of 12%, and free cash flow of $3.1 billion. Year-to-date, we returned $4.4 billion to shareholders, including $1.2 billion in dividends and $3.2 billion in share repurchases.

Please turn to slide 8 for an update on our 2026 guidance. Order momentum, a healthy backlog, and easier comparisons give us confidence in organic growth of just over 4% in the fourth quarter, keeping us on track for more than 3.5% for the full year.

On the back of strong year-to-date performance, continued momentum, and focus on productivity, we are raising our earnings guidance from a range of $8.95 to $9.10 on the new basis to a range of $9.10 to $9.15, or 10 cents above the midpoint, resulting in growth between 11% and 12% for the year. On oil, we now estimate the inflation impact at $185 million, up from the $150 to $175 million range we communicated in July.

We expect to fully offset the increase through disciplined execution of the pricing actions we implemented in the second quarter. While this pass-through is dollar neutral, it dilutes margin rate by about 20 basis points, which we will mitigate through better productivity.

For the year, we expect margin of about 24.6% on the new basis, in line with our prior expectations. Free cash flow remains at approximately $4.8 billion and adjusted tax rate at about 20%.

Turning to slide 9, we will provide formal 2027 guidance in January, but our framework to drive profitable growth remains consistent and are confident that we will exceed all of our Investor Day targets. We expect good growth in line with our second-half exit rate, with more contribution coming from new product launches as we sustain commercial excellence, including pricing discipline.

Alongside growth, we will continue to drive productivity largely from supply chain and transformation actions as we more than offset investments and stranded costs, resulting in margin rates exceeding our Investor Day target of 25.4% on the new basis. For EPS, we expect operational performance to be the primary driver of earnings growth, like this year.

Non-operational performance will be influenced by changes in interest rates and FX, while the tax rate should remain stable and share buybacks will continue to be accretive. Finally, we expect robust free cash flow driven by earnings growth and working capital improvements, and will continue disciplined capital deployment.

Having returned $9.3 billion since the start of 2025, we are well on our way to exceeding the $10 billion target. Before we open the call for questions, I would like to thank the 3M team for their commitment, resilience, and responsiveness to drive value to all our stakeholders.

Our performance to date and opportunities ahead provide us with increased confidence in delivering on our updated 2026 guidance and exceeding the commitments we laid out at Investor Day. With that, let's open the call for questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to register a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw, please press star two.

If you are using a speakerphone, please lift up your handset before entering your request. Please limit your participation to one question and one follow-up.

Our first question today comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.

Scott Davis

Hey, good morning, guys.

Anurag Maheshwari

Morning, Scott.

Scott Davis

I want to ask about Amazon in a second. Before I do that, you mentioned price several times and is it easier to get because inflation is so well telegraphed that the customer is extraordinarily well aware of what's going on out there, or is it the new product introduction side of it that is kind of driving that?

You still seem to be a little bit behind PPI, do you see an acceleration there?

Bill Brown

Scott, good question. It is pretty well publicized in the marketplace around what's happening in oil and gas prices and general inflation.

I think that's well covered, but I think our ability to drive price right now is partly from the new products. I think, importantly, it's from just significantly better responsiveness, service, delivery rates, product availability that we're delivering to our customers, and I think that's a very important part of it.

I wouldn't discount that we're being, I'd say, a bit more aggressive here on price, holding our ground on this one. I think all of those things come together and what's driving price.

We'll see ourselves for the year to be slightly above a point and a half. We were saying last time about 1.5%.

It will be a little bit better than that because oil price continues to come up. Back half of the year will be slightly above 2.

Front half was 1. We're doing better, we're executing well on price, recovering material and oil cost inflation, and we feel pretty good about the trajectory we're on right now on pricing.

Scott Davis

That's helpful, Bill. Look, it wasn't clear to me in the 8-K what Amazon is, we know the investment they're making, but are they helping to pay for capacity, or take-or-pay contracts, anything that kind of locks them in to de-risking a bit of your capacity adds?

Bill Brown

Look, it's a very, very important step we've taken here with Amazon. There's no disclosure right now on other parts of the commercial agreement, but it's been in the works for some time.

It's a very important strategic commercial relationship. I do believe it's a validation of the technology.

It's a important milestone in this broader relationship that we've had with Amazon. It's very clear in the agreement that it's for optical connectivity, EBO, and other data-center-related products.

They do have faith in our broad material science capabilities for acoustics, vibration, thermal, kind of things inside the data centers, and so we're very excited about where we happen to be. As you'd note, there's at least something in the 8-K.

It's cumulative $6 billion is where the warrant vests over seven years. It's in increments.

It's not ratable. It'll start to ramp towards the back end of next year is what our expectation happens to be, and become more meaningful as we get into '28, but as far as we sit here today, that's as far as I think we'll be able to disclose as this continues to ramp.

What's important right now is we execute well, we scale well here with Amazon, we build out the ecosystem, which they and other hyperscalers believe is very important. A very important step is combining that with the GSEO announcement where we have solidified the supply side, the ramp-up we expect to get to support Amazon and other hyperscalers.

Collectively, we think it's a very important milestone that we're at today on EBO.

Scott Davis

Makes sense. Thank you.

Best of luck, guys. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Amit Mehrotra

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody.

Bill, the trajectory of organic growth has been good, plus 1% in '24, plus 2% in '25, plus 3.5% at least this year. You're making a lot of progress on pricing and NPI.

Now you're maybe leaning into some growth verticals through these sort of creative solutions, which is fantastic. I guess the question that everybody is asking is, where do you think this ultimately goes to from a through-cycle growth perspective, because you've got a consumer business that's a little bit more difficult, T&E is obviously a little bit difficult.

Maybe just talk about not just '27, but if you want to talk about '27 great, but sort of where you think structurally you're taking the growth algorithm for this business over the next one, two, three years.

Bill Brown

Amit, you went through some of the numbers. I appreciate you doing that and recalling the trajectory we're on.

It's a pretty broad portfolio. Not everything kind of flows positively every quarter, but you've laid out appropriately the steps that we're taking to drive organic growth in the company, something I think we struggled to do over time.

It comes back to what we're focused on very originally was around reinventing innovation and driving new products to the marketplace, and we continue to progress that very, very well and is becoming more impactful. We're clearly driving a lot of commercial excellence activities, improving our capability at the front line, building a better relationship with our channel partners, more cross-selling, better performance so we have less churn, pricing.

All these things come together to kind of make this machine run better, and you went through the numbers. We'll end the back half of the year, we'll be close to 4%.

Q4 will be touching or just over 4%. As we look into '27, we continue to see growth momentum here.

There are some economic tailwinds here on the industrial side. We feel pretty good about that.

More importantly, this is a self-help story, we're showing that we can grow organically even in a choppy macro environment and drive margin expansion quite substantially. The combination of what we're trying to do, I think, is what's really turning this 3M company around, and I'm very, very excited about what the future holds here.

Amit Mehrotra

Thank you, Bill. Then Anurag, if I could just have a follow-up, because if we go back to Investor Day, there might be sort of $400 to $500 million of extra costs that you guys have incurred since Investor Day, whether it's tariffs or oil inputs, and here we are, not only are you offsetting that with price, but there's obviously clearly productivity there, because you're raising the margin guidance for longer term, next year.

Can you just talk about productivity, because the '27 framing is helpful, but it's a little bit vague relative to what you did last year. Are we going to get $500-$600 million more of net productivity next year?

Do you still expect 35% incremental margins on the growth you expect to achieve? Maybe fill in some of that color for us, please.

Anurag Maheshwari

Okay. Thanks, Amit, and you're absolutely correct.

At the Investor Day, what we laid out was that we had about $300 million of stranded costs at that point in time. Since then, we've had tariffs of about $280 million, we have oil now which is at $185 million.

We obviously were able to offset all of that plus more, which is why we are ahead in terms of our margin expansion so far, and will be next year as well. As Bill mentioned, we're going to exit the year close to about 4% in terms of organic growth, and as we go into next year, that will accelerate because of new products, commercial excellence, and pricing, which we've done a very good job this year and continue to kind of sustain that next year and drive for more pricing to offset oil.

With the volume growth on the margin side, we have good incrementals. Historically, we said it's between 30% to 40%.

I think we are more closer to the 40% right now in incrementals, given the progress that we've made over the past couple of years. I'll combine that with productivity on both supply chain as well as some of the transformation actions we are taking, and it should continue at the same rate as it has over the past couple of years.

While we drive volume with high incrementals, productivity will much more than offset the step-up in investments and stranded costs. Expect good margin expansion as we go into next year and be very confident to be ahead of the 25.4% the new Investor Day target, despite all the other headwinds we had.

Feeling pretty confident.

Amit Mehrotra

Got it. Great.

Thank you very much. Appreciate it, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Joe O'Dea

Hi, good morning. I wanted to start on just sizing of EBO.

Can you talk a little bit about where you expect the revenue to be this year, how much revenue your current capacity can support, and then with the manufacturing collaboration that you've announced, how much revenue all together you think that will be able to support?

Bill Brown

Joe, for this year, EBO is in the $40 million range, plus or minus. We've got another quarter to go here.

We do expect that to ramp considerably next year, likely will double, could be maybe a little bit better than that depending upon progress through the year. Internally, we have doubled our manufacturing capacity, we'll be north of, say, 10 million ferrules a year.

It'll be a little bit better than that, and we expect to increase that over time. The contract manufacturing agreement with GSEO, given their size and what they currently do for consumer devices and similar spaces, they could do potentially multiples of that per month.

I believe, if we scale them as we know we will over the course of the fourth quarter into early next year, that we will see our ability to actually satisfy the market demand. Hopefully, it's not a capacity issue.

It becomes more in comfort of hyperscalers, it's developing the ecosystem, and I just want to reiterate one of the key factors here is making sure we have diversity of supply, not just from 3M, but other partners here, because that's going to be quite important for hyperscalers to sign on. I believe with GSEO, we'll be in pretty good shape to scale to the market requirements as we see them now.

Then

Joe O'Dea

on just current demand tracking, can you talk a little bit about what you saw over the course of the quarter into this month with respect to acceleration, any caution? There's a tremendous macro focus out there, just given kind of all the headlines and any risks that poses for pause.

Just kind of overall macro, how you've seen demand trends over the course of the last several months.

Bill Brown

Okay. Look, for us, our order rates have been pretty good.

For the quarter, they were up about 7%. We see good backlog going into the fourth quarter.

Year-to-date, a little bit better than 8%. It's better on the industrial side, but generally good order trends, good momentum here as we head into the back end of the year.

From just on a macro perspective, we continue to see the broader industrial markets improving, especially in the US. I know that's part of it is driven by data centers, but it's quite a lot of other factors go behind that.

Auto build rates are likely to be down. They're down modestly in the quarter and likely for the year as well.

We see the consumer electronics space worsening a little bit in the back end of the year, more like down mid-teens from the consumer electronics market. Those are the broader pieces.

IPI is about where we were before, slightly better. Globally, US IPI, US GDP is slightly better from where we thought in July, so that's getting, I'd say, a little bit better.

Those are the key pieces. The US consumer is sort of still a little bit soft, although what I would say is we continue to see good POS growth, which is sell-out for us.

It's north of 2% growth on POS, which is pretty good. I feel it's getting at least more stability in the US consumer behavior, if not maybe a little bit of improvement.

Overall, I'd say the industrial is pretty good, kind of mixed outside of that.

Joe O'Dea

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.

Julian Mitchell

Hi, good morning. Maybe I just wanted to follow up on the TEBG revenue outlook, because that's where you've seen I suppose the most volatility in recent quarters, strong growth Q2, it evaporated in Q3, you're talking about a reacceleration in the fourth quarter despite a worsening consumer electronics market backdrop, I think you said down mid-teens.

Please sort of flesh out a little bit the confidence in that TEBG acceleration, and is it something where it's just month-to-month that the numbers are kind of swinging around in that business?

Anurag Maheshwari

Sure. As we exited the third quarter, Julian, the backlog in TBG was up quite double digits.

That gives us good visibility as we go into the fourth quarter. You are correct about the consumer electronics being pretty consistent between third and fourth quarter.

Where we do see is the good backlog getting converted, plus continued strength in the aerospace, defense, the semiconductor and data center, which continues to accelerate in the fourth quarter, plus all the commercial excellence that we are driving in the commercial branding business. This along with auto, we've had a couple of good wins in auto as well that kind of coming through.

I think gives us confidence that we will accelerate the growth in the fourth quarter from third quarter in TBG.

Julian Mitchell

Thanks very much. Then just my follow-up, I think, Anurag and Bill, your tone on the margin expansion is very confident, I think looking at slide 9 and you're talking about very likely exceeding that 80 basis points of sort of margin expansion next year that's guided on that slide 9, and that's even with what's going on with cost inflation and everything else.

I suppose is the sense that I think right now in the second half, operating margins are growing about 100 basis points year-on-year in the guide. Is your sense that that's a fairly sensible sort of run rate for the time being, given inflation and productivity and stranded costs and so forth?

There's nothing sort of one-time benefiting the degree of margin expansion you're seeing today.

Anurag Maheshwari

Correct. There is no one-time benefit in terms of the margin expansion.

It's all about controlling our cost base, driving productivity across both supply chain and SG&A. Bill did mention in his prepared comments about, gross margin being up 230 basis points, really good work around all the buckets, being the cost of poor quality, which was better by 40 basis points, driving more productivity and automation in the factories that we have today and even in this environment, driving procurement savings.

I think it's all fundamental drivers for in terms of expanding our margins. As we go into next year next year, you are right, we we said we had $300 million of stranded costs, we had $100 million last year, $150 million this year, incremental $50 million next year.

Just on where we are in the momentum in terms of supply chain and making some structural cost changes, I think we are confident on continuing the productivity into next year as well.

Bill Brown

Julian, I think the thing to keep an eye on is as we keep talking more about transformation and the changes that we're making, a lot of this year has been around G&A. There's been investment to transform the G&A functions.

It's starting to occur within our supply chain network and distribution center network as well. I talked a little bit about some of the changes there.

That's going to be impacting us into '27. Certainly with the factory consolidation, given typically would be 3-, 4-, 5-year payback, that'll start to become more meaningful in 2028.

When you take a step back and think about all of the work that we've done, we've seen gross margins come up from the low 40s to now touching close to the mid-40s, again, up to potentially the high 40s over the next 4, 5 years through some of the transformation that's happening.

Julian Mitchell

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Obin

Hi, yes, good morning. How are you?

Bill Brown

Good morning, Andrew.

Andrew Obin

Just a question on Madison Fire. Now that it's organic, are we putting any accretion into '26 on that, just from modeling perspective?

Do I need to sort of put something in?

Anurag Maheshwari

It's EPS neutral to us. It does grow higher than company average and margin is better, but given the size of the business, it doesn't really move the needle much on the top line.

It obviously comes with operating profit, but there's a step-up in interest because of the leverage and NCI. Overall, it's EPS neutral for this year and next year.

Andrew Obin

Thank you. Just going back to sort of optical and data centers, the headline numbers, I think in the 8-K are pretty robust, and you are saying you have multiple other hyperscalers that you're talking to.

Just order of magnitude relative to what you have, how big could that be? Could you also remind me overall, what was your exposure to data centers last year, and what is it this year?

Thank you. Just

Bill Brown

on that last part, data centers this year will be about $700 million, last year was around $550 million in that range. Part outside, the bigger part would be outside, electrical connections, and then part is inside around optical connections, copper, other parts inside the data center, but most of it was on the outside.

There's been a lot of conversation with really all of the other hyperscalers. Obviously, Amazon is quite substantial in that space, so that's a very important one.

You recall last quarter, we talked about a strategic partnership we announced with Microsoft where they'll be using EBO in Azure data centers. These things are continue to evolve.

Again, we've got to continue to work the ecosystem, build the scale, continue to advance the technology, because each hyperscaler has some uniqueness in their configuration and architecture, there's some work that has to happen there. I think we have very, very good momentum here.

I think this was a very important step that we've taken in the last couple of days with Amazon, and I hope in the coming months, others will follow suit.

Andrew Obin

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Joe Ritchie

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Bill Brown

Morning, Joe.

Joe Ritchie

Bill, I just wanted to follow up on that thread, right? The warrants are a pretty unique structure.

I'm just curious, how did that even come about? Then also, I think you just mentioned that you're hoping that potentially some of the other hyperscalers will follow suit.

Just any other clarification around that would be helpful. Yeah.

Bill Brown

At this conference last week, it's the Open Compute Project, which is in San Jose, I was out on the West Coast and had a chance to walk around the show for a few hours, and there were many other hyperscalers and a lot of ecosystem partners that were there. There's a lot of conversation around EBO, how it can be used, how it can be scaled, how do we manufacture it, partners that want to be part of it.

There's just a ton of activity happening there. It's pretty broad-based, but again, it's evolving.

Each quarter, each month, we're taking steps forward here. We have to keep executing and doing all the things that I've been very carefully talking about around scaling and technology development and ecosystem.

All of these things are critically important. For Amazon, look, I think the warrant conversation is really important because it cements what I believe as a very strong strategic partnership we have with Amazon.

It's an agreement, it's a union, if you will, with Amazon where we both see win-win. We see opportunities to drive shareholder value on both sides.

For us, the warrants are going to be significantly accretive to the company. We thought that was prudent and the right thing to do.

Again, it's about 0.6% of our shares, it's not hugely meaningful, but it's very symbolic in terms of the overall relationship we have with Amazon.

Joe Ritchie

That's helpful, Bill. Then I guess just my following question, Anurag, you gave some parts of the framework for 2027.

Just the expectation for at least the 80 basis points of margin expansion, is there a volume assumptions that you're embedding? I know that you guys typically will kind of model to trends.

Just any expectations on volumes already for next year?

Anurag Maheshwari

Joe, absolutely. As I was mentioning when Amit was asking the question that the volume which typically has been a 30% to 40% incrementals for us is now getting closer to the 40% incremental.

There will be uplift from volume plus productivity, and both of them combined will drive the margin expansion for next year.

Joe Ritchie

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.

Nigel Coe

Great. Thanks for the question.

Just going back to the Amazon agreement. Is this a framework agreement, Bill, that's structured as a minimum the $6 billion is very specific, is that a minimum purchase agreement over that 7-year timeframe?

You seem to indicate that next year is more like $100 million or so of revenues from EBO. Should we then expect that to step up to closer to $1 billion in 2028, just to try to sort of frame expectations here?

Bill Brown

Look, I think we'll sort of get through the quarter here, and then we'll go through next year. Your numbers next year, about right.

It's sort of $80 to $100 million of EBO. Then, again, look, we've got to continue to execute and scale here.

We're not going to size it beyond that. When we talked last time, we said the total addressable market here for EBO is around $2 billion in the '28 time period.

This year, we'll do again, $40 million roughly. This is an important initiative for us.

We're maturing the technology. I think this step with Amazon, last quarter with Microsoft, others that are in conversation gives us a greater right to win in that space.

I feel better about our ability to go after that market. We believe it will continue to grow over time as people get comfortable with EBO, with a contactless, sort of connection device, as opposed to physical contact point-to-point devices today.

I think it's going to continue to evolve, but won't comment on anything beyond '27, but I do believe it's going to continue to grow and grow meaningfully. Otherwise, we wouldn't have talked about where we happen to be with Amazon and the size of the contract manufacturing agreement with GSEO.

All these are very important to us.

Nigel Coe

Yeah. $6 billion divided by seven is close to $1 billion.

That's why I just thought I'd throw that out there. No,

Bill Brown

there's no volume commitments here. We got to earn our right to that.

It's going to happen over time, but that's the number they put out there is what was expected over the course of the next seven years, we think that that's an important target for us.

Nigel Coe

Thanks, Bill. Then, Anurag, maybe for you, the S&I margins were very strong this quarter.

Look at the NCI line, it looks like the contribution from Madison Fire was very strong this quarter. I'm getting to math closer to $100 million $100 million EBITDA contribution, which feels too high, but just wondering what kind of margin Madison Fire is coming in at, and what's a good number for 2027?

Anurag Maheshwari

Yeah. Nigel, I would say the number is not that high as you're sighting it out to be.

We finished the quarter at 26.2% margins. They are a little bit higher than that, I would say, but that does get offset on the NCI line.

Overall, it was EPS neutral to us. The NCI was just a couple of pennies compared to last year, it was not close to that.

As you model into next year, I would say it's again going to be EPS neutral. There'll be incremental $200 million of revenue coming from Madison.

You can assume a margin rate higher than the company, and the offset will be higher interest in NCI. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Tusa

Hey, good morning, guys.

Bill Brown

Hey, good morning, Steve.

Steve Tusa

As far as the fourth quarter is concerned, can you maybe I know couple of these businesses you said are going to accelerate and that's great color, but maybe just how you're seeing things play out versus normal seasonality? Maybe seasonality really is like there is no normal seasonality with the last few years, but how you're thinking about those kind of daily sales trends, and then just lastly on that, the backlog, you mentioned the backlog was up.

Maybe just a little more color. I think you gave some on the second quarter.

Bill Brown

Look, Q4 typically is a is a lighter quarter, but, there's nothing unusual about seasonality here in the fourth quarter. We do we do see it being up with the, 4% that gets would get you to greater than 3.5% for the year, it's got to be more than 4.

Again, it's off of a a bit of a easier compare. The prior year in Q4 was a little bit softer, as opposed to Q3, we had a tougher compare here in Q3, but it gets a little bit better in Q4.

Look, we've had, I just again, very good order trends, the backlog going into the into the quarters up about about 18%, it's high teens percent year-over-year going into the quarter. We have about 25% of the revenue that's in backlog, which is which is pretty good and a little bit better than what we typically see.

Again, based on where we see it today, we feel pretty good about coming in north of 4% and more than 3.5% for the year.

Steve Tusa

Then just one last one on stranded costs. Investments, is it still $375 for the year, and does that step up a little bit?

I know it was up 17 cents in the quarter. Does that step up a bit in the fourth quarter?

Anurag Maheshwari

I believe when you say $375, you meant $225 of investments and $150 million of stranded costs for the year, Steve? Probably what you're referring to,

Steve Tusa

and

Anurag Maheshwari

it is still the same. In the fourth quarter, you'll have probably $125 of that because of the $50 million of stranded costs and $75 million of investment.

No real change from the cadence that we laid out from the beginning of the year, and that stranded costs next year is $50 million. Goes from $150 to

Steve Tusa

$200,

Anurag Maheshwari

incremental $50.

Steve Tusa

Great. Thank you so much.

Really appreciate it.

Bill Brown

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Andy Kaplowitz

Good morning, everyone.

Bill Brown

Morning, Andy.

Andy Kaplowitz

Bill, can you give a little more of an update on your overall progress in innovations we start thinking about '27? I think you previously have mentioned your cycle time of innovation targeted is at least 20% better, but can you use tools such as AI to push greater innovation much faster and with better margin?

I think you'll do greater than 350 new products, you just said, but you've also said that 3M used to do 700, 800 per year. Can you get back to those levels faster than you thought and with greater improvement in design to cost?

Look,

Bill Brown

first of all, yeah, I'm very pleased with what's happening right now on NPI, innovation. We're accelerating.

I gave some of the numbers here, about 87 in the quarter, up about 24%. For the year, we'll be at 350 or more, so that would be up 23% year-over-year.

Early last year at the Investor Day, we said we would be 1,000 products over three years, and we should be above that with what my expectation would be. I think what's important is we've seen the funnel remain very, very healthy, we're bringing more projects into the funnel, into our development pipeline, than we're launching.

I think that's remains very, very encouraging. Cycle time has been pretty good, actually.

We will be down 20%. It'll move around a little bit, but I think we've already proven that so far.

As we bring more Class 4s, Class 5s into the funnel, which will drive more incremental growth over time, they're a bit of a longer development cycle, so that could push things a little bit in the other direction. The cycle time continues to come down, our on-time launch attainment remains around 80%, 81%, so that's all very, very good.

As you mentioned about AI, look, I do believe that this is going to be a meaningful way for us to accelerate innovation. Again, from 20% compression on cycle time, just by bringing AI in, you're ideating faster, you're eliminating some of the steps of developing and making prototypes in labs, getting out to a factory.

Instead of doing physical prototypes, you can do virtual modeling and simulation. All those opportunities are happening now, so that can further compress cycle time.

What that means is we should be accelerating the numbers of new product launches without accelerating the cost to go and make that happen. I'm very encouraged, we're pushing very hard on this.

A lot of the effort to date has been codifying this vast trove of information that resides at 3M in terms of all of the patent information, all the technical papers, all the material specs, safety sheets, all of this process informatics, all the how you make it, it all needs to be codified. That's now being done, and when you have all that and you lay AI on top of that, it can really accelerate our journey in bringing new products to market.

I'm encouraged about the progress we're making here, and, to your point, I think there's a great opportunity to accelerate that into '27 and beyond.

Andy Kaplowitz

Helpful, Bill. Maybe just delving a little bit more into consumer.

I know you said point of sales continues to improve, but consumer, as has been a bit slow to turn. Do you see a more definitive turn coming in that business, or can increase self-help drive a more definitive turn?

You mentioned still some select retail destocking, maybe even a little more color on what you're seeing there.

Bill Brown

Consumer, we expect will turn slightly positive in the back end of the year, in the fourth quarter of the year. Of course, we thought Q3 was going to be positive, it didn't happen, but we're on the right trajectory here.

It's not necessarily going to be a big driver of growth for the company given its size and where we expect it to be in the fourth quarter. The trends are positive.

POS was kind of basically up a little bit in Q1, improved a bit more in Q2 around 2%, 2.2%, a little bit better in Q3. POS has been pretty good.

What happened over the course of this year is the inventory in the channel, especially with a couple of retailers, has been pulled down a little bit, about a half a week in Q3, was about a half a week in Q2. We find that to be stabilizing here a little bit going into the fourth quarter, but again, it's hard to predict what some of these retailers are going to do.

When we take a step back and look at the way the portfolio is evolving, we see it to be slightly better in Q4, but again, not a big meaningful driver for the growth as a company. One of the things that's interesting is international has been pretty good.

Even though the business is mostly US, about 70%, but international for us has been up mid-single digits, and the trends there continue to be pretty strong. I think if we put all together, US can improve and international holds in at mid-single digits, we can actually be positive in the fourth quarter.

Andy Kaplowitz

Appreciate all the color.

Operator

We'll go next to Varun Govindaraj with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Varun Govindaraj

Morning, everyone. Thanks for the question.

Quick one from my end. You've got a leadership change on the R&D side with John retiring and Tushar coming in.

How are you sort of driving continuity in the R&D strategy with that change, just because these kinds of changes during transformations are tricky, curious how you're handling it.

Bill Brown

Varun, thanks for the question. Look, John was here for a number of years, close to 30, and was CTO for quite a long time, and was a fantastic partner to be in reestablishing, reinvigorating innovation.

Tushar, who's been with the company for 25 years, he's PhD, he's got a lot of experience both running a business as well as developing technology, more than 40 patents to his name. I like the combination.

He's been running the IATD business within SIBG for the last number of years, leaning forward on AI, digital tools, and I think that combination is going to be very important. As I said, having somebody that knows the players internally, know the technology, and importantly, knows our customers, that combination, I think, will drive good continuity in what we're trying to do on innovation at 3M.

Varun Govindaraj

Super helpful. Thanks for the color.

Then just as a quick follow-up, we've talked a lot about EBO sizing, but you've also flagged stuff like the Nextel ceramic fibers, space got a lot of real estate in today's presentation. Any rough sense of how accretive that could be either next year or do we sort of expect that to come in more 2028 onwards?

Bill Brown

No, we think '27 will be a step-up on that. It's a couple of different things.

We continue to see very good growth in our Electrical Markets Division with connectors, medium voltage connection coming into data centers. That has been a good grower for us all year, double digit, and we can see that continuing into next year.

There's a lot of other different technologies, you point out Nextel, which goes into a couple of different behind-the-meter type solutions outside of data center, and we continue to have momentum there. We're expanding capacity to meet the demand of that space.

I think that could be a step-up into '27 and perhaps even better than that in 2028. I think very good momentum both inside as well as outside the data center, Varun.

Varun Govindaraj

Right. Appreciate it.

All the best for the rest of the year.

Bill Brown

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brandon Knutson with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Brandon Knutson

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

You guys have been highlighting new product introductions. Can you quantify for us a little bit how much better pricing or margins are on these new products, and how high you think you can get that NPVI over time?

Bill Brown

We haven't really talked much about what we do on pricing. Sometimes when you're bringing new products, it's creating a new space, you really don't have a good vantage point.

I think our ability to drive value-based pricing is becoming a lot better. We see it across a number of different product portfolios.

I would say when we bring in new products to the marketplace, once you start to hit volume ramp, we do see those products generally being margin accretive to the company. Prices is an important part of that.

Brandon Knutson

Great. Thank you.

Then last one on just data center, EBO's kind of got a lot of focus. I know the production capacity has been important there, and the GSEO deal will help with that significantly.

What else is key to the ecosystem to drive growth here, and then outside of EBO, how do you see your other DC content scaling?

Bill Brown

We manufacture a ferrule. The fibers have to be terminated into the ferrule, they have to be put into a connector, and then installed in the data center.

All of those pieces are quite important. Hyperscalers design their own architecture, the server manufacturers, have views of where they're taking their product line, how they're shifting from copper to optics over time.

All of those various pieces, you've got to work with that broad set of players to establish EBO and then to grow it. That needs to happen side by side with technology development and scaling.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Nicole DeBlase

Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in, guys.

Maybe I'll just ask one since I know we're at time. Just wanted to dig in a little bit more on consumer electronics and understand what's going on there with respect to memory.

I guess, Bill, when you kind of look out into 2027, are there any green shoots that make you feel like maybe this business could turn positive again, or is that being too optimistic? Thank you.

Bill Brown

No. Consumer electronics, we've seen some pressure here in the quarter.

We'll see some additional pressure going into Q4 as well in consumer electronics. In consumer electronics, we provide films primarily for LCD displays, we do conductives, we do OCA, e-bonding, a lot for phones and tablets, notebooks, etc.

We're primarily a premium player here, 70% of our business roughly is with premium device manufacturers. Overall, I'd say we're tracking kind of in line with or maybe slightly better than the market.

We've seen pressure in two particular areas. One is in LCD displays, that's one area, and the other is with China OEMs, not a very big part of our business, but that market is down quite substantially in the quarter and then for the year.

We're performing very well with premium device manufacturers where performance, where thermal management for AI devices, for foldable devices, for all these new innovations, we're performing very, very well there. As I look forward, that kind of innovation with those premium manufacturers, I think will allow us to return to growth going into next year and beyond.

Nicole DeBlase

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.

Brett Linzey

Hey, good morning, all. Wanted to come back to slide 5, on the space portfolio, was hoping you could put a finer point on the TAM or anything you can share regarding content, opportunity per satellite, and if there's any constellations or customers you're currently specked in on or working on designs.

Bill Brown

We can't talk about the latter part of that, which is who we're getting specked in on, but I was very careful and I said, it's a pretty broad space. It's both LEO and GEO, it's low Earth orbit, geosynchronous orbit, commercial customers, some government contractor working on.

It's a broad opportunity for us, and you can see some of the challenges here. It's around how do you lightweight these satellites, build more capability, bring more protection so there's no light reflecting back to the Earth, removing a glass solar panel as they get bigger they replace it with films that allows the work to be a lot lighter.

There's a lot of capability here. Our content is growing in that space, our innovation I think is quite important.

We expect that that's going to grow over time, which is why we want to keep highlighting it. Don't really want to say too much more than that, but it's a great opportunity for us to grow our business.

Brett Linzey

Appreciate the detail. Just a quick follow-up on the $185 million of oil inflation, you said fully offset by price.

Is there carryover lag into '27 we should be thinking about or modeling, and then how much of that price is go-get versus in the market a little bit more surgical?

Anurag Maheshwari

Yeah. We implemented the price increase starting May this year, and we started seeing the increase in our cost probably a month earlier than that, you should see about some carryover going into next year, definitely on the oil cost piece, and at the same time, should also see the price carryover.

We will be neutral, between price and oil cost for next year. The strategy was actually to be a little bit more surgical.

It wasn't peanut-butter spread across the entire businesses. It was looking at areas where there was either higher cost or where some of the peers were going out with price increases, and that's what the team did.

I think we did a very, very good job by offsetting it. Last year at tariff, we did not offset the entire price increase, but over here, we did, and the discipline has been really, really good.

Brett Linzey

Thanks for the detail.

Anurag Maheshwari

Yep.

Operator

Our last question comes from Jeff Reive with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Jeff Reive

Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in.

I'll keep it to one question, and on the EBO business, if the four hyperscalers currently in proof of concept convert, is the combined internal plus GSEO manufacturing footprint sufficient, or should we expect further capacity investments?

Bill Brown

No, it should be sufficient, but again, it gets back to this diversity of supply. We are scaling internally, but we'll never be able to within 3M to be able to accommodate the market demand.

GSEO has an incredible capacity, but likely over time, there may be other players here, other manufacturing sources, to just give that satisfaction of diversity of supply. We're confident we can ramp with GSEO, but there may be others that we'll have to bring on board over time.

Jeff Reive

Good. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question and answer portion of our conference call.

I will now turn the call back over to Bill Brown for some closing comments.

Bill Brown

Thank you, everybody. I know we're over a little bit, appreciate everybody joining the call today.

I want to thank again all of the 3Mers for delivering another strong quarter of great execution, great value to customers and our shareholders. Proud of what we've achieved together, and I'm excited for what the future holds at 3M.

Thank you all, and have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation, and ask that you please disconnect your line.